Neal for Cabrera: Worse Than You Think
by quincy0191 on Jul 30, 2011 8:52 PM PDT
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PrintLet's just start with the obvious: Orlando Cabrera sucks, and he does nothing for this team. There was no reason to get him. Zero. He's old and bad; the best thing that can be said is he's cheap. And he's cheap for a reason: he sucks. It may seem like I'm repeating myself, but I hope Brian Sabean reads this and on the tiny chance he does I want to make it perfectly clear: Orlando Cabrera is a bad player.
What's worse, though, is that he's Miguel Tejada. Seriously. They are identical players this season, and Miggy's actually been slightly better. Here's what I mean:
G PA H HR RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld Bsr WAR
Tejada: 82 322 73 4 28 4 3.7% 9.6% .093 .255 .242 .274 .334 .260 59 1.5 -1.2 -0.1
Cabrera: 90 344 79 4 34 6 3.8% 11.6% .077 .265 .244 .277 .321 .268 66 -7.2 0.6 -0.6
It's not just that their slash lines are the same. Their BB% and K% are the same. Their BABIPs are the same. Tejada's defensive numbers are actually better, likely the primary driver of a 0.5 WAR advantage, which would be impressive if he was above replacement level; Cabrera can also still play short according to UZR, as Tejada derives his value from 2B/3B and Cabrera has terrible numbers when not playing SS. Their wOBAs are the same. They're both right-handed hitting over-35 shortstops who should probably retire. Their G, PA, H, HR, R, and SB numbers are almost identical. Hell, Cabrera is 5'10", 194 pounds and Tejada is 5'9", 210 pounds.
The only perceptible difference I can find are in their RBI and LD%. Cabrera's got 38 RBI to Tejada's 26, and a 20.1% LD% compared to 13.3%. Tejada is also on the DL, though unless his injury is much worse than everyone thinks it is that shouldn't matter as he would be back pretty soon.
Therefore there can be only four possible reasons why the Giants decided to trade their highest-level OF prospect for a carbon copy of Tejada:
1. They think they're getting a "proven RBI man". Cabrera's 38 ribbies dwarf Tejada's 26. If this is the case all hope is lost.
2. They realize Cabrera's BABIP is actually lower than it should be given his high LD% and are buying low on an infielder who might not be done and can actually play shortstop. If this is the case I will prance with joy, but excuse me if I don't start stretching quite yet.
3. Tejada is going to be out much longer than we originally thought and the Giants just could not survive without a 36/37-year-old RHH SS with a wOBA in the .260 range so they got another one.
4. Thomas Neal is completely done due to injuries or just being bad and/or we have a glut of outfielders at the major league level and Sabean wanted to get what he could before Neal's value fell further. He was reminded of the absent Tejada's haunting musk while scouting Cabrera.
I don't get it. Cabrera's xBABIP is almost certainly close to .300 with the 20% LD%, but something tells me that's not why Sabean bit, and I think it's rationality coupled with history. Neal may indeed be a 4th OF, but he showed in San Jose he's capable of much more, and selling low (or what appears to be low) on him doesn't make much sense. Even if Neal is nothing and Cabrera is primed for a bounceback, it doesn't make sense that Cabrera would cost anything given the year he's had so far. The fact that Cleveland just got Ubaldo Jiminez means they're trying to make a run this year, and that they would trade Cabrera away should tell us all we need to know: he's not a piece of a playoff team.
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+1
This makes no sense to me.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 31, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
+1
It’s like Sabes just can’t learn the lesson of trading/signing guys like Jose Guillen and Tejada. Every year he’s got to do at least one deal that includes a washed-up player who can barely field their supposed positions and can’t hit for a league-average wOBA, but is basically handed a starting spot on the team.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
by Fla-Giant on Jul 31, 2011 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
Your comment makes me angry
because it’s true… And now I’m just sad.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
I believe the technical term for such behavior patterns is . . .
. . . incompetent.
This is not news. Sabean is a passed master at Subtraction By Addition.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I remember that there was a moment last year, after a loss, where I resigned myself to the Giants not being able to put a championship team on the field.
I was wrong then, but this is the equivalent moment for this year.
All the hope, maybes, what-if’s, and rosterbation turns into reality. We will not win a damn thing with a middle infield of Tejada, Cabrera, Fontenot and Keppinger.
COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. Stolen 6/11/11.
Job 1:14-15
Don't forget Burriss and Hall!
Integral parts of a championship club!
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Burriss, yes . . .
. . . Hall could have been useful as a Juan Uribe type. He still could be if they would let Mark De Rosa play second until and unless he breaks down again. De Rosa’s bat is better than Keppinger’s and he could scarcely be a weaker fielder.
Another major problem with this organization is that though Sabean and Bochy are both hugely incompetent, they are incompetent at right angles: Bochy, even when given a decent player or two, sticks to shovelling the crap out onto the field. There is (just as an example) no reason in the world why Fontenot and De Rosa aren’t the everyday middle infield, with Hall as the reserve.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
i wanted to see Hall get a few more chances too….don’t see how it happens now though…
by repeat_in_2011 on Aug 13, 2011 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Why do you keep insisting De Rosa’s bat is better than Keppinger’s? He is 36 and hasn’t played in two years due to a wrist injury that has never gone away. This is evidenced in his terrible performance with the Giants, and more recently, his crappy minor league rehab. He is absolutely finished. The Giants just can’t give up on a sunken cost when it means admitting they were wrong.
Check out Catch-28.com, a blog about Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants.
Then why is he on the roster?
With the problems they have, I cannot see them adding a man who effectively cannot play. I think you are assuming more than you know; but if you have links to reasonably reliable sources saying that his wrist is still bad, I would be interested to see them.
As to his being 36, yes, one could expect some very modest fall-off from his career-to-date value, but—in accordance with the graph I have posted more than once—not much of a falloff, and he is quite significantly better than Keppinger over career numbers. One might instead ask why you keep insisting that men fall to the ground dead when they reach their middle 30s, despite all the data strongly suggesting otherwise. OK, here, I’ll re-re-post it:
Now De Rosa doesn’t quite fit the category, because he hasn’t 5000 PAs, but the curve doesn’t shift that drastically (you could seek out MGL’s two-part article and look it up). As I have said repeatedly, if you follow the curve taking running averages, a man’s cumulative career value actually understates his current-season value till a break-even at roughly 35, then a small over-value at 36.
So the short answer is “Because it is”. Plus he is, by all reports, actually able to move side to side a bit in the field, which would also be an improvement.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
If the Giants make the world series again, how much money will they leave off the roster?
Zito, 18.5
Jonathan Sanchez, 4.8
Tejada, 6
Derosa, 6
Freddy Sanchez, 6
Those 5 are ~41.3 million
possibly Rowand, 13.6
If Rowand doesn’t make it then its about 55 million. lolz
"I never stop being amazed by how much people who hate stats because they’re "flawed" quote so much more obviously flawed stats. " -Joe Posnanski
by RichHerreraHomer on Jul 31, 2011 12:02 AM PDT reply actions
Sanchez would make the roster as a reliever over Mota or Casilla.
Check out Catch-28.com. A blog about Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants.
He'd make it as a mop-up long reliever over Mota
No question about that IMO. Maybe as another LOOGY for Philadelphia just because we can “waste” a LOOGY on one hitter late in a game since we’d have 2-3 depending on how you view Affeldt.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I'd like Sanchez to start against Philadelphia
But that’s just my personal (possibly irrational and way off the mark) feeling that he usually pitches well against them.
Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.
Like in game 6 of the NLCS last year?
This is not a signature.
by Tim Lincecum's Bong on Jul 31, 2011 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
It was all part of the plan!
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 31, 2011 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Rowand
will be there because they need his veteran bat off the bench and to fill in the inevitable platoon.
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jul 31, 2011 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions
If Rowand is left off the roster, who will leadoff?
"...more often than not, it’s factually based."
by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 31, 2011 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
also correct
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jul 31, 2011 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
OUCH
that’s painful to look at!
"I have talent that's there, but I just have the mentality right now that I just want to be the greatest. And I don't think that any other player has that right now." -DeMarcus Cousins
by Noble_Bloodlines on Jul 31, 2011 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
i don’t see the point of getting Cabrera unless he was quite a bit better defensively than the rest at SS, which it doesn’t sound like he is anymore…
for Neal i’ve been disappointed in this year especially but it could be injury related as he had a hot streak before being sent to the DL again….believe he was around #83 in BA’s Top 100 prospects after his season at San Jose so the potential was there not too long ago…
by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 31, 2011 12:51 AM PDT reply actions
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I basically see it like this
Cabrera is (probably) conservatively about average defensively as a shortstop right now. I’m just estimating roughly based on his career 3.1 UZR at short and taking age into account. He has a career 95 wRC+ against lefties.
Tejada is (probably) conservatively about -8, maybe -10 at short. He has a career 121 wRC+ against lefties. Honestly, how much difference is it between the two? A couple runs, MAYBE? (
What about Kepp. He’s pretty bad at short — probably like a -10 to -12 defender. But Kepp has also teed off against lefties in his career, hitting for a 133 wRC+. If we’re talking about overall production between the three at short, against lefties only, it doesn’t look like much of difference between the three.
Even if you only go by this year’s splits (and if you do, I can’t believe you just went there), where Cabrera is outhitting Tejada 110 wRC+ to 80 wRC+, Keppinger is fucking killing it with a 194 wRC+.
In the end, this deal wasn’t that significant, I probably spent too much time talking about it, but it was just really pointless.
- That said, if Tejada’s “out” for the rest of the season, I guess it’s more of an “OK, fine” acquisition.
Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.
I think they are trying to get Fontenot a platoon partner
and no longer see Tejada as a short stop.
intentionally trading
for a platoon player seems even dumber than trading for a duplicate of a guy on the roster already.
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jul 31, 2011 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe
the thinking is: “we’re more likely to find lightning in TWO bottles than just one.”
It’s kind of like a wealth building system that involves filling your front lawn with rusty half-running cars.
"...more often than not, it’s factually based."
Sickels calls Thomas Neal a C+ prospect as of today
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/31/2307859/prospect-in-the-orlando-cabrera-trade
=============
and over on the front page of the Indians SB Nation site they said Cabrera had lousy range even for a 2nd baseman…
from Lets Go Tribe:
Orlando Cabrera finishes his stint with the Indians with a .244/.277/.321 line, good for a 69 OPS+. That the Indians received a prospect for him is remarkable, and speaks to Cabrera’s reputation that even though he should no longer be starting for major-league club, at least one GM was willing to trade an actual prospect for him. Cabrera in his prime was a very good defender at shortstop, but he’s a long way from his prime. As a second baseman with the Indians, his range wasn’t that great, and the Giants are going to start him at shortstop. Good luck with that. Cabrera for the season has a WAR (Wins above Replacement) of -0.1; even Miguel Tejada, who was having a poor season before the injury, had contributed a positive WAR (0.8).
With Jason Donald healthy and hitting well in Columbus (.306/.395/.445), and the Giants willing to give up a prospect, this a no-brainer from the Indians’ perspective.
http://www.letsgotribe.com/2011/7/30/2306616/indians-deal-orlando-cabrera-to-giants
===============
not a big deal but i would rather they didn’t give Neal away for almost nothing…
how is Cabrera, aside from stats, comparative to Omar Vizquel when he joined the Giants?
not bad considering Tejada might be out for an extended period of time. i think im only think of the darker side of the trade while being overly optimistic of Thomas Neal’s leftover potential.
by big logs Johnson on Jul 31, 2011 3:01 PM PDT reply actions
Vizquel was sitll a borderline plus defender (at the very least he was above-average) at SS when with the Giants. Cabrerea hits like Vizquel and fields like Tejada – not a pretty combination.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
This just in...
When asked about the Cabrera deal Sabean answered,
“I wouldn’t have traded Neal for such a short-term rental as Cabrera if Dick Tidrow hadn’t assured me that we have enough pitching depth in the system to overcome the loss of Neal.”
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I'm being dense here but
what does pitching depth have to do with Neal?
Neal is not a pitcher, so therefore, trading him does not affect the pitching depth in the system. Sabean made absolutely sure this was the case, by checking in with Tidrow, and getting his assurance. Due diligence was required, especially since Neal is not a pitcher, to satisfy Sabean’s concern that this trade would not be harmful to the depth of pitching in the farm system. Whew! Sabes is craftier than we thought!
"...more often than not, it’s factually based."
by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 31, 2011 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Good analysis, but...
… My quote was a total parody. I thought it would be obvious to all. I just took what Sabes said after trading Wheeler for Beltran and massaged the names. My point was that this was a clueless trade by Sabes and he deserves to be mocked for making it.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Keep an eye on my son, Jake "The Jacksonville Rifle" Dunning. From SS to the mound - exclusively toeing the rubber since March 2010.
I was really surprised to see Sabes effectively lump Neal in with Sosa and Stoffel as “unimportant” in his quotes yesterday. I’m really starting to wonder how bad his shoulder is. (not that this should be read as a justification for the Cabrera trade; I’m with the mockers and the ragers on that one).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
What was expected?
“I want you all to know that we gave up a pretty valuable prospect for a worse than mediocre old rental player”?
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I loved it!
Best comment I have read regarding this clusterchunk of a trade season. Keppinger had me psyched. Beltran’s price had be sighing. Then, Cabrera made me puke. The Tidrow satire was wonderful.
"A new day will dawn for those who stand long." - Led Zeppelin
by The Wisdom Cow on Jul 31, 2011 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
The title of this post reminds of me a one-man play I once saw called:
DEATH: The Bad News
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Reminds me of when my uncle called my mom and started the conversation by saying, “Do you remember Aunt Esther?”
My mom said: “Yes, of course!”
My Uncle responded, “Well, she is dead.”
From that moment on, whenever anyone dies, members of my family report the death by saying, “Remember …?”
In a very round-about way, I think he was trying to say, “so the good news is you remember this person. The bad news is that they are dead.”
Even better
If you don’t remember them you don’t care!
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
2. They realize Cabrera’s BABIP is actually lower than it should be given his high LD% and are buying low on an infielder who might not be done and can actually play shortstop. If this is the case I will prance with joy, but excuse me if I don’t start stretching quite yet.
I believe in the Goldfarb!!!
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
Coming back to the question of Cabrera's defense as shortstop
I’ve missed most of the last two games, but prior to those I’ve come away with the impression that Cabrera is a far superior shortstop than Tejada.
Even though it’s a SSS, my eye tells me he decent range, soft hands, moves well and a pretty good arm, especially comapred to Tejada looked clunky and stumbly.
Am I the only one who’s been surprised by Cabrera’s defense after all the initial reports that Cabrera is a terrible fielder?
The thong is, it happened.
I'm sorry, but . . .
. . . being a huge improvement over Tejada (even letting “huge” go without comment) is like saying Brandon Crawford’s bat would be a huge improvement over Brian Bocock’s.
Cabrera’s bat is barely major-league, and his defense is by now below average. It was Subtraction By Addition.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Defensively, Cabrera isn't Brandon Crawford.
But he is a huge improvement over Tejada and probably an improvement over Fotejnot/Keppinger at ss. I have to agree with Goofus and am suprised by his decent range, good hands and arm.
Furthermore he isnt an automatic out like Crawford at the plate. While its a ss, I’ve been impressed with his at bats thus far (but no he shouldnt be batting 5th ever).
Would i’d rather have Hardy or Furcal or someone similar, YES, but that doesnt mean the Cabrera for Neal trade is a horrible trade. Neal isnt likely to amount to much and may very well be damaged goods. Which makes the trade at worst a no loss no gain proposition.
"isn't likely to amount to much"
Is pretty different than “at worst a no loss no gain proposition”. We saw from Neal’s SJ stint that he has excellent offensive potential. Whether that potential is realized is the question – as it always is – and his injuries won’t help in that matter. He is absolutely a damaged prospect, and his stock is probably at an all-time low. He’s gone from a lot of people calling him a 4th OF to wondering if he’ll stick in the majors for any length of time.
But despite all that, he was the Giants’ highest-rated non-Belt prospect. We could have used him in the outfield next year as a cheap, if mediocre, bat. Cabrera is, as I pointed out, nothing. He’s Tejada. Crawford with a slightly better bat and worse glove. Fontenot with a better glove and worst bat. He might be a better defensive SS than Tejada, but that’s as good as it gets – a maybe in the most unreliable and unmeasurable aspect of a player. You may be impressed with his AB’s so far, but he’s hitting .222/.222/.259, 100 points of wOBA worse than his already-miserable Cleveland campaign and a whopping -0.1 WAR. The rushed Crawford hit about as well as he has all season, and has been less hurtful. Your eyes may be telling you he’s a worthwhile player, but they’re wrong. The evidence is saying he’s a bad player who’s gotten worse, and it’s hard to imagine any of Fontenot, Keppinger, Crawford, or even Tejada being inferior.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Just one point: neal wasn’t the Giants’ highest-rated non-Belt prospect, and he wasn’t even the second highest rated position player prospect. I also, doubt we could have used him in the OF next year and am somewhat skeptical over the notion that cheap and mediocre is a player profile we should be looking for at this point.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I did mean position players
And he was on the MCC list.
I’d obviously like better than mediocre, but as we showed last year, we can win lots of games with an average offense. Neal doesn’t have to be great, he just has to be Cody Ross, and I think he can approximate that level of offense for the league minimum. Given how expensive our pitching is going to become starting next season, that’s very important to have as an option if we can’t scare up something better. Even if Neal ended up sucking, I’d rather have him around and give him a chance to do something while the risk is close to zero.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Ah, I was thinking BA. Carry on.
FWIW, the shoulder issues this year make me think that, whatever his bat, he’s not likely to be able to stay on the field for 150 games next year, much less perform well (which means that relying on Thomas Neal for league minimum might end up being relying on Francisco Peguero for league minimum).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I don’t think Neal would be the only plan; there’s no way they’d count on him to be the answer all year and have no backups. And it’s assured that Rowand, Torres, and Schierholtz would be the starting OF before Peguero entered the picture.
I just don’t like that they gave up the chance Neal could be something for nothing. I could understand giving up the chance for Beltran, who didn’t really fill a major hole as our OF was the best source of offense outside of 3B but was the best available bat, or Keppinger who didn’t cost much and filled 2B with a solid bat. But Cabrera is nothing. I don’t understand the logic behind using a roster spot on him, much less giving up anyone in the system.
The scenarios that make Neal an important member of a contender are certainly far-fetched. I’m not trying to say that Neal has significant value, just that he has a non-zero value, and I don’t believe the same can be said of Cabrera.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
If you have a better bat than Crawford and a better glove than Tejada......
that’s something that can help the team.
The thong is, it happened.
Not necessarily
Crawford: plus glove, negative bat
Tejada: negative glove, replacement level bat
Cabrera: replacement level glove, replacement level bat
That is pretty accurate, and makes Crawford about as valuable as Cabrera all told. It’s actually being fairly generous to Cabrera and hurtful of Crawford; Cabrera’s defensive stats indicate he is still a major league quality SS, but UZR is UZR and the fact that he’s 36 should be considered. Crawford has a very low BABIP and some pretty solid peripherals. He’s also a lot cheaper and a part of the future. The guy was rushed, but I’d say he’s at least as good an option as Cabrera and probably better, and WAR agrees.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Assuming they're close right now
I think they’re better off with Crawford in AAA, where he can work on his hitting outside the glare of MLB’s bright lights.
Ironically, giving one minor leaguer (Neal) for Cabrera might be helpful to another minor leaguer’s development
The thong is, it happened.
O Cab is a better defensive alternative
You don’t just look at a small sample UZR
you look at a 3 year period or a career. Orlando was a GREAT defender in his prime and currently the lsat 3 years he’s still been above average
His bat has been a nice surprise too. I hope he stays hot
also
you’re ignoring Miggy’s 52% (so bad) and 13.6% IFFB (so bad)
miggy is done. Cab still has some life in him
by pbjsandwich on Aug 10, 2011 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Three-year UZR for a player Cabrera's age isn't good
Players tend to fall off a cliff in their mid-thirties. Also, I don’t see that he’s been above average over the last three years (all following numbers are at SS):
2009: -13.6
2010: 3.7
2011: 0.6
for a grand total of -9.3 UZR in 2523 1/3 innings over the last three years (if you want to include 2008 instead of 2011 he does go positive to 6 UZR, but we’re 2/3 of the way through the season and that data is for a 33-year-old who put up a .316 wOBA and 85 wRC versus .265 and 66 this year). Pretty sure that’s not average. It’s also worth noting that of his 0.6 UZR in 104 innings at SS this year, 0.5 came in 14 innings with Cleveland; in 89 innings at short with the Giants, he’s produced 0.1 UZR.
Most of his career defensive numbers come from three great years in 2005, 2007, and 2008; the rest of his career he’s either below average or it was 2010 when he had a 3.7. In nine full seasons 2002-2010 he’s had four above-average years.
I don’t know if you actually read this part of the post, but I did give Cabrera credit for his defense this year over Tejada:
Cabrera can also still play short according to UZR
so it kind of confuses me when you say that I should recognize he’s a better defender and not use SSS UZR (that part is true, but UZR is such a wonky stat I’ve stopped caring about sample sizes) when I originally used SSS UZR to show he was a better SS than Tejada, and now that I’ve gone back and really looked at the data I think SSS UZR is the only thing that actually makes him look good; the three-year sample is kinda awful.
As far as his bat being a nice surprise, he’s hitting .243/.256/.297 for a .237 wOBA and 42 wRC+. That the third-worst of any non-pitcher with 40 ABs, ahead of DeRosa and Bill Hall. Jonathan Sanchez has a better batting line than that this year. His Cleveland numbers are only a little better. His BABIP is up to .281 and his strikeouts are up, walks down, ISO down. All of that is SSS of course, but it’s not like he’s Joey Votto and we just know he can hit. Cabrera looks like a player who is DONE. He’s right there at retirement age, and all the numbers say he can’t hit and he can’t field. The only way this looks good is if you cherry-pick numbers and ignore context. The guy just sucks.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
His bat has been horrible.
Ron Paul 2012
by GovernorStephCurry on Aug 12, 2011 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
You can’t use this year as a UZR year. He hasn’t even played 10 games at SS yet.
The way I see is that he’s a better defender than fontenot and miggy
and a better hitter than crawford.
I’m not high on Thomas Neal so that’s why I really don’t see the bad in this move but he’s def an upgrade over miggy if you look at the batted ball #s which show that miggy is just about done at the plate for his career
I cannot in good conscience cite numbers from 2008 as evidence a player is good now. I can only use 2009 numbers for UZR because they need such a large sample size. There is too much that can happen in the span of a year, much less two or three, to say that stats from 2008 indicate a player is good now. It’d be one thing if they reinforced a conclusion drawn by more recent stats (say using Albert Pujols’ early-career numbers to help justify the conclusion that he is a good hitter now) but if they conflict with what the more recent information tells me I tend to think the recent information is more indicative of a player’s true talent. In the same way I wouldn’t think Jose Bautista’s terrible 2008 means he’s not a good hitter now, I can’t look at Cabrera’s good 2008 and think he’s a good player now.
He might be better than Tejada, and might be better than Fontenot. He is not a better hitter than either of them or Crawford, whose batted ball data indicates some bad luck as well – his xBABIP is .314, 100 points higher than his true BABIP of .214, and a BABIP of .314 would lead to an average of .294. Cabrera’s nice LD% with Cleveland that I mentioned means he’s getting unlucky too (xBABIP of .317). So if they’re BOTH getting unlucky, and BOTH would be hitting well if they had BABIPs close to their xBABIPs, and Crawford is cheaper, under team control for the next 5-6 seasons, and a highly-regarded defensive SS by everyone in the organization, why is Cabrera needed?
The point is not that Cabrera is completely worthless. He kind of is. But any argument you can use to say that Cabrera is a good player applies just as well to Brandon Crawford, which makes Cabrera useless on this team. For the Cardinals, or Rays, or some team that’s getting zero production out of SS AND has no other option, he could be a worthwhile buy-low option. I think this is who Cabrera is; at 36, he doesn’t even have the youth on his side like Crawford does. Crawford’s struggles can be attributed to adjusting to the league, and we can say he has potential, so let him play. Cabrera has none of those on his side – he looks like a player in decline to me. But even if you believe he’s not, you have to by the same token believe that Crawford is just as good, possibly better unless you believe UZR data from 2008 is relevant, and a hell of a lot cheaper. There’s just no way for this to make sense.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
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