Matt Cain: The Last Hope of the Offseason

The Mayor was made to leave the game at Candlestick early and And his Quote was “I think the Giants might win one this time!”

The motorcade was stopped at the Drawbridge right outside where A T and T is built. Then a Law Rocket was used to blow up the escort and one of the first “Stun Guns” was used to subdue the “Fat Boy” mayor.

you can’t win a championship if you don’t make the playoffs

Were the ‘88-’90 A’s a disappointment because they only won one, earthquake-delayed World Series?

Are the ‘08-’11 Phillies a disappointment because they’ve only won one World Series?

Will the Giants of this era be seen as a disappointment if 2010 is their only World Series win/appearance?

I understand the “squandered pitching” argument and generally feel the same way myself. But sometimes all of us (myself very much included) end up sounding really spoiled, 13 months on from the parade down Market Street.

But that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t maximize our chances. Not doing so is squandering, from my perspective.

I wouldn’t assume that leak came from the Giants. (Remember when everyone thought the government was leaking Bonds’ info and it was actually a defense attorney?)

In this case, I could see Cain’s agent leaking the elbow scan to show that the Giants played hardball, so the team shouldn’t get bent out of shape if Cain does the same to them.

I’m the most risk averse guy ever, but athletes probably think differently than we do. They have a short time to earn a living and after that it’s all gone — or mostly gone.

Weaver did the exact same thing and signed with the Angels for less money.

It’s really up to the player.

JRPhillips:

I cannot tell whether you’re agreeing or disagreeing with my original thesis. But I’m pretty sure we’re not agreeing on much. And we definitely don’t agree with respect to your attempt to offer up Grady Sizemore as an example of why Cain might be too risk averse to play out his contract if the Giants don’t make him an offer he likes. Aside from the fact that both play ML baseball, Cain & Sizemore aren’t even remotely similar situations. Unless you were merely arguing that, hey, injuries can happen to anyone . . . But if you were suggesting that Cain will be influenced to sign below value due to concern that he’ll break down like Sizemore, I would respectfully disagree.

To restate, here are the two principle points I was trying to make. I’ve discussed the first point already at length, so most of this post will expand on the second point.

1) The Giants will be making a strategic error if they approach negotiations with the expectation of signing Cain for a “hometown discount.”

2) Based on Cain’s six-year track record of pitching injury-free, it is conceivable (meaning possible) that Cain would be comfortable with the risk of foregoing an extension, playing out his final year under contract, and cashing in on the Big FA $$.

I concede that there are real risks associated with foregoing an extension. But these risks need to viewed in their proper context. The two principle risks of foregoing an extensions are: 1) going down to an injury that negates his FA value (or if career-ending, extinguishes his FA value altogether); and 2) experiencing a significant drop in performance (which would likewise diminish his FA value in rough proportion to the magnitude of the drop in performance). Addressing Cain’s risk of injury first, the proper context for evaluating the magnitude of this risk involves looking at two factors: 1) Cain’s health/injury history; and 2) Cain’s mechanics.

[A third source of injury, though one that’s not easily quantified (because it occurs more or less randomly) is the likelihood of Cain going down to an injury caused by some external factor. Examples of this sort of random injury might include being hit in the melon by a batted ball; or any other event that results in a broken bone or serious joint/soft-tissue injury (e.g., injury to the any part of his right arm from finger tip to shoulder; or any of his foundational parts involved in windup & delivery, like legs, back, obliques, etc.). Since we’re talking about a type of risk that can’t be reliably predicted using factors unique to Cain, I leave this out of my discussion. But yes, random things happen, and if Cain felt that the benefit of having an extension in place outweighed the benefit of accepting an unknowable risk of random injury for larger dollars, then surely Cain would opt for the security of a deal rather than take the chance. Given the potential & massive upside value of taking a chance on FA, I would take the risk. But I’m not Cain so I have no idea how he’ll evaluate this element of risk]

Returning to the point I was making a paragraph ago, the two types of risk that can be evaluated outside a vacuum are, the risk of injury involving mechanics, durability, and overall physiology (i.e., a mechanical breakdown, as opposed to an injury caused on the playing field or elsewhere); and the risk of significantly reduced performance/productivity, such that it would negate the value of being a FA. Though there’s no way to predict with absolute certainty how Cain will hold up physically, an examination of Cain’s performance & injury history (or in his case, lack of injury history) can be instructive. With respect to Cain’s historic performance & injury(free)-history, none of the publicly available information suggests cause for concern. Cain’s work-horse performance, which he’s maintained for the entirety of his time in a Giants uniform, suggests that he is durable, mechanically sound and physiologically healthy. While elbow and/or shoulder breakdowns are always possible, nothing in Cain’s history suggests that any such breakdown is imminent. To the contrary, Cain’s record is suggestive of a healthy, solid pitcher with good mechanics. Cain has pitched at least 190 innings in every full season he’s been with the Giants. To be precise, Cain has logged innings at the following rate (I’ve dropped the fractional innings for simplicity):

2006: 190 IP
2007: 200 IP
2008: 217 IP
2009: 217 IP
2010: 223 IP
(+ 21 IP in postseason, w/ this insane line: 1-0; 13H, 7BB; 13K & 0.00ERA)
2011: 221 IP

Based on the length of time that Cain has carried a heavy workload (6 years), and based on Cain’s consistent performance, and indeed improvement, over this time, it would be reasonable to conclude that, given Cain’s relative youth, the likelihood of a physical/structural breakdown within the next year is, if not negligible, at least very low. I’m sure much more can be said on the subject of Cain’s mechanics, including judgments about whether his pitching motion is consistent with continued health; or conversely, whether his motion is problematic & likely to put him on a Tommy-John-Surgeon’s table. But I claim no particular expertise in this subject, so don’t feel qualified to offer much of an opinion on this. All I can say about Cain’s mechanics is that: 1) to the uneducated & amateur eye of this lifelong baseball fan, Cain’s pitching motion looks compact & efficient to me (as opposed to violent, jerky, etc.), and he appears to have a very solid base to pitch from (trunk & legs), and based on his motion, it looks like he generates most of his power using all of his body, rather than merely whipping his arm (side note: am I the only person who looks at Craig Kimbrel and thinks his motion is far too violent, and that it won’t be long before he’s on the surgeon’s table?); and 2) the only other point I can offer about Cain’s mechanics is an indirect one. Having pitched 1,268 innings over the past six seasons, and having done so injury free, I’m inclined to think that if his mechanics were a problem, we would already know it, as his arm/shoulder/elbow would have blown up under that workload. Not only has he failed to blow up, he’s actually gotten better. Pitchers come along all the time who perform well for a year or two and then blow up. But off the top of my head, I can’t think of a recent pitcher who tossed 6 solid years with a heavy but not overwhelming workload each year, and then blew up. If a pitcher is mechanically or structurally unsound, you usually see it within his first two or three years. So I’m not worried about this.

As to the second factor that can be evaluated to judge Cain’s risk, i.e., a significant drop in performance, I have little to add beyond what I’ve already written. Based on Cain’s age & performance history, I am aware of no reasons to anticipate a backward slide in his productivity in the absence of injury. If Cain happened to be 34 years old instead of 27, I’d be far more hesitant to predict continued performance at the same level or better. But Cain is 27, and as I understand it, baseball players (both pitchers & position players) generally see their most productive years between ages 27 or 28 and 32. Again, generally speaking, players younger than 27 are still advancing up the productivity scale; once they reach their late twenties, players enter a period of peak productivity; and somewhere around 33 or 34 players exit their peak productivity stage, and begin to decline in productivity (sometimes slowly, sometimes overnight). I’m sure someone else on this board can speak more intelligently on this topic, so I’ll leave it to others to clarify or contradict this point. But in a nutshell, I don’t see age as having a negative impact on and evaluation of Cain’s likely productivity in 2012.

In any event, my point was not to say that Cain WILL forego an extension and take on the risk of getting zero if he goes down to catastrophic injury. My point was merely that, given his history, both health-wise & performance/productivity-wise, the Giants would be smart to bear in mind that he might very well be willing to take this chance. What’s the point of considering this? Well, if you’re the Giants, the point is this: before entering into negotiations with Cain, it would be wise to set aside all preconceived notions about Cain’s willingness to sign for a hometown discount, along with any assumptions that Cain wouldn’t dare forego an extension and gamble on himself, his proven ability, his solid injury-free history, and make a run at FA. Going into negotiations with a mindset that has already factored in these assumptions (all of which are as yet unproven, and may be flatly wrong) may lead to contract offers that are consciously (or unconsciously) discounted based on possibly flawed assumptions regarding Cain’s thought-process, including his order of priorities, and his comfort or discomfortable when it comes to risk. The Giants’ FO has already given Cain cause to be resentful (if he’s the type of person who might harbor resentment), when they subtracted a year from his last contract at the 11th hour. Perhaps he’s not as egotistical or sensitive as some ballplayers are. But if he is (and prudence dictates that we assume he is), then if the Giants hope to extract his signature on an extension, it would be wise for them not to inadvertently give him further cause to resent the Giants (like, for example, by offering him an extension substantially below market value, based on some misguided notion that he’ll sign for a hometown discount, or that he’ll be too scared to risk playing out his contract). And since the Giants have made clear that all the money they have left is for Cain & Lincecum, they damn well better get one or both. Because they’ve pretty much let everyone we might have wanted get away, so there aren’t many options left if Cain demurs. [BTW, brilliant negotiating tactic Giants! Telegraph exactly how much money you have to spend, make clear that you’re determined to sign your target, wait for all the other options for spending your money are gone, then wait a little longer, and finally, at the very last hour sit down and try to negotiate a deal with a player whose FA clock is ticking down. This is a textbook example of how to give away all your leverage in a negotiation.]

Sure, that stuff probably matters. But it’s how much it matters. And I’m guessing it matters much, much less than money.

•Manager that has their back and doesn’t rip them in public

I’m not sure Belt would agree with this one.

Don’t most players say, “It’s been great playing for Team X. Nothing against Team Y, but Team X is great!” I think it’s hard to judge what a player REALLY thinks of an organization and what is important to them. And I agree that all the points you made are positives for players coming/staying and playing in San Francisco.

I’m with him on that. It’s like, if you want to sign me for my free agency years, sign me for my free agency years.

Only one of them has lent their name to the act of pitching excellently and still getting a loss though.

then i think about the cy young bragging about beating lincecum and get mad all over again.

It was, while it lasted.

Hey…it’s what Beltran said.

I really think that Beltran does not want to carry the load anymore. He did that in New York and could never live up to the expectations/contract.

Sabean couldn’t sign good players to improve the lineup because Bizarro Sabean kept signing bad players.

Though not at the same level, yes

Thinking of CJ when comparing Hamels to Cain.

Handsome overload.

I didn’t realize Lindsay Lohan would fit in there.

Beats all the off season whinging going on right now.

oh, good. Usually the default is “yeah, he sucked after the Giants got him” so I wasn’t sure.