The Insanity of the Giant's Offseason Strategy
by GiantPain on Nov 17, 2011 7:36 AM PST
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PrintIt's no secret that I (and many others) aren't exactly pleased with the way the offseason is progressing. But here, I wish to make explicit a few different aspects of why, exactly, I think that the way the Giants are seemingly approaching their offseason is horrible. We'll first delve in to their misplaced priorities, and then get in to the fantasy world they're living in vis a vis the way the offense is constructed.
The priorities.
They make no sense. The Giants are a team which suffered from a historically awful offense. Any success they did have is because of their pitching staff. Luckily, their pitching staff is all already under team control for next year.
So you'd think that, given that the strength of their team is all guaranteed to return next year while the major weakness of their team is something that needs immediate attention, the choice of which to hone in on would be obvious, right? Which do you think they're going to focus on this offseason?
If you said "the one that they don't have to focus on unless they want to", you'd be correct. That whole offense thing will work itself out.
Actually, that last line isn't sarcasm. That appears to be exactly what the Giants think. Which brings us to...
The fantasy world they're living in.
The Giants (and many fans) labor under a simple assumption: That since their pitching is so good (and will obviously never get injured, another fantasy assumption), they don't actually need a good offense. They just need "enough" offense, combined with "timely hitting" to get by.
The problem, which they do not appear to recognize, is that they do not have "enough" offense, and, really, they don't have anything close to "enough" offense.
See, for instance, their total levels of offensive production, as measured by wRC+, an all-encompassing measure of park- and league-adjusted offensive production. Each "point" of wRC+ above or below 100 is essentially a percentage point above or below the baseball average.
2009: 83
2010: 95
2011: 83
Notice anything there? When the Giants wRC+ hovers in the low 80s, they just can't make it into the playoffs. When it gets into the mid 90s, that's enough to win the division on the last day of the season.
So it certainly looks like, if we assume that the pitching next year will be as good as it's been for the past few years (a dangerous assumption, but one the Giants are certainly going to make), then it looks like they're going to have to boost their offensive production by roughly 10% relative to the rest of baseball.
Now, obviously, this is possible. I mean, look up there, the Giants did that between 2009 and 2010!
And how did they do it then? They got MVP caliber seasons from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres, they got Freddy Sanchez's only healthy season in the past three years, they got Pat Burrell back from the dead, and they replaced Bengie Molina with a healthy and talented Buster Posey, who hit better than anyone had any right to expect.
These are the sort of things that have to happen, all together, for the Giants to have "enough" offense.
So what are the sort of things the Giants are going to be counting on next year to reach the "enough" level of offense?
1) They're counting on Freddy Sanchez, who's had one healthy season of the past three, and who, even when healthy, is an average-at-best hitter, to provide a significant upgrade. This despite the fact that he had a shoulder injury (do you use shoulders when hitting?) and the fact that he'll be another year older.
2) They're counting on Buster Posey, out all season with a massive leg injury, to come back at full strength and be as good as he was his rookie year, and playing a full season without any problems.
3) They're counting on Aubrey Huff, who is old and just had a historically awful season, to be good again. Because they want him to, and because he'll be working out.
4) They're counting on Brandon Crawford, who didn't hit in the majors last year and who never really hit in the miors, to come up and hit enough to justify his glove on the field. Either that or they're counting on being able to sign some veteran for cheap who will provide offensive value.
5) They're counting on Melky Cabrera, who's had one good year in his entire career, to have another one. And they're probably going to play him over Andres Torres, who's had two good years and one average one in the past three, because they've decided they don't like Torres.
And, really, just as egregiously,
6) They're counting on the starting pitching staff, which has suffered no significant in-season injuries for the past three years, to turn in another season where they're healthy and as good as they've ever been. And because they're counting on this, they've decided they don't need any offense.
This is crazy beans.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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This, unfortunately, appears to be the case.
Unless there is some other hidden message behind Schulman’s tweet yesterday about the Giants’ payroll being topped out at $130 million, with all the new spending to be from arbitration increases. Not sure why Henry would be saying that unless he’s gotten some indication of that from the front office.
If true, the only way to add new talent would be through trades or backloaded FA contracts, which wouldn’t work given the type of shorter-term deals they might have been looking at.
So the extent of their offseason improvement efforts come down to . . . . Melky Cabrera. Rainy day fund indeed.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
Baggarly's latest post
indicates that Lincecum’s people may wait until the offers are exchanged in January before engaging in real negotiations. If so, and if Schulman’s $130 million payroll ceiling tweet is accurate about any new money being set aside for arbitration/negotiated increases, then I don’t see how Sabean locks up any free agent this offseason. If he has to wait until January to see how the arb cases and the Lincecum/Cain discussion play out, then what free agents will still be around at the end of January?
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
I read this as:
“The Insanity of GiantPain’s Offseason”
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Seriously though, you’ve got some good points, but I think that you’re assuming way too much off of just 1 trade and a bunch of rumors. Its like reading the first few pages of a long and slow novel and assuming you know exactly how it will play out. I don’t think that the Giants offseason plan’s are how you describe them above. Specifically, as Grant posted on yesterday, I don’t see any way that Sabes and Bochy will hand the starting SS position to Crawdaddy before the end of Spring Training.
As for counting on Buster to come back fully healthy and to play a full season, I think that’s a good bet. He’s young, he’s talented, and the prognosis for a full and complete recovery is very high. His foot and leg have a very high chance of being stronger than before the injury by the time Spring Training starts.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
This is fair
I write only on what appears to be the case. But it appears that way not only through rumors, but also direct quotes from Sabean and Baer about the general strategy they’re pursuing. If they’re lying, then that is what it is.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
Really?
You think the guy that won’t return phone calls because all those other GMs are ganging up on him by sharing information is going to be forthright with the press? While everyone could see a Sanchez trade coming there was no indication from Sabean that he would do so until the ink was set. Sabean is a liar.
Locking Tim up is about getting certainity. Until they know his salary for next year and beyond, they are going to have to be conservative with offers to FA. The same could be said for Cain. It is about more than just next season.
Oscar Wilde may have been a brilliant and talented man, but at the end of the day he was still a cocksucker, just like the Dodgers.
Liar
Hiding and evading telling your future plans does not make you a liar, it often makes you a wise man. There are laws in the business world against profiting from advance disclosure. Why would you let the World know of your plans earlier than when they occur?
Go Giants
Just because it’s wise to lie does not mean you aren’t a liar.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 20, 2011 8:22 AM PST up reply actions
Holding information as opposed to sharing it doesn't make you liar
So I guess this means the Phillies making it past the 1st round of the 2010 post season was a fluke.
I lie of omission is still a lie.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 21, 2011 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
They're not omitting
Larry Baer is saying “we’re not shopping” “we’re looking for a utility player.”
Sabean has said that their #1 priority is their pitching.
Those are precisely the things I wrote this fanpost about, because those things they are saying are crazy.
If they are saying those things and those things are not true, then OK. But that would be a lie.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
Sabes plays things very close to the vest and rarely tips his hand when talking to the press. I’m not saying that you’re wrong with your pessismism, I’m just saying we don’t have a good handle on the Giants’ plan this early in the game. It’s just an educated guess, but I’m fairly optimistic that Sabes will be strongly pursuing either Carlos Beltran or Jimmy Rollins this offseason. They don’t have the $$$ to go after both, but I think they’ll put together a pretty good offer sheet to one or the other using back-loaded contracts.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That may well be
But if so, they aren’t really saying it.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
jonmorosi Jon Morosi
Evans says Posey, Sanchez on track for spring training. May add an outfield bat but doesn’t envision huge changes.
Unless Evens, Sabean, and Baer are all lying to us, there will be no Rollins. Maybe Beltran, maybe.
But I don’t think even just Beltran is enough.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
just Beltran
puts 3 legitimately very good to great bats in the middle of the order. 2/3 of a season from Sanchez and a 1/3 from Fontenot at 2B puts an average bat ahead of them. Huff, Belt, Schierholtz and Cabrera should provide close to average production in at least 2 more lineup spots. 3 very good hitters and 2-3 more average hitters should make for a decent enough offense. Unfortunately they probably won’t re-sign Beltran
Thing A
by sam23 on Nov 17, 2011 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn’t call it lying – just trying to
1. Reduce fan expectations in case the FA search doesn’t go thier way
2. Not tip their hand to other teams that are competing against them for specific free agents
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Im in this line
I think their approach to Rollins, Beltran, and maybe Reyes is this:
They would like to have any of the three players (or two of them) at the right price. I find it very unlikely Reyes would be at the ‘right price,’ but the only way to keep his price from hitting the upper limits is to say they’re out of the race. Wasn’t Schulman’s argument that they think the Mets are going to get him anyway and they don’t want to be used to drive up his price? Given that no Mets people think he will return, that really stinks of bullshit.
They would love Reyes. Everybody knows they would love Reyes. Everybody knows that they were the early non-Mets favorite to sign Reyes this offseason. They’re letting everybody know now that they really, really don’t want to be gouged. I think Reyes is about a 2% chance of happening, and I don’t think that is so bad a thing assuming we can extend Cain/Lincecum for at least another four years.
On the other hand, the market for Rollins right now hasn’t developed; he’s asking five and everybody else is balking. The Giants don’t want to help develop that market, so that if he begins negotiating a contract in their price range, they will jump on it.
Meanwhile, it’s pretty obvious they want Beltran and will be going after him; that much cannot be denied. However, they can mitigate their role in driving up his price by crying poor. I think they will resign him, because he’s the only guy they’d be willing to overpay a little bit because his contract will be shorter, but I think he will have far fewer bidders. Beltran wants to win, thats why he chose the Giants, and after all that time with the Mets I have to expect that he wants to win in an atmosphere with enormous fan support and less irrational scrutiny.
I really think it’s going to come down between Boston and SF, and SF wants/needs him more. Boston doesn’t have unlimited money, and they want to reign in their spending anyway. More importantly, offense was quite obviously not a problem for them, while their pitching was. Outside of Philly, I don’t see any other solid contenders who are going to be really interested in him.
If Beltran returns, I honestly won’t have much worry regarding the offense next year. It should be pretty good.
I also think Beltran
may be happier going against NL pitching, of which he is familiar, although Boston’s otherwise solid “offensive” lineup helps Carlos more than the Giants’ lineup. Of course, all this new interleague play that is being added may neutralize Point A.
Don't believe everything you think.
I have a philosophical disagreement with the Giants banking on Huff returning to form (or something closer to 2010) and assuming that Freddy Sanchez will come back and contribute average production after suffering an injury that could’ve ended his career (and still could). I think assuming Posey to be a 4 or 7-win player is foolhardy, too, but I would rather praise the Giants for finally thinking highly of a young player.
But the GiantPain’s assumptions about the Giants’ hopes for four players (those three plus Cabrera) aren’t just idle speculation. It’s pretty clear that’s the plan. As you propose (and I agree), banking on Posey to produce isn’t delusional (though the degree to which they expect him to produce vs. what we McCoven assume/hope might be wildly incorrect), but as you sort of get at with the whole “this hasn’t played out all the way yet” idea, banking on those other three guys to carry the team is really, really dumb.
I agree with the first pragraph
I am not big fan of the Sanchez for Melkman swap. I strong suspect Sabean pulled a Russ Ortiz move and was too focused on getting not old player out of town and less so on what ws coming back. Another trade this reminds me of was Jack Clark for Jose Uribe. What was coming back was not worth less but it looks a lot like shopping with 2 am beer goggles on. Yes, I know I an old man ( so stay off my lawn!!). Clark-Urbie me made me think of another player from that era though – Jeff Leonard, aka Penitentiary Face aka Hackman. I am old enough I do believe in equal time though so …
By the end of his 27 year old season Leonard had 1207 PA’s a 269/329/390 slash line. ISO of 131, 8.1% walk rate, 17.4% k rate. Compare to Melky’s 3363 PA’s, 275/331/398 ISO of 123, 7.3% BB rate & 12% K rate. Both had been through a few organizations as well. Through by this point the other guy would only fill in CF. Leonard also had never hit 10 or more dingers in a MLB season either.
I still don’t think this move will do well (if nothing else I think Big Head Garko/Ortmeiter/Lewis) the Melkman. My impress of Melky is he is a defensively meh ( at best) CF. But say Melky was to play a lot of RF and some centerfield ( say early in game tell a lead gained in the mid to late innings) then moved to right while doing 15+ hrs north of 290/ 337/ 450 this could be fairly shrewd pick up. And let the early innings in LF be manned by a more stick then glove type ( Velez or Burris type doesn’t count) this might do well in a off season when the options are marginal at best.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2011 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Watch the Melky highlights on mlb.com
For XBH highlights, pay particular attention to the pitch location and types. Watch his defensive plays. All in all, I’m convinced he’s a pretty good player, and I’m happy for the trade. Defensively, he has pretty good range, a great arm, and good hands.
But watch the pitches he hits; it helps that he’s a switch hitter, but he crushes pitches anywhere in the zone, especially low in the zone, and has some great hits on pitches he turned on tight inside and nailed to the opposite field outside. His bat looks quick and strong, and he uses the entire field. He can also run out some infield grounders.
He has a barrel chest and you can see how he could have been heavy before, which no doubt would have slowed him down considerably. If he comes into camp in great shape, I would expect a pretty good season for him, with a 110-125ops+ at the plate and more than acceptable defense in CF.
I was at first pretty mixed and skeptical, but after watching him more, I do think he looks like a pretty good player to start in center during his walk year.
I don't disagree, but that resky reality would like to have a word with you
I have a philosophical disagreement with the Giants banking on Huff returning to form (or something closer to 2010) and assuming that Freddy Sanchez will come back and contribute average production after suffering an injury that could’ve ended his career (and still could).
Philosphize all you want, but the team has $15M+ tied up in those two guys, so they’re not going to assume those guys aren’t going to come back, either. Besides, Belt could be a plan B if Huff returns in 2010 form.
So I guess this means the Phillies making it past the 1st round of the 2010 post season was a fluke.
Its like reading the first few pages of a long and slow novel and assuming you know exactly how it will play out.
It’s more like watching Transformers 1 and 2, then watching 5 minutes of Transformers 3 and concluding that there’s going to be lots of explosions and a bad plot.
The first six innings are overrated.
by apistat on Nov 18, 2011 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 6 recs
It seems crazy to us down here for sure
I’m not sure what they are thinking about up there on grey skull mountain. It could be a plan that involves 3 moving parts and we only see 2 of them. Maybe Sabean is the mastermind behind a great deal that involves us actually getting prospects with some life in them.
What am I saying? The Giants always seem like a homeless alcoholic during the offseason. After spending our inheritance on Zito and that avocado and chicken farm he kept talking about that went belly up, we now are regulated to trying to scavenge on a day to day basis. We’re looking for nickels and dimes to pay for our Popov and Huff fix instead of some money or some clothes to try to get our life straight. When given money, we give into our vices. We literally have to be handed food (ex. Torres) in order to survive. No sense of priorities or future. Maybe our Uncle Buster can bail us out again.
If the money exists, this is not a time to try to win with “just enough” but to become destructive with an incredible rotation and a decent offense. That doesn’t mean spending haphazardly to chase it If a sound business decision that improves the team for the next 2-4 years exists and the only roadblock is money, it should be strongly considered. This team right now is made of glass.
Good post.
Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper, beloved solar powered broadcaster and power hitting coach for the Giants.
by Giant Voodoo on Nov 17, 2011 9:21 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Taking Themselves Out On Players, Especially SS
Is a weird strategy to me when there are obvious needs to improve the offense. “We aren’t in on anybody, we have a 130MM budget.” Why declare this? Sabean has said he won’t be used as a stalking horse (I think first because of Manny R but he said it for Bay/Holliday) but there are some pretty big advantages to being in on Reyes or Rollins – at the right price you might get them! I agree with Fla, I do think the Giants will be in on Rollins, but to publicly bow out of Reyes is pretty weak, if he gets to unreasonable money and years you can throw in the towel then.
The Larry Baer “we’re only raising prices 6%” gambit sounds very false to me. My best friend’s tickets went up 12%, I think Goofus said his went up almost 20%. Maybe the upper deck is only going up a couple points or staying neutral to balance this, but I think a cash grab is on for the meat of ballpark. In the face of the ticket price raises and obvious sellout crowds/merchandising etc this budget talk is frustrating as hell, and the only strategic reason I can see for it is to limit fans expectations. That is a really short sighted – we’ll see if the money grab is really on in a few months.
I think its reasonable to expect Posey to be back, but I agree with your analysis on Freddy Sanchez and Huff. I can tolerate bad O from Crawford which is obviously your buggaboo. If they can get Rollins I’d love that upgrade though. If Sabean doesn’t get involved, even if its just to push the price up for the Phillies, that is a huge mistake.
But your point about the pitching is really good. They actually need to keep on improving it – the PR campaign for Zito is insane. That guy is done. They need to sign or trade for a 5th starter. Sign Eric Bedard for cheap, trade for Chris Volstad, got to do something. Staying put on starting pitching is asking for huge trouble.
Good post, I think the Giants overall strategy is really lacking right now, although I’m willing to see if they bid on Beltran/Rollins or trade for one more bat.
Somehow I instinctively read “bad O” as a nickname for Orlando Cabrera, which confused the heck out of me for a moment.
"Bruce Wayne is the Brian Wilson of Gotham." -DrDC
Totally agree, GP. I also still have the question of what’s the contingency plan if both Cain and Lincecum politely say no thanks to extension talks? Do they sit on their hands and just do nothing and hope to run the same strategy next winter to more success?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 17, 2011 9:58 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Also Agree & A Point On Annual Budget Strategy
I totally agree it is crazy to rule out the most obvious upgrade – you have a super weak position with no viable internal candidate, and there is an impact player FA at that position who has a few questions, but those few questions are also bringing his price down to something that is affordable (i.e. we’re not talking about a Carl Crawford like deal). This wouldn’t be replacing a 2 Win player with a 4 Win player. This is replacing 0 with maybe 5 Wins. I would actually be fine if this is all they did and lived with Huff at first and the current candidates for the outfield spots (Schierholtz, Torres, Cabrera, and Belt).
Also, I never liked that Sabean was spending $70MM – $80MM when the Giants were really bad. It seems they could have “saved” more money in those years. Of course, everything worked out and perhaps if they had done the “right” thing and spent less, maybe they don’t draft Posey or Lincecum. Nonetheless, I think knowing you can spend less in down cycles is a viable rational for spending above budget in up cycles, as many teams are doing these days. I think one problem is the front office has the owners convinced they will always be good and the perpetual budget is never going to drop.
They’re not giving themselves much leverage with Cain or Lincecum, that’s for sure. Or doing much persuade them that the Giants will be a particularly desirable team to play for.
by Evan on Nov 17, 2011 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Pretty mnuch this
They are making themselves the walking argument why and an elite talent ( timmeh in ths case) that wants to compete should stay year to year. It minimizes the lost years on franchise that have lost their way during the player’s prime years.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
by daveinexile on Nov 17, 2011 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
If both Cain and Timmy say no to new contracts to take them beyond their upcoming free agencies then there really is only 2 options. They don’t have the money this offseason to go out and sign a big-name free agent to compensate for the 2 departures. They either let them both play out their contracts and take the comp picks or they trade Cain some time beween now and Aug. 1st, 2012 then turn around and trade Timmy sometime between November 2012 and Aug. 2013.
If I had to guess I would say that Sabes would go the trade route rather than wait for the vagaries of compensation picks.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
They’d get way more in a trade than from compensation picks.
Check out Catch-28.com, a blog about Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants.
Particularly given that Comp picks are going to be changing it sounds like.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
And whatever permutation of staying cheap while raking in $$$ the FO takes . . .
will push our best (Timmy & Matt) out the door. We can only hope there is a major offensive surprise this offseason. Melky is not it.
Don't believe everything you think.
Get Used to It
In the Bonds years, Sabean tried to get hitters on the cheap to fill in around Bonds. This actually worked to a degree, because Bonds was one of the few hitters in the history of baseball that could make the entire lineup better. Now the braintrust is attempting to get hitters on the cheap to provide just enough offense for the pitching. Let’s say they sign Matty and Timmy to extensions. They will be locking them up in the neighborhood of $20 million a year each, so we’ll have 3 players for the next two years (including Zito) making north of $15 million. After the Zito contract expires, we’ll have the Bumgarner, Posey and Panda arbitration and free agent years. Bottom line is, they will be locking up their key players and trying to get offense on the cheap for at least the next six years until, as I understand it, the stadium debt is paid off in 2017. They got lucky with their offense in 2010, but I’m not sure they recognize how lucky.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 11:34 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Yes
The Giants seem to be entirely focused right now on keeping the players they have, with no conception at all that the players they have aren’t good enough.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
Faulty memory?
Sabean tried to get hitters on the cheap to fill in around Bonds
Yes, that’s why Aaron Rowand, Edgardo Alfonzo Moises Alou, Ray Durham, Mike Matheny, and Shinjo were signed so chaeply as free agents and Jeff Kent, JT Snow, Ray Durham, Dave Roberts and Bengie Molina were re-signed to such a cheap contracts during their tenures in SF. Not to mention that Andres Galarrage, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders and Ellis Burks were not exactly under cheap contracts when Sabes traded for them.
You can fault Sabes for not spending his money wisely (and I do fault him) during the Bonds years and for neglecting the draft, but to say that he went “cheap” is just not correct.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Vlad
I was thinking about how he didn’t go after premium hitters in those years.
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Jim] Brower, [Scott] Eyre, [Matt] Herges, [Dustin] Hermanson, [Brett] Tomko, [A.J.] Pierzynski, [Pedro] Feliz, [J.T.] Snow, [Jeffrey] Hammonds, [Dustan] Mohr and [Michael] Tucker—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
I agree that was not a smart comment by Sabes – and the strategy behind it was dumb when you consider the utter fail of many of the names he ticked off. I think he should have gone much harder after Vlad, but iIn the end, I think it was a moot point. IMO, Vlad would have signed with the Angels anyway unless the Giants far outbid them – which Sabes didn’t have the $$$ to do at the time even if he jettisoned most of the guys that he listed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’s difficult to talk about Sabes and “cheapness” because so much of the time his MO has been to find underwhelming talent and then overpay it. But if I can just clear up a few errors in your list, Fla, I’d feel better:
Rowand, signed after Bonds final year
Shinjo, acquired via trade for Estes, not signed as FA, and made only $1.3 mil
Jeff Kent was never re-signed (though he did work under an extension his final three years) and was incredibly affordable for the value, never making more than $6mil
Snow, actually did re-sign very cheaply twice (below $2mil per both times) although he too had played on an extension that certainly paid him well for his value prior to that)
Matheny, 3x$3 mil seems pretty cheap
Dave Roberts never re-signed, he was waived while still playing under his original (horribly overpaid) contract)
Lofton, playing on a 1 year $1mil contract when we acquired him (for all of 6 weeks, probably cost us less than $100)
Reggie Sanders, signed as a FA, not traded for, for 1 yr. $1.075 mil (with an option)
Burks (who was making $4.5 mil a year) and Alou (who we signed for 2 yrs, $13 mil total) both seemed like relative bargains to me.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Thanks
Most of that was off the cuff and Dave Roberts being in the wrong category was a typo. Also, re-signing and signing an extension are the same things in my book. I believe that my main point remains intact. Sabes’s problem is not that he’s cheap, it’s that he spends his money unwisely and almost always overvalues veteran talent and spurns young talent.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Agreed. He pays way too much for fail and bids too little for great. It’s a weird combination.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
It was shocking to me to read that Milky was the first hitter he’d traded for who was in his 20s since AJ. That’s 8 seasons which included (or should have included) a rebuilding phase and the only under 30 year old position player he acquired was Jose Castillo?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Does this include prospects?
If so, that’s absolutely horrendous. No wonder we have a bottom 10 farm.
I don’t know. Either Schulman or Baggs wrote that in their blogs, but now that you mention it they did trade for Darren Ford in that time, and also for Rajai Davis (who was 27 and had been playing in the majors on and off for a couple of years). So I guess they weren’t overly diligent about that stat. Though the overall point still stands: at a time when we really needed to be bringing young, potentially productive hitters into the organization there was very little attempt made to acquire them from outside.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Sad reality makes me Sad.
Sometimes I hear nuggets like this about Sabean, and I’m humbled by how incredibly, outrageously incompetent he can be.
There is a NY Daily News article about Alfonso’s suitors before we signed him, it is pretty horrific. The combination of no due diligence on the Giants part (Coletti led) and the disregard for re-signing Kent was one of the worst mistakes Sabean has made. They didn’t even require Alfonso to have a physical, and the quotes on the Mets reservations about him sting pretty good.
Randy Winn was a nice player for us, but you could also argue he is the definition of average. After the trade and that hot month Sabean paid him almost 30MM over 4 years.
Durham was a good signing on his own, but nothing compared to Kent. Giants paid Durham 40MM while Kent was paid 54MM (and an extra year).
Grissom was one of the best signings Sabean made. 3 years 7MM. Uribe obviously.
Its funny to look back on the Bernard & Neifi Perez contracts and remember being pissed at how much they were being paid: 4.2MM X2 for Bernard, 4.25 for 2 for Neifi. Neifi represents that overpay for mediocre talent streak early on though.
Kent
I think Jeff Kent was going anyway, he was tired of the let Barry be Bonds mentality of the club.
Go Giants
I thought Kent was a Magowan decision that was a direct result of the motorcycle accident/truck washing fiasco. That’s what I’ve always heard. Magowan was sick of Kent just like he was sick of Dusty and gave “Good riddance to bad rubbish!” directives to his subordinates for both of them.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
My take at the time was that Kent was gone no matter what they offered him. I think that he was fed up with sharing the clubhouse with Barry – and wanted to show everybody that he could perform just as well on a team where he didn’t have Bonds to “protect” him in the lineup
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
There were a lot of takes on what Kent was thinking, feeling, or wanting, but I tend to dismiss them all because Kent was an extremely reticent person and more than a little bit of an iconoclast. People who focus on his dislike of Bonds miss a larger point which was apparent throughout his career at every stop — Kent didn’t like ANY of his teammates ever, anywhere. By all accounts, he always sat by himself on team planes and buses, didn’t take part in clubhouse society, and very rarely spoke to anybody other than the media while he was at the ball park. He had famously bad relationships with teammates in New York, Cleveland, LA, and even the famously friendly atmosphere in Houston.
I don’t think there’s convincing reason to believe he wouldn’t have taken the most money offered in any deal.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 19, 2011 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
True, but reading between the lines of his few comments around the time of his free agency, Bonds held a special place at the top of his dislike list. He was disgusted by how Bonds got special treatment in the clubhouse and with his entourage, he disliked that Bonds was using PEDs to increase his HR count and he wanted to go to another team to prove to everybody that he didn’t need Bonds in the lineup to be a top hitter. But, most importantly, and he hinted at this at the time, he wanted to move closer to his home ranch in Texas.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
When he signed with Houston he said he wanted to move closer to his ranch. When he signed with LA he said it was a childhood dream come true. When he retired and came back to the Giants organization he said his time with the Giants was the favorite time of his career.
Players, like most of the rest of us, know how to say the thing that’s expected of them in a given moment.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 19, 2011 9:59 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If an all out effort was made to retain Kent I think it would have happened. Everything you guys outlined makes sense. Ultimately money will take care of a lot of problems. Its ironic in the sense that Kent was a big piece in Sabean’s success (whether you think he was lucky in trading for him or not), and him leaving was a big piece in the descent into the crappy years (and the Lunatic Fringe). Yes, Bonds looms big in all of this. But Kent was a special player and looking back on it, it was a big mistake to let him go.
Agree that Kent isn’t always forthcoming with the media. However, before he signed with Houston, he had the greatest leverage and most opitons of his entire career. We also know that he turned down offers that were in the same, if not better, ballpark as Houston’s – including the Giants offer. Therefore, I’m pretty sure that he was speaking truthfully when he said that he went with Houston to be closer to his house. When the Fodgers deal came around, his options were far more limited (neither Houston or Texas when in on the bidding) and the Fodgers had by far the best offer.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
We don’t know that at all. The only team that said hey had made him a better offer was the Giants and Kent’s agen took the pretty unusual step of publicly refuting that assertion rather hotly. I figured the Giants were just doing cya exercise for their fans. Shea and the beat guys had been heavily intimating in the paper fr weeks at that point the org didn’t wn him back and that that came from the top.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Its seems a lot less crazy
when you accept the notion that they don’t give a shit about winning; they’re content to field a team that only stays somewhat competitive and has recognizable faces that sell animal hats and other crap. The Giants must truly believe that their fans are so insular as to not see through their bullshit. I guess who can blame them, there’s always such a great turnout for their usual tchotchke giveaways. Jose Reyes? Fuck that shit! Brian Wilson Garden Gnomes! I’m like this close to not watching a single game next year. Thank God the 49ers are good again.
The Giants finally won the World Series. Now what?
by jordanovich on Nov 17, 2011 12:29 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Winning the WS was the worst thing that could happen for the long term, as it justifies their strategy of being just competitive enough, hoping to get lucky once in a while. It’s like someone with a gambling problem who every once in a while hits a jackpot.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly
On a bit of a tangent, this ownership group isn’t interested in keeping the Giants’ great power hitting legacy alive at all. They bring Willie Mays and Willie Mac to the ballpark all the time to remind us of the “Bye Bye Baby” teams of the past but then sign guys like Aaron Rowand and tell us “enjoy the pitching and defense!”
The Giants finally won the World Series. Now what?
Bye Bye Baby
I grew up watching those teams, but even Willie Mays said that the Dodgers always seemed to have their number, because they had the pitching. I agree with the pitching first strategy, but obviously you need something more. It’s said that Sandy Koufax burned out so early because the Dodgers’ offense was so anemic he had to pitch a lot of high-stress, 2-1 games. Sound familiar?
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 1:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No
No. You cannot say that winning a World Series is the worst thing for any baseball team to do at all, ever, confined exclusively to the effects of winning that World Series on the team. I know everyone’s rather cynical, and I am too, but complaining about the consequences of winning a World Series is entirely unacceptable.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Process
I will never, ever complain about winning the WS. I waited 50 years for it. My point was that winning the WS by getting lucky validates the wrong process. By then continuing to pursue that wrong process, you are less likely to repeat. Of course, you could be a great organization with all the right processes in place, and still not come away with a championship, which does validate the saying that it’s better to be lucky than good.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
No team wins the WS with the wrong process
By definition, every team’s goal is to win the WS. So if you do it, you used a right process. There is obviously more than one, and different ones for consistent contention or short windows with stronger teams, or whatever. It’s not fair to Sabean to claim he “got lucky” with the WS win but every failure he’s had was a result of him failing. You have to take everything together, which points to Sabean not being the greatest GM, but not being all that bad either. The 2010 Giants didn’t “get lucky” – they put together a great team that did the right things at the right time, and obviously some of that championship was luck (no team wins the Series without some luck), but overall there was a lot of work and good decision-making that you have to give the FO credit for.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Credit where credit is due, and luck when it happens
I’ve already said I agree with the pitching first strategy, and I give the FO credit for that. Where they got lucky was with the offense. Even they would admit they got lucky with some of the acquisitions. Huff was their 3rd choice at 1st base, Burrell and Ross were released by their teams, Torres was a journeyman who all of a sudden started to hit, and Posey came up and hit right away. That’s not a strategy for building a good offense, that’s poking around in the bargain bin and bringing up a rookie (albeit a highly-regarded one, but not all rookies have success right off the bat), and seeing what you get. Given their budget constraints, that may be what they have to do, but the way it came together was luck.
by GiantFaninDodgerLand on Nov 17, 2011 8:09 PM PST up reply actions
Excellent post
There’s no doubt that based on their moves and public statements so far, the FO is counting on a lot of pieces of the puzzle being certainties for 2012 rather than question marks.
That said, GiantPain, if you’re in (metaphorical) sell/hold mode on Freddy, Buster, Huff AND the health of the pitching staff, then that leaves a whole lot more for them to do this offseason than just signing Reyes or Beltran, or someone else. It’s fair to say that in 2011 the Giants were decimated by injuries; everyone being one year older notwithstanding, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the team to be healthier in 2012. We’ll see.
"The definition of insanity is startjng Orlando Cabrera over and over again and expecting different results"--Albert Einstein
It's not that I expect all those things to go wrong
It’s just that it seems like the Giants expect all those things to go right.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
As much as I dislike what the Giants' FO has done
I gotta say they’re not as evil as you’re making them out to be.
The problem with the money is not on Sabean or his staff, who I would assume are the people you are calling out. That’s on the decision-making people, the owners, and while I wholeheartedly disagree with them when it comes to how they spend the team’s revenue (which seems to be “don’t spend it because we like profits”), I cannot become infuriated when a business owner tries to maximize profit. That’s what businesses are for. I’d really like it if they opened the purse strings, particularly because they must be swimming in dough after a pretty well-filled park even during down years was sitting at 40K fans a game and selling merchandise like there was no tomorrow, and from a “I spend my money on this so you spend your money to make it better” standpoint I have personal interest in the team getting better through cash, but I understand the idea that the owners like money. Unfortunate, yes. Insane, no.
As far as Sabean’s apparent plan for the offseason, well, that’s primarily because he has no money. Nor is it reasonable, as Kitspool said just above, to assume that anyone will get hurt any more than it is reasonable to assume anyone won’t get hurt. Contingency plans are a great thing to have when you can afford them, but Sabean can’t exactly be pursing Reyes and Wilson and Pujols to have just in case someone gets hurt. Nor would that be a wise investment – as we saw last year with this team, a spate of injuries (or just a few to key players) will sink a contender, and that’s not just applicable to the Giants. If the Phillies lost Halladay they’d suddenly have to fight for the division. If they lost Utley too they’d almost certainly be out of it. Yet we don’t hear people screaming about the volatility of Philadelphia’s roster – we’re just a little oversensitive because of what happened last year, so we aren’t recognizing that every single team faces this problem. No team can replace star production (which is our pitching staff) with more star production – if they could, they’d trade the backups to fix other holes. Sabean “assuming” the health of the pitching staff is done not out of arrogance or naivety but because if he assumes the pitching staff gets hurt the team is pretty screwed anyway so we might as well dump the season before it starts.
But even if he wanted to stash Edwin Jackson in AAA for depth, he can’t. There’s no money, which once again isn’t Sabean’s fault but on the owners, who can be disagreed with but can’t be called nuts because they want to make money. The primary reason there is no money, however, is on Sabean – poor contracts he handed out in earlier years are hurting his financial flexibility now. If you want to blame him for that, then go ahead – those decisions are on him. Of course, they probably weren’t made with this offseason in mind, so it doesn’t reflect on the sanity of this offseason’s strategy.
Obviously, though, there were mistakes made that we should learn from. We gave way too much money to Zito (declining with mediocre peripherals all along) and Rowand (horribly inconsistent) and we ought to learn from those mistakes. So let’s give a 33-year-old Jimmy Rollins, he of the career 101 wRC+ and serious injury history, over $10M a year for three to four years! That’s learning from our mistakes of handing out big contracts! Or maybe we should sign Jose Reyes to a $100M contract after he came back from injury to ride a .350 BABIP to a career year and also get hurt again! Carlos Beltran’s only 35 and can’t play more than 120 games a year at most, but let’s sign him to a $40M contract while lamenting our propensity for injury and aging team! You can’t argue both sides of the coin – if you’re mad at Sabean for spending too much on Zito and Rowand earlier because they weren’t good free agent targets, you can’t expect him to go after Rollins and Beltran for the same reasons. Reyes is a more palatable target, and TBH if we had the money I’d seriously go after him, but we don’t. That’s largely Sabean’s fault, but overall the offseason isn’t full of players we just can’t afford but make a lot of sense – there are a couple guys who could fit well and we can probably sign, and a bunch of guys whose contracts we’ll be upset about in two years because they prevented us from signing some player that is them two years ago.
Most importantly, this is a good team. This is a team that showed it could handle getting nothing out of C, SS, 1B, and CF and lose two key hitters to injury AND finish over .500. Expecting players who were good not only before, but quite recently, to be good again is not crazy. Doing what you can with what you have is not crazy. The Giants’ offseason plan is not ideal, but given the circumstances imposed by past decisions and current ones, it’s pretty sensible. Above all, no matter what they do, we’ll almost certainly see a good team in contention and it seems hard to complain so excessively about that.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
by quincy0191 on Nov 17, 2011 3:54 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
+1
Quincy couldn’t be righter, it seems to me; and it also seems to me odd to call a team with a $130m budget cheap, and blast the owners. The money was spent badly in a number of cases, obviously, and Zito’s and Rowand’s contracts are around to prove it, as Quincy and Fla-Giant have said. But long-term contracts to injury-prone players such as Reyes and Beltran aren’t wiser than the previous long-term contracts to pitchers with declining peripherals.
Owlcroft said earlier this off-season that the Giants, with normal expectations about injuries, probably needed one big bat to be highly competitive; and we now have one slightly overgrown bat with M. Cabrera, so that to add another good hitter would effectively fill this (admittedly precarious) requirement.
I share the frustration, but can’t share in the damning of management—at least, not yet.
We’ve got no shot at Reyes (never did), but I think we still have an outside shot at Beltran with a 3-4 year, back-ended contract. I take issue with you calling Beltran “injury prone”. Since 2001 here are the number of games he’s played each season:
155, 162, 141, 159, 151, 140, 144, 161, 81, 64, 142
In 11 years, he’s only had one major injury that caused him to miss the 2nd half of the 2009 season and the first half of 2010.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t have a problem with them making money, but I do have a problem with taking themselves out of negotiations early and fixing a budget while raising ticket prices aggressively in the face of (almost) sell outs for the season.
It is a good team though, but they need an extra push whether that is Beltran, Rollins or a trade. Also, I know you were just using Utley as an example, but he has been out a bunch for them. Doc or Uncle Cliffy out would make it hard for them.
Who
Do they have to pull a trade off with though?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:27 PM PST up reply actions
Getting down there right? Our best trade pieces are Romo and Joseph. Lesser pieces are Schierholtz, Rodriguez/Casilla/Affeldt and Hector Sanchez. People would flip out if Romo was traded, but what if he could be turned into Carlos Quentin?
Wouldn't trade Romo
Without the SVs stacked up his market value is lower than his true talent – he just had a historically great RP season (2nd lowest FIP for any RP with IP>30 since 1950, and considering the lack of RP earlier than that probably top 5 all time). After his 2011, he’s worth a top closer package and he won’t bring one. I also don’t think people would care that much if Romo got traded.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Then you’re creating more holes, i mean non-25 man chips.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
I would rather have Romo than Quintin.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
I’m thinking about a LF/RF bat as the best quick improvement for the Giants. On the trade market, Carlos Quentin makes the most sense. Nick Swisher is similar but the Yanks need him unless they sign Beltran.
We could just roll with Belt in LF and take our chances. That maybe what they are thinking. But what if he hits 190 for the first 15-20 games? I think that’s where most fans attraction to Beltran comes in – you can let Belt be a replacement for Huff sucking, Nate sucking/hurt and if signed Beltran being hurt. I think the front office is most likely weighing LF/SS options that can carry it along if the Brandons don’t prove out in spring training/don’t hit out the door.
If no Beltran they gotta go Belt in LF (or Huff I suppose).
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:53 PM PST up reply actions
The other problem is that the Giants still need a backup C, a SS, and one more OF. (And a 5th SP, really). And it appears they have around 6-10 Million to fill them with.
Their in a tough spot, stratagy-wise.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:26 PM PST up reply actions
I accept your point about Beltran: what was in my mind was the small number of games he played in 2009-10, and the length of time it took his hand to recover in 2011 with the Giants, as also his startling decrease in defensive range, seemingly, which may suggest chronic problems with knees and/or hips, such as one might expect in someone of his age. I’m strongly in favor of our signing Beltran, but I think there’s considerable risk involved, and considerable reason to believe that independent of cost, prudence might make the Giants might be hesitant to rush in. If Zito and Rowand continue to fetter the organization, long-term, high-priced contracts in 2012 will have the same effect in later years.
Greater weight goes to more recent years
Not really fair to point to seasons from ten years ago as proof he’s healthy now. From 2001-2011, Barry Bonds has averaged 5.6 WAR per season. Though that would have led the Giants overall last year, I would not sign him now because he hasn’t produced anything since his “retirement” in 2007. Beltran is an injury risk, no doubt about it, and at 35 it’s hard to see him improving or getting healthier.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Sorry
Should be 5.06 WAR per season. Forgot that’s 11 seasons – if you want the 10 most recent instead (2002-2011) he averages 4.3.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I don’t think the risk should be that terrible on a 2-3 yr Beltran deal, the guys a model of consistancy.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions
Model of consistency? Really? Last six years his WARs have been, 7.9, 5.5, 7.6, 3.0, 0.8, 4.7. Not exactly Musialesque. Although I’d agree that the rewards of the upper end of the spectrum make the risk worthwhile. A guy like Willingham, who really is a model of consistency (2.1, 2.1, 3.0, 2.6, 3.0, 2.1) brings the stability but limited chance for he upper echelon reward.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Sorry
i just meant you know you’re gonna get a great hitter.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:12 PM PST up reply actions
So how far do you go for the upper echelon reward? To win a bid against a Boston that may have to include a 3rd year. 3/36 may not get it done. It may have to be 3/45, which is a pretty big risk. (Actually similar to what Rollins might end up being – although Rollins has a much easier 4th year argument)
With the Rollins scenario – what if Philly doesn’t work out or there is a fall out there? He is used to sellout crowds and is from the bay area. It is not unrealistic that we are his 2nd choice. Holding the line at 3/36 might win that deal, if Sabean deems to bid.
I don’t think Rollins is as good a fit for this team as Beltran, with Crawford so close. Maybe Crawfords a bust, I just like Beltran in the middle of Pablo/Posey/Belt better than jroll at the top.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:17 PM PST up reply actions
Totally agree. But any AL team can blow us out of the water if they want on Don Carlos. A 4th year for Beltran is madness. So exploring Rollins should be on the table – 3 years – because that would improve the offense (and the defense we threw up last year).
There really isn’t a good leadoff hitter on the market besides Reyes, the leadoff is going to be questionable no matter who they sign.
Yep
it’ll probs be the Melkman
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:32 PM PST up reply actions
I just don't think the market for Beltran, in terms of where he is willing to sign, is huge
Beltran wants to win, and is only interested in a contender. That much is obvious. His only complaints about the Giants were whether they were competitive enough. They are competitive, he liked it here, and we mostly loved him. He just finished a $120m contract, but has only twice been in the playoffs. Time is running out for him to win a championship, and that’s everything at this point. The Giants, with him, are a pretty good place to do that.
So his field is limited to contenders. That would include:
Tampa – Seriously?
New York Yankees – Full outfield, Beltran wont DH, he was a Met
Philly – Limited funds, but possible destination. Have to wonder if he’d play for them after being a Met for so long. I just don’t think it is a match. But Amaro is a spiteful creature.
Angels – NO WANT MOAR OUTFIELDERS
Rangers – About to have a ton of young stars start costing more and reaching free agency, they wont spend money on a FA hitter.
No reason.
Brewers – Possible, but not so legitimate a contender; also, not going to spend for him
Tigers – Possible destination, but they have enough outfielders as is. Rayburn, Boesch, Young, Jackson… Also, don’t need offense outside 2B/3B.
Diamondbacks – Not happening. Parra/Young/Upton
Nationals – Pretty full outfield unless you mean to through this guy into CF.
Red Sox – They could pay it, but why would they want to? Ortiz will come back. He doesn’t want to play anywhere else, and nobody else is so good a fit to DH for them. Also, they have a bloated payroll as is; they will stay away from aging-star contracts. Moreover, why would they need/want more offense? Pitching is what killed them. They had the best offense in baseball, and will return all the guys who made it happen. I see them signing Aramis Ramirez before Beltran. This might be just Beltran’s agent trying to build a market, or Boston just wondering what he would cost. But I don’t think it is going to happen; Boston has been big in the rumor mill, but they don’t really have the need, and I’d think the Giants are just as likely to spend so much money on a FA outfielder as the Red Sox are. The Giants need him, the Sox don’t. That will be the difference.
I agree with most of that. The Rangers might though – Hamilton and Cruz break down every year, and they are aggressive and non-conventional – everybody is thinking they are going pitching this year. And Detroit. But Boston definitely seems like our main competition.
Are you saying the Giants need to hold the line at 2 years? My gut says 2/30 with a third year 15MM option with 3MM buyout could get it done, that maybe an overpay. But Sabean always overpays once he identifies what he wants.
I don't care if it's 3 years, if that's what it takes.
I’d even be fine with 4th year vesting at $10m with 1100 PAs in 2013/2014
I mean, Voltron was looking pretty good. Other than his speed, his skills haven’t declined yet. Even at a 110OPS+ in 2014, he’d be worth it to us for another great performance in 2012. Also, his knee injury has been his only series injury, and he’s recovered. Other than those two half-years, he’s been a fantastic player over his career and is a fringe HoFer
HoF creds
if he gets another 10-15WAR (He’s at 60.8 bWAR / 61.7 fWAR) and wins a ring, I’m sure he’s in.
4 yrs is too much
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Beltran wants to win, and is only interested in a contender. That much is obvious.
It is?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
He did CHOOSE to come to SF
based on it being a place where he felt like he could win. All of his remarks about resigning re: the Mets and Giants has been about what the teams do to improve the rest of the team.
All of his statements have been pretty strongly indicative that he wants to go where he thinks he has a very good chance of contending.
Are any of Rayburn, Boesch, Young and Jackson actually so good that it would keep the Tigers from pursuing Beltran?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
last year
Rayburn: 97 OPS+
Boesch: 117 OPS+
Jackson: 89 OPS+
Young: 90 OPS+ (full season)
Beltran: 152 OPS+
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
On that point
I’d consider the Tigers the best option other than SF for Beltran. However, Boesch and Jackson will no doubt be starting. I imagine they’d feel comfortable with Young or Rayburn in the other spot.
2B/3B were their real problem areas. I expect them to fix that before going for an expensive, aging, star outfieler.
The marlins offered him 90 million for 6 years, you mean we cannot be in that ballpark when we are paying guys like Rowand and Huff significantly north of ten million?
Not to mention Zito!
Apples and oranges
The Marlins payroll starting the offseason was something around $50M guaranteed with about an additional $12M likely needed to sign their arb-eligible and controlled players.
The Giants payroll starting the offseason was something around $80M guaranteed with about an additional $40M likely needed to sign their arb-eligible and controlled players.
It’s easy to see that the Marlins have a ton of payroll space (in excess of $60M) just to reach where the Giants will stand when the season starts in 2012 – even if they don’t add any more free agents.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The Giants
got Miguel Cabrera?
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Nov 18, 2011 8:37 PM PST up reply actions
Not evil, just wrong.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
Excellent post - Rec'd
My only quibble:
You can’t argue both sides of the coin – if you’re mad at Sabean for spending too much on Zito and Rowand earlier because they weren’t good free agent targets, you can’t expect him to go after Rollins and Beltran for the same reasons.
Even blaming Sabean for the Rowand and Zito contracts might not be fair as we’ve been through a million times.
So I guess this means the Phillies making it past the 1st round of the 2010 post season was a fluke.
I’m skeptical of that. Rowand is such a proto-typical Sabean guy that I think everybody in baseball assumed the Giants would be one of the hardest teams after him that winter. It really comes off as one of those ultra convenient blame the dead guy excuses to suddenly be Magowan’s fault two years later.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 22, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Baggs hinted at that but I don’t know, it seems like Rowand might be getting swept in with Zito as a retroactive ownership decision.
Gary Matthews Jr and Juan Pierre were on the market as well. Matthews Jr was offered a contract by the Giants. Signed 5/50 with the Angels. Not sure if Pierre was offered anything by us but got 5/41MM. Pretty sure Philly did bid a 4th year on Rowand but walked away, maybe they only offered 3 years. I can totally see Sabean overbidding the extra year and another couple million annual to get a guy after Matthews rejected us. (Matthews signed officially on Nov 22, Rowand on Dec 12).
Don’t forget Sabean bid on Soriano and Lee the year before and got rejected. After Sarge Jr goes with the Angels, I can totally see him going over the top of whatever Philly was offering to get a hitter, dammit! The legend of Warrior Spirit took hold quickly after that, the PR spin was all ownership I bet.
To me one of the takeaways from this history is this: you just named a critical mass of the worst FA contracts given out in the last decade or so and we seem to have been in on all of them. And yet when guys who turn out to be real impact players are out there, the FO stays away and says “too much.” So we’re putting competitive offers out there to Matthews, Lee, Soriano, Rowand, but avoiding Reyes, Holladay, Sabathia, Guerrero, even Teixiera (who by Fangraphs has produced just slightly less than his contract value thus far, $55 v $62 mil).
In the end, it’s a player evaluation issue. Somebody earlier said if you want them to go after FA X, then you can’t blame them for going after FA Z(ito), and to me, that’s completely backwards reasoning because it’s all the same process: how do you evaluate and valuate players? If you do it well, you should end up with contracts that are mostly unburdensome, or looked at a different way, moveable. How many unmoveable contracts have we had the last decade? And not just the monster ones like Zito and Rowand, Roberts was untradeable, Aurilia was untradeable, I wouldn’t be surprised if come June Affeldt’s untradeable. That’s a valuation problem, just as the famous can’t have Vlad if you want this pile of garbage over here is a valuation problem. As is treating Reyes like the plague while putting together a $20+ bullpen.
I guess my skepticism stems from this: if you want me to believe you were against Rowand, don’t sign ……….. (fill in the blank there, because there’s plenty to choose from).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 22, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Beltran
Curious, if he’s re-signed, who else fills out the remaining spots? Still need a Paulino, Snyder type C, maybe a Punto or cheap SS/UT, and a Torres/Ross type OF?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 6:50 PM PST reply actions
Torres will be back unless he forces arbitration. Justin Christian would probably take his spot on the roster. Ross is gone unless he accepts a huge, huge pay cut to sign as a free agent. Backup catcher will likely be Stewart or a veteran free agent like Pudge Rodriguez Sabes will definitlely sign/trade for some cheapish veteran SS if he can’t sign Jimmy Rollins.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’m excited by your faith in them bringing back Torres. Pretty nervous until it happens though. Doumit would be horrible defensively and expensive, but he would really improve the bench and the Bochy get out of town lineups. Kelly Stoppach is out there. Pudge’s bat at this point resembles Stewarts.
It seems like a lot of teams are focusing on Catchers and Middle Infield types – already almost half the market has been signed. (Barajas, Blanco, Treanor, Laird, Schneider & J. Molina already signed) Just as long as they don’t get cute and give the Reds our draft pick for Ramon Hernandez.
Sabes will definitlely sign/trade for some cheapish veteran SS if he can’t sign Jimmy Rollins.
He might well want to, but given the recent Bloomquist, Ellis, Carroll signings it seems far from certain that any such creature will exist this offseason. Certainly not one who provides better production/cost as Fontenot.
In fact, given the heat that the MI market is running in right now, I tend to agree with Xanthan, than the smartest thing they could do is tender both Fontenot and Keppinger and then trade one or both of them if they don’t want to keep them. The market is certainly out there for them. No reason to non-tender Kepp and then watch him someone else offer up a 2 yr guaranteed contract when you might be able to acquire a serviceable arm or something.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I was thinking of really cheap guys like Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo and Orlando Cabrera.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’m sure Gonzalez will get a two year deal. And if he re-signs OCab I’m ready to light a torch and go out back and find my pitchfork.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
The only difference between OCab and Gonzalez last year was the occasional HR. Gonzalez was brutal.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
He was much better than Cabrera defensively as well. Enough difference for Gonzalez to be a 1 Win player an Cabrera to be sub-replacement level. But if your point is that I should light he torch or a Gonzale signing as well I’m game.
But back to he original point, Barmes just got two years, $11mil. In this market how can we expect any established major league SS will be a cheap guy? Although Lugo couldn’t even hold a job with Baltimore and only appeared in 20 games last year (only 5 at SS) so he might well be done.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I'm done with the freak-out
We won 86 games with one of the worst offenses in franchise history and with 20+ players spending over two weeks on the DL. We were either leading the division or fighting for it until that series in Atlanta when Sanchez, Schierholtz, Romo, Wilson, and others all got injured. Add in the late season losses of Ross, Affeldt,
We aren’t facing a doomsday scenario. The team could spend more money, but really should look towards putting that money to keeping its own stars. We have in the incredible fortune of having 3 of the best pitchers in baseball, and a catcher and 3rd baseman who are among the very best at their position in baseball. If these players keep it up, they will be enormously expensive to keep around. We all know this. Paying Timmy and Cain $45m/year from 2013 onward would take a huge chunk out of our available payroll. I don’t think it’s so bad an idea that once the Zito/Rowand/Huff nightmare passes, we don’t jump back into making long-term big money FA contracts. I’d rather we lock up our own players, plug in cheap talent from the farm system, and smartly get FA or make trades when we have a hole.
I’m trying to say that we have a phenomenal team that gives me enormous amounts of joy to watch, Orlando Cabbage and other garbage middle infielders not withstanding.
And depending how good Arizona is next year (And they could be very good, although I expect regression. I expect them to be a 90-win team), we should be able to contend and likely win the division even with our current players on the roster. If we add Beltran, I would think we have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NL.
We need a league-average offense to be a dominant team, right?
Would this be league average?
CF Melky Cabrera – 121 OPS+ (2011)
RF Nate Schierholtz – 112 OPS+ (362PA in 2011)
3B Pablo Sandoval – 153 OPS+ (2011)
C Buster Posey – 115 OPS+ (185 PA in 2011) / 133 OPS+ (443 PA in 2010)
LF Brandon Belt – 101 OPS+, 9HR (209PA in 2011)
2B Freddy Sanchez – 106 OPS+ (2011) / 102 OPS+ (2010)
1B Aubrey Huff – 90 OPS+ (2011) / 142 OPS+ (2010)
SS Brandon Crawford – 66 OPS+ (220PA in 2011)
Assuming healthy players, yes, I think this would be a league-average-or-better offense. Also consider that league average 2011 NL OPS+ was around 95. Of course there are a lot of question marks – Buster, Freddy, Nate. But also some upside: I believe that Brandon Belt is talented enough to be our best player on account of his bat (>140 OPS+ is very possible given his batting eye, power, lack of platoon splits, history of very high batting averages throughout his non-Majors pro career), Aubrey Huff was god-awful but still had a 90OPS+ and should be expected to rebound somewhat given that he will quickly be given the ax if he doesn’t get in shape and return to success, Brandon Crawford could not be as awful as he was (or so I hope). Melky, Nate, and Pablo should all be able to perform near the 2011 levels, although Melky might have some regression assuming his increased BABIP is not due entirely to being in better shape and thus running faster and hitting the ball harder (I believe it is; I think it’s irrational how many think that BABIP is some golden mean that exists separate from reality and a player’s talent and year-to-year conditioning and preparation.
With our pitching staff, that looks like a pretty good team to me. Sure, if we had Reyes batting leadoff and no Brandon Crawford, we would be a pre-season WS favorite. But that’s okay with me. I just want an exciting team with players I like to win.
And, lets just look at that same lineup with Carlos Beltran:
CF Melky Cabrera – 121 OPS+ (2011)
RF Nate Schierholtz – 112 OPS+ (362PA in 2011)
3B Pablo Sandoval – 153 OPS+ (2011)
C Buster Posey – 115 OPS+ (185 PA in 2011) / 133 OPS+ (443 PA in 2010)
LF Carlos Beltran – 152 OPS+ (2011) / 121 OPS+ (Career)
1B Aubrey Huff – 90 OPS+ (2011) / 142 OPS+ (2010)
OR Brandon Belt – 101 OPS+, 9HR (209PA in 2011)
2B Freddy Sanchez – 106 OPS+ (2011) / 102 OPS+ (2010)
SS Brandon Crawford – 66 OPS+ (220PA in 2011)
With that lineup, I’d be pretty optimistic about 2012. I think that could be a fringe Top-5 NL offense. I think the FO is seeing the same thing. #VOLTRON
I love
that Beltran lineup.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
Only prob
is the bench might be thin.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:23 PM PST up reply actions
Bench:
OF: Torres
C: Stewart (Then Sanchez around mid-season after he crushes the PCL).
UF: Fontenot
LHH 1B/OF/PH: Aubrey Huff
RHH 1B/OF/PH: Brett Pill
I should crunch the numbers and see how much that payroll would be.
Payroll
Pitchers:
SP:
Lincecum – $20m
Cain – $15m
Zito – $19m
Vogelsong – $3m
MadBum – $500k
Total: $57.5m
RP:
Affeldt – $5m
Lopez – $4.25m
Ramirez – $2.3
Casilla – $1.9m
Romo – $1.3m
Mota – $1.5m
Wilson – $8.5m
Total: $24.75m
Lineup:
CF Melky Cabrera – $4.5m
RF Nate Schierholtz – $1.2m
3B Sandoval – $3.2m
C Buster – 500k
RF Beltran – $13m (GUESS?)
1B Belt – 500k
2B Freddy – $6m
SS Crawford – 500k
Total: $29.5m (DAMN THATS A CHEAP GOOD LINEUP!)
Bench:
OF Torres – $1m
C Stewart – 500k
UF Fontenot – $1.3m
LHH 1B/OF Huff – $11m (D’OH!)
RHH 1B/OF Pill – 500k
Total: 14.3m
Pitching total: $82.25m (HOLY CRAP THAT IS EXPENSIVE PITCHING)
Hitting total: $43.8m
TOTAL Payroll (sans Rowand): $126m
TOTAL PAYROLL (incl. Rowand): $138m
(Numbers taken from Cotts and MLB Trade Rumors arb-eligible series)
Let’s really hope that they’re counting Rowand as a sunk cost. That would be a fantastic team.
Yes
that would be competetive. Picking up a 5th starter would be crucial though, even a throw away, maybe Andrew Miller?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 9:43 PM PST up reply actions
Why?
The Giants went into 2011 with Zito as 5th starter, a ton of extra innings on the other 4 starters and no in house backup options. This year, Zito is once again 5th starter, but the other starters have fewer innings, and Surkamp is the backup option.
Oh yeah, and then there was 2010...
The year of Todd Wellemeyer and TGWTWS.
The Sox are apparently shopping Andrew Miller. Giving up Ramon Ramirez or yet another one of our dwindling pitching prospects would be a nice cheap move. Zito needs some competition before he goes and works on that knuckleball.
wait why would you trade a useful player for andrew miller
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Ramirez? Knee jerk reaction, was advocating Ramirez for Angel Pagan before Melky trade. He’s arb eligible on the bubble of being tendered and the most easily replaceable. Useful, yes.
I also said prospects. I don’t think Zito is a serious candidate for 5th starter and getting a couple candidates such as Miller or Eric Bedard would be a good move.
Andrew Miller is a replacement level player, I wouldn’t give up anyone for him. He is terrible.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
He’s no better than Surkamp, for example.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
And Ramirez was worth 0.9 fWAR last year
which is pretty great for a middle reliever.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
OK, OK, Forget RR, I said prospects as well. Miller has talent, a tall lefty first round pick, a guy we were rumored to be in on last year before Boston signed him and just a good reclamation project. Someone elses idea that i liked.
Miller has talent but at this moment, his career best ERA is 4.87 and he’s 26.
I would pick him up if he’s free, but that’s about it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
I was just mentioning him as an idea for a 5th starter, i don’t think it’d take much to get him, and he is only 26, and is not terrible.
I just don’t want to watch zito every 5th, he is terrible.
It don’t have to be miller, but there seem to be some guys out there that would be easy to get, and couldn’t be worse than zito, but could be way better.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 18, 2011 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
andrew miller is, like, the definition of terrible!!
he has a 75 career ERA+ and a 4.77 career FIP.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
4.77 career FIP actually isn't that bad.
Not saying I would pick him up, though.
It’s pretty bad.
And his results have consistently been worse than that over his career (~5.40 career ERA).
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
for a 5th starter?
I’d say that’s pretty good.
AJ Burnett posted a 4.77 last year. That was the 90th lowest FIP in the majors. If we assume 1-30 are #1 starters, #31-60 are #2 starters, etc. 4.77 is the exact cutoff betwen #3 starter and #4 starter.
well that’s career.
last two years his FIP has been 5.21 and 6.23 with about 6 BB/9.
I’m sorry, but I must be missing something. He stinks. There is no reason for the Giants to give up anything of value for him.
Hell, the Red Sox got him for free. He proceeds to put up a 5.21 ERA and 5.7 BB/9 and now they’re going to get value back for hm?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
I didn't say anything about Miller.
I was just saying 4.77 FIP from a 5th starter isn’t that bad. I’d take it in a heartbeat.
4.77 FIP is 20% worse than league average
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Barry Zito
Career ERA =3.91
AL ERA = 3.55
NL ERA = 4.55
Go Giants
League average can be deceptive.
Relievers have better FIPs than starters, so league average FIP for starters is going to be worse than league average FIP. Secondly, league average FIP for starters would be a middle of the pack #3 starter. We’re talking about #5 starter, so you would expect them to be the worst 20% of the starters, definitely worse than league average.
Wow
Not a fan of Miller’s huh?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 18, 2011 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t see what there is to be a fan of. He looks like Eric Surkamp with more hype because he was once taken high in the draft. Sometimes pitchers bust. He was one of them.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
He has been rushed, he’s a out of control lefty and he’s young. He was slotted in between Timmy and Kershaw in 2007 prospect lists. Yes, he’s been a big time disappointment so far, but I like the idea. We just gave up on Sanchez, why not go out and grab a pedigreed lefty with some control problems. Maybe he becomes a loogy in a year. The Giants did have interest in him last year.
Current scouting: A big southpaw with a mid-90s fastball and good slider, he can at times display the ability to dominate on the mound. Can also be very tough on left-handed bats, and be used either as a starter or reliever.
I also like the idea of Eric Bedard, or taking a shot at Aardsma coming back from his injuries. Trading for Chris Volstad on FL has been brought up. If they want to spend some money Paul Maholm intrigues me. With the coaching and the park we have, getting some reclamation projects going is where its at. Vogelsong won’t be replicated, but they need some options.
We can hope Zito regains his lost velocity, gets up to 87-88 and somehow gets through some starts. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
2007 was a long-ass time ago, i don't know how it's relevant in any way
being highly ranked on a prospect list 4 years ago means approximately nothing
his average fastball over the last three years has been around 90, 90 and 92 so mid-90s seems ridiculous to say.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Some lefties take a long time to figure it out. Here’s an interesting article on him:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/season-preview/2011/2611421.html
That type of talent is worth a look. Don’t know enough about his velocity to say anything useful. We need some starters in AAA and some lefties as well.
his velocity is available on fangraphs
i’m glad he embraced his second chance, but he was bad again this year. there’s nothing about his performance or his stuff that suggests he’s going to be better than replacement level.
if he’s free (like, signed on a minor league contract) sure but I wouldn’t trade anything for him
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
I think that you’re guessing too low on several salaries.
Beltran will get more than $13M unless his contract is heavily back-ended.
Panda and Vogelsong will likely make much more than $6.2M in arbitration.
Guillermo Mota is a free agent and will likely get more than $1.5M offer – I don’t think he’s on the team next year.
Rowand’s $12M is definitely being counted when team sources talk about holding the payroll under $130M to begin next season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Those numbers aren’t mine re: arbitration. I took Vogelsong’s and Pablo’s expected payout from the MLBTR arbitration eligibles series. They have a pretty accurate model they use, so I find those amounts better than anything somebody else is going to just make up.
I don’t know for sure about Rowand’s $12mil. Remember when they said they wanted payroll to remain the same right as the season ended, and that if counting Rowand, arbitration raises would’ve put them over as is? They might be treating it as a loss, and not counting it towards payroll. They might be counting it. I don’t know. None of us do until somebody clarifies it for us.
Mota is nearly 40 years old, and while he is still a pretty good pitcher (I really like him and hope he stays), the market may be limited. He also chose to resign with SF last year for $1m. He might do it again to stick around; he seems to like it here.
For Beltran, I figured $13m/yr for 3 years would be the likely range for a contract. Most are pegging his annual salary at between $10-15m, although $10m would be way short. I think he could get 2/30 or 3/40.
All in all the numbers are debatable. I was just adding up the guys we already have + Beltran, and non-tendering or trading Burris, Whiteside, Keppinger.
I think the craziest thing here
is that our relief pitching costs almost as much as our lineup. And if we don’t get Beltran, it will cost more than our lineup. Absolutely ridiculous. Especially for a team with a knack for developing pitchers that just traded away two guys who could’ve been great LH relief options and cost less than Affeldt/Lopez. (I still do somewhat stand behind the Lopez/Affeldt signing, although I will hate it if we do not get Beltran as a result).
PRIORITIES!
Also,
it makes the idea of trading Wilson and his $8.5m salary look like the only means left to cut $$$ from the payroll.
Would you play Beltran or Melky in CF, assuming Nate’s not an option?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 7:28 PM PST reply actions
The fish already offerred Pujols over 200,000 million and Reyes 90 million, Giants should be able to go after either Rollins or Beltran, if not Reyes.
At least one of those guys. This assumes that they are telling the truth that they are absolutely not going after Fielder or Pujols. I’m now more worried that our starting rotation is only 4 men deep. The team started going south after Dirty’s injury.
Actually they were sunk when Buster’s leg/ankle went.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 17, 2011 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
Worst case cynical scenario
CEO Baer: Brian, as my first order of business as the official CEO, I would like to have a conversation with you.
GM Sabez: Sure, Larry, I’m wicked hammered though.
CEO Baer: No problem. Listen, it looks like our net profits for the 2011 year will be in the $100 million area. Once again this will be divided among the board of trustees equally in the fashion of year end bonuses and you will receive your 1% payout of net annual profits in the form of a bonus as well. We will continue this structure moving forward. In effect, Brian, as I think you know, the less you spend, the more we all make. 2010, Lincecum’s hair, Wilson’s beard and Buster will sell the tickets for 2012 themselves. There is really no need to spend much cash this offseason. See if you can find some big names on the cheap that could help even more with ticket sales, but we should be pretty good. We are good enough to at least stay within striking distance all year long and that means we will sell tickets and merch all year. We got rid of Wild Bill who was literally trying to Neuk all of our profits!!!
Sabez and Baer: LULZ
GM Sabez: OK, bossman. Had the tape recorder running, I will let Susan know how to proceed.
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Nov 18, 2011 6:09 AM PST reply actions
lol
would people still be defending this offseason if the Giants HAD managed to sign Willie Bloomquist?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
Is there really even a reason to defend or attack the offseason at this point? It’s way too early. No significant free agent has gone anywhere yet, or is even close to going anywhere yet. The Giants don’t have to make a single move this entire offseason, and then with one stroke of a pen turn into a positive offseason with one signing. We can guess where it’s going, but we really have no concrete way of knowing.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Again, this is true enough
But I didn’t want to title the fanpost “The Insanity of What The Giants Say They Are Going To Try To Do This Offseason”.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
that's fine
They had a press conference and everything and as much as said they’d only try for Beltran after re-signing every pitcher, preferably to longer-term deals. And they’ve repeatedly said they aren’t going to pay for a big name. So, maybe they wangle a miraculous trade of Edgar Gonzalez for Jesus Montero or something, but unlike most seasons this isn’t a fantastical scenario. They changed ownership to implement the plan they’re executing.
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Nov 18, 2011 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Doesn’t make it a smart plan. They’ve already spent nearly $10 mil on two LOOGYs and tried to spend 2 and half more on a dead mans Neifi, but they don’t have the money for an elite player. That’s always been the craziness of Sabeans method: the unbridled profligacy for mediocre (or worse) value combined with skinflintitis when it comes to real impact.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I certainly am not defending it
just have a hard time understanding anyone being surprised by it any more, or holding out hope for a major deviation from the plan they announced.
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Nov 19, 2011 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t think GP was doing either of those things — just pointing out that the plan as announced, is in fact, highly illogical.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
That’s why I was agreeing with him and surprised by others in this thread and elsewhere who remain unconvinced about the agenda.
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Nov 19, 2011 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
at this point, I guess I hope they
1. re-sign Beltran
2. start with a Beltran – Cabrera – Schierholtz OF
3. don’t give Huff a very long leash at all
4. be ready to insert Belt at a moment’s notice
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
I call him gerald. he’s a pristine white handkerchief, though? nediB eoJ Joe Biden ‽ Joe Biden.
This exactly
plus I’d like to see a non-Zito 5th starter.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 18, 2011 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
I'd place backup C above non-Zito 5th starter
So I guess this means the Phillies making it past the 1st round of the 2010 post season was a fluke.
Reyes
Reyes is going to play somewhere warm and close to the Caribbean. That is a fact. Sabean could offer him 3-5 million a year on top of any other and he might go for it but it would not be a good move for either. He is going East Coast.
The off season is still only 18 days old. A lot of things can happen and IMO it’s way too early to whine.
Go Giants
Nitpicking, but things that haven’t actually happened yet can’t be definition be “facts.” There’s only four teams I can think of that remotely qualify for that criteria so we’ll see whether it becomes a fact or not.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
The Giants have to compete with the entire Eastern division, CIN and MIL. Atlanta may have declared themselves out, but I think they’d get back in if the bidding stays at 6/90 that Florida offered. I think the Giants would have to go 3-5MM a year AND the extra year to get his attention.
I think it is a fact that Reyes wants somewhere warm and close to home, unless a lot more money is waved in his face.
Neither Cincinnati or Milwaukee are “warm and close to the Caribbean” nor do I think those are required for Reyes to sign – he’d take a job anywhere if they paid him the most I’d think.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
So a baseline has been established by the warm and close to home Florida Marlins (miserable organization that they are) of 6/90. I think 4-6 teams would offer that for him including MIL. So some team has to blink and beat it, then he’ll go for the money. My prediction is still Washington (closer than NY!) because the owner has stupid money to throw, they’re getting a year closer to Harper, Strasburg is back, etc.
I can't see Reyes signing
a long-term deal with a team not on the East Coast. The Brewers and Reds may be in it, only if they offer the largest deal, and yet the Marlins and Nats seem to be in crazy-man territory this offseason, rendering that possibility moot. Besides, didn’t Reyes already say that the Giants wouldn’t exactly be at the top of his list?
It’s all for naught anyway, given what’s been coming out of Baer and Evans recently. The leadership is being consistent in saying that they’ll focus on the pitching first and then see what else they can do, with an apparent eye towards the outfield first. That would seem to mean that once they see what it takes to nail down Cain and Lincecum, which may not be known until January, they’ll see what pennies they have left for another outfielder. But by then, you can forget about Rollins, Beltran, and damn well the rest of them.
At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if what we saw is Melky and another scrap-heap signing along with the pitching moves as the sum total of this offseason, as the team bides its time to burn off the Rowand/Huff/Sanchez, and perhaps Wilson money heading into next offseason.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
Sabean also stated that he could ask ownership for extra $ for a specific (Beltran?) player. He’s going to try after giving up wheeler, to keep Beltran.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 18, 2011 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Effectively, Washington is a whole lot further away than New York because it’s impossible to fly to the DR direct. In fact, in nearly all cases it would be quicker to drive from Washington to New York and then fly to Santiago, then to book a flight from Washington.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Did not know that. Now is Reyes going to look into commercial flights or is he buying into netjets with his new dollarz? Or is he throwing that down in the contract like Don Carlos with his road hotel suites or 15-person luxury suite for all home games?
Huge bucket of salt, but Heyman just said his sources told him the Marlins offer was “substantially” less than 90MM. And the PR games continue.
Max Ramirez
Any chance they consider him after his nice Fresno/winter run?
I couldn’t take a pudge signing.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
Giants Baseball: increase the dosage, count back from 10.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 18, 2011 12:32 PM PST reply actions
MLB "Shredder" Projections
For the next 3 years:
Rollins
2012: 444 ABS 277/350/465
2013: 447 ABS 276/352/491
2014: 285 ABS 274/360/426
Reyes
2012: 277/325/410
2013: 261/319/337
2014: 275/337/418
(No ABs predicted)
Haven’t seen a prediction that sends Rollins back to his glory days and Reyes off a cliff yet. Interesting.
That is a load of crap
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Agreed
Even the announcer was casting doubts for both.
But it is a good exercise to look at possible bad outcomes for FAs we all drool over.
Here’s Bill James predictions for next year:
Beltran .279/.369/.480, 20 HR, 8 SB, 128 Games.
Belt .266/.358/.482, 25 HR, 11 SB, 151 Games.
That's because Bill James, being highly intelligent, can't fathom that anyone as thick headed and obtuse as Bochy could actually be employed as an MLB manager.
Giants baseball: So hollow, so empty.
"You don't go out with the pressure that you've gotta be perfect. It's more, 'I know I'm capable of throwing a shutout, so I should probably strive for that every time I go out. And if I don't, then I bite myself in the ass, not everybody else.' "--Tim Lincecum discussing how he deals with the shitty Giants offense.
by Sabean's_Folly on Nov 18, 2011 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I expect similar numbers for belt
which is why I feel okay even if we don’t add any further offensive players. I actually think Belt will hit for more power than that, and have a higher OBP from getting walked as a result. That is an .840OPS that Bill James predicts—which is really good. If Belt gets at least 500 PAs next year, I think he could put up closer to an .860-.900OPS.
I just don’t get how this team keeps messing with him; he’s really good.
Keeps messing with him? He’s 23 and has been in the org for two seasons, the second of which he spent appreciable time in the majors… that sounds like a fast track to me.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 22, 2011 7:09 PM PST up reply actions
You can’t deny that he was messed with this year, what with his being yo-yoed back and forth and not getting consistent playing time when he was in the major leagues (except for April), and management disparaging his abilities for much of the time. It would have been better for him if he had been in AAA all year.
"Forget it, Jake. It's academic."
I'd say I'm most upset
about the bullshit they’ve said about him, letting the franchise putting his ‘emotional made the team’ moment on tv where he cries, making an awkward situation between him and an horribly slumping Aubrey Huff on account of resigning Huff to play 1B then deciding in the spring that a guy just about 23 is going to move the old Vet to patrolling the outfield.
And that he languished on the bench for most of his time in the big leagues, then they keep saying he needs to work on stuff. That’s just ridiculous. Brandon Belt is a truly special bat; if he was drafted in the first round, the road would have been paved for him to 1B in SF like he was Ryan Braun or Troy Tulowitzki back in 2007.
Players do not often destroy the entirey of the minor leagues in their first pro season. When they do, they usually end up being pretty darned good players.
WOW
That’s not just glory days. Jimmy Rollins has played 11 full seasons in the majors and he has NEVER had an OBP of .350 in a season. He’s only been as as high as .340 three times. He’s had a SLG over .460 twice.
Reyes meanwhile has post OBP of .350+ in five of the last six seasons.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
it is worth noting that Rollins has increased his walk rate over the last 3 seasons
by Lies and Perfidy on Nov 18, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions
Those projection lines have to be switched
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
"And besides, if I wanted to participate in a mindless patriotic ritual where my voice isn’t really heard, I would vote." - Chris Marcil
A dude name Russel Martin just denied Arsenal a goal via amazing field block. Fuck that guy.
Carter Jurica!
"Has anyone really been for even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?"
by GrahamCrakalaka on Nov 19, 2011 5:01 AM PST reply actions
Can the McCoven use their powers
to somehow get Brian Wilson to read this article to the FO, punctuate it with “FACT,” and threaten Baer w/ a chalupa? Obvious insult to the fans if they don’t make a big signing. #freeNeukom
They’d probably just sign Wilson to a six year deal and call it a day.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Excellent post
Needless to say, I am in agreement with all of it.
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Nov 20, 2011 10:09 AM PST reply actions
Not at all needless
Happy you agree.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
It’s sad watching great players careers get squandered by lack of offense. I remember wishing Bonds would get traded to the (hated) Yankees just so he could play at his full potential.
I will never forgive Sabean for that.
Now, I’m being forced to watch Timmy and Cain and probably Posey be squandered. Sometimes I think I’d be better off as a Pirates fan.
Over
Nah, you wouldn't
I know one or two. When your ace is Kevin Correia, bleh.
Adopted father of Chris Lincecum, without whom (quite literally) Timmy would not exist.
Quincy and Orgonedonor made most of my points
Like others have said, declaring “insanity” prematurely isn’t wise and you run the rist of looking silly should the team make a big signing. It’s like watching Van Gough’s first few brush strokes of a painting and declaring him insane. What’s that you say? He was insane? OK, bad analogy.
I’ll add that I think it’s at least a little hypocritical to criticize a team for assuming guys are going to be healthy when you so vociferously advocate committing $100-150M to a SS with an injury history of his own.
Also this:
Freddy Sanchez’s only healthy season in the past three years
They’re counting on Freddy Sanchez, who’s had one healthy season of the past three
Since you made this point twice, would you mind telling us which of the last three season was his one healthy one? His 2009 and 2010 were identical in games played (111) and almost identical in PAs (489 and 479, respectively)
So I guess this means the Phillies making it past the 1st round of the 2010 post season was a fluke.
Excuse me
Zero healthy seasons of the past three.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong because of what they’ve said publicly. Nothing to be done there.
Gigante. Campeón. Pumpkin. Andrés Torres.
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
He's really good! He's an injury risk! But he's really good! But he'll be expensive! But he's really good! But he's an injury risk!
As I suspected/hoped, the new CBA allows us to sign Willingham and not surrender our #20 draft pick (which I’m now guessing had better be a college player).
Get R DUN, Sabes!
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
You beat me
I see now that you preceded my fnapost on this subject. I should have known that you would have scoped out that special provisoin of the new CBA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I'm not nearly as pessimistic
First, the pitching is excellent and clearly the strength of the team so I have no issue securing it.
Second, I dispute your assertions about the team offense. Specifically:
1) in 2009 Pablo had an atrocious year, last year he came back and all indications are that 2012 will be another good one for the Panda.
2) Buster Posey should be recovered. He may not hit like he did his rookie season but I don’t think anyone expects him to be on the Whiteside/Stewart level of suck.
3) Melky Cabrera isn’t replacing Torres, at least not yet, he’s replacing Rowand and that can’t be bad.
4) I’m hopeful Brandon Belt will unseat Huff at first.
5) Sanchez, when healthy, is as good a 2-hole hitter as there is. I know there are potentially better guys out there but when looking for weaknesses this isn’t where I’d focus.
6) We still don’t know if they’re going to resign Beltran. I’m of two minds really. An outfield of Torres, Cabrera and Schierholtz works for me and Beltran’s arthritic knees are a concern.
7) As long as Sanchez stays healthy, Belt progresses as expected and Cabrera doesn’t revert to his Braves-type production Crawford is good enough to hit 8th.
- is a whole lot of assumptions though, isn’t it? Sanchez has had significant injuries cut his playing time in each of the last three seasons. Cabrera has played six full seasons and only one of them has been above average offensively (and his Braves season isn’t close to the worst one of his career). And I haven’t got a clue where the organization stands on Belt, but it seems like they soured on him prematurely last year and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see him play a significant amount of next year in AAA (and that’s setting aside the issue of whether he develops as expected).
FWIW, I sure hope they sign Beltran or at least Willingham, because to me a Torres, Cabrera, Schierholtz OF puts you well on the way to a painfully sub-average offense again.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 22, 2011 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Stupid auto-format. That 1 up there is supposed to say “number 7.”
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I don’t disagree with you entirely. I am just not as sour on things as GP. The core of his argument was that wRC+ in the low 80s is insufficient and in mid 90s is barely sufficient with our current pitching. I’m merely suggesting that with Pablo maintaining last years production, Buster rejoining the lineup, and replacing Rowand with Cabrera we’re potentially better offensively than 2010 or 2011.
I’m hopeful that Belt and Crawford will progress and that Sanchez can give us 120 – 140 games.
I like our chances even without Beltran.
Better than 2011 is certainly possible, but don’t forget that from 2010 you’re also factoring in the loss of the offensive contributions of Burrell, Uribe and MVP caliber performances from Huff and Torres. Sandoval’s 2010 crapulance doesn’t replace all that (and given his up and down performance of the last three years I think we shouldn’t just assume that 2010 is a never to be repeated aberration just yet).
but in general, I’d put my stance this way: you should always assume that some things are going to go wrong, be they slump, injury, decline, whatever. Something that you would like to go well will go badly (hopefully to be compensated by something else going really really right), so if you find yourself in the position of having to assume positive case scenarios across the board in order to reach your bar, then the plan isn’t very robust.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
And this is what makes the off-season great!
So we amicably disagree. I think you’re forgetting, and believe me I wish I could forget too, the poopy-stanced wonder that is Aaron Rowand, not to mention almost 1/2 a season of Benji Molina.clogging the basepaths.
Torres and Huff as MVP is a bit of a stretch. He hit what .268 with and OPS of .825 or something? Huff hit .290. Both pretty good but MVP is a bit hyperbolic.
I honestly don’t think it’s a stretch for Torres to hit .265 and Belt to hit .275. I don’t think it’s fantasy to think Pablo can hit .300 with 20 HRs and 90 RBIs and Buster can produce similarly. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to imagine Freddy Sanchez playing 130 games and hitting .280. I don’t believe it’s hopeless optimism to expect Schierholtz and Cabrera to produce numbers in line with their career averages (hit .275-ish with a dozen or so dingers and 70 RBIs).
Does that make them the ’27 Yankees? No. Are they a key injury away from being a .500 club? Yes. But that was never the assertion. The assertion was are they good enough to make the post season and be a threat to get back to the World Series and I respectfully submit that they are.
I remember all that and more, but I haven’t the burden of trying to suggest that the 2010 offense was good, merely a less undesirable form of wretched: barely good enough.
As for Huff and Torres, you do realize that they were 4th and 9th in the NL in WAR, and that Huff had the 8th best wOBA in the league in 2010? Those are certainly numbers that make a case for MVP consideration (and indeed, Huff finished 7th in the MVP voting last year, behind Roy Halladay and in front of Jason Werth.
As for the other hopes, I imagine that something from that group will come true, though I don’t know which. I’d guess it wouldn’t be Sanchez playing 130 games, since he hasn’t done that since 2008. And with both Schirholtz and Cabrera we need to be hoping that they produce considerably better than their career averages since in both cases, their career average is a below league average player. Cabrera has a career .320 wOBA (and 93 OPS+), and Nate is a career .313 (and 95). Filling our corner spots with below average hitters isn’t a very good start toward creating an average offense.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Agreed. The 2010 offense was not very good which is my point. It was BARELY good enough to win the division on the last game of the season.
I guess when I think MVP I think of Albert Pujols or Jose Bautista. Huff and Torres had better 2010 seasons than anyone expected that’s not in dispute I just don’t remember either of them carrying the team. In fact I don’t remember the Giants doing very well until after the Molina trade and Buster becoming the regular catcher.
I like Schieholtz’s game. I don’t expect him to be more than he is. He plays a solid right field, he gets some clutch hits, doesn’t seem to be too bright though, strikes out too much for a non-power guy, isn’t a particularly good baserunner for a guy with decent speed, etc.
Cabrera ate his way out of New York and had a crap season with the Braves. I am a reformed New Yorker and Yankee fan, the Yankees don’t suffer talentless turds for long and they certainly don’t allow them to become starting center fielders – that is a position that is reserved for All Stars. His issues were not talent related. If he dedicates himself he’ll be good maybe even an All Star himself.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Melk Man
…wait, that hasn’t happened yet.
by Ian A on Nov 23, 2011 1:05 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
He definitely needs to prove himself but I’m optimistically looking forward to .280/15/85 and covering some outfield ground with Torres in left and Nate in right.
I’m also hopeful we’ll see Belt at first and Huff being a role player/pinch hitter/adult supervision provider which is realistically what he is at this stage of his career. I’m not down on him, just think his time has come to become a mentor rather than a day-in/day-out producer.
I’m also looking forward to productive seasons from Panda and Posey and Sanchez’s glue holding together for 120 -130 games.
Anyone think it’s possible that Cabrera will play CF over Torres if they’re both in the lineup? I doubt it – I think the org knows how good Torres is in CF.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
They do?
Then why is Torres rumored to be let go?
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
They don't think he can hit enough to justify his arb salary
It’s pretty silly to say that after paying Lopez and Affeldt as much as they did, but I would be surprised if Torres’ salary is determined by arb – either they’ll non-tender him and re-sign him, non-tender and let go, or tender and agree before arbitration. He only ceded CF to Rowand which was probably because of Rowand’s “veteran presence” – other than that, I don’t think they put anyone else in center with Torres in a corner.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I am late to the party
I mostly agree with you here. Freddy Sanchez being healthy is a big “?” Huff is moving to LF I see as a sign they are going to push him around between Schierholtz, and another unsigned corner OF, and they will give Belt a full year at 1B and possibly rest him with some Pill or Buster.
wow. rosy glasses.
We can only wish they plan to give Belt a full year.
He'll get a full year
In Fresno and San Francisco
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Like I said... rosy glasses
I fully expect him to ride the pine in the bigs for over half the season, playing in less than half the games.
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