Community Prospect List #11
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 12:19 PM PST
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PrintAdrianza wins the 10th spot easily. Here is the list for #11. I'm going to leave this poll open until tomorrow, and if we have a clear winner (I suspect we will) then I'll put up the post for the #12 spot. That poll will remain open until Monday night, the 26th, as we want to let everyone spend Christmas weekend doing something other than arguing about prospects. I know, I know, who wants to spend time with their families? But I bow to the will of the people.
This post will be open until 12PM PST tomorrow, December 22nd.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
10. Ehire Adrianza
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Adalberto Mejia
Josh Osich
If you want to see any other names on this list, say so in the comments and I'll add them to the list. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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You beat me to it. The kid dominated the Cal at a very young age and his minor league career stats are only a tad behind Romo’s.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
More than a tad I’d say. Romo had a 7/1 k/bb ratio in the Cal league with a 1.51 FIP. Romo struck out 106 of the 247 batters he faced that year in the Cal league (Dunnington K’d 31 of 90). Romo bb’d 15 in the Cal league to Dunnington’s 10, but Romo pitched 3x more innings. It was an incredible performance.
Not putting him in the top twenty, I hope.
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by EricW on Dec 21, 2011 11:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d disagree. AnVil is a gigantic question mark, but he’s also only 3 years removed from being in BA top 50. He was our best prospect in 2008, #3 in 2007/9.
I’d say he has to come into the conversation starting around #15. Huge question mark for sure. The power upside though…
I think he’s a guy who should be talked about in 25-30 range but not really before that. Two years lost development time is huge where he was. I don’t think this kid is Josh Hamilton.
Not to mention that we still don’t know if he has a visa to play in the USA. I think people that are assuming that the DHS will automatically issue him a visa just because the Giants and MLB have him back on the active list are not familiar with past DHS decisions. There’s no rule that states the DHS has to give him a visa just because he wasn’t tried for the shooting incident. If they come t the conclusion that he bought his way out of a manslaughter/murder trial then they can easily deny him entry to the USA – making him a non-prospect.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Three years....
…IS a prospect lifetime for a BA Top 50 prospect. By then, most are in the majors or flunked out.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Dec 22, 2011 8:09 AM PST up reply actions
Except he was never that good before his three year layoff.
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I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Basically
he was a guy who needed a lot more experience to unlock his tools. Three years off is not going to get him there. I wouldn’t rank him higher than 30.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
His Cal League year was kinda interesting. He was within spitting distance of being a league average hitter (by about 50 points) while being nearly four years younger than the league average hitter. That’s kind of impressive.
But you’re right, a large portion of his prospectdom was based on youth-to-league.
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If Villalona is able to play, and starts the season in San Jose, he will still be younger than average for the league.
Not significantly so, but it definitely reminds you how crazy young he was in his first go ’round.
by BestHyperboleEver on Dec 22, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
His claim-to-fame (besides the bonus) was his last 2 months in Augusta during the 2008 season. If memory serves, he hit about 12 of his 17 HRs, hit around .300, and cut down on his K’s during July and August of 2008 in the Sally – and he didn’t turn 18 until August 13th of that year.
His Cal League performace in 2009 was very disappointing after that finish in Augusta.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I thought he got better in the 2nd half at SJ too
Which would make sense for a really young kid being outmatched then getting better as the season wore on.
That’s why we like young guys after all. They aren’t maxed out.
I’m really intrigued by Villalona. My gut feels good about him; I think he has a chance. Baseball loves extreme redemption stories.
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:02 AM PST up reply actions
No, he never played in the 2nd half at SJ. He sustained a season ending injury somewhere in June I believe. It was that injury in fact, which allowed him to be home getting into horrible trouble instead of in SJ the night they were clinching their league title.
Start of July right before the futures game, which he would have played in, quad strain.
He lost 40 lbs playing in 2008, got into game shape only to come back the same in 2009. MLB needs to add diet education to their academies, but its a hard scramble life in the DR.
No idea what will happen, but if he rises like Lazarus… That will be a great story. He’s 21 now, and he’s behind the eight ball.
He was better than Joseph in Augusta and a year younger.
by BestHyperboleEver on Dec 22, 2011 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
He was also better in the Cal League (and still a year younger) if one were to compare their first 70 or so games at the level. Though his BB% and K% were worse.
by BestHyperboleEver on Dec 22, 2011 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
All of which is, of course, sadly moot at this point.
by BestHyperboleEver on Dec 22, 2011 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
Went Osich here
Probably will go Blackburn next.
Osich at 11 is the one that I think we’ll all look back on at this time next year and go, what were we thinking?
That would be one of the best possible outcomes for our system
If the Osich gamble pays off and he makes everyone look dumb for having him so low.
What if he spends the summer hanging out in quasi-DL twilight with Jorge Bucardo and we all feel dumb for having him so high?
Do most people think twice about old prospect ratings other than when using them to justify doing new ones?
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Dec 22, 2011 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
Roger, you're not most people.
And I mean that as a compliment.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Dec 22, 2011 8:52 PM PST up reply actions
Voting for Osich, I guess. He might be awesome, or he might be broken. Yay!
Someone tell me something about Blackburn, is he really a top 20 guy?
Ask me about my blog.
His Arizona stats are a dead ringer for Kyle Nicholson’s a few years ago, except he’s 75 years younger. FACT.
Apparently he throws 90, so there might be something there.
Exactly
He was a high school draft pick and easily the best pitcher in the AZL stats-wise. He’s young, has projection, and already throws a pretty good 91-93 power sinker plus 3 other pitches for strikes. He also has ridiculously good control, and he’s 18.
He was also considered the best below or at slot pick after the 10th round, and had one of the best pro debuts for a prep player, according to BA.
He came out of nowhere, dominated, and the scouts like him = good prospect.
What draft pick was he again (I realize I’m being lazy and I could just look that up on BA)? Admittedly, I don’t know much about him, but I have a hard time with caring about AZ stats.
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16th round
I’m not really sure why he fell that far though, to be honest.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
He’s probably going to have to add velocity to be a serious prospect, but at his age it’s not out of the question. Right now he seems more of a polished youngster. Four pitches he can command. Don’t know if any look to be a plus at this point or if they’re average across the board (which is itself a pretty good thing for a 19 year old).
I think that scouts overlooked Blackburn because when they went to Oklahoma in the year before the 2011 draft they were blown away by Archie Bradley’s, Dylan Bundy’s and Michael Fulmer’s awesome velocity, intriguing secondary pitches and obvious upside. In comparison, Blackburn was kind of a geeky, dumpy-looking kid without the elite heat. In retrospective, Blackburn outpitched 2 of those guys in head-to-head competition in his final year of amateur ball, and he had great command and control of all the pitches that he had in his arsenal. Most impressive to me was how he stepped in from day 1 in the AZL and had the mental maturity to dominate the older players from day one. By the end of the year, he was clearly the best starting pitcher in the league (not to say the best starting pitcher prospect).
One other thing to like about him is that he should have some upside to his stuff if he’s able to tighten up his physical form.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
These are good points, but I think we have to be careful about seeing what we want to see in these reports. Blackburn was probably pretty well scouted because of the prominence of other OK prospects.
So it might be that everyone was wrong, but I’d withhold judgment for now. His AZL performance is a nice start, certainly.
by Dan from NM on Dec 21, 2011 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No doubt, we don’t want to put too high of expectations on the kid (I would argue that placing him in the #12 or 13 spot on our list isn’t too high due to the lack of elite talent in the system). I was just trying to answer the question of why he fell to the 16th round. Remember that this year’s draft had more high school pithchers with mid-90s velo than most scouts could ever remember. Scouts and teams fall in love with that type of velo, and almost universally discount command and control in HS pitchers that don’t have that velo.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
With good reason though. A lot of the time they turn into Clayton Tanner. Or for that matter Tim Alderson who was a command and control guy that the scouts did like (because they thought with his tall frame he’d add velocity).
by Roger on Dec 21, 2011 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s not like the success rate of HS pitchers that threw mid-90s is all that much better.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Generally speaking, no. The 2 unintentional BB in 33 IP is an eye popper though, and he’ll be a young 19 year old heading into his first full season. Plus he was ranked the 3rd best prospect in the league by BA.
Given the paucity of the system I don’t see how he could be lower than 15.
his control and groundball rates are elite
all he needs is for his FB and other pitches to be major league average in terms of velocity and stuff, and he will be a pro pitcher.
Of course, if he gets his sinker to sit at 93+ and can still locate it for groundball-generating strikes, he COULD become a frontline guy.
That sort of control that he has shown is phenomenal; that he controls all four pitches is even more phenomenal; that his bread-and-butter is a 91-93 power sinker that gets a lot of GBs and could become faster…makes him a good prospect with the potential to be a phenomenal prospect.
Say what you will about the AZL. This kid doesn’t walk people. When guys make contact, it tends to go to the ground. Without injury, he already looks like he has as great of a floor you could ask for with a kid that just turned 19.
Okay, I admit it. I’m really excited about him.
Yeah, I meant to mention that his GB rate was off the charts. Though I think I mentioned earlier in the year that the more I look at GB rates in the lower levels the more it looks as though everybody’s a GB pitcher, because of quality of the hitters overall is poor enough to exaggerate their GB tendencies.
That said, Blackburn posted 5:1 go/ao in the AZL.
How many innings does it take for GB%, BB%, K%, etc. to stabilize for a pitcher?
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
Some of the stats guys can probably give a figure on that. They’re supposed to stabilize quite quickly, and generally they’re the three most important numbers to look at with young pitchers, but I think you have to build in a certain (and fairly significant) amount of disintegration of the walk rate from A ball and down, because bad (and weak) hitters are responsible for lot of it (maybe as much as 30% if I had to take a stab at it?)
I just dismissed Nicholson out of hand that year though, because he was about 43 years old. It seemed an outright omission that the org didn’t see much future with him to leave him in AZL all that summer.
And the point is worth repeating: Blackburn pitched in the AZL a full 5 years younger than Nicholson. And put up a 5.0 go/ao ratio. He pretty much got every batter he faced to strike out or ground out.
That’s quite odd. I get the 5 from own personal spreadsheet that I keep during the season, but I got the numbers from MiLB’s box scores so I don’t know why their final number is so strange.
And really when you look at the game by game log, they clearly have the games where he had 7:1 and 11:1 ratios which go a long way toward getting us to the final tally of 49:11.
Not to sound cocky, but I’m going to say that my numbers are accurate and their site is glitching on it.
Yeah, I just went back and looked at the box scores on MiLB’s site. My numbers are right. 49:11 go/ao in the regular season. And 5 of those 11 flyouts came in one game interestingly enough.
However, that’s just the regular season games. In his playoff appearance it was 8:4, which if you added that in (and why shouldn’t we) reduces the final tally to 3.8.
There used to be a post at the now defunct “Statistically Speaking” that tracked all the major break even points for various skills. I can’t find it quickly though, and I don’t feel like calculating them just at the moment.
Going from memory, BB% and K% stabilized after about 150 batters faced and GB% was about twice that. Control, bat missing ability and batted ball profile are pretty exhaustive list of important skill-based resuots for pitchers.
Mark DeRosa , he had his moments.
Duvall
I want to believe. I know he’s a little old for the Sally and only has one year of data, but 22 isn’t ridiculous, he hit for power, average, and OBP, and I think the defense will improve or he’ll get moved somewhere more suitable. The possibility of an Uggla-type manning second is very nice.
Osich and Mejia were the two I stared at for awhile, but neither of them has pitched in US pro ball. Osich’s injury issues and the sketchiness of DSL stats further complicates the problem. Duvall’s had strong performance in the minors and that matters more than Osich’s scouting reports right now.
I feel like Parker is going to get overlooked though – he really didn’t have a bad season and I get the feeling people think he did. Either cutting down his K rate or adding some power would make him an OBP machine with average or power that plays a strong outfield. He doesn’t have to make major adjustments to put up some nice stat lines.
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I was a little higher on Duvall before the Baggs chat on BA. I’ve got him around #13-14 on my list.
Parker seems like he’s in the 15-20 range for me. He strikes out a bunch and I tried to find comparisons for him a couple of months ago and it was hard; Ben Grieve was probably the closest I could find in my (limited) search.
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It's not easy to hit in Augusta, even if a guy is a college player
The thing is that now we have to expect him to hit in the Cal, because it’s easier. Remember the difference in Adrianza’s Sally/Cal stat lines?
Nonetheless, a 140 wRC+ over a full season in a difficult hitting environment is pretty amazing.
Especially if he goes back to playing 2B—and in my last post I made a Keppinger comp, which was meant to be exclusively related only to defense. 3B doesn’t seem like his best position because #1: Panda, and if Panda moves, Buster will probably become a 3B; and #2: Apparently Duvall’s problem came with airmailing a lot of throws to 1B
I think Kent and Uggla are the best comps for Duvall. Both were not top prospects, and proved themselves a slightly older age. The thing is that Duvall’s first full season was as good or better than either of theirs.
I’m still not sure I can rate Duvall above Blackburn, or even Osich. Or even Oropesa.
I’m actually very high on Oropesa. He had a terrible year last year, but he was still quite good. He has lots of power. And good patience. And his contact issues weren’t that big. His career college K-% is around 18 or 19—same range as Andrew Susac, and a good 5-7% less than Jarrett Parker.
And given his power and patience, a K-rate around 20% through his minor league career is pretty acceptable. There’s of course a possibility that he beats that.
If I can tweak your verbiage: the Cal is a more offensive environment, but I’m not entirely sure it’s accurate to say that it’s easier to hit there, as in theory every move up the ladder should bring hitters into contact with a better overall level of pitching competition.
i tend to jumble the words in my posts...
or the meaning of them.
I meant to say that if he hits really well in the cal, it won’t do too much to make us (okay, maybe me cuz I love him) believers: thats what we should expect from him if he really does have any shot of making the bigs.
That’s jumbled too; I meant to say:
His real test, as for every Giants hitting prospect, will be the EL. Until he shows that he can hit there, and do it for power, nobody will really believe in him. If he does great in the Cal League, the performance will be dismissed as “College Hitter in the Cal League.”
umm...
a 140 wRC+ over a full season in a difficult hitting environment is pretty amazing.
wRC+ is relative to league average. Why is it anymore amazing in a league that suppresses hitting rather than a league that enhances it? It’d be 40% above league average in either case. Only in the latter case, the rate numbers would look astronomical.
let me explain
in the difficult hitting environments of the sally, and particularly the lack of HRs, the deviation from the mean is smaller, since most tend to do bad. doing exceptionally well—especially when his main asset is power (in addition to patience)—means a little more than in the cal league where power/strikeout guys like Michael Choice/Chris Carter, etc put up ridiculous wRC+ that they have trouble replicating in other leagues.
Even then, it is more impressive in a league that suppresses hitting because it means he did well in a league that suppresses hitting. In leagues like the Cal/PCL that enhance hitting, lots of guys put up huge wRC+ numbers that are totally unrealistic to what to expect in the future because power plays up in many of the parks, while in other leagues (and particularly the MLB), those HRs that make for the astronomical wRC+ become outs.
I’m a big fan of Parker, having watched him quite a bit this last season. I agree with you, however, that people think he had a bad season. Maybe the expectations are too high?
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
I worry about his ability to make contact. I like the approach, but he didn’t hit for power while striking out like a power hitter. The defense should also play, but he seems like a weird collection of skills for a player.
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Though, the more I think about him, the more I think I might have let him drop too far. He’s probably near #15 or so for me.
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Obviously, part of that is the overall weakness of the system. I agree with the discussion below of him being a 4th/5th OF, but I don’t think he’s a total bust, either.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
Really?
I’m just going to cut and paste Evan’s comment from below:
Parker’s K rates by month:
23%
24%
21%
21%
31%
52%
Granted that last month is a microsample, but still … that’s uuuuuuuuugly.
by Evan on Dec 21, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
That doesn’t seem like a late season turn on to me, though I don’t know offhand what was happening to the balls he did put in play in that August/Sept. period.
OK, calm down now. I misspoke, said late season instead of post season. He had 2 HRs in his last 10 days of play to go along with those 18Ks, I can’t find his postseason stats but he went on a tear. Not sure if this was his final stats or not, but he hit 4HRs, .462BA up to the elimination game. Did anybody go to these games?
Just to clarify...
I was at the game where he hit 2 homers (Tommy Joseph also did in that game), but that wasn’t where my earlier points came from.
@legaleagle88
Giants Baseball: Why Not?
I thought Nate Schierholtz was cool before it was cool to think Nate Schierholtz was cool.
Was looking at Osich or Blackburn. I’ll go with the swarm, Osich it is.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
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Fight the current!
Seriously though, although I voted Blackburn here, I’d have Osich next anyway. As long as all of you agree to vote Clayton next, I can’t be too disappointed.
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
Possible to add Oropesa?
I actually changed my opinion on most everything. I want him at #11.
If I can’t vote for him here, then….
1. He was a much better hitter in college than Parker was
2. He didn’t get a bat in his size until the end of the 2011 NCAA season, and this came after a coach of his tweaked his swing. He was a consensus 1st round/Supp guy before the season, and after a terrible season fell to the 3rd round. He was still good, too.
3. His ISOs in college and Runs created were pretty spectacular
4. He’s got a very lean athletic frame, and could definitely handle the outfield. He’s only 6’2 so he’s not quite a galoot either
5. Crazy awesome bat speed + power; 51% XBH% in his sophomore season. Also had a 7.4% HR% in his sophomore season, 6.1% in his freshman year. That’s really good for college; Susac showed a lot of power this past year before his injury, but his HR% was around 3.
6. He had basically the same k-rates in college as Susac; 19%. Parker was around 24% for most of his college career (and 25% in the Cal league)
7. College BB-rate just under 12% is pretty elite and shows a great batting eye; with power, this is really valuable.
And finally, college hitters tend to be the safest prospects. Oropesa was a really good one of those. His swing is lovely. I think he will destroy the Cal league next year and we will all be trying to temper our excitement because it is the Cal. I hope they try him at 3B or in LF though and keep him off 1B unless it is absolutely necessary.
Well, he should be a much better hitter than Parker (and Susac) as they both play premium defensive positions while Oropesa’s a 1B. And that said, it’s hard for me to get past the fact that his power completely disappeared last year with the switch to the new bats. He went from 20 HR to 18 XBH, while still K’ing quite a bit. That senior year was plum ugly.
That’s the biggest thing for me. The new bats are supposed to be a lot closer to wood bats, and his power was not elite.
In the wood bat Cape Cod League, in two seasons he hit .171/.277/.268 and .222/.337/.392.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 1:54 PM PST up reply actions
One thing to note on Oropesa and the bat front. There was a story circulating back in May that Oropesa didn’t get the specific size and shape of the new BBCOR bat that he preferred until 6-8 weeks into the college season. Be that as it may, I don’t think that Oropesa will have any problem hitting for power with wood bats. He’s very strong and generates plenty of bat-speed with his swing. His issue will be making consistent enough solid contact for his power to come into play.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I tend to forgive that as a bad season
Great prospects and great hitters have them. Susac had a great season until he got hurt, so we were able to draft him.
DrB has gone on in detail about Ricky having his season really fucked up for him. First of all, I agree that consistency is pretty important for baseball players. Switching to new bats, even if they are deadened, is a tough adjustment some handled better than others.
Ricky never really got to adjust. Before the season, his coaches changed his swing pretty significantly, trying to make it a level line drive swing instead of an uppercut swing. This new swing was terrible; Oropesa got better when he switched back.
He also had to play around with a couple different bats that weren’t the right size. The size bat that he’d used since highschool wasn’t available as a BBCore bat until towards the end of the season. So in addition to a pretty significantly altered swing at some coaches order, he was having to learn a new swing with a completely different bat.
And he still hit .322. He still struck out about as much as he always had (whereas if everything was gravy for him all season, it should have gone down), and he still had great plate discipline with a 11.8% K-rate (18.7% K-rate).
Of course, if he can only play 1B going forward, that sets a high bar for his bat. But like I said, he looks like a great athlete, he isn’t super lanky, he isn’t fat, his big lean and strong.
And I think he has a great swing. I think he will be our best hitter from that draft class.
He is a good athlete, with plenty of fost-twitch muscle fiber – especially for a 1st baseman. He has a plus arm and above-average speed. The tools are there for him to become an above-average defensive 1B, but he needs to focus on the task. One knock on him is that he was way too enamored with being the HR-hitting star and not dedicated enough to doing all of the mundane little things needed to be a true superstar.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Oropesa hit .331/.412/.596 in college; Parker hit 326/.423/.562. Tossup.
Parker was drafted a round earlier.
Parker has a huge red flag in his stats, in that he strikes out way, way, way too much. But Oropesa has the same contact problems.
Parker’s the more valuable fielder, probably much more valuable.
The thing about not getting the right bat … I dunno. People are always finding reasons why a favored player had a poor season. Sometimes the reasons are legit, sometimes they’re not.
Mind you, I’d rank both these guys behind the mystery arms like Blackburn and Mejia, but I can’t see putting Oropesa ahead of Parker until he does some mashing in the pros.
The thing about not getting the right bat … I dunno. People are always finding reasons why a favored player had a poor season. Sometimes the reasons are legit, sometimes they’re not.
The devil you know versus the devil you don’t know. I don’t know what to make of Parker. I like parts of his game (patience, fielding, baserunning), but his strikeout totals are a huge problem. He could get better, I guess, but it seems unlikely.
Oropesa is supposed to have more power, whatever that means. I don’t know if it’s a pre-game power versus game-time power, but he physically looks like a guy that should hit a few HR. I think Baggs said he was this year’s Chris Dominguez, which is damning for a few different reasons. However, he does have two legit tools in his power and arm. I think right now I’ve got him around #15 on my list and Parker somewhere between 15-20; Parker really fell a lot for me this season.
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You know Evan I was thinking of you the other day. I remember you sent me a link once with a study that showed that college 1B were one of the safest bets in the draft, which popped into my head because I was looking at that 2005 draft which has been such a gold mine of prospects, but the one part of it that really hasn’t panned out is all those college 1B who went in the first round: Alonso, Smoak, Wallace, Cooper, Davis, Dykstra have generally speaking been a group of relative fail. If I could throw Alvarez in with them it looks even worse.
I was noticing that too. It maybe that that study didn’t pay sufficient respect to the problems of sample size. “College first basemen selected in the first round” is going to be a small group even if you’re studying 15 or 20 years.
And selection bias, I suppose. Given that teams prefer not to draft true 1B out of college with high picks, the scouts that want them really have to be able to make a case for the bat. The burden of the selection is higher than some other types of players so a team really has to cross-check the bejesus out a 1B before they pull the trigger. (which of course, didn’t help the teams that took Allen Dykstra and David Cooper, etc.
He’ll be on the #12 poll.
Personally, I’m not high on Oropesa at all. Oropesa is a one tool player, and that’s it. He won’t hit for a ton of power, and I don’t think he’ll be anything better than average at plate discipline. He’s below-average defensively, and one thing that really scares me is the way his power cratered after moving to the new BBCOR bats. The new bats are a better measure of wood-bat power than the old bats used to be, and he lost nearly 200 points of ISO. I see him as a Mitch Moreland type.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
That third sentence should say "he won’t hit for a ton of powera high average
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
*Nitpick
Ricky Oropesa also has a very strong arm so he’s a 2 tool player.
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 21, 2011 1:58 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough, I had forgotten that he also pitched in college.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
Since he's a 1B his arm probably won't be used too often though
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 21, 2011 2:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
He's not necessarily a 1B
He played 1B and 3B in college, and will probably be tried at 3B first in the majors. I do think that it would be best just to take advantage of his athleticism and good speed and put him in RF or LF. His bat profiles better as a corner type than a 1B, and 3B is a surprisingly difficult position to field well, even with a plus arm.
Plus, we have Panda.
got me
meant to say they’ll try him at 3B first in his pro career
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:05 AM PST up reply actions
He hit for a really high average all through college.
Even in his terrible 2011 season, he still hit .322.
I think he could hit .280 in the pros with a .400 OBP. His career college BB-rate is nearly 12%. Plate discipline, pitch recognition, and using count leverage make power play up considerably. Also, having a 12% BB-rate makes his K-rate more likely to be high as well since he is more likely to go deep into the count.
I don’t think one bad season, at cause of having his swing fucked with and not getting bats in the size he’d used for years, is enough to justify why he wouldn’t have hit for as much power as he should have. And this is verifiable—this is info from a guy who works with Ricky’s mom. These things happened.
I believe he has talent, power, plate discipline, and he’s motivated to prove people wrong. He’s also a fantastic athlete and a good size. I see him as a corner OF bat.
And just watch some clips of his swing. It is fast.
Oh
And b/c of his bat speed, the kid can hit elite velocity. Like Gerrit Cole elite velocity.
He’s a great prospect who everybody is down on b/c he had a mediocre season. Having some coach mess with your swing can do that.
But hitting .322 is pretty bad in college (that’s about Brandon Crawford’s career BA at UCLA). I don’t think he was ever a great prospect even before his senior year. He was always going to be a hit and miss one tool prospect, and then he had a very bad senior year.
You mean junior season.
Different bats. Hitting .322 with the new BBCOR bats was not like hitting .332 with the old bats.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’s still just college. He’s a power guy with holes in his swing who didn’t show any power in his final year and is stuck at 1B. I can easily see him duplicating Jarrett Parker’s 2011, only be a 1B. And that’s not that great a prospect in my mind.
How do you know he's stuck at 1B?
This is where some of the difference is. I don’t see Oropesa as a 1B and nothing else. He isn’t built like Prince Fielder, or Ben Thomas, or even Brandon Belt. He is 6’2, lean, and surprisingly fleet of foot. He could handle LF or RF without issue.
AND!!!
Jarret Parker had college K-rates of 24%—-Ricky’s were around 18%. That is an enormous difference! That is the same! Jarret Parker had a K-rate 33% higher than Oropesa’s!
Also, Oropesa has much more power to go along with equally good plate discipline. Coming out of college, Oropesa is a much better prospect in my eyes from a purely hitting standpoint. And while Parker plays CF, he is 6’4, which makes for a big CF, and I ultimately think he will be in a corner. I see Oropesa playing in a corner as well.
I’m not a huge fan of Oropesa either – I see many of the same issues as you and I only had him at #20 on my list. My only point was that I think you’re degrading way too much how good hitting .322 was for a college player during the 2011 season. The new BBCOR bats severely depressed power and BA in 2011.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I'll admit
I changed everything I thought about Oropesa when you posted those videos of him.
I’m not a scout, but I like to watch a lot of video of hitters, swings, etc.
And Oropesa’s swing looked great to me. The power, which seemed mostly of the bat speed kind, was obvious.
I also liked the way he was built. He was very learn and athletic looking; he didn’t look the slugger-type, although his frame was large.
It might be my personal bias, but seeing his frame and seeing him run, I thought he was athletic enough to play the outfield.
And I’m rooting for him now because I honestly think he’s a safer bet than almost everybody coming after him, and his upside isn’t bad either. Power corner outfield bat would be pretty nice.
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:11 AM PST up reply actions
Yo OrgoneDonor
I love your enthusiastic predictions – but a 400 OBP might be over the top on this one. I like Ricky a lot, not sure how much is from DrB’s inside knowledge, but he needs to get watched closely next year for sure. I think he’s more athletic than people are giving him credit for as well. I also love his cockiness – bay area sports guy has interviews with Susac, Crick and Ricky. He immediately starts talking about hitting balls into the bay. Love that.
Well
a .400 OBP is what I will expect through his MiLB career because of his walk rate, and if he pans out, what he should produce in the majors during his prime as long as he keeps his k rate below 20% (which would allow him to hit between .265-.295).
A 12% BB-rate is really good. That kind of rate tends towards an isoPatience far greater than .100—-so with a .280 avg, he should have a ~.400 obp with a 12% BB-rate
Osich for me
He has high upside and while he’s an injury risk, it’s not like a HS pitcher (Blackburn) is without risk
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 21, 2011 1:46 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Osich
Jarett Parker next, I guess?
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Blackburn I think for me next. Looooove that control from an 18 year old.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't be surprised if Blackburn's high on the list next year
But I can’t justify voting for a 16th round high schooler with only rookie league stats to go by. Sort of like a couple of years ago when people were getting all high on Matt Graham (well, sort of – he was a higher pick and had no stats at all).
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
There’s no comparison between the Dec. 2009 Matt Graham and the Dec. 2011 Blackburn. Graham was a mechanical mess his senior year in HS who had trouble hitting the low 90s with his FB despite being consistently in the mid-90s as a high school junior. Graham fell so far because everybody knew that he was a long-term project with mechanical and mental issues. Blackburn, on the other hand, is a model of consistency in his mechanics – and he has very good command and control of at least 3 pitches.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
y'know, it's funny
Because of the system’s current thinness, so many of these are basically tossups – yet it seems like, compared to previous years, we’ve had relatively few close votes.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Just wait, I think the teens will be a real battlefield.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Looking forward to those Dominguez vs Culberson threads in the coming days…
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 21, 2011 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
I voted Blackburn
could have just as easily voted Osich. They both have question marks, Blackburn’s just seems less severe.
And he’s very young.
Jarrett Parker
Someone tell me about him? I’ve seen tons of virtual ink spilled about everyone on the poll except him.
2nd round pick in 2010
Strong defensive OF, with the ability to play CF – as well as RF, where he was in SJ due to the presence of Brown – well. Excellent patience, swing is a little loopy leading to all those K’s, but has some decent power. There were some last year who thought he was actually a better prospect than Brown. The numbers are up there, but basically a .250/.360/.400 performance in San Jose last year as a 22-year-old tells most of the story. Not unreasonable to think he has more power potential and/or that he could shorten his swing and cut down on the K’s, so there is upside. Likely doesn’t project as a regular until he makes more contact or hits for a lot more power, but it’s not ridiculous to see a 4/5 OF there pretty easily.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
love the walks, but... otherwise...
He just seems so… ho hum.
.760 OPS in the Cal comes out to a 102 wRC+. For age 22, that’s also decidedly ho hum. I guess if he can play CF well, that’s where his value resides. With Brown on the depth chart in front of him, it just seems so uninspiring. Meh. Lack of upside makes me a sad puppy.
Anything interesting in his college stats?
College career .326/.423/.562 hitter, walk rate around 12% and strikeout rate around 22%. In his sophomore and junior year he had XBH% around 45%, so there’s still hope he’ll rediscover some power, but if he doesn’t than he’s got 4th outfielder written all over him.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
He had an awesome sophomore year in college – power, average, speed, defense – and got named to many 1st team AA lists. After the college season he went straight to the Cape Cod League and proceeded to lay a huge egg. Playing with a wood bat for the first time, he hit below .200 with a k-rate over 20% – in short, he was horrible. He had a decent junior year in college, although nothing close to the numbers that he put up as a sophomore. The Giants drafted him in the 2nd round (I think it was a mistake) based on what he did as a sophomore and on his speed and defense.
I saw him play a lot as a sophomore and junor in college, and if ever there was a guy with an “aluminum bat swing” it was Parker. IMO, his problem is that he still thinks he’s that HR-slugging power hitter from his sophomore season, when it’s pretty obvioius that he doesn’t have the strength and power with a wood bat to be that guy. He needs to re-shape his swing to take advantage of his fringe-plus speed and quick wrists by cutting down on his swing and removing the loft he tries to put on the ball. If he’s going to be a success in the majors it will be as a gap-to-gap line drive doubles and singles hitter who plays fringe-plus defense n CF, with an above-average arm and fringe-plus speed on the basepaths.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It should be noted
that last year was his first in professional ball and after a rough start, he seemed to get progressively better as the season went on. The strikeout issues are a huge concern but the walk rate along with the good speed and defense are intriguing enough for me to consider him in the next few picks. It should be interesting to see how he handles AA this upcoming season.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 21, 2011 6:59 PM PST up reply actions
Anyone have any thoughts on Charlie Culberson making the list sometime soon? He had a terrible year statistically in Richmond: .259/.293/.382 with a 22:129 walk-to-strikeout rate.
On the other hand, he was fairly highly ranked last year. I could see him getting plenty of big-league time this year, too, if/when Freddy Sanchez gets hurt and Burriss flops. (Not that I’d have high hopes for Culberson succeeding right away.)
I guess. Like many another Giants prospect, he’s going to need that plate-discipline and pitch-selection lightbulb to go on above his head, but who in the organization is going to teach that?
Culberson doesn’t make my top 20. One good year in his career, and an awful K/BB ratio, with middling defense at best.
As for him getting big league time, I’d certainly hope Giants brass would call up Gillaspie and try him at second before calling up Culberson.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 21, 2011 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
On the other hand, he was fairly highly ranked last year.
On the other other hand, he really shouldn’t have been. I mean, he had one decent season in the Cal League after two terrible, terrible seasons in the Sally League, while not especially young for the Cal League. He never should’ve made the top 10 last year, and his crappy 2011 season was incredibly predictable.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Look at the final list and everyone's over/underrated
Culberson was on just about everyone’s overrated list. I think he got a lot of votes from lurkers who saw good numbers but didn’t consider league context, his defense, or repeating the league.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
He got into BA’s top 10 too, though. Some others as well, I believe.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
He was on everyone's top 10
Fangraphs, BP, BA, Keith Law and John Sickel’s.
He had great stats in 2010 AND a great AFL where scouts thought he looked like a major leaguer.
Plus
Most of the people furious that Culberson was at 7 were voting for Chuckie Jones.
I was going to say he had great stats in 2010 only if you overlook the poor k/w numbers, as scouty types tend to do … but you know, he really didn’t. His numbers were pedestrian for the Cal League.
For a 21 year old 2B they were good enough for 7th in our system.
The next guys were Chuckie, Ehire, Jose Casilla, Jorge Bucardo, Tojo, Surkamp, Kickham, and Parker.
Ehire and Surkamp maybe deserved to be higher. Tojo earned his way higher. But it’s not like the surrounding guys made the ranking look moronic.
on last years list
I would’ve put Adrianza, Bucardo, Joseph, Surkamp, and maybe Parker, Sanchez, Kickham, and Hembree higher than him.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
Bucardo's weird
Because he didn’t pitch at all and I don’t think we know why even now. Have to assume it’s an injury but it was never disclosed.
Kickham actually had a pretty good season – his ERA wasn’t great, but he put up a pretty nice 3.48 FIP and showed a good degree of control with a sub-3 BB/9 for a power pitcher. But at the time we didn’t know that and he was a 4th rounder.
Casilla got destroyed, but that’s what you get for putting a low-A reliever that high up.
Jones had the same overrated thing as Culbie – same thing happened, I think, that a lot of lurkers saw Fla boosting him and jumped on the bandwagon despite no one really knowing much yet.
Parker had just been drafted and deserved to be lower considering we didn’t have any data on him yet.
Ehire hadn’t had a great season yet and was in the same Cal League – despite the defensive difference, Culberson probably deserved to be higher. Surkamp did deserve to be higher than Culbie after he had a great season in the hitter-friendly CAL.
I’d say Surkamp, Bucardo, and Joseph should have been higher. Could have made a case for Parker, Kickham, and Adrianza. Culberson still ended up probably four spots too high.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
One thing I do like
Is that in Baggs chat he made it seem like Culberson was a good defensive 2B now, which given what his reputation had been is pretty nice. He’s in my 11-15 range
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Dec 22, 2011 1:32 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
This is about to get messy.
Here’s the ranking of the prospects named above, in order of number of rec’s.
Oropesa: 10
Kickham: 9
Culberson: 9
Dominguez: 6
Galindo: 6
Flores: 3
DeJesus: 2
Dunnington: 2
After this post, there will be 6 prospects still in the poll above. So the question becomes, who do I add? I’d rather not have 11 prospects in the poll, that’s getting a bit ridiculous.
For the next post, I think I’m only going to add Oropesa, Culberson, and Kickham, and then once we knock off a few more spots we’ll do another shout-out for prospects.
I would add Oropesa, Culberson, and Kickham. The others don’t seem to be worthy.
I encourage you to check out Fish Stripes, Catch-28 and my twitter.
I think DeJesus, Flores, and Dunnington are just as worthy as Culberson.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
On second though, you are absolutely right. I am not a Culberson fan anyway. He wasn’t on my top ten before 2011 and he certainly isn’t now.
Just Oropesa and Kickham for now then.
I encourage you to check out Fish Stripes, Catch-28 and my twitter.
And I think Galindo and Dominguez are just as worth as Dunnington and Culberson (and way more so than DeJesus).
Frankly, I’d just put the whole mess of them up there. It’s an accurate reflection of the state of the system, probably.
Exactly
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 22, 2011 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
I have no faith in Dominguez
Galindo maybe – I like the K/BB and it works well for him as a speed guy. But it’s low-A. Of course, DeJesus in the DSL is even sketchier. Yeah, I’d put Galindo above DeJesus. Not Dominguez though, he’s outside my top 20 and I think DeJesus will slide into the back half of the teens.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Next poll
I think by demand you have to put Oropesa, Kickham and Culberson on. Putting the poll at 9. If the poll can go above 10 then why not just turn it to eleven.
Maybe we should talk about removing some people. Like Chuckie Jones. Sorry to those three people that keep voting for him.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
Maybe remove people if they get 5 votes or fewer.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
Times stylebook says I did fewer/less wrong. Should have been “5 votes or less.”
http://topics.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/fewer-vs-less/
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
We'd let them back on!
Just farther down the rankings. They could be reRecced on.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
I will say that I would start thinking about Galindo pretty hard at #12 and that’s going to be tougher to do if he’s not there.
And also that I think that it’s difficult to make a case for Kickham being ranked over Flores (at the very very least, they’d make for a good debate, though it seems a pretty easy case for Flores being the better prospect to me) so we shouldn’t get ourselves into a situation where Kickham’s on the list and Flores isn’t IMHO.
Do you know anything on Galindo other than what was written in BA’s Northwest League Top 20 Prospect list? He sounds interesting, but he seemed to strike out a lot for a guy with no power.
Ask me about my blog.
And, to keep rambling …
Why does Flores rank over Kickham? They had nearly similar stats (Flores: 48 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 8.8 K/9; Kickham: 111.2 IP, 3.0 BB/9, 8.3 K/9) but Kickham did it at a higher level (Augusta vs. S-K). Flores is much younger, though. Flores should play in Augusta as a 20-year-old and Kickham at San Jose as a 23-year-old.
Does Flores have outstanding scouting reports? He’s one of those guys that I don’t know much about right now.
Ask me about my blog.
by xanthan on Dec 22, 2011 7:17 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Very similar stats. To me the three years difference in their age is bigger than the one year difference in levels.
There’s also a small but noticeable difference in scouting “chatter”. Flores has a 93 heater and a good three pitch mix and scouts seem to like his athleticism and arm action. With Kickham, i keep going back to Scouting the Sally’s horrible tweet that he never heard a good thing from a scout about an Augusta player this year (that really sticks with me as a damning statement). And I have to say I saw him pitch twice this year (once live and once on TV) and both times I was a little dismayed to see that he used a very slurvy slider as his second pitch, and used it to get a lot of his Ks. It didn’t seem to me like a breaking pitch that is likely to play that well at high levels.
But really, the bottom line for me is: similar stats, three years difference in age. I kind of think Flores is ultimately going to be switched to a reliever track though, and we do seem to be stocked up in those.
Those are good points. I didn’t know he could throw 93 mph. Prepare for a duh-worthy statement: if the team makes him a reliever I’ll place Kickham above him.
Also, wasn’t the book on Kickham was that he was raw coming out of school? I think I recall hearing a Jonathan Sanchez comp to him at one time or another. Lefties that can (theoretically) start while throwing in the low-90s will get plenty of chances.
Ask me about my blog.
The sad thing about Kickham is that apparently he was ticketed for SJ before coming up with a cracked fingernail in ST. It seems he was sent to Augusta as sort of a rehab stint and just never quite performed well enough to pitch his way out of the league, which is another sort of red flag because at 22 he was old for the league and now at 23 he’s going to be very old for the Cal, so that injury really cost him in development time.
He struck out a lot of people his last year in college but had a weirdly high (5.25) ERA. According the Baseball Cube he was the 5th ranked pitcher coming out of the Missouri Valley Conference, though it’s not clear who was doing that ranking.
I don’t know that Sanchez was raw, he just wasn’t really scouted because he was pitching at such an off the beaten trail school. He dominated his conference statistically with some silly baseball numbers IIRC, including a couple of no-hitters.
Rich raved about his defensive skills and baserunning smarts. And he was a 20 year old who put up a 122 wRC+ against older competition in the NWL. That’s about it. But again, the pickin’s are getting pretty slim.
Some of the baserunning quotes on him from the BA piece were pretty heady. I do wonder if he’ll hit enough. Though, my personal credo for prospecting is that I’ll buy in on guys like Galindo at lower levels when they have loud tools (ie: his speed and defense). I generally don’t know what to make of stats at the lower levels. There just seems to be so much in play with them.
Ask me about my blog.
yeah, the noise to signal ratio is off the charts. so far he’s shown he can take a walk, steal a base, and run down fly balls, and he’s still fairly young. That’s something to build on.
though it’s worth saying that we’ve got a bunch of his type in a system that is absolutely barren of a lot of important things. Brown, Peguero, Galindo, Parker, Shawn Payne, are all sort of variations on a theme: speed and defense CF who you hope can hit enough to be valuable.
You the big league team would LOVE
to have an OF of 3 plus CF with speed and gap power.
Motto: BEAT THE FIP OUT OF THEM
The pickin's are getting rather slim
we’re going mostly on hoping stats show tools, the young guys will get better, and a few good reports.
first signs of system depression are beginning to hit me, normally Mr. Optimism.
But I still like the hitter trio of Duvall, Oropesa, Galindo to round out 13-15.
Consolidating a lot of what has been said and is true
He strikes out a bit more than one would like for a guy with a sub-.100 ISO, but a walk rate nearing 10% in A- as a 20-year-old is no joke. Combine that with a 47/8 SB/CS and strong defense and that’s a pretty nice CF prospect. Can’t complain about the K’s too much if his BB/K is over 0.5 and he’s the type of player who should be getting on base to use his legs instead of trying to hit homers. Just about the only thing he didn’t do well last year was hit for power (though a .276 average off a .330 BABIP isn’t particularly impressive), but an 0.088 ISO is not terrible – particularly in the Sally – and he did quite well for himself nearly everywhere else.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Galindo had a 9% bb rate last year, but doesn’t have the pure bat on ball skill that Peguero seems to have. So I’m going to say no to that.
Oh that. Yeah probably.
I thought I glimpsed a subtext of: is this the next guy that Roger’s going to go irrationally all-in for and badger everybody into thinking he’s better than he is and get in epic beat-downs with quincy over? And I’d say No to that. He’s interesting and at least we’ve heard his name mentioned by outside sources, so his play gets at least a raised eyebrow from professionals watching him. In our system that makes a top 15 prospect, I think. Otherwise the deluge of RP will start filtering into the ranks.
Any Guy
Who gets a Ricky Henderson comparison from somebody who knew him well – Tom Trebelhorn – is somebody to watch closely. Jesus Galindo is very young. Switch hitting with plate discipline and blazing no fear speed? Yup. 47SB against 8CS, with a 353 obp against slightly older competition. Yup. He needs to improve his hitting and I’m not sure how his fielding is, but with his speed he should have good coverage.
The stolen bases are what make me suspicious. Big SB totals get players a lot of attention, but they don’t have much real value to a major-league team. So a speedy prospect will often get more attention than he deserves.
Can I just say in defense of SBs, that they have a very real entertainment value-add? And I think big time SB players (like big time HR guys) bring that edge of excitement to a stadium that does help the players maintain their energy and focus, as well as make it more fun to be at the ballpark.
Touchy feely defense I know, but heck, I value my entertainment dollar, and I’m one of those people agreeing that those Yankees/Red Sox’ games are getting about as unwatchable as the NBA in January.
Big time SB guys – Ricky Henderson – are just as exciting. Obviously the comparison is for the baserunning and not the hitting, so I need to settle down. But I grew up in Oakland, my first game ever was Ricky’s first year, he signed my glove (along with George Brett!) and I had his rookie card, etc.
Dude, I had George Brett AND Ricky Henderson’s sig on my damn glove and my mom of course let me keep playing with it…. Still have it. Mike Schmidt glove. Sigs are long faded, but its a nice glove.
Dude...
Your momma’s so stupid she held a peace rally at a sabremetrics convention.
Srsly tho that’s too bad.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I guess for here
I don’t make a lot of jokes. It was a WAR pun.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Dude, your LARP is reaching into the negatives
Laughs
Above
Replacement
Poster
You’re never going to break into this Top 5 at this rate.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Dec 23, 2011 1:04 AM PST up reply actions
No
But it’s okay, because I can yell things like “MOTIVATIONAL DEONTOLOGICAL EPISTEMIC JUSTIFICATION” and feel superior. Also because I wrote this with my friend so I’m pretty okay with my sense of humor.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Now that’s funny. Didn’t check the link yet.
OK, link is sort of funny. I like the yell things joke better.
It's 74 pages long
You read the whole thing? Props. None of our friends could be bothered.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Good point
Also, his speed, evidence in SB, also comes into play when projecting his D in CF.
I think it’s pretty easy to see Galindo as having a 5th OF floor. He can take walks, steal bases, and man CF well; he also has the upside to be better and scouts do like him.
I like Galindo too
In fact, my votes are shifting towards more of the hitter side once Blackburn/Osich are off the block. I like Mejia a lot, but given how spurious DSL stats are, all I can base his ranking on is that he has good control and the Giants like him.
As a result, after Blackburn, I’m for Oropesa, Duvall, Galindo… these guys have good tool sets and hitters, especially ones who are a little older with some track record, are almost always safer bets than pitchers.
No way I could put DeJesus or Flores or Concepcion or Gregorio or Kickham above those guys. Maybe even Mr. Unsexy, Conor Gillaspie will get my vote before them as I do think he can be a 2nd division regular.
I do also like Dunnington though.
haha
I think i just have a really low bar set for Adrianza’s bat, and like that he walks and doesn’t K too much. Kind of the same reason I like Hector so much. Those guys just have to be better than warm bodies to get a job somewhere.
And like we’ve both said, Shortstop is a wasteland. I just think Adrianza falls back a bit, but he’s still a good prospect. More about excitement about the Gints finally getting good players in than a reflection of him. A defense first SS has a lot of value.
they also both hit switch
which is pretty nice too.
Although I heard one of Ehire’s swings isn’t so good and he should prolly scrap it.
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:15 AM PST up reply actions
Good stuff
BTW, Carlos Valdez, the RF that the Giants signed back in July, makes several uncredited cameo appearances in the video. At the very beginning of the clip he’s the first player on the left (for some reason he’s holding his bat in a LH grip). When they start showing the travel team that came to the USA this past spring, Carlos shows up several times (starting at around the 13:00 mark) – and he’s wearing #24 and taking batting practice at the 14:00 mark.
Also, the 3rd kid they feature in the clip, Yairo (Little Stick) Munoz is still available to be signed. He’s a slick-fielding SS (Plus D, plus arm, 6.5 sec in 60) who wil lturn 17 this January. Time to Swoop Sabes!
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
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