Reviewing the MCC Community Prospect List
by Gobroks on Jul 6, 2011 1:42 AM PDT
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For reference here is the final prospect list
I got the stats from Baseball Reference and Milb.com
1. Brandon Belt
Fresno: .337/.467/.519, 4 HR’s, 32:27 K:BB, 3/6 SB, 135 PA’s
SF: .211/.328/.281, 1 HR, 15:9 K:BB, 2/2 SB, 67 PA’s
Belt surprisingly made the Major league club out of Spring Training but he struggled and went back to AAA when Cody Ross came off the DL. Belt said his timing was close to returning when he was sent down. He dominated when he went to AAA and came up when Buster Posey was injured. He is currently on the DL after being hit by a pitch on the wrist.
2- Zack Wheeler
71.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 7.2 H/9, 4.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/BB, 1.22 GO/AO
Wheeler’s name has been mentioned a lot as part of a potential Jose Reyes trade. He’s already surpassed last year’s innings total. He’s posted a similar line to the one he had last year but he’s walking roughly 1 less batter per nine and is no longer getting groundballs at the rate he did last year.
3.Thomas Neal
.310/.374/.429, 2 HR’s, 37:13 K:BB, 5/11 SB, 203 PA’s
Neal’s ultimate ceiling has been the source of much debate at McC-some see a solid regular and others see him more in a reserve role. This year he has been decently but his power numbers are a bit concerning for a corner OF in the PCL. Still he spent some time on the DL earlier this year and he took time to adjust in the EL last year, and has done a good job of hitting for average and getting on base.
4. Gary Brown
.321/.388/.471, 6 HR’s, 54:26 K:BB, 34:48 SB, 380 PA’s
This is the part of the post where I eat my crow. I was loudly against the Gary Brown pick seeing him as a Rajai Davis type at best. This year he has answered every question in the Cal league, Hitting for average, walking, and hitting for power, as well as showing off his top of the line speed. He’s had a great year and I’m very happy to have been proven wrong.
SJ: .324/.387/.441, 2 HR’s, 8:7 K:BB, 4/4 SB, 76 PA’s
Richmond: .350/.357/.550, 2 HR’s, 5:1 K:BB, 0/0 SB, 42 PA’s
Peguero just recently came back from a knee injury. After putting up a good slash line, with worrisome peripheral stats in the Cal league last year (88:18 K;BB) he appeared ticketed for AA but the injury cost him the first two months but he has finished rehabbing and has been promoted to Richmond where he has gotten off to a good start.
6. Brandon Crawford
SJ: .322/.412/.593, 3 HR’s, 13:9 K:BB, 0/0 SB, 69 PA’s
SF: .216/.310/.324, 2 HR’s, 15:14 K:BB, ¼ SB, 117 PA’s
Like Peguero, Crawford was injured and missed the start to his season. He started rehabbing back at San Jose and was likely looking to move to AAA but went straight to the majors when Mike Fontenot injured his groin. He has been as advertised-all glove, no bat-though he has displayed good patience.
7. Charlie Culberson
.264/.303/.387, 6 HR’s, 76:15 K:BB, 11/14 SB, 340 PA’s
After struggling badly for 2 years in Augusta, Culberson had his best year as a pro in the Cal league last year. Some thought it was a fluke given his K:BB, while others thought his tools were starting to translate. This year he is kinda splitting the difference (this is actually a better line than one’s he posted in Augusta) but still is below average. He still does have the benefit of youth on his side as he is 22.
8. Chuckie Jones
.278/.500/.389, 0 HR’s, 10:6 K:BB, 1/1 SB, 26 PA’s
Jones was the 1st High Schooler taken in the 2010 draft and was seen as a raw, but with good power and athleticism. Jones then somewhat surprisingly held his own in the AZL. The Giants remained conservative with him, assigning him to Salem-Keizer. He has been out recently with a bout of appendicitis.
9. Ehire Adrianza
Augusta: .231/.315/.378, 3 HR’s, 32:18 K:BB, 3/5 SB, 168 PA’s
San Jose: .389/.450/.611, 0 HR’s, 5;1 K:BB, 0/0 SB, 20 PA’s
Adrianza was another player who appeared ticketed for AA but was injured to start the year. He was assigned to Augusta and was just recently promoted to San Jose, where he played last year. As a player he is like a more extreme version of Brandon Crawford, in that he has more glove, but less bat. It is important to remember though, that he is still just 21.
10. Jose Casilla
12.1 IP, 9.49 ERA, 12.4 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.9 K/9,
Not a good year for Santiago’s little brother. He had a strong year as Augusta’s closer, but his K rate was cause for concern. This year he was hit hard before going on the DL.
11. Jorge Bucardo
2011 stats: N/A
Bucardo has been MIA this year and is most likely out with an injury. Before his injury he had below average stuff but he varied his arm angles and got good sink on his pitches.
12. Tommy Joseph
.242/.283/.381, 7 HR’s, 65:15 K:BB, 1/1 SB’s, 326 PA’s
Joseph was paired with Hector Sanchez last year and the beginning of this year. While Sanchez has accelerated to AAA, Joseph has struggled at San Jose after struggling at Augusta the year before. The main problem Joseph has had is his selectivity as his strikeout to walk ratio is ugly and hurts him from tapping into his power. Still he’s just 19 and has big time power at a premium position with improving defense.
13. Eric Surkamp
83.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 7.7 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 1.11 GO/AO
Surkamp has posted another very strong year in the Eastern League and is looking like he could become a back of the rotation starter in short order. His biggest problem is his below average fastball velocity, but he has good command and gets lots of strikeouts with his curveball and change up.
14. Mike Kickham
50.1 IP, 4.83 ERA, 9.8 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.86 GO/AO
Kickham started the year on the DL before getting assigned to Augusta. In the SAL he has posted a solid line. Given his age he could advance to San Jose at some point during the summer.
15. Jarrett Parker
.265/.368/.431, 8 HR’s, 77:42 K;BB, 15/17 SB, 329 PA’s
Parker was the Giants 2nd round pick out of the University of Virginia in 2010. He had good athleticism and tools but his swing was long leaving him prone to strikeouts. His first pro season has been a bit of a mixed bag as he has struck out a lot and his power hasn’t developed as hoped, but he is walking a lot and seems to be getting better as the year progresses.
16. Hector Sanchez
SJ: .301/.321/.511, 8 HR’s, 41:5 K:BB, 184 PA’s
Fresno: .333/.411/.413, 0 HR’s, 5:9 K:BB, 73 PA’s
When Buster Posey got injured the Giants frantically began looking for a replacement and that came in the form of aggressively sending Sanchez to AAA Fresno. Defensively Sanchez has a strong arm but is raw in receiving and game calling (though Barry Zito did praise his game calling). Offensively he has shown the ability to draw a walk and hit for power.
17. Heath Hembree
SJ: 24.2 IP, 0.73 ERA, 5.8 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 16.1 K/9, 0.56 GO/AO
Richmond: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.5 H/9, 11.2 BB/9, 18.0 K/9, 0,67 GO/AO
Hembree has had a great year and is probably one of the top pure relief prospects in all of baseball. He was San Jose’s closer for 2 months before getting promoted to AA. He looks like he could end up being a future closer at the major league level.
18. Roger Kieschnick
.257/.313/.406, 8 HR’s, 69:24 K:BB, 9/15 SB, 316 PA’s
Kieschnick was one of the bigger disappointments last year, though lots of players struggle adjusting to the Eastern League and he did have back issues. This year he’s been a bit better but given that he’s repeating the league and the fact that his power is supposed to be his best tool his line is still pretty underwhelming.
19. Conor Gillaspie
Fresno:.295/.375/.441, 4 HR’s, 48:35 K:BB, 6/11 SB, 301 PA’s
SF: .286/.375/.286, 0 HR, 0:1 K:BB, 0/0 SB, 7 PA’s
Gillaspie had a cup of coffee in the big leagues this year, his 1st since September of 2008 when he was called up due to his contract. He also has quietly had his most productive year at the plate. He still profiles better as a utility guy than a regular but his year has been encouraging.
20. Rafael Rodriguez
.235/.276/.303, 1 HR, 41:12 K:BB, 1/6 SB, 250 PA’s
Rodriguez was aggressively assigned to Augusta to start the year. The owner of the Giants largest ever international bonus he has failed to live up to expectations, but he’s still just 18 so there is still a lot of time for him to develop.
21. Seth Rosin
64.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 8.4 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.68 GO/AO
Rosin was assigned to Low A and struggled there as a starter. He shifted to the bullpen and has had some success there, but given his level, his age his year has been disappointing.
22. Jason Stoffel
27.1 IP, 3.29 ERA, 10.2 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 1.65 GO/AO
Stoffel has been the closer at San Jose and now Richmond. He does a nice job of getting strikeouts, but he has struggled with his control which has led to a high number of walks and hits. One interesting thing to note is that he has done a good job of suppressing HR’s throughout his career-only 5 allowed in 98 career innings.
23. Nick Noonan
.213/.301/.298, 3 HR’s, 54:28 K:BB, 2/2 SB, 268 PA’s
Like Kieschnick, Noonan had a disappointing 2010 and returned to AA in 2011. He shifted to SS to accommodate Charlie Culberson at AA but has disappointed this year again with an OPS under .600. He’s still fairly young but his strong SAL campaign seems long ago.
24. Michael Main
20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 8.1 H/9, 5.0 BB/9, 9.9 K/9, 0.45 GO/AO
Main was the prospect the Giants got in return for covering Bengie Molina’s salary last year. After coming over from the Rangers, Main struggled at AA and was assigned back to San Jose to start the year. He missed part of the year with an injured shoulder but has started pitching again.
T25. Brock Bond
.246/.338/.333, 0 HR, 8:7 K:BB, 1/3 SB, 65 PA
Bond was the source of much debate as his high BA and walk rate are very strong but his lack of other tools and being passed up in the Rule 5 draft made some say he wasn’t a legit prospect. This year he has been limited to just 65 plate appearances which is unfortunate given that there is an opening at the ML level to see if he can make it in the bigs.
T25. Jake Dunning
53.0 IP, 5.43 ERA, 11.4 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.70 GO/AO
Dunning was the rare position player convert who the org thought could hack it as a starter and not just as an arm strength bullpen guy. He started the year in the San Jose rotation but struggled there and has since shifted to the bullpen. Given how new he is to pitching and the advanced level he is at, he has posted an OK year.
27. Chris Dominguez
SJ: .291/.337/.465, 11 HR’s, 73:18 K:BB, 8/10 SB, 279 PA’s
Richmond: .283/.318/.567, 2 HR’s, 15:3 K:BB, 0/1 SB, 66 PA’s
Dominguez was the Giants 3rd round pick in 2009 known for his prodigious power and strong arm. He spent the 2010 year at Augusta and posted an underwhelming year. He started the year at San Jose and posted roughly the same line at San Jose before getting promoted to Richmond where for 12 of his first 16 hits have gone for extra bases, which is odd given that Richmond saps power.
28. Ryan Verdugo
78.0 IP, 4.04 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 3.7 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.69 GO/AO
Verdugo shifted to the rotation for the first time in his professional career and the results have been solid, as he has done a nice job getting strikeouts. His big key will be limiting walks in the future, but given his newness to starting I think 2011 has been successful for him.
29. Reinier Roibal
14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 10.9 H/9, 1.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.86 GO/AO
Roibal was the recipient of a 6 figure bonus and given his age many thought he would start the year in a full season rotation. He reportedly struggled in spring training and was sent to Salem Keizer. He’s 22 and has only thrown 14 innings so there’s not much to go on right now.
30. Clayton Tanner
82.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 9.7 H/9, 6.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.73 GO/AO
For the 2nd time in his career Tanner is repeating a level. He posted a good ERA at AA last year but that belied a 79:64 K:BB, but this year he has raised his strikeouts, lowered his walks but his ERA is a run higher-likely due to the increased number of HR’s he’s allowed this year.
31. Juan Perez
.229/.278/.337, 2 HR’s, 58:15 K:BB, 13/16 SB, 299 PA’s
Perez posted a solid line last year in the Cal league but showed that he was still raw. This year he has struggled at the plate showing his plate discipline issues with his power not showing up. He has however improved very well on the base paths and was named the Cal league’s best defensive CF by the managers last year.
32. Johnny Monell
.239/.320/.391, 8 HR’s, 62:26 K:BB, 0/3 SB, 270 PA’s
Monell is an interesting prospect. He has decent patience and solid power from the catcher position but has a poor K: BB and his defense behind the plate is raw. If he can stick behind the plate he could be a decent back up.
33. Darren Ford
Fresno: .211/.263/.324, 2 HR’s, 23:4 K:BB, 10/10 SB, 76 PA’s
SF:.300/.417/.300, 0 HR, 3:1 K:BB, 5/8 SB, 12 PA’s
Ford has one plus tool and he certainly has made the most of it-he has more games played than PA’s at the major league level and became a weapon for Bruce Bochy early in the season before he injured his ankle. He still doesn’t have the bat to be a starter at the next level but he looks like he could carve out a niche as a 5th OF who can pinch run and play defense.
34. Ryan Cavan
.264/.332/.414, 6 HR’s, 56:33 K:BB, 9/10 SB, 358 PA’s
Cavan emerged as a bit of a sleeper as he hit fairly well for a 2B in Augusta last year, though he was too old for the league. This year Cavan’s numbers have dropped pretty noticeably-roughly 50 OPS points but his defense at 2B has improved as he has just 3 errors this year compared to 26 last year.
35. Dan Burkhart
SK:.256/.310/.410, 1 HR, 11:3 K:BB, 0/0 SB, 42 PA’s
Augusta: .217/.265/.261, 0 HR’s, 17:3 K:BB, 0/1 SB, 49 PA’s
Burkhart was best known for being the catcher (in high school and college) of Minnesota Twins 2010 1st round pick Alex Wimmers. While Burkhart is having a better pro debut than his battery mate, he has still struggled and has gone from Augusta down to Salem-Keizer.
36. Matt Graham
SK: 9.0 IP, 15.00 ERA, 22.0 H/9, 5.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO
Augusta: 22.0 IP, 5.32 ERA, 8.6 H/9, 7.4 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 3.00 GO/AO
Graham was a 6th round draft pick in 2009 who received an overslot bonus to pass up a scholarship at North Carolina. Since joining the Giants organization he has struggled with his control and his mechanics. He’s now exclusively a reliever and this only would be his sophomore year at UNC but he’ll need to start improving quickly.
T37. Jacob Dunnington
Augusta: 43.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 6.1 H/9, 6.7 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.89 GO/AO
SJ: 2.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3.4 H/9, 0.0 BB/9, 13.5 K/9, 0.33 GO/AO
Dunnington who has an eerily similar name to Jake Dunning has had a strong start to his pro career. He was made a reliever after signing as a NDFA out of high school and spent the beginning of the year at Augusta before getting promoted to San Jose. He’s done a good job getting strikeouts and limiting hits but he needs to refine his control.
T37. Carlos Willoughby
.250/.362/.318, 1 HR, 51:47 K:BB, 26/32 SB, 362 PA’s
Willoughby didn’t come to the States until he was 2010 and made his full season debut this year. He has done a good job of using his speed as he has stolen 26 bases and walked almost as much as he struck out, though he isn’t hitting for any power.
39. Steve Edlefsen
20.2 IP, 6.53 ERA, 12.6 H/9, 1.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 2.07 GO/AO
Edlefsen is in his third year in the PCL and in terms of ERA. He has done a good job of lowering his walks but it has come at the expense of lowering his strikeouts and allowing more hits than he has in years past. He just finished rehabbing an injury.
40. Kendry Flores
9 IP, 10.00 ERA, 18.0 H/9, 6.0 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 2.75 GO/AO
Flores is a 19 year old who is coming off a strong year in the AZL. He has a rough start to his Northwest League career, logging just 9 innings in his first 3 starts.
41. Edwin Escobar
AZL: 8.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 10.8 H/9, 1.1 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 1.14 GO/AO
Augusta: 6.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 22.5 H/9, 7.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO
Escobar came to the Giants in exchange for the unconditional rights to Ben Snyder (after he had been selected in the Rule 5 draft) and his brother was recently signed by the Pirates for 570K. The Giants Escobar has done a good job of getting strikeouts, especially given his age but he struggled in his 4 Low A games.
42. David Quinowski
35.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, 6.8 H/9, 1.5 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.48 GO/AO
Quinowski finished last year at Richmond as back there for 2011. He has had a strong year though his strike out rate is a bit underwhelming, especially given his age. He has done a good job of limiting baserunners though as his walks and hits allowed are strong.
43. Carter Jurica
.239/.343/.381, 4 HR’s, 40:20 K:BB, 5/7 SB, 181 PA’s
Jurica was the surprised 3rd round pick from Kansas State last year and he struggled mightily at Salem-Keizer last year. He has had a better-though still underwhelming-year at San Jose this year and is now on the DL.
T44. Brandon Allen
15.1 IP, 8.22 ERA, 10.0 H/9, 5.3 BB/9, 2.3 K/9, 1.41 GO/AO
Allen was a tall athletic righthander who the Giants gave an overslot bonus last year. He started the year at Salem Keizer this year and has struggled in his Northwest league debut.
T44. Sundrendy Windster
4 IP, 6.75 ERA, 15.8 H/9, 6.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.5 GO/AO
Windster is the owner of the best name in the Giants system. He started the year at Low A Augusta as a hitter, but is now trying to make it as a pitcher.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I still believe on Culberson, Bond, and Cavan, though Culbie is making it pretty hard to scream about the hitting environment in Richmond with those stats. I guess I have some sort of 2B fetish.
Overall, I like the system quite a bit less than I did coming into the season. Peguero’s numbers in limited PT have been nice, but Brown has played to my expectations, not exceeded them. Surkamp’s been great, as has Verdugo, but Bucardo needs to come off the DL. For every positive (and there don’t seem to be too many) I can find a negative, and there are plenty of disappointments and injuries that make it hard to feel good about what’s been happening so far this season. We’re only halfway through, so there’s time to turn it around, but in the offseason it felt like the Giants had a bunch of sleepers and now it seems as though they weren’t sleeping, they were dead.
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Most underrated (so far!): Surkamp, Dominguez, Hembree, Verdugo, Hector Sanchez
Overrated: Culberson, Jones (injuries, but still), Casilla, Bucardo
Rosin seems like a flop. I really like the community’s ranking of Peguero who’s making us look pretty smart right now. Brandon Crawford, too.
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I’d add Dunnington to the underrated list. Very impressive for a 19 year old, UFA out of HS last year. I’d also add Crawford to the underrated list – what he’s done to cut down his K-rate at the ML level is really impressive. And his BABIP is really low, so I’m hoping for a bounce back there. Also, I knew his defense was good, but didn’t think it would be this good. In roughly 1/5 of a ML season, he’s put up a 0.6 fWAR.
I really hope Neal’s power outage is due to the shoulder injury earlier in the year and it comes back as he gets stronger. At minimum he’d provide a great RHH OF compliment to Schierholtz in years to come.
Adrianza adding power is very encouraging. He was something like 6’0" and 160 lbs. last year. Anyone know if he’s filled out a bit this past year?
Two words of caution on Hembree: Dan Runzler. The walks scare me, although he is quickly becoming a very, very good prospect.
Gillaspie is quietly having a solid year.
Sundrendy Windster will not be remembered if the Giants sign 50th round pick Waldyvan Estrada.
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
Hembree vs. Runzler: worth noting that Hembree’s k/9 (16.7) is much much higher than Runzler’s in his minor league career (and Runzler’s was an impressive 11.6) while is bb/9 is noticeably less (3.7 v. 5.1). Of course, Hembree’s walk numbers are suppressed by his highly impressive AZL performance last year (0 walks in 11 IP) and AZL stats are always somewhat useless, so maybe I shouldn’t make too much out of those numbers.
We know his velocity is catching the eye of scouts.
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Hembree
Two words of caution on Hembree: Dan Runzler. The walks scare me…
I don’t really see the comparison between Runzler and Hembree. Runzler had the 1 really great year in the minors in 2009 where he put up a K/9 = 12.7 and a BB/9 = 3.7. In every other year of his pro career he’s had much worse BB rates.
Hembree has been consistently in the 16.5 to 18 K/9 range in his minor league career, which is an order of magnitude beter than Runzler’s best year. Besides that, the vast majority of Hembree’s career walks (he’s walked 17 in 44 games) have come in only 2 games. In each of those 2 games he had 3 walks. Throw those 2 games out of the window and his BB/9 falls from 3.7 to 2.4. Look closer and you’ll see that in 32 of his 44 career appearances (or 73%) he has had no walks, while in 9 of his 44 appearances (or 20%) he has given up only 1 walk.
These are all SSS because he rarely pitches more than 1 inning per appearance, but I think the his record clearly shows that so far Hembree doesn’t have anywhere near the control issues that Runzler has.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I posted this in the Minor Lines, but does Hembree have any history as a starter?
I realize the FB is above and beyond his best pitch, and he profiles as a reliever. But any chance he could become a starter at some point?
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by Giant Fan in Singapore on Jul 6, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Hembree was a starter his entire career until the Fall of 2009. When he transferred from a JuCo to the College of Charleston for his junior year they switched him to the closer role during Fall ball. Mainly because he saw a big velocity gain over the summer of 2009 (from low-90s to mid-90s), but also because they had nobody else that could fill the role.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Thanks. Is there a reason the Giants aren't trying him back at starter?
"This is almost certainly a terrible idea. But I won't know for certain until I've actually done it." — Jez from Peep Show
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Jul 6, 2011 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
They probably don’t have confidence that he can develop a quality 3rd pitch. Also, from reports back in 2010, I seem to remember that his velocity was well down when he had to throw more than about 2 innings.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Granted, it’s a very imperfect comparison for lots of reasons, but you really don’t see any similarity? They were both drafted in the top-10 rounds of the draft, both with big fastballs and great K-rates. They both took off and in a single year rocketed through the system (with identical BB-rates in that big year – 3.7 BB/9). They were both touted as future closers and lauded as top-10 or even top-5 prospects in the system.
Yes, Hembree’s K-rates and his BB-rates are better than Runzler’s. And, yes, Runzler is left-handed. But early in their careers their narratives look pretty darn similar to me. That’s why I’m still cautious on Hembree – we went through this 2 years ago with Runzler and have been (so far) pretty deflated, imo.
The more general point I suppose I’m driving at is the problem with ranking relievers high at all due to sample sizes. For his entire professional career, Hembree has thrown 44 innings, which is way too small a sample size. Runzler has thrown only 162 innings in the minors and 61 in the majors, which isn’t terribly reliable when spread out over a 5 year period in which a pitcher is learning and changing a lot from year-to-year.
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
I mentioned this in minor lines: does anyone thing Runzler would have been more successful had he not lost so much time to injury last year? He looked pretty great when he first came up in 2009.
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I think so – his BB-rate was high (almost Sanchezian), but with a high BABIP and pretty good GB%. That adds up to pretty good, I think, with a more than decent chance of getting better.
He seems to have posted pretty high BABIPs throughout his career (outside of his fantastic 2009 season, which is looking more and more like an outlier).
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
I think there are some pretty significant differences though. Two that are particularly important: when Runzler was Hembree’s age he was a 17th round draft pick, while Hembree went in the 5th. That’s a big distinction. Also, at that point Runzler had pitched more. Hembree’s weird college career was such that he threw very few innings and was almost more legend than well-scouted reality.
The second huge difference is the Giants approach to the two players in assigning them in their first full season year. Runzler was held back in XST his first full year and then sent to short season ball in Salem Keizer, finishing his age 23 year out with 30 fairly bad innings in Augusta (6.9 bb/9!) and then at 24 was sent back to Augusta. Hembree on the other hand, was aggressively pushed to the Cal league at 22 and then promoted to AA half way through the year. It’s hard to overstate that difference in what the player personnel folks were seeing in ST out of those two arms.
It’s true that everything with RP is SSS, but the scout talk on Hembree at this point is: ceiling closer, floor, setup man. Like all relief pitchers his arm will no doubt fall off at some point, but I think the notion that we’re not looking at a middle reliever guy makes ranking him high perfectly acceptable. I think it’s very likely we get a few 1.5-2.0 Win seasons from him.
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That’s a great point about the age difference – it’s really important. And Runzler’s big year came in his 2nd full season, while Hembree has dominated from the get-go.
I’m just wary of ranking Hembree that high after feeling burned by Runzler.
Great points, though. And the comments from Callis below are reassuring.
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
Yeah, I see what you’re saying. There is a lot of similarities. The main point I wanted to make is that I don’t think it’s accurate to say that Hembree is a guy with control problems. For the type of pitcher he is, Hembree has shown better than average control. He’s really only had a contol issue in 2 of the 44 games that he pitched as a pro. Other than those 2 games he’s shown well above-average control. Runzler has only shown good control in 1 stop in his entire career – the 19 appearances he pitched for SJ in 2009. In every other top in his pro career his control has been below-average, and often scary.
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Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
All fair points and I can agree with them. After how many IP do BB-rates tend to stabilize?
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For a reliever that’s pitching so few innings and moving up the ladder quickly it’s almost impossible to say. For somebody like Hembree and Runzler you really have to wait until they get to the majors, or spend an entire season in AA or AAA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I’d add Gillaspie to the underrated list. For me, he’s probably ahead of Neal at this point.
Still not a believer in Peguero or Dominguez; plate discipline will be their undoing. Peguero at least has vroom and contact skills to fall back upon.
Peguero’s walk-rate, at last check, was something like ~9% — that’s quite the improvement over his ~3% walk-rate in San Jose last year. He is still a TOOLS guy, but his package is very interesting. SSS on the walks, too, but I love what he’s doing right now.
Dominguez IS underrated. That doesn’t mean he’s likely to pan out, but you’ve got to figure that he’s easily in the top 20 at this point. He has two major league ready tools in his power and arm. You’re right on his plate approach. I don’t think it will play at the higher levels, but he’s having a solid-ish year.
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I want to believe! But I can’t help but notice that all Peguero’s walking this year has been at San Jose. Since getting promoted, he has gone back to swinging away.
Well, he is hitting 350 and only has 5 k’s so it could be a adjustment period where the league is throwing him more strikes than balls.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jul 6, 2011 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Only a 1/5 bb/k in Richmond!
Peguero’s a speedy, strong-armed OF version of Panda maybe! I still think he’s a top 3 prospect in this system. I also agree (and I believe I said during the Community project) that Dominguez was underrated. I think if he can get the errant throws under control, he’ll end up with a major league career given his power. He can be a less power, better fielding Mark Reynolds maybe.
I don’t think Verdugo’s underrated, nor overrated. Probably rated just about right. Still seems a bit of a long-shot to me as a starter.
Interesting to note that Culberson and Kieschnick are having nearly identical offensive seasons. Not sure who comes off the worse in that comparison.
I’m also going to add Adam Duvall to the underrated list. He’s having a really interesting season. Don’t know what it means (and he’s yet another infielder who’s tipping the E charts in Augusta (when was the last season we didn’t have an infielder with 30 Es in Augusta, what’s with that?)
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The funny thing about the errors in Augusta is that it always seems to revolve around the 3B position – it’s like the Bermuda Triangle of the Giants minor league postions:
2009: Culberson
2010: Dominguez
2011: Duvall
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Well, Culby put up a 35 E season at SS in 2008 as well. And even Adrianza managed a 30 E season down there. Cavan had I think 26. It’s really been brutal. I wonder what shape the infield’s in at that stadium. With the Ripkens involved you’d think they’ tend it well (although I know the Ripkens are threatening to leave if the town doesn’t chip in with improvements).
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I admit that I’ve always rated Peguero well below you, but if he can continue to keep his K-rates below 18% (he’s currently below 11%!), while slugging over .450, going forward then he suddenly becomes a very, very good prospect in my view – even if the BB-rate falls back to around 4%.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
This
The K/BB rate is the problem, not either by itself. Peguero’s 2010 season in SJ raised red flags not because he wasn’t walking, but because he wasn’t walking and was striking out a ton. Miguel Tejada is a great example of a guy who didn’t walk much, but it didn’t matter because he never struck out either, and making lots of contact with his now-missing power led to some pretty successful seasons even if his IsoOBP was less than desirable.
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RE: Chuckie
Overrated: Culberson, Jones (injuries, but still), Casilla, Bucardo
Just curious, xanthan, how you can include Chuckie in your overrated group? I can see including him in the Most Disappointing group, but not that he was greatly overrated. I did think that #8 was too high when we vote, I had him at #10, but in our very thin system I didn’t (and still don’t) think it was a big stretch.
Just out of curiousity, once again, who would you rank ahead of Chuckie now? From what you just wrote, and from my faulty memory of your past writings, I’m guessing you have the rankings something like this:
Belt, Wheeler, Peguero, Brown, Surkamp, Sanchez, Hembree, Adrianza, Verdugo. That would make up a top 9 and then you would have a choice between guys like Crawford, Culberson, Dominguez, Neal and Chuckie for #10. Would you rate Chuckie lower than 10 or 11? Even if you had him down at #13 or 14 I can’t see how that would land him near the most overrated list.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Well, I thought Chuckie was a bit of an overhyped prospect last year around these parts. I disagreed with his original ranking, and his season this year has almost felt like a lost year. Hopefully he’ll be able to get healthy and get more at-bats.
I’m guessing you have the rankings something like this:
Belt, Wheeler, Peguero, Brown, Surkamp, Sanchez, Hembree, Adrianza, Verdugo.
That’s probably pretty close. I haven’t put a ton of thought into it. Contignent upon some of the new guys signing (Crick, Susac, Oropesa) I would probably place Jones between #15-20 on my list. That’s a pretty solid ranking, IMO. It’s one that’s mostly based on upside. I just hope he can get some reps this year.
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Also, I’m really not sure what to do with Neal. His power isn’t really showing up in the PCL right now and that’s kind of a scary thought. I hope his shoulder is feeling alright.
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Weren’t you down on Neal in the offseason? I seem to remember you being one of his detractors, but I may be mixing you up with somebody else.
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Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
And because I’m tacky, I’ll quote my blurb on him:
Neal is easily the closest thing (well, besides Brandon Belt) that the Giants have to position player depth near the major league level. The Eastern League is usually tough on hitters (league average OPS of .729 last season) and while Neal didn’t dominate the league, he was better than league average with his .799 OPS. Neal was 23rd in the league by OPS (min. 300 at-bats) but a lot of his company was non-prospects like Tagg Bozied (30-years-old), Hector Gimenez (27-years-old), and Justin Christian (30-years-old). Right now, he profiles as a 4th outfielder, but I’m still holding out a little hope that his talent lies somewhere between his outstanding 2009 Cal League campaign (1.010 OPS, 559 PAs) and last year in Richmond.
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Also, it’s kind of funny reading that since Brandon Crawford leapfrogged everyone to the majors.
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Correia won his 11th game of the season, tied with All-Stars Roy Halladay and Jair Jurrjens for most in the National League, after the voting was announced. The most impressive part of Correia’s resume is the fact that 9 of those wins came on the road.
100 ERA+, 4.15 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, 0.9 WAR … All-Star!
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The most impressive part of Correia’s resume is the fact that 9 of those wins came on the road.
Because there’s no better marker of all-star quality than road wins.
This is so stupid!
This means he sucks at home. And (and here’s the kicker!) the NL is at HOME in the all-star game this year.
He definitely should be left off the team.
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I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
Giant Torture was the big Neal detractor. Can’t really remember anyone else.
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Oh, yeah, the new guys will definitely push Chuckie down to around #15 in my list also. I was talking purely about where you would put him now based on last year’s list. I do agree with you that Chuckie was over-hyped when we voted last year (a lot due to my fanpost), but our system was so thin that ranking him around #10 wasn’t a big stretch.
BTW, barring another injury, Jones should be back before the end of this month (Torres was back and playing inside of 4 weeks of his appendectomy last year) so he should get close to 100 ABs this summer. Yeah, that would be quite disappointing. I’m guessing they send him to some winter league in the offseason.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Wow, Wheeler must be striking out upwards of 50 batters per 9 with those peripherals.
Kickham where it hurts
Isn’t there some conventional wisdom that Tommy Joseph will eventually be moved to 1B?
Also, I love Cavan. I know his hitting isn’t great, but I love his D. I’ve seen him make several great plays at 2B. Just fun to watch.
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Yes, there is.
Good hear the eyewitness report about Cavan. He seems like an underdog that I could really root for.
What can (Gary) Brown do for you?
Cavan's defense is good?
I thought it was the bat that made him interesting and he really had issues in the field.
I’m hoping that Joseph can become Victor Martinez; sure, he’s not going to win any Gold Gloves (or maybe he will with his LTP), but if he can be the backup C and spell Posey once or twice a week as a good bat and mediocre glove while playing the rest of his games at 1B or 3B or something that’s a really great thing to have. It lets Posey get some rest and prevents the Giants from sticking a Whiteside behind the plate twice a week.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’m just using my “eyes” for his D, so you can ignore my analysis. I’m not qualified to make any real assessments here! But, I have seen him make several exciting defensive plays at 2B, like diving stops and the like. They especially stand out in the Cal League where defense often leaves a lot to be desired. I don’t remember seeing him having defensive issues ever. But, again, I’ve only been to 12 games (though he’s played in 2B in most, if not all of them), so take it for what it’s worth which isn’t much.
Thanks for the reply on Tommy Joseph. Interesting.
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
"Things I never thought I'd see #47783: Schwarzenegger applauding Ryan Rohlinger" -- Your mother, Nov. 3, 2010.
by kdl on Jul 7, 2011 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I can't speak to his range, but Cavan has way less errors this year than he did last year
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by Gobroks on Jul 7, 2011 9:36 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
But I’m loathe to trust fielding percentage as a barometer of defensive ability, particularly in the minor leagues.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeah minor league official scorers make some minor league quality decisions. It’s also true that there’s very little consistency in the quality of fields in the minors — nothing like you’ll find in the major leagues.
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“fewer” errors
/owlcroft
//howtheyscored
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 8, 2011 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Gah. Stupid grammar
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by Gobroks on Jul 10, 2011 1:20 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
RE: Zack Wheeler
Gobroks wrote:
…and [he] is no longer getting groundballs at the rate he did last year.
I think that you’ll find that the Cal League has a very adverse affect on all pitcher’s groundball rates. The vase majority of the stadiums are located in low-humidity and high-heat environments. In addition, many of the stadiums are in thin air, high desert environments. All-in-all the entire league is not conducive to throwing good breaking balls and sinkers.
Of course, Wheeler was never going to come anywhere close to the 2.68 GO/AO ratio that he posted last year as he climbed the ladder, but I do think you’ll see his 2011 ratio of 1.22 go up by at least 25% when he gets in the EL. That’s a damn good ratio for a strikeout pitcher with Wheeler’s velocity profile. For comparison’s sake, Surkamp’s GO/AO in the Sally, CAL, and EL are as follows:
2009 – SAL: 1.16
2010 – CAL: .91
2011 – EL: 1.11
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I wish there was a decent historical archive for looking historically at minor league pitcher’s walk rates as they rise through the minors. I’m developing a hypothesis that the lower minors tend to skew some pitchers walk rates because of the level of hitting competition (essentially: younger, weaker, worse hitters). But since I can’t find any way of, for instance, going back and looking at Matt Cain’s walk rates in the Sally, I can’t figure out a way to check it out.
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Is your hypothesis that the lower minors skew the BB numbers higher or lower? Another thing to think of is that the umpires tend to be much worse in the lower minors – especially in how they call balls and strikes. Also, the vast majority of catchers in the lower minors have no aptitude at framing pitches and making their pitchers look better to the umps.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
No. As I said below, I meant to write GB rates. My theory is that the lower quality, and generally younger and weaker hitters, will exaggerate groundball rates in the rookie leagues and lower A ball.
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I think you’re onto something. While no means definitive, I remember this article basically saying what you’re saying.
Adopted father of Chris Lincecum, without whom (quite literally) Timmy would not exist.
Doesn’t bbref have walk rates for milb pitchers and leagues?
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jul 6, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Ah damn. Major typo — I meant GB rates. BB rates are easy to find, but GB rates are much more difficult.
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Ah OK. Now your hypothesis makes more sense!
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jul 6, 2011 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
This review is awesome
Thanks for putting it together.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
by marcello on Jul 6, 2011 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 6 recs
Thanks, Gobroks
always a good read!
Adopted Giant: Jacob Dunnington. Will your team regret passing up on my boy 50 times?
by TimLaser and MattyC on Jul 6, 2011 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks, happy to do it
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by Gobroks on Jul 6, 2011 11:50 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Couple Giants comments from Jim Callis in today's chat
in answer to a couple of my questions:
Roger (Washington, DC): Surkamp with 102K, 27 BB in 90 IP with 1.61 ERA. He’s looking more and more like a future successful major league 4/5 starter, no? Also, are Hembree’s BBs as big a red flag as his Ks are a green flag?
Jim Callis: I agree on Surkamp. Not a huge ceiling, but he’s lefthanded and keeps succeeding. Not even sure it’s fair to call him a sleeper any longer. That’s a little harsh on Hembree. The way I would put it is that his ability to become a big league closer depends on his ability to improve his control and command. But he still can be a setup man with less than exemplary control/command—his arm is that good.
Roger (Washington DC): If Francisco Peguero develops 15-18 HR power (5 in 28 games this year), how good of a prospect does he become? Good enough to be a starting RF in majors?
Jim Callis: He’s already a good prospect who projects as a starting RF. Solid bat, solid power, good speed and defensive tools.
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I asked a question about Adam Duvall, too, but I think it found the digital circular.
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I doubt that he has much inside info on Duvall in his head or at his fingertips.
I do also think he’s being a bit disingenuous to say that Peguero has “solid power” – before this year’s extremely SSS surge. His ISO power of .159 in the Cal League last season does not show solid power in my book. A future RF of his age should have been well above that level in the power-happy CAL. I also disagree with his projection as a starting RF. I still think his most likely projection in the majors is as a starting CF. Probably not with the Giants, though.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
No, I meant that he probably won’t get a lot of PT in CF in SF – not that he won’t play RF in SF.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I’ve always maintained he’s likely to be a late power-developer and that with his defense he’ll make a very good RF. I said before this season began that if they were somehow forced to play Peguero in the majors this year that I thought he could match or exceed Schierholtz’ production and I still don’t think that’s outrageous. And going forward I don’t think it’s any question who will be the better hitter. Nice to hear from Callis, though that scouts think the power’s there, too.
As for Duvall, he’s certainly been talking to the Sally scouts as they get ready for their midseason Top 50, so he’d have heard something along the way.
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Personal lists
So who’s up for a confessional session? How did everybody do so far with their personal lists? Here’s my midseason review of my own rankings:
2 Best Calls
1. I had Jose Casilla at #23 on my list. What was everybody else thinking voting him at #10?
2. I had Heath Hembree at #8. The CPL at #17 was way too pessimistic.
2 Worst Calls
1. I had Hector Sanchez at #25. What was I thinking with that crazy talk!?
2. I had Eric Surkamp at #12. Clearly he was way better than that.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
In my defense (somewhat), I didn’t dispute Sanchez’s talent – I just didn’t believe that he had the drive to succeed at such a difficult position and in a difficult competitive environment. As for Surkamp, I did explicitly state that I would rank him inside the top 10 if I had any reports on how the hip surgery and rehab had affected his pitching.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I kind of make those things up when I write them, but in general I was definitely too low on Sanchez and too high on Joseph. And too low on Parker. It remains to be seen on a lot of guys because of injuries (Peguero who I had at 3 and Adrianza who I had somewhere around 7 ish?). I think I had Surkamp around 10 and that seems ok coming off the hip surgery. I think I had Casilla around that point, too (maybe 11 or 12?) although I noted that his season in Augusta last year was a step back and that he was getting too old to be so far down in the system. Perhaps the onset of injury was already at work.
In the end, I think this was/is a system with so little obvious impact (after the very top) that it gets easy to go a lot of different ways after about 2.
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This reminds me: Where the hell is Cookyman???? He was Hector Sanchez’s best advocate on these lists.
Where the hell is Cookyman????
That’s an excellent, excellent question! When did Cookyman disappear off the face of the planet?
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This was the last thread he posted in. Shame he’s gone.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
He was around the entering college age, right?
Lives show up around then pretty often.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
Worst
I was too low on Brown and Hembree, and too high on Casilla/Bucardo.
I was also fairly high on Gillaspie and Sanchez.
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by Gobroks on Jul 7, 2011 12:15 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I think we all get a pass on Bucardo. You can’t be dinged when a pitcher comes up with a sore shoulder and sits out the season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I didn’t have a specific list, but my best and worst calls:
Best: Surkamp. I voted for him early and often.
Worst: Peguero. I thought he would get killed with that walk rate, but he keeps on hitting.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 8, 2011 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Personal list
I think I did pretty well:
1. Brandon Belt
2. Zack Wheeler
3. Thomas Neal
4. Gary Brown
5. Jorge Bucardo
6. Francisco Peguero
7. Eric Surkamp
8. Brandon Crawford
9. Mike Kickham
10. Hector Sanchez
11. Ehire Adrianza
12. Tommy Joseph
13. Seth Rosin
14. Jarrett Parker
15. Jason Stoffel
16. Heath Hembree
17. Chuckie Jones
18. Charlie Culberson
19. Jose Casilla
20. Brock Bond
21. Conor Gillaspie
22. Roger Kieschnick
23. Ryan Cavan
24. Juan Perez
25. Michael Main
26. Nick Noonan
27. Johnny Monell
28. Clayton Tanner
29. Kendry Flores
30. Jake Dunning
Biggest oversight was probably leaving Dominguez off the top 30 entirely, second biggest was dropping Hembree to 16, third was probably putting Kickham No. 9 which seems high now.
Overall, though, I think I made a lot of good calls. If I had to write a list again right now it would look a lot like this one; a few minor changes but not many big jumps other than the aforementioned Dominguez, Hembree, and Kickham.
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Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
You don’t think you would rate Bucardo, Rosin and Stoffel lower?
Check out www.catch-28.com. You will find a lot of fawning over Buster Posey and some Giants analysis that you could probably find anywhere else. I appreciate any and all feedback.
Bucardo is hard to call because he hasn’t pitched yet (which I believe is due to injury). Perhaps that drops his stock a little, but not more than a few places. I’ve always been high on him anyway, and I don’t think I’d drop him outside the top 10 due to inactivity.
I’m a little biased on Rosin, but it’s hard to know what to think there. He pitches three innings in relief and is great, and then he pitches three innings as a starter because he’s getting blown up and gets taken out before the fourth. Even so, his ERA is find and his FIP is under 3; the strikeouts are a little low, but he’s actually walking more people than I would expect going forward and his BB/9 is still under 3. Maybe he loses a few places but has Joseph really outperformed him this year? Kickham? Even if Hembree, Dominguez, and Parker move ahead of Rosin, he still doesn’t lose more than two places because I think Kickham goes lower now with the poor results.
I’d say Stoffel OTOH has actually improved. A 3.24 FIP versus 3.16 in SJ; he’s in a much more pitcher-friendly environment and the K’s have gone down, but so have the walks, and he moved up a level. At the very least he hasn’t lost any ground, and I have a problem rating the 2nd best relief prospect in the system lower than 15th.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Rosin’s issue sure seems to be in his head right now. He’s been a really good reliever over the past 6 weeks (and not just for 1 inning), with high K-rates and very decent bb-rates, but as soon as they give him a start he seems to forget how to pitch. Steve Kline needs to work on what’s between his ears.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Agree with everything but
I think even with Kickham’s struggles the talent is still there, you can see it. I would personally put him a spot or so higher than Rosin.
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jul 13, 2011 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting that BA ranks Gary Brown ahead of Zack Wheeler (barely)
BA Midseason Top 50 Prospects (blog)
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
My top 30 looked something like this:
1 Brandon Belt
2 Zack Wheeler
3 Thomas Neal
4 Gary Brown
5 Francisco Peguero
6 Ehire Adrinaza
7 Thomas Joseph
8 Jarrett Parker
9 Brandon Crawford
10 Erik Surkamp
11 Jose Casilla
12 Michael Kickham
13 Richard Hembree
14 Seth Rosin
15 Charles Jones
16 Hector Sanchez
17 Charlie Culberson
18 Connor Gillaspie
19 Jorge Buccardo
20 Roger Kieschnick
21 Rafael Rodriguez
22 Jeremy Stoffel
23 Juan Perez
24 Chris Dominguez
25 Jake Dunning
26 Edwin Escobar
27 Kendry Florez
28 Marvin Barios
29 Ryan Verdugo
30 Nick Noonan
Way over-rated Casilla. I think I was swayed by John Sickles who was pumping him up quite a bit before the season.
Obviously Verdugo has risen a lot.
Some day I’m going to give up my Noonan addiction.
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
This is a good list
Joseph and Adrianza are a little high for me but that’s not too bad. My policy on relievers is always one of caution, particularly for a Low-A reliever with one pro season. If Hembree/Stoffel show up in Fresno and strike everyone out that’s different, but I never got the Casilla hype; there’s just too much risk there.
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Lest anybody read the list and object, Brandon Belt wasn’t considered eligible for this list because, administratively, he is currently still a major leaguer (that is, he is currently on major league rehab assignment, and thus procedurely speaking he is using up major league service time at the moment). That’s a thin line to draw, but they draw it across the board (in the subscriber version they specifically note Belt’s case, but not in the free version, so I thought I’d spell it out).
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I think Belt was just optioned to Fresno, so perhaps they should update it?
Check out Catch-28.com. You will find a lot of fawning over Buster Posey and some Giants analysis that you could probably find anywhere else. I appreciate any and all feedback.
No doubt he would be #1. The BA guys have loved him since seeing him extensively in the AFL last October and November.
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Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
You mean the #1 Giants prospect, of course? I think he would fit in around #20 overall.
Check out Catch-28.com. You will find a lot of fawning over Buster Posey and some Giants analysis that you could probably find anywhere else. I appreciate any and all feedback.
I’d still discourage people from getting too down on Joseph. It’s clear that he needs to improve his approach to hitting, but he’s very young (in fact, he’s a month shy of being the youngest player in the Cal league) and he does have time to improve his approach. The raw power tool that he was highly drafted for I think is pretty clearly there if he can figure out a way to utilize it in games, and despite a lot of talk that he’ll have to move off C the org has stuck with him there for 2 years and I think they’ve been pleasantly surprised by his performance there (though I also think that working on his defensive development behind the plate could well be detracting from working on his offensive development in the long run).
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I originally asked about the move to 1B, but thinking about it now, the move of Sanchez to AAA demonstrated that the org does see Tommy as a C and wants him to get his reps there. I hope it’s not affecting his hitting development. While Sanchez was there, he was DHing some, which was interesting.
Also, I always forget how young he is, because he looks so much older. (Unlike, say, Adrianza who looks like he’s about 14.)
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by kdl on Jul 7, 2011 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Adrianza’s also younger than most of his teammates by a significant margin (a year younger than Brown, two years younger than Cavan, about 9 months younger than Parker). Considering he had surgery on his thumb three months ago, I’m really pleasantly surprised with how his (abbreviated) season is going so far. I hope he keeps it up, and I’d love to see him get a month in at Richmond (though from a roster perspective, I don’t see that happening).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
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I hope that they leave Joseph in SJ in 2012. He really needs another year in a hitter’s environment. I also think that he instantly becomes a hell of a lot less valuable if he can’t stick at C, so I have no problem with him hurting his offense by concentrating on his defensive skills now. It would be great if they moved Decker back to SJ next year to work with Joseph, btu we know that ain’t going to happen.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I know a lot of people in the game think quite highly of Steve Decker. To be honest I wonder how much longer we’ll be able to keep him in the system. He seems like a natural managing candidate to me. And in an industry that just dragged 80 and 70 year old retreads out of the crypt, you’d think somebody would find him eventually, especially if the Giants can managed to fumbel their way back to the post-season again, keeping a certain cache for the “Giants brand”. He’s already got to have some draft in people’s eyes from Posey’s amazing rookie year.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
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Yeah, if he turns Hector into a decent catcher he’ll really be the annointed guru. However, I don’t see that he’s in huge demand as a manager on the major league level. He just doesn’t have the name that a Ryne Sandberg, Steve Buechele, and several other guys do. Decker has never even gotten an interview from any team. Unless Decker gets put on the major league staff in SF for a few years, or the Grizzlies go on a sustained 2 year run of winning baseball I just don’t see that the Giants are in great danger of having Decker be hired away as a major league manager in the next 3 years. On the other hand, I could see Decker getting fed up and leaving the org on his own, or being hired away to be somebody’s major league bench coach.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
Yeah his ISO is encouraging and he is young
If his defense is improving then yeah he becomes very interesting. I imagine next year he’ll be back in SJ and split time with Susac (assuming he signs) like he did with Sanchez at the start of the year
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by Gobroks on Jul 7, 2011 9:40 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
don’t we need a minor league stat page that scrapes the data from milb.com and other sites?
seems like we could list the prospects in order and include DOB, year + round + number drafted, etc in the stat line…and then our experts on here could re-rank them every month or every few months or so….
I actually have a spreadsheet very much like that that I update every day (not for everybody, but about 30 players and maybe 25 pitchers), though i’m not sure how I’d get that hosted somewhere where others could access it.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
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First Inning has a nice player tracker. That’s the main reason I like that site. You can track a bunch of players on one page and see how they did in yesterdays games.
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Definitely agree – love the First Inning player tracker.
Hector Sanchez: Now coming to you live from Fresno!
i’ll kick in $20 if we could get a real site….something like Google Docs would host a spreadsheet for free i think but if we had a web designer that knows a little bit of programming(scraping stats off milb, etc) a real site with SFG prospects related stuff would be a great reference….
by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 7, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
It might be great to generate comments, but re-ranking prospects on a monthly or bi-monthly basis is really not worth the effort. You really need a full season of results to truly digest a player’s evolution.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
wouldn’t have to be anything major…..just the experts on here – yourself, Roger, Gobroks and a few others could maybe re-rank as they see fit every few months or so during the season?….kind of a wiki? i think most of us don’t care too much about being precise in the rankings but its nice to know roughly where they stand….
and it would be great to see one comprehensive page of current stats with our top 40 or 50 prospects instead of like now if you go to milb.com you have to wade thru a bunch of non-prospects and mlb vets on rehab on the stat page….
by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 7, 2011 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
and i should say, not entirely re-rank but just move a few players here and there where its obvious…
by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 7, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean to throw cold water on the database idea – I think that would be a real asset to have available. I just wanted to caution against making major ranking changes based on only 30 to 45 games of data in the middle of the season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
not a big deal….i guess there isn’t enough interest yet…i think i could spring for a real website but i don’t know how to do the design and how to scrape the stats off milb or the other sites so that they update automatically…
by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 8, 2011 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
man i miss seeing angel v.’s name on these lists
by Headhunter Rollins on Jul 7, 2011 1:54 PM PDT reply actions
I thought this was going to be a prospect list of the MCC community...
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by slackersphere17 on Jul 18, 2011 6:05 PM PDT reply actions
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