Community Prospect List #16
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 29, 2011 12:54 AM PST
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PrintHey all, sorry about the delay in getting this posted, I had quite a long travel day back to school today. Anyways, Conor Gillaspie wins the 15th slot, and we move on to #16. In order to get ourselves back on a more normal time schedule, I will keep this poll open until 12 PM PST on Friday, December 30th.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
11. Josh Osich
12. Clayton Blackburn
13. Adalberto Mejia
14. Adam Duvall
15. Conor Gillaspie
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Ricky Oropesa
If you want to see any names added to the poll, mention them in the comments. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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No apologies necessary.
You rock for running these! All so-called-delays are perfectly timed and the posts show up exactly when we need them to :D
This is a lot of work. It’s not like one us is going to do it. Thanks again for all of the hard work.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Agreed. Thanks for picking up the baton!
By the way, I don’t know if this is much known among the McCoven, but FP turned himself into a pretty decent Color Commentator this year. Not saying much, but he’s the best color man the Nats have ever had I think.
I voted Jones. To me, he’s the one guy on the list with the potential to be an All-Star player. Not saying he’ll be one, just that his physical tools are awesome.
After Jones, I’d go with Kickham, then Flores, then Oropesa. I see each of them as still having potential to be above-average major leaguers. Same caveat applies, of course.
I’m floored that Conor Gillaspie was chosen over these four. To me, he’s clearly not the droid we’re looking for. Same with Mr. Culberson.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
I think Chuckie would might be an awesome football player. But it’s hard to see how he’s going to survive with such a poor ability to put bat on ball, and thus far, he hasn’t done much of anything with the ball when he does make contact.
He’s certainly a lottery pick player, but something really serious needs to happen soon for him to ever be a guy who can eve make it to the mid-minors, much less majors.
teenagers in the SAL
Flores and Chuckie will both qualify. One of the things about teenagers in the SAL is that they have tons of room to grow. They could still have 4 years ahead of them to put it all together. Actually, that’s a good question: How long do the prospects in your study take to get to the majors? I expect it would change based on your category of success. e.g. All-Stars average 2 years or less, starters are 3 or less, etc.
I’m thinking Chuckie will be back in SK, he just didn’t play much and didn’t show much when he did. I went with Oropesa for potential, I really like Gallindo though.
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan, Jeremiah Luster,Trey Webb,David Quinowski, Jeff Arnold,Brandon Allen, Chris Gloor and Brian Maloney.
"GM Jack Zduriencik is one of the sharper tools in the shed. Elsewhere in that shed, Brian Sabean continues to pound screws into bricks with a garden rake."
Rich
See if you can finagle your way into housing Chuckie this summer. I’d love to get a better read on him and what makes him tick.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
I have an almost 17 year old daughter that thinks Chuckie is the bomb, not sure how that would work out. Wondering however if Osich might be here so was thinking I may request him if he comes. Tried to get Panik last year but apparently the owner placed him with a personal friend. Go figure.
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan, Jeremiah Luster,Trey Webb,David Quinowski, Jeff Arnold,Brandon Allen, Chris Gloor and Brian Maloney.
"GM Jack Zduriencik is one of the sharper tools in the shed. Elsewhere in that shed, Brian Sabean continues to pound screws into bricks with a garden rake."
Also floored that Gillaspie was picked
Minor league systems are filled with guys like him, and they tend to only work out when they get lucky. He has no tool to stand on, and little to offer, especially this team. And no trade value. Ugly.
At least Kendry Flores, Chuckie, Oropesa, Galindo, and Dunnington have the potential to be good. Gillapsie’s upside is acceptable mediocrity. I can never vote for a guy like that.
But he's very close to acceptable mediocrity
The guys you listed are quite far from that, and even if Dunnington is great he probably won’t be much more valuable than Gillaspie’s acceptable mediocrity simply because he’s a RP.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I think I’m going to go Flores here, but I’m going to wait awhile and check out the arguments first.
I do have to say that I have trouble understanding why Oropesa is getting tons of votes while Dominguez isn’t even on the list. They have too many similarities IMO to be getting such disparate treatment (other than the old saw that we’ve all seen Dominguez’ flaws and haven’t seen Oropesa’s yet), and I would have to give the slight advantage to Dominguez between the two, due to some history of pro success and defensive value.
Good point. With power being at a premium they should both be on the list, flaws and potential flaws included.
What happened to all the Galindo love Roger?
Don’t know that I love Galindo. Just wanted to point out his pluses for those who didnt have him on their radar. He’s definitely in my personal Top 20, though.
This next grouping for me is probably Flores, Culberson, Galindo, Mendoza, Dominguez, Kickham, Parker, Oropesa, Dunnington, Jones, Payne. Something like that.
Like Roger, I’ll wait a little bit for some more discussion/data before I vote in this one. Because I am terminally optimistic, I’ve got these guys in some combination for the next five:
Galindo, Dominguez, Flores, Culberson, Parker or Oropesa or Jones
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Parker below Dominguez?
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Maybe. Doesn’t look so good when you do the straight up comparison thought does it? But what the heck, I’m a tools guy and Dominguez for all his faults has two plus ones, while I can’t anybody to suggest Parker’s got one. He does walk pretty though. But when the only thing you’re really good at is not swinging the bat, you’re going to have trouble getting major league looks, for better or for worse.
A 13% walk rate is more than just good
That’s elite. As in “could take a significant dive and still be great” elite. Not to mention he’s a strong defensive OF and a .144 ISO and 20 stolen bases suggests more depth to his game than just OBP.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
But if a player doesn’t have a major league ht tool the bb rate doesn’t necessarily transfer that way. Brock Bond routinely put up 13% bb rates in his minor league career, but it seems pretty obvious that baseball evaluators pretty unanimously feel he has no chance of being a major leaguer. Brian Bocock has pretty consistently had bb rates above 10%. Travis Denker’s career rate is nearly 13% across all levels including years above 14%.
First and foremost you have to have the tools that allow you to compete in fastest and most explosive environment that is the majors. Big league pitchers aren’t going to walk you that often if they hav fear that you can hit their stuff.
by Roger on Dec 31, 2011 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Bond’s lack of ML experience isn’t his fault. I don’t understand why no one will give him a chance. I get that they don’t think he’ll be great, and nothing indicates he can be anything more than about average, but for a rebuilding team it makes sense to give him a shot.
Bocock showed no power but struck out like a power guy, and Parker’s walked quite a bit more than him. Parker also offers more defensive versatility (not that Bocock couldn’t have, but he would have had to learn).
Denker doesn’t make any more sense than Bond. He hit very well through his MiLB career, then hit well in a cup of coffee, then had a bad year in the Red Sox system and hasn’t played in the majors since.
Parker doesn’t look like a sure-thing starting RF. But I can see that happening, and I can easily see him being a pretty damned good utility outfielder. I think that beats everyone else on the list.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I’d say Big Chris D’s big problem is contact. He is 25 years old. He goes for 18 HRs and 27 BBs across SJ/RICH while hitting 291 in SJ and 244 in RICH. Not exactly 3 true outcomes.
That’s definitely Dominguez’ flaw, but it’s always been Oropesa’s as well. Really they have very similar backgrounds. Both caused jaws to drop with their BP sessions in the showcases before their senior year in HS and then looked totally outclassed during the showcase games themselves (causing Oropesa to fall from what people considered a potential 1st round talent to an actual 24th round selection).
Both had people dreaming of them as pitchers (Oropesa throwing around 93-94 and Dominguez clocked at 95) but preferring to hit. Both have had major contact issues. Oropesa’s not only maintained a mid-20s% K rate in college ball, he had a 30% K rate in the Cape Cod League, where he also led the league in HRs and posted an excellent walk rate.
Dominguez’ pitch recognition is awful, while with Oropesa scouts have always felt his mechanics prevent him from turning his raw power into game power (a la Nate?). Oropesa will be 22 this year so he’ll be younger than Dominguez even if he starts in the Sally, while Dominguez is three levels higher (to go with three years older) and has managed to make best prospect lists and best tools list in the pros, so he carries some prospect pedigree with him. And, as a 3B he’s currently higher up the defensive spectrum than Oropesa (currently at least).
I’m not saying it’s a slam dunk in Dominguez’ favor, but I am saying their profiles are close enough that to me it’s strange to see one of them so favored above the others.
Those are good points, and until Ricky O suits up, its a big question mark. Comparing college stats it looks like Ricky O has better plate discipline, but that’s college stats. I don’t think Oropesa will K as much as Dominguez does, he’ll hit for better average and walk more, but we’ll have to watch that play out. Also, Oropesa is getting stuck with a “Unathletic” label which might be unfair. He is a slow baserunner though.
You are wrong on Oropesa's K-rate in college
It was never in the mid 20’s, and only above 20% his freshman season
Freshman season, aged 19: 21.5% K-rate / 10.7% BB-rate
Sophomore season, aged 20: 18.8% K-rate / 12.1% BB-rate
Junior season, aged 21: 18.7% K-rate / 11.8% BB-rate
With his power, which scouts consider plus, and those walk rates, those K-rates are fairly normal. He would be a great prospect if they were below 15%, but those aren’t bad enough to expect that he will be like Parker, who had college K-rates of:
Fr., 19: 23.4% K / 10.9% BB
Soph., 20: 24.7% / 12.0% BB
Jr., 21: 19.2% / 11.3% BB
A+, 22: 25.2% / 13.0% BB
Those are significantly higher in terms of Ks, and about the same in terms of BBs. Meanwhile, Oropesa has much more power, which tends to increase walks and makes being patient more deadly. Also, there are a ton of guys with MLB K-rates > 22% who are extremely valuable hitters because they are patient and have power.
Oropesa is in that vein, and I see no reason, other than that people just say he’s a 1B here, that he couldn’t transition to LF/RF. Chris Dominguez is an order of magnitude bigger, and Ricky looks very athletic.
At the risk of picking knits, every scouting report I’ve ever seen rated Oropesa’s power as above average or well above average, not plus. I suspect if he were generally considered plus power, he’d have more than a 24th round and 3rd round draft history by his junior year in college.
Though you’re quite right about the college k rates. I was wrong on that.
I'm on vacation for a few days, so won't be able to vote.
I’m going to go for Flores right now, too. Chuckie is just a tad behind. They’re both 19, will start in the SAL and have great tools/stuff. Flores doesn’t have the big K-rate red flag, so that bumps him above Chuckie. Come to think of it, Dunnington should be above Chuckie, too. He had an uber successful teenage campaign in the SAL and CAL. He just has reliever value problems.
Anyways, I’ll miss the next few so won’t have to worry about my rankings. Flores next!
I’m not one of the people voting for Oropesa, but I have a few thoughts on your question: For one thing, Oropesa is younger coming out of school than Dominguez was.
For another, they have similar profiles, but there’s always the hope that O will be more successful than Dominguez was. Pedro Feliz and Adrian Beltre have similar strengths and weaknesses, for example, but no one would doubt that Beltre is the better player.
I’m still on my Kickham kick.
Chuckie, IMO, is still pretty overrated; Dunnington gets knocked down for me because he’s a reliever; Culberson sucks; Galindo is kind of interesting; Flores is also interesting; and, Parker might be OK near the back end of 15-20.
Oropesa has two major league tools (power and arm) but he probably sucks at hitting.
So … Kickham it is! He’s a lefty that throws 90-ish. He had a decent — if not yawn-worthy — year. He’s old-ish, but he’ll get plenty of chances. So, yeah. Kickham!
Ask me about my blog.
lefty or righty kicking?
fangraphs and cube both say Kickham is righty.
Was he being stretched out as a starter? 1.33 WHIP was average for the SJ Giants but considerably better than league average. I guess they left him in games too long, averaging just over 5 innings, then he would take the loss, going 5 and 10.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Dec 29, 2011 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
Fangraphs is messed up. He’s a bat/throw lefty guy.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592464
He played all season in Augusta.
I like the Kickham where it hurts! from his adopter personally.
Photographic evidence
http://www.azgphotography.com/Sports/Instructional-League-Jarrett/DSC0059/1026634066_4UWDK-M.jpg
Ask me about my blog.
wow, that stride is almost Timmyesque
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Dec 29, 2011 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
Giants Develop Lincecum Clone!
Burlingame Lab Denies Involvement
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
I’m with Kickham here too, but I’ll probably end up voting for whoever appears to be the anti-Chuckie vote again. I also would consider Parker here and Flores should get some consideration as well.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 29, 2011 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
I like Kickham, but was a little disappointed that he spent the entire year at Augusta. So I went Flores.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
I went Flores
Mostly because of age and upside. I like Jones, but I’m a little more reserved this year than last.
Don't think he can cut it in the bigs? Brock Bond will be the bigger man and walk walk walk away.
I’m not much of a Flores guy yet. Baggs, I’m pretty sure, mentioned him as a potential reliever down the road. Also, he’s not striking a lot of people out.
I don’t get the reliever comment. He’s started his whole career and has a decent frame and no arm trouble. Don’t know where the reliever idea came/comes from…
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
I read it as Baggs having a momentary brain cramp, because he didn’t say he thought Flores was a likely reliever down the road, he referred as a current reliever and dismissed him as one of the many strong armed relievers in the system.
Fwiw, he also said they had Heston ranked (as a reliever) higher than Dunnington.
That was a weird question and answer. Someone asked some questions about Osich and his injuries, and then Baggs’ answer was that they have Heston ranked in front of Dunnington (because of his “power sinker”). No mention of Osich in the answer. It was a total non sequitur.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
One answer and one question must have gotten left out. I really wanted to hear his answer on Osich. And, I would love to know what question caused him to compare Heston and Dunnington.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
Looks like we may be heading to a runoff between Oropesa and Jones here.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
I went with Oropesa
for the same reason I have been doing:
He’s a big, athletic guy with a great swing.
His contact issues are way overblown; for his last two years of college his K-rate was less than 19%. He also maintained a BB-rate over 10% all three years, and has a reputation of being patient.
There are many MLB hitters who K > 20% and because of patience and power are very valuable to their teams.
He has two plus tools, one of which is the most important and lacking in our system.
Scouts like him.
He is not necessarily stuck as a 1B.
Has a very good explanation why his production dropped off his senior season.
The other guy I considered was Kendry Flores, who I think might be a better prospect than Mejia.
Meanwhile, Chuckie is Oropesa with far more extreme flaws. I like Chuckie, but have a hard time putting him here. A 30% K-rate as a young guy against older competition is only acceptable if he improves it greatly next year—even 25% would be cause for joy.
I also like Galindo, but I don’t understand how he is any more of a known commodity than Oropesa. He’s 21 and has two years or data pre-A ball.
His contact issues are way overblown; for his last two years of college his K-rate was less than 19%. He also maintained a BB-rate over 10% all three years, and has a reputation of being patient.
There are many MLB hitters who K > 20% and because of patience and power are very valuable to their teams.
19% is a lot for a college player though. Roger Kieschnick’s K rates in college were 16-17% and he came out with a scouting reputation for a hole in his swing that would kill in him the pros. His K rate in the pros have been 22-25%, and there seems little hope that his contact problems won’t undermine his other considerable skills and torpedo his chances to play in the big leagues.
Well, as Roger said above, I don’t think you can reasonably compare people who strike out 20 percent of the time in the majors to people who strike out 20 percent of the time in college. You’d have to look at how much those major leaguers struck out back when they were in college.
I think voting for Oropesa here is reasonable, though you’re a bit more gung-ho about it than I would be.
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