BP Top 101 prospects
2 Giants make it, and KG mentioned that Gary Brown was very close
about 1 year ago
Gobroks
39 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
I think that Zack Wheeler will be one of the major movers (up) by the end of this coming season.
Is anybody else as surprised as I am that Wil Myers of the Royals is still ranked so high by all of the services (he’s #13 on this list) now that he’s no longer going to be a catcher?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Indeed
If Wheeler stays healthy and flashes what he’s capable of he’ll be a big mover. I definitely see him as a top 25 prospect talent at the very least if he’s healthy
Imagine. Lincecum still hitting 99-101 with the gun. Greatest pitcher of modern time??
by Vaccaro on Feb 28, 2011 6:29 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I've heard Wheeler described as one of the highest-upside pitching prospects in baseball
Plus velocity, high-K, high-GB% profile? Yes please. And if I had to trust one organization to get him there, it’d be the Giants. He’ll be the #2 in 2014 after a nice big league debut the previous year, adding a fourth ace to the still-intact core of Timmy, Cain, and Bumgarner. It’s going to be weird to have Matty as the #4 starter (at least talent-wise).
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
That is if you believe Bumgarner will be of higher talent than Cain.
I personally think that Bumgarners potential is a Matt Cain. Even tho Cain is a flyball pitcher and Bumgarner gets a lot more ground ball, I think Bumgarners ceiling is a 200 + inning 3 ERA guy, much like Cain. We’ll see tho. But your rite about Wheeler, this could be a Cy Young candidate and I certainly believe he profiles as an ace if he stays healthy. Maybe I’m getting a little greedy though. We’re so used to the Giants pumping out aces from their system in recent years. Let’s not forget Liriano is an ace as well. But Wheeler could definitely do it
Imagine. Lincecum still hitting 99-101 with the gun. Greatest pitcher of modern time??
by Vaccaro on Feb 28, 2011 8:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Cain: I admit it, you are better than I am.
MadBum: Then why are you smiling?
Cain: Because I know something you don’t know.
MadBum: And, what is that?
Cain: I am not left handed.
by KrazyKrabMeat on Mar 1, 2011 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, his bat looks special. In that way, he’s like a (slightly) poor man’s Bryce Harper — with that bat there’s just no reason to slow down his development by keeping him at Catcher.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Yeah I think he would've been able to stay at C if a team wanted to give him enough time
But with his bat I understand the call. Also, call me crazy but I have him rated as a better prospect than Harper
by Gobroks on Mar 1, 2011 5:55 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
He is, I just really like Myers
I see Myers as a potential .300/.400/.500 guy with + D in RF vs Harper is more of a .265/.350/.600 guy with average to + D in RF. Really you can’t go wrong though
And FWIW
I have Myers as the 3rd best prospect and Harper as the 4th so it’s not like there’s a huge difference
His arm is still special so there’s good reason to hope, but going into his age 21 season you’d certainly like to have seen more development out of him than we have thus far. At this point in their careers, it certainly looks like the Giants did not get the best of that crop of HS pitchers. Of course, after the Cain/Lincecum/Posey/Bumgarner run it’s a tad inappropriate to complain about it.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I don’t think that you can rely on age too much when evaluating Wheeler’s development at this point. He was already 19 years old when we drafted him in 2009, so he’s always going to be an outlier in comparison to the vast majority of the other high school kids in his draft class. What will be important to watch with Wheeler is how he progresses with respect to others in his draft class
That being said, I don’t see any other HS pitcher from his class besides Turner and Miller that eclipsed Wheeler’s performance in 2010. At this point, the only HS pitcher in that draft class that I’d trade Wheeler for would be Miller, but I do see Wheeler as ending up being just as good as any of them 3 years down the road.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Without dragging TINSTAAP into the discussion there’s only one thing a person needs to see Wheeler being as good a pitcher as Shelby Miller three years down the road and that’s the desire to do so, because there’s certainly no empirical arguments that will support you. Miller’s scouting report is better at this point and his results thus far are quite a bit better, despite playing effectively, at a year younger age. To say that Wheeler will be as good a pitcher as Miller in three years is really the same as to say he’ll be as good a pitcher as Bumgarner or Lincecum in three years: it very well could prove to be true, but there’s no rationale for believing it.
I would argue that age is always a crucial component of rating a player’s development because you can’t get it back. The professional innings he didn’t throw at 20 and 19 are lost forever. Miller has thrown 107.1 pro innings and he didn’t turn 20 until last fall. Wheeler has managed only have that many innings and he’ll be 21 in May.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I don't think that's fair
Just because you don’t agree with his rationale doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist.
There are a number of logical rationales that could lead one to think Wheeler will be better in three years. 1) He was injured this year, will do better in a full season of work. 2) He had good command in high school, no reason he can’t find it again. 3) His groundball rate was pretty amazing for a person also maintaining a k/9 close to 11. 4) The Giants are a better organization at scouting and developing pitchers and they took Wheeler over Miller. 5) They were in their first season playing A – ball, results are somewhat overrated. 6) The fact that he has less innings under his belt at his age could be considered a plus.
Now do I rank Shelby Miller as a higher prospect than Wheeler, yes, but that doesn’t make someone who disagrees with me inherently irrational. They may just evaluate and project players different than me.
Well, Roger does bring up some good points, and the Cards and Tigers have done a pretty good job of developing young pitchers over the past 10 years. However, I do think that Roger mistook my point about Wheeler’s age. Certainly, Miller and Turner’s younger ages are a big factor in rating them ahead of Wheeler at this point. I was just saying that Wheeler doesn’t have the advantage of an added year of experience in pro ball that the vast majority of other pitching prospects Wheeler’s age have over Miller, Turner, and all but a few of the prospects in the 2009 draft class, so that is something that needs to be taken into consideration. Most scouts believe that Wheeler (as well as Turner and Miller) will get much better as they gain more pro experience. Certainly Wheeler is behind the curve now, when compared to the other 2 guys, because of his advanced age, but every pitcher will plateau at some point in his mid-20s, so Wheeler has time to match them. Wheeler still has at least 1 more season of pro ball before he reaches the age that the typical college pitcher is when he begins his pro career.
To say that Wheeler will be as good a pitcher as Miller in three years is really the same as to say he’ll be as good a pitcher as Bumgarner or Lincecum in three years: it very well could prove to be true, but there’s no rationale for believing it.
This is the 1 thing that I totally disagree with that Roger wrote. There’s no way that anyone can guarantee that Miller will ever have the success and pitching chops that Timmy and MadBum have already earned. Saying that Wheeler will be just as good a pitcher as Miller in 3 years is nowhere near the equivalence that he laid out. For all that we know now they could both easily be busts in AAA 3 years from now.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I do plead guilty to the unrestrained use of hyperbole in that. Though I was trying to make a more general point about the volatility of pitching — that we really have no way of knowing which of those 4 will be the better pitcher come the 2014 season, and that that’s much truer of pitchers than it would be of a comparable group of 4 position players.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
O
I thought you were making the opposite point. By comparing Miller to Timmy and Bum I thought you were saying he was a sure thing whereas Wheeler was more of a wildcard. I agree we really don’t have enough information about either pitcher to definitively say what they will be in three years.
And while its true the Cards and Tigers have both developed an ace within the last 10 years, I still don’t think it’s hard to prove that the Giants have been a little more successful than either team in this department.
No one doing rankings thought he was a catcher long term when they ranked him.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Then why does every list that has come out in the past 6 weeks have him listed as a catcher?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Because the Royals didn’t announce that they were changing his position until a couple weeks ago. Thus BA’s prospect handbook, which went to press a couple months ago lists him as a C, but their Top 100, which came out this week, lists him OF/C.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Which just backs up my original point that Myers was still being considered as a catching prospect when these rankings were being finalized, so Myers should now be ranked lower.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
People who were ranking him didn’t really consider him a catcher, in that they didn’t a) think he’d stay at the position, or b) derive any of his value from the position. In that regard, the position label didn’t really factor into the evaluation.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
This
They listed him as catcher as that’s what the org said they were, but they didn’t think he would be a catcher long term and so they judged his future value on that.
It’s the same thing with Montero, I’d have to think he’d be #1 easily if the rankers thought he would stay at catcher.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Assuming Belt goes to Fresno
…it’ll be interesting to see where he ends up this time next year…top 10?
The thong is, it happened.
I’d guess he’ll still get enough major league time in lose his eligibility before the season’s over.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
This
He’s on the Posey track.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
yep...
the very convenient track whereby he’ll juuuuuuuust miss being Super-Two eligible in a couple of years is my guess…
Unless two of Huff/Burrel/DeRosa totally implode and his help is needed sooner.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Mar 1, 2011 10:57 PM PST up reply actions
Except that Posey is likely to be a Super 2, even with the delayed call-up.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Assuming the Super 2 is still around
But yes, he likely is. His team control clock did get pushed back a year though.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
On a related note, somewhat interesting item in the latest Ask BA. In addition to the two Giants who made the Top 100, two others were considered on several of the panels Top 150 (the preliminary step to compiling the Top 100). Frankie Pegs was one of only 10 players who were on all 6 ballots (though none had him in their Top 100), while Gary Brown was named on 4 of the editors’ lists, with a peak value of 96.
Thomas Neal, who ranked #96 in last year’s Top 100, failed to make any of the 6 editors Top 150 this year.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Thanks for that bit of info
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
