Torres, Sanchez and Fontenot cut for 2012? Payroll questions
by kvdp12 on Aug 15, 2011 4:01 PM PDT
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PrintSo I have been looking over the teams payroll for 2012 in an attempt to predict next years team, and came across a couple of roster spots Im unsure on. Im interested in what the masses on McC think.
For next year the Giants already have 73 million guaranteed on the books. Factoring in free agency by adding in only obvious re-signs of players from the 2011 team like Lopez and Mota and predicting they would combined make about 4 mil, while predicting that Affeldt's 5 mill option is picked up, we are brought to 82 mill.
Guesstimating the salaries of the players who will obviously be offered arbitration, like Lincecum(16 mil), Romo (2 mil), Vogelsong(4 mil), Sandoval(5 mil), Ramirez(2 mil), Casilla(2 mil), Nate (2 mil), Keppinger (4 mil), and then adding in the salaries of the players that have not yet reached arbitration, whos pay is decided by the Giants (Posey, Bumgarner, Belt, Runzler), lets say they combined make about 2 million, you come to 122 million.
A 122 million dollar payroll in a team friendly scenario, in which Im also assuming we do not, for different reasons, resign players like Beltran, Tejada, DeRosa, Burrell, and Cabrera.
Its noted too that we still have no shortstop after the add up. Id love to dream of Jose Reyes but with the questions around his health, the way the league is going to trip over themselves in the bidding for him, and the already lofty payroll the team will be paying, I cant see it. I am going to go with a cheaper, short term, but still need filling, lets-hope-Joe-Panik-sticks-at-SS-hits-like-crazy-and-only-takes-2-years-in the-minors-before-hes-ready type player in Rafael Furcal. And with assuming that the Cardinals dont pick up his 12 million 2012 option, lets say we sign him for 1 year and 5 million, bringing the team to about 127 mill.
Now lets say we resign Cody Ross to play CF at the Freddy Sanchez/Mark DeRosa, 2 yr/ 12 mill deal, that is 6 more mil, and the lineup would then look like:
Furcal, Sanchez, Sandoval, Posey, Huff, Ross, Belt, Schierholtz
Pitching Staff: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, ? - Wilson, Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Affeldt, Ramirez, Mota
Bench: Keppinger, Whiteside, Rowand, ?, ?
(at a team total of 133 million)
And here where Im really interested in what everything we should do. Those last 3 question marks.
The players that come to mind to fill those question marks are Andres Torres, Mike Fontenot, and Zito/Sanchez/Surkamp. These players are question marks due to their poor performances and increasing salaries on a tight budgeted team.
- If Torres would be used largely as a 4th/5th outfielder/ defensive replacement/ pinch runner, should a team in some financial pinching go with a cheaper, possibly equal performance delivering option? Two players that would make less then the maybe 3 million Andres would make in arb, are Darren Ford and Tyler Graham(CF, 55 stolen bases .280 avg, .344 OBP, .355 slug in AAA)
- The question mark for the 5th starter spot will be filled by one of Sanchez, Zito, or hopefully Eric Surkamp. Before the season started I had Dirty down as making about 5 mil in arbitration. That was being favorable to the team too. I know alot of people when they even see Surkamp being discussed as a Sept call up this year, or being in a position to fight for a spot next year can simply retort with 'AA is Double A is x2 Aye', but Im personally on team Surkamp here. I really hope Bochy has as little confidence left in Zito and Sanchez as most of us do, and throws the final rotation spot up as a Spring Training competition, in which case the Giants would hopefully realize that Barry Zito will make 19 mill in 2012 whether he is giving up homeruns in a Giants uni or not, and would just eat the contract if Surkamp were to shine. Though if we were to save any money by choosing Surkamp over Dirty, it would come in the offseason when we could not tender Sanchez a contract.
- And as for Fontenot, I had him in the beginning of the season pegged for making 2 mil in 2012, after arb. Now though I dont know if the team will even want him back, and even less so now that we have Keppinger. I still like Mike, but there are players out there in free agency that could play a better back up SS, and would probably get less moeny. At this point Id rather have Cabrera back on another 1 mil deal, if hed be willing to back up until Furcal's bi-monthly injury occurs.
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I do think Fontenot is gone
I think the Giants prefer Keppinger and want a back up infielder that can play SS/3B better than Fontenot
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by Gobroks on Aug 15, 2011 4:05 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Well which one is it: do they prefer Keppinger, or do thy want a backup who can play a better 3B/SS?
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Both
I think they like Keppinger better than Fontenot, so he’ll take one of the reserve infielder roles (with Sanchez starting) and for the other reserve infielder role they want someone who is more of a natural SS/3B
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#$*R^%#$$%^#%^&
Is there anyone in the known universe who even thinks that Keppinger can play a decent second base? Now imagine him at shortstop.
The Mighty Atom can play a passable shortstop, and if Fuckhead would ever give him some regular play time, could bat about as well as FSanchez; they would make a passable middle-infield combo. And Bill Hall, who could probably be had nearly for free (as these things go) would make an acceptable backup.
Keppinger and Cabrera were Subtraction By Addition.
Of course, whether either head of the Bochean Monster understands those obvious points is another question . . . .
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Oh I agree
Given their respective costs I’d prefer Fontenot to Keppinger, but I don’t think that’s how it will play out
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by Gobroks on Aug 16, 2011 4:30 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
So I take it...
…that you’re not a fan of Mr. Keppinger?
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
I think Keppinger plays a decent enough second base. His range is poor, but he gets everything he reaches. He’s solid insurance in case Freddy is not ready to start the season, and considering how long they waited for the surgery, that’s probably what’s going to happen.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Range is very important though.
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by Johnny Disaster on Aug 19, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m rooting for both Keppinger and Fontenot to be back. It does seem that the team prefers Keppinger, but I think Fontenot’s ability to play SS better than Keppinger and opposite platoon splits from Mole make him the better fit for the roster. Freddy’s fragility give Keppinger more value to the roster than he’d have as a backup on most teams. I think there’s room for Pablo, Freddy, Keppinger, Fontenot and perhaps a starting SS/backup 3B type on the roster. (Omar Infante?)
Thing A
Agree about Beltran.
He’ll get two years, 20 mill. from Boston, and that will be that.
Don’t want Furcal. Our SS next season should be Brandon Crawford. I think his offensive struggles this season are a low-BAPIP fluke, and with his glove, I don’t think a 3 WAR SS is at all impossible.
We may be stuck with Rowand again, but I’d say flush that sunk cost. See no evidence that Ross can play center on a daily basis. Torres can, plus add Ford as a 5th OF, all until Gary Brown makes it up.
Trade Dirty for whatever we can get for him. Bite the bullet and DFA Zito. Surkamp’s cheap and should be the first option as fifth starter, but we’ll find someone. Fontenot’s probably gone. You mention Tyler Graham, but I’d say Pill’s a better bench choice.
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are you saying Beltran will prob only make $10 mil/year? i wouldn’t mind if the Giants try to match that kind of an offer…
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 15, 2011 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't either
But the Giants would probably match it with a 7 year 12 mil. grit.
I Rep the Dirty 209 (unfortunately)
I don’t see Boston as a spot for Beltran. They were financially conservative at the deadline and I think they’ll stay the same in the off season. They cast their financial lot with Gonzalez and Crawford and they won’t be making any more huge expenditures in my opinion.
Anyway, what happens with Beltran is totally dependent on what he does when he returns. If he gets hot and carries this team places he’ll get paid. If he continues to flounder and be injured, his price will come down to the point where he might as well sign with whatever team he wants to play for.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Karnak 2012
Keppinger replaces Fontenot
Belt replaces Ross in LF
I see a possible Crawford/Cabrera platoon. A money saver.
Torres maybe sticks as a 4th OF
J. Sanchez is gone. Giants need to find 5th starter. Maybe Surkamp.
Giants also need to find lead-off hitter. Preferably a CF.
Derosa is gone. Don’t see Giants making an offer.
I slight chance Rowand is released and the Giants eat the last year of contract.
Not sure if Affeldt is worth $5 million, so maybe gone.
Doubtful Mota is resigned.
Pretty good guesses - agree with most of it
My 2 cents:
Dirty is probably gone, but he certainly won’t be cut, as the title of this fanpost suggests.
Mota will be back on a ST make-good contract, unless he gets a full major league contract offer from another team.
Rowand won’t be cut before the end of May, but the Giants will be trying really hard to trade him while offering to pay up to $6M of his contract.
Affeldt is back, unless some team makes a really good trade offer for him (doubtful). His contract is guaranteed, so the Giants don’t gain much by trading him unless they can get a team to assume his entire contract.
Ross the Boss is not even given an arb offer – he probably will return to the Marlins as a FA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I agree with all of this. And exactly whom we receive in trade for JSanchez might affect the makeup of the 25-man roster next year.
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
I can’t imagine us getting much for him. Actually, I could see him getting non-tendered.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
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Cot’s has Affeldt with a 2012 option of $5 million with a $500K buyout.
I don’t see that option being picked up. He might want to come back, but I doubt the Giants offer him anything close to what he was getting.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
So who is our second lefty out of the bullpen next year?
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
Free agent or Runzler. Or Verdugo.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
what’s he worth in fair mkt now, about $3 mil/yr?
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 16, 2011 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
.2 WAR, .44 WPA. Probably about $1-2mm by WAR, $3mm by WPA.
But relievers have inflated price/WAR. The next question to ask would be, who are the highest paid LOOGY’s in the league?
Cot’s has the 23 highest paid relievers on their site. They’re almost all closers. However, at #17 we see Mike Gonzalez, $6mm. Does he qualify as a LOOGY?
#18-23 are all righty closers or setup men, and the list ends at $5.5mm.
In other words, if the Giants picked up Affeldt for $5mm, he would be one of the priciest LOOGY’s around, if not the priciest. Of course, 2012 may see the Yankees sign a LOOGY for $8mm/yr, so you never know.
Mike Gonzalez was signed to be the Orioles’ closer and got hurt a lot and sucked. That’s not a LOOGY, that’s an injured closer.
You’ll be glad to know that Andy MacPhail learned from his previous failures and signed Kevin Gregg.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
maybe they could tear up the old contract and give him 2 years at $3.75 to $4 mil/year…looks like we don’t have much in the way of lefty relievers in AAA or AA unless Verdugo was option or Runzler got back on track…
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 18, 2011 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Ross the Boss is not even given an arb offer – he probably will return to the Marlins as a FA.
Rumor has it that Ross absolutely hated Florida when he was playing there – doubt he’ll sign with them.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
What?
I’ve heard the exact opposite. He cried when he got claimed on waivers.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Huh. Interesting. I’ll try to track down where I read that.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
Yeah, Ross loved the Marlins and was a huge fan favorite. I think you’re mixing up reports that he was pissed off at management when they DFA’d with his feelings for the team and the area. I can’t see him still holding a grudge against management, because he got a WS ring and a very nice pay raise out of the deal.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
He loved it there, but was angry at being placed on waivers, and I’m not sure those feelings can be repaired. I’m pretty sure all the turmoil over there this season will be a big negative in whatever he decides. I see him signing with a lesser team that promises him a starting role. He’s a fourth outfielder on a good team.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
i'm in this line
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 15, 2011 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Piker!
I’ve got rosters in mind for the next 4 seasons.
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
i think the giants have shown us over the years that its simply a waste of time for us to guess what roster moves they will make.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Aug 15, 2011 9:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think Ross is gone... and maybe Torres too
Ross is making $6.3 this year for waaaaaay mediocre performance. Yes, he was instrumental in winning the WS, but 2011 shows that he’s probably better off as a 4th OF. Definitely not worth bringing back at at >$6 mill/year. Does he have one more year of arb left? Either way, I think he’s looking to go more than $6, so I say no.
Torres was also a nice story last year, but this year not so much. I think he’s arb eligible for 2012, and at $2.2 this year and mediocre numbers, he might not cost too much for next year, but again, he might not be an everyday player.
Assuming Beltran isn’t resigned, I think we might have to go into 2012 with a Belt, Rowand, Schierholtz OF.
Who will the Giants offer arbitration?
From the Elias Rankings, I see that the Giants have 5 draft compensation eligible arb players. The ranked players are 1 type A in Beltran and 4 type Bs in Lopez, Burrell, Ross and Tejada.
Type As:
Beltran: I know that Beltran had a deal with the Mets that they wouldn’t offer him arbitration, but does that transfer to the Giants? Maybe I am wrong, but didn’t the Red Sox offer Billy Wagner, who had the same language in his deal with the Mets arbitration and get a draft pick out of it when he signed with the Braves? I would prefer to offer him arbitration and get the picks, but that may be bush league and alienate the Giants Brass with top players in the future. Answer: Do not offer arbitration.
Type Bs:
Lopez: This is a no brainer and the Giants must offer him arbitration. If he declines and signs with another team they get a pick and if he accepts they should work out a 2 yr deal before going to the hearing. Answer: Do offer arbitration.
Burrell: The Giants need to offer and get the pick for Burrell which he will probably decline for a bigger deal or get a little over 1M to be a good bat to PH off the bench. Answer: Do offer arbitration.
Ross: He is a good player that gets streaky hot and I would offer him arbitration only if they don’t offer Beltran arb because of the log jam possibility in the outfield. I think that Ross is looking for a longer term deal and woud probably decline the offer and the Giants would reap the extra draft pick when he signs elsewhere. If he accepts it, he could play a decent center field and his pop could be helpful to the lineup lessening the need for Torres. Answer: Do offer arbitration.
Tejada: I can’t believe that Tejada is still a type B player since he has been pretty disrespected this season by the org. I feel he would not accept arbitration if he was told that he has no chance to start and if he returned it would be as a super utility guy. Answer: Do offer arbitration.
From my post, it is pretty obvious that I believe that type B players are worth the risk to try and get another high draft pick.
by krukkuipandclint on Aug 16, 2011 9:23 AM PDT reply actions
Best/worst case scenario
Worst scenario: Tejada, Burrell and Ross all accept arbitration
Lineup: CF-Ross, 2B-Sanchez, 3B-Sandoval, C-Posey, 1B-Huff, LF-Belt, RF-Schierholtz, SS-Crawford
Bench: SS/2B-Keppinger, 3B/SS/1B-Tejada , LF/PH-Burrell, C-Stewart, OF-Rowand
I don’t mind Tejada and Burrell on my bench or Ross in the OF as long as Belt gets regular time in LF next year and would be okay with this situation.
Best scenario: Tejada, Burrell and Ross all decline arbitration and Beltran signs
Lineup: CF- Torres/FA, 2B-Sanchez, RF-Beltran, 3B-Sandoval, C- Posey, 1B-Huff, LF- Belt, SS-Crawford
Bench- RF/LF Schierholtz, 2B/SS-Keppinger, C-Stewart, 3B/2B/1B – Gillaspie, OF-Rowand
+ 3 Supplemental picks
I expect that most people would be happy with this second scenario if they got a nice CF option or even if Ross was brought back to play center.
by krukkuipandclint on Aug 16, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Beltran can not be arbed – per his contract. That’s why some of us didn’t like the Beltran for Wheeler trade.
If their playing time continues to be non-existent then I don’t see how Burrell and Tejada will make the cut as Type B FAs. I guess it’s possible for Tejada due to the dearth of good SS in the NL this year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Beltran has a clause, but so didn’t Wagner when he was with the Mets before he went to Boston right? Or was Wagner’s more of a handshake deal and not in writing?
by krukkuipandclint on Aug 16, 2011 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Nate
is getting soooooo close to being an everyday player. His 113 OPS+ and RF defense has to be tempting the organization to hand him the starting RF job. I think I’d prefer that to giving Beltran big money.
The thong is, it happened.
I have to think he’s in the running to be everyday center fielder as well, despite the team’s weird resistance to playing him there thus far.
I'm not huge on playing him there
Just because the RF at Mays Field is weird and he’s got the best handle on how to deal with it. He absolutely has the skills to play CF, but Torres is great, Ross won’t embarrass you, and even Beltran could probably handle it for a few games. If it were any other stadium Nate should probably be the CF but not here.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’m not huge on it either, but none of those three players you mentioned is guaranteed to be on the team next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if none of them is. Rowand seems like the most likely candidate to be the everyday CF next year, depressing though that would be.
Ah
I was thinking for this year, not next.
Next year, putting Nate in CF just creates a hole in right. Unless Kieschnick or Peguero is ready, which seems kind of insane, I think we’re going to grab a FA outfielder, which is too bad because Torres ought to be starting IMO.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
unless
he was thinking along the lines of re-signing Beltran, letting Ross go, benching Torres, and giving Belt the everyday LF job.
Thing A
I don't think we can afford Beltran
I heard rumors of 4/50 which is totally ridiculous.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
idk, you have to overpay to bring a good hitter to AT+T anyway and Sabean won’t want to look like he gave away Wheeler for nothing….and i think they could afford $150 mil payroll if the sellouts continue….
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 18, 2011 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Giving anyone a 4/50 contract is a big deal
It’s basically another Rowand deal. Giving it to a 34 year old outfielder with knee problems and now wrist problems is insanity. If they’re going to pay someone big bucks to come here they might as well spend the money on a worthwhile player. Jose Reyes makes a lot more sense than Beltran – he’s got some injury history, but is much younger and plays a premium position that we almost certainly won’t be able to fill with a good hitter from the farm. Even if we’re locked into bringing in another outfielder I’d rather have David DeJesus or Ross or even Michael Cuddyer, all of whom will be cheaper and probably better.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
ok….i thought Beltran might have a few good years left now but maybe not….we just have too many mediocre position players and not enough clear starters…
Nate’s probably at least as good as DeJesus though…i wouldn’t mind if they re-sign Ross to ~$5-6 mil x 1 yr i guess….Cuddyer was already making $10.5 mil and idk how his numbers will translate at AT+T….
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 18, 2011 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
we just have too many mediocre position players and not enough clear starters…
Yeah, and we got some of them by signing older/injured guys to multi-year deals.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
While I don’t advocate four years to Beltran at this point of his career, I don’t think it’s fair to compare him to some of the stiffs that they’ve locked up. Beltran has a body of work that puts him far above those others. In his washed up years, he’ll be better than players like Rowand in his prime.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Will he?
Let’s say you sign him to a four-year contract. I think going into that you have to expect to lose at least one year due to injury – not necessarily all at once, but from his 35-38 seasons and considering his injury history I’d be surprised if they got more than three full seasons on the active roster.
Because of the location of the injuries, it’s expected his production will fall off. Beltran injured his knee and his wrist, and joint injuries tend to be scarier than bone breaks or muscle tears IMO. As a speedy guy and a hitter, knee+wrist is a particularly bad combination.
He’s on pace for about a four-win season right now. Aaron Rowand in his prime from 2004-2007 produced almost 4.5 wins per season (4.375 to be exact). I don’t see how the older, injured Beltran is going to manage to step up his production for the next several years, but if he can we should absolutely sign him.
Beltran’s career is far, far better than Rowand’s, but you have to seriously consider the age and injury differences. Rowand didn’t have a bad injury history coming into his 5/60 deal, and he was only 31 so the deal still covered at least a few years of what is typically a player’s prime. The entirety of whatever contract Beltran gets will cover his decline phase, and while he’s starting from a point that’s high enough to get him at least a multiyear deal and maybe even the contract he wants, he will drop off and he will get hurt, two distinct disadvantages that likely prevent him from outproducing Rowand in his prime.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Power-hitting corner outfielders, at least..
Are a better bet to be valuable into the future, than middle infielders (Tejada) or mediocre center fielders (Rowand).
But I do understand this point.
ok, but who are you gonna sign then?
anyone? they’re wasting their window of opportunity because of the putrid offense and if i’m Cain or Timmy i’m ready to hit the road in free agency for a team that could actually score some runs…
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 19, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
We don't HAVE to sign anyone
I think Cain and Lincecum and Wilson will get extended, and Sandoval will at least be here through his arb years and possibly longer. That’s a lot of cash right there.
But there’s no reason to spend money if there isn’t anyone to spend it on. Maybe GMs feel like if they tell their owner they don’t need as much payroll room because they’re not looking to bring anyone in they’re afraid future payrolls will be cut, but I’d say one of the worst things anyone can do is spend money for the sake of spending it. Teams ought to spend when they’re trying to get a player they think is worth the money, not just finding the worthiest player for the money.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Pretty much, yeah
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
International free agent and guys who fall in the draft due to bonus demnads.
As quincy said, there’s no reason to spend big bucks on player who aren’t any better than what you’ve got, and aren’t clearly better than other FA’s getting less money.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I wonder what kind of range he would have in CF. My eyes seem to say that he doesn’t cover ground the way Rowand and/or Torres do. Not sure how much my eyes are lying to me. Although it’s interesting (with all the in-season squishiness ackowledged) to note that UZR doesn’t think very highly of his defense at all this year.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I know what you mean. He has a weird running style that makes it look like he’s not very fast, but then you look at how much ground he covered in such a short time period and you realize he actually is one of the fastest guys on the team. That being said, I do believe that he only has an average first step and he’s not overly quick.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
If I were in charge
I’d try to package Wilson and Sanchez to a big-budget, pitching-deficient team like the Yankees and/or Rangers for prospects and go with Romo as the closer and Zito as the #5 starter. Use the extra money for the Cain & Lincecum extensions, plus upgrading at SS (Rollins on a 2-year deal w/ 3rd year option, preferably) or the OF – either CF or RF.
I’d also decree Belt a starter at either (or both) LF and 1B. With Posey back, we might even have an offense approaching competent.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
I agree that packaging Wilson and Sanchez might be the best way to go.
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
Wilson really needs to not totally fall apart the next month of so for a whole host of reasons, one of which is this.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
It's not that I don't completely concur with selling high on relievers
But does anyone legitimately think Wilson is going anywhere? Especially via trade where Sabean has to actively participate in his departure?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Unless they don’t want to extend Timmy or Matt (given the Zito, Huff and Rowand contracts) yes. I don’t see the fiances shaking out any other way unless management ups the payroll, which it took a world series victory to do. Wilson’s K-rate is down and his BB-rate is way, way up — they need to sell now while his shiny, shiny (all-star, saves!) is still shiny.
That said, you’re right — this probably won’t happen. But it’s absolutely what I’d do.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
Well, in fairness, there’s no need to extend Timmy or Matt until after the Rowand and Huff contracts expire. They’re not forced to extend Timmy until after the Zito contract (mostly) expires.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
That’s true, but starting next year, they’ll BOTH be making $15+ million.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
True, but Cain’s is already accounted for in the $73 million total. And they do have a good amount of money coming off the books this year as well (Tejada’s $6.5, DeRosa’s $6, Ross’ $6.3, probably $4 for Affeldt and I’d be surprised if Sanchez isn’t gone as well, which is $4.8 this year). That’s over $27 million, a lot of which has been pretty worthless.
Also, don’t forget that they originally hoped that the Mets wanted to move Beltran’s salary rather than receive premium prospects. That they were prepared, if not eager, to take on that $9 or so million (plus the $1.5 mill or so that Kepp and Cabrera costs) shows that they don’t consider the $118 payroll to be capped out. Really, money isn’t my biggest concern with the team right now. I think they have plenty of margin to increase payroll if they so desire and feel it’s necessary.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
the Yankees
would make Brian Wilson shave his beard and not have a mohawk. That one’s not happening.
My thoughts:
Are you guys seriously willing to non-tender a player one year removed from a 5 WAR season just because of an injury-plagued and horribly mismanaged year? Andres Torres needs to stay around. Due to his down year, he will probably only cost $3 mil, and he would only need to improve slightly on this year’s results to achieve equivalent on-field value. One of Andres Torres or Nate Schierholtz (his bat plays really well in CF) needs to be the starting CF going into next year.
With center locked down, the Giants should make an effort to re-sign Beltran. That will probably fail, as he’ll fetch somewhere around $20 million a year if he can prove he’s healthy (Interestingly, that might be the silver lining for his recent wrist problems. If he opts for offseason surgery, that could drive down his cost considerably, giving the team with whom he is rehabbing the inside track.). If not, a Mr. Pat Burrell would like to have a word with you. Burrell likely won’t cost more than $1 mil, and he’s basically a godsend. Cody Ross is really superfluous if Belt pins down LF, but it wouldn’t hurt to offer a 1 yr/$6 mil contract with no guarantee of playing time. Ross would shy away from such an offer if there’s any market for his services at all, but he’s worth no more than that to the Giants.
In the Fontenot vs. Keppinger vs. Bill Hall debate, there is really a rather simple answer. Keep all of them. Keppinger is under team control and Fontenot and Bill Hall are both undervalued, so it wouldn’t be much of a chore to lock them all up. Since Freddy Sanchez has shoulder capsules made of paper mache, and the Giants don’t have a SS (except Crawford), all 3 could easily make the roster.
Brandon Crawford looks to have all the tools to be the SS in 2012, if the Giants are willing to give him a chance. Furcal is a decent option, but there’s no reason to block a practically free homegrown prospect.
Jonathan Sanchez is the enigma of all enigmas. He may be unwatchable at times, but he’s WAY better than Barry Zito, and it’s really not even close. I think Surkamp should at least start 2012 in Fresno, so that leaves the 5th starter job to Sanchez by default, and damn, he has the potential to be a really good 5th starter.
The Giants should cut Zito and Rowand, or find a GM dumb enough to give something up for one or both (lol). I don’t think I really need to explain this one.
I want the Giants to trade Wilson, but he’s too much of an icon for that to happen.
Here’s my best-case scenario lineup:
CF Torres
RF Beltran
1B Huff
3B Sandoval
C Posey
LF Belt
2B Sanchez
SS Crawford
P
Bench:
OF Burrell
OF Schierholtz (as the 4th OF, so he would get plenty of ABs)
IF Fonty
IF Kepp
Bubble:
IF/OF Bill Hall (some people have forgotten that he can play the OF, probably better than Burrell)
OF Darren Ford (I really don’t want him near the roster, but he will be)
Rotation:
Timmy
MadBum
Cain (split the aces up so teams like the, um, Astros don’t miss them both)
Vogelsong
Sanchez
Bullpen:
CP: Wilson (really should be Romo)
Romo
Lopez
Affeldt
Ramirez (underrated)
Hembree (dark horse)
Anyone but Casilla God damn it
I have a feeling Mota will retire at the end of the year, and, if he doesn’t, his arm will fall off thanks to Bork.
My adopted Giant, the young Reinier Roibal
I’m on the Torres sticking around bandwagon!
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 19, 2011 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Ramirez is underrated but Casilla has got to go?
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 19, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes. On the surface, Casilla is having a good year. An ERA under 2, and an ERA+ over 200. However, his K/BB is 1.30, he walks nearly 6 batters per 9 innings, and he has an FIP of 3.62. His LOB% is 86%, where league average is 72%, and LOB% can always be counted upon to regress back to the mean, as it cannot be affected by pitcher ability. He has also lost some of the velocity he randomly gained last year.
Meanwhile, Ramirez’ peripherals are in line with his performance. He has a 2.35 K/BB and only walks 3.5 batters/9, in line with his career averages. He also has a 74% LOB%, meaning he isn’t getting any undue amounts of luck.
As it is, I’m not too annoyed with Casilla’s existence, as he could be a perfectly good twelfth man if used as such. The Giants should not get too overly enamored with him, because he could explode at any moment.
My adopted Giant, the young Reinier Roibal
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