Would You Have...
by Andy Warpath on Dec 17, 2011 6:52 PM PST
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PrintSince the offseason started, seemed like Jimmy Rollins was a bit of pipe dream. If my memory serves me right, he was looking for 5 year/75m, which would have been ridiculous and obviously out of the giants price range. I am curious for the community's opinion, though, on the 3 yr/33m contract Rollins just signed with Philadelphia. If you were Brian Sabean, would you have pulled the trigger on this more user friendly (at least partially) Rollins deal?
Hidden bonus questions:
Would you have signed Rafael Furcal @ 2yr/14m?
Nick Punto @ 2yr/3m?
Or traded for Jed Lowrie for a comparable relief pitcher, call it maybe Casilla?
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It's not just these moves.
But a lot of GMs made much smarter moves this offseason than Sabean did.
Every team in their division dealt with their challenges and got better in the process. The Padres got a good haul for Latos. Agent Ned actually improved the Dodgers. The Rockies didn’t hurt themselves at all with their moves, and getting Cuddyer on an affordable deal just rubs salt in the wound. And then Billy Beane stuck the dagger in with the Cahill deal.
The Giants cannot claim anymore to have the best top-to-bottom rotation in their division, let alone the National League, and after the smoke clears from all these deals every team in their division except maybe the Padres (and that’s in question by the midseason) has a better offense than the Giants. But because of the Rainy Day Fund and past bad contract decisions, this team is basically treading water right now, at a time when Timmy and Matt are making decisions about their long-term status with this club.
If ownership gets used to this RDF payroll level of about $130 million, so they can skim the rest off the top to line their pockets, then truthfully you have to give up the idea that Tim AND Matt can stay here long term, because having $60 million in payroll go to your rotation doesn’t pencil out for a $130 million payroll. So the Giants might as well carve it up now and see what they can get for both of them by midseason when the team is out of the race.
Sure, you may think this is way too gloomy, but let’s check back and see where this team is at the deadline in their division and what the chances are at that point of them retaining Cain and Lincecum at all long term.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
In a half-hearted defense of Sabean
Most other team are in a better position to make moves. The Giants entered the offseason up against their payroll ceiling, with a lot of immoveable contracts, a bunch of players they need give a substantial raise to retain, a pedestrian farm system, and no particularly valuable trade pieces beyond untouchables like Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, etc.
Then again, Sabean’s ultimately responsible for all those things, and these same circumstances seem to crop up quite often over his tenure.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
B, I agree with you that some of this was baked in the cake.
But a better GM would not have spent $5 million of that precious RDF salary cap on Affeldt before seeing how the offseason market shaped up. And a better GM would have told this ownership group, even post-Neukom in the RDF era that attracting Beltran and keeping Timmy and Matt long term are predicated on the same thing: going over-budget in 2012 to bring in more offense, which will be paid for when the bad contracts roll off in the coming years.
Instead, they are banking on these minor changes and key contributions from Posey, Sanchez, and Huff to draw sell-out crowds and keep Timmy and Matt around for years. It’s just as likely if not more so that Timmy and Matt will continue to lose one-run games next season and this team will find itself in worse shape next offseason.
But at least the owners will have their profits.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
by Al Rosen on Dec 18, 2011 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It seems clear, from the Fontenot-or-Keppinger business among other things, that Sabean is getting no wiggle room at all on the budget, and I can’t imagine he hasn’t tried. I haven’t loved the decisions he has made this off-season, but we have to concede that he’s stuck playing a pretty poor hand.
I agree that he doesn't seem to have any wiggle room in the payroll
But at the same time, the 9.25M he committed to Lopez/Affeldt right away seems to me to be a poor allocation of resources that he was completely in control of and that money could have changed a lot of things. If he waits a bit, he might realize Beltran’s market isn’t what everyone expected, or that he can get a guy like Sherrill for much cheaper. He’s obviously a downgrade, but I’ll take something like Sherrill + Runzler + Beltran over Lopez + Affeldt any day.
Adopted Giant: Mike Fontenot
He's like Grant, but fun size.
Occasionally, I tweet.
I could be wrong, but it seems like a lack of patience has become a major part of his MO in the offseason.
by BestHyperboleEver on Dec 20, 2011 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
It does seem like the Giants tend to blow their wad in November.
Particularly when they have little payroll space to work with.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
The Giants cannot claim anymore to have the best top-to-bottom rotation in their division
Of course they can. And even better, they’d be right.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Sorry Roger,
we’ll agree to disagree on that.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
You can’t be talking about Arizona can you? I’m not sure the Saunders for Cahill exchange was even a net positive for them (in fact, I think they’d have been better off keeping Parker), but Cahill certainly isn’t better than Bumgarner as long as Madison’s left arm is still attached. And they’ll still have Collmenter in the rotation and I assume Trevor Bauer as well. And that’s the bottom, I don’t think the top compares at all.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Even then
Our 1-3 is rock solid, up there with any top three in baseball. Vogelsong’s a little iffy to repeat his performance, but his peripherals were good and he looked solid out there – I’m not convinced he’s a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, but a 3.65 FIP/3.85 xFIP weren’t lying. Between Zito and Surkamp I think we can squeeze a pretty good 5th starter too.
LA might have the best argument actually – Kershaw matches up well with Lincecum, and the same goes for Billingsley and Cain. Harang’s the 5th starter wild card, but Vogelsong beats Capuano and Lilly’s no Bumgarner.
SD and COL lose after they traded Latos and Jiminez – they have no #1 that can match up with us, much less the depth we boast.
Arizona’s rotation is not as good as some people think – Kennedy, Hudson, and Cahill are all good pitchers, but I don’t think Kennedy is a Lincecum-type ace. Cain looks like he has a slight edge over Hudson who isn’t experienced enough yet to call a No. 2, and Cahill is simply not as good as Bumgarner – he gets some nice GBs, but he doesn’t K enough hitters. Collmenter is as iffy as Vogelsong and though their rotation depth is very nice with Bauer and Skaggs, their projected fifth starter right now is still Barry Enright.
The Giants still have the best rotation in the West, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. I think LA also has a better argument than Arizona (though they’re third and it is close) – it’s an older team that won’t be good enough to justify how much they’re ignoring 2014, but for now their rotation looks better. Unless Arizona is very trigger-happy with Bauer and Skaggs (no way Bradley is ready yet) they don’t have the upside or depth the Giants do.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Only quibble:
traded for Jed Lowrie for a comparable relief pitcher
Romo is probably the only one. Affeldt certainly isn’t comparable to Melancon in value. Hembree might be better eventually, but Melancon is probably more of a sure value for a contending team in 2012.
Wilson?
No way he gets moved, but he’s a better value than Melancon – more expensive now and fewer years of control, but a more proven RP with postseason experience and success.
I think if Weiland gets taken out of the deal then Casilla/Ramirez/Affeldt could be of interest, and if we’re willing to send some money (sounds weird, but the Sox are up against the payroll tax and I heard they don’t want to hit it) I think Lowrie could have been had for a borderline-SU if Lowrie+Weiland fetched only Melancon.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Many of those options would be palatable, but the one I'd most prefer isn't even on your ballot!
You’re missing Jamey Carroll.
West
The Giants might have the best pitching in the west, but the lack of any significant bats in the lineup is going to doom the Giants to 70-80 wins. They just don’t score enough runs, they have no power in the lineup at all. The Giants have put everything into pitching and zippo into the lineup. I can’t see how they spend 5 Mill on a relief pitcher, and do nothing for the lineup. I agree that the Giants are just going to have to face the facts that they cannot afford two starting pitchers making 20 Mill + a year and end up with 130 MILL payroll and be able to put a lineup that can score some runs. They only way that they can get both pitchers signed long term is to start developing position players, which they have not done very well.
by Giants-Just-Win on Dec 20, 2011 1:15 AM PST reply actions
Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and Huff are all capable of 20+ homer seasons. There is power.
Last year we endured incredibly terrible injuries and unsustainably bad performance with RISP – teams usually hit better with men on base, and we were God-awful. They got Cabrera and Pagan – not sexy, and Lowrie would have been a nice add, but they made a couple decent moves with what they had. There is no way the offense will be that bad next year unless we have the same injury issues or everyone collapses – if Huff bounces back, Belt breaks out, and Sanchez and Posey are fully healthy, we could have an above-average offense. If a couple of those things happen, we should hit average, and we won 92 games with average in 2010. The pitching ought to be better next year than it was then with Bumgarner over Sanchez, Vogelsong over Wellemeyer+2010 Bumgarner (who collectively were not good but MadBum obviously was) and Surkamp ready to take Zito’s spot if he stumbles. The depth is better and the overall quality is better. The only way 2012 is worse than 2011 is if our luck is just as bad, either with injuries or players going back in development (or deteriorating), and 2011 resulted in 86 wins. A lot has been made of Sabean not doing much, but not a lot has been made of Sabean not being able to do much and not needing to do much – the core of a great team is still there.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeah, I haven’t been a big fan of the offseason budget constrictions, but really I think folks are going overboard with the gloom and doom. A lineup that features Posey, Panda, and hopefully Belt will certainly be easy to root for. Pagan’s a useful and productive players and Cabrera is young enough that there’s room for hope that last year involved at least some corner turning in his career.
The division’s not a foregone conclusion and it will be competitive. That’s not a bad thing. That’s a fun thing. That’s the fun of sports and this will be a fun team to root for. And really, if we get a press conference announcing Matt’s been locked up sometime in March, a lot of the gloom will dissipate I suspect.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
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