Miggy/Crawford: more difficult choice than you thought?

by ecvandervoort on Jun 10, 2011 11:32 PM PDT

As recently as yesterday, the general consensus among the black and orange faithful was that rookie Brandon Crawford had won the Giants’ starting shortstop job. It would have been absolutely ridiculous (though not out of character) for Bruce Bochy to keep going with the washed up Miguel Tejada over the promising young Crawford once Pablo Sandoval is back at his usual third base.

However, their recent performance suggests otherwise. In their past 10 games, Tejada is hitting .295 while Crawford is only batting .200.

Has Miggy started to figure something out? He has four hits in the last two games, all doubles. Crawford, meanwhile, has drastically slowed down since he stole Giants’ fans hearts in his first few games.

Don’t get me wrong, I love watching the kid play and he's our shortstop for the future. But with an offense so desperate for hits, it looks like Bochy will have a tougher decision to make than we would have thought a couple days ago.

Just some food for thought.

Poll

Who should start more often once Sandoval is back?

Brandon Crawford

217 votes

Miguel Tejada

34 votes

251 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

Tweet Comment 33 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Where's the "none of the above" option?

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by Bhaakon on Jun 10, 2011 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

As long as he's hitting...

…Tejada at 3rd base, which he’s actually fielding pretty well right now, and where his limited range isn’t as important, and Crawford at short as the obvious defensive standout between the two at that position.

Sandoval should be playing some rehab games at first base and when he returns, he should play first base while Huff sits down. With F. Sanchez out, Burriss should have an opportunity to show if he can cut it with regular playing time at 2nd.

If he can’t, Fontenot should be back shortly — and, for that matter, Brett Pill has been playing a serviceable second base for Fresno and hitting pretty well. Really, he hasn’t gotten any real chance at all with the organization.

If the Giants could promote Crawford from San Jose, they could certainly give serious consideration to promoting Pill from Fresno.

by Grizzlie Antagonist on Jun 11, 2011 1:24 AM PDT reply actions

Crawford hands down.

I’ll take the unknown offensive output with good defense over a guy that has had a good week and a half, but otherwise has been one of the worst players in baseball who has been average to below avereage depending on the position on defense.

by downsos on Jun 11, 2011 4:13 AM PDT reply actions

Tejada has 5 votes.

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by GrahamCrakalaka on Jun 11, 2011 4:43 AM PDT reply actions

That is 4 more than I thought he would get. Tejada has been playing very well over the last two games. What concerns me is that it took a potential Release or DFA rumor to get him motivated.

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by nvsfg on Jun 11, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Eh

The answer is both. Stating lineup choices in absolutes for the Giants is an exercize in futility.

"It's too LATE to stop now!" - John Lee Hooker

by Rolfyboy on Jun 11, 2011 9:06 AM PDT reply actions

So I'm guessing your new

Find out what SSS stands for and get back to me.

I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!

by Giant Torture on Jun 11, 2011 12:50 PM PDT reply actions

Except SSS perspectives really favor Tejada who has a long history of being an above, to high-above average hitter, not Crawford who has 53 major league PAs.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jun 11, 2011 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

exactly

Crawford’s entire career is a small sample size. Bochy has to go with who’s hot

by ecvandervoort on Jun 11, 2011 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

You're still basically right, but what you said here goes against what Roger said.

Bochy has to go with who’s hot

The idea in relying on large samples is starting the historically better hitter consistently and keeping him in when he’s cold, trusting that the overall numbers will be better in the long run, not “playing the hot hand”.

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by dregarx on Jun 11, 2011 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

It doesn’t go against it. Right now, Tejada has the advantage in both perspectives. So as long as this goes on, I wont be upset with Tejada over Crawford. But once Tejada slows down, I’m going to want to see Crawford more. I’m saying let Tejada hit while he can

by ecvandervoort on Jun 11, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Right. It's this part of your comment that goes against what Roger said.

But once Tejada slows down, I’m going to want to see Crawford more.

If you really supported the SSS perspectives, you would keep Tejada in even during slumps, realizing that it will even up over the larger sample size over an entire season. And if you believe that Tejada’s overall talent level is higher than Crawford’s, then that would be the right move to make, and taking him out for Crawford would be the wrong one to make.

Adoptive father of Jose Casilla.

by dregarx on Jun 11, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe I should be more specific

That and learn how to type.

In their past 10 games, Tejada is hitting .295 while Crawford is only batting .200.

Most people here who are clamoring for Crawford to stay in the LOLineup want him to do so for his defense. Going on what they’ve done for a week and a half is ridiculous. Tejada does have history on his favor, but a player his age, I don’t think you can go much further than a year or two back. In which case he sucks.

Also, also, who cares about BA? Not me, Crawford takes walks, The Statue doesn’t. I can’t pull up just the last ten games, but in 15 games, Crawford has an OPS of 704 and an OPS+ of 96. If he can maintain being a league average hitter he provides tons of value with the glove. Migsucky had a couple of good games, blind squirrel, nut etc.

I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!

by Giant Torture on Jun 11, 2011 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions

In those 10 days, Tejada has had 47 PAs, with an OPS of 735. Judging somebody on that timescale is ridiculous, I agree.

Crawford had 53 PAs in his major league career, which is clearly a much more sensible length of time to be judging a player over.

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 11, 2011 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions

but a player his age, I don’t think you can go much further than a year or two back. In which case he sucks.

Not really. In 2009, he put up a 110 OPS+ for Houston. And while he was pretty dismal for Baltimore last year, he put up a 104 OPS+ in San Diego. For the season as a whole he had a 90 OPS+, so thumbnail math tells me that over the last two years he’s been a league average hitter, and better than that in the NL. His WAR the last four years has been 2.4, 3.4, 2.8, 0.9. The precipitous decline last year was definitely concerning in light of what’s happened this year, but I don’t think you can say that he’s sucked the last few couple years.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jun 11, 2011 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m sorry but when you combine a 110, 104 or 90 OPS+ with his defense, he’s not a good option and I stand by my earlier claim that he sucks. He’s old, the steroid well has run dry, and he doesn’t hit for power anymore. As I said, if Crawford can be just a league average hitter, his glove dictates that he should stay in the LOLineup.

I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!

by Giant Torture on Jun 12, 2011 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions

if Crawford can be just a league average hitter

Crawford hasn’t proven he’s league average in AA ball yet.

Nobody is saying Tejada is still a good player, but just willing the young kid who got called up from A-ball to be better doesn’t make it so.

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 12, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions

My inclination would be . . .

. . . to let him play himself out of the position (as it is phrased). Maybe he won’t; maybe he will. If he does, it’s not as if there was a vastly better option stalled thereby. (Though we’ll see where we are when Fontenot comes back and Hall has had some exposure.)

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
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by owlcroft on Jun 12, 2011 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I’d say Tejada’s defense at 3B has actually been very good. It’s terrible at SS but that’s a range issue, at 3B he’s been solid. Also those WAR totals I noted above (2.4, 3.4, 2.8) are factoring in defense and a two win player really doesn’t suck. If he can even get up to Evan’s preseason prediction of a 1 win player he’d be valuable on this team.

I don’t disagree that I’d rather have Crawford at SS because of his plus D, but I think the Tejada hate is overboard. Right now I wouldn’t mind a lineup that had Tejada at 3B, Panda at 1B and Huff and Ross platooning in LF, with Hall and Burriss mixing it up at 2B. It’s not good, but I’d err toward trying to maximize the defensive efficiency on this team. (I’d still try to trade for Reyes come July though).

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jun 13, 2011 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions

I really don’t want Reyes, especially at the likely price. Who would you be willing to trade away?

What can (Gary) Brown do for you?

by Lyle on Jun 13, 2011 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

How can you not want the guy? He’s on a pace to hit 100 XBH! He’s awesome. We need us some awesome. Awesome enhances things; especially things that are decidedly not awesome.

I’d say that I wouldn’t take anybody off the table (maybe Brown, but that’s it).

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jun 13, 2011 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I care about average

Who doesn’t? OBP is more important, but average matters, to the extent that I would sacrifice some OBP for some AVG (though the AVG change would have to be proportionally greater), and I think that makes sense. Hits are better than walks.

For example, RISP with two outs. What would you rather have: a guy who’s hitting .000/.500/.000 or a guy who’s hitting .250/.250/.250? Even if you have THREE guys, in a row, with a .500 OBP behind that runner, you need three consecutive walks to get a run (.5^3 = 0.125), versus one guy to get a hit, diminishing your chances of scoring from 1/4 to 1/8. OBP is great, and it’s obviously the most important stat, but let’s not dismiss the importance of average. Let’s also not confuse OBP with walking; they are two separate, though related, things. Plenty of guys who walk a ton have mediocre OBPs because they don’t hit for average, and plenty of guys who don’t walk a lot have good OBPs because they hit for average.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jun 11, 2011 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Depends

For example, RISP with two outs. What would you rather have: a guy who’s hitting .000/.500/.000 or a guy who’s hitting .250/.250/.250?

Are the bases loaded?

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jun 13, 2011 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Those are the reasons . . .

. . . people have labored for many decades to find run-generation formulae that work well. And there are quite a few of them. Why this burning desire to reinvent the wheel?

Even Bill James’s basic old thing works decently enough to give a fair idea of the relative significance of the various parts:

R = (H + BB) x TB / (AB + BB)

In essence, that’s OB times TB/PA (a sort of “RBI rate” factor); the lesser stats—SH, SF, HBP, SB, CS—are ignored for simplicity.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe

by owlcroft on Jun 13, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Its gotta be Crawford, neither are going to hit very well, so on a team built around run prevention, you gotta go with defense

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by TexasRanger on Jun 11, 2011 1:19 PM PDT reply actions

Wow such a hard choice

It was like when I went to the supermarket and had to choose between buying either bleach or orange juice as my morning drink of choice.

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by doubleteapot on Jun 11, 2011 6:14 PM PDT reply actions

Crawford

Tejada getting hot is good, though with the rest of the lineup hitting like it is and his home run power having completely disappeared it’s hard for him to create runs.

But Crawford is the future, and Tejada is not. Even if Tejada is a better hitter, which is questionable (as I outlined in another fanpost, Crawford’s peripheral stats indicate that he is hitting better than a cursory glance at his triple-slash indicates), Crawford’s definitely got a better glove, making them about even if we make assumptions in Tejada’s favor. Plus, Tejada is gone after this year (pleasepleasepleaseplease), and Crawford is probably going to be our SS for at least a season, so it’d be nice to get him acclimated to the majors while he’s on the roster anyway as well as see what he can do considering the alternatives aren’t superior. A few good games doesn’t erase the two months of crap or the iron glove at short, and all of the other evidence points to Crawford.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jun 11, 2011 7:57 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Crawford’s peripheral stats are entirely unreliable though. Do you actually believe that Crawford’s true talent level is a 12% strikeout rate (when his career strikeout rate in A and AA – including his spell in A ball just a month ago – is twice that)?

This page gives a nice quick overview of when stats start to become reliable. Clearly, this isn’t a threshold where stats suddenly go from useless to useful, but it is a very useful guide to give you an idea of how much information you need before stats start to have genuine meaning. But for Crawford, the only stat that is even slightly reliable is swing%.

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 12, 2011 4:27 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm not saying he'll continue to hit well

Just as least as good as Tejada. And if so far he’s experienced some bad luck (which he has, even if he SSS prevents it from hurting a season line too much), I would expect some regression in both directions, which is a hell of a lot better than expecting him to get worse because he’s a rookie with a .350 BABIP or something. The point isn’t that Crawford will maintain his peripheral stats, but that the peripherals have shown bad luck which should self-correct and allow him to not fall as far as he might.

Besides, everything about Tejada sucks. Even if Crawford’s peripherals get worse, falling past Tejada would be pretty impressive.

Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jun 12, 2011 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Only if you assume that Tejada hasn’t been unlucky – which, applying the exact same tests you apply to Crawford (i.e. BABIP), he has.

Crawford’s had 59 PA in the majors. Tejada has been better than Crawford over his last 59 PA. Tejada had a league average (nearly) bat as recently as last September. This “everything about Tejada sucks” stuff is silly.

“The peripherals have shown bad luck” – no, BABIP implies bad luck. The peripherals as a whole do not show bad luck.

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 13, 2011 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions