BJ Upton - Trade Idea

I think the Rays would want more than a player with half a season of success, and an unproven prospect for a player of Upton’s stature (4+ years of consistency).

Still, I fail to see why Torres isn’t a viable alternative. If the problem is his low batting average, Upton hits more or less in the same range. Upton’s younger legs do make him a more successful base-stealer, but Torres plays a phenomenal CF.

Let’s keep in mind that we only need at most two years of serviceable play from our centerfielder. Gary Brown should be ready by then. Yet another logical reason to keep Andres patrolling AT&T.

Unfortunately, “logical” and “Giants’ management” haven’t really gone together in the past few years.

Not sure the Giants would want to include Hector Sanchez in any trades. While Posey is supposed to be returning full time at catcher, I’m thinking they’ll want a backup plan in case it doesn’t work out quite like that.

Something about that combination sounds really nice!!!

Yeah, I like the idea of targeting B.J. Upton. I know there’s some sentiment that he’s similar to (and not that much better than) Andres Torres and Coco Crisp.

But Upton is healthier than those two, and he has more breakout potential, given his age and scouting/draft pedigree.

There are some things to like about Upton – career low of 2.4 WAR in a full season, no injury issues, excellent walk rate, good power, solid defense and baserunning – but a couple big problems (huge 25% K rate, nothing more than slightly above-average overall or in any one category). I honestly can’t figure out how he produced 4 WAR with a .337 wOBA – most of the players around him are at >.350 or star defenders and/or baserunners at premium positions who hit about as well.

He’s also a rental, which means if Gary Brown isn’t ready in 2013 we have to do this dance all over again, but without a borderline starting OF and a solid catching prospect. Nor does he fit with Melky Cabrera, whose offense is suspect even in CF and certainly can’t be counted on as a corner outfielder. Draft picks are questionable at best with Upton on the bottom edge of Type B status and compensation being worked on for the next CBA anyway. The market is also an issue – are we really confident no one can or will beat Schierholtz and Sanchez? For a player with Upton’s upside (heh) it seems likely someone will do something dumb like a Garza-type trade that nets the Rays a couple solid prospects and a couple complementary pieces. Hell, I could see him packaged with James Shields (Reds? For Alonso and Yasmani Grandal and a lower-level SP?) for a big return.

Beltran, of course, comes with his own set of problems – age and injuries being chief among them, and those are significant enough that any four year deal is doomed from the start. Even three years is questionable (2+option is probably where I’d land), and he’s going to want more than the $40M I’d be willing to give him at the most.

So I choose none of the above – let Cabrera hang himself in CF for a month, then put Torres back there, then back to Cabrera if he doesn’t work, etc. We don’t have the money for a big sign or the prospects for a big trade, nor is there really a clear target out there (are we sure the Rays are trading Upton? They’ll obviously listen, but with contention planned for 2012 can’t be set on dealing him), so I’d rather grab a couple risky, cheap players and hope one of them works. A Belt/Cabrera(Torres)/Schierholtz outfield is preferable over the commitment either Beltran or Upton requires.