Fighting The Middle Market
by shankbone on Oct 14, 2011 10:20 PM PDT
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Let's face it, Brian Sabean sucks at signing middle market veterans for too much money and too many years. Lets try and rescue him and preserve this awesome rainy day fund too.
First up, the stated need for a CF. Covelli Crisp. As a one year stopgap for Gary Brown to sink or swim this sounds uncomfortable but for the 2/15-2/20 Sabean will spend zeroing in on his target it is insane. As many point out, Andres Torres in a bad year is within .002 of Crisp's OBP. But let's get skip Torres for a minute, hoping he is in the Gints plans as a 4th OF at least. Assuming they have to have an alternative plan in CF, look east.
The Mets. Angel Pagan is going to cost 5MM in arbitration. They don't want to pay Pagan, but they don't want to lose that value. Enter the Giants, and an extra right handed reliever who is in the same boat, for about half the money: Ramon Ramirez. A quick trade here gives the Mets a solid arm for their pen at a pretty nice price instead of making the hard call on Pagan, who is on the cusp of getting dfa'd. Pagan will attract interest from a bunch of clubs, its worth giving up something to get him with the arb control.
So now you have a leadoff batter, not sexy like Jose Reyes, but he has a career OBP of .331 a whole point above Crisp's of 330, he costs less in years and dollars and you just got value instead of signing or dfa'ing Ramirez. Pagan is a little less than 2 years younger than Crisp but I'll take that, because his nickname is Crazy Horse. Those quads are solid. Well, at least a lot more games than Crisp in the last 3 years.
Now a quick assumption: Brain Trust is serious that Nate Schierholtz is the RF, at least until he is injured. And Brandon Belt is either a) going to AAA to learn respect for curveballs b) going to 1B once Huff has his 2 months or c) back to RF if Schierholtz is injured or not quite what we hoped.
LF: 3 plans: 1. Hey Don Carlos, we got your leadoff hitter right here, you know him. Call his bluff at 2/30MM and we are on. I don't think even Sabean will go 3 years on those knees. An AL team could blow the Giants out of the water at any time. So you are asking him to play left and take 2 years, this part will be torn apart. And yes, this upsets the awesome rainy day fund but not by much more than the next 2 middle market plans:
Plan 2. Josh Willingham. Terrible defense. He will cost a draft pick. He hit bombs in Oakland, we need to have a 30 HR threat in LF. He has serious warts, but he is consistent and will solidify the lineup. 2/16 minimum, with Sabean rolling maybe even 2/20. This blows the budget out. Most likely it will turn out bad, but it is the best cheap dingerz play. As an aside, I hate giving Billy Beane a draft pick, and he didn't do anything special in Oakland.
LF Plan 3. Michael Cuddyer. He will cost even more than Willingham, at least 3 years 8MM per. 3/24 to 3/33, this is the guy that fits with Sabean fill in the roster strategy (Alfonso comes to mind). He will hit 20 bombs providing he is still healthy and his road splits aren't as bad as they look (255/327/742 away versus 289/360/848 at home), and provide position flexability, mainly due to the ability to play 2nd (badly) for Freddy Sanchez, and all the corners in the IF/OF. He will also cost the draft pick. This allows them to hedge RF/LF and even 1B. Most likely move.
LF Plan 4: Belt. Plan 5: Huff with Pill at first. Both Willingham and Cuddyer with creative budgeting can keep the payroll near 125MM and be the end of rosterbation. Please note: the way to fight the middle market is to follow plans 1, 4 or 5.
Brings it to SS. Just to piss off GiantPain, and bring his insights into the discussion, the #1 plan is the cheapest: Brandon Crawford. Bat him 8th, let him take his knocks. He might even hit 230.
2nd plan: Reality: Scutaro is getting his option picked up by the Red Sox. Furcal is resigned by the Cards, and if he isn't he's going to get years and dollars beyond the cheap. Rollins for 3 years will be matched by the Phils. 4/48? You have to walk away. Reyes is getting almost Carl Crawford money and years, and is almost the exact player, at a more premium position. Everybody's great backup hero Jamey Dodgerstink Carroll is just that, dodgerstink career backup. And 37 years old.
3rd plan: 3MM or less for somebody to caddy Crawford or better play Fontenot in a platoon: Alex Gonzalez, he of the sub 300 obp and salty glances, Jack Wilson to make Freddy Sanchez happy for his BFF, Clint Barmes hoping he can hit a little outside a hitters park (for more money). Maybe Nick Punto? Face it, shortstop is a horrible offensive position in the majors, just straight horrible. Getting a scrub RH to platoon with Fontenot and letting Crawford sink or swim in AAA is a good plan. Unless money comes huge for big hammy risks with Rollins (who has Freddy Sanchez intangibles) or Reyes (who is the opposite of the term gamer) the smart thing is to scrub it out for half of what Sabean threw out to Miggy Tejada last year.
So with this plan I embraced ONE middle market guy (who will most likely suck), avoided Coco Crisp (who will be injured and/or mediocre for more money/years), got a new whipping boy at short who will suck (for less money) and gave either Minny or the A's our draft pick. And made the defense worse. All while being realistic about how management will treat Brandon Belt.
Now lets break into that rainy day fund. Can Sabean possibly reach way back and pull off a trade? The problem of course is SS/CF are the most coveted positions in baseball and most teams are looking to buy, not sell.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I think the Giants will be going hard after Carlos Beltran and will have nothing left for anybody if they get that done. If they don’t, I think they attempt to sign Willingham and bring back Cody Ross for CF. All this Crisp talk is coming from external sources, not the Giants.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Sabes should definitely go hard after Beltran early, but it’s very, very unlikely that we’ll sign Beltran. With Boras as his agent he will almost certainly play the waiting game. I also believe that this being his last shot at a large multiyear contract (not to mention that he’s likely to be targeted by big spenders like Boston, the Yankees, the Cubs and Detroit) he won’t be signing for less than 4 years at less than $15M per year. Sabes can’t compete in that market unless the owners open up the spigots, so he shouldn’t wait around if Beltran doesn’t want to sign with the Gaints quickly .
I also don’t want Willingham or Cuddyer. Not only would they cost us the #20 pick, but they will almost certainly require a 3 year commitment worth over $10M per year. There are better in-house and/or FA options available for that combined price tag.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yanks need arms
Pitching is the need in New York, but maybe Swisher moves to LF and Beltran takes their RF.
A month ago, Beltran to Boston looked like a sure bet, but things have changed in that town.
The Cubs need a makeover. They are in a similar position as the Mets team that traded away Carlos Beltran to the Giants.
The best thing going for the Giants right now is that they have a legitimate chance of getting back to the playoffs and competing for the next few years, which just might appeal to Beltran enough to keep him in town. If the money’s right, he can stay. He’s said he wants other hitters.The question is, what does that mean? Posey will be back, and a consistent Panda will help that lineup.
The question is price. One year of Beltran for $19 million, or two years of Willingham for $19 million?
Both Boston and New York are in dire need of pitching help. I think New York’s main priority will be retaining Sabathia while Boston’s should be picking up CJ Wilson. They already had the top two offenses in baseball. I do think the Cubs might go all in for him, though.
I can’t imagine Epstein really believes Beltran would make Chicago a contender in the next 2 years.
Thing A
Why does everyone assume Boston can outbid Texas, especially given their already huge budget and the amount of very large contracts they have that are barely beginning? I think there’s good reason to believe that Texas is in as good or better financial position to sign top FA as anybody in the game. I frankly wonder if they’re not a really good darkhorse for the Pujols or Fielder sweepstakes as well.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Texas is better than a dark horse for Fielder/Pujols
After St. Louis and Chicago (Cubs), maybe Toronto if they think they can contend, the Rangers are probably one of the best bets to land one of those guys. But I think that’s only if they don’t get some more pitching – I seriously doubt they can stand to lose Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson in consecutive seasons without adding something. Maybe Neftali Feliz can become an ace starter, but they can’t count on that. They’re going to be heavily in the mix for Yu Darvish I’m betting. Fielder and Pujols will be explored if they don’t think they can reasonably add an ace.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Its hard to predict how crazy the market will get, but I can’t see Beltran getting over 15MM a year much less getting back to 18.5/19MM. While he had a pretty good (contract) year and got his knees right, he has to be looked at as a pretty big risk. I agree with Fla-Giant that an AL team will go 4/60 most likely. The Pagan move would be the bait to push him to re-sign, but Boras will wait it out and exhaust all possible moves. Still, you have to be in on Beltran, and Reyes/Rollins to see how it pans out. Most likely it will be too much money and too many years for any of them.
I’d much rather have Beltran for double the money of Willingham and half the years. Didn’t consider the chance Willingham would get 3 years, if so coupled with the loss of the draft pick it doesn’t look like a good move. The question of where Belt fits in next year is sort of important. From my reading of the press conference they are seriously thinking of starting him in AAA. They have been so inconsistent about this its impossible to know. Would Belt be that 25-30 HR threat next year?
Swisher has amazingly consistent numbers, that would be a great alternative to Beltran, and his defense is at least average, and he plays LF/RF unlike Willingham, and he switch hits. What would it take to get him from the Yanks for that arb control? They don’t seem to value bullpen arms.
A power bat in left field is more important than any leadoff issue. Ross in center seems like another great alternative to Crisp.
meant option on Swisher (10.25MM) not arb control. The obvious answer is J. Sanchez, but that seems like a lot to me.
the way the Yankees use bullpen arms in the rotation and vice versa, Jonathan Sanchez could fit in perfectly with them. Sanchez can put in 3-4 solid innings without giving up hits.
If he had that Yankees lineup backing him up so that when he implodes in the 5th he still has 6 runs of support… well, I could see him working out nicely for them. It makes more sense than with the Giants.
I would make that trade in a heartbeat.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 15, 2011 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
The Giants need Sanchez for the rotation, unless you want to write in a loss automatically every fifth day. The only way you trade Sanchez is if you sign an FA to be the fifth starter, and a Swisher for Sanchez trade would increase payroll, making a good FA signing unlikely. Swisher’s a nice player, but I’d rather sign Beltran, a nicer player, and give up nothing.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
by rxmeister on Oct 15, 2011 12:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Trading Sanchez for Swisher would cost at least 10 mil less than re-signing Beltran in for next season. I’d really like to have Beltran back and keep Sanchez in the 5th starter role, but if Beltran were to sign with the Yankees, a Sanchez for Swisher deal seems like a better option to me than giving up the draft pick to sign Willingham or Cuddyer to a multi-year deal. If you figure Barry Zito will continue to be pretty much what he’s been the whole time he’s been with the Giants he wouldn’t be a completely awful option as a 5th starter. A lineup with Sandoval, Posey, Swisher, Sanchez, Schierholtz, a decent year from Huff and/or Belt, and a decent hitting CF or SS added with some of the money not spent on Beltran should be good enough that you don’t have to “write in a loss automatically every fifth day.”
Thing A
not bad points, but the bottom line to me is Beltran and Sanchez > Swisher and Zito. Not only that, but expecting Zito to be what he’s been his entire Giants’ career is really pushing it. He was unusable last year and his number one has truly become a number two, and I’m sure you know what I mean by that. How can he reinvent himself this time if he’s literally throwing an 83mph fastball?
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Those are fair points regarding Zito. I hold out hope that he can be useful still. I do find it a little strange that everyone seems willing to write off Sanchez’s awful 2011 when they’re not willing to extend the same courtesy to Zito (who was a more than adequate 5th starter going into this year), but I suppose the age and velocity issues mean the two situations aren’t directly comparable.
I agree that Beltran & Sancehz > Swisher and Zito. I don’t think that’s the bottom line though because we might not (probably won’t) get Beltran and the money isn’t equal in those two scenarios. I’d rather have Swisher for a year at $10m + a non-Sanchez 5th starter at $5-6m than Beltran for, say, 48/3.
I also think it’s important to note that Beltran has a career wRC+ of 125, compared to Swisher’s 117. Beltran will be 35 next year, Swisher 31. Point being: let’s not let Beltran’s great 2011 get our expectations out of whack. Offensively, we should expect similar 2012’s from the two. And while Beltran was surely the better fielder and baserunner in his prime, I’m not sure how true that is anymore.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 15, 2011 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Zito is basically a shell of the league average guy he has been. That makes Sanchez more valuable to us, but I don’t know if he’s valuable enough for the Yankees to trade us Swisher. Interesting idea for sure, and if Beltran goes to the Yankees it seems tailor made. Good points about Beltran’s age and expectations. I do believe he is the best, most realistic guy the Giants have a chance of getting.
I don't like Josh Willingham
It’s a huge assumption that he will keep hitting as he has. Players with his profile (slow, un-athletic, hit for power, walk, don’t make a whole lot of contact) age quicker than the average player. Sooner rather than later he will go Adam Dunn on some team. AND he is oft injured.
Players with his profile (slow, un-athletic, hit for power, walk, don’t make a whole lot of contact) age quicker than the average player
Do you have anything to back that up? That sounds completely untrue.
Look at the last graph. “Old player skills” players age worse than speedy players. Unfortunately, that particular graph isn’t very good for comparing them to average, because “old player skills” players are substantially better than average as a group.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
he looks
horrible in LF.
Joe Nobody: The slugging speedster the Giants need, at an irrationally low price.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
"That one's on me."- Madison Bumgarner
by natteringnabob on Oct 16, 2011 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I vote for signing Kelly Johnson and putting him in LF which he played for a season in Atlanta.
by theimmortalbenard on Oct 15, 2011 3:08 PM PDT reply actions
Bring back Beltran, stick him in left.
Sign Cuddyer, Put Belt at 1b and Keep Nate in rf.
Huff could just be a pinch hitter.
MOON LANDING? BEAR GRYLLS!
by Anonymous1337 on Oct 15, 2011 4:17 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Pagan’s an interesting idea. Heard he might even be a non-tender candidate, although that would surprise me.
Did anyone watch him play much? Usually a two year UZR sample is more accurate than one, but going from +15 to -14 raises an eyebrow.
Michael Cuddyer to me is the nightmare scenario.
Scutaro’s option will get picked up, but he might be a trade target. Old and Dodgery or not, Carroll’s not a bad backup plan if they can’t figure anything else out, and could platoon with Fontenot.
Pagan had a rough start of the year but wasn’t bad in the second half. He’s a very similar player to Torres actually. If the brain trust must shun Torres, I’d much rather have Pagan in a contract year for 5MM than Crisp for whatever he gets. I watched about ten Mets games this year, he’s a pretty good fielder. He has sneaky power like 2010 Torres, and he steals bases. I think Ramirez is a luxury at this point, maybe even on the cusp of non-tender, why not turn some of the money that would be spent on him into a cheap CF?
Cuddyer’s road splits scare me. The problem with him and Willingham is they will go back to their respective teams for offers of 2/16. Especially Cuddyer, Sabean will have to offer that third year and more money. Giving up draft picks except for premium free agents is not a good move. Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and maybe Rollins are the only guys who should be worth casting off the 20th pick. But there has to be a bat in LF capable of 30 HRs next year, so they should all get consideration.
For the record, I disagree with the assumption that Belt’s getting benched or AAAed. I think if we can’t get Beltran or another big free agent, the off-season will mean picking up some form of shortstop, a lead-off hitting center fielder, and a backup catcher. Belt, Schierholtz, and notTorres start in the outfield opening day.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 15, 2011 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't imagine the Sox will keep Scutaro
Someone will want him badly enough to pay the salary and give up an interesting prospect, and there’s no reason to keep him around when your infield is Youkilis/Lowrie/Pedroia/Gonzalez with Jose Iglesias and Will Middlebrooks in AAA. Boston’s likely going to trade Youkilis soon to make room for Middlebrooks – no way Scutaro stays and Youkilis leaves even if they’re not the same defensively (CI vs. MI).
But that said, everyone knows Scutaro is probably available, and Boston’s dealings with Chicago regarding Theo Epstein make it clear they like prospects more than cash, so this looks like Beltran v. 2 where there’s a good player up for grabs on the trade market, the team that currently has him is better off trading him but for some reason is willing to keep him, and they aren’t that concerned about paying his salary. Scutaro’s older than Beltran and doesn’t have his offensive history, but he’s a guy who can play SS in a dead SS market, plus you get him for the whole year at a much lower yearly salary. All of that, and considering what we had to give up to get Beltran, plus how good Scutaro is in a more absolute sense than a relative sense, makes me scared of picking him up. There’s going to be a significant amount of interest and I doubt it’s going to make sense.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Delay
You’ve argued previously that Crawford may well play so acceptably that we don’t need a shortstop per se. His BABIP was low enough to make this a plausible hypothesis. I agree with it; and I hope that we don’t act precipitously, giving away too much for a perhaps unnecessary short-term fix—i.e., that we avoid our typical practice of searching the has-been bin for stop-gaps who risk turning out to be spavined hacks. My notion of strategy would be to let the shortstop question ride until it becomes clear that Crawford can’t do the job offensively. sometime in the spring or summer of 2012. In the off-season, go for a reliable lead-off hitter and Beltran, and except if we are in the market for Pujols or Reyes, keep our draft pick. Some other team should fork out the big bucks for the statuesque Prince Fielder.
Sox will keep Scutaro or sell him high
He’s been completely consistent and he’s cheap, even at 6MM. There is a lot of reason to keep him around actually, Iglesias can’t hit much and Lowrie can’t stay healthy. The Red Sox aren’t going to sweat that money at all. I do agree he will get trade interest though, and be expensive on that front.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t. It’s just $4.5 mil and he was probably their third best player in September. Given that Lowrie spends roughly 1.5 times as much on the DL as the active roster, I’d think $4.5 for Scutaro is a pretty good investment, even if it’s just so he can be a utility infielder.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Lowrie has injury issues
But they have Jose Iglesias and Will Middlebrooks in AAA, and Middlebrooks is supposedly ML-ready. Unless they lose three players or Lowrie AND Pedroia they don’t need another middle infielder. I think if they can trade Scutaro for a back-end starter (and they can) they ought to do it – Lackey shouldn’t be pitching at all and they have more concerns with the health and effectiveness of Buchholz and Matsuzaka than Lowrie or Youkilis. There are just too many questions on the pitching side for Boston to retain what is really a luxury in another potential starting SS, and this is a sell-high opportunity.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
But that’s a lot of untested young players to be counting on, which makes hanging on to one guy they know they can count on to fill in to be a wise use of $4.5. As for trading him, I’m fairly sure that the terms of the mutual options in his contract preclude that.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Lowrie has worked his way up to 88 games now, and didn’t have a good year at all. I just can’t see Boston letting go of Scutaro, he’s too cheap and dependable. Boston is a big market team, they won’t sweat that money at all. I thought Scutaro would be a good target last year too, but Lowrie’s non-performance and injuries and unproven rookies make this a slam dunk pickup of the option.
We should all take control of our collective urge to denial and face the future: we’re going to sign Yunesky Betancourt for 3 years and way too much money.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Please gawds - NNNOOOO!
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
You're only counting on them in the sense that they're backups
The starting INF would presumably still be Youkilis/Lowrie/Pedroia/Gonzalez. Scutaro, Iglesias, and Middlebrooks (which is only two young players and major injuries to two of the Sox starters would probably sink their season even with Scutaro) only enter the equation once someone gets hurt. But the Giants’ backup SS this year was Crawford. Who replaces Tulowitzki if he goes down? Hanley Ramirez missing time seriously hurt the Marlins. Teams typically don’t have players who can start and produce well sitting on the bench because those are the players you can trade to address weaknesses.
For that matter, Scutaro isn’t particularly reliable himself. He’s pretty old and the only two seasons he’s ever been above-average are two of his last three. I don’t think he’s any more of a sure bet than Iglesias or Middlebrooks. Or Lowrie, for that matter.
As far as the money goes, I doubt they are much concerned with $4.5M; they’ll absolutely pick up the option and will keep him if they don’t like the offers. But I find it hard to believe that retaining him is going to do more to help them than getting someone who isn’t John Lackey in the #5 spot.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
One quibble,
the only time he’s been an above-average HITTER have been two of the last three seasons. If an average WAR is 2.0, Scutaro has ranked above-average each of the last 4 seasons.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 17, 2011 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions
True
Of course, to be even more fair a lot of his value comes from positional adjustments – his UZR numbers are typically not good.
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I don’t think you can count on Youkilis and Lowrie being healthy at this point.
Anyway, it seems we agree that they’re likely to pick up the option. And, as I said above, since it’s a mutual option I would be absolutely stunned if the contract language doesn’t make it impossible to do what you suggest (pick it up and then trade him). If he’s going to play anywhere but Boston (at least until June) it’s almost certain to be because he became a FA with both parties declining options. If either picks the option up he’ll be a Red Sox.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!
Contract stipulates that he can’t be offered arb, so there’s no draft picks involved wherever he goes.
by Monkeyking42 on Oct 15, 2011 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Au contraire
Actually, Brian Sabean is excellent at signing middle market veterans for too much money and too many years.
"good" ...
I do not think that means what you think it means.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
Scott Hariston
We really need to sign him. He is a Giant killer and we will be plus 4 games just to keep him on the end of the bench. He can play an adequate CF also.
Go Giants
Called that one before I looked at the link
HEY GUYZ LET’S GET KERSHAW HE WAS GOOD AGAINST US THIS YEAR!
Seth Rosin can hit the side of a barn with a baseball. From space.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I think Kershaw would work out pretty well, but I remember the Giants signing many Giants killers in the past, and it not going too well for them. The most prominent one to me was when they signed Mark Portugal. When you take a pitcher who’s only good against one team and put him on that team, you can’t expect much success!
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
Wasn’t it Barry himself who advocated getting Portugal, just for that very reason?
"He has maybe one of the best arms I've ever seen; he could be playing by the concession stand and he's not out of position." - Andy Skeels, talking about 3B Chris Dominguez.
Pagan will be non-tendered
Adoptive father of 18th round draft pick and future ace, BRANDON ALLEN
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Oct 16, 2011 2:56 PM PDT reply actions
I can see Pagan being non tendered and Sabean signing him. I wonder if the Giants might even have extra interest, thinking that bringing in one of Beltran’s NY teammates for the past few years might be an incentive to him coming back. The obvious problem here is that players like Pagan will prefer multi year deals in more hitting friendly environments, and the Giants would probably be more interested in a one year deal with Gary Brown on the horizon.
Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.
The point in the post (rambling on for sure) was he IS a definite non-tender candidate, let’s go get him before the Mets have to make that decision. Then the Giants control his arbitration, it’s a one year deal in his walk year (win-win). You give up something the Mets would want (argument there on Ramirez) and reduce your costs of acquisition while retaining some value for both sides instead of non-tendering and walking away. If Pagan is non-tendered, the Giants will be one of a few teams, they might not win the bidding, or even want to win if it goes high. We have redundancy in the pen, lets shed a RH arm and that salary.
You get a younger guy than Coco Crisp and you avoid a 2 year overbid. Then you have something right now you can go back to Boras/Beltran with and say “here’s your damn leadoff hitter, sign the damn papers”
One thing about Boras/Beltran that is interesting – instead of the usual Boras bluster about 5 year deals they are being cagey, and have even said nice things about the Giants. They don’t want to overplay their hand and get stuck with a 1 year prove it deal. (And how sweet would a one year prove it deal with Beltran be?)
fun Pagan statistics
BB%
2010: 7.0%
2011: 8.3%
K%
2010: 15.3%
2011: 11.7%
BABIP
2010: .331
2011: .285
LD% (percentage of his balls in play that were line drives)
2010: 19.5%
2011: 24.0%
I don't think Sabean looks at these things.
Ron Paul 2012
by GovernorStephCurry on Oct 16, 2011 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions
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