Madison Bumgarner's Struggles

by marcello on Jul 14, 2011 9:50 PM PDT

Ok, before I start, I want to emphasize that I don't really think Bumgarner is struggling (lol hook thread title). He's been fantastic, even more so considering his age and how little time it took to become a very good MLB starter. That said, it's seemed that he's had real trouble this year with runners on base. Since I don't have anything to do in my mother's basement, because my fucking A Dance with Dragons book didn't arrive today, I decided to look into the numbers. I don't promise anything you probably don't already know, but I thought we might as well look at the hard data instead of just what feels right:

Season	Split	K%	BB%	K/BB	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	FIP	xFIP	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
2010	Bases Empty	17.30%	3.60%	4.8	1.03	0.343	100.00%	3.63	3.78	1.15	18.90%	43.30%	37.80%	12.20%	8.50%
2010	Men on Base	19.60%	8.30%	2.38	0.72	0.269	47.70%	3.68	3.94	1.25	13.80%	47.80%	38.40%	7.50%	7.50%
2010	Men In Scoring	22.50%	6.30%	3.57	0.95	0.253	0.00%	3.54	3.5	1.23	11.50%	48.70%	39.70%	9.70%	9.70%
2011	Bases Empty	19.60%	6.00%	3.27	0.63	0.309	100.00%	2.99	3.33	1.44	19.50%	47.60%	33.00%	4.90%	6.60%
2011	Men on Base	22.30%	6.20%	3.58	0	0.384	29.20%	1.91	2.94	1.21	26.80%	40.20%	33.10%	4.80%	0.00%
2011	Men In Scoring	22.10%	8.90%	2.5	0	0.397	-9.80%	2.19	3.09	1.7	26.00%	46.60%	27.40%	10.00%	0.00%
Career	Bases Empty	19.10%	4.70%	4.08	0.94	0.328	100.00%	3.4	3.46	1.3	19.10%	45.70%	35.20%	8.80%	8.80%
Career	Men on Base	20.50%	7.50%	2.73	0.36	0.318	39.00%	2.86	3.51	1.26	19.60%	44.70%	35.60%	6.10%	4.10%
Career	Men In Scoring	21.90%	8.20%	2.68	0.48	0.321	-1.40%	2.97	3.43	1.37	18.50%	47.10%	34.40%	9.30%	5.60%

So, I'm hoping this table is mostly self-explanatory (glossary at end), but the basic gist is various stats for Bumgarner split out into the different game situations (Bases Empty, Men on Base, Men in Scoring Position). I want to emphasize two things:

This doesn't include tonight's game against the Padres.
Each season is only 105-110 IP, so the sample size isn't great, even more so when you're cutting it down into chunks.

That said, I think there are three things that stand out. His BABIP in 2011 with runners on and in scoring position is astronomical at 0.384 and 0.397, compared to career numbers closer to 0.320. This is actually a flip from last year, where he had a much worse BABIP with the bases empty.

Now, before I go screaming about bad luck, I need to mention the second thing that stands out: his Line Drive %. With men on base this year, he's been giving up way too many line drives. Those numbers are much higher than anything you would reasonably expect.

Unfortunately, here comes the really unsatisfying part: While he has been worse with runners on, it's hard to say whether it's because he's leaving fat pitches over the plate or just getting a bit unlucky. It's possible that he's getting unlucky with his LD% (this is known to Kruk as, "Sometimes the best pitch is a hanging curve."). Personally, I think it's mostly been bad luck and his numbers with runners on should regress towards his career numbers. This is mostly based on his K% and BB% with runners on. He's still getting the strikeouts and seems to be pitching around batters a bit more (which is expected), so I'm not entirely sure why that would lead to more solid contact.

Lastly, if you've been paying attention, I said three things stand out and have only mentioned two. The third would be the negative 9.80% LOB% for 2011 with Men in Scoring position. I don't even know how that works, but I'm going to assume it means the Padres have been cheating and sneaking runners onto the basepaths when the umps weren't looking.

Thoughts? Observations? What you ate at your most recent meal?

Glossary (just in case)

K% - Strikeouts per batter faced

BB% - Walks per batter faced

BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play

LOB% - Left On Base %: Percentage of runners left on base

FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching: On the same scale as ERA, it uses strikeouts, walks, and HR's to make a better future indicator of ERA

xFIP - FIP but with the HR rate normalized to league average

IFFB% - Infield flyball %

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Comments

Hmm

The more I look at those LOB numbers, the more I’m convinced they can’t be correct. He didn’t strand a single runner in scoring position last year? Also, the negative number.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil

by marcello on Jul 14, 2011 9:56 PM PDT reply actions

LOB is a formula stat, which doesn't quite mean what the acronym suggests, especially in splits

Essentially you take the number of new baserunners (i.e. hitters who get on base only), deduct the number of runs scored, and divide that by the number of new baserunners (stripping out home runs).

Taking a pitchers full record into account, that produces roughly the figure you’d expect (i.e. the percentage of guys who got on base but didn’t get home). But if you look at splits, you start comparing apples and oranges – the number of additional baserunners who got on base (excluding those who got on base in another scenario) with the number of runs scored (including those who got on base in another scenario). If you give up a hit with RISC, you are going to give up, on average, more than 1.0 runs, so you end up with a negative figure.

So Madbum has a 100% LOB with the bases empty, as does every other pitcher in baseball history. Madbum has a negative LOB with RISC – as does every other pitcher in baseball history with a reasonable SS (e.g. Halladay: -9.6%, Sabathia -8.4%).

by sarf_london_niner on Jul 16, 2011 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions

One thing to consider

Is that hitters tend to hit better with men on, partly because it opens holes in the defense and allows some hits to fall that normally wouldn’t. So one would expect his BABIP with men on and with RISP to be higher than with the bases empty. The 2010 number indicates luck and the 2011 number probably indicates a little bad luck but one would expect a higher BABIP anyway (and his BABIP on the season is very high).

What I find very encouraging is the increase in walks and strikeouts with men on base. Strikeouts are obvious, but I’d say increasing your walk rate with men on and with RISP is not nearly as bad as it normally would be and possibly is a good thing. Walking people with men on creates force outs where there might not have been any, it allows your defense to position itself more normally, and most important, a walk is a better outcome than a hit for the pitcher, so nibbling at the corners and increasing your walk total and decreasing your hit total is probably a good trade.

In any case, his FIP is better with runners on base and he starts getting a lot of grounders with RISP; I don’t know if that’s SSS chicanery or some more Righetti/Posey/Whiteside/Stewart magic, but I like it. Bumgarner’s got one of the highest BABIPs in the game and still has a pretty nice ERA, which is rather incredible on its own. Once you consider his age and still-developing repertoire, damn.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jul 15, 2011 12:14 AM PDT reply actions

Is that hitters tend to hit better with men on, partly because it opens holes in the defense and allows some hits to fall that normally wouldn’t. So one would expect his BABIP with men on and with RISP to be higher than with the bases empty. The 2010 number indicates luck and the 2011 number probably indicates a little bad luck but one would expect a higher BABIP anyway (and his BABIP on the season is very high).

Yeah, I meant to mention something like this originally, but I forgot to somewhere along the way.

by marcello on Jul 15, 2011 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions

LD% may vary more than you think.

Adoptive father of Jose Casilla.

by dregarx on Jul 15, 2011 3:51 AM PDT reply actions

I think it varies a lot

I don’t think I said anything counter to that.

by marcello on Jul 15, 2011 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions

With men on base this year, he’s been giving up way too many line drives. Those numbers are much higher than anything you would reasonably expect.

LD% may vary more than you expect.

Adoptive father of Jose Casilla.

by dregarx on Jul 16, 2011 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions

The thing that stands out to me

from the career stats is that when runners get on base, his BB% goes way up and HR/9 goes way down. Probably because he nibbles at the edge of the strike zone to avoid giving up a big hit. My question is, is this pattern typical? For Giants pitchers or otherwise?

It reminds me of discussions of the “Righetti effect”, where Giants pitchers as a group give up much fewer HR/9 than pitchers on any other team. I’ve heard a theory that it’s because they are much more willing to give up a walk rather than groove a fastball down the middle of the plate, which fits in with the traditionally high BB totals for SF pitchers too. So maybe this trend is exaggerated with runners on? Just a thought.

by neurofarm on Jul 15, 2011 4:15 AM PDT reply actions

I hate to be all “SSS,” but: SSS.

His “runners on base” split this year consists of 204 batters. The difference between a 19% line-drive rate and a 26% line-drive rate at this point is about 10 hits. That’s trivial, and there’s no reason to believe it’s “real.”

He was lucky with runners on last year, he’s been unlucky this year, and none of it means anything significant.

by Evan on Jul 15, 2011 7:05 AM PDT reply actions

True. Still, I wish he’d stop giving up 2 out run-scoring hits.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jul 15, 2011 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions

This.

SSS.

Maybe the only thing we can draw from this is that he gives up more contact with runners on.

Relief! I Thank you for your Lefferts.

by Cody_ransom on Jul 15, 2011 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions

kind of simplisitic but my favorite method to see what kind of a season a starting pitcher is having is just to check the gamelogs and see how many games they were better or worse than 6 IP/2 ER and 7 IP/3 ER…..Bumgarner should be 11-7 based on that….

by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 15, 2011 9:36 AM PDT reply actions

oops…make that 11-8…

by repeat_in_2011 on Jul 15, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

LOL WINZ!

Relief! I Thank you for your Lefferts.

by Cody_ransom on Jul 15, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions

references to pitching record in the media actually make me angry now.

Relief! I Thank you for your Lefferts.

by Cody_ransom on Jul 15, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions

You must be perpetually angry.

What can (Gary) Brown do for you?

by Lyle on Jul 16, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Madison Bumgarner is younger than both Brandons and Pablo Sandoval

/brainsplode

Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.

by baetown415 on Jul 15, 2011 10:58 AM PDT reply actions

Madison Bumgarner is younger than Gary Brown, and less than a year older than Zack Wheeler.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jul 15, 2011 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

It’s pretty ridiculous.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jul 15, 2011 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions

So, you’re saying that I threw myself down the stairs a little prematurely?

What can (Gary) Brown do for you?

by Lyle on Jul 16, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Madison Bumgarner's biggest problem

is that he doesn’t hit for power.

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 15, 2011 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

It’s the last tool to come!

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jul 15, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

TWSS

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jul 15, 2011 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Roger, I cannot believe you set him up like that.

What can (Gary) Brown do for you?

by Lyle on Jul 16, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions

SLAP HAPPY

Turns out you can spell Ugnio Vlz without 4 E's

by The Gene Hackman on Jul 15, 2011 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions

I think he suffers just mildly from the Tomko effect.

When he falls apart it seems to unfold all at once, and may only
happen for a few batters and then go back to normal.
I remember Tomko could go 4 innings and be pitching beautifully,
and then give up 6 hits in a row give up 4 runs and put the giants
behind, and then come back and pitch the next few innings as if
he never had a 4 or 5 run blip. With Bumgarner except for that
first inning recently, his blips are usually just one or two runs.
He is a strong kid, with much to learn and tremendously awesome
natural talent. He is going to be a really good one.

by bradleybear on Jul 16, 2011 12:18 AM PDT reply actions

MLB leaders in FIP:

1. Halladay (age 33): 2.16
2. Weaver (age 29): 2.40
3. Hamels (age 27): 2.43
4. Bumgarner (age 22): 2.45
5. Sabathia (age 30): 2.50

Selected others:
Verlander: 2.69
Lincecum: 2.70
Lee: 2.78
Cain: 2.92
Jurrjens: 3.10
Beckett: 3.27
Vogelsong: 3.62

Out of that list, only one pitcher wasn’t an all star.

And MadBum’s FIP gets better in high leverage spots. He’d be a Cy Young candidate with average luck, never mind if he had some good luck. The kid isn’t good, he’s special.

by sarf_london_niner on Jul 16, 2011 4:56 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs