"The feeling around the league" is that the Giants will eventually have to part ways with one of...

"The feeling around the league" is that the Giants will eventually have to part ways with one of the two aces.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/giants-notes-cain-lincecum-ishikawa.html

Comments

Interesting thing about that link is that the “quote” from which you take your fanshot title is completely unattributed. It’s the one note which is not included in the Baggarly column they link to. There’s no mention of who they’re quoting or where “the feeling” comes from.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Dec 9, 2011 2:49 PM PST reply actions

I truly doubt one of the main premises of the theory – that Timmy could be awarded more than $30M should he go to arb before the 2013 season. I think that’s a load of BS, as arbitrator have been very cognizant of not moving the bar too much, too quickly.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Dec 9, 2011 3:31 PM PST reply actions

I think teams around the league

just really, really hope one of them will become available.

The Giants FO has broke all of our hopes to bring a big (or even moderate) acquisition to help the team for 2012 based on the promise and premise that they will have to save that money for locking up Cain and Lincecum. Given that those two guys ARE the cornerstones upon which the franchise is currently built, I would expect them to do whatever is necessary to make that happen. And especially after seeing St. Louis drag its feet in extending Pujols, they know better than to let them get anywhere near FA.

And I do think that it is somewhat encouraging, given everything that Timmy has said so far about preferring to go year-to-year (which would ensure a ridiculous FA payday), that his side said they’d want to sign an 8-year extension.

The Giants want four, but anything eight years or less and I would be thrilled. His next two years are arb years, and anything after that is FA. He would reach FA before his age-30 season, and an 8 year extension now would bring lock him up through his age 35 season. Given that next year will be Halladay’s age-35 and Cliff Lee’s age-33 seasons, I think that eight years would be acceptable if it came with a decent enough of a discount (say the same extension as Matt Kemp’s 8/160). Even if he’s not the same old Timmy at 35, getting him for an average of $20m/year during his prime is a good deal.

That said, if he could be extended for 6 or 7 years, that would be even better. As it stands, he would reach FA at 30 and in all likelihood get at least a 6-8 year contract then and be paid well over $25m/year. In short, that would be a much less safe investment, and one that I dont know if the Giants would be able to make given what the interest in Timmy would likely be.

Extending him now, even if it takes 8 years, should be the top priority for Sabean. If he has to extend him next year, more leverage is lost as Timmy approaches FA, and an eight year extension then would take Timmy through his age 36 season. It would also be likely to cost more.

Meanwhile, the 6yr/$99m offer that Wilson received from the Marlins is being made into a comparable for Cain. If Cain were extended for 6/99, that would be a steal in my eyes. Teams would pay a ridiculous amount of money to get a guy entering FA in his age-28 season following the phenomenal career that Cain has had. Cain would be due for 6-8 years, likely over $20m/per. If Mark Buehrle can get 4/58 entering his age 33 season on account of his durability and consistency, a guy five years younger who has shown the same attributes while being a much better overall pitcher is likely to get PAID.

by OrgoneDonor on Dec 9, 2011 9:03 PM PST reply actions

I think it’s only common sense that, going forward, the Giants cannot field a competitive team (this would include an offense, Mr. Sabean) and pay top dollar to two elite starting pitchers. Whether this is an attributale rumor or not, it is my presupposition, and has been since TGWTWS.

And I am certain which of the two I would prefer to keep.

Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2011 4:52 AM PST reply actions

"attributable" - assuming that's even a word

Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2011 4:52 AM PST up reply actions

The Giants are, essentially, already paying top-dollar to two starting pitchers.

One of them just happens to be Zito, and Cain and Lincecum are already quite expensive.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 10, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t have the figures here in front of me, but aren’t the Giants paying Zito, Cain, and Lincecum each well over $12m/yr? Something like 19, 17, and 15 – or thereabouts? So I guess we’re paying THREE elite salaries. Sheesh, no wonder we don’t have an offense.

Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.

by Lyle on Dec 10, 2011 5:20 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, but I don't really consider 15M an "elite" salary any more.

But I may have a high baseline for elite.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 10, 2011 5:38 PM PST up reply actions

CJ Wilson and Buerlhe beg to differ

In 2011, it was 18.5 to Zeets, 7 to Cain and 13 to Timmy… or $38.5MM for all 3.

In 2012 it will be 19 to Zeets, 15 to Cain and ?? for Timmy. Most project around 18-19 for him. So $53-54MM.

by Nivra on Dec 11, 2011 9:23 AM PST up reply actions

In other words...

If the Giants can tie up both for $40MM AAV, then they would have a future salary similar to 2011 except with Rowand,Huff,Tejaja,Franchez money that would be primarily used to pay arb-increases and potential FA’s.

by Nivra on Dec 11, 2011 9:27 AM PST up reply actions

I’m not sure I followed your point. I thought your conclusion was that we’d be in the same boat next year that we were in this past year – paying lots of money to a few guys and then having to scrape the bottom of the barrel to finish out the roster cheaply. (The exception being that we’d be paying big bucks to guys who should, in theory, be more nearly worth it).

Or did I misunderstand?

Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.

by Lyle on Dec 11, 2011 12:08 PM PST up reply actions

Yah, that exception...

Rowand, Huff, Tejaja, Franchez come to $34MM for 1.1 WAR. At roughly $5MM per win, that should’ve been 6.8 wins. Four more wins would’ve tied the Cards for the WC, and five more would’ve won the wild card outright.

Sounds about right, to me. Now if the Giants were at all savvy and tried to find free agent bargains such as, oh, I don’t know, a 4.7 WAR player for $10MM dollars, then that money goes even further.

Either way, I think with a budget at about $130MM, the best thing to do is to tie up 60-80% of it in a few players and fill out the rest of the roster with cost-controlled talent. Hence the importance of a strong farm system and the longing for a Wheeler do-over.

by Nivra on Dec 11, 2011 10:24 PM PST up reply actions

Fuck that.

As a Giants fan I have been assured that every penny is being pinched for the sole sake of keeping Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain around until they break down and die. Their 70 year-old selves will be presiding over the first opening days witnessed by our grandchildren.

If we can’t have Beltran for a couple of years, so the fuck what. I can forget Beltran. But this is the Lincecum-Cain era of Giants baseball, the first legitimate ray of hope since 2002, really. They won the goddamn world series. I can forget one month of a Beltran-legitimate offense in a season that had been condemned in June. I cannot forget the way that Lincecum and Cain and Bumgarner systematically dismantled one of the AL’s (a league lauded as superior because of their offense, if you hadn’t already heard) most potent lineups en route to a World Series rout.

But if it turns out that the organization is so bereft of leadership and direction to be unable to convince a couple of kids to be a part of the gloried history of a gloried franchise? The Yankees can convince an aging Lincecum to pitch in their tinny little bandbox, and the Giants can’t throw him an extra couple years and millions? I’m getting French Revolution up in here. Bobbleheads will roll.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Dec 15, 2011 5:15 PM PST reply actions