Sabean's Hitters
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 12, 2011 2:10 PM PDT
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PrintWhile pondering the teams's current hitting woes, or more accurately, the inability to score runs, I have come face to face (yet again) with a truism: Brian Sabean cannot identify good hitters. This seems incongruent, in that Sabean's early Giant teams were composed of massive hitters such as Bonds, Kent, Burkes, Aurillia's ridiculous 2001 season. In fact, the Giants teams of the late 90's, early 2000's were the opposite of the present teams - powerhouse hitting, decent pitching (although, if only we had decent hitting right now).
However, it seems that after the 2000 team, which led the league in runs, Sabean hasn't acquired or developed ANY sustainable good hitters. Hopefully, that is no longer a truism, as we now have Sandavol and Posey, and Brandon Belt looks as much like a W. Clark - Helton type as one could hope for in a prospect. But what is Sabean's track record of bringing hitters to the Giants since 2000? That's eleven years worth of rosters full of free agents, tradees and prospects on what has been, more often than not, a competitive team.
So, I did a thumbnail, unscientific sketch of the Giants hitters added after the 2000 season, eyeing the w.OBA numbers. Here are the best Giant career averages of the hitters acquired since the 2001 season, with how many times they were up at the plate.
Moises Alou .393 wOBA, 868 PA
Pat Burrell .361 wOBA, 543 PA
Pablo Sandoval .359 wOBA, 1717 PA
Andres Galarraga .357 wOBA, 467 PA
Buster Posey .353 wOBA, 645 PA
Aubrey Huff .350 wOBA, 1169 PA
Ray Durham .346 wOBA, 2697 PA
Andres Torres .346 wOBA, 1066 PA
Fred Lewis .342 wOBA, 1038 PA
No other regular or semi-regular averaged better than .338 (Kenny Lofton, Jose Cruz and Reggie Sanders all hit that), except Dustan Mohr who had a Burrellesque .360 wOBA, as a part timer in '04. But you get the point - there are only two good hitters, Durham and Sandavol, who have more than two seasons worth of at bats. Three of the hitters at the top of the list were ancient rentals, Alou, Gallaraga and Burrell (who at least moves like he is ancient). And as oddly similar as Torres and Lewis's Giants careers have been, nobody is generally going to confuse them with good hitters.
I guess my point is that as bad as Sabean's track record has been at identifying hitters over the past 11 seasons, as fans we should feel lucky, that not only have we garnered a World Championship, but that we could actually have a good hitting team as soon as next season. Add to a young core of Posey, Sandavol and Belt, a season from good (not bad) Huff, a FA signing ( perhaps a career average year from Beltran signed to a less than outlandish contract) and a semblance of a shortstop who can get close to a .320 wOBA - that's a good hitting team.
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Who is this semblance of a SS I ask.
(I’m also a bit skeptical of the Beltran scenario).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Your skepticism is warranted, but still it’s not difficult to imagine the Giants having 5 good hitters in their line-up next season, compared to one at the moment.
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 12, 2011 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I could give you Posey, Sandoval, and Belt, but I’d think to get two more good hitters in the lineup they’d have to rely on FA, and I’m not sure even where they’d put them. 2b should be occupied by Sanchez, and either 1b or LF will be Huff’s. They could try go out and sign Jose Reyes for SS I suppose but then I’m not sure they’d have the money to pay a FA OF on top of that.
Still 3 good and some average would certainly be a marked improvement. All they really need out of this offense is something approaching average.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
An average year from Huff
qualifies as a good hitting, doesn’t it? A league average position starter is about .320 wOBA. Wouldn’t Huff’s ZIP be about .340? Then I’m taking a leap of faith that the Giants find one decent hitting FA. You’re probably right, they won’t go for an upgrade at short.
I think it’s more likely that Sabean would sign Beltran than Reyes.
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 15, 2011 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Huff will be 35 next year, a career average year may not be a reasonable expectation.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
As a generalization . . .
. . . age 35 is about the last year at which a man’s career stats reasonably predict his current ability. Obviously, each man is a unique case, but that’s what the overall trend is. (Remember that a man performs below his peak both after and before he reaches that peak.)
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Of course his career average is a (slowly) moving target. It’s already down by .011 OPS from last season. Not a huge deal, but it’s part of the calculus. Also, most of that came in a far superior run scoring environment, so we’d have to adjust expected raw output down further (although that would depend on why run scoring is down over the last couple years: is pitching and defense better? Is hitting worse? Is there some outside factor depressing offense? Some combination of the three?)
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I remain convinced that Sabean is a scouting director
I think he’s great in the draft and if constrained to amateurs and prospects he’d do fine. But he can’t really handle free agency, his trade history isn’t great, and he’s not particularly adept at extensions even (the Wilson one was particularly confusing). I trust him for three days in June, and the rest of the year I am extremely skeptical of the moves he makes. In fact, the only time anything ever seems to work out is when he makes a no-risk deal.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
there's something to be said for being able to make no risk deals in the first place
and his trading record REALLY isn’t that bad, unless you make a whole lot of baseless assumptions about prospect value.
Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.
I am not convinced that Sabean is good evaluator of amateur talent, even. The oft-mentioned lack of drafting a good (by most definitions) hitter during his tenure would seem to contradict your point. And I would suggest that the team’s recent slight improvement (we think/hope) in choosing hitters is attributable to John Barr more than Brian Sabean.
If my life is for rent, and I don't learn to buy, then I deserve nothing more than I get, 'cause nothing I have is truly mine. - Dido Armstrong
The recent surge of home grown hitters, Posey, Sandavol and Belt, could be a real developing trend. Or it could just as well be the broken clock syndrome, referred to here when discussing the 2010 championship run. As with last season, when there was a convergence of good fortune in the Giants offense (Sabean backing into signing Huff, Burrell and Ross being handed to the Giants, Posey developing at just the right time), so after 15 inept years of trying to develop everyday hitters, sample size finally worked to the Giants benefit. After tens and tens of top prospects went through the pipeline, three have finally developed, fortunately at the same time. But the clock is still broken, it’s just showing the correct time right now.
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 13, 2011 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
The thing is...
Posey and Sandoval were both hot to start their careers, so they got to stick. Belt started out too cool, so it’s really going to take a miracle for him to regularly get playing time.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
There was a long period at the beginning of Sabean’s tenure when the team wasn’t even particularly good at drafting pitchers. Considering the shear number of 1st-3rd round picks hey spent on arms, the team really didn’t live up to its reputation for developing pitchers from draft to debut until ~2006 (the first year I can find when the majority of the top innings throwers were home grown).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
The Foppert/Williams/Ainsworth trio would beg to differ. None of them ended up working out, but of course TINSTAAPP, and all three were highly regarded prospects.
Sabean wouldn’t be the world’s best scouting director, but I think he’d be good and certainly more suited for that job than a GM position. That’s really his wheelhouse.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I know that Ainsworth gets
mentioned frequently around here as a bust, yet he was the one guy aside from Nathan that I wish they had stuck with a little longer. Ainsworth wasn’t having a bad season in 2003 when he got traded, and more than half his starts that year were quality starts. He was Jonathan Sanchez without the walks, and would have made a decent back-of-the-rotation starter if they had stuck with him.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
do you even realize what you're saying?
Jonathan Sanchez without the walks is pretty much Randy Johnson in his prime.
Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.
V, I disagree.
Jonathan Sanchez without the walks isn’t Randy Johnson, because Dirty is nowhere near as mentally tough as RJ. Ainsworth needed more work and with experience could have developed the mental toughness and knowledge to be decent, but never got that chance here. Dirty on the other hand has had plenty of time and still lacks the mental toughness to be successful.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
that's a ridiculous argument
you know what sanchez’s mental makeup is how, exactly? A pitcher putting up 9+ k/9 without walking a lot is an ace, not a “decent back-of-the-rotation starter”
Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.
The Foppert/AinsworthWilliams trio are a case in point.
Of reputation exceeding production.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
But it wasn't just the Giants who built that reputation
They were highly regarded prospects from independent sources as well. The fact that pretty much everyone saw greatness in their future should either lead you to the conclusion that Sabean did well to get them and was unlucky that none of them panned out, or that something was wrong with them that no one could see and Sabean can’t be particularly faulted for being as wrong as everyone.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Lots of touted players don’t pan out. I don’t see popular acclaim as a legitimate measure of results, the whiff rate on publicly available prospect lists is to too high. Furthermore, I think the quality of those lists was markedly lower 10 years ago than it is now (though that’s just an impression).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
agree with Bhaakon….his early drafts were terrible…
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 12, 2011 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think he has done a great job with developing hitters
but I think he has done a worse job at picking managers; none of his guys shows any patience in developing young hitters (Baker is still struggling with this in Cinci) and the emphasis in development is hack, hack, hack.
Seems like that more of an emphasis in drafting (or, rather, lack of emphasis on drafting patient hitters).
It’s not like they draft guys who are good at working the count and turn them into slop hackers. Also, I think that batting eye is much more talent based than was once believed, and that the foundations for the skill portion need to be laid long before the player reaches draft age. Put simply, hacktastic prospects who learn plate discipline in the minors are the exception.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
batting eye is much more talent based than was once believed
This is one of the main theses of Moneyball. It’s not a particularly new idea.
I’d say there’s some truth to it and some fiction. There are players who throughout their careers exhibit above-average plate discipline, and there are hitters who display the opposite tendencies, no matter the attempts to push either kind in the opposite direction. But the Giants in particular are an organization that I think does not particularly value OBP, so not only do they draft players who aren’t great at taking pitches, there’s no reinforcement at any level that showing plate discipline will get you playing time, is a good thing for you to have to grow as a hitter, or will earn you promotions. It’s not just that Giants draftees tend not to walk, it is important that nowhere are they really told (or so it would seem) that they need to walk. Maybe coaching can improve a player’s plate discipline, maybe not, but the Giants aren’t even trying.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I wonder what influence Bonds may have had in this.
By that I mean, do you suppose that, in an ironic twist, the Giants saw the sheer number of times Bonds would get unintentionally walked and just wished that he’d hack at it instead. You know, runners at first and second, 2 out, 3-1 count, and thought that Bonds walking was ultimately counter productive to the Giants scoring more runs. And if, during or after that, they really started preaching the virtues of hacking.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
I hope none
The big thing people pay attention to with Bonds is his power. But it was his eye that let him be that good; the dude did not swing at bad pitches and so he never got jammed or hit things off the end of the bat. It’s better to take your walk when pitchers are pitching around you than tap one off the end of the bat to short for a groundout. I’m sure Barry knew that, and if the FO didn’t then that’s incredibly sad.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I'd certainly like to hope not
But with Vlad, at around the same time, hitting anything thrown in the general direction of home plate out for a home run, I’m curious if there was ever that thinking that Bonds could do that same thing, and maybe provide far more offense than he did. I mean, how tempting must it have been for management to look at the comparatively low RBI totals (45 HR, 90 RBI as a prime example) and think, “DAMMIT! Swing at that outside slop and knock it around the park! You’re our best bet for an increase in run production!”
I don’t know, it’s just an idea that occurred to me arbitrarily. But I’m sure Sabes and everyone else associated with the Giants knew it was his freakishly good eye that made him what he was. Bonds PROBABLY had nothing to do with their insane offensive philosophy, but… You never know…
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
He undervalues young players
Should of started Posey from Day 1 last season
Has completely botched the whole Belt situation.
Has guys on the farm that he simply won’t give a chance over his “veterans” who aren’t performing… Brett Pill’s numbers (for example) don’t look great if you actually contexualize them, but why not? Give the kid a chance, or at least a roster spot, over someone like Mark DeRosa.
Stop trading for guys like Orladno Cabrera, and give your young players a shot.
Where he truly kills us is in free agency. He always opts for players who once were good but are declining. He can’t aggressively go after a premium player so winds up with a second or third choice. Even Huff last year was a last minute panic signing. He got luck. On Ross, too. Plus he has these unquantifiable metrics for players: they are a “professional hitter” or a “character guy.” I’d actually like to see him target and get a premium player in his late-20s like Reyes. But past behavior indicates he’ll give a 34 or 35 year old player on the downside a huge contract.
"What makes you think you're Jesus Christ?"
"Well, when I pray I seem to be talking to myself"
Actually, Sabean’s FA downfall has been identifying good players in the late 20’s-early 30’s bracket. Alfonzo was 29, as was Zito, Rowand was 30. He has been more fortunate with the Alous of the world and the late season old boy pick-ups, Galarraga, Burrell, Loftons, etc.., where there is not a long term commitment. Hopefully, Beltran will show something, before the season is over.
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 13, 2011 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions
where there is not a long term commitment
Therein lies the rub. Sabean does fine when he has low-money short-term deals, because you can eat those contracts if the player doesn’t perform and there’s no big hullabaloo. But that’s true of every GM ever – signing no-risk contracts isn’t really a skill. I mean, it was great that he got Uribe and Huff for such little money, but if neither of them hit they could have cut them both for $3.5M (Uribe’s ‘09 salary, $6.75M in ’10 for both) which is chump change. Ross and Burrell are of the same mold. It’s not the age thing (Ross, Torres, Uribe, and Huff were all early 30’s players when they were signed) it’s the fact that he’s not committing large amounts of money.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
It’s just that the older the players are, the less chance that he will sign them to a longer term contract. Also, Ross, Uribe and particularly Torres hadn’t done anything previously that would merit long term contracts. Huff could have, and eventually merited a $21 million contract, but we lucked out on his initial cheap contract, because doubtlessly Sabean undervalued him.
But I agree, the rub is players like Rowand and Zito, who for whatever reason aren’t good anymore, but had done things in their past which could merit long term contracts. And they were young enough to get them.
by San Francisco Slim on Aug 13, 2011 12:54 PM PDT reply actions
I don't think it has much to do with identifying hitters but getting hitters to come here
Sabean has the #s in front of him.
It’s easy to see who the best hitter of the FA class is and big time trades really aren’t Sabean’s thing.
good hitters don’t want to come here. I think it’s as simple as that.
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