What would it take for you to believe in true Vogelsong?
by Ott on May 21, 2011 2:12 PM PDT
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Or: Do you believe in Vogelsong at first sight?
He's been one of the best stories on the Giants this season, and we're all rooting for him to become this year's Most Improved Zombie ™. But it is not always the case that where the heart leads, the head will follow. Many of us remain staunchly distant, like lead on a romantic comedy who has been hurt by love before, and won't let herself fall for a guy that easily again. We guard our hearts, in spite of the urging of our best friend who wants us to “let go” and “just find out where it might lead” and tells us, “what if he is 'the one', and you just let him go?”
So here we are, and Vogelsong has made 5 starts, four stellar and one not so hot. His ERA is dropping, he's missing bats (surprise!), he's not walking guys (bigger surprise!). Where's the point at which you let your guard down, run to him through the rain, wrap your arms around him and shout for all the world, “This is real! THIS – is who I want in the starting rotation!”
Is 5 starts with 2.25 ERA enough? How about 10, with 2.50 or so? 15? 25? Three seasons?
I hate making an assertion on something like this without having a frame of reference, so let's do this. Here's your montage of the guy we used to be committed to, focusing on just the best points; like the time he brought us flowers even though there was no occasion, and the time he brought us breakfast in bed, and the time he helped keep us in that pennant race that we REALLY wanted, but we didn't know he'd been listening when we told him.
In non-metaphor speak, here are most of Zito's best stints as a Giant. Which of these does Vogelsong have to surpass for you to believe he's the better rotation option?
2007 – 5 starts (April 16 – May 7), 33.1 IP, 22 K, 13 BB, 0 HR, 8 RA, 2.16 ERA
2007 – 10 games, 9 starts (August 2 – September 14) 58.2 IP, 44 K, 18 BB, 7 HR, 17 RA, 2.61 ERA
2007 – 4 starts (the best stretch of the previous set) (August 17 – September 2) 29 IP, 24 K, 4 BB, 1 HR, 4 RA, 1.24 ERA
2008 – 5 starts (September 3 – September 25) 34.1 IP, 27 K, 15 BB, 3 HR, 14 RA, 3.15 ERA
2009 – 6 starts (April 22 – May 19) 40.2 IP, 24 K, 13 BB, 3 HR, 10 RA, 2.21 ERA
2009 – 12 starts (July 18 – September 15) 72.1 IP, 61 K, 27 BB, 6 HR, 21 RA, 2.36 ERA
2010 – 6 starts (April 6 – May 5) 42.1 IP, 28 K, 12 BB, 0 HR, 7 RA, 1.49 ERA
2010 – 6 starts (July 8 – August 6) 40.1 IP, 40 K, 16 BB, 6 HR, 10 RA, 2.23 ERA
For comparison, here are the same numbers (IP, K, BB, HR, RA, and ERA) for Vogelsong's starts:
2011 – 5 starts (April 28 – May 20) 28 IP, 26 K, 10 BB, 2 HR, 8 RA, 2.25 ERA
For myself, I like to be cautious. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, and I'm not sure how much it would take to change my mind. I'll go with 15 starts with a walk rate below 4 per 9, and keeping up the strikeouts. If he can do that, I might start to change my position. I also reserve the right to be skeptical if he continues to do this against weak competition.
Let me also say that even though I'm not convinced, I'm enjoying every moment of this. I love for a guy who has worked for so hard and so long to get a chance to enjoy his time as a pitcher on a major league rotation. That is very, very special and it warms the cockles of my heart to think about it. Until things turn south (while hoping they won't), I'm looking at this as pretty much playing with house money. It's like we're getting a really good stretch of pitching from Zito, even though he's out with an injury. I have nothing but good feelings about what has happened so far, but I'm not going to be doubling down for the next roll of the Vogelsong dice.
Addendum: Apologies for the format - I don't know how to do fancy stuff, and even if I did I'd be paranoid of messing it up. If someone who knows this stuff better wants to make a fancy graph or table or whatever the cool kids do these days, by all means have at it.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Maybe about 3/4s of a season before I really began to consider him a good starter. Then I would need to see him continue it next season.
Carter Jurica!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on May 21, 2011 3:29 PM PDT reply actions
More than one season
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
by GiantPain on May 21, 2011 3:39 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I will consider him a genuinely good pitcher if he ends the year w/ERA+ over 140, pitches 200+ IP, throws one no hitter against the Dodgers, hits one into McCovey Cove and the Giants’ win the World Series. I will consider this to be true, regardless of what he does next year, even if he steals my child’s lunch.
I will consider him a nice 5th starter if he performs as well as Zito has over the past 4 years, for the rest of this year.
"Man, you just can't beat a good bowl of gumbo." ~ William Nuschler Clark
I already believe in him as a long man/swingman, and I’m close to believing in him as “better than Zito,” although that depends more on Zito than on him.
I am curious as to what Zito will do when he comes back, as well. But Zito’s track record, even as an overpaid Giant, is so much better than Vogelsong I don’t see how you could keep Volgesong in the rotation ahead of him.
I'm as tall as Mel. Why can't I hit 500 home runs?
Well isn't Zito a guy who can't warm up quickly so he'd be ill suited for the bullpen?
I thought someone wrote that but I could be mistaken…
If Vogelsong continues to do well I wonder if the Giants would try a 6 man rotation like the White Sox are currently doing, or if they’re really convinced they could try and shop Jonathan Sanchez to help replenish the farm system, though I doubt either of these things will happen, as these issues usually work themselves out.
I'm warming to a 6-man.
Especially with the extended season’s wear and tear on young arms.
My son!
Man of the Crazy Sink.
Also related to a certain GasCan.
I'M A GIRL
This seems like the logical solution
Logic doesn’t always play into these things, though.
"Bruce Wayne is the Brian Wilson of Gotham." -DrDC
Is there any reason to think that a six-man rotation would be more effective at avoiding wear and tear than simply limiting pitchers’ workload per start?
Taking starts away from Lincecum and Cain so as to give them to Vogelong and ZIto seems borderline suicidal.
Some of Owlcroft’s musings have me thinking about the feasibility of a 4 man rotation that pitches for the first two times through the lineup (and no more), a 3 man rotation of guys that come in for the third time through and 4 guys that are late-inning/high leverage specialists…
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on May 25, 2011 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
There are several plausible arrangements.
What is probably the best is to start the game with a reliever type who goes once through the lineup, followed by a starter type who goes twice through the line up, followed by another reliever type—not a “closer”—who finishes the game (unless it goes to extras). The crux is whether relievers who pitch to 9 men can be used every other day, or only every third day. I have asked a lot of presumed experts, from Will Carroll down, about that, and never gotten any real answer. They would have the advantage of knowing just when they’re coming in, and just how many men they’re expected to face. (Nine batters is roughly two average innings, or about 34 to 35 pitches.)
That would certainly need 4 “starter types” and either 4 or 6 “scheduled reliever types”, depending. At worst, it eats 10 staff slots, leaving two for what one could revive the old term “fireman” to describe—men who come in for high-leveage situations and only pitch till the leverage drops. And if the team has position-player versatility and a manager who can avoid the usually unfruitful handedness pinch-hitting swaps, a 13th pitcher can be carried to be used for those odd times, like extra-inning games.
Theer are other advantages and considerations, but this is not a FanPost essay.
The actual scheme that was tried (quite successfully) in the minors was eight pitchers each pitching half a game (5 IP & 4 IP, roles traded off on alternate appearances) every four days. That’s certainly better than the present arrangement, but a lot less advantageous than the first, for various reasons.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I’m skeptical that Zito can come back at anything close to the 4.25 r/g pitcher he has been, but he goes back into the rotation, no questions asked. You can’t take a player’s job away because he happens to get injured — especially when his replacement is such a question mark; especially when said replacement is the more likely to adapt well to the bullpen; and especially especially when you have the player under contract for another couple of years yet.
If both Zito and Vogelsong are pitching okay six weeks from now, it’s time to start thinking about trading Sanchez for a shortstop.
How about taking a player's job away because he sucks?
I’m pretty sure that’s where we’re at with Zito now.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I think the Dave Roberts expeirance answers that.
Sadly.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
by daveinexile on May 27, 2011 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you need to look at it the other way round.
I suspect the real question is “How many bad starts will convince one that his history really was and is indicative?”
I think offhand that he has now earned the “at least two, maybe three” stage (speaking of consecutive outings).
I myself still think it’s his one bright, shining moment.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I think this is the way to look at it.
And about where I’m at now, on the two or three consecutive bad starts front.
I also agree with the idea that when Zito comes back, assuming Vogelsong has had a bad start or two in a row, he should be the long man/swingman out of the pen and Runzler should go down.
Adopted Giant: Mike Fontenot
He's like Grant, but fun size.
The question isn't a front office question
It’s a fan question. At what point do you let yourself start to think he can keep it up? We’ve been hurt by Sadowski’s in the past. Some people don’t care and freely jump on the next “maybe he can” bandwagon that rolls through, and some won’t jump on board until the guy is an established, perennial success.
Its a silly metaphor on my part, but I think it is kind of true. A lot of people will embrace any marginal player that comes along, and all the ups and downs that go with it. Some people only root for the best players, and like it that way.
All that said, I’m enjoying Vogelsong’s bright, shining moment, but I don’t think he’s turned a magical corner. If he kept it up a long time, I might start changing my mind, but there’s a part of me that would always be whispering, “But don’t you remember Estaban Loaiza?”
I'm as tall as Mel. Why can't I hit 500 home runs?
At a minimum, he’s already established himself s a long man.
At what point do you let yourself start to think he can keep it up?
I’m not sure, but a long man who can keep it up? That’s a keeper!
The thong is, it happened.
Careful, Goofus
You’re in danger of becoming a one-dick pony.
Trick! I meant one trick!
"If it's weird, you know it's probably Wilson's." - Matt Cain
Farewell, Andrew Romo. Don't forget to write.
by EliminateMe on May 22, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly
He’s got 2-3 starts of leeway. And that leeway is adjustable based off how they go down and how Zito pitches in rehab. If say he pitches terribly for two starts, and Zito pitches well in rehab then you probly switch. ITs not like you can’t switch back if Zito stinks and Vogelsong is killing it in relief.
I think the thing that we don’t give Giants management enough credit for is their realization that Zito is a marginal player for the Giants now despite his salary. Barry’s feelings or whatever matter for shit. He doesn’t get benefit of the doubt just for his paycheck.
I already believe in him. He’s got great stuff, his only problem has been control. He seems to have found it, and I don’t see why he’d suddenly lose it again.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???
Yeah, I guess it’s possible. He’s certainly pitching with a lot of confidence now though.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???
by rxmeister on May 21, 2011 7:16 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If he does lose it, I’d imagine it would be for the same reason he lost it the last three times he went on a run of 132 batters faced with 10 walks or less.
by sarf_london_niner on May 22, 2011 5:55 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I believe that Vogelsong will continue to be (at the least) an adequate 5th starter. And that’s just peachy.
The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS
and if not
to the bullpen with him, and to Fresno with Runzler.
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on May 24, 2011 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm a believer
The start yesterday convinced me. It wasn’t so much the final results, but how he looked and how many bats he missed. Remember that the zone last night was horrible. Not only was it thin, but it rotated too. Pitching through that let me know that he’s made some real strides.
I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!
Ahem....
I DON’T NOT BELIEVE!!!
Back on the market.
by positiveuphemism on May 21, 2011 8:50 PM PDT reply actions
I DON'T BELIEVE YOU!
I DON'T BELIEVE YOU (AGAIN)
I tweet (more often than I blarg).
by can of corn on May 21, 2011 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Time
Continued success
Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.
I believe he's a better option than Zito
At least while he’s not walking people and Zito still can’t throw faster than 85 MPH. He’s done enough already to convince me of that.
The difference for me is stuff. Vogelsong has good stuff, and Zito (with the exception of the curveball) really doesn’t. If Zito is in control, then he’s a decent pitcher, and certainly rosterable. Without control, he’s a mess and probably doesn’t deserve to be on the 25 man. Vogelsong with control appears to be a good mid-rotation starter with possibly more. Vogelsong with mediocre control is a longman, with no control is a minor leaguer, but that’s true of any pitcher, really. It’s nearly impossible to have success with a BB/9 over 5.
At this point, Vogelsong’s thrown enough to tell me that maybe he’s turned something around, and at this point he’s a better option than Zito and his disappearing fastball. That may turn around if he blows up, and I’m certainly not suggesting he be incapable of losing his rotation spot, but at this point Zito has to earn it from him and shouldn’t automatically get it back when he comes off the DL. Today, I’m more comfortable with Zito as the long man and Vogelsong as the 5th starter. Vogelsong would have to get blown up probably twice, maybe three times consecutively, and Zito would have to pitch well out of the pen for me to switch their roles.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
by quincy0191 on May 21, 2011 10:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That’s a lot more optimistic than I am. That’s part of the reason I pulled all those numbers from Zito’s time as a Giant. He’s had multiple stretches where he not only hasn’t sucked, but been downright fantastic for the Giants, including times when he gets all the shiny strikeouts that make it easier to like Vogelsong.
It’s easy to look at Zito’s performance in broad strokes, and he’s certainly had bad stretches, but Vogelsong would really have to do a lot before I’d think he’s a better rotation option than Zito.
I'm as tall as Mel. Why can't I hit 500 home runs?
My issue with Zito is that his stuff just isn’t good. Even with an 85 MPH fastball he needs good control to post a 4.00-4.50 ERA. Without control he’s not even rosterable. Vogelsong has much better stuff; a low-90’s fastball and good offspeed offerings in a solid curve and change. That gives him a distinct advantage before control is brought into it, and since Zito hasn’t exactly been Mr. Strike Zone I don’t see a reason why he should automatically be given the advantage in that regard.
Vogelsong’s FIP is 2.85. Zito has never had a full-season FIP that good; his closest is a 3.53 in 2001, back when his average fastball was 87 MPH, which he hasn’t come near since 2005. You could cherry-pick stretches where Zito is that good, sure, but with Vogelsong it’s not cherry-picked, it’s his entire body of work. It is possible that this is just a hot streak, but if that’s the case, Vogelsong’s hot streaks are just as good as Zito’s hot streaks, his raw stuff is better, and his peripherals are better. The coincidence of Vogelsong hitting a hot streak just as he’s called up strikes me as suspect as well; over enough time, any player will get hot, but it’s not like Vogelsong’s been in the league for awhile and so the likelihood of having a good stretch increases.
He has done well enough so far that he could still screw up pretty good in the next few starts and raise his FIP/xFIP to 4-5, which would STILL probably be better than Zito, at worst be just about his production, and perfectly acceptable from a 5th starter. So if he can blow up in 2-3 starts before his spot is in jeopardy, then it only makes sense to leave him in the rotation until he blows up a couple times; if he does, then you’ve gotten what you would have from Zito and you can re-evaluate then, and if he doesn’t, then you’ve got a good pitcher in the No. 5 spot, which few teams have.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Prior to his injury, zeet’s fastball this year was at a career low avg. speed by about mph (indeed almost all his pitches were slower, although with fewer samples) and his fastball was at a career level worthlessness. Since whether or not zito is better than vogelsong depends on how much speed and control he can recover, and I have no way of knowing what that will be, I’ve pretty much resigned myself to waiting it out and seeing how it goes. Prior career statistics will have to be adjusted for injury and rehab in addition to normal aging, and without access to those records, there’s simply no way of knowing whether his current ability corresponds to previous. Don’t forget, in addition to the sprain he was in the car accident, late appearing injuries aren’t uncommon.
Basically I’ve resolved not to worry about vogelsong’s performances till zito is playable. Until then, vogelsong is outperforming zito by sheer value of being able to throw a ball in a direction vaguely towards home plate.
Prior to his injury…
That’s a funny way to start a sentence about a pitcher.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
he's already proven himself
but I wouldn’t mind 3-4 wins a month until november
Trade Sabean/jk...Overthrow the Ydorks...
I am not a "real" fan without season tickets-The Lacob Rules
I don't think you should look at these things in binary
It’s not “believing in him” or “not believing in him”, it’s predicting where his current talent level lies. We shouldn’t think “at what arbitrary point do we start totally ignoring a 10 year history?”, but rather “at what rate do we gradually change our opinion?”.
At the start of the season, my best guess for his true talent level (based on his AAA/Japan/historic MLB performance) would have been around 5.5 to 6.0ish (and that isn’t relying on old stats – that’s been the consistent pitcher up until the end of 2010).
My current guess will be based on a weighted average of his 10 year history against this season’s performance. Every extra start means I will weight this season slightly more. Right now, my best guess is probably around 5.0. There’s no arbitrary point where I will “believe” his current season stats are exactly right, though if this went on for a full season I’d be weighting those stats stronger.
by sarf_london_niner on May 22, 2011 5:30 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Clear, succinct, and correct.
rec’d
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
I already believe.
He is the real deal. Fellow Giants fans do not let yourselt be held back by waiting for a large enough sample. Open your minds and let the amatuer scout inside you help you see this truth now without having to wait for the sample size to grow to a stastically acceptable level.
In 2001, Ryan Jensen had a 2.49 ERA in his first four starts.
In 2009, Ryan Sadowski pitched three starts in which he had a 1.00 ERA.
In 2011, in his first five starts, Ryan Vogelsong has a 2.01 ERA.
In conclusion, if a spot starter named Ryan pitches inexplicably well for the Giants over a short period in an odd-numbered year, maintain your skepticism.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
by jcb9 on May 22, 2011 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
non-Ryan improbably good runs by Giants pitchers
Trevor Wilson, 1995: 2.68 ERA after first 8 starts (result: season over my August; out of the Majors for years afterwards)
Jamie Brewington, 1995: 3.10 ERA in his first 8 career starts (result: only made 5 more starts in his career; didn’t resurface in the majors again except for a few relief appearances in 2000)
Shawn Estes, 2001: 1.15 ERA over the course of six starts in May-June (result: 4.63 ERA in the second half; never again had an above-average season per ERA+)
Osvaldo Fernandez, 1996: 1.49 ERA in his final five starts (result: 5.18 ERA for the rest of his career)
Allen Watson, 1996: 2.44 ERA over 7 starts in May-June (result: 5.43 ERA in the second half)
There are, I’m sure, counter-examples as well. But not being skeptical in these cases is dumb.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Skepticism is always wise, but small-sample ERAs tell us close to nothing. Vogelsong represents a different sort of problem from those other names, except possibly Estes.
That small sample size ERAs tell us nothing was kind of my point. I’m assuming your referring here to his also improved peripherals, and I know those normalize quicker, but I still find it hard to believe he can keep those up.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
I think (hope) that few people around here are basing enthusiasm for Vogelsong on ERA. It’s that he’s getting his outs the right way: lots of Ks, keeping the walks under control, keeping the ball underground.
I’m fairly certain he can’t keep those peripherals at the level they’re at now — the question is how far they’re going to fall. Sarf up above says 5.0 r/g; ZIPS says 4.75; my guess would be 4.5. Better if he moves back to the bullpen, which I think he will.
Frankly, I think it’s absolutely incredible the way he’s keeping the ball underground.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2011 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
You two are completely missing my point.
All you are looking at is stats. This is not scouting. Watch Vogelsong pitch! He has actual talent that is superior to any of the pitchers that achieved small sample size success that later turned to not be so hot that you are comparing him to.
"you two" are both me, FYI
And some of those pitchers had a great deal of talent. Shawn Estes was a top-50 prospect (#1 in the Giants’ system). Allen Watson was a Top 10 prospect (in baseball, I mean, not in the Cardinals’ system) just three years before the season I cited. Trevor Wilson was once seen as the future of the Giants’ starting rotation. I keenly (and a little bitterly!) recall Mike Krukow declaring, in 1995, that William Van Landingham and Jamie Brewington would be our #1 and #2 starters for years to come.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
and FWIW
I am rooting for Vogelsong. I saw him pitch in person in that 18-inning game back in 2001. I believe it was his first outing in the big leagues that year, although he’d made a few appearances in 2000. While he lost the game, I was very impressed at the time with his stuff and his poise, and, much as I loved the Jason Schmidt trade, I was sorry to see him go. It’d be a great story if he can put things together now. But it’ll take a hell of a lot more than 4 good starts to convince me.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
It's obvious you hate Vogelsong
Nerb, you’re just rooting against him because you live in your mother’s basement and never even played the game!!! And I’m talking to both of you.
I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!
by Giant Torture on May 23, 2011 5:11 AM PDT up reply actions
looking up BA's 1993 top 100 prospects list
Allen Watson came in at #9, ranked ahead of:
13) Manny Ramirez
20) Javy Lopez
22) Johnny Damon
29) Troy Percival
38) Mike Piazza
44) Derek Jeter
47) Shawn Green
51) Edgar Renteria
62) Pedro Martinez
70) Derek Lowe
95) Bobby Abreu
97) Bret Boone
98) J.T. Snow (side-note: it was Watson who we eventually dealt to get Snow)
From this, I can draw three conclusions:
1) Allen Watson probably had some talent
2) Scouts are wrong sometimes
3) I’m a huge nerd
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Oh, and minor league pitcher Fausto Macey was also sent to St. Louis for Snow.
WHY DO I REMEMBER THIS STUFF!?
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
(conversation with myself LOL)
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Why do you think I refered to you and "you two"?
I just figured i was taking to two different personalities inside one mind.
You mean the Angels not St Louis right?
I mean I know for a fact that the Giants aquired JT Snow from the Angels.
d'oh
Watson came to the Giants from the Cardinals. I’m crossing my wires here. We got him and a couple of forgettable relievers for Royce Clayton.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
And you are missing theirs.
There are no style points in baseball. Pitches are strikes or balls, and are hit or not hit, and if hit are hit well or poorly. All those and other things are detectible and countable. A beautifully thrown ball is still a ball; a sloppily thrown strike is still a strike. Over time, the counts will indicate how effective the man’s pitches are, whether or not they look like “talent”.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
No, just disagreeing.
I completely understand the value of sample size with regards to statistical analysis. However I do not accept that one can not form a reasonable conclusion without statistical analysis.
OK, you do not.
Point settled.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Straw Hats Unite!!!
I still believe in Santa Clause and Bowkermania!
Proud adoptive parent of Brett Bochy, he's my boy now Bruce!
by Giant Torture on May 23, 2011 5:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Scouting is inherently statistical. When you scout a guy who throws a lot of strikes, that’s a statistical analysis. When you scout a guy who misses a lot of bats, that’s a statistical analysis. What you do when you scout is count patterns. You count them. And you base conclusions on that. The fact that the counting you’re doing isn’t laid out numerically on a spreadsheet doesn’t make the analysis non-statistical.
There is absolutely no way to separate scouting from statistics. The only thing that comes close is scouting strictly for mechanics, and even then I’d be skeptical.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course it is
but would you “scout” someone based completely on statistics? Is there no value to video?
I understand I am overstating this. There is value in both.
would you "scout" someone based completely on statistics? Is there no value to video?
I don’t know what I said that led to this question being asked.
I in absolutely no way suggest that either eyeball scouting and statistical analysis stand independent of the other. They are inextricable. To attempt either one is pretty foolish. Where did I say something other than this?
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 24, 2011 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
To attempt either one without the other, I should say. Because that’s what I meant to say.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 24, 2011 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
From Keith Law today (answering some question)
Which is why I use both data and direct (visual) evaluations. Either one without the other is too limited
And quite often, I would suggest, pure delusion.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 24, 2011 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
He'll Be in the Bullpen
Giants can’t sit 18M… and they understand what small sample sizes are… Vogelsong might have completely turned it around, but why not move him to the bullpen with confidence
They can happily sit 18M
Just like they did in the playoffs last year. We’re way way past Zito earning his contract. Its a much worse PR move to put him in the rotation just for the sake of him earning his 18M. The fans and media are going to come down much harder on that move then “wasting” Zito’s money. Its been wasted for 3 years now and everyone knows it.
Vogelsong stays in the rotation. It will be pretty easy in the interim. Zito will have rehab starts in the minors and Vogelsong will continue to start. If Vogelsong has 2-3 bad starts in a row and Zito is pitching well, Hey! Barry’s healthy, he was going to get his spot back the whole time! If Voegelsong continues to pitch well, it will be about 8-9 starts of quality pitching and we will be close to halfway through the season. They will not dick around with a pennant season to justify a dumb decision made 5 years ago.
One way or another some pitcher will have to be waived though because after Casilla comes back (at which point I assume Runzler goes down) nobody will have any options left (well, nobody you’d want to send down anyway, I assume Wilson and Romo both do). So it becomes a matter of who you want to get rid of: Vogelson, Mota, Casilla? Personally, at this point I wouldn’t mind seeing Affeldt get his walking papers just to prevent Bochy from using him in the 7th inning anymore, but I suspect that’s not going to happen.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Dumping Affeldt would be good
So would seeing what you can get for Ramirez. There’s very little chance he’s actually this good, so we might as well see if we can extract something interesting from someone else.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
There's a better chance than you think about Ramirez.
But we’ve discussed that before.
Few developments would make me happier than to see a trade (Rangers?) sending out Affeldt and Casilla for, say, a batboy.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Phillies seem more likely to need relief help than Texas
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
What do they have in terms of batboys?
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2011 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Just that there's a rumor Texas is looking for relievers.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
Apparently they asked about Joel Hanrahan and Heath Bell
So I think they’re looking for closers. This does remind me that apparently Sabean was listening to offers for Wilson this winter, but I really can’t see him being moved unless it was for a King’s ransom
And yet, would you want to tie Wilson up long-term? I question the payoff of what a contract buying out his prime FA years would be.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
A team should never tie up a reliever long-term
Three years should be the absolute maximum on any contract, and even that’s only for guys with a good history of excellence. Two years for SU/good MR, one year for regular MR. Extend at will.
I’m getting to the point where I would listen on Wilson, though if he’d stay at a reduced price (which I think he would), under $10M a season and likely close to his $8.5M 2012 salary, I’d hang onto him. He’s such a great reliever, and more importantly, a great personality and a fan favorite that trading him would be hard, but he’s pretty much at peak value.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
If I was running the team, absolutely I'd listen to offers
I believe that Romo could close and generally if you have the chance to cash in on a reliever you should go for it.
by Gobroks on May 24, 2011 11:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I'll believe if he's still pitching like this in July. But I don't need to believe for him to replace Zito
Vogelsong has been great, and I don’t know if he can sustain it. I sure hope he can. However he’s doing far better than Zito. In my opinion, Zito’s performance this year hasn’t been “bad luck” or whatever. His velocity is significantly down from previous years (where it was already miserable).
The moment Zito went to the DL, I said his career was over. I still think that’s true. Vogelsong stays.
Zito has the least talent on their entire pitching staff at this point in his career. Any other player they take out for him would be a downgrade. Money is money, but the only point to keeping Zito would be the expectation he’ll improve, and he is only getting worse. Maybe give him some rehab in the minors like we experimented with on Dontrelle Willis.
But Zito is done. Long live Ryan Vogelsong, number 5 starter. If he keeps it up, one of the best #5 starters out there.
Spot on
Another reason to keep Zito out of the rotation is his contract, which calls for an eighth?#%WTF!?1*X year to automatically vest if he pitches a certain # of innings in 2011, 2012 and 2013. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but as I remember it ’14 vests if he pitches a huge # of innings in ’13, or a slightly lower average # of innings in ’12 and ’13, of an even lower average # of innings in ’11, ’12 and ’13. The bottom line is keeping this cancer off the mound for as long as possible is lowering the possibility of having to endure an eighth?#%WTF!?1*X year of Zitosuck.
by betterthanbochy on May 23, 2011 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
The contract is no longer relevant this year
It’s 200 innings in 2013, or 400 innings in 2012-2013, or 600 innings in 2011-2013. He’s never hit 200 innings for the Giants, and he certainly won’t after missing 5 starts. So he can’t trigger the final condition without triggering the second one.
by sarf_london_niner on May 23, 2011 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Just so I understand
There are three different scenarios that will earn him an eighth year:
1) 200 innings in 2013;
2) a combined 400 innings in 2012 and 2013;
3) a combined 600 innings in ’11, ’12 and ’13.
All he has to do is hit one of the three and the Giants are stuck with him in 2014. Yes, at this point scenario 3 is the least likely as he will be hard-press to reach 100 innings this year. Still, the Giants can’t let this dog exceed 200 innings next year: 210 innings in ’12 means he only needs 190 in ’13.
So he can’t trigger the final condition without triggering the second one.
That sentence confused me. It implies that he has to reach all three conditions.??
by betterthanbochy on May 23, 2011 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions
The key phrase is . . .
. . . “He’s never hit 200 innings for the Giants”. If I’m reading it aright, the conditionality is practical rather than contractual.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Wir sind gewohnt, daß die Menschen verhöhnen was sie nicht verstehn.—Goethe
It’s true he’s never hit 200 innings for the Giants, but it’s worth noting that he hasn’t exactly been missing it by a mile. He’s thrown over 190 IP in three of his 4 seasons with the Giants and more than 195 in two of them. Last year he threw 199.1 innings. And he’s never had arm trouble. The notion of him throwing a cumulative 400 innings the next couple of years or 200 in 2013 isn’t completely far-fetched. It would require some nature of return to decent form certainly, but not a much greater improvement than we saw him make from 2008 to 2009. (I realize some will argue that the Giants would make sure he didn’t reach that incentive in 2013 if he were closing in on it, but the MLBPA keeps a sharp eye on such practices and I think we could guarantee a complaint from that quarters if any obvious PT shenanigans interceded in the home stretch).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
The MLBPA would have a hard time finding someone. . .
. . .who could keep a straight face while arguing that Zito’s performance warranted a spot in the Fresno rotation, let alone San Francisco.
by betterthanbochy on May 23, 2011 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't conflate overpaid with not good
Zito has been a decent pitcher the last 2 years, certainly worthy of a spot in just about ANY rotation in MLB.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Not the way he was throwing to start the year
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Check Fangraphs
His velocity is down 3 mph this year. That is gigantic for one season, especially when you were throwing 85 already.
I know
That was my point. He’s not worthy of a spot in just about any rotation in MLB the way he was throwing to start the year. An 83 MPH fastball isn’t going to cut it unless you’re a knuckleballer or Zombie Jamie Moyer.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
You guys are drawing way too definitive conclusions from 3 starts.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
You kind of have to do that in-season though
If a guy is blowing it and you’re trying to contend, can you really give him half a season before you dump him from the rotation? Especially Zito (if Timmy struggles I think he gets more leeway, but even good Zito isn’t that good)?
But this isn’t a control issue or a luck issue, something that could be fixed quickly. His stuff is getting worse. It’s been getting worse, this is just a continuation of that trend, and he’s reached a tipping point where he just cannot throw like this and be successful. I’d love to know if Zito is worth it or not, but I don’t want to lose a bunch of games because we weren’t sure, when IMO worst case scenario for Vogelsong is he’s as bad as bad Zito, which we would probably get from Zito.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
If by:
His stuff is getting worse. It’s been getting worse, this is just a continuation of that trend, and he’s reached a tipping point where he just cannot throw like this and be successful.
You mean the 3 starts he’s made this year, you are correct.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
His stuff has been on the decline for years
This season it took a pretty dramatic turn for the worse in the small sample, but his fastball velocity has been trending downwards already. I really don’t expect to see a return to 87 MPH when he comes off the DL, and even a gain back to where he’s been the last few years produces a projected 4+ ERA, which is valuable, but Vogelsong has zero risk since he’s on a minor league deal and a lot more upside.
Okay, it’s three starts. Vogelsong’s only made five starts. But considering the Giants don’t have the offensive cojones to make up for bad pitching, how long would you have to see Zito to determine that his stuff is bad, and how much of an impact would that have on the Giants? I would imagine you’d need something like 10 consecutive starts, and if his stuff really is as bad as it’s been, then you’re basically committing to a 2-8 or 3-7 record over that period. I’m not sure the Giants can afford to be so cavalier about wins just to figure out that Zito is done, especially when Vogelsong is pitching so well, the division is fairly tight, and the upside of letting Zito try to get back in the rotation is a 4.20 ERA pitcher.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
No, he only has to reach one out of three. But, like I said this season it’s not relevant. As long as he doesn’t hit 200, it makes no difference – 100, 150, 175,199.2: they’re all the same for the purposes of the vesting.
Given that, if we think Zito is the better pitcher he should pitch. If he’s not, he shouldn’t. The contract doesn’t come into it.
by sarf_london_niner on May 23, 2011 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
newsletter? subcribe please.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
by daveinexile on May 27, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Whatever happens, I’ll continue to be bewildered for as long as he keeps it up. I probably won’t be able to accept it whole-heartedly unless he makes it to the end of the season without regressing too far peripherally. But I also think he’s made it to the “I’ll turn on you when you totally prove you suck” phase, which is way better than they “I’ll turn on you out at the first sign of suck phase”. Unless his peripherals really start to suffer, I don’t see how you can justify putting Zito anywhere but the bullpen when he comes back.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
Do you belieeeeve in vogelsong after vogelsong
I can feel something inside me say
I really don’t think he’s strong enough ohhhhhhh
I blame that song for bringing autotune into a popular context.
I believe there is also a Bon Jovi song that deserves some blame, but I can never remember which one.
Currently stifling the bacon, the world.
by howtheyscored on May 23, 2011 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he's the real deal until he isn't anymore
Good pop, movement and command. Sometimes command is something simple in a guy’s mechanics or just a subtle change in his stride…Torres besides extra conditioning made some very subtle, but effective and dramatic changes to his swing last year.
I would like to believe Vogelson will last, because I want it to last. I really am tired of the Zito story and all the chatter and silliness that has so little to contribute to the really nice story the Giants have become since last September. From a fan’s standpoint, I don’t want to hear about Zito’s travails or anything else that has been going on since he got here. He wasn’t around for the post-season. He’s not around now. And the team keeps on coming up big and playing exciting ball, all things considered.
I would not mind Keeping it that way.
If it’s not broke don’t fix it.
Zito on the 25 man roster: 8-7
Vogelsong on the 25 man: 19-12
by betterthanbochy on May 23, 2011 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
This is an even worse argument than the one that involved the Giants record with Bonds in the lineup and without.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Maybe
But at least then it was an everyday player. In the Ztio/Vogelsong case, they’re not even playing 4 out of 5 games but they’re still getting credits and debits for those games. Insanity.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Just dinner and one wild, uninhibited night
….but Im foolish that way.
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on May 23, 2011 3:07 PM PDT reply actions
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