Nate and stats with a side of clutch

by posey yaknowsy on Jun 14, 2011 3:52 PM PDT

Thinking about how great Juggernate has been his year coming into games and performing his baseball activities at such a high level, I found these interesting splits. I am including the Starter vs Sub'd in stats because I think they encompass more than just PH PA's as to come off the bench and excel in any situation is clutch.

Starter

113 PA .243 / .301 / .379 (.680 OPS)

Sub

34 PA .324 / .324 / .529 (.853 OPS)

This year he is also hitting with RISP:

36 PA .313 / .361 / .406 (.767 OPS)

SSS alerts of course but digging deeper... Now just to see how the opposite side of his start world lives.

In low leverage situations:

58 PA .167 / .224 / .259 (.483 OPS)

Hmm. By the way that is calculated by baseball-reference.com,

"Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a give situation and situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LI's than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (late innings of a 12-run blowout).The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations the leverage is between 0 and 1.0."

Medium

54 PA .333 / .370 /.529 (.900 OPS)

High

35 PA .313 / .343 / .500 (.843 OPS)

Lots of interesting stats and splits. Is it possible to infer how Schierholtz is excelling in these tight situations and relatively not in the others? Time to continue and see if its just this year.

2010 Starter

160 PA .231 / .302 / .350 (.652 OPS)

Sub

92 PA .262 / .326 / .393 (.719 OPS)

Still able to perform higher as a sub than his average levels and mlb average levels. Looking further,

Low leverage

118 PA .189 / .263 / .274 (.536 OPS)

Medium

84 PA .256 / .310 /.372 (.681 OPS)

High

50 PA .349 / .429 / .581 (1.010 OPS)

Impressively tiered stats showing some correlation to how well he hits compared to how intense the situation. I'll keep going.

2009 Starter

243 PA .247 / .288 / .290 (.678 OPS)

Sub

65 PA .339 / .354 / .435 (.789 OPS)

Looking good, and the leverage numbers...

Low:

157 PA .303 / .344 / .421 (.765 OPS)

Medium:

90 PA 241 / .278 / .434 (.712 OPS)

High:

61 PA .211 / .230 / .298 (.528 OPS)

Well, that doesn't match up. So, maybe Nate the Great learned something between 09-10?

I won't include the previous years because of the small number of total PAs; I don't want to have the already SSS get smaller. TWSS. But there still is correlation between better numbers in the higher leverage spots including coming in the game as a substitution. So 09 could be more of an outlier in the leverage stats.

We'll see how this season continues to play out and the sustainability of numbers sets in. Hopefully Nate can gain some of that "magic" from his clutch hits and spread them around his splits. Maybe it is hyper-focus, or maybe it is more of a lackadaisical approach. Whatever it is, he needs to learn to replicate it.

This season more than ever is going to require the hitters to step up. Not only to compensate for the terrible lineup, but now the holes that gap throughout it due to injuries. This could be a "high leverage" situation where Nate can excel. I might just be sayin'

via i1123.photobucket.com

Author's note: Want to see what you guys think of using these stats

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Short answer: No

Long answer: Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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by GiantPain on Jun 14, 2011 10:00 PM PDT reply actions

He needs to try harder in low leverage situations

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jun 15, 2011 12:10 AM PDT reply actions

One thing's for sure-

His role model is definitely not Lebron James.

by TheFreakSFG on Jun 15, 2011 12:13 AM PDT reply actions

These are fun stats.

Adoptive father of Jose Casilla.

by dregarx on Jun 15, 2011 1:12 AM PDT reply actions

The most obvious problem . . .

. . . is that the “starter” labelling is misleading. It applies to any game for which he was in the starting lineup, which is something quite different from being a “starter” in the sense of playing regularly and frequently. A guy who starts, say, every Tuesday and Friday can accumulate some apparently significant data as a “starter”, but in fact it’s a situation only a little better than pinch-hitting or coming in as a defensive sub once in a while.

What needs to be done by someone with patience and time (both of which qualities exclude me) is to make a dataset of his stats when appearing in games where he had had, say, 8 plate appearances in the immediately prior 3 days, or some such criterion that approximates regular play.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe

by owlcroft on Jun 15, 2011 1:19 AM PDT reply actions

That would be a nice data to analyze

However, I wasn’t really going for that… more about his clutch hits coming into the game. Most of those would be his PH ABs but instead of just using those to compare I used all Sub’d in ABs to get more of the picture. Hopefully that picture would show that he delivered when he really needed to perform. Game on the line stuff.

Perhaps you are right in that if that dataset were to be created, it might show the more playing time he gets the less consistent his numbers. Nate is baffling.

by posey yaknowsy on Jun 15, 2011 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions

In basketball, some guys play a lot of minutes but are technically not starting

Manu Ginobli comes to mind.

At this point, I'm pretty much done with surprises - Michael Crabtree

by Amigo on Jun 15, 2011 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Wow, you jinxed him!

Nate was clutch tonight! Except, he wasn’t. Wonder if he set some kind of record for men LOB?

I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
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by Giant Torture on Jun 15, 2011 4:56 AM PDT reply actions

As K&K pointed out

He really had trouble with the starter. Once he came out, his ABs looked a lot better.

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jun 15, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Collmenter was confusing. Forced Nate to overthink.

At this point, I'm pretty much done with surprises - Michael Crabtree

by Amigo on Jun 15, 2011 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions

I wonder if...

…he sees more FBs in high leverage situations?

I doubt he’s seen as a feared hitter. The normal MO is to throw him breaking stuff, but perhaps in stress situations, teams change to “make him beat you, just don’t walk him mode”.

Just a thought that could explain it beyond clutch.

The other thing is he might get too keyed up when he knows he’s starting and thinks too much, whereas as a sub/PH, he doesn’t have time to overthink.

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jun 15, 2011 10:51 AM PDT reply actions