Offense anyone?

Any reasonably competent GM should have looked at Zito and Rowand’s peripherals and been able to figure out they probably weren’t worth their money.

1) Talented free agents can be good, and you can really only treat them on a case by case basis.

2) The problem with the Brady analogy is opportunity. Backups in the NFL do not get opportunities, typically barring injury. In major league baseball, the entire minor league system is based on opportunity. Any guy with a shred of talent is playing every day. So, within a reasonable range, we have a pretty good idea of what they are capable of right now. Some guys will take developmental leaps, and some guys that look like they should be able to take the next step won’t, but as a rule we have a pretty decent idea of what to expect right now from any given prospect who’s been in the system a couple of years.

3) I don’t know. As long as we can?

The solution to the offense, though, to getting that little bit of offense you want, isn’t some big thing. Sandoval will come back. Fontenot will come back. Ross will hit around his career numbers. Huff will either hit or get replaced by Belt (or, God forbid, neither). The real problem is just simply getting Bochy to play the better players. Because he seems pretty darn intent in playing the not-better ones. It won’t make a difference if Fontenot comes back if Tejada continues to start every day. If won’t matter if Ross comes around if he never plays. We have that little bit of offense on the team. It’s just either hurt right now, or simply not being used.

1. Rowand’s contract expires after 2012, Zito’s after 2013, though there is a 2014 club/vesting option that will vest with 200 innings in 2013, 400 from 2012-2013, or 600 from 2011-2013. The option figures to not vest and be declined, though it has a healthy $7.5M buyout. The money will certainly be spent on retaining Lincecum and Cain, though Sandoval will be a free agent after 2014 so we have to consider that as well.

2. Brandon Crawford won’t hit well right now but will play good defense. With a year in Fresno we’d have a better idea, but I’m of the position that he won’t hit any worse than Tejada’s upside if he spends in year in AAA and is called up to stay in 2012, and he’ll provide plus defense. He figures to be a low-average, low-OBP guy with good power if his minor league stats are to be believed.

3. I think the current Giants core can be retained with minor changes through 2015. The big question will be the bullpen; Jason Stoffel and Heath Hembree could provide a boost in a couple seasons, but the Giants won’t be able to pay Wilson $15M a year. Do they retain him and lose someone else, probably either Sandoval or Cain? Does he stay at a reduced price? Will everyone figure out how good Romo is, and will he stay for less than he could get as a FA? The Giants have been good at finding bargains in the pen, so I’m not particularly concerned about this, but it’s something to think about.

Worse is the question of what happens after 2015. Jonathan Sanchez will be gone, as will Zito. Bumgarner will still be under team control for a couple more seasons, and will likely be extended if he’s pitching well. I expect him to stay through at least the late part of the decade, but that does depend on him. I think Cain will stay if the Giants offer him a reasonable contract, probably $15M+ a year. Lincecum I’m more concerned about; I think the Giants will make him a good offer, but I’m concerned they just won’t have the payroll to keep him. He could easily demand $25M+ as a free agent, and I don’t know if he likes SF enough to stay here, or if taking a discount means going to Seattle. He’s already at $13M+$1M bonus for 2011, and arbitration hearings in 2012 and 2013 could push him over $20M easily just through arb. Will the Giants be able to afford $20M+ for him after 2013? I think they could expand the budget and retain him.

That leaves the offense. Belt is under control through most of the decade, but Pablo could be a $15M player after 2015, Posey could reach $15-20M in his 2016 free agency. I think both players get extended before they hit FA and that keeps them here a few more years at least, but both are candidates to stay long-term, Posey a little more so.

But the Giants will need reinforcements from the farm. Wheeler, Surkamp, Bucardo, Verdugo, Kickham, Rosin; a couple of these guys will have to fill two rotation holes: one in 2013 (Sanchez), and one in 2014 (Zito). Trading Jonathan next offseason if Surkamp is ready – which he might be soon – could net a couple decent prospects that might smooth things out, because otherwise the pitching is thin. The position players are a little less depressing, with Neal, Brown, Peguero, Culberson, Belt, H. Sanchez, and a few other fringe candidates to bust out providing some cheap offense.

This is all the rosy picture. If the prospects develop like we hope, the Giants could realistically remain competitive through the end of the decade; I really think retaining the pitching core we have now and building an offense from the farm could allow us to be in the playoff picture every year until 2018 or so. But things have to go right; if the current core loses a member or two, or some of these guys don’t grow like the could, we could be in trouble as soon as 2013 when Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Sandoval, Posey, and Bumgarner start getting expensive, and Zito’s not off the books yet. The Braves were successful because they had a constant stream of prospects on both sides of the ball coming in and providing cheap production; outside a $200M payroll, that’s the only way to stay competitive for more than four years or so, and since we started in 2009 we could be done by 2012. With the pitching we have performing the way it does, we’ll always be in every game, so we’ll always be competitive, but that assumes we can keep it and it keeps doing well, neither of which are safe assumptions.

I think the mortgage on the AT&T is supposed to be paid off 2017. That might allow the team to up the payroll significantly, don’t you think?