Baseball America Giants Top 10 List
by Roger on Nov 30, 2011 9:29 AM PST
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PrintI put this on one of Fla-Giant's Winter Lines yesterday, but as that's off the front page at this point, I thought I'd make it it's own Fanpost for those who didn't see it and might want to comment.
The BA Giants Top 10 List for 2011 is:
- Gary Brown
- Tommy Joseph
- Heath Hembree
- Joe Panik
- Francisco Peguero
- Andrew Susac
- Eric Surkamp
- Kyle Crick
- Ehire Adrianza
- Hector Sanchez
For those wondering, though the Giants list isn't announced on the BA site until 12/14, the print edition with the entire NL West division is out, and interestingly in a twist, most of the rest of the division's lists are dominated by pitchers, while the Giants (and Padres) are dominated by position players. Arizona's list is pretty clearly the class of the division. SD has pretty good depth. LA, Colorado, and SF are all a little thin though each has some interesting names.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Mmm, lot of catching depth in their. I like the aggressive Joseph ranking. Hembree is high for my tastes, but otherwise a pretty good list.
Ask me about my blog.
You just forgot to add
list. “Mmm, lot of catching depth in their list. A simple oversight.
My two favorite teams are the Giants, and whomever is playing the Dodgers!
by World Series or Bust on Nov 30, 2011 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
Hembree at 3 is a real eye brow raiser. I guess I can sort of see the argument that everybody after him (with, IMO, the exception of Panik) has serious flaws or gaps in their toolsets. But still, it comes off as a real indictment of the system to have a reliever that high. Let me quicklike check and see what Wilson’s peak ranking was. It was 5, behind Lincecum, J. Sanchez, Villalona, and Manny Burriss.
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Hembree's minor league career is much more impressive than Wilson's.
Wilson’s career in the minors, honestly, wasn’t so impressive. 9-10 K/9, 4.5-6 BB/9, ages 24 and 25.
Compare to Hembree: 11-16 K/9, 4-4.5 BB/9, ages 21-22.
I can’t believe Burriss was in our top 5 in 2007. eew.
Yes, absolutely. though Wilson had the excuse of coming back from TJ. But still, yes, Hembree’s last year was much more impressive than any of Wilson’s.
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In that vein, I think his high ranking says more about BA than anything else...
Wilson’s minor league season was decidedly ho hum… reminds me of Rosin’s season this past year or Dunnington’s. Still, BA ranked him #5. Seems like they just have a bias towards flamethrowing closers that most other prospect lists don’t have.
They are scouts oriented over stats oriented, and have a decided bias towards velocity. Wilson was a guy who scouts always liked, he was a likely late first round going into the draft before his elbow snapped. Once he proved he was healthy again, that love came back.
That said, that was an unimposing list. Aside from Burriss in the top 4, the rest of the top 10 was Frandsen, Lewis, Schierholtz, EME, and Billy Sadler, and the best players on the rest of the list were Ishikawa, and guys like Yeah Joey, Merkin Valdez, Thomas Neal, Brian Bocock. So you could see Wilson being where he was. Except of course they had two major omissions on that list who failed to make the top 30 at all: Pablo Sandoval, who was coming off a brutally awful season in the Sally, but who was still very young, and Sergio Romo, who, somewhat like Rosin, had failed as a starter in the Sally and been moved to the bullpen pretty decent success.
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by Roger on Nov 30, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Heck, compare to Kimbrel
Kimbrel career MILB rate stats, ages 20-22 over 151 IP
1.85 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 4.4 H/9, 5.7 BB/9, 14.4 K/9, 2.55 K/BB
Hembree, Ages 21-22 over 64.1 IP
1.68 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 6.3H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 4.00 K/BB
I’d give pre-Sept 2010 Kimbrel the slight edge as a prospect due to having more of a track record at a year younger, but I’d say they’re pretty firmly in the same class. If Hembree maintains the same K/BB numbers and improves his secondary stuff while keeping his velocity, I’d put him above Kimbrel and look forward to having our own ROY-candidate impact closer.
Of course, we’d need to trade Willy first.
Me too
I guess this is why we have the discussions: distribution of research, info, and ideas among of a bunch of bright MCC prospect-hounds can give us all a better sense of prospects.
I’m now beginning to think that BA isn’t so crazy with their list and that I’d consider putting Hembree at #4 or #5 on my own list. Impact closers are pretty valuable before they get overvalued in FA.
Here’s hope to having our own (hopefully less Wild) Craig Kimbrel and 2013 NL ROY!
Sadly Heath isn’t giving us a great impression of being less wild as of yet. Maybe next year!
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Oh he's still a bit wild
but less so than Kimbrel and Wilson, who had BB/9 closer to 6, while Hembree hovered just above 4 last season.
Also worth noting (as I’m sure Fla-Giant will note when he jumps in this convo), most of Hembree’s walks occurred in few bad outings where he couldnt find the plate.
He only walked 25 all season. And while you can’t throw out stats to make a prospect look better, the SSS of relievers can allow a couple bad outings to severely skew his rate stats.
Random example: Say he walked a total of 6 guys in 1.1 IP comprising two blown saves, that would have single-handedly raised his BB/9 from 3.28 to 4.23—-a raise of .95 that pushes his BB-rate from a very good number that shows a guy with great stuff that can control it to a number that causes concern.
Stats are only part of the equation, but what we want to know is his true talent, or what we can expect on most days as any pitcher will have bad days with some regularity, non-Matt Cain division.
At least from what we’ve seen and heard so far, Hembree has the look of a guy who could be an impact closer, even if his true talent walk rate is close to 4.
If he has a true talent K/BB > 3, which I see no reason to doubt, I take that as being in the very good range for the pure stuff/command equation.
Throughout the season, Hembree was often pointed out by prospect-rankers in chats and whatnot when asked about the best closer prospects.
I have to imagine that much of his ranking is taking into account how close he is to contributing in a system where everybody worth getting excited about is in AA or below, most well below, and his likely floor of a santiago casilla-type.
His numbers are great (most closing prospects with serious heat walk a lot of guys, but he has a career 4.0k/bb and 1.088 WHIP), he has blown through his competition so far, and could be a cost-controlled closer putting up 2+win seasons when teams are paying through the nose for dependable late-inning guys.
Still, I couldn’t personally rank him above Panik, who I really, really like. I’d put him after #5 and in all likelihood closer to #10, but I could accept the argument that Hembree should be ranked above everybody except Brown, Joseph, and Panik.
Its too bad that each of our cathers in the top 10 has a different question mark about their game
than the others. If only we could combine the three.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Nov 30, 2011 10:22 AM PST reply actions
Joseph and Susac actually seem more and more comparable. Both are projecting as low average, high power guys with good defense, although Joseph probably has more power while Susac will almost certainly offer more OBP. Sanchez they project as a backup at the major league level.
It’s going to be interesting to see what the All C & CF lineup looks like in a few years. Pretty soon they’ll run out of place to stash them all.
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Seriously
Players who are even remotely worth noting:
Catchers: Drew Stiner, Andrew Susac, Eric Sim, Joe Staley, Tommy Joseph, Johnny Monell, Max Ramirez, Buster Posey
CF: Christian Diaz, Gene Benusa, Kentrell Hill, Shawn Payne, Jesus Galindo, Jarrett Parker, Gary Brown, Darren Ford, Francisco Peguero, Juan Carlos Perez, Justian Christian, Tyler Graham.
Goodness gracious.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
Whoops
Forgot Hector Sanchez, too.
That makes 9 catchers and 12 centerfielders.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
I didn’t mention him because he spent the year as a 22 year old at SS and low-A, but sure throw him on there. Swap Burg for Ramirez (suggested by Fla-Giant below) and that’s 10 catching prospects worth mentioning.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
Yes..Perhaps a little old for the level, but still a good defensive catcher.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Technically, Max Ramirez is a free agent – besides the fact that he can’t really play the C postion well enough to be even a decent backup candidate. Swap him out for Alex Burg. Also, Gus Benusa isn’t much of a prospect (he has yet to get out of the AZL)- although he still is relatively young enough to develop something.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I mean, it wasn’t any sort of serious attempt at creating some sort of org depth chart, I just glanced at BB-ref and threw out some names. Point is, we have somewhere between 8-10 catching ‘prospects’ and 10-12 center field ‘prospect’ – certainly shows the drafting strategy over the last few years, I think.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
Really, what I was originally referring to is: imagine a lineup which has Pablo, Posey, Joseph and Susac all in it, with Brown, Belt, and Peguero out there somewhere as well.
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Brown CF
Panik 2B
Posey LF
Pablo 3B
Belt RF
Joseph 1B
Susac C
Peguero SS
Surkamp P
There you go! LOL!
I was actually thinking put Susac in the OF and platoon Posey and Joseph at C and 1B.
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MI is the weakness
Panik is great, but neither Crawford nor Adrianza have the upside of the others on this list.
Susac C
Joseph 1B
Posey SS
Carter Jurica!
"Has anyone really been for even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?"
by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 3, 2011 1:36 AM PST up reply actions
Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2012 Fresno Grizzlies!!!
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
I <3 Alex Burg
After Duvall, he’s my top sleeper.
28 2B, 14 HR for 42 XBH in only 296 PA! THAT IS RIDICULOUS! .252 ISO!
Came with a 9.5% BB-rate, but with a big red flag in a 27% K-rate. Dude also throws out baserunners at a near-elite 41%, and has allowed passed balls at an acceptable rate for a low-level prospect (11 in 47 games, so about 1 PB for every 4+ games started at C).
Dr. B pointed out that a utility guy can play a passable catcher and hit for pop and get on base is an enormously valuable guy to a MLB roster. You can combine two or more roster roles into a single guy. That would be amazing if he panned out!
Now, if he was only a few years younger…
…his numbers in the cal league might mean something. But at 24, hard to say they’re predictive of much in regards to future performance.
Somewhere recently I was listening to a discussion of the new CBA and one of the discussants wondered if increased inter league play is going to force NL teams to rethink roster constructions as they encounter more games where they need a DH. I’d think that if that happens, it’s guys like Burg or A Johnny Monell who could benefit from the change. A guy with pop who can draw walks and at least fake a passable C would be the perfect sort of player for that new roster.
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absolutely
especially if Buster is the everyday C.
I grew to like Chris Stewart, but dude swings a cardboard tube.
This line
I grew to like Chris Stewart, but dude swings a cardboard tube.
He also shoulders a bazooka, which makes him easy to like.
I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Adopted Son:Dan Burkhart , Future Backup To Buster Posey.
Heard this
Buster’s bazooka is rated by scouts as ‘plus’
What is it about Sanchez
that makes him project as a backup? He is projected to have better than average D and his bat looks pretty decent to me. His Cal League numbers at 21 are surprisingly similar to Pablos (look it up), and he also has a MILB career k-rate of less than 15%. That’s a pretty good sign to me. Add that he’s a switch hitter, advanced for his age, can take a walk, and the low offensive expectations for Catchers, and I really do believe that he will be a starter for somebody.
God already did
he made Buster Posey
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
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Kudos, You are a sick, sick man, but you are very good at it -- wcw
can of corn
by jctGamer on Dec 1, 2011 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Hembree's a bit high and Adrianza is a bit low for me
But otherwise I have no qualms with it
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by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 10:34 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I agree about both Hembree and Adrianza. But I think this is pretty obviously the 10 guys. I’d have them in a slightly different order, but I can’t think of anybody else who legitimately belongs in there instead.
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I cannot for the life of me understand the Adrianza love. Maybe I am not straw hatty enough but he looks like all glove no bat. Don’t we already have one of those?
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
Better glove than Crawford even, and he hit .273/.352/.434 this season, including .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances in San Jose. He hit better than expected, while playing predictably excellent defense, so his stock is higher this year than last.
Double-A Richmond will be a huge test for him next year, but for now I think the general consensus on him is “cautiously optimistic”.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
I’ve come to the personal decision that numbers in San Jose don’t mean much. Plus, he put up those numbers with a decreasing BB% and a .361 BABIP.
Basically, Cal League stats need to be really dominant to get me excited. Like wRC+ north of 130 type of dominant. That’s not to say Ehire isn’t a decent prospect, just that those slash lines don’t do much to make me think he’ll ever have a passable bat.
by BestHyperboleEver on Nov 30, 2011 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
Passable for a shortstop? It seems quite likely to me. Last year there were half a dozen starting shortstops in the majors with OBPs under .300, most with little power.
Your description encompasses:
1. Alcides Escobar. Who put up pretty similar numbers to Adrianza in his 22-year-old season (119 wRC+). But he did it at AA and MLB.
2. Ian Desmond. Who spent his 22 year old season in high A like Adrianza and put up a similar wRC+ (117). But he did it in a much less offensively environment with a higher BB% and lower BABIP.
So the questions are, first, whether or not you consider those players passable with the bat, and second, if there is much reason to believe Adrianza has a decent chance of being as good/better than them.
Look, I want Adrianza to be good. I really do. But it seems like we’re squinting pretty hard here. Hopefully he does well at AA and prove me wrong.
by BestHyperboleEver on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
Adrianza’s 22 year old season hasn’t happened yet, but it will almost certainly begin in AA. He turned 22 last Aug. 21, about 10 days before the end of the season.
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Actually, Desmond was also 21 in A+, and he did put up similar numbers in the Carolina league, so that does work. His bb rate was higher than Adrianza’s but they were close. He also had slightly higher K rates. That was Desmond’s third partial go round in A+ ball, having spent 92 games there in his age 20 season and 55 in his age 19 season. His age 19 season is fairly similar to Adrianza’s as well, albeit with a much higher K rate and lower bb rate.
They’re actually pretty similar in some ways. Desmond’s always had contact troubles, and they certainly have exposed him in the majors. And Adrianza’s K rates climbed last year so that’s something to keep an eye on.
One thing I would say about Adrianza is I don’t think he’s a great candiate to be a switch hitter, as he’s not the kind of guy you really want maintaining two different swings. And to make matters worse, my impression when I saw him was that he looks a lot better hitting from the right hand side, which isn’t great (but does join a recent Giants tradition, following Linden and Ortmeier).
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CRAWFORD AND ADRIANZA
PLATOON BUDDIES FOREVA!
It also encompasses Orlando Cabrera and Ronny Cedeno; and Paul Janish, who started 90 games, and Rafael Furcal, who started 85; and Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez, who did bring a little power to the table but remain horrible hitters. The standard for being a starting shortstop in the majors is really, really low these days.
Adrianza doesn’t do anything particularly well at the plate but doesn’t do anything particularly badly either. Scouts have always liked him. He seems reasonably promising to me — moreso than about five of the guys ahead of him on the list, actually.
I only looked at “qualifying” SS. The complete list under .300 OBP was Escobar, Desmand, Gonzalez and Betancourt.
I just think people overstate the “for a short stop” thing. It certainly is a different standard but there aren’t many teams that can get away with an Escobar level bat.
Regardless, my point wasn’t that Adrianza was crap. Just that a little extra power and slightly above average numbers in the Cal League isn’t really enough to get me really excited. There are just too many Culbersons and Kieschnicks for me to give them much weight.
by BestHyperboleEver on Nov 30, 2011 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
but there aren’t many teams that can get away with an Escobar level bat
It was interesting watching the playoffs to see how bad the SS play was for the best teams in baseball. Tampa Bay probably had the worst SS play in the major leagues, and until they picked up Furcal, St. Louis was pretty close by and Milwaukee wasn’t a whole lot better (though they at least got a few dingerz). Arizona spent the second half of the year with Willie Bloomquist manning the position. Detroit and the NYY both sacrificed Defense at a premium defense position to get good bats in the lineup. Really only Philadelphia and Texas got solid two way play from the position.
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Seriously
Another reason why Jose Reyes is worth the investment, and the risk. With an elite catcher and SS to go along with their pitching, the Giants would have such a ridiculous advantage over other teams.
Better glove than Crawford even
I don’t think that’s true. Adrianza certainly has better range than Crawdaddy, but not a better glove – and Crawdad’s arm is noticeably better than Adrianza’s.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Though range is a pretty crucial element in a SS defense (and I’ve assuming that the poster meant “glove” idiomatically, rather than specifically referring to surehandedness).
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Agreed. My point was just that, when you look at the entire package, Adrianza is not very likely to be a defensive upgrade from Crawford. If he’s going to supplant Crawford on the depth chart he’s going to have to be able to show that he’s a better major league hitter.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Agreed
…on both points.
Paying Willie Bloomquist $4.6 million, the rumored amount of the Giants' offer, is a bad idea. The whole idea of letting Bradon Crawford run free at shortstop, bat be damned, is to get top-notch defense at rock-bottom prices and spend the cash on offense. Not on Willie Bloomquist.
-El Lefty Malo
If Crawford is up for 3 years in the majors while Adrianza stays in the minors and neither progresses beyond great glove, weak bat, Adrianza will get his shot simply because Crawford will eventually hit arbitration and Adrianza will be at league minimum salaries for 3 years.
But, if that scenario plays out, and we don’t get a major upgrade at SS, I may have to shoot myself.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
you'll take Alex Gonzalez and like it
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
Kudos, You are a sick, sick man, but you are very good at it -- wcw
can of corn
“Please, sir; another bowl of gruel?”
Paying Willie Bloomquist $4.6 million, the rumored amount of the Giants' offer, is a bad idea. The whole idea of letting Bradon Crawford run free at shortstop, bat be damned, is to get top-notch defense at rock-bottom prices and spend the cash on offense. Not on Willie Bloomquist.
-El Lefty Malo
Well when it comes to flawed prospects, it’s always good to double up!
I would point out that we’re in an environment where Clint Barmes (with his career 78 OPS+) just got $11 million, along with some of the other SS or MI contracts that have been handed out this month.
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Based on what I have seen in his MiL numbers I would be thrilled if he turned out to be Clint Barmes.
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
Ok. Let’s go through that.
Here’s Clint Barmes minor league lines:
Age 21 NWL/Sally .248/.332/.340, 9% BB rate, 14% K rate
Age 22 Sally/Carolina .252/.325/.355 7% BB rate, 12% K rate
Age 23 SL .272/.329/.436, 6% BB rate, 15% K rate
Age 24 PCL .276/.316/.394, 4% BB rate, 12% K rate
Age 25 PCL, .328/.376/.505 5% bb rate, 10% K rate
Now consider that Adrianza turned 22 in August. His age 19 season he put up a .660 OPS season in the Sally with a 9.4% bb rate and a 15% K rate. In other words, a season nearly identical to Barmes’ first season with two key differences: about two thirds of Barmes’ year was spent in a lower level league (the NWL), and Barmes was two years older.
Adrianza’s age 20 year season (in the Cal League) was similar very similar to Barmes age 22 season (Barmes had the better K rate, Adrianza the better BB rate, a trend that would continue) but with the same caveats: Barmes spent half the year at a lower level and was still two years older.
Last year Adrianza’s injury caused him to repeat a season, but he’ll still head to AA a year younger than Barmes did. In essence, the only year Barmes ever had in the minors that was in any way more impressive than the line Adrianza has been putting up was his repeat year in Colorado Springs (on a short list of the greatest hitting environment in the minors) at age 25.
So why, based on Barmes MiL numbers, would you think Adrianza has such a poor chance of emulating his major league career.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 30, 2011 12:12 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The big difference between Barmes and Adrianza at this point is that Barmes was able to make it to the majors and be at least a serviceable utility guy for the last 7-8 years. I just don’t see Adrianza being able to stick in the majors. I would love to be wrong but at this point (in his albeit short career) he looks like Crawford light.
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
The question is, had you been judging Barmes’ prospects after his second minor league season, when he was about a career .670 hitter in the lower minors as a college draftee, would you have been able to see him sticking in the majors? It seems to me your entire argument is, well Barmes has already done, but I haven’t seen Adrianza do it yet.
By the way, the hot off the presses 2011 ZIPS projections has Adrianza as a slightly better major league hitter this year than Crawford.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
You are right.
My argument is flawed. Would I have looked at Barmes after his second MiL season and seen him sticking in the majors? Nope. Do I look at Adrianza or Crawford and see them sticking in the majors? Nope but I want to be wrong.
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
Grant is right though...
number 10 in this system isn’t a huge reach.
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
Each year, I warm up to Adrianza more and more
Last year was very encouraging, hopefully he can survive the AA jump.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
I'm probably higher on him than most
But he’s young and a very good defender at SS. Add to that a polished plate approach and how low replacement level is for SS and I think he has the upside of an average regular
Read Me At: Twitter/Blog/MLBBonusBaby /Giants Nirvana
by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 3:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think there's a legit case that can be made for Osich in the top 10.
That would probably drop one of Pegs/Adrianza/Sanchez off depending on who’s compiling the list.
+1
You took the words out of my mouth. Osich will surely jump into the top 10 should he remain healthy and show anything close to what he did in the Pac 10 in 2011 during the 2012 season. I had Adrianza out of my top 10, but had all of the other 9 guys that BA had with Osich making up the 10th name.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I have him at 5 (which is really high), and Pegs at 8, with Adrianza at 11.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think I could go that high Osich even if I had reason to believe his arm is good to go, because i think he’s stacked up enough of an injury history to make it really likely he’s a reliever going forward.
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Yeah definitely
It seems like the two biggest gaps in the system are between 1-2 and 10-11
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by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 3:25 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah and I’m not sure I’d include 1-2, because I think you can make a case for Joseph over Brown if you really wanted to (protip: age).
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Joseph's age is drool-worthy.
It’s the reason I love him as a prospect.
I’d think he’s one of the best under-21 catching prospects in the game. Gary Sanchez is a worse defender than Montero and has almost no chance of sticking at C.
Anybody else you can think of who is a better C prospect than him under 21? Of course Mesoraco and D’Arnaud are better overall prospects, but they are significantly older.
Agreed
Although personally I’m a bit cautious on Joseph. IIRC he did most of his damage in the Southern part of the Cal league and like with Peguero his approach could hinder his in game power. I think he has to be #2 by default but I could see him needing 2 full years at AA (though he’d still be age appropriate for that level)
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by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 5:26 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I actually have him 3 after Panik, but I could certainly see him at 2 and I wouldn’t be flabbergasted if people had him at 1.
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I actually have the 2-3-4 as Joseph/Adrianza/Panik
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by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 7:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yep. Although I may re-consider given that more people seem optimistic about Panik remaining at SS
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by Gobroks on Dec 1, 2011 12:31 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Panik’s relative youth and his bb/k of >1 have me sold on him. I’m more convinced that he’s going to be a solid big league regular than anybody else in the system, though Brown gets my 1 vote because I can see a higher ceiling.
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Do you see him as a shortstop or a second baseman?
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by Johnny Disaster on Dec 1, 2011 7:52 AM PST up reply actions
Joseph’s a bit high to me. I’d actually probably swap him with Peguero. I also wouldn’t have Susac so high, but it’s known that I’m not about potential as I am about production, and Susac needs to prove to me that he’s healthy and will produce amongst the pros.
I still don’t get the Adrianza love, after all this time, either. And to the comment that he has a better glove than Crawford, all I have to say as a guy who has watched both in the minors in person for years:
Ha.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Nov 30, 2011 11:34 AM PST reply actions
Fair enough. I have seen neither in person, so I was only recalling reports I had read earlier. Also, I’m actually not particularly high on Adrianza (he’s 12th on my list), I was just trying to explain why some others are so high on him.
I can’t get past Peguero’s walk rate. I’ve tried so hard, but I can’t. He hasn’t had a walk rate over 4% since 2008. Last year, there were 306 players with at least 250 plate appearances in the majors, and exactly 3 players had a walk rate of <4% and a wRC+ of >90: Reed Johnson (266 PA, 5 BB, 120 wRC+), Vlad Guerrero (590 PA, 17 BB, 95 wRC+) and Endy Chavez (274 PA, 10 BB, 98 wRC+).
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
Actually, now that I look at it, I think Endy Chavez is a reasonable expectation for the type of player I expect Peguero to become. Career .274/.313/.373 hitter, +12.2 UZR/150 with a +6.9 UZR/150 in center, 7.8 career fWAR with a peak of 3.1 WAR in 2006. Useful player to be sure, but is our system so weak that a likely 4th outfielder is the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in our system?
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 30, 2011 11:48 AM PST up reply actions
Endy Chavez is a great comp for Peguero, actually.
As for your finale question, I’d have to say yes, that is the sum of it.
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Brown, Panik, Joseph, Susac, and Surkamp are all projected starters
Except for Surkamp, they are all probably farther from the majors than Peguero (Brown’s the only one who might not be), but their skillset and stats so far suggest superior performance. Not to mention that they are for the most part relatively young – Brown and Panik not so much, but both of those guys are college players who are just coming into pro ball and should advance quickly – while Peguero is already 23 and doesn’t project to move particularly fast.
Meanwhile Adrianza, Hembree, Crick, and possibly Sanchez have similar questions and similar upside – Hembree’s closer to the majors than Peguero but is a RP, Adrianza and Crick are very far away but have significant upside, and Sanchez is close and has upside but serious questions about his athleticism and work ethic, not to mention his intermittent power and plate discipline making him difficult to evaluate.
Peguero looks to me like a guy with one great skill (contact) two good skills (power and defense) but one terrible, awful, no-good skill in plate discipline. I’m not convinced it will keep him from being a successful player, but he actually needs to improve his walk rate as he progresses up the ladder – not an easy task, and it’s certainly very unlikely that he will begin a select group of players who are successful in the modern era while being so aggressive. He’s not nothing, but I would be very willing to part with him if someone else thinks he’s worth a player of real value.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
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I would say that Brown, Joseph, Susac, and Panik all have starter ceilings, but there are certainly people out there who believe that Brown and Panik are future utility guys, and Joseph will never have the discipline to stick in the majors. Peguero’s ceiling is likewise a starting OF, but the plate discipline is a major red flag. He fits in with the rest of that group. they all have weaknesses. Brown, at least, according ot BA was 60 Hit, 40 Power, 70 D, 80 Speed, and Peguero probably falls roughly similar into all of those numbers except speed (probably more of a 70).
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Which is why the traditional scouting categories and the lack of a plate discipline category
is so flawed.
Scouts undervalue plate discipline, but I think it’s important to note that it’s something that can be learned, developed, and improved, and thus not really in kind with the physical tools that scouts are evaluating. It’s a skill, I guess, rather than a tool.
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+1
Peguero looks to me like a guy with one great skill (contact) two good skills (power and defense)
You need to swap out power with speed. Frankie Pegs has never exhibited even average power (I suppose you could say that he has average power for a CF), which is one of the reasons why I’m not high on. but his speed is well above average – if not plus .
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Though scouts have always liked his power potential (as have I). I mostly think his lack of plate discipline is hampering his ability to develop his power. But the ball does jump off his bat in BP.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Agreed
I think he needs to focus on pitches he can drive rather than pitches he can make contact with to tap into his raw power. Of course that’s much easier said than done
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by Gobroks on Nov 30, 2011 5:23 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Not that I'm going to diss the one guy that I seem to overrate compared to others here...
…but people have also always liked the power potentials of Rafael Rodriguez and Wendell Fairley.
And Ehire, for that matter.
That said, Peguero’s ‘power’ is a line drive sort of situation. He won’t get a ton of home runs, but he can get a LOT of doubles and triples (helped by his speed). And his Richmond XBH% was 26.1%. One in four hits going for extra bases isn’t bad. It’s not elite, but it isn’t bad at all.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Nov 30, 2011 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah and certainly Peguero has shown much much more game power than either of those two (whose minor league records are nearly Burrissesque). I think a 15 – 20 hr ceiling is not out of he question for Pegs if he’d show an approach that hunted for balls he can drive.
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Burrissesque!
Nicely done, Roger.
Paying Willie Bloomquist $4.6 million, the rumored amount of the Giants' offer, is a bad idea. The whole idea of letting Bradon Crawford run free at shortstop, bat be damned, is to get top-notch defense at rock-bottom prices and spend the cash on offense. Not on Willie Bloomquist.
-El Lefty Malo
I saw Adrianza make four errors in a game this year ...
But he was a 21-year-old shortstop who finally added extra-base power to his on-base game, he can at the very least stay at the position, and he’s in the bottom of a top ten for a team with a weak system. What’s not to get? Seems very fair.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 30, 2011 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
As many here would, I don’t put a lot of faith in extra-base power added in a second season at San Jose.
Just like how I’m skeptical when nearly half of Tommy Joseph’s home runs came in games at the home run friendly southern division parks. Nearly a third (7 of 22) came in just 7 games in Lancaster alone.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Nov 30, 2011 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
My question for you Brute is this: why do you prefer present production over potential? Browsing thru BRef’s historical leader boards it seems clear to me that production by itself is just not terribly predictive of future success. That’s particularly true of traditional, triple crown sorts of leaderboards. Feels like we’ve been arguing about the Kevin Pucetas (to pull one name out of a hat) for yars.
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by Roger on Nov 30, 2011 12:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s not so much that I prefer production over potential, it’s that I prefer production WITH potential over potential by itself.
For every Kevin Pucetas/Kevin Frandsen/Todd Linden, there’s been a Tim Alderson/Wendell Fairley/Matt Graham/Rafael Rodriguez that the potential people have loved (and I admit, I loved Alderson at first, too) who faltered.
It does need to be both. A relatively high draft pick is a worthwhile reputation to note, but Susac has two red flags: A.) Injury. Not that those aren’t able to be overcome, particularly the injury he had, but not all injuries are recovered from fully or quickly. B.) Drafted lower than predicted. Albeit not everyone predicted it, but many thought he was a first round pick. He fell to the back end of the second round. That’s a fairly serious fall in expectations, and the ‘Team must know something we don’t’ is a fairly vague argument, but I think it applies.
I want to like him, but a second-round draft status with a couple of red flags will keep him out of my Top 10, unless it’s a REALLY weak Top 10. I don’t think it’s that weak.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely production over potential is the goal, but you must admit that many players who go on to be very productive major leaguers were not always productive minor leaguers?
Really the one thing I would take exception to with your comment is the ratio:
For every Kevin Pucetas/Kevin Frandsen/Todd Linden, there’s been a Tim Alderson/Wendell Fairley/Matt Graham/Rafael Rodriguez that the potential people have loved (and I admit, I loved Alderson at first, too) who faltered.
Most of the draft from at least the 10-50 rounds are polished college guys with middling tools who do very well in the lower leagues. I’d guess the NWL, NYPenn leagues have 100 or more of those guys every year. But the real Wendell Fairley types — those whose tools are so impressive to scouts that they are taken in the top rounds and then fail miserably? There’s a handful of those guys every year. I don’t think it’s remotely close to a 1:1 ratio. In fact, I don’t think it’s 10:1. I think it’s much much higher than that.
I guess i’d also take exception with your categories. Todd Linden belongs more in the second group than the first (high draft/scouting pick whose minor league production was mostly pretty pedestrian); while I think Tim Alderson, though a first round pick was always more of a solid production pick than a high ceiling guy. And Matt Graham was always a bit of a McCCC phenomena I think. Certainly not a guy whose tools were setting the scouting community at large afire.
Anyway, to be young, tooled up, and highly productive is indeed the goal, but if we’re looking at players who only have two of three I’d rather they be young and tooled up.
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by Roger on Dec 1, 2011 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
IMO, production should only weigh in as prospects progress to higher levels if only for the reason that they are usually older and much, much different physically than they were in lower levels. Stats/production from the DSL, AZ rookie league, NW league, and (to a lesser extent) low-A Augusta shouldn’t weigh in too much in evaluations of prospects — especially younger prospects. High-A, AA and AAA stats matter much more in evaluating prospects.
"When the Giants call up a 21-year-old Venezuelan catcher who started the year in San Jose, was hitting well with poor plate discipline, but wasn't on Baseball America's preseason list of the organization's 30 best prospects, only good things can happen."
Congratulations, Hector!
I agree with that, although I also would add that I’ll value players who have shown both tools and decent production at higher levels (considering always age, of course) higher than I will tools only players at lower levels.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
This also the time of the year I like to think back on the recently graduated talent from the farm:
2005: Matt Cain
2006: Brian Wilson Jonathan Sanchez Fred Lewis
2007: Nate Schierholtz, Tim Lincecum
2008: Pablo Sandoval Sergio Romo
2009:
2010: Buster Posey Madison Bumgarner
2011: Brandon Belt
Some others:
David Aardsma Joe Patterson, Clay Hensly Francisco Liriano
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Nov 30, 2011 12:04 PM PST reply actions
Don’t worry, this list will look a lot better once they trade Matt Cain.
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Pretty good list.
I think Adrianza is too high, but then again, is there really such a thing?
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by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 30, 2011 2:10 PM PST reply actions
Maybe Adrianza Being #9
Has more to do with the lack of depth for prospects in MLB and less to do with the Giants.
All y’all need to subscribe to Baseball America, but I’ll offer some tidbits from the reports …
Brown: Explosive bat speed.
Joseph: Short, direct swing; looks like he’ll say at catcher.
Hembree: Fastball has explosive movement.
Panik: Terrific bat control.
Peguero: Ball jumps off bat; power still emerging.
Susac: Plus power.
Surkamp: Fastball sits upper 80s, touches 91 mph.
Crick: Fastball in low 90s, touches 97 mph.
Adrianza: Can be star defender but long swing from left side
Sanchez: Solid defender.
Surkamp velocity...
Wow… that’s the best reports of his velo I’ve seen recently.
Hmm… Fangraphs has him under 90 for all 6 starts last year except the last start where he barely touched 90. On the other hand, it was a loong season for him last year. He may have had a touch of fatigue. If he can touch 91 regularly, then that’s a pretty big deal.
Such beautiful superlatives. Love it.
Especially Brown/Joseph/Hembree/Panik/Peguero
But especially Brown. I do believe that he will hit for power and have a .150+ ISO in the majors. Guys like Michael Bourn and Peter Bourjos didn’t have anywhere near the # of XBH Gary had (dude had 61!) at any level, ever. Ever.
Granderson, Ellsbury, and Sizemore had more similar levels of MiLB production. That’s pretty sweet company. And if I’m remembering correctly, Brown actually had a much better season than any of them had. cal league mirage, possible. But he was playing 1/2 his games at San Jose, and the dude is fast enough that he can (and did) stretch some singles to doubles.
Bold prediction: Gary will be one of the very best hitters in the EL next year. Top 5 if not Top 3. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up with the highest wRC+ among all qualified EL hitters in 2012.
Just read Projecting Power
It’s an article about the different types of power prospects have.
The article differentiates raw power from present(usable) power and talks about projecting power.
Raw power is broken down again into brute strength(McGwire) vs. bat speed(Bonds). Both of these types of raw power should be evident during batting practice.
Usable power is the power a prospect shows in-game. Raw power often doesn’t project to in-game power and he talks about why (contact and approach).
Finally he talks about power projection and runs through several prototypical player types that project well and some that don’t project well.
It raises the next question: What about the Giants’ prospects?
What kind of power does ToJo or Sanchez or Oropesa have? What about Brown or Panik or Peguero?
ToJo is more brute strength, where Sanchez, Brown and Peguero are more about bat speed.
I haven’t seen Panik or Oropesa in person.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Read My Blarrrgh...er, um....Comic. That doesn't really come across so well when said sarcastically. The Lunatic Fringe•
by BruteSentiment on Nov 30, 2011 9:53 PM PST up reply actions
Panik is a bat speed guy. Oropesa is one of those rare guys that has both brute strength and bat speed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Really? He (Oropesa) looks like a guy who just sells out for the long ball to me. He doesn’t let the ball get deep on him at all.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Less than solid mechs don’t mean that he doesn’t have well above-average strength and bat speed. I’ve seen around 10 clips of Ricky in action (college and Cape Cod League) and I don’t see a guy that chronically has to cheat in order to generate bat speed and power – or to catch up to pitches. He’s very strong and athletic with lots of fast-twitch muscle fibers.
Check out this clip from last spring. Looks like great bat speed to me and he consistently lets the ball get deep in this AB:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdeiMp_1nWU&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Here’s an even better one of him hitting a single up the middle, a HR to CF and a single to LF off of UCLA RHP Adam Plutko and LHP Mitch Beacom in a game from March 2011:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91BqUosceuA&feature=youtube_gdata_player
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Hey those are the same! (Well, technically the first one is the same as the first few minutes of the second one). yeah, I can’t say that I saw anything there making me change my mind about him.
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MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Oh, I see now that the first clip is a subset of the 2nd. Well, here’s another clip of him from the previous night’s game against #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole. That looks like a mid-90s FB that Oropesa lets get very deep into his wheelhouse before he pounces. What “sell out” are you seeing that I don’t?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlaumrGkl8k&feature=related
Here’s another clip from 2010:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n038SduvNAg&feature=related
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Well, generally speaking, swings that produce HRs tend to look pretty good so I don’t think they’re great examples (and given that last year those swings accounted for all of 7 of his 208 ABs I really don’t think they’re great examples). That said, given that we’re looking at compressed video, and in the case of the PA against Cole we’re far away and behind him it’s pretty hard to have any idea of where he’s striking that ball and how fast his batspeed is. But in all of the above cases it looks to me like his swing is long and he starts it pretty quick when he swings.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
good points
but I think the hitch that relates to his contact issues is the way he pulls his elbows back (as in ‘cocking’ his trigger) before swinging forward. That no doubt adds time to his swing, and forces him to swing earlier than he should have to, which would make him susceptible to swing and misses and not having enough time to identify offspeed stuff.
Not as easily correctable as just opening up Brandon Belt’s stance, but I have hope they can change his habits a little bit so he doesn’t have such a slow trigger.
But even if HR swings tend to be the very best, you can either have bat speed or you can’t. His swings, even if they might a handful of his very best over an entire season, it doesn’t change that he has been able to demonstrate pretty exceptional bat speed (and make contact with it against likely future big leaguers a la Beacom, Bauer, and Cole).
His bat, at least to my non-expert eyes, looks really fast. Watch some of Brandon Crawford HR swings, and the difference is stark. Even when crawford caught up with a 95MPH fastball in a sept game at ATT park where he hit a triple (and his famous Grand Slam), his bat is clearly visible throughout the movement and seems to scoop and throw the ball as opposed to the ball exploding off the bat like Ricky’s HR swings.
I think he has such amazing bat speed that he has been able to get by despite a hitch at the beginning of his swing that would keep most guys with average bat speed from making hard contact without getting lucky. If they can change his stance so he doesn’t have that “cocking back” trigger, and I have to imagine his contact rates and overall hitting ability/potential would improve dramatically as he would have that much more time.
But even if HR swings tend to be the very best, you can either have bat speed or you can’t.
Well, I’d disagree with that. Hitting HRs means timing the pitch well and having the strength to power it (thus the conversation on the difference between pure strength power and bat speed power).
For instance, one reason why scouts have always been low on Paul Goldschmitt is that they’re generally unimpressed with his bat speed. I have to say that his major league ABs against the Giants looked good to me, but that has always been the knock on him in the minors, even as he was racking up HR totals that led the entire minor leagues. Heck I was watched my 80 something year old coach in JC hit a BP HR off a 94 MPH fastball, but Pete wasn’t demonstrating his bat speed to us. He was demonstrating that if you get a pitchers timing down you can hit him.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Yeah
I thought line drives were ideal and HRs were accidental – fly balls that carried out of the park, but generally speaking LD>FB, so you want to hit liners because it’s typically more effective.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I wasn't saying that hitting a home run = premium bat speed
My point was in agreement with what you said.
Any guy can hit a home run, and any home run swing will look pretty good.
I was arguing that even if we take that Oropesa’s HR swings were his best, they demonstrate good bat speed.
Agreed
That is a helluva swing; it might be the quality of the video, but it’s so fast it’s hard to track (whereas most hitters with plus bat speed I can still visually track it in a pinwheel-like motion).
To compare, watch a Brandon Crawford swing. Night and Day.
He does have a weird mechanical hitch at the beginning though, where he pulls the bat back before swinging it. That might be the source of some of his contact problems as it no doubt adds time to his swing to offset his pretty incredible looking batspeed.
I'd agree
Based on his body type, he is pretty big but very long and lean. Kinda like Belt, but looks stronger in his upper body (Belt is built like a pear, and might have more overall strength, but I wouldn’t know. He’s a string bean up top. Get the baby Giraffe some Muscle Milk!).
Looks very athletic; I hope they try him in LF/RF. He has a strong arm but below average hands and reflexes; the outfield might be good for him.
I like the list, but I'd never put a relief prospect that high.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
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He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
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