Zito Hot in Final Rehab Start

Let’s break this down again:

1. Vogelsong is locked in. He’s pitching well in pretty much every sense of the word; he is getting lucky on balls in play, but his K and BB numbers are solid. Obviously he won’t be a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher the whole season, but he’s likely to post a sub-4.00 ERA, and that’s valuable on any team, especially at his salary and with two more years of team control. I don’t think fluke is the best answer anymore. He’s racked up too many very good innings to attribute his success to luck. You’re right there.

2. But Runzler and Wheeler aren’t even close to options for the sixth starter. Mota’s a better choice at this point; Runzler still isn’t even getting into the fifth inning (his last outing was a career-high 4.0 IP, which Mota’s beaten twice already) and he’s walked more than he’s struck out in AAA. Neither of those indicate he can be an effective starter; what it says is he can go two good innings or four bad innings and in either case you’re seriously hurting the bullpen. Wheeler is 20 and in SJ, and he’s got a lot of work to do; walking five batters every nine innings in A+ doesn’t bode well for his chances in the majors. The strikeout numbers are nice, but without control he won’t make it into the fifth either. Neither of these pitchers have indicated in any way that they’re ready to start in the majors leagues; every sign points to disaster, not to mention I’m sure Wheeler is about 20th on the depth chart for ML starts. Surkamp or Verdugo in AA or Loux or Kown in AAA are better in-house options than Runzler or Wheeler.

3. Disregarding the question of whether or not Eli/Stewart should be playing at C every day (probably not, but there aren’t really any options that are truly better and conceivably acquired), that list of catchers is close to insane. You’ve got the “future of the franchise” players (Montero, Wieters, Arencibia, Santana, Avila), the “also future of the franchise and a very good, long ML track record” players (Suzuki, Molina), the “we just gave him a three-year deal and aren’t trading him now” guy (Buck) and finally one potential option in Miguel Olivo. So let’s talk about him.

Olivo is hitting .230/.275/.403 for a .292 wOBA with workable defense (solid CS% and a few too many PB). There are some things to like, the low .273 BABIP and solid 14.1% HR/FB paired with an increase in fly balls for a power hitter. He looks like a good target until you look at Whiteside’s .221/.299/.372 slash line, which gives him a .291 wOBA, just about where Olivo is, and the fact that he’s got an even lower .266 BABIP. Whiteside doesn’t have Olivo’s power, but he walks a lot more and has been less lucky. He’s a worse defensive catcher probably, but the staff knows him and it seems like it could be hard to justify prying Olivo away from Seattle when they’re “contending” (one game under .500 but only 2.5 out of first) and he doesn’t seem like a real upgrade over Whiteside. Perhaps he’s half a win better, but it seems doubtful that’s worth his price considering the M’s probably aren’t looking to deal him. A career .302 wOBA player, he doesn’t have a lot of upside either.

Bottom line, the Jays, Tigers, Indians, Yankees, Orioles aren’t looking to deal potential star catchers for less than a king’s ransom, which seems kind of stupid considering Buster will be back next year and that would leave us just having to trade that guy again, probably at a loss as he’s less valuable with fewer years of team control and the Giants would have less leverage in any trade. And the Fish and Mariners probably aren’t looking to deal their starting catchers when they’re still looking at the postseason as an option. The Cards and A’s aren’t going to trade their franchise catchers. None of these guys are real options.

4. Assuming Posey will still be hurt doesn’t make a lot of sense, and the idea that he’s going to switch positions immediately is similarly ludicrous. He wants to catch, and the other real options (3B and 1B) are filled. The team can’t go around making deals assuming players are going to re-injure themselves or take longer to heal than originally thought, for the same reason you shouldn’t assume the opposite. You make decisions based on what you think will happen, you can’t possibly prepare for every potential problem. I know what I would do if there were an earthquake, but I’m not prepared for an alien invasion.

5. Zito was left off the postseason roster last year because he couldn’t help; there were better short relief options and we only needed four starters. But postseason rosters are not the same as regular-season rosters; you have designated pinch-hitters, things like that, and you manage differently with each game carrying more weight and more off days. So comparing last year’s postseason roster to this year’s regular season roster is disingenuous; it’s like comparing a bulldozer and a sedan. Each does well in its specific purpose, but it’s built for that purpose, and using one to do the other’s job isn’t going to work so well.

As far as his routine goes, I’m inclined to say fuck that. He’s being paid a hell of a lot of money and he’s not earning it, so if the Giants decide he needs to go to the pen he’s going to have to do that. At this point, the best thing he can do is whatever the Giants ask, since he’s not really in a position to be arguing that he could be more helpful in a different role. It’s about minimizing the damage he does, and he doesn’t get to rule out options.

Well, of course, equal value depends on what value you place on him going forward. I wouldn’t want to bet that he’s going to continue to be 200 ERA+/6 WAR pitcher going forward. And if anybody would want to make a trade for him based on the notion that he will be a 200 ERA+/6WAR pitcher going forward, then I think you’d have to jump all over that deal.

Let’s have Zito drive a monster truck over Lou Seal’s belly during the 7th inning stretch

I assume they wouldn’t just keep him on the DL; they’d have to shuffle him back and forth and only have him spend maybe a few weeks on the active roster before he’s “hurt” again.

He actually misses it every year. But I could have one birthday wish granted by my fairy Sabeanmother, it would be for the Giants to never again pick up a player who’s at least 35 and hand him a starting job.

Maybe it’s not a steadfast rule, but I think this should be a solid guideline for him to follow.