minor lines, 9/13/11
Tuesday playoff highlights from the Giants' farm: Jarrett Parker, Charlie Culberson, and Skyler Stromsmoe homered as part of multi-hit performances, and Jackson Williams reached base in all five plate appearances.
AA: Richmond defeated New Hampshire 10-9(winning the first game of the best-of-five league championship series)
Richmond: 2B Charlie Culberson: 3 for 6, HR, SB
Richmond: DH-C Johnny Monell: 2 for 4, BB, SO
Richmond: LF Wendell Fairley: 3 for 4
Richmond: C Jackson Williams: 4 for 4, 2B, BB
Richmond: SS Skyler Stromsmoe: 4 for 4, HR, SH, E
Richmond: SP Chuck Lofgren: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 1 K--1 WP
Richmond: RP Ryan Verdugo: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K--1 WP
Richmond: RP Heath Hembree: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB--1 HR
New Hampshire: SP Chad Jenkins: 3.2 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K--1 HR
With a double, three singles, and a walk, Williams reached base in all five plate appearances before exiting the game for a pinch runner in the 9th inning. Stromsmoe also had four hits, including the crucial two-run, one-out, go-ahead HR in the top of the 9th inning. With Culberson and Fairley also adding three hits each, including Culberson's solo HR in the 1st inning, four Flying Squirrels combined for fourteen hits, although the other five hitters in the lineup combined for just three hits, two of which came from Monell.
Lofgren had an ineffective start, retiring just seven of his fifteen batters while issuing a season-high 5 BB. All four runs scored in the 3rd inning, with three of them scoring after he had departed the game. Verdugo entered to start the 4th inning, and he allowed a run in both the 5th and 6th innings. Hembree blew the save opportunity when he allowed a two-run HR to the first batter he faced in the 8th inning, but he rebounded with a scoreless 9th inning. Jenkings, the Blue Jays' first round selection two years ago, had a rough start with 4 ER in 3.2 IP. He had allowed just 1 ER in 6.0 IP in his previous start against the Squirrels.
A+: San Jose lost to Stockton 4-2
(losing the best-of-five Northern Division Championship Series in four games)
San Jose: CF Gary Brown: 1 for 4, 2B
San Jose: RF Jarrett Parker: 2 for 4, HR, 2 SO
San Jose: 2B Ryan Cavan: 1 for 3, BB, SO
San Jose: 1B Luke Anders: 1 for 2, BB
San Jose: SP Andrew Reichard: 6.0+ IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K--1 HR
Parker had two of the Giants' seven hits. He was the Giants' leading hitter in the post-season with 4 HRs and a .462 AVG. Cavan and Anders also reached base twice. Brown had his fifth double in four post-season games.
Reichard allowed just 1 R through 6.0 IP, facing just three batters over the minimum in that time. He did not retire either batter faced in the 7th inning, and both of those runners subsequently scored, first the tying run and then the go-ahead run.
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Good season, SJ Giants.
I think they’ll probably have the reinforcements they need to be good next year, too.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
I have already printed the schedule for next year and highlighted all the games I want to go to, including when SJ will play in Modesto and Stockton. :)
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
I'd bet you'll get to see Panik and perhaps one of the Crick-Susac-Oropesa triumvirate
I wonder if ToJo will repeat or be bumper up. His performance over the entire year was good-not-great, and he’s young enough to be OK in A ball again. OTOH, he’s been on a tear, and they promoted him last year with poor results, so…
I guess I think he’ll end up in Richmond. But I’m not sure.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
I can’t remember where, but I actually saw a suggestion the other day that the org might promote Panik all the way to AA next year. As he’s not yet 21, that would be aggressive, indeed!
I’m not sure if those other three make up a triumvirate, but I’m guessing Crick’s in XST and SK next year, though I can see both the other two making SJ. I assume Joseph’s year was good enough for the promotion to AA. Heck, he had 100 RBIs!
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Tommy will be in AA, I’m almost positive. I’ll miss him. He’s a super guy, and his power over the second half has been fun to watch. I’ll be interested to see who stays and repeats in SJ. There weren’t that many last year.
Is there a possibility Brown goes to Fresno?
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
It’s certainly possible. I don’t think it will happen but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised. FWIW, I don’t think it’s a very good idea.
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I had my second on-the-field pic taken with Joseph
He really is a friendly kid. I’m rooting hard for him.
"This is almost certainly a terrible idea. But I won't know for certain until I've actually done it." — Jez from Peep Show
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Sep 14, 2011 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey big spender!
Haha, kidding. Tommy’s great. I managed to get a free picture with him after the game Sunday. Glad I got in under the wire. Also, Tommy is responsible for my first meeting with Zack Wheeler. I’ll be forever grateful to him for that. ;-)
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
Actually, I cheated a bit
They never took my validated card for the picture with Ehire, so I just went again before another game.
"This is almost certainly a terrible idea. But I won't know for certain until I've actually done it." — Jez from Peep Show
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Sep 14, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I still have the card from my Cavan picture, too. They’re still good next year, apparently.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
No kidding?
I still have mine. I’ll wait until it’s not too obvious (second month, maybe?) and get a picture with Panik.
"This is almost certainly a terrible idea. But I won't know for certain until I've actually done it." — Jez from Peep Show
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Sep 14, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s possible he never sees Fresno at all. AA to the majors is distinct possibility.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
i’d be surprised if Panik started in any place other than San Jose. I understand that the team likes to have its top prospects in San Jose, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in Richmond eventually (depending on performance, of course.)
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by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 14, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
FWIW
There’s a lot of instructs that will affect these decisions, but:
Brown to Fresno: I’m 80% sure, especially if his presence is why the team decides to stick with Torres in CF next year rather than sign someone to multiple years.
Panik to SJ: This fits every precedent the Giants have set with college first round picks.
Crick to Augusta: This fits most precedents of high round high school pitchers.
Susac to San Jose: Can’t see a solid reason why he wouldn’t beyond age, and that’s not a good reason in this case.
Oropesa to Augusta: He’s not on the same level as Panik and Susac. Augusta will be q huge challenge.
Joseph to Richmond: it wasn’t a great year, but lesser prospects have been promoted on lesser production. I admit I’m very worried about a San Jose mirage having happened here.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Sep 14, 2011 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s hard to imagine they’re going to keep Andres next year the way they’re burying him right now. When was the last time he started a game? He only has 34 PA in the last month. Aside from Buster’s injury, this is the second most depressing story line of the season for me.
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Isn’t he up for arbitration? Anyone know? I can’t imagine they’d risk having to pay him a chunk of change.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, he’s up for arb. However, based on the season he had, I can’t see him getting much above the $2.2M he was paid this year even if he opted for the arb process.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
i’m probably in the minority here but it wouldn’t really bother me if they paid Torres even as much as $3.5 to $3.75 mil just as a show of good faith(prob never happen though)….he deserves another season and i’d consider $1.5 of that to be a reward for 2010…
by repeat_in_2011 on Sep 14, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
He should be relatively cheap. I think that the Giants will take a gamble on him based on the hope the he can find some combination of medecine and other therapy that will get him back to the physical level he was on in 2010.
I think that he’ll sign a contract without opting for the arb process.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I wasn’t really thinking about it from a financial standpoint. They seem to have completely lost faith in him — to the point where they playing 31 year old minor league journeyman Justin Christian in front of him as an audition for next year. It’s really difficult at this point to imagine they’ll put a roster together in which Torres was the nominal CF starter going into ST after watching the last two months.
And it should be understood that in responding to Brute I took it that he meant they’d bring Torres back as the planned starter and then bring Brown up if he faltered. I can see them bring him back as a utility guy, but both Shea and Baggerly recently have mentioned him as a possible non-tender, so somebody in the org is putting that notion out there.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
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You could be right. I certainly don’t have any great clairvoyance in terms of what Sabes is usually thinking. My take is that they haven’t lost faith in Torres, they’ve lost faith in his meds. According to multiple reports, he’s not sleeping and he’s having trouble concentrating. My guess is that the Giants will take a gamble that they can get things straightened out in the offseeason. They know that he’s a well above-average player when his mental and physical issues are under control. As for Christian playing in front of him now, I chalk a lot of that up to Sabes and Boch wanting to see what they have in Christian.
One last thing. Non-tendering and not wanting are not always the same things. I could see the Giants non-tender Torres, and gambling that they can sign him to a palatable salary as a FA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Good summary. I agree with all but the Oropesa prediction.
Oropesa spent a full summer in the Cape Cod League in 2010 (along with Panik and Susac) and was not greatly overmatched (despite a poor batting average). IMO, the level of play in the CCL is at least on the level with the Sally League. Also, he’s surely going to be playing 1B in our system (and there’s nobody besides possibly AnVil that could be blocking him in SJ) , which is such a relatively easy defensive position to play that he wouldn’t be held back because of his glovework. Unless Oropesa looks just horrible in ST, then I expect to see him manning 1B for SJ next year.
BTW, here are the comparitive stats in the 2010 CCL:
Orope: .222/.337/.392/.729 with AB=153, H=34, 2B=5, 3B=0, HR=7, BB=24 (13%), K=52 (28.3%)
Panik: .276/.384/.372/.756 with AB=145, H=40, 2B=8, 3B=0, HR=2, BB=20 (11.4%), K=12 (6.9%)
Susac: .290/.390/.500/.890 with AB=100, H=29, 2B=6, 3B=0, HR=5, BB=13 (10.8%), K=25 (20.8%)
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Thank for those stats.
Compelling numbers from Susac.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t say the Cape Cod League is up to the Sally’s level of play.
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I don’t think that it has the overall depth of the Sally, but I htin that the top teams and players in the CCL can hold their own in the Sally. Most of the top guys in the CCL end up skipping A ball and going straight to A+ when they turn pro.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Right, but when you’re looking at stats (particularly in such SSS) lack of depth in the league can create a huge amount of noise. Although generally, the guys who end up being drafted in the upper rounds do skip A ball fairly often, its true.
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2 more
Josh Osich and Clayton Blackburn are the other 2 guys that I’m very interested in where the Giants end up placing them. I’m guessing that they both end up in Augusta. I think that Osich will really benefit from being under Steve Kline’s tutelage.
BTW, I saw today that the BA top 20 list for the AZL will be coming out on Monday. The only guy that I think has a chance to land on the list this year is Blackburn.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
But do you want Osich to end average?
(That was the meme, right?)
"This is almost certainly a terrible idea. But I won't know for certain until I've actually done it." — Jez from Peep Show
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Sep 14, 2011 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
To put the "good not great" comment in perspective....
The list of players age 19 or younger since 2001 with OPS greater than .780
Mike Trout – Austin Gallagher – Adam Jones – Daric Barton – Billy Butler – Jose Lopez and Chris Snelling.
That’s 6 major leaguers and 1 semi-prospect. 0 catchers.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You’re talking about A+ here, right? Because I can think of others at A ball or lower.
Actually, even staying above A ball, you have to include Mike Stanton’s age 19 season in there, he put up about an .800 OPS splitting his time between A+ (FSL) and AA (SL), both tough hitting environments. Not that Stanton hurts your point any.
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Cal league only
I should have made that clear.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow.
That makes me want to put him higher than pegs.
1. Brown
2. Surkamp
3. JoLTP
4. Pegs
5.
Susac, Crick, Hembree, Sanchez, and Adrianza round out the top 10 in no particular order.
That’s pretty aggressive on Surkamp I think. I think he’s going to be a successful #5 starter (or NL #5 as Keith Law would say) but it’s hard to see much more than that.
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This goes back to a floor/ceiling vs. likelihood of contributing debate
What’s the value of having a successful ML #5 starter as a floor for a prospect? What if his ceiling is a #4 starter? How many wins over how many years?
Surkamp is a great example of a sure thing(TINSTAPP) with consistent, but low value. If he can put up 1-2 Wins/yr for 5-10 years, how does that compare to Panik or Joseph who have the potential to be 4-5 win players, but also have a large chance of fizzling.
Surkamp is already at 1.4 RAR and 0.2 WAR over 3 games. That comes out to 14 RAR and 2 WAR over 30 games. If that’s his floor, I think that’s great value to get from a prospect over 5 cost-controlled years.
Oh but I don’t think it’s at all certain that he’s going to be around for 5 years at all. I’m certainly willing to give him a gimme for his performance thus far in the majors but he’s not at all likely to survive if he doesn’t figure out a way to start missing some bats (he also needs to regain his minor league control though I suppose the first problem is responsible for the second, either way 6/5 needs to not be where his k/bb sits). His performance in his first two games makes it look as though his career could quite easily go the Pat Mischief or Ryan Jensen routes. His minor league numbers give me hope that that won’t be the case. But I think it was Rory Paap who described watching Surkamp try to throw his fb by major league hitters as “harrowing” and that’s the word for it alright.
No I think Eric’s ceiling is still much more certain than his floor.
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On another note I have to say that I really don’t get how pitcher WAR works. This will probably change tomorrow, but I spent a considerable amount of time this morning looking at the Fangraphs pitcher WAR leader board and trying to noodle out what kind of calculation could have considered Lincecum and Brandon McCarhy’s stat lines as being exactly equivalent in value. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
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Fangraphs uses FIP for WAR not ERA.
Lincecum: 3.1 FIP for 205 innings.
McCarthy: 2.7 FIP for 149 innings.
In other words the extra 0.4 FIP for 149 innings is worth almost as much as 3.1 FIP over 56 innings(over replacement).
I’m not sure I believe that, but I can respect the argument. If it were WAA, I’d believe it, but WAR? not quite sure I buy it. 55 innings of replacement level pitching is pretty godawful.
Lincecum: 3.1 FIP for 205 innings.
McCarthy: 2.7 FIP for 149 innings.
In other words the extra 0.4 FIP for 149 innings is worth almost as much as 3.1 FIP over 56 innings(over replacement).
I’m not sure I believe that, but I can respect the argument. If it were WAA, I’d believe it, but WAR? not quite sure I buy it. 55 innings of replacement level pitching is pretty godawful.
I agree with you on all that, but what confused me even more was that (again as of yesterday), their xFIP’s were identical (which I’ll admit I thought was the basis of WAR), which should make the large innings difference a major deciding factor.
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OK, so...
ceiling #4 starter, floor: Ryan Jensen
most likely: #5 starter.
I guess I can see how you might think I’m overvaluing him.
I just don’t see how his 10 K/9 in AA could devolve into a 3 K/9 in the majors. I could see it dropping to 6 or 7 K/9, but 3? I just don’t buy it. I think he’ll post 6-7 K/9 if he gets regular starts next year. That, along with a 2.7 BB/9 (AA and majors line), and AT&T and Righetti’s magic homer prevention pixie dust should make him a valuable #4/#5 starter. I guess I’d peg this outcome as 70% likely. There’s a 20% chance he becomes Jensen, and a 10% chance he becomes a young Zito.
Yeah, I don’t think it’s going to be 3 long term (god let’s hope not, because that’s clearly not sustainable). But he’s learning some facts about major league hitters right now. From that perspective, it’s worth remembering that Lincecum’s #1 K pitch in college and the minors was his curve ball, and he all but shelved that pitch permanently after finding in his first two months in the majors that hitters didn’t go after it out of the strike zone and hit it if it was in the strike zone. Fortunately he developed the game’s best changeup on a whim! Frankly I think Surkamp should feature his changeup a little more. Anyway, I too think his performance will improve, but I don’t think it will improve much beyond being a decent #5 option.
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Whoa
Interesting info, thanks!
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Also
All 6 of those major leaguers were highly rated prospects.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Are you saying Tommy doesn’t belong in that group because he’s not highly rated or that Tommy should be highly rated because he’s put up similar numbers to the highly rated prospects?
Neither
Just pointing it out.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Galagher, Barton, Butler are 1B-men.
Trout and Jones are CF/OF types(Jones started out a SS)
Lopez is a 3B/2B-type
Snelling a corner OF.
So only Trout and Jones have a similar positional value to JoLTp. That says a lot about where Tommy stands as a prospect.
Snelling reached the majors at age 23 after a cup of coffee at age 20.
Lopez played 50-60 games during his age 20-21 seasons and then full time after that.
Butler came up his age 21 season, and then started playing full time during his age 22 season.
Barton still hasn’t made the majors at age 25.
Jones still hasn’t made the majors at age 21.
Gallagher still hasn’t made the majors at age 22.
Trout’s in the majors now at age 19.
Going off the above list, it definitely seems like they should take it slow with Tommy. AA at age 20, a full year of AAA at age 21, and the majors in his age 22 season. Only Trout, Lopez, and Butler were in the majors age 20-21, and Lopez didn’t produce value those years. Butler was semi-valuable during half the season of his age 21 year. Of course, Trout is Trout. We’ll get to see how that plays out.
Barton has 1700 PA’s in the majors.
Jones has 2300 PA’s is 26 and was an all-star in 2009.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
So long threepeat, you were a good dream while you lasted.
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from what I saw on comcast, quirarte should not pitch to lefties.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Sep 14, 2011 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
It didn’t take a genius to see that their pitching staff was vulnerable – especially the bullpen. Not having Wheeler, Hembree, Correa, Lofgren, Dunnington and Dunning available really put the onus on the offense to carry the team. They should have put Dunning on the DL and brought up Bochy. Imagine having him pitching last night in place of Quirarte.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Although the starting pitching did a lot of the damage in the series. Even last night, Reichard left the game with a no-out men on 2nd and 3rd situation. I certainly wouldn’t assume that Bochy or even Hembree (who looks to be out of gas, he’s really struggling in the EL playoffs) would get out of that situation with the lead.
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Exactly. Reichard actually pitched well above expectations, but with Wheeler and Lofgren still on the team Reichard wouldn’t have even started a game – and they likely wouldn’t have had Westcott and Marte start 2 of the first 3 games of the series.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I suppose although, IIRC Marte was the Opening Day starter, and Westcott probably had the best traditional numbers of the starting staff so he’d have been like to start Gm 1 regardless. And actually, it looks like Reichard had a slightly better year than Lofgren as well — and really, since Lofgren’s spent nearly all of the last 5 years in AA and AAA (with over 200 IP in AAA and over 300 IP in AA) it’s slightly embarrassing both for us and for him to have pitching on an A ball staff (for him because of the demotion, for us because we apparently can’t find five more deserving candidates in the system).
OT, but Wheeler’s post-season start didn’t go so well over in the FSL though he was throwing some kind of nasty K stuff obviously (St. Lucie’s staff got their collective hats handed to them in general).
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I would have expected Westcott to start game 2 or 3, maybe even if Wheeler and Lofgren were still on the staff. He has had a decent year (for a 25 year old in A ball, so take it FWIW), though he was definitely fading at the end.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
And hey, speaking of ringers
What the heck is Colby Rasmus doing playing against the Flying Squirrels?
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Too bad about San Jose. Gary Brown finished with 194 hits on the season including the playoffs.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Sep 14, 2011 8:48 AM PDT reply actions

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