Expecting regression and injuries seems kind of unfounded. That’s why the Giants are generally considered the favorite to win the division. Obviously, the playoffs are anyone’s guess, so his premise that the Giants won’t repeat is kind of an easy bet. But he seems to argue that they got lucky, which we all know is bullshit.

A team with Jeff Suppan or Todd Wellemeyer getting a solid portion of starts throughout the course of a season couldn’t possibly win the World Series.
Oh wait….

being “due”

Lets say that major injuries are essentially random with a 1 in 5 probability of happening to any particular pitcher. The Giants top-5 starters last season all managed to avoid injury. That doesn’t make them “due” in the sense than the base chance of injury goes higher, but that 1 in 5 risk per pitcher is hugely higher than the 0 in 5 reality that occurred last season. “Due” is a loaded word with a connotation that doesn’t quite fit, but the underlying idea that the Giants were fortunate last season in a way that they probably won’t be going forward is fairly accurate.

But that’s not what they’re saying.

Buck’s points are that the Giants are relying on a career year from a guy who’s been really inconsistent, are hoping their key players don’t get hurt, and they signed an older shortstop. This is stupid.

First, Huff looked great last year by any measure. Grit guys like the inside-the-park homer, the RBIs and the nice BA. Stat guys like the excellent walk rate (which is supposed to normalize quickly and comes with the concurrent addition of Meulens as hitting coach) and the power without the strikeouts. The positive UZR is a little more strange, but perhaps it’s because in 2009 he actually played 1B for an extended period of time, carried it over into this year, and also stayed in the field all year. I don’t expect him to be a great fielder, but he probably won’t be giving away runs left and right.

Second, the pitchers didn’t get hurt. Well, if they did, we’d probably be screwed, because anytime you lose a key player or two that really hurts your season. Just ask the Red Sox and Mets. Can’t win games when your stars are hurt unless you’re just stupidly good. But that’s a problem for every team, not just the Giants. Why aren’t the Phillies or Yankees getting the same treatment from their aging offenses?

Third, Miguel Tejada. Well, what did you want Sabean to do? Bartlett would have been fine, but I’d rather spend money than prospects AND money, and Bartlett isn’t a safe bet to be better anyway. I never thought Hardy was actually available until he got dealt, and maybe Sabean suffered from the same delusion, but he’s got a similar problem anyway (though he’s probably a better pickup than Tejada anyway). Uribe went to the Dodgers for too much money. Renteria wouldn’t take what I thought was a lowball offer, but he wasn’t worth much more, so it’s hard to get upset about that. Brendan Ryan can’t hit. We’ll never know if Marco Scutaro was really available. All things considered, Tejada wasn’t a bad pickup.

But these are all things you and everyone else around here already knows. The problem is, we’re sick of people out there talking like these are problems that need to be addressed. It’s like they’re looking for reasons the Giants are going to fail, and for some reason won’t accept that the Giants are a good team who may very well fail because winning a championship is that hard. Still, if they’re going to look for reasons, why not get creative? The bullpen could be a problem; we’re deep, but like the rotation, losing a member or two could prove the difference in a tight division. Plus, it’s not the kind of loss where you really think the team could go down because of it; losing Wilson would hurt, but few think that it could cost us the division like losing Lincecum. And why not point out the relative lack of offensive stars? Instead of pointing out how Huff could regress, say that even if Huff hits as well as he did, we’re still counting on Burrell and Sandoval to come out strong, Torres to keep hitting like Not-Rowand, Sanchez’ various limbs to hold up, etc. For a team with a deep bench now, we could have issues considering the number of players in the lineup who are one bad season from being considered a minor league invite.

But all these articles are saying the same things. Either find something new or shut up; I’m sick of the repetition.

I bet he likes to use the phrase ‘going Buck wild’ to describe himself in bed.

damn you, Josh from Hollywood for beating me to this joke! I didn’t see your comment until I clicked post. Too many long work days. Haven’t been posting much, (much to the board’s relief) because I work 13 hour days and then come home to see 10,000 posts on the main board’s topic. When the actual season starts in two weeks, I’ll start popping the No Doz again and staying up all hours of the night posting my usual garbage!