2011 Giants, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 10:03 AM PST

Here is a look at how the Giants 2011 game by game actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Giants games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5357 which translates to an expected win total of 86.78 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Giants game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5450 or 88.29 wins. The Giants actually went 86-76 on the season. Vegas pretty much nailed the Giants win total, while my simulator thought the Giants should've won a couple of more games. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Giants were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	SF Win Perc	Sim SF Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-29-2011	Randy Wells	Tim Lincecum	CHN	SF	SF	69.419	69.419	68.884	CHN	7	0	7
2	08-26-2011	J.A. Happ	Madison Bumgarner	HOU	SF	SF	69.231	69.231	69.273	SF	1	2	3
3	08-25-2011	Henry Sosa	Ryan Vogelsong	HOU	SF	SF	69.04	69.04	66.017	HOU	3	1	4
4	08-28-2011	Bud Norris	Matt Cain	HOU	SF	SF	66.667	66.667	68.158	HOU	4	3	7
5	06-06-11	John Lannan	Tim Lincecum	WAS	SF	SF	65.636	65.636	68.003	SF	4	5	9
6	07-04-11	Clayton Richard	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	64.789	64.789	61.92	SD	5	3	8
7	09-27-2011	Alex White	Madison Bumgarner	COL	SF	SF	64.727	64.727	62.781	SF	0	7	7
8	06-08-11	Yunesky Maya	Matt Cain	WAS	SF	SF	64.349	64.349	67.862	SF	1	3	4
9	08-31-2011	Rodrigo Lopez	Madison Bumgarner	CHN	SF	SF	63.702	63.702	69.274	SF	0	4	4
10	08-24-2011	Tim Stauffer	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	63.57	63.57	66.477	SF	1	2	3
11	06-23-2011	Brian Duensing	Tim Lincecum	MIN	SF	SF	63.303	63.303	60.45	SF	1	2	3
12	08-09-11	James McDonald	Madison Bumgarner	PIT	SF	SF	63.031	63.031	71.006	SF	0	6	6
13	05-10-11	Ian Kennedy	Tim Lincecum	ARI	SF	SF	62.963	62.963	64.221	SF	0	1	1
14	08-08-11	Charlie Morton	Ryan Vogelsong	PIT	SF	SF	62.756	62.756	61.564	PIT	5	0	5
15	09-28-2011	Drew Pomeranz	Matt Cain	COL	SF	SF	62.756	62.756	60.155	COL	6	3	9
16	04-12-11	Chad Billingsley	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	62.049	62.049	63.755	SF	4	5	9
17	07-09-11	Chris Capuano	Tim Lincecum	NYN	SF	SF	62.049	62.049	62.552	SF	1	3	4
18	09-14-2011	Mat Latos	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	61.538	61.538	59.395	SF	1	3	4
19	09-02-11	Joe Saunders	Matt Cain	ARI	SF	SF	61.464	61.464	66.58	SF	2	6	8
20	08-20-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Jordan Lyles	SF	HOU	SF	61.165	61.165	63.76	HOU	5	7	12
21	04-08-11	Jake Westbrook	Jonathan Sanchez	STL	SF	SF	61.089	61.089	60.864	SF	4	6	10
22	05-11-11	Armando Galarraga	Jonathan Sanchez	ARI	SF	SF	60.861	60.861	67.17	SF	3	4	7
23	04-29-2011	Tim Lincecum	Jason Marquis	SF	WAS	SF	60.861	60.861	55.709	WAS	0	3	3
24	07-06-11	Dustin Moseley	Madison Bumgarner	SD	SF	SF	60.707	60.707	66.005	SF	5	6	11
25	07-05-11	Tim Stauffer	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	60.239	60.239	55.63	SD	5	3	8
26	09-18-2011	Matt Cain	Esmil Rogers	SF	COL	SF	60.239	60.239	46.58	SF	12	5	17
27	06-11-11	Mike Leake	Tim Lincecum	CIN	SF	SF	59.839	59.839	57.397	CIN	10	2	12
28	08-02-11	Daniel Hudson	Tim Lincecum	ARI	SF	SF	59.759	59.759	60.44	ARI	6	1	7
29	09-13-2011	Cory Luebke	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	59.759	59.759	60.303	SF	2	3	5
30	04-23-2011	Tim Hudson	Tim Lincecum	ATL	SF	SF	59.596	59.596	64.954	ATL	5	2	7
31	07-10-11	Mike Pelfrey	Matt Cain	NYN	SF	SF	59.514	59.514	64.596	SF	2	4	6
32	04-09-11	Jaime Garcia	Matt Cain	STL	SF	SF	59.267	59.267	56.605	SF	2	3	5
33	09-03-11	Ian Kennedy	Tim Lincecum	ARI	SF	SF	59.184	59.184	61.072	ARI	7	2	9
34	06-21-2011	Carl Pavano	Madison Bumgarner	MIN	SF	SF	58.592	58.592	68.209	MIN	9	2	11
35	08-10-11	Jeff Karstens	Jonathan Sanchez	PIT	SF	SF	58.592	58.592	64.658	PIT	9	2	11
36	06-17-2011	Tim Lincecum	Graham Godfrey	SF	OAK	SF	58.506	58.506	48.463	OAK	2	5	7
37	04-13-2011	Ted Lilly	Jonathan Sanchez	LAN	SF	SF	58.42	58.42	62.462	SF	3	4	7
38	09-10-11	Dana Eveland	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	58.333	58.333	65.393	LAN	3	0	3
39	05-21-2011	Brett Anderson	Tim Lincecum	OAK	SF	SF	58.159	58.159	53.514	SF	0	3	3
40	08-27-2011	Brett Myers	Eric Surkamp	HOU	SF	SF	58.071	58.071	58.031	SF	1	2	3
41	05-16-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clay Mortensen	SF	COL	SF	58.071	58.071	56.579	COL	4	7	11
42	08-23-2011	Mat Latos	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	57.983	57.983	57.896	SD	7	5	12
43	05-25-2011	Chris Volstad	Madison Bumgarner	FLA	SF	SF	57.895	57.895	66.347	FLA	7	6	13
44	08-30-2011	Matt Garza	Ryan Vogelsong	CHN	SF	SF	57.895	57.895	55.358	CHN	5	2	7
45	06-22-2011	Nick Blackburn	Ryan Vogelsong	MIN	SF	SF	57.717	57.717	61.719	SF	1	5	6
46	08-03-11	Jason Marquis	Ryan Vogelsong	ARI	SF	SF	57.717	57.717	57.879	SF	1	8	9
47	07-19-2011	Rubby DeLaRosa	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	57.356	57.356	64.06	SF	3	5	8
48	09-12-11	Aaron Harang	Eric Surkamp	SD	SF	SF	57.356	57.356	57.313	SF	3	8	11
49	06-26-2011	Fausto Carmona	Madison Bumgarner	CLE	SF	SF	57.173	57.173	64.271	SF	1	3	4
50	06-07-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Jonathan Sanchez	WAS	SF	SF	57.173	57.173	58.314	WAS	2	1	3
51	08-13-2011	Tim Lincecum	Javier Vazquez	SF	FLA	SF	57.173	57.173	57.133	SF	3	0	3
52	04-10-11	Kyle LOhse	Barry Zito	STL	SF	SF	57.173	57.173	55.884	STL	6	1	7
53	09-07-11	Matt Cain	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SF	57.173	57.173	53.64	SD	1	3	4
54	08-19-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Wandy Rodriguez	SF	HOU	SF	56.989	56.989	52.562	HOU	0	6	6
55	05-04-11	Tim Lincecum	Chris Capuano	SF	NYN	SF	56.803	56.803	58.709	SF	2	0	2
56	04-26-2011	Matt Cain	Charlie Morton	SF	PIT	SF	56.616	56.616	57.459	SF	3	2	5
57	06-25-2011	Justin Masterson	Matt Cain	CLE	SF	SF	56.616	56.616	55.273	SF	0	1	1
58	07-08-11	R.A. Dickey	Ryan Vogelsong	NYN	SF	SF	56.427	56.427	60.302	NYN	5	2	7
59	06-03-11	Juan Nicasio	Matt Cain	COL	SF	SF	56.427	56.427	57.24	SF	1	3	4
60	04-06-11	Tim Lincecum	Tim Stauffer	SF	SD	SF	56.14	56.14	49.855	SF	8	4	12
61	07-15-2011	Tim Lincecum	Dustin Moseley	SF	SD	SF	56.044	56.044	55.035	SF	6	1	7
62	09-22-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	SF	55.947	55.947	52.61	LAN	2	8	10
63	05-24-2011	Ricky Nolasco	Matt Cain	FLA	SF	SF	55.85	55.85	61.803	FLA	5	1	6
64	07-20-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	55.85	55.85	54.59	LAN	1	0	1
65	06-29-2011	Tim Lincecum	Ryan Dempster	SF	CHN	SF	55.85	55.85	50.882	CHN	1	2	3
66	08-18-2011	Tim Lincecum	Mike Minor	SF	ATL	SF	55.85	55.85	45.623	ATL	0	1	1
67	08-07-11	Roy Oswalt	Tim Lincecum	PHI	SF	SF	55.752	55.752	57.818	SF	1	3	4
68	09-26-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Ryan Vogelsong	COL	SF	SF	55.654	55.654	52.911	SF	1	3	4
69	05-07-11	Clay Mortensen	Madison Bumgarner	COL	SF	SF	55.556	55.556	61.051	SF	2	3	5
70	04-24-2011	Brandon Beachy	Jonathan Sanchez	ATL	SF	SF	55.457	55.457	65.575	ATL	9	6	15
71	07-22-2011	Shaun Marcum	Matt Cain	MIL	SF	SF	55.457	55.457	60.297	MIL	4	2	6
72	07-18-2011	Chad Billingsley	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	55.457	55.457	51.737	SF	0	5	5
73	07-23-2011	Randy Wolf	Ryan Vogelsong	MIL	SF	SF	55.257	55.257	55.843	SF	2	4	6
74	04-18-2011	Tim Lincecum	Esmil Rogers	SF	COL	SF	55.257	55.257	49.601	SF	8	1	9
75	05-12-11	Daniel Hudson	Matt Cain	ARI	SF	SF	55.157	55.157	53.574	SF	2	3	5
76	08-01-11	Ian Kennedy	Matt Cain	ARI	SF	SF	54.955	54.955	61.205	ARI	5	2	7
77	04-05-11	Madison Bumgarner	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SF	54.955	54.955	50.148	SD	1	3	4
78	06-28-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Doug Davis	SF	CHN	SF	54.853	54.853	53.832	SF	13	7	20
79	09-16-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Alex White	SF	COL	SF	54.853	54.853	51.086	SF	9	1	10
80	04-30-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	John Lannan	SF	WAS	SF	54.751	54.751	52.963	SF	2	1	3
81	09-11-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	54.442	54.442	64.829	SF	1	8	9
82	06-24-2011	Carlos Carrasco	Jonathan Sanchez	CLE	SF	SF	54.442	54.442	55.806	SF	3	4	7
83	09-25-2011	Tim Lincecum	Josh Collmenter	SF	ARI	SF	54.442	54.442	49.757	ARI	2	5	7
84	04-27-2011	Madison Bumgarner	James McDonald	SF	PIT	SF	54.233	54.233	54.042	PIT	0	2	2
85	09-09-11	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	54.023	54.023	57.314	LAN	2	1	3
86	08-12-11	Matt Cain	Ricky Nolasco	SF	FLA	SF	53.596	53.596	52.353	FLA	1	2	3
87	08-14-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Chris Volstad	SF	FLA	SF	53.38	53.38	53.491	SF	5	2	7
88	09-04-11	Daniel Hudson	Ryan Vogelsong	ARI	SF	SF	53.38	53.38	52.44	ARI	4	1	5
89	09-21-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Dana Eveland	SF	LAN	SF	53.38	53.38	52.15	SF	8	5	13
90	05-01-11	Matt Cain	Jordan Zimmerman	SF	WAS	SF	53.271	53.271	50.309	WAS	2	5	7
91	04-17-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Barry Enright	SF	ARI	SF	53.162	53.162	52.397	ARI	5	6	11
92	06-10-11	Travis Wood	Ryan Vogelsong	CIN	SF	SF	53.162	53.162	51.622	SF	2	3	5
93	04-16-2011	Barry Zito	Joe Saunders	SF	ARI	SF	52.941	52.941	52.177	SF	5	3	8
94	06-05-11	Jason Hammel	Ryan Vogelsong	COL	SF	SF	52.941	52.941	49.999	SF	1	2	3
95	06-01-11	Tim Lincecum	Jake Westbrook	SF	STL	SF	52.719	52.719	47.326	SF	7	5	12
96	09-05-11	Madison Bumgarner	Tim Stauffer	SF	SD	SF	52.494	52.494	55.4	SF	7	2	9
97	04-15-2011	Matt Cain	Daniel Hudson	SF	ARI	SF	52.494	52.494	48.287	SF	5	2	7
98	07-28-2011	Tim Lincecum	Kyle Kendrick	SF	PHI	SF	52.381	52.381	56.349	SF	4	1	5
99	05-22-2011	Gio Gonzalez	Jonathan Sanchez	OAK	SF	SF	52.267	52.267	56.121	SF	4	5	9
100	05-06-11	Ubaldo Jimenez	Matt Cain	COL	SF	SF	52.267	52.267	51.416	SF	3	4	7
101	08-21-2011	Dan Runzler	Henry Sosa	SF	HOU	SF	52.038	52.038	51.932	SF	6	4	10
102	07-07-11	Cory Luebke	Barry Zito	SD	SF	SF	51.807	51.807	53.069	SF	1	2	3
103	09-23-2011	Matt Cain	Joe Saunders	SF	ARI	SF	51.691	51.691	54.95	ARI	1	3	4
104	04-11-11	Clayton Kershaw	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	51.22	51.22	51.331	LAN	6	1	7
105	07-24-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Madison Bumgarner	MIL	SF	SF	51.1	51.1	61.692	SF	1	2	3
106	06-12-11	Edinson Volquez	Jonathan Sanchez	CIN	SF	SF	50.98	50.98	55.8	SF	2	4	6
107	09-06-11	Eric Surkamp	Wade LeBlanc	SF	SD	SF	50.739	50.739	47.147	SF	6	4	10
108	05-14-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Doug Davis	SF	CHN	SF	50.617	50.617	51.402	SF	3	0	3
109	06-30-2011	Matt Cain	Carlos Zambrano	SF	CHN	SF	50.617	50.617	49.962	CHN	2	5	7
110	06-28-2011	Barry Zito	Rodrigo Lopez	SF	CHN	SF	50.617	50.617	47.804	SF	6	3	9
111	05-13-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Ryan Dempster	SF	CHN	SF	50.249	50.249	54.857	CHN	4	11	15
112	05-05-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Mike Pelfrey	SF	NYN	SF	50	50	53.607	NYN	2	5	7
113	04-02-11	Matt Cain	Ted Lilly	SF	LAN	SF	50	50	51.141	SF	10	0	10
114	06-18-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	Guillermo Moscoso	SF	OAK	OAK	50	50	46.523	OAK	2	4	6
115	03-31-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	50.495	49.505	45.41	LAN	1	2	3
116	04-22-2011	Tommy Hanson	Madison Bumgarner	ATL	SF	ATL	50.617	49.383	53.732	ATL	4	1	5
117	06-15-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Joe Saunders	SF	ARI	ARI	50.739	49.261	58.763	SF	5	2	7
118	06-09-11	Johnny Cueto	Madison Bumgarner	CIN	SF	CIN	50.739	49.261	55.782	CIN	3	0	3
119	06-04-11	Jhoulys Chacin	Madison Bumgarner	COL	SF	COL	50.739	49.261	54.695	COL	2	1	3
120	05-02-11	Madison Bumgarner	Tom Gorzelanny	SF	WAS	WAS	50.739	49.261	49.736	WAS	0	2	2
121	06-19-2011	Matt Cain	Trevor Cahill	SF	OAK	OAK	50.739	49.261	43.208	OAK	1	2	3
122	07-29-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Dontrelle Willis	SF	CIN	CIN	50.86	49.14	47.984	CIN	3	4	7
123	07-14-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SD	51.1	48.9	57.042	SF	6	2	8
124	07-26-2011	Tim Lincecum	Vance Worley	SF	PHI	PHI	51.338	48.662	45.382	PHI	2	7	9
125	05-20-2011	Trevor Cahill	Ryan Vogelsong	OAK	SF	OAK	51.574	48.426	52.824	SF	1	2	3
126	05-27-2011	Tim Lincecum	Shaun Marcum	SF	MIL	MIL	51.574	48.426	52.077	SF	5	4	9
127	05-26-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Ryan Vogelsong	FLA	SF	FLA	51.923	48.077	53.148	FLA	1	0	1
128	07-17-2011	Matt Cain	Mat Latos	SF	SD	SD	51.923	48.077	47.58	SF	4	3	7
129	04-28-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Jeff Karstens	SF	PIT	PIT	51.923	48.077	47.45	SF	5	2	7
130	06-14-2011	Matt Cain	Josh Collmenter	SF	ARI	ARI	52.494	47.506	49.467	SF	6	5	11
131	07-30-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Mike Leake	SF	CIN	CIN	52.719	47.281	55.925	CIN	2	7	9
132	09-17-2011	Eric Surkamp	Drew Pomeranz	SF	COL	COL	52.941	47.059	40.7	SF	6	5	11
133	08-05-11	Vance Worley	Jonathan Sanchez	PHI	SF	PHI	53.162	46.838	51.769	PHI	9	2	11
134	07-03-11	Ryan Vogelsong	Rick Porcello	SF	DET	DET	53.162	46.838	43.021	DET	3	6	9
135	04-20-2011	Matt Cain	Jorge de la Rosa	SF	COL	COL	53.488	46.512	44.447	COL	2	10	12
136	04-01-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	53.488	46.512	42.026	LAN	3	4	7
137	09-20-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	53.596	46.404	46.12	LAN	1	2	3
138	07-01-11	Madison Bumgarner	Brad Penny	SF	DET	DET	53.811	46.189	48.407	SF	4	3	7
139	05-19-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	54.023	45.977	51.364	SF	3	1	4
140	05-03-11	Ryan Vogelsong	R.A. Dickey	SF	NYN	NYN	54.128	45.872	41.561	SF	7	6	13
141	05-18-2011	Matt Cain	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	54.233	45.767	52.645	SF	8	5	13
142	06-02-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Lance Lynn	SF	STL	STL	54.545	45.455	49.068	SF	12	7	19
143	07-16-2011	Barry Zito	Cory Luebke	SF	SD	SD	55.257	44.743	41.489	SD	3	11	14
144	08-06-11	Cole Hamels	Matt Cain	PHI	SF	PHI	55.457	44.543	49.885	PHI	2	1	3
145	09-15-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Jhoulys Chacin	SF	COL	COL	55.556	44.444	38.913	SF	8	5	13
146	05-08-11	Jorge de la Rosa	Ryan Vogelsong	COL	SF	COL	55.752	44.248	43.82	SF	0	3	3
147	08-16-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	Randall Delgado	SF	ATL	ATL	55.85	44.15	44.064	ATL	1	2	3
148	06-16-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Ian Kennedy	SF	ARI	ARI	56.427	43.573	48.816	ARI	2	3	5
149	05-28-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	Randy Wolf	SF	MIL	MIL	56.616	43.384	53.331	MIL	2	3	5
150	08-04-11	Cliff Lee	Madison Bumgarner	PHI	SF	PHI	56.989	43.011	53.596	PHI	3	0	3
151	05-29-2011	Matt Cain	Yovanni Gallardo	SF	MIL	MIL	56.989	43.011	49.749	MIL	0	6	6
152	08-17-2011	Matt Cain	Jair Jurrjens	SF	ATL	ATL	56.989	43.011	48.012	SF	7	5	12
153	05-17-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	Ubaldo Jimenez	SF	COL	COL	57.082	42.918	45.988	COL	3	5	8
154	04-03-11	Barry Zito	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	LAN	57.265	42.735	42.499	LAN	5	7	12
155	05-30-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Kyle McClellan	SF	STL	STL	58.506	41.494	49.847	SF	7	3	10
156	04-19-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	Ubaldo Jimenez	SF	COL	COL	59.267	40.733	45.94	SF	6	3	9
157	07-31-2011	Barry Zito	Johnny Cueto	SF	CIN	CIN	59.759	40.241	39.697	CIN	0	9	9
158	08-15-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Tim Hudson	SF	ATL	ATL	60.239	39.761	49.142	ATL	4	5	9
159	05-31-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Chris Carpenter	SF	STL	STL	61.464	38.536	39.684	STL	3	4	7
160	07-02-11	Barry Zito	Max Scherzer	SF	DET	DET	61.832	38.168	32.864	SF	15	3	18
161	07-27-2011	Matt Cain	Cole Hamels	SF	PHI	PHI	61.977	38.023	39.287	SF	2	1	3
162	09-24-2011	Eric Surkamp	Ian Kennedy	SF	ARI	ARI	63.57	36.43	40.57	ARI	2	15	17

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Some extra data points...

First let’s break down the Giants season into thirds to see if there was any one particular part of the season where they over/under performed what Vegas thought they’d do.

First third of the season:
Vegas Expected Wins: 28.04
Simulator Expected Wins: 28.91
Actual Wins: 29
Summary: The Giants first third of the season ended within a win of what Vegas expected and almost exactly where the simulator had them at.

Middle third of the season:
Vegas Expected Wins: 28.66
Simulator Expected Wins: 29.19
Actual Wins: 32
Summary: The Giants outplayed their expected win total by around 3 wins during this part of the season. So far they are a little ahead of pace. Let’s see what happened in the last third.

Last third of the season:
Vegas Expected Wins: 30.08
Simulator Expected Wins: 30.37
Actual Wins: 25
Summary: Boom! Season down the drain the last third of the season. The Giants underwhelmed by 5 wins the last third of the season. Both Vegas and my simulator had the Giants wins trending up in each third of the season, but alas it wasn’t meant to be in the last third.

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Now let’s take a look at how the Giants team win totals varied from what Vegas thought they’d be based off of who the Giants starting pitcher was.

1. Tim Lincecum
Vegas expected team record: 19.13 – 14.87
Actual team record: 17-17

2. Matt Cain
Vegas: 18.48 – 15.52
Actual: 18-16

3. Madison Bumgarner
Vegas: 19.12 – 13.88
Actual: 17-16

4. Jonathan Sanchez
Vegas: 10.32 – 8.68
Actual: 9-10

5. Ryan Vogelsong
Vegas: 14.63 – 13.37
Actual: 16-12

6. Barry Zito
Vegas: 3.65 – 4.35
Actual: 4-4

7. Eric Surkamp
Vegas: 2.44 – 2.56
Actual: 4-1

8. Dan Runzler
Vegas: 0.52 – 0.48
Actual: 1-0

Vogelson and Surkamp helped the Giants win a few more games than expected, but the Giants struggled a little more than expected with Lincecum and Bumgarner on the mound and to a lesser extent Jonathan Sanchez.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 10:25 AM PST reply actions

tl;dr

Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.

"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased

"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner

by natteringnabob on Nov 20, 2011 11:40 AM PST reply actions

tmm;du

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Nov 20, 2011 12:30 PM PST up reply actions

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

Paying Willie Bloomquist $4.6 million, the rumored amount of the Giants' offer, is a bad idea. The whole idea of letting Bradon Crawford run free at shortstop, bat be damned, is to get top-notch defense at rock-bottom prices and spend the cash on offense. Not on Willie Bloomquist.

-El Lefty Malo

by Lyle on Nov 20, 2011 11:44 AM PST reply actions