More daily winter baseball results for Giant prospects
by Fla-Giant on Nov 16, 2011 8:05 AM PST
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PrintTime for another re-up to keep this thread in plain sight. The AZ Fall League only has 2 games left on their schedule, but the DWL, VWL, MWL, PRWL and the Australian League all still have at least well over 5 weeks left in their regular seasons. Just a reminder on which Giants we're still following this winter.
Arizona Fall League:
Ryan Bradley:
Venezuelan Winter League:
Dominican Winter League:
Mexican Winter League:
Australian Baseball League:
Puerto Rican Baseball League:
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Winter lines - Tues. 11/15
Joe Panik got another extra-base hit while reaching base in 2 of his 4 PAs – he really turned his season around after having a batting average well below the Mendoza line 10 days into the season. Not to mention that he’s played almost flawlessly at 2B. Panik’s final AFL slash line is going to end up being eerily similar to the one that he put up during his summer in the NWL for Salem-Keizer. Down in the DomRep, Brandon Belt continued his remarkably consistent offseason, hitting a double and getting a BB in his 4 PAs. Meanwhile, down in Venezuela, Hector Sanchez continued his batting assault on the league with another multi-hit game. He now has 29 hits in only 21 games and would be on a pace to get well over 200 hits if the season lasted for 162 games.
J. Panik: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K >>> .322/.398/.471/.869, 5 doubles, 1 triple + 2 HR in 25 games
B. Belt: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB >>> .310/412/.464/.876, 7 doubles + 2 HR in 24 games
F. Pegs: 2-4, 2 1B, 1 K, RBI
JC Perez: 0-4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SB >>> his 9th SB of the season
O. Matos: 1.1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K
Hector Sanchez: 2-4, 2 1B, 1 K, 2 RBI, Sac Fly >>> .387/427/.560/.987, 4 doubles + 3 HR in 21 games
Ehire Adrianza: 1-4, 1 1B, RBI
Tyler Graham: 1-6, 1 1B, 1 K
J. Christian: 0-5
J. Monell: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, RBI >>> hitting .429 through first 5 games
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
This has probably been asked before...
but which league is the toughest? How do we rate performances based on league? Does Panik show more ready than Crawford, offensively?
Wasn’t Brown in the AZL?
Uncle Sabes...How much longer til we get there?
Just my opinion
I would rank them like this (from hardest to easiest for this year only):
Puerto Rico
Venezuela
DomRep
Mexican
AZ Fall
Australian
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Brown was, but then I believe he got sick and Sabes and Co. decided it would be best just to send him home after a long season and let him rest up before spring training. This is his first full year in the pros, he played 150 games or so this year after playing ~75 last season (college + pros). That’s gonna take a toll on your body.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 16, 2011 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Daryl Maday also got pulled from the AFL early. Just guessing, but he probably felt something in his arm and the Giants erred on the side of caution. On the other hand, there should be a few more guys that end up playing in the P.R. league before it’s over.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
What does he have left to prove down there? I would rather let him recharge his batteries heading into spring training.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I totally agree, just remembered he was supposed to play and didn’t remember an official reason for him not showing up.
I recall him having some sort of muscle strain at the end of the season.
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan, Jeremiah Luster,Trey Webb,David Quinowski, Jeff Arnold,Brandon Allen, Chris Gloor and Brian Maloney.
"GM Jack Zduriencik is one of the sharper tools in the shed. Elsewhere in that shed, Brian Sabean continues to pound screws into bricks with a garden rake."
He hit a home run in his first at-bat
The Sabochean Seal of Approval is granted.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Not surprising
Not much of a name. A late-round pick from the 2010 draft who was a bit of a legacy pick – he’s the son of the Giants minor league pitching coordinator, Bart Bradley. He pitched out of the pen in Augusta this season. IMO, he’s only in the AFL because the Scorpions really needed any arm to soak up some innings after Maday was removed from the roster.
His bio page:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502674
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t know if I have seen a more uninspiring stat line in my entire life. It doesn’t inspire awe, or horror, its just there.
by free f.p. #14 on Nov 16, 2011 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
Winter lines - Wed. 11/16
In AZ, Joe Panik had another multi-hit game to raise his average to .333 and his OBP to .406. In the DR, BBelt reached base in 3 of his 5 PAs and flexed his muscles by hitting a double and his 3rd HR. Osiris Matos threw another scoreless inning in relief – he’s quietly had a very effective offseason so far. In Venezuela, Hector Sanchez continued his season-long consistently torrid hitting by getting a single and a double in 4 PAs. He’s had multiple hits in 9 of his 22 games this year – including 7 in his 15 starts in the month of November.
J. Panik: 2-3, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 RBI
Crawdaddy: 0-3, RBI
B. Belt: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 BB >>> .318/.415/.511/.926, 8 doubles + 3 HR in 25 games
F. Pegs: 1-4, 1 1B
JC Perez: 0-3, 1 K, 1 Assist (threw runner out at 2B)
O. Matos: 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 K
Hector Sanchez: 2-4, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 K, 2 RBI >>> .392/.430/.570/1.000, 5 doubles + 3 HR in 22 games
Ehire Adrianza: 0-4, 1 1B, RBI
Jose Flores: 0-1
Max Ramirez: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB
Tyler Graham: 2-5, 1 1B, 1 HR, 1 K, RBI
J. Christian: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
More Panik
Adam Foster of projectProspect.com saw Panik play for the 2nd time in 2 weeks and continued to like what he saw. Here’s his report:
I continue to be impressed by Joe Panik. He has a smooth, easy swing and a professional approach. He’s bigger and more of a physical presence than I expected, able to loft balls into the gaps. What’s more, he plays within his abilities and doesn’t try to do too much at the plate. Panik showed soft hands and natural ability turning the double play from second base. I haven’t seen his range tested at shortstop, but given what I’ve seen so far, second base looks like a more realistic long-term home for him than shortstop — he’s not super athletic with plus arm strength.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah, he’s had a lot of very positive things to say about Panik lately, which is very nice. Unfortunately, he’s balanced the Panik pumping out with his Surkamp bashing (recently tweeted that not only was Surkamp not a Top 100 prospect, he was probably only a fringe Top 500 prospect, which seems a little crazy to me).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Where did this “Crawdaddy” nickname come from? (a) he doesn’t seem like a player who deserves one yet and (b) few others use it here.
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
I think I coined it about 6 months ago, but I may have read it somewhere else first.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
If I’m honest, I have to say I cringe every time I read it, but I’m loathe to criticize all the great work you do around here.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 18, 2011 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
On the other hand, I also object to the idea that a player has to ‘deserve’ a nickname.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 18, 2011 8:07 AM PST up reply actions
I’m not wedded to the nickname and am open to suggestions. I seem to remember that some around here liked the term Crawfish.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I would advise you to ignore my complaining and keep doing whatever it is you are doing. I appreciate it.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 18, 2011 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
Happy 22nd Birthday, Hector!
It’s Hector Sanchez’s 22nd birthday today. Everybody should take a second to tweet him best wishes at:
@hect171189
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
OT
Looks like Joe Pun (of azgiants.com) has got a new job. I hope that this doesn’t greatly lower his output of Giants photography out of Scottsdale and the Phoenix area.
Congrats on the new job, Joe – and good luck!
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Joe's new business card:
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"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
OCCUPY PEORIA
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 17, 2011 9:06 AM PST up reply actions
good song on that topic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq3BYw4xjxE
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 17, 2011 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
I disagree.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 18, 2011 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
Winter lines - Thurs. 11/17
It was the final game for all the Giants prospects in the AFL, and they didn’t exactly wrap themselves in glory yesterday. Panik and Crawdaddy both ended with an o-fer – with Crawdaddy pulling a hat trick. Austin Fleet did put in a scoreless 2 innings on the mound (with 3 Ks), but then Ryan Bradley laid an egg out of the pen – giving up base hits to all 6 batters that he faced. When they told him to just go out there and do his best to emulate MadBum apparently nobody specified that he shouldn’t try to copy MadBum’s disastrous zero-inning game against Milwaukee this past summer. Outside of the country, the highlight was Tyler Graham getting 4 hits in 5 PAs down in Mexico.
J. Panik: 0-3
Crawdaddy: 0-3, 3 K
A. Fleet: 2 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 K, GO/AO=0 (25 of 33 pitches for strikes)
Ryan Bradley: 0 IP, 6 R, 6 H >>> all 6 batters he faced got a hit
Max Ramirez: 2-4, 2 1B, 1 K, RBI
Jean Machi: 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K (5 of 5 pitches for strikes)
Tyler Graham: 4-5, 3 1B, 1 2B, 1 K, CS (picked off)
J. Christian: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K, RBI
Alex Burg: 0-3, 1 BB
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Jon Mayo's season-ending top 25 AFL prospects list:
Gary Brown = #15, Joe Panik = #17
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111117&content_id=25995966&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
17. Gary Brown, OF, Giants: Scouts didn’t get a real long look at the outfield prospect as he appeared in just 11 games before shutting it down on Oct. 22 due to illness. There’s still a lot to be excited about his potential as a leadoff hitter and the speed that can change the game on both sides of the ball.
19. Joe Panik, INF, Giants: A bit of a surprise first-round pick for many, Panik went out and hit very well in the Northwest League. He continued to do so here against more advanced competition, hitting for average and getting on base. He also played second base exclusively, perhaps a sign of a permanent position switch from shortstop.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Your numbers don’t seem to be in agreeance with the excerpts. Were they 15 and 17 or 17 and 19?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
17 and 19
Lots of 3B’s on that list too.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Winter lines - Fri. 11/18
Yesterday’s (actually today’s in this case) highlight comes from Down Under. Alex Burg got multiple hits in both games of a doubleheader – going 5 for 8 in aggregate. Burg had a break-out season with the bat in SJ this summer and remains an intriguing prospect going forward due to his versatility (he can play C, 3B, and 1B). If he can keep up with the srong offense then he should be a useful bench player in SF in 2 or 3 years from now. Richmond will be the ultimate crucible for him next year. Meanwhile, down in Mexico Tyler Graham celebrated his arrival on the 40-man roster by going hitless in 4 ABs.
B. Belt: 1-5, 1 1B, 1 K
F. Pegs: 1-5, 1 3B
JC Perez: 0-3, 1 K, 1 Assist >>> threw runner out at 2B
Hector Sanchez: 1-4, 1 1B
Max Ramirez: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K
Tyler Graham: 0-4, 1 K
J. Christian: 1-4, 1 1B, CS
J. Monell: 0-1, 1 K
Alex Burg: (GAME 1) 3-3, 2 1B, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 1 SB, Sac Fly
Alex Burg: (GAME 2) 2-5, 2 1B
Cam Lamb: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. Blown Save (32 of 48 pitches for strikes)
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Winter lines - Sat. 11/19
The star of the day goes to Hector Sanchez down in Venezuela. Hector continued with his best one-man wrecking crew impression by reaching base in all 4 of his PAs, including his 4th HR. He ended up being only a triple away from a cycle. Down Under, Alex Burg continued to try to emulate Hector by getting a single and his league-leadng 5th HR (in only 11 games) in 6 ABs.
B. Belt: 0-3, 1 BB
F. Pegs: 2-5, 2 1B, RBI
JC Perez: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K, 1 RBI
O. Matos: 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 K, GO/AO=4/0
Hector Sanchez: 3-3, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI >>> .407/.447/.616/1.063 in 24 games
Jose Flores: 0-2, HBP
Max Ramirez: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K
Jean Machi: 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K, Save, GO/AO=2/0
Tyler Graham: 1-5, 1 2B, 1 K, SB
J. Christian: 1-5, 1 1B, 1 K, SB
J. Monell: 1-3, 1 2B
Alex Burg: 2-6, 1 1B, 1 HR, 2 RBI
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
More news from Down Under
Alex Burg has led his team, the Perth Heat, to an undefeated record through their first 11 games of the season. According to the game report (link below) the ABL will have this coming week off as Perth heads to Taiwan to compete in the “Asian Series” against the champions of the Taiwan, Japan, and Korea.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
wow, a World Series
pretty good for Burg this early in his career. Would be fun to watch too.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 21, 2011 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
Winter lines - Sun. 11/20
Justin Christian earned the star of the day by reaching base in all 5 of his PAs down in Mexico, including 3 hits and an RBI. Newly signed CF (a guy that Christian will likely be competing against for PT next year), Gregor Blanco also had a very nice day at the plate down in Venezuela. He reached base in 4 of his 5 PAs – including 3 hits (2 doubles) and an RBI. Blanco and his teammate, Hector Sanchez, are the 2 leading hitters on the Tiburones this winter.
B. Belt: 1-3, 1 1B
Hector Sanchez: 0-4
Gregor Blanco: 3-4, 1 1B, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, RBI >>> .317/.457/.475/.932 in 29 games
Max Ramirez: 0-3
Jean Machi: 1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, Save, GO/AO=1/1
Tyler Graham: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K
J. Christian: 3-3, 1 1B, 1 2B, 2 BB, RBI
J. Monell: 1-4, 1 1B, 2 K, Past Ball
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Winter lines - Tuesday 11/22
Tuesday’s stars were both older CF prospects batting leadoff. Tyler Graham got 3 singles in 6 PAs and stole 2 bases (his 10th on the year) to complete a picture-perfect game from the leadoff spot. Down in Venezuela, newly-signed veteran Gregor Blanco reached base in 3 of his 5 PAs – including a single and a triple to raise his season average to .329. Hector Sanchez had 2 hits in the same game to raise his season average up close to the .400 mark once again.
F. Pegs: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K, SB
O. Matos: 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, GO/AO=1/1
Hector Sanchez: 2-4, 2 1B, 2 K, RBI
Gregor Blanco: 2-4, 1 1B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 1 RBI
Max Ramirez: 0-4
Tyler Graham: 3-6, 3 1B, 1 K, 2 SB
J. Christian: 1-4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 3 RBI
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Winter lines - Wed. 11/23
Yesterday’s star was the newest guy in the org, Greagor Blanco. Blanco reached base in 5 of his 6 PAs – including 2 singles and a SB. He is trying his best to convince the Giants to give him a legit shot at winning the starting CF and leadoff spot in SF next year by putting up a .478 OBP and stealing 9 bases in 11 attempts in his first 31 games. In the same game, Blanco’s teammate, Hector Sanchez, hit his 5th HR of the season to raise his SLG above .600 through 27 games. Meanwhle, in Mexico, both Tyler Graham and Justin Christian flexed their muscles by hitting HRs.
F. Pegs: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K
JC Perez: 1-4, 1 1B, 2 K
O. Matos: 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 3 K >>> BAA=.191 & 16 K in 13.1 innings
Hector Sanchez: 1-4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 RBI
Ehire Adrianza: 0-3, 2 K
Gregor Blanco: 2-3, 2 1B, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 SB >>> .333/.478/.500/.978 in 31 games
Max Ramirez: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K
Tyler Graham: 1-4, 1 HR, 2 K, 1 RBI, 1 Sac Bunt
J. Christian: 1-5, 1 HR, 1 K, 1 RBI
J. Monell: 0-4, 1 K
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Thursday was a short schedule as only the Mexican and Venezuelan leagues had games. The star of the day was Gregor Blanco. He continued to showcase his leadoff credentials by reaching base in 3 of his 4 PAs – including multiple BBs for the 2nd straight day – and stealing his 10th base (out of 12 attempts) of the season. Blanco has gotten a hit in all 7 games that he’s played since the Giants signed him as a minor league free agent – putting up the following stat line in those 7 games: .522/.667/.696/1.363 with 10 BBs
Hector Sanchez: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB
Gregor Blanco: 1-2, 1 1B, 2 BB, 1 SB
Jean Machi: 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, GO/AO=3/0
Tyler Graham: 1-5, 1 1B, 1 K, 1 Sac Bunt
J. Christian: 2-5, 2 2B, 1 RBI
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Justin christans been doing pretty good as well has he not?
by Romosexual42 on Nov 25, 2011 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
Not really
Pretty average stuff fo rthe league he’s in. Through 21 games:
.281/.347/.449/.796 with 6 doubles and 3 HRs
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Winter lines - Friday 11/25
The big news was that Hector Sanchez was removed from his game in the bottom of the 1st inning after being hurt while being thrown out at home on a single to RF. No news on the extent of his problems beyond reports from the Sharks Spanish language website of him experiencing “physical discomfort.” Hector already missed about 7 days back in October after tweaking his knee in another play at the plate where he was the catcher. The Giants must cringe every time there’s a play at the plate involving one of their catchers these days. In the same game that Hector was removed from, Gregor Blanco had another multi-hit game and continued to be on fire with the bat in his hands every since the Giants signed him to the new contract. In other news, Andres Torres, a guy that will likely be fighting for a job against Blanco this coming spring, played his first game in the PRWL and went 1 for 3 with a BB. Brandon Belt hasn’t played a game down in the DomRep for about a week. I wonder if he jsut took some time off to spend the Thanksgiving holiday back in the States with his family or has he shut it down for good?
Hector Sanchez: 0-0, 1 BB >>> replaced in top of 2nd
Gregor Blanco: 2-5, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 K, 2 RBI
Jose Flores: 1-2, 1 2B
Tyler Graham: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K
Andres Torres: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That Q&A he did with Jayme Sire last week mentioned that he was going to be heading back home for Thanksgiving and hay he was really looking forward to resting awhile. I got the impression he was going to shut it down for a few weeks and then start conditioning himself for ST stateside. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s done with wintr ball.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
centerfield logjam
chainsaw will be running by March.
Torres now has to beat out Blanco, Christian (he’s not a prospect, per Sabean), and Graham (got put on the 40 man, so he must be a prospect).
Then there’s Melky who Sabean I think said can play center. Many folks at this site say he can’t, but gets pushed to center if Belt and Huff both hit in the Spring, or if Beltran or Cuddyer or Willingham is signed.
We need a separate thread on Melky’s fielding. Classic tweener.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
No way Torres has to beat out Blanco
Blanco is definitely lower on the depth chart. Same goes for Christian and Graham – Torres’ resume is far, far better than either of those guys. They have to beat Torres to get playing time, which is possible, but right now I’d say Torres is the 4th OF (Belt, Cabrera, Schierholtz), maybe even a starter. As the offseason progresses, he may get lower on the depth chart, but I can’t see him not being with the team next year (if he gets non-tendered he’ll be back) and I certainly can’t see him not making the major league roster out of ST.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
probly that's it
Just funny that they are stockpiling CF / leadoff guys. Insurance for a big set of possibilities. The biggest of those is that Andres is again not hitting well, or gets hurt.
I like defensive switches as a tactic, and I think we will see a lot of them with the lineups we are looking at, and the 1-0 and 2-1 games we hope to win. Belt from OF to first, Melky from CF to LF, and others we haven’t thought of. Crawford in for Fontenot.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 26, 2011 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
For defensive switches to work, you have to have big bat, no field types.
Burrell was a good example of this. Huff is not.
I disagree
I think that Blanco has just as legit of a shot to make the team in spring training as Torres did before the 2009 season. I also think that one of the big reasons that Graham was put on the 40-man roster and Blanco was signed was to provide leverage in the Torres’ contract negotiations and to light a fire under Andres. Sabes basically told Andres and his agent that they have enough options in CF to DFA Torres should he even think about insisting on arbitration. IMO, if Andres doesn’t accept a salary with a base of about $1M and incentives that would take it up to about $2M then he’s gone. Whatever happens, I believe that Graham, Christian, Blanco and Torres (if he’s still on the team) will fight it out for the starting CF/4th OF spot (depending on whether we sign a Beltran, Willingham, etc.) in spring training next year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That would be sad. Blanco and Christian should not be anywhere near a starting position o a team that has aspirations above last place, and Graham on a major league roster at all (other than Darren Ford like appearances here and there) would be a bit of a joke. I can’t imagine an of them reasonably taking a roster spot away from Peguero next year (who will be on his last option year and needing to start getting his major league feet wet).
As for Torres, it’s worth noting that he produced about as much value last year (or in 2009) as Blanco has in his three year career (about 1700 innings). That’s by fWAR, which likes Blanco much better than rWAR, where Blanco is a career -0.2.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 27, 2011 6:35 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree it would be sad, but Sabean likes to hardball his low money contracts. With Torres age he can get away with it. He did this to Uribe going into 2010. I think that’s why Juan ultimately took that extra bit of cash instead of coming back, he mentioned being treated really well by Agent Ned, reverse dig at Sabean that might be directly linked to that 2010 negotiation.
One of Blanco Christian and Graham has to be the first off the 40 man.
hardball tactics and using the media to negotiate
a recent theme with Sabean. Telling Pablo a year ago to get in shape or get sent to the minors was another case. Huff this year being told there’s no guaranteed position.
My guess is that Torres has another couple good years in him. Using the winter to re calibrate his meds is key. Good medical people know how to do this.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 27, 2011 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
Hardball tactics isn’t the same thing in m mind as filling major league rosters win minor league org fill. He just gave $10 million away to two guys who collectively threw 114 innings last year. Why obsess over $2mil to a guy who at worst a fantastic utility OF?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I agree, they should just pay Torres a repeat contract or even his arb award. I like those 114 inning guys as well though!
He also did the hardball dance with Mota last year, Mota turned out to be a great clean up guy and was a great leader in the clubhouse. Much more so than sulky Miggy Tejada who was banded around as a role model for all the latin guys. If thats a role model I’d hate to see the Giants version of a distraction. (I think this is a patronizing attitude personally – the Latin guys do just fine for themselves they don’t need a damn spokesman or guy to look up to)
Because we have to play PR games with Zito, I bet Mota is the first casualty of the pen.
I wasn’t advocating that the Giants give Blanco, Christian or Graham a spot on the 25 man out of ST next year. I was just stating what I believe that Sbaes & Co. have in mind for the CF position this offseason and in ST. Can you give me any other reason why Sabes just put Graham on the 40-man roster and left Christian on it? As for Blanco, specifically, I agree with you that he’s very unlikely to all of a sudden become a legit major league caliber leadoff hitter at this late date in his career. However, everybody would have said the same thing about Andres Torres prior to the 2009 season. I believe that Sabes is hoping that one of those 3 journeyman CF can pull a Torres and all of a sudden put it all together in their late-20s.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Maybe
And I wouldn’t put it past them to do so – this org has done a damned good job of finding great players for no money AND knowing when they’re done – Huff’s the only one they whiffed on, though I think they needed to bring at least one of Huff and Uribe back and they made the right choice in that regard (Uribe did produce 1 WAR more than Huff, but that was entirely based on position, defense, and baserunning which are less reliable than the 55 wRC+ he put up against Huff’s 84, and missing half a season isn’t good either). Huff, Uribe, Torres, Medders, Miller, Casilla, Fontenot, Ramirez, Vogelsong, Lopez…Evan Crawford is the best thing they gave up to get any of those guys, no free agents over $5M other than the Huff re-signing, and Crawford is a 23-year-old who had a good-not-great year in A+. Over two years, that’s a damned impressive haul of good production for little investment and a pretty astounding ability to recognize when a player is done.
Still, I don’t see Blanco, Graham, or Christian outplaying Torres anytime soon – IMO Torres is a borderline starter (depending on where Belt goes) and Christian’s the 2nd best player but only a 5th OF.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
The Graham/Ford swap makes sense to me (equally useless at hitting, but if you need a speedy PR/defensive OF guy for a few days while Torres or whoever has an ailing calf, then there’s your guy). Keeping Christian on the 40 man? Not sure I can explain it really. He was the Mexican League MVP last winter, but again he’s not likely to be as good as Torres. A lot of it does look to be posturing with Torres agent, but that thought really fills me with bile.
Maybe Goofus is right and they’re so concerned with his meds issue that they’re trying to line up replacements for him. I’d still rather see peguero on the roster than any of that group, though.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I heartily agree that Frankie Pegs is a better long-term prospect than the other guys, but I don’t want to see him on the 25-man next year because I don’t think that he’s at all ready for the majors. I would lump Frankie in with Hector in terms of needing at least 3 months in Fresno (and likley much longer) before I would even think of bringing him up to SF.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Winter lines - Sat. 11/26
Well, it looks as if the Hector Sanchez watch is over as soon as it began. Hector was back in the lineup and played a full game down in Venezuela just 1 night after being removed from a game in the 2nd inning after a collision at the plate. Whew, that’s good news. Hector had a single in 4 ABs, but the star of the day was, once again, Hector’s teammate Gregor Blanco. Blanco got 2 hits (including a HR) and 2 RBI from the leadoff spot and he still hasn’t gone without a hit in any of the 9 games that he’s played in since the Giants signed him. He’s raised his average over 40 points in that span.
JC Perez: 2-4, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 K
Hector Sanchez: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 K
Gregor Blanco: 2-4, 1 1B, 1 HR, 2 RBI >>> .345/.483/.529/1.013 in 34 games (119 ABs)
Tyler Graham: 1-4, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K, RBI
J. Christian (Game 1): 0-2, 1 BB
J. Christian (Game 2): 1-2, 1 1B, 1 BB, 2 SB
Andres Torres: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 BB, 1 K
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I want Sanchez to get significant big league ABs in 2012
a catcher could be traded within a year: Susac, Hector, or Joseph. Getting a look at Hector either raises his trade value, (or lowers it), or lets the Giants choose to keep him as switch hitting PH / backup C.
Sure, his ABs will be limited while backing up Posey. So after a month or so, swap him with Chris Stewart in Fresno, then repeat. That was done recently with another prospect being used as a backup—Burriss? Belt? both of those?
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 27, 2011 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
I’ve seen nothing to begin to suggest that Sanchez is ready for the major leagues, much less significant major league time. I do have about a half seasons evidence that he wasn’t ready for AAA at bats last year.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
by Roger on Nov 27, 2011 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
optimism
OK, I saw a few decent atbats on TV from Hector. Overall OPS of 646 compared to Stew and Whitey at 592 and 574. Who looks like the backup? Could be any of em. Hector has an upside.
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 27, 2011 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
I’m with Roger on this one. Hector not only needs many more ABs in Fresno next year, but he needs to vastly improve how he calls a game and manage a big league pitching staff from behind the plate. A minimum of 3 months with Steve Decker mentoring him every day of the week should go a long way to making him a more complete player. Hector is just too good of a long-term prospect to possibly ruin him by rushing him to the big leagues only to sit on the bench behind Buster in 2012. Chris Stewart or some other vet catcher should fill the backup catcher role next year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
see you in July, Hector
Marvin Barrios, come on I'll show you your bedroom. Don't stay on the phone too long to Panama, please.
by foothillsfan on Nov 28, 2011 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
Winter lines - Sunday 11/27
Hector Sanchez continued to be a 1-man wrecking crew at the plate down in Venezuela by reaching base in 3 of his 4 PAs – including his 6th HR of the season. Hector leads the entire Venezuelan Winter League in BA, SLG and OPS and is 3rd in OBP – and would likely be 1st or 2nd in HRs if he hadn’t lost 7 games due to injury. For the season he has put up the following offensive stats:
.389/.442/.611/1.053 with 6 HR & 6 doubles in 108 ABs over 31 games
If the season ended today, Hector would be the runaway MVP of the league for his 1st place Sharks. Hector’s teammate, Gregor Blanco, had another very nice game at the plate by reaching base in 2 of his 5 PAs and driving in 2 runs. Blanco leads the VWL in OBP, by a wide margin, at a .481 pace and would likely be somewhere between 3rd and 5th on the MVP ballot if the season ended today.
JC Perez: 1-5, 1 3B, 1 K
Hector Sanchez: 2-3, 1 1B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 RBI >>> 6th HR in only 31 games
Gregor Blanco: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 RBI >>> 31 BBs in only 35 games
Max Ramirez: 0-4
Jean Machi: 0.1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 1 K, GO/AO=0/0
Tyler Graham: 1-3, 1 1B, 1 K
Andres Torres: 1-5, 1 2B, 3 K
Johnny Monell: 0-2, 1 K >>> game suspended in the 4th inning
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
FLA-Giant
Thank you for the update on the kids, but then I appreciate most all of your insights.
You should have your own website!
I don’t know, I have a built-in audience here and no management responsibilities, so it seems like a good fit to me.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’ve never done a mock draft and I don’t plan to do one in the forseeable future. I just don’t have the insight into what all of the other 29 teams might be thinking to venture a good guess on which player would go to which team beyond the first 3-5 players each year. Most mock drafts that I’ve seen are pretty useless unless you just want to stir up arguments – certainly any mock draft that comes out anytime sooner than about 2 weeks before the actual draft are just exercises in futility. I prefer reading and creating lists of players in terms of BPA (like the top 50/top 100/Top 200 lists that BA and others post every once in a while).
It’s way too early to do anything more than put forward wild-ass guesses now, because there will be big moves up and down during the 2012 spring HS and college seasons, but my current thoughts are that the Giants will not use the #20 pick for a SS unless Deven Marrero (of AZ State) or Carlos Correa (high schooler) should inexpicably fall to them. Marrero especially would be a no-brainer as he is a college position player that performed well in the Cape Cod League – that has John Barr written all over it. I see the Giants going with pitching (high school or college), corner OF (college) or 3B (college) with their #20 pick. The draft pool appears to be deep in HS pitchers and a little less deep in HS position players, but not very deep in college postion players or pitchers.
A college SS that I like a lot and who could be a good value for the Giants in the 3rd round, or later, is Nolan Fontana of the Univ. of Florida. High school SS that are highly-ranked and who will likely go off the board anywhere from the middle of the 1st round to the end of the 2nd round are: Gavin Cecchini, Jesmuel Valentin, Addison Russell and Corey Seager
The guy that currently tops my Giants wish list is Victor Roache, the power-hitting RF from Georgia Southern Univ. who led the NCAA in HRs in 2011 and then performed well on the Cape this past summer. Here’s a clip of him before and during the 2011 Cape Cod League All-Star Game in Fenway Park:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJPvGXpg1s8&feature=related
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I was looking at clips of Roache today actually – he moves pretty well for a power hitter. He had a great year last year, improving the K rate a lot to go along with those long balls. I would love that pick. Minorleaguerundown has him 19th. I have to imagine if he has as good a season he’s going top ten.
I was looking at Correa also – huge dude – and thought that Jesmuel Valentin looked pretty good himself. If he’s in the 20s like Kelton Wong was last year I could see the Giants jumping on him. There isn’t a lot of video I could find on either of the PR academy guys but you have to love Valentin’s background. He seems like a hustler from the reports I read – he should get a lot of attention because of that under-armour game mvp.
So what’s your take on Kenny Diekroeger? He seems like he’ll sink or swim, I was thinking he could be a Barr type if he drops to the 2nd as well.
It will be interesting to see how or if the new cba affects drafting strategies in the next few years.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
No more Josh Bell flier picks in later rounds
That’s pretty clear – I think the draft order will more closely reflect the actual talent of the players, as teams will be loathe to go over-slot but agents will counter that by preventing under-slot bonuses as much as possible. So they’ll figure they might as well get the best talent available as they won’t pay him over the slot recommendation and will end up paying close to it no matter what. The new CBA definitely took money out of the draft so agents will be looking to put as much back in as possible.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I think teams will still have the ability to do one Bell type flyer if they combine it with a safe singable first round guy. But I don’t think that this CBA encourages BPA picks because somewhere pretty high up the incentive for HS picks to take the money will lose its grip and you’d think more of them will forgo signing and head to college. As we’re now hearing that teams who don’t sign picks won’t be able to repurpose the money it’s going to be a significant risk to take HS in mid to late 1st round or supp I’d think.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
It will be very interesting to see how the draft evolves. I think that it will take at least a few years for a team, or teams, to figure out the best way to manipulate the new rules to gain an advantage over most other teams. I’ll be very interested to see that result. I have a feeling that it’s going to take some advanced mathematical modelling to come up with the best approach.
Off the top of my head, I think that signability in the top rounds will become much more important to all the teams. This will likely help the college juniors. I also think that we’ll be seeing the vast majority of the fake posturing by high school prospects, along with over-the-top bonus demands, will be set aside. Teams just won’t want to take any chance on a prospect that they don’t feel is being straight with them in trems of how much it will take to get them to turn pro and forego college.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Signability really becomes an interesting issue...
I’m of the opinion that a lot of signability issues may have been because of the system. I think that hot prospects dropped because they could, and that they knew they could leverage their signability into a lot more money. Now that the money is capped, they no longer have the option of leveraging signability into an extra million or two or five. This raises the next question.
Would a hot HS prospect who would only sign for $5mm in the 2011 draft be willing to forgo college for only $1-2mm?? I think the answer is still, yes, they would, at least for 99% of them. It’s really hard to turn down $1-2mm in present value for the potential of going to college and increasing draft value by $1-200k at most all the while risking injury and not getting any money.
I think the real difference maker is going to be budget constraints on the mid and late rounds. It will be almost impossible to toss an extra $25-50k at multiple mid to late round draft picks who have a lot of upside, but are raw or have flaws that kept them out of the top 2-3 rounds. Those prospects will still be there mid-late draft, but may not be signable. Without the extra $25-50k, they may feel they should go to college or continue with college.
Maybe that is one way to game the system Nivra – make safe slightly below slot picks early on so you have enough in your budget to go 25-50K over slot to get those guys in the last rounds. If you can carve away 100K from the first 4 rounds maybe you have that extra 400K to dish out to value picks in the teens/twenties.
I do think the changes will at least initially benefit the Giants. Sabean has shown no interest in gaming the system. Teams stocking up on Type B’s through trades or weird valuations on bullpen guys is a thing of the past. That is something the G’s just didn’t do anyway. So from a “playing it straight” standpoint, the Giants don’t have to make any adjustments. Also he stopped punting draft picks after 04/05 with Tucker/Benitez et al, but now its virtually impossible to do that.
It seems with a slightly weak college class it should be pretty interesting right away as far as signability concerns.
That’s kind of what the Pirates did with the Tony Sanchez draft, but the problem is that top 10 picks are much more reliable than 4-10 rounders or later, so it can tip the risk/reward balance a little far away from the reward side.
I like Fla think it might take a few years before teams start to figure out the strategy for this system, and of course, it’s likely to change again some in five years, so they might be like Generals learning to fight the last war by the time they get a handle on it.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I agree your best shot is up front. The Giants do have some history of success in the past decade with players in the teens and twenties. Don’t know of any instances where an extra 50K won them over though. Ishikawa is the only late rounder that comes to mind who got overslot.
Good point
For a top-10 pick, I think it would be worth going all in, even if you had to sign filler in the 8th, 9th, 10th to save the dough to pay him.
that’s another strategy: taking safe college guys who are expected to sign cheap (ie, weren’t expected to go in the top-10 rounds) in rounds 6-10, so you can go heavy spending on your 1st round choice, and then getting 2nd and 3rd round high school guys other teams are too afraid to draft. $1m saved in rounds 5-10 could go a long way to getting an impact HS player who falls. Also might be able to do a little more by going a little over and paying the tax (up until the point you don’t lose a draft pick).
by OrgoneDonor on Nov 29, 2011 11:35 PM PST up reply actions
$1mm saved? lol.
I think the expected costs of rounds 5-10 is probably around $500k-750k.
are you so sure? can we really say? let's do math
from rounds 11-40, for a total of 30 picks, the allowance is up to $100k per. That’s $3million in allowance.
But it doesn’t actually count to the new allowance. The draft cap in 2012 is $185m for all teams for the first 10 rounds. Now think about that. THE ENTIRE 2011 draft cost was $228m.
So, with enormous amounts of money being thrown around by some teams like the Pirates, Nationals, and Royals in 2011 accounting for much of that, spending caps will move every team’s expenditure to a mean determined by # of picks and draft order.
That means each of these picks will have higher slots.
The average for all 30 teams would be $6m for only the first 10 rounds on average.
The expected total range is $11.5 to $4.5m. The teams erring to the high side will have extra cap space for more valuable picks, while teams that don’t even pick in the first round will still have 75% of the cap.(http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7270203/baseball-new-labor-deal-truly-historic-one)
Of course first rounders will comprise much of the value, so even if we cut that in half, assuming half goes to first/supp round picks, that leaves $3m for rounds 2-10. If you sign guys at $200k on average for rounds 4-10 (7 picks), you’d have spent $1.4m, which is a reasonable allowance for rounds 2 and 3 to have $1.6m to work with. More compensation picks would increase the cap by an appropriate slot.
So then you have $1.4m for rounds 4 through 10, 7 in total. If you instead draft safe and spend $75k/per, that’s $525k spent in total.
You are left with $875k you can spend + 5% more of the total value of the slots, estimated here at $1.4m, without losing future picks. That increases your spending limit by $70k, and your total to $945k. Pretty close to a $1m in this hypothetical, where a team is at the low end of the spending cap but still has a first and supp round pick.
(You could also sign everybody rounds 1-10 at slot except one guy you pay $600k extra to.)
Of course, in my breakdown, I used rounds 4-10 instead of 5-10.
But the point stands; MLB will expect to allocate more money throughout the first 10 rounds in hopes that the best talent is drafted in order of value without crazy bonuses from negotiating leverage. Who knows what we will get, but there will definitely be creative strategies to get impact talent.
I think that you’re right about the new rules helping the Giants. It could help a lot, or jsut a little, but I can’t see how it will hurt them in terms of prospects and drafting – except for the fact htat they’re never going to be able to qualify for the “small market lotto” picks at the end of the first round (which begins in the 2013 draft). Let’s not forget that the new rules also put big constraints on how much money teams can spend on IFAs, which the Giants had already been doing anyway in the last few years.
I think that it’s clear, at least to begin with, that the new rules will favor teams that are good judges of 2nd-, 3rd- and 4th-tier talent in the draft and the IFA market. The Giants have shown that they’re one of the better orgs for this over the past 3-5 years.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The Royals, Braves, Rays, and Phillies haven’t done too bad themselves.
Heck, most of their top prospects weren’t drafted in the 1st round (If we count for the Royals that they already graduated Moose and Hosmer).
by OrgoneDonor on Nov 29, 2011 11:37 PM PST up reply actions
I was thinking the same thing earlier today
And looking at the Giants 2011 draft as an example strategy going forward:
Use 1st pick on an easy sign for cheap. (Panik)
Use 1st Supp pick on a relatively easy HS signing for relatively cheap. (Crick)
Put savings into above slot 2nd rounder who fell b/c of signability (Susac)
Put more savings into above slot 7th round pick who fell due to injury concerns (Josh Osich)
One could make the argument that, counting Oropesa in the 3rd round as well, the Giants got roughly 5 first/supp round talents with only two first round picks. Possible that that could have been done under 2012 draft spending rules.
by OrgoneDonor on Nov 29, 2011 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
Still wish theyd been the one to take a flyer on Bell with the Crick pick (during the draft live, I was actually hoping they’d take Bell with the Panik pick), but I guess I need to give that one up at some point.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
What was your reaction to Panik? I just started laughing. The MLB network guys were completely unprepared.
I’ll be completely honest. I was watching the draft live and as the Giants pick came up my wife asked me, who do want them to pick? And I started saying: “they know a whole lot more about these players than I do and they’ve had a lot of success lately, so I guess I’ll trust them and be fine with whatever they do here…” [Panik’s name is announced]
“… EXCEPT THAT.”
I’ve obviously come back pretty far from that ledge and should retreat back to trusting their ability to know what they’re doing way more than I do, but I really did have a jones for Bell.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I would have loved Bell but figured it wasn’t like them to stretch for big money. I was expecting Mahtook or Bud Norris/some HS upside pitcher. The combo of Selig butchering the name and the MLB guys having nothing prepared to rave about and then the shot of the smug Giants draft room… It was high comedy for me.
I tend to believe them when they said they were interested in the CA HS pitchers who got snagged in front, namely Ross and Stephenson. Its hard to trust the Giants, but year by year I get a little more comfortable with the concept.
Derek Norris?
It would be quite a trick to draft Bud Norris.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Anybody who
hates the Taco Bell comm-…
Nice catch. I meant Daniel Norris who went in the third to Toronto. I was also thinking about Henry Owens who went 1st sup to Bosox.
Right
Derek Norris is that Nats catcher. Dammit, now I can’t even feel superior to you.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Giants December camp in Scottdale begins today
A ton of the minor leaguers will be in Scottsdale for the next 3 weeks for a December training camp. It seems like mostly the younger and newer guys are attending, but even some of the more veteran ones like SurKamp and Hembree will be there. If you’re going to be inthe area it might be possible to see the kids before they start charging the big bucks for ST games.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Semi OT
So I’m done with finals on December 10th. Would that be a good date to start the Community Prospect List discussions and voting? And should we all just agree that Gary Brown is #1 or should we actually have a vote on that one?
I vote for waiting until the 14th. That’s when Baggs’ list for BA.com will be published. Also, the Winter Meetings will be over with and we’ll be past the Dec 12th deadline for offering arb to guys like Keppinger, Torres, Fontenot, etc., that are still under team control.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Oh, and I think we should vote for #1. Even if the outcome seems a forgone conclusion, the reasoning that people give is often interersting.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
BA Top 10
I can save you time on waiting for the BA list. BA’s Top 10 is:
1. Brown
2. Joseph
3. Hembree
4. Panik
5. Peguero
6. Susac
7. Surkamp
8. Crick
9. Adrianza
10. Sanchez
After listening to their last podcast, I’d note it’s important to call it the BA list rather than Baggs’ list, as John Manual noted that there probably isn’t a single list, even the one’s Jim Callis does, that don’t have players moved around somewhat by the editorial group after the original compiler has turned in his list and pages. The writeups are all Baggs’, but the list isn’t necessarily.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Wow, on Hembree. It will be interesting to see if we can get Baggs to tell us whether he had Heath that high on his list or if others jumped him up that high. So, correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t the BA.com official release on the 14th include a top 30 for subscribers to read?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
No the top 30 list doesn’t show up anywhere until the Prospect Handbook gets mailed out. The site and the magazine only give the top 10 (because you can’t give away the milk if you want people to buy the cow). Although, the chat (which is subscriber only) that Baggs will conduct on the 14th, when the Giants list is officially unveiled on the site typically gives a few sneak peaks of where people fall on the list in the 11-30 range.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Winter lines - Monday 11/28
Only 2 games were scheduled across all 5 active leagues, and Jean Machi was the only Giants prospect that played. Machi has quietly had a very good season down in Venezuela, being used mainly as a closer. Could Sabes have found another late-bloomer for the pen along the lines of Santiago Casilla? Here are Machi’s Venezuelan stats:
G=18, IP=18.2, ERA=1.45, WHIP=.96, K/9=7.2, BB/9=.96, K/BB=7.5, GO/AO=4.38
Jean Machi: 1.1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 K, GO/AO=2/0
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Mike Newman on Wheeler, Panik, Brown
Comment From Bryan
Better long term arm: Z. Wheeler or J. Odorizzi
Mike Newman: I’ve only seen Wheeler, and he’s in the top-5 of righties I’ve ever scouted.
Comment From Bobby
Joe Panik, thoughts, comments?
Mike Newman: Nice player….
http://scoutingthesally.com/2011-major-league-baseball-draft-prospect-joe-panik-ss-st-johns/
I scouted him in the spring versus Jed Bradley. I really should promote more of my own stuff on here. I keep forgetting 99% of Fangraphs readers have never heard of Scouting The Sally.
Comment From Brighid
Which one of the Mets top 2 pitching prospects has a brighter future — Harvey or Wheeler — or are they both cursed to fail because they are Met pitching prospects?
Mike Newman: I give Wheeler the edge due to age, but it’s pretty close.
Comment From Bryan
Odds of Gary Brown being called up this year?
Mike Newman: See Francisco Peguero…. Yes, Brown is better, but Peguero also crushed the Cal at the same age and he’s not there yet. For college hitters, I generally throw Cal numbers out.
Yeah, I remember that Newman had really glowing things to say about Wheeler when he scouted him a couple times back when he came off the injury list in 2010.
As for comparing Peguero’s 2011 season in the EL to what we might expect from Brown in 2012, he neglects to mention that Frankie sat out the first 2 months of this season with a leg injury, then rehabbed for several weeks in the Cal League before making his debut in AA in June. He had only a little over 2 months in AA, so unless he’s prdicting that Brown will miss the first 2.5 months of the EL season in 2012 the comparison is not a good one. That being said, I would agree with his general prinicple that Brown needs a full year in the EL and should not be a candidate for promotion to the majors before the September roster relaxation.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Has anyone seen Brown’s splits from last year? His numbers against LHP are so extraordinary (1.216 OPS) that it makes me wonder somewhat about how he handled RHP this year, but I can’t find the numbers, nor the number of PA behind those stats against LHP, so it’s hard to tell.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
I think he had somewhere around 80-95PA agains LHP
And he was benched against a number of lefties (pointed out in an interview somewhere, but Gary said that it was just chance that they rested him against LHP a few times, but who knows, his coaches might have seen something).
Pretty awesome that his .900+OPS was almost entirely against RHP. Bodes well in avoiding a platoon split. The LHP sample is too small, but given normal platoon advantages, it’s quite possible that he may mash lefties in his career.
by OrgoneDonor on Nov 29, 2011 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
"I've only seen Wheeler, and he's in the top-5 of righties I've ever scouted."
Reading that broke my heart. I smoked and paced in a circle for a good long while.
Coming after the Baer/Sabean/Bochy/Evans press conference today where they were lukewarm about re-signing Beltran, I felt totally resigned to defeat and watching the best core in baseball (and that this franchise has seen for a long time)—Cain, Lincecum, MadBum, Pablo, Buster, and to a lesser extent Wilson, Romo, Nate, and Belt—fail to win another championship together.
I care too much about this stuff.
Is that the best core in baseball? Seems a pretty questionable assertion. And “only” winning one championship is hardly an indictment of a group. I grew up watching a team with 5 future HOF as a core never win a single championship. The Phillies right now, who developed a pretty great core in the mid-decade and have added to great starting pitchers to the mix have only one championship to go along with a second WS appearance, a NLCS loss, and two NLDS losses in the last 5 years. The Rays (who I think probably have developed the best core of anybody in baseball) has yet to get a championship, as have the Rangers (who also have a pretty fantastic core) although they’ll be back I’m sure. Even the Cards (for whom Pujols made a great core all by himself) managed two championships, and both somehow seemed slightly undeserved, although obviously there’s no reason for St.L fans to apologize for them.
In sum: a ring is a great thing.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Those are all good cores. The Rays have the benefit of Longo’s insanely sweet hometown discount. I am jealous of the Rangers middle infielders. They are far and away the best combo in MLB. Kinsler does the occasional bonehead baserunning miscue, but he’s getting better at staying healthy and is a pretty sweet player when he’s on.
The Ring is the Thing. Also, playoff baseball is completely addicting.
Of course you could debate the assertion regarding who has the best core
But I think having 3 of the top 10-15 SP in baseball—or three clear #1’s and a franchise SS/GG Catcher and a 3B capable of MVP performance (ie, a 6win season in 466PA) is pretty spectacular.
I would say the Rangers have the best position player core, and depending on how Jennings and Moore perform next year, the Rays may have the best overall core.
But this is something I think about a lot, and have been thinking of doing an article looking at the core of all MLB teams to try to predict who will be the strongest contenders over the coming decade. Might be fun.
How about this for the rules of evaluating a team's core:
Divide them by SP, position players, and RP.
Give each SP a ranking (1-5, referring to #1 – #5 starters, respectively; very subjective for younger pitchers). If a SP or RP has an injury history, he gets a . If he has a significant history of durability, he gets a . Ie, Matt Cain: 1 and Jair Jurrjens: 2
Each position player is ranked between:
1. cost-controlled regular – Consistent 1-2.5 WAR player who stays healthy.
2. occasional all-star – Consistent 2-3.5 WAR performer with occasional 4-5WAR seasons. May have one or two great seasons, or the potential to have such. Think of guys like Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson before 2011
3. regular all-star – a guy who consistently performs among the best in the league at his position, 3-5 WAR on average (Think Brandon Phillips, Rickie Weeks, Michael Bourn)
3A – Regular all-star performance at a position that, league-wide, is lacking in top-end talent (Ie, SS, C, CF, and 3B).
4- MVP Contender – 4-6+ WAR player with possibility of winning/contender for an MVP award
4A – MVP Contender at position of scarcity: C, SS, CF, or 3B.
Injury and durability histories also should merit a +/-, but we get into a lot of subjectivity. Ie, Posey (assuming he returns to 2010 Buster) and Pablo don’t deserve a minus as their injuries do not indicate a lack of durability or reflect upon them as injury prone. Guys like Nate, Freddy, Coco Crisp etc, would deserve a -. Prince Fielder would get a +.
For a player to be considered part of the ‘Core’ he has to have been developed or acquired very early in his career by the team he plays for. He should also be pre-FA or have signed an extension going into his FA years (ie Cain, McCann). Players who have been extended must be in their primes (Ie, Chipper is not on this boat).
And finally, the “Best Core” candidates:
Rays
Rangers
Giants
Braves
others that may merit an argument:
Marlins
Royals
Yankees
Red Sox
…
oops, unintentional strikeout it seems.
Supposed to say that a player gets a (-) if he has a history of injury, a (+) if he has a history of durability.
Examples: Matt Cain (1+); Jair Jurrjens (2-)
I like those tiers. If the Braves had one more bat and a non-jackass manager they would be pretty dope. The Rangers are a pretty good team. The Rays benefit greatly from Price/Longo and the best underrated player in bezball Zobrist. Its pretty amazing how they’ve hung on and battled the evil empires though.
The Marlins are an evil organization, I refuse to give them credit, the Royals will find a way to screw up that great young cast and the other two are always going to be rockin’ in the free world.
haha
I also hate the marlins, but they have Stanton, who is #1 on my all-envy team. The Royals have a serious problem with rushing their pitchers, and look, they almost all had a season-long meltdown in 2011.
I see the Giants and Braves battling in the post season for the rest of the 2010’s, and the Rays and Rangers doing so in the AL.
I still think the Giants are the best though. If Gary Brown can turn into a (3A), Joe Panik into a (2/3) if he’s permanently moved to 2B and Belt into a (3)… sorry…im drooling.
Totally Agree
nice throw down of the core groups, I kind of felt that way, but its nice to see it spelled out.
We can’t go there, gotta just be thankful for MadBum… But he was just sitting there while we scooped up Fairley, Williams… Culberson… errr.
Stanton is a man among boys and he’s not even all growns up yet. I hate the Marlins.
On a More Serious Note
I think you have to give the advantage to the Braves. Tons of pitching, and backups to that? They have the best pen in baseball, the best catcher, some good vets and if they can get Heywood straight… Mano.
Texas is pretty good too though. Strong up the middle, good sluggers, I think getting Beltre was an awesome move, the difference between him and Young on D got them out of the TB series IMO.
Neither team has the established aces we have though.
Rangers v Giants core comparison 2012 and beyond
Rangers
SP:
Derek Holland (3/4-)
Colby Lewis (4-)
Don’t know about injury history, but his record looks like it. need more info
Matt Harrison (3/4)
1 year as starter at MLB level
Alexi Ogando (3-)
1 year as starter, fell apart at end of season
RP (2011/2010/2009 WAR)
Neftali Feliz – Closer. Considered Elite.
1.6/2.3/1.6
(Most of their previous ‘core’ relievers are now starters)
Position players:
Andrus, SS: (2A)
avg 2.5WAR/season, 3.5 WAR best season but at 22 in MLB; may be moved up to 3A if he continues to improve, develops some power or increases BA/OBP to elite levels
Kinsler, 2B: (3)
averaged >4WAR/season every season, 5.4WAR peak
Hamilton, LF: (3/4-)
Seasons by declining bWAR: 7.0, 5.4, 3.6, 2.7, 1.5. With injury history, hard to put him in clear 4 territory with only 2 of 5 seasons > 5WAR. One of the most overrated players in baseball, IMO.
Nelson Cruz, RF: (2-).
Never exceeded 515PA, 4.3WAR best season
All in all pretty good, but few players with clean histories of health. Napoli and Beltre add a lot of value too, but don’t fit the “core” definition.
Giants
SP:
Lincecum (1+)
Never missed a day of work in four seasons, never had an injury in entire career.
Cain (1++)
Never missed a start in 7 seasons of MLB ball, one injury while a prospect, 6 seasons of 30+ starts, 5 seasons of 200+ IP. He gets an extra + for being so remarkable in this regard; this is rare stuff, and on Sabathia has done it while pitching above average the whole way during the same timeframe. Pretty much the ideal “core” player.
Bumgarner (1)
One of the best young pitchers in baseball; truly remarkable age 21 season.
RP: (2011/2010/2009 WAR)
Brian Wilson – Closer (-)
1.0/3.3/1.6
Some injury history, with Tommy John after college and elbow/oblique problems in 2011. Considered an elite closer.
Sergio Romo
2.0/1.7/0.3
One of the best relievers in baseball. Some injury issues.
Santiago Casilla (counted b/c not a FA until 2014, Giants have 4 years of his service time clock).
1.4/1.6/-0.6
Pretty good 7th/8th inning guy. Wouldn’t call him elite.
Position Players
Buster Posey, C: (3A/4A)
Accumulated 5.1 fWAR/ 4.4bWAR over first 160 games. That leans towards 4A ranking. Huge question marks regarding his return from injury and future position.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B (4A)
4.7 bWAR in 2009, 0.6 when he was fat and dealing with personal stuff in 2010, 6.1 bWAR in 2011 in only 3/4 of a season. Some question marks, but as long as he stays in shape, he is in the 4A category. 3B is a wasteland these days. Only Longo is really in the same tier among young 3B (or maybe only Pablo is in Longo’s tier). I’m not forgetting Zimmerman; I’m saying he’s not as good as either Pablo or Longo. Also worth noting that Pablo was the best defensive player in all of MLB in 2011; he tied Brett Gardner and Austin Jackson for +22 DRS. He did so in far fewer games played. Oh, and he’s only 25.
A fanboy could argue Nate and Crawford are (1-); I wouldn’t unless they each put up a 2+ WAR season in 2012. They are likely to be contributors but not quite “core” members yet.
I would like to put Brandon Belt on here, but he doesn’t have enough of a track record. He has strong potential to be a (3). Few players hit like he did during their first pro season, showing that they were not truly challenged in the minors (Longo, Braun, Tulo are some of the only guys I can think of), and in my mind, he did great for a 23 year old with inconsistent playing time in the big leagues—-he hit better than league average and showed a lot of power. I hope he can establish himself in the “Core” soon.
Given the three headed monster at the top of Cain/Lincecum/MadBum...
…I have to say the Giants have a better core than the Rangers. There is absolutely no comparison between the two pitching-wise, both in terms of starters or relievers (unless Texas turns it’s starters back into relievers). #1’s are extremely hard to come by; by definition, only 30 guys MLB-wide can be considered #1’s. The Rangers have none. The Giants have three of the best, and they all have age and durability on their side.
(For this reason, and the limited ceilings and durability issues of the guys currently in Atlanta’s MLB rotation, I consider the Giants pitching core better than the Braves. Teheran, Minor, Delgado, Hanson, and Beachy may all become #1’s and #2’s with durability and success, but i’ll believe it when I see it. TINSTAAP!)
In regards to position players, I would honestly take 3 years of Pablo and 5 years of Buster over their four guys. Kinsler is an amazing player, and Andrus is extremely valuable, but Hamilton is so inconsistent and is a FA after this season and would be a huge risk to sign to a big extension. Nelson Cruz…well, he has power, but I think his value is limited by his defense, lack of durability, inconsistency, and that he is 31.
The Giants have a better core than the Rangers, IMO. Martin Perez and Jurickson Profar may change that, but for now, I can’t really compare them. I will say that the Rangers have been much better at acquiring free agents and role players though, which better takes advantage of their core. The Giants core is so good they should succeed despite major mistakes that were made in those regards.
The Braves and Rays have pretty exceptional cores too. I don’t have the time to break it down like I just did, but will do so. That said, three #1’s, and two guys who are among the best at positions of scarcity, is pretty enviable.
The Braves have their awesome bullpen, which is surely a bit better than the Giants’, core-wise. McCann is very good, a strong (3), but has had three 4-win seasons, no 5-win seasons, and between each 4-win season has dipped between 0.8 and 3.3WAR. Heyward could be a hall of famer—he has one 5 win season—but we need to see a rebound in 2012. Freeman was great in his age-21 season, but I don’t know what to expect from him over the rest of his team-controlled years. He should get better, but how much? Since Belt is only a year and a half older—but a whole order of magnitude better in the minor leagues—it’s hard to say who will be better long-term.
I think Tampa is deadly good too.
Price (1), Shields (1/2); Moore looks like a (1) to me, but can’t call it til he does it. Don’t know Hellickson’s true ceiling yet, but he’s looking like a solid (3) to me so far.
Longo is a (4A), and has the edge on Pablo due to consistency. Zobrist is a (3/4). Matt Joyce is a (2/3), Upton is a (2/3A). Desmond Jennings looks like a beast, and could be a (3A) when all is said and done. But Tampa has a problem: it can’t keep a core. Upton will be gone after 2012, if not sooner. Shields quite possibly as well.
I will revise my assertion:
The Giants have the best core in the NL.
The Rays have the best core in the AL.
Way too early prediction: they meet in the 2012 WS. Giants win.
What’s up with Ruben Amaro? The Phillies just signed Pat Mixch and Kevin Frandsen to minor league deals.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
How can you forget the Bocock??!! Wouldn’t that make the 3rd time Amaro traded for/signed him?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
It’s funny you mention that. The MLBTradeRumors headline on that yesterday was:
Minor Moves: Misch, Fransen, Lewis sign
and I thought it was going to be an all ex-Giant edition.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
That’s what set it off for me. Another ex-Giant MI is floating around, Rockies released Ryan Rohlinger.
Amaro also signed Scotty Pods to a minor league/spring training invite.
I guess you have to save money somewhere when you’re drunken sailor spending your way to one of the biggest boat anchor implosions in MLB history.
Another positive report on Panik
This one is also from projectProspect.com, but this time it’s their new contributor, Wes Yee, instead of Adam Foster that did the scouting. Link and money quote below:
http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/11/24/wes-scouts-the-afl-part-1
Panik, the Giants’ 2011 1st round pick, played second base in Arizona. He showed a compact swing and better speed than I expected. He projects as a gap-hitting second baseman who could be an above average hitter with average power. He’s solid defensively with soft, quick hands that enable him to turn the double play well despite just an average arm. He’s a college guy who has the maturity to move quickly.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I think they’d love to get Panik on the same track as Brown if he tears up SJ. Freddy Sanchez 6MM surprise extension may not happen quite so fast this year. They have to assign Brown to Richmond right? I can’t imagine they’ll let him skip at least half a year in the big bad Eastern.
They don’t “have to” assign Brown anywhere, but I don’t see them sending him anywhere but Richmond next year. I think that they really want to present him with a difficult hitting envirnonment and see how he adapts. He’s not going to get that in Fresno.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Bad phrasing on my part, I agree he needs to get challenged.
So just saw this little nugget: Draft is reduced to 40 rounds. Also there’s another year of protection for unsigned picks.
Panik is getting these little grudging praises – “better speed than I expected”. Thanks for the Bradley clip below. Do they let him keep 26 if he makes the show? To me the #s in the 20s should be for truly special players. (Hint hint Murph once Whiteside takes a hike…)
Another Panik vid clip from the AFL
Remember the recent chat blurb by some pundit to the effect that Panik looked overmatched by LHP Jed Bradley in the AFL? Well, here’s a clip of Panik hitting a hard double down the RF line against Bradley earlier this month:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LVPSQfwTaw&feature=player_embedded
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
heh
and to think that just six months ago we were all freaking out and crying ‘OVERDRAFT!’
It’s the McCoven Way.
by OrgoneDonor on Nov 29, 2011 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
Winter lines - Tuesday 11/29
It’s beginning to sound like a broken record, but both Hector Sanchez and Gregor Blanco continued to dominate with the bat down in Venezuela. Both guys went 2 for 4 with Blanco adding in a BB and a SB. Blanco still has gotten at least one hit in all 11 games (including 7 multi-hit games) since the Giants signed him. It seems as if he’s trying to open the eyes of the Giants’ player personnel directors so that he’ll be given a real shot to make the 25 man roster in the spring.
Hector Sanchez: 2-4, 2 1B, 1 RBI, Sac Fly
Gregor Blanco: 2-4, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 SB, Error (missed catch)
Tyler Graham: 2-5, 2 1B, 1 K
J. Christian: 0-4, 2 K
Johnny Monell: 1-1, 1 2B >>> pinch-hitter
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
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