Community Prospect List #10
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 20, 2011 4:23 PM PST
Email
PrintI'm posting this one a little early, as I'll be busy later today. Anyway, Kyle Crick wins the #9 spot, and we move on to #10. I have a sneaking suspicion I know who's going to win this one, but we'll put it to a vote anyway. This post will be open until 5PM PST tomorrow, December 21st.
Please do not rec these posts. We don't want them to clutter up the recommended FanPosts section.
The list so far:
1. Gary Brown
2. Joe Panik
3. Tommy Joseph
4a. Eric Surkamp
4b. Heath Hembree
7. Andrew Susac
9. Kyle Crick
The player's first name links to his Baseball Cube profile page, and his last name links to his Fangraphs profile page.
Adalberto Mejia
Josh Osich
If you want to see any other names on this list, say so in the comments and I'll add them to the list. Vote away!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
85 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'm not an Adrianza believer
But he’s the logical choice here. Osich next.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
also, I know you want to keep the list to around 7 names
But you might want to add Ricky Oropesa soon.
Glad to have the World Series win, but still waiting on my Kim Batiste bobblehead. GET OFF YOUR HANDS, GIANTS BRASS!!!!
Adopted Giant: Dave Dravecky, starting pitcher of the greatest regular-season game I've ever attended.
I have a sneaking suspicion that after Adrianza wins this spot, Osich will win the next spot relatively easily. I’ll put up another set of names at that point.
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 20, 2011 5:11 PM PST up reply actions
About to draft Mejia as a Minor League Free Agent in my Super-Ultra-Pokemonz league.
Still a ways away, but BEAST!
COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .
Job 1:14-15
Ehire please..
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Osich
Most likely the Adrianzaistas will overwhelm at this point, but this dude could be the steal of the entire draft! Check the elbow though. Giants doctors. Oh boy. Should we go to the Dominican for a 2nd opinion? Costa Rica? Ok, Barbados.
Shoot, I’ve missed like this whole project so far.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Yeah me too. I’m surprised to see Hector over Susac.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Dec 21, 2011 7:06 AM PST up reply actions
I'm going with Osich here
I think that there’s a common misconception that he has a long history of arm imjuries due to pitching, but let me remind everybody once again that his tommy john surgery in Dec. 2009 was not caused by him blowing out his elbow when pitching. Osich was taking part in his college Fall ball practices in Nov. 2009 and had a freak accident. He slipped on a wet patch of outfield grass and ended up falling on his pitching arm – causing his throwing elbow to pop. His history of arm issues due to actually pitching are limited to minor surgery on his elbow in the summer of 2009 to relieve pressure on the ulnar nerve in his elbow and the dead arm and strained back that he experienced at the end of this past college season. Developing a dead arm near the end of your first season back from TJ surgery is pretty standard fare for most pitchers. Osich pitched 3.5 months as a starter only 14 months removed from TJ surgery, and had regained his plus velocity. I’m happy that the Giants decided to shut him down and let him rest for the entire summer and fall, and I don’t think that we should automatically assume that this means he has a fragile arm that will keep him from being a starter going forward.
One good thing about the TJ surgery is that it forced Osich to rely on his changeup as his main secondary pitch during the first 3 months of the 2011 season. All the reports I read stated that it had become a very effective pitch for him. His breaking ball is also above-average. What we have in Osich is a pitcher that was widely projected to go off the board somewhere between #25 and #50 overall only a month before the draft. He’s a lefty with a FB he can throw as fast as 97-98 mph and 2 secondary pitches that are at least average right now. Even if he has to stay in the pen, that’s a combination that looks well above-average to me. He’s well ahead of where Heath Hembree was at this same point last year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I think he’s the steal of the draft. Hey, its only UCLA, but a no-hitter matched up against Bauer is still a no-hitter, he has to make his pitches. The scrambling for reports as the draft is going on does give a little pause though. I bet this is a steal like Wilson was though. Osich is my favorite pick of 2011. Can’t believe he fell that much.
Agreed
Osich will end up being one of the steals of this draft, and as long as the injuries don’t curtail his development, I think he’ll end up being in the majors sooner than any of the other Giants draft picks. However, I expect him to become a reliever and end up in the Affeldt role of hard throwing lefty set up guy. And while the thought of a Hembree/Osich duo in the pen in the middle part of the decade is definitely exciting, I’m wondering how many of you would rank Osich this high if his future indeed is in the bullpen.
California Leaguers beware: Chris Gloor will strike you out faster than you can say "Quinnipiac", or he would have if he had pitched more than five innings this year before getting hurt...
by crazedcrustacean on Dec 20, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
It's basically where Hembree was rated last year at this time
And everybody knew that Hembree was only going to be a reliever.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I would rank him high in the pen as well. But I’m the idiot who likes Hembree, defends LOOGY signings and generally enjoys the contrarian idea of having an excellent expensive bullpen.
I don’t know about middle of the decade. I’m sort of assuming Hembree will be pitching for the Giants this year.
Adrianza is mostly a lark of mine, and I think it would be more of a cup of coffee than anything. But Hembree seems pretty solid to me — the Giants are obviously high on him and they never think anything of pushing power arms through the system. It doesn’t look like there’s a spot for him on the staff right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the first reliever called if someone gets DL’d or jettisoned for craptitude. He’s sort of a natural substitute for Casilla’s role if he were to go down again, and if Wilson has more troubles that would seem to open a natural spot for him as well (not as closer, but with everyone moving up a notch and Hembree coming into the 6th-7th inning rotation).
Totally agree. I think Wilson is very suspect at this point. I think he got too cutesy with new pitches and screwed up his arm but good. As awesome as whatever that thing is he started throwing making hitters look stupid, its not worth getting injured over. Keep it simple stupid. Fastball, cutter, no need to be a damn ninja. Hope he recovers, but I support Affeldt because Casilla as the sole closer scares the hell out of me. Dude is awesome as long as nothing goes wrong. And that’s where Wilson is dope – thrives on things going wrong, even encourages it.
Affeldt scares the bejesus out of me no matter when he’s in the game. If it came to it I’d rather have Casilla closing than Affeldt, though why choose either when you have Romo around would confuse me.
Affeldt scares the hell out of me… half the time! He was horrible for the first half this year but rebounded. Check out his splits for the last 3 years – L/R. It is absolute comedy. Definitely a mixed bag Mr. Frozen Patties, but I’ll take him over Sherill or the 41 year olds and there aren’t many other proven guys out there. I agree Romo should be the guy. But we have to play along with the Brain Trust, right?
The last 3 outs of Osich's no hitter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07F6cz8PiAg
He was still throwing hard in the 9th.
I think that it’s pretty obvious what happened to Osich. The OSU coach let him complete the game because it was a no-hitter. Osich ended up throwing 121 pitches in that game when they had been keeping his pitch count at 100 in the previous month. That game was also the first one all season where Osich was allowed free reign to throw his breaking ball. Add it all up and you can see that he overextended himself in that one game. In his 5 starts after the no-hitter it was reported that his FB velocity was way down, he didn’t have a lot of stamina and his location was off.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Is it just me or is there something really weird looking about the way the ball comes out of his hadn there? Probably just a compression thing, but I kept thinking he was throwing a screwball somehow.
I like Osich and have him just outside of my top-10, but any way you slice it the guy has had multiple arm problems before he’s even played a professional game. If you’re a pitcher, that’s a big red flag. Until I get some reassurance on that point, he’s not going to be a top-10 guy for me.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
For supposedly having a light system
I actually think that top 10 is pretty solid (assuming Ehire wins out). Maybe it’s short on star power upside other than Brown and Crick’s best outcome, but I think that group should really help the Giants big league club.
I think we will get at least a couple starters, and at some point we will trade some of the catching excess for major league help as well.
I concur
It’s not sexy, but I think that we’re going to get at least 2 strong position starters, 1 starting pitcher and 1 above-average reliever out of this top 10. Not too many teams are going to get better than that from their top 10s.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Where do you think the Giants’ system ranks in relation to the rest of the majors? Middle of the pack?
by free f.p. #14 on Dec 20, 2011 7:26 PM PST up reply actions
I suspect the consensus will have them in the bottom third. Project Prospect had a comment recently where they suggested the Giants were in the discussion for worst system in the majors which seemed overly harsh to me. I know Keith Law doesn’t like it since he doesn’t believe either of our two top guys will be starters. BA will have us around 23-24 is my guess. I think somewhere in that range is probably about right.
I’d say bottom third. Its hard to build when you’re winning/drafting late, and “competing”. Sabean has never shown interest in manipulating the draft (via type B’s/signings/etc) or trading for prospects. Obviously he has marching orders to compete and keep third & king full, but its a little frustrating. Love the new CBA, and the last six drafts have been different, we are improving. Just slowly. I’d agree on 23-24.
Its hard to build when you’re winning/drafting late, and "competing"
Not to point this directly at you, but I really dislike this thought because it sets an expectation of laziness, it seems to me. Tampa has for the last several years been competing at the highest level in the toughest division while having consistently a top 5 system. Texas has been to back to back World Series and still has one of the top systems (they’ll probably have three players in the Top 20 of BA’s Top 100 next year). Atlanta has competed and developed at the highest level for two decades now. The Phillies still had an upper level system last year (#11 in BA) despite having made three different blockbuster deals for pitching in the previous two years (and they used that talent for more big deals last summer). The Red Sox rarely have an elite system, and yet while averaging about 93 wins a year over the last decade they’ve developed two MVP candidates, a couple CY candidates, a premier closer, and had enough spare parts in the system to make blockbuster trades like the Victor Martinez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett deals (which by the by, also featured Guillermo Mota!).
It may take innovative thinking and great scouting, but the most competitive organizations do compete and build simultaneously.
by Roger on Dec 21, 2011 5:42 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, the Gaints really didn’t start concentrating on building through the draft until Sabes brought John Barr in to take charge of the draft. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the draft shakes out under the new CBA. I have a feeling that it will be much harder for teams to build through the draft anymore. IMO, there’s going to be a very high premium placed on teams that ar good judges of talent instead of just ones that are willing to take chances on spending a lot on overslot bonuses to players that fall in the draft. I think that the Giants have a slight advantage over many teams in this area.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I agree with what you’re saying to a T. My quotation mark for competing was a lazy way of being sarcastic. The Giants minor league system has been a disgrace for a long time.
Texas deals in big name high reward trades all the time. Atlanta has been very well run for a long time. Tampa Bay is a great model, and I’d love to import that GM/whatever they put in the water there and feed some to MadBum and Posey.
I suspected you were being sarcastic. That’s why I didn’t want it to seem like I was blasting you with my reply.
The Giants just have a sloppy style. Here, take my Ryan Verdugo throw in. Here, take Sosa AND Stoffel. Arbitration offer? What’s a Type B free agent again? Maybe those guys aren’t grade a prospects, but its hard to build depth in the system when you’re sloppy.
On the other hand, hitting on Timmy, MadBum, Posey in 3 consecutive drafts is downright amazing. They have demonstrated considerable prowess at developing pitching both early and late in the draft. They haven’t really given away too many good pieces in these throw ins. Maybe if we kept Accardo or Aardsma they would have developed better, who knows.
Its harder to get good players the later you pick obviously, but they seem to be doing better at that as well. If they had burned the house down instead of the Rowand/Zito signings, things would be different. But they didn’t. I guess that’s what I was also getting at with the sarcasm about competing. Two more years of pain.
Since 2006 the drafts are night and day different. 4 years into Barr, we’re finally getting some hitters who may actually turn out. Its pretty exciting actually, but yeah, I wish the Giants had a slightly different style. I hope they continue to invest in the farm, its the best way to compete by a long shot.
My take on the offseason success/failure is entirely on the shoulders of the Matt Cain extension. I can deal with skipping Beltran, the other big names as well, as long as our guys start getting locked up.
This.
Their drafting prowess and pitcher development has been shown to be well above average. The jury’s still out on their hitter development, but Panda, Buster, and Belt are good notches in their belt. Crawford, Adrianza, and Pegs, otoh, may be talent-limited, or they may indicate an organization that the org still has weaknesses with player development, particularly with emphasizing seeing more pitches and taking walks in the case of Pegs.
The biggest frustration is indeed the way they tend to abuse the farm via trades. Last year, they traded away Neal, Verdugo, Sosa, Stoffel, and Wheeler. 2 top10 prospects, and 4-5 top20 prospects(arguably). That does indeed kill depth, and a C+ prospect that’s #20 one year can indeed vault to a B/B+ and top10 status with a good season. If you trade them away, they don’t get that chance. I wouldn’t mind as much if they tried to actually bolster the farm via trades form time to time as well, but they don’t.
That’s not terribly unusual for competing teams though. The key is determining which ones you can let go and which you can’t. Boston has been a pretty good model in that the last few years. St. Louis has definitely seen their farm system as a way to obtain major league talent during their past decade and it worked to the tune of three World Series appearances and two titles. That was more true under Walt Jocketty, certainly.
losing wheeler, neal, and verdugo was bullshit.
while there was a solid reason (flags fly forever and we can’t just let these guys pitch their hearts out without trying to help them) to trade wheeler, that one still sucked. but giving up neal for orlando cabbage and verdugo in the melky deal was infuriating.
One more thing
Michael Tucker/Benitez et al, the punting of the draft picks… That is the ultimate in laziness to me.
Glad they brought in Barr for sure. Whether it was Sabey Sabes idea or Petey M, whoever insisted on more eyes made a good call.
+1
I have the Giants in the 22-24 range also. Although, they are so deep in the lower minors that I could see them taking a biggish jump into the mid-teens if some of their lower minors break out in 2012.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I wonder about that depth, though...
Do the Giants just seen deep in the low minors because our upper minors are so thin? Maybe other organizations don’t seem to have that lower minors depth because it takes time, research, and following the team avidly to become familiar enough with low minors prospects. In other words, maybe all organizations have similar levels of low minors depth, it’s just that we don’t see it in other orgs because we don’t follow their non top20 prospects.
by Nivra on Dec 21, 2011 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
absolutely when it comes to non-top 20 guys
but how many of them are we dreaming on now?
it really comes down to if Crick, Blackburn, Mejia all start in Augusta and are fantastic, this system will jump enormously. And all those guys are on the current radar.
Moreover, if Tommy Joseph has a wRC+ > 100 (120 would be nice!) and continues to improve as a catcher, he will be a league-wide top 100 guy. That will change things.
If Gary Brown sniffs anything near the 140 wRC+ he had in the Cal league in the EL, he will gain even more helium (and since he’s a fast, contact guy who hits it to the gaps, that’s very possible whereas many of the best Cal league hitters are power hitters who get a ton of a flyouts in the EL)
If Joe Panik maintains his career rate of never striking out more than 9% of the time (which if you think about it is pretty amazing…his BA and his BABIP throughout his career have differed by only an average of .010, which is among the smallest I’ve ever seen), and goes back to having his walk rate greater than 10% (it ranged from 12.8% to 15.7% in college = elite), we have a pretty good guy to slot in the #2 hole and play up the middle.
Meanwhile, Andrew Susac, Josh Osich, and Ricky Oropesa were all solid college prospects who had tough seasons and have the talent to be serious risers.
Hector will probably see some time with the big league club this year—and while it may cost him prospect status—could increase his value as a trade chip/Buster back-up assuming he pounds RHP and takes walks.
With out system, it’s the guys in the top 15 that have the potential to be serious risers because almost all of them are in the low minors, our very best prospects included.
top20 and non-top20 are dependent on the strength of the upper minor systems...
Let’s do a thought experiment for a moment…
Imagine a world where the Giants didn’t trade:
Wheeler, Neal, Verdugo, Sosa …
and the following prospects lived up to their billing/potential & didn’t get accused of murder:
Kieshnick, Culberson, AnVil, Noonan, Gillespie, RafRod, Parker
The upper minors would be stacked with talent. Many of those guys would be AAA or AA last year, and if they were all performing well would all be top20 talents.
That would push basically everyone after Osich off the current top20, including Mejia and Blackburn. We wouldn’t be talking about the potential of low minors players, except maybe for Crick. And even he would probably be out of the top 10. Sure, ToJo would still be around 5-10 or so.
My point is that the fact that we have so many low minors players in the top20 such as Mejia, DeJesus, Blackburn, Crick, Duvall, Chuckie, and that we can say there’s so much potential there is because we lack upper minors depth. Another organization that has the upper minors depth has similar potential, except it’s in slots 20-30, and they recognize it, but they don’t point to it and say, “See, we have low minors depth, because they can just say we have a strong system, from top to bottom.” Even some of our top10 low minors guys like ToJo, Panik, Crick, Ehire, would be pushed down 5 slots or so if we had some more upper minors depth.
Just as for instance, the star of the DSL this year was a Cubs 3B named Jeimer Candelario who absolutely destroyed the league, hitting .337/.443/.478, while playing the entire season at age 17 (he turned 18 last month). This was significantly better than the terrific year that Xander Bogaerts had had the year before, leading to his emergence in the states this year.
Now the Cubs have a solid system with nice depth but not a lot of star talent. And based on Jim Callis’ comments in the Cubs chat, Jeimer is probably going to be ranked about #20 in their system.
That's a good example
But I’m surprised he’d be ranked so low in the Cubs system—it’s terrible, worse than ours easily.
The reason is that I went through the DSL stat sheets and picked him and Orlando Arcia as the guys I would want from the whole DSL. Guys who showed great plate discipline and didn’t strike out much. I think that’s a great formula, and enough that I thought of him (in my mind) as better than Brett Jackson (who k’s a lot) and considered him the Cubs best prospect.
And I think that’s what the difference is between guys like me at home and scouts/publications. They want to see more, have seen a guy, and have more to base an opinion on. We, meanwhile, often really only have access to statistics and gleaning patterns we like from them to predict whether or not we think a guy will be successful. More importantly, we aren’t really held accountable the same way if we miss on a lot of high-upside guys far away; if we are right on one we feel like a genius. The scouts/publications are expected to be right, or not far off, on all of them.
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:21 AM PST up reply actions
oh
really liked Juan Santana too.
Youngest guy at 16 until August.
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:22 AM PST up reply actions
I understand your point. My answer would be that I do follow the top 25 or so prospects of the vast majority of the other 29 teams and, IMO, the Giants currently do have a lot more depth of talent in the lower minors than most teams do. They don’t have the star talent in the lower minors that the best systems have, but they do have a lot of depth. With so much depth, I can’t imagine that at least a couple of these guys are going to make a name for themselves in 2012 and make a big jump up the charts.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
How on earth do you have enough memory to do all that? I have trouble keeping track of just the Giants’ top 25.
Adopted father of Chris Lincecum, without whom (quite literally) Timmy would not exist.
Keeps an external brain in a jar on his desk
and uses it just for prospect memory
I dont really agree that the system is so light
I think it is pretty good. It lacks elite ceilings—we don’t have Matt Moore or Jurickson Profar up at the top, but this system has improved dramatically since a year ago, when outside of Brandon Belt and a great scouting report on Wheeler, and some good potential that Gary Brown could be a big league CF, was otherwise pretty lacking.
The 2011 draft really changed this system; this team managed to get 5 guys with 1st round/supp round talent, and some of them are looking like really smart picks (Susac, Osich) and others have played above expectations (Panik).
Also, Brandon Belt used his rookie eligibility, but I still kinda consider him a prospect, and a very good one at that.
This is a bold wager, but I’m with Fla-Giant below: this Top 10 will result in good major league talent. I would wager that it will produce more major leaguers than more than half of the Top 10s for 2012 across the MLB. And I think their combined WAR will rank among the ten best systems five years from now.
The Giants draft safe; Gary Brown and Joe Panik are pretty safe bets to be solid regulars. Tommy Joseph has a lot of potential to be an elite catcher, but even if he just becomes Miguel Olivo, that is still pretty valuable.
Meanwhile, Hembree and Osich could both be elite relievers. Hembree sooner rather than later.
Kyle Crick has Matt Cain upside. Man it feels good to say that.
Surkamp should be at least an acceptable 5th starter for some years. That has value too. We also could use one of those that doesn’t cost anything. That he has the upside to be better is icing on the cake.
Andrew Susac has been an elite catching prospect since high school, and was without a doubt the best college catcher in the draft. He could be another Buster Posey, or he could be a much weaker player. But he has as a very good chance of being a MLB catcher, especially since he currently projects to be plus on both sides of the ball.
Hector Sanchez has appeal too; There aren’t many catching prospects throughout the majors who look even as good as he does. He should be at least a very good big league backup.
All that said, most will rank this system somewhere around #20.
But look at the other Org Top 10s out there—-and they don’t really seem so much better. Look at Tampas: after Matt Moore, nobody is really that special (of course, Matt Moore is really freaky special). Hak-Ju Lee could be a great offensive SS, or he could be nothing. He will probably make the majors though on account of his defense, but he might just be another Reid Brignac. That is their #2 guy. There is no way that Tampa is a top 5 system right now.
Even look at the Rangers: the only guy in their system I really envy is Profar. Martin Perez is young and has a great scouting report, but he is still yet to put up a great season ANYWHERE; he is a good pitching prospect but not anything close to a guy like Moore. Mike Olt strikes out over 24% of the time as a former college player; he has power, but I think he will flame out, even with his plate discipline. A 24% K-rate is really high for A+. He won’t hit for a high average. He is an iffy prospect. Neil Ramirez is a pretty good pitching prospect, but again, doesn’t profile as somebody special.
As much as the Giants system has been pretty underrated, most of the good systems, Rays, Yankees, Rangers, Royals, etc are very overrated.
I feel confident that the Giants system is going to produce some valuable major leaguers that will plug some pretty big holes: the middle infield (Panik), CF (Brown), and another catcher to share duties with Buster (and one of the other two could likely be traded for another valuable piece if two of the three pan out), a lights-out closer (Hembree, one of the best RP prospects in baseball), a solid #4/5 (Surkamp), and that’s only half of it.
I like our system. It will do the big Giants good.
Fixt
and another catcher to share duties with Buster (and one of the other two could likely be traded for Yuniesky Betantcourt if two of the three pan out), a lights-out closer (Hembree, one of the best RP prospects in baseball), a solid #4/5 (Surkamp), and that’s only half of it.
I would wager that it will produce more major leaguers than more than half of the Top 10s for 2012 across the MLB. And I think their combined WAR will rank among the ten best systems five years from now.
I would probably take that bet. And I’m a pretty conservative bettor.
Osich for me.
Sorry, But I wouldn’t vote for Adrianza for a few more picks.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
after about this point we have a bunch of “suspects” not prospects. You guys are pretty convincing about Osich’s potential, but there’s anyway a big drop after him and Adrianza. who is also a suspect.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
yes
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 21, 2011 1:20 AM PST up reply actions
I voted Blackburn
/runs from being pelted by rocks and bottles/
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this son of Cabrera.
FWIW
Guys still on the board who made their league’s Top 20 prospect lists this year:
Blackburn (#4 AZL)
Joan Gregorio (#18 AZL)
Jesus Galindo (#9 NWL)
Chris Dominguez (#17 Cal)
And, for the fun of it, here’s all the Giants related comments from the various BA chats that went along with those league rankings (the relative paucity of Giants-related questions is actually a comment in and of itself):
Mark (Gilbert,AZ): Do you see anything coming from Giants catcher Eric Sim this year? I was at a few games this year and he impressed me with his hitting ability.
Bill Mitchell: Sim hit well in his second AZL season but scouts have him down as primarily an organizational guy. The good news that I heard about Sim was how impressed Mike Caldwell (ex-big league pitcher and AZL Giants pitching coach) was with his defense behind the plate; that kind of ability will keep him in the game for a while.
Roger (Greenville, SC): Is it just me or is there a disconnect on where Panik will play eventually? The quotes in the scouting report say SS, but the tools are screaming 2B, and I don’t see from the stats how the bat would be pressured at 2B.
Conor Glassey: It wouldn’t shock me if Panik wound up at second base, but I disagree that the tools “scream” that he needs to move there. He’s not a defensive whiz, but he makes all the plays, has enough arm, positions his feet well. He’s solid. As for the bat being pressured at second base, scouts didn’t think Panik has an impact bat. Obviously he’s a lefthanded hitter, but Panik got compared to guys like Gary Disarcina and Mike Bordick and in today’s game, second base is a more offensive position than shortstop. The average SS and 2B hit about the same, but this year, for example, there are four everyday shortstops with an OPS above .800 but there are seven second basemen.
Bryan (Palo Alto, CA): Everyone was calling Joe Panik a overdraft but did he show the tools to be worthy of a first round pick? What is his projection and can he stick at short?
Conor Glassey: I do think Panik was a bit of a reach for the Giants. We had him ranked No. 67 in our pre-draft Top 200, which would have put him in the second round and I know some teams preferred him in the 3-5 round range. He’s a high floor, low ceiling guy and I think he can stay at shortstop.
Greg (Anaheim): Were there any other Giants prospects that came close to inclusion in the tops 20? Also, do the Giants have any sleeper prospects to keep an eye on for next year?
Conor Glassey: Righthander Kendry Flores was one of the two or three guys to narrowly miss the list. Young, lanky kid that shows good athleticism and a loose arm. He has a three-pitch mix (though he needs to throw his changeup more often), including a fastball up to 93 and a good breaking ball. As far as a sleepers go, keep an eye on outfielder Shawn Payne. He’s skinny as can be but put up great numbers for a 35th round pick.
Bryan (Palo Alto, CA): Since last years draft there has been some very good buzz around OF Chuckie Jones. I know he didn’t have a good statistical season but what did the managers have to say about the tool set and his future?
Conor Glassey: I like Chuckie Jones. He has serious raw power but is very raw at the plate. He showed poor pitch recognition and trouble catching up to fastballs.
Josh G (Stockton, CA): How close was Giants OF Chuckie Jones to making this list?
Conor Glassey: Not close. Would have been in the 31-40 range.
Lory (Tampa): What was the scoop on Adrianza, especially his defense?
Josh Leventhal: The scoop on Adrianza is a lot like it was last year: above-average defense, but still lacking at the plate. He’s gotten stronger but can still be exposed at the plate. He just turned 22 and had to repeat the league after breaking his hand this spring. He missed some needed development time on the field, but he still has time.
Dan (Boise): It’s been said that Tommy Joseph’s bat will struggle in AA. Would you agreee?
Josh Leventhal: Not too many knocks on Joseph’s bat. He still needs to develop a more consistent approach at the plate and his swing can get a bit long at times. But he’s got a lot of potential, especially after his improvements defensively. He proved he can stick at catcher. Should be fun to follow next year.
Rich W (New Jersey): I love the skill set of Gary Brown. I can’t help but notice that he’s old for the league and therefore would like to know your opinion on how he’ll do once he’s exposed to AA pitching next year? Do the Giants have any concerns and is that why they kept him in High-A all season?
Josh Leventhal: His defense and speed alone should get him to the big leagues. Besides that, there was a lot of praise for his ability to make contact. He doesn’t strike out a lot chasing pitches out of the strike zone.
Jon (SC): RHP Heath Hembree was not in either top 20’s for the Cal League or Eastern League despite leading the minors in saves. Where does he stand in terms of prospects?
John Manuel: He was pretty close to making both lists, and he still throws straight butane at 98-99 at times. It’s easy and he’s got a little extra life. But he doesn’t really have a second reliable pitch yet; his breaking ball comes and goes. Give Dick Tidrow a little more time with him, and you might have a less-bearded replacement for Brian Wilson soon. Hembree’s one of the minors’ best relief prospects; I’d probably take him over Addison Reed myself.
Mel (St Paul): After what name on this [Eastern League] list does it go from “bonafide future mlb regular” to “just another prospect” ?
John Manuel: To me, everyone on this top 20 has a chance to be a regular, and so do guys that I didn’t include, like Avery or Benson or even Tyler Moore or Casey Crosby, or Jeff Locke, or Justin DeFratus … This is a deep league list. The 11-20 list has more questions … really at about No. 10. I like Henderson Alvarez; there are some who believe his breaking ball is too short for him to be a starter long-term, and they may be right. I like Eric Surkamp (#11), and so did managers; some scouts think his fastball’s just too short. Francisco Peguero (#14) has K-zone issues; Lavarnway’s defense is iffy; Chiang has had one big year and stunk after the trade. So those guys aren’t locks. But Chiang, Hechevarria, McPherson at the back of the list profile as regulars, for me.
Actually, you have to move Blackburn up to #3 in the AZL. One of the guys that finished ahead of him on BA’s list was a Dominican prospect that recently was suspended and found to be 2 years older than his “birth certificate” showed him to be.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Also, I really like Sim as a sleeper. His defense at catcher is so good that if he can just hit .250 he’ll be an asset on any team. I can’t believe how many runners that he picked off on 1B and 2B this past season – and I’m not talking about the runners that he threw out trying to steal a base.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
If the Gints think Panik can stick at short
Maybe they draft the Cal 2B in the 2nd/3rd round: Tony Renda. 36th in BA’s college players, reigning Pac10 Player of the year. Everybody’s assuming they’ll restock the pitching, so they’ll do something off the wall of course.
I don’t know if Brown’s going to be up to the bar of quality set by Lincecum, Posey and Bumgarner, but he’s certainly going to be a fun player to watch.
Mark DeRosa , he had his moments.
Keeping track of this
is one of the reasons why this guy should win most-informative.
Thanks.
Bye Travis and thanks for 2010! Good luck with the Brewers!
Roger had my vote instantly
If I’d known Roger would’ve been the hands-down guy, I’d have voted for Owlcroft, if only for all his TOPS stuff, and calming everybody in the game thread when the Buster injury happened.
I’m actually surprised that Owlcroft hasn’t won it already. Everybody talks to him with respect, even when he’s being pugnacious with everybody. Man has baseball street cred of the highest order.
MCC should auction off dinner with Owlcroft as a fundraiser. I’m broke, but I would bid. I’d love to have dinner with Owlcroft.
(I’d probably also bid for dinner with Roger too.)
by OrgoneDonor on Dec 23, 2011 12:27 AM PST up reply actions
owlcroft's an interesting poster
But it doesn’t surprise me that he hasn’t won before – his opinions are quite strong, typically unyielding to change, and not infrequently based on dubious evidence. Though I guess I shouldn’t be the one to say that. A lot (probably most) of what he says is great, but I’m not convinced his metrics are as good as he thinks they are, and nearly everything he believes seems to be based on them, so he can say some off-the-wall stuff sometimes. Normally that’d be fine, but like I said he is very unwilling to look at outside information (by this I mean stats that disagree with his) and doesn’t bend to argument so eventually people stop talking to him. The guy is an unrelenting well of information, but not particularly reader-friendly (he tends to write posts that are quite long and unsegmented) or easy to interact with. You can get a lot with him by persevering but other guys are easier to dig stuff from.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
He's the gritty vet of MCC
And you’re right—he is really difficult. But even when people are clearly furious at him for being so unrelenting, they still generally treat him with a different tone, one of respectful disagreement, when if he was anybody else they would be screaming and cursing.
Absolutely
Because unlike a lot of unrelenting people, he brings value to the discussion. Even if people get annoyed talking to him (and from what I’ve seen, that includes most everyone at one point or another) they appreciate that he’s not a moron and not being deliberately confrontational.
He’s not always hard to talk to, but he’s generally harder than guys like Fla or Roger.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Stan Musial or not, it’s time for Albert Pujols to finally accept the ‘El Hombre’ nickname
- The 10 best things about being a Giants fan
- Spring Swing: Joe Maddon and Co. welcoming big expectations for Rays
- I, Zim Bear: This Rays giveaway is terrifying
- Ask Alex: Are Carl Crawford’s best years behind him?
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
