FanPost

2011 Power Rankings Update

This is a continuation of a series I did in the offseason. Fair warning: it is a very long post. Here are the original rankings (parts one, two, and three) and the divisional rankings.

1. Philadelphia Phillies            57        34        .626     Preseason Rank: 2

            Count me as one who thinks Philly has played over its head a little bit. They're obviously the class of the NL, and they'll probably end the season with a .600 winning percentage, but I think they'll have a worse second half. Getting Utley back is nice (to illustrate the sad state of that once-great offense, he's tied for 3rd in WAR in half the games played), but is Shane Victorino a 9 WAR player? I kinda doubt it, even if his BB/K is almost 1. The rotation remains ridiculous even with Oswalt hurt; still, something tells me they'll cool down and only play .600 ball the rest of the way.

2. Boston Red Sox                  55        35        .611     Preseason Rank: 1

            I still think this is the best team in baseball. They started 0-6 and proceeded to a 2-10 first two weeks before gathering a few wins. Then they lost consecutive series against Baltimore and Seattle. Ouch. Adrian Gonzalez is a monster, and while I didn't get the Lackey contract at the time, it makes sense now that Dice-K is hurt and can't put up his usual 7.00 ERA. Jon Lester's injury is going to be a problem if it lingers, and Beckett's performance is unsustainable, but once again, there is potential in the starting rotation, which is nice when your offense has Carl Crawford hitting 8th.

3. New York Yankees            53        35        .602     Preseason Rank: 10

            So I ranked them 10th coming into the year. What of it? It was just a ploy to let Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia be above-average starters, because I knew it would happen if I let them fly under the radar a bit. The Yanks' offense has declined a bit as I thought it would, but only to 2nd in baseball as they've been one of the best defensive teams according to UZR. Since half that team is in their mid-30's, all that does is make me distrust UZR. The starting pitching hasn't been nearly as bad since they resurrected a few zombies.

4. Atlanta Braves                    54        38        .587     Preseason Rank: 5

            I got nothing here, mostly because the Braves are climbing high on my rankings of teams which I respect and despise. Jair Jurrjens is leading baseball in ERA thanks to some questionable peripherals, and it's masking a pretty terrible season from Jason Heyward, who all of a sudden isn't being talked about much. That's a theme here: fantastic starting pitching covering up a pretty crappy offense.

5. San Francisco Giants          52        40        .565     Preseason Rank: 3

            What was I saying about fantastic starting pitching covering up a pretty crappy offense? Despite losing Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez injuring his confidence, we're okay, because Ryan Vogelsong is that awesome, and not just lucky. Get this: the Giants are 23rd in baseball in BB/9. But it's okay, because we're first with a 8.14 K/9 (only team over 8 K/9). Also, we can't hit, which might have something to do with the fact that the only player who is both good at hitting and sound of body is Pablo Sandoval (I think Nate Schierholtz is for real, but let's give him a little longer), and that's being pretty generous with "sound of body".

6. Texas Rangers                     51        41        .554     Preseason Rank: 6

            This is the only team I nailed in the preseason ranking, so let's just say I predicted everything about them perfectly. Close to .500 at one point, Texas has picked it up recently, which could have something to do with getting Josh Hamilton back.

7. Tampa Bay Rays                 49        41        .544     Preseason Rank: 4

            I don't know why so many people thought the Rays were out of it this year; I still have them as the AL WC, as I don't believe in the Yankees' pitching, but at worst they'll be above .500. Nice years from James Shields, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Joyce, plus a good bullpen rebuild.

8. Los Angeles Angels            50        42        .543     Preseason Rank: 17

            Pretty off here, and that was before the Vernon Wells trade. Dan Haren and Jered Weaver are in beast mode, and the Angels have seven position players on pace for a 2 WAR or better season.

9. (tie-4) Detroit Tigers           49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 14

            Justin Verlander is also in beast mode, and Jhonny Peralta has a positive UZR. Anyone who had Peralta as the midseason WAR leader among free agent position players (and 2nd overall, 0.3 behind Cliff Lee) is probably dead from a meth overdose.

            Milwaukee Brewers    49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 8

            Zack Greinke currently sports a 5.45 ERA and a 2.98 FIP with a K/BB of 6, which is very 2011 Brewers. Completely unrelated, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun are the only offense while Casey McGeehee would like to borrow some of Nyjer Morgan's .392 BABIP.

            St. Louis Cardinals     49        43        .533     Preseason Rank: 15

            Also dead from a meth (and heroin, and cocaine, and probably Pop Rock) overdose is anyone who had Lance Berkman 2nd in baseball with a .602 SLG. Losing Adam Wainwright hasn't hurt the Cards with newly-extended Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse filling his shoes.

            Arizona Diamondbacks 49     43        .533     Preseason Rank: 24

            Get this: a team with a great offense and solid starting pitching bounces back from a horrible year to a good season because their bullpen went from historically terrible to decent. Incredible, really, given the rock-solid consistency of relief pitchers.

13. Cleveland Indians                         47        42        .528     Preseason Rank: 25

            There's something cooking in the Central, but at this point I've overplayed the meth card; the Indians are the surprise contender of the year at only half game out of first place and have accelerated their timetable to this year. They have too many infield prospects; I'll take Asdrubal Cabrera to go, please.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates             47        43        .522     Preseason Rank: 28

            FOOLED YOU! Actually, the Pirates are the surprise contender of the year at only one game out. To be fair, the NL Central blows and they're definitely not going to be here all year, but Andrew McCutchen is legit and Kevin Correia is an All-Star, which would be even more hilarious if he were still in SF because he could have stood next to Ryan Vogelsong for epic lulz.

Finally, the vast majority of people who thought they were the worst team in baseball can suck it.

15. New York Mets                46        45        .505     Preseason Rank: 21

            Jose Reyes is an MVP candidate because hitting .354 boosts your OPS like nothing else; his power and patience really aren't that great, but a .375 BABIP helps a lot. The Mets suck, though, with injury problems and general ineptitude, but a knuckleballer as a staff ace is sweet.

16. Washington Nationals       46        46        .500     Preseason Rank: 23

            Jordan Zimmermann is all the way back from Tommy John surgery, though I think they should have used the extra 'n' instead of a ligament. That Jayson Werth contract is getting a jump on the bad years as he's tied for 9th among their position players in WAR with Pudge and...Jordan Zimmermann.

 17. (tie-2) Toronto Blue Jays 45        47        .489     Preseason Rank: 16

            Jose Bautista is really the only thing worth talking about in Toronto. Jose Bautisa is awesome. Really, really awesome. Totally incredible. An unbelievable player. Patience, power, average, defense, the All-Star vote record, all his. Alex Anthopolous is pretty badass too.  

            Cincinnati Reds          45        47        .489     Preseason Rank: 9

            The Reds are somehow below .500 despite being on pace for 40 WAR from their position players alone. The starting pitching is bad, but it's okay, because they've got depth, so when a bad starting pitcher gets hurt or goes to AAA, they can replace him with another bad pitcher.

19. Chicago White Sox           44        48        .478     Preseason Rank: 12

            Adam Dunn is having an incredibly horrible year, going 2-64 (0.31) against lefties. Juan Pierre is also very bad. Edwin Jackson is not so bad, despite a mid-4.00's ERA, and headlines a pretty nice starting staff. Alexei Ramirez is probably the most underrated player in baseball.

 20. (tie-3) Seattle Mariners    43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 30

            Perhaps I was overzealous here because of how much of a disappointment the M's were in 2010, but I still think they're crap. Ichiro is starting to look like a 37 year old instead of Pete Rose (what am I saying? Ichiro looks more like Fran Drescher than Pete Rose). Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda are looking good, and Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley should be good if Ackley can overcome his coke problem.

            Colorado Rockies       43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 11

            Troy Tulowitzki good, Carlos Gonzalez horrible then good, Ubaldo Jiminez horrible then good, Rockies overall having a fantastic season from my point of view.

            Florida Marlins            43        48        .473     Preseason Rank: 18

            The Marlins won five games in June, and two were against Oakland. They're done.           

23. Minnesota Twins               41        48        .461     Preseason Rank: 7

            Injuries, crappy play, and the Twins go from perennial contender to "what can we sell?" which produces a very short list: Michael Cuddyer and "Well Played, Mauer" T-shirts.

24. Los Angeles Dodgers       41        51        .446     Preseason Rank: 13

            This is the Dodgers' season:

Martin1-1_medium

 

25. San Diego Padres             40        52        .435     Preseason Rank: 19

            Apparently, Adrian Gonzalez was worth something like 30 wins to San Diego, because they're the same team doing the same thing and they suck now.

26. Oakland Athletics                         39        53        .424     Preseason Rank: 20

            Oakland's been hurt by injuries as bad as the Giants, which clearly means there needs to be more fluoride in the water, and that championship rings are some sort of life force for winning percentages.           

27. Baltimore Orioles             36        52        .409     Preseason Rank: 29

            Baltimore really hasn't been that bad, with J.J. Hardy tearing it up (and talking about an extension, which would be the dumbest thing ever), but AL East.

28. Kansas City Royals           37        54        .407     Preseason Rank: 27

            KC is the other reason I said there's something cooking in the Central (also because the Midwest is full of meth labs) with a brief window where they thought they could contend. They weren't not wrong.

29. Chicago Cubs                    37        55        .402     Preseason Rank: 22

            At this point, I think either Cubs fans enjoy losing or there's going to be a mass suicide sometime in the next few weeks; there's no excuse to have a payroll that big and be the second-worst team in baseball in the worst division in baseball. Aramis Ramirez being traded back to the Pirates would be cause for a lot of alcohol-related deaths in Chicago.

30. Houston Astros                 30        62        .326     Preseason Rank: 26

            The Houston Astros baseball team is bad at playing baseball.

Overall, I think this list proves that I should shut the hell up about baseball. Or maybe the sport is just unpredictable. I'm going to go with the second one because otherwise I've wasted a lot of time on the computer. My favorite part is the run where I had a bunch of teams ranked in the 20s above a bunch of teams ranked in the teens (or higher), namely the Diamondbacks-White Sox bit.

Division Rankings:

1. NL East       246-211           .538     Preseason Rank: 2

2. AL East       238-210           .531     Preseason Rank: 1

3. AL West     183-184           .499     Preseason Rank: 6

4. NL West     225-234           .490     Preseason Rank: 3

5. AL Central  218-235           .481     Preseason Rank: 4

6. NL Central  257-293           .467     Preseason Rank: 5

So there's been some shakeup in the divisional rankings, with the AL West getting a lot stronger - the only real difference as it leapfrogged from 6th to 3rd and pushed everyone else down a slot - and the Eastern divisions basically stomping everyone else. Interesting that four of six divisions are below .500

If you've stayed with me this long, I salute you. For funsies, let's do a "what do you think" box and I can pretend to care about your opinions:

First-half surprise team:
Second-half surprise team:
Surprise playoff entrant:
First-half MVP:
First-half LVP:
Second-half MVP:
Second-half LVP:
Best record in baseball:

MVP and LVP include pitchers as well as position players.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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