The first thing I did was find every game so far this year where the starting pitcher went 7 or more IP, gave up 2 ER or less, and the team still lost the game.
The idea was brought up in yesterday's postgame thread (after TImmy's mediocre performance against the Braves) that in general a team should win most games where the starting pitcher goes 7 or more innings while giving up 2 earned runs or less. Yeah, I know a 'quality start' is 6IP, less than 3ER... but that's pretty weak and doesn't necessarily guarantee a win. But 2ER... most teams should be able to score at least two runs over a nine inning baseball game on most occasions. Most teams. Every team... except the Giants apparently. It sure seems like they manage to lose a lot of games where the pitchers make one mistake here or a mistake there. Or no mistakes at all. But is it really as often as we think or does it just feel that way since we have to suffer through each and every game? I thought I'd look into this all and got a little carried away, so bear with me while I divulge what I found...
3/31 v LAD – 7IP. 0ER
6/29 v CHC – 7IP. 1ER
7/20 v LAD – 7IP. 1ER
8/2 v ARI – 7IP. 2ER
8/18 v ATL – 7IP. 1ER
6/19 v OAK – 7IP. 1ER
6/30 v CHC – 7IP. 0ER
8/6 v PHI – 8IP. 1ER
5/2 v WSN – 7IP. 0ER
6/4 v COL – 7IP. 1ER
6/9 v CIN – 7IP. 1ER
8/4 v PHI – 8IP. 1ER
8/15 v ATL – 7IP. 2ER
5/26 v FLA – 8IP. 1ER
7/8 v NYM – 7IP. 2ER
5/28 v MIL – 7IP. 2ER
Look at all those wasted gems. Pretty damn dismal. That's some serious wasted opportunity there, not to mention no wonder all our starters have terrible looking win-loss records. For their efforts in those games...
Timmy got 4 Losses and 1 No Decision
Cain got 1 Loss and 2 ND
Madbum got 4 Losses and 1 ND
Vogey got 1 Loss and 1 ND
Durrty got a ND
thanks a lot for all your hard work guys!
- - - - - -
But hey, maybe there's a bright side, I thought. I mean it feels like they win a lot of those awesomely pitched games too right? So, I thought I'd look it up and compare. And I found that our starters have gone 7IP allowing no more than 2 earned runs 42 TIMES THIS YEAR.
Timmy has done it 13 of his 26 starts (and has a 11-10 record how...?)
Cain has done it 10 times
Bum has done it 11 times
Vogey has done it 5 times
Zeets has done it 2 times
Durrty did it Once…
And how many wins do they have to show for what would be considered excellent contributions to a game? In those 42 starts TImmy (7), Cain (6), Bum (5), Vogey (3), Zeets (1), and Sanchey (0) have combined for 22 wins. 22. That's it. That's just barely over half. And while I was on a roll, I decided to look up Roy Halladay's stats to see how they compare in such situations.
Roy Halladay has 13 starts where he went 7IP or more and gave up no more than 2ER. Same number as Timmy.
From those starts Halladay got 11 wins, 1 ND, and 1 Loss… :[ If Timmy were to win these kind of starts at a similar ratio to the Doc, his record would be 15-7 as opposed to 11-10 and maybe he would be in Cy Young talks again this year.
But anyways, back to what really matters. WINS. I'm sure all of our starters would gladly take their No Decisions with smiles in those games if the team got a win. So I went back to looking at the team results in such games regardless of whether the starting pitcher got a win, loss, or ND.
In games where the starting pitcher went 7IP or more, and gave of 2 ER or less
the Giants as a team went 22 for 42, a winning percentage of .523
the Phillies as a team went 43 for 51, a winning percentage of .843
NOW THAT IS STAGGERING. and depressing. if the giants had managed to win at the same percentage as the phillies when their starters went 7IP with less than 2ER… THEY WOULD HAVE 13 ADDITIONAL WINS. 13!!!! add those wins to their record and what do you have? 80 WINS. same number as the phillies have right now.
there you have it folks… the difference between the teams records can basically be explained by this, the Giants inability to win those games when thier starters have given them a more than decent shot. If the giants had just managed to win at a decent clip when their starters were exceptional, when most other teams would have no problem winning, they would be tied for the best record in baseball…
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