Shortstop Rosterbation

by hawaiiconnect on Oct 12, 2011 1:56 PM PDT

I understand Brian Wilson means a hell of a lot to the team, not only on the field, but off. He is one of my favorite players and a great personality.

Unfortunately, we suck at SS. The market sucks at SS. We shouldn't be throwing money at Rollins or Reyes. I know it's rather impossible to pry a good young SS from another team, but do you think Brian Wilson and a kick in player (J Sanchez?) be enough for Elvis Andrus? And if we could somehow get Yorvit Torrealba, I miss him, and he would be an excellent back up. The Rangers could put Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation to fill the void of CJ Wilson (if he leaves). Jonathan Sanchez may interest the Rangers as they have his twin Derek Holland. They can help each other succeed! And Adams, Wilson would be pretty nasty. Again, I hate myself for even thinking of getting rid of Willie, but Romo is a beast and this would allow us to keep Lopez and Affeldt.

Just thinking aloud. Is it enough? Would it take more? Am I STUPID? AM I SABEAN?

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Doubt the Rangers would get rid of Andrus for less than something like Cain and Brown.

But, for Wilson and Sanchez, they could give up Michael Young.

COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!

Fathaigh go mbuaimid!

Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .

Job 1:14-15

by bigboneded on Oct 12, 2011 2:49 PM PDT reply actions

Oh, and No, Yes, Yes, No.

COMIN' ATCHA, FROM ANCHORAGE, ALASKA!

Fathaigh go mbuaimid!

Proud adoptive Father of Joe Panik. 2011 NWL MVP .

Job 1:14-15

by bigboneded on Oct 12, 2011 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Dunno about that

I thought I’d do a little check-in on the current status of Andrus’ accomplishments. Neither his batting nor fielding stats jumped out as me as particularly awesome. Then I found this Fangraphs chart for shortstops in 2011. They do consider him the 6th most valuable SS in baseball this year, but the biggest chunk of that is for his baserunning.

So while I agree the Rangers don’t have that much incentive to trade him, and while I do usually find fan trades horribly optimistic from the home team’s POV, Cain and Brown would seem to be an insane valuation in the Rangers’ favor.

"Your curses do not compare to those of Houston fans or Detroit fans, and especially not to those of fans from the northside of Chicago. You are not Hamlet. You are Valerie Bertinelli. Your victim act is schlocky, and totally unconvincing. You fancy yourself tormented. You are merely insecure."
-- Scott Burton to Red Sox fans, 6/12/02
http://espn.go.com/magazine/burton_20020612.html

by achiappanza on Oct 14, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

They would have to take Zito too or send some cash. We could probably replace Cain’s value in FA market, and Andrus is now what Brown might be later, at a harder position to fill.

I would still cry to see Cain traded like that. He has only 1 year left, I am pretty sure he wants to resign (and we should). Unless somehow talks to resign fall through and Giants can extend Lincecum instead, I would be more agreeable to trade Cain (cries).

by Myemail21479 on Oct 14, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Your response seems to assume

that Andrus wont get any better during the 4 more years of team control. Also Matt Cain will be a FA after the 2012 season, so what you are saying is 1 year of Matt Cain and Gary Brown > 4 years of Elvis Andrus by a large margin. I disagree with that.

Andrus has been worth 10.1 WAR in 1880 PA. He’s aaveraging 3.33 WAR and he just put up a 4.5. I think he has the potential to have one or two .290/.365/.400 type seasons at SS over the next 4 seasons. I also believe that he could improve his UZR, which hasn’t been all that bad, 12.1, 0.1, 7.0. My guess is that he is more of a 8-10 UZR than a 4-5. I could see him providing 15-18 WAR over the next 4 seasons. Cain get-s you 5-6 next year, then you are asking Gary Brown to give you 9-12 WAR before he is gone. Nate Schierholtz has poduced 4.5 WAR in 3 seasons. Torres has produced 10.2 in 3 seasons, and 6.8 of that happened in 2010. If you think that Brown can hit as well as Torres did in 2010, then you’re probably right, but that’s the big question here. And how much value or lack of value you attribute to the variability in Brown’s future performance is teh difference in the deal because just looking at Matt Cain and Elvis Andrus at their current terms, that’s an easy nod for Andrus. But, if Brown can somehow breakthrough the management barrier to become a regular quickly like Posey and Sandoval did, and if he can have a couple of Torres 2010 kind of seasons, then Cain and Brown would be worth more. But if he struggles to get playing time and burns control years as a back up, and never has those break out years, I’d clearly rather have Andrus.

RIP 2011 Giants Post Season

by Cody_ransom on Oct 14, 2011 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions

WAR-like

I will say that without looking I assumed that Cain’s WAR advantage over Andrus was more significant than it actually was in 2011.

I do think there needs to be some accounting for value after free agency. That is, if the Giants keep Cain through his current contract, the likelihood of Cain choosing to stay is much higher than the likelihood of his coming back if he’s traded away. So strictly speaking, I think Cain’s valuation should be more than just 1 year of value, though I don’t know what I would propose as a fair way to score it.

by achiappanza on Oct 16, 2011 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions

If you’re using WAR from Fangraphs, keep in mind that its basis is FIP, which assumes that balls in play are random noise, and thus seriously undervalues Matt Cain’s particular brand of awesomeness.

by Monkeyking42 on Oct 17, 2011 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Right on!

More on the MATT CAIN side of the ledger!

by achiappanza on Oct 17, 2011 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I did use fWAR.

But it doesn’t appear to discredit Cain. He’s actually much better by fWAR than bWAR in 2011.

bWAR 2009-2011: 5.1, 4.1, 3.9
fWAR 2009-2011: 3.2, 3.7, 5.2

RIP 2011 Giants Post Season

by Cody_ransom on Oct 19, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, if fWAR assumes pitchers are giving up babip’s of .300 and you accept that Cain’s career babip of .265 is due to some repeatable skill and not a historic run of good luck, then it does undervalue him, regardless of the comparison to bWAR. The one doesn’t impact the other.

It is interesting that his bWAR ranks so low this year (although still 9th among NL pitchers). I don’t quite understand how they calculate that. It’s runs allowed adjusted for fielding and “leverage” but I don’t know exactly how that’s factored in. I’d imagine the depressed run environment of the last two years means Cain stands out less, thus the dropping bWAR each year despite his as-good-or-better performance. I’ve also heard on these boards that BR’s baseline replacement level if higher than at Fangraphs, so WARs tend to be lower there in general. Can anyone confirm/deny that?

by Monkeyking42 on Oct 20, 2011 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions

this is left sided brain rosterbation

Although any idea should be thrown out there, I am not
at one with your plan. Perhaps you will find an ear
in Sabean.

by bradleybear on Oct 12, 2011 3:46 PM PDT reply actions

That would be hilarious.

Carter Jurica!
"Has anyone really been for even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?"

by GrahamCrakalaka on Oct 12, 2011 8:17 PM PDT reply actions

The Rangers are one game away from going to the World Series for the second year in a row. I’m sure they’ll be perfectly willing to break up their ball club by trading one of their top young players. Texas is also loaded financially and supposedly getting ready to make an offer for CC Sabathia with all the money they saved from Cliff Lee. I’m sure they have little interest in Jonathan Sanchez. As for Torrealba, the Giants didn’t want him last year when Posey was hurt, why would they want his salary if Posey is healthy?

Buster Posey: still better than Eli and Stewart, even with a broken ankle.

by rxmeister on Oct 14, 2011 7:26 AM PDT reply actions

Why do people insist that Brain Wilson has substantial trade value?

Yes he’s been really good for just over two years. But he’s not cheap at all, and he got shelved with a sore elbow the last 6 weeks of the season. Who would give a useful shortstop for an injured closer who is going to make 8.6 in 2012 and probably 10 million in arb in 2013? Nobody. Shortstops who can hit at all are very rare commodities these days.

RIP 2011 Giants Post Season

by Cody_ransom on Oct 14, 2011 9:29 AM PDT reply actions

This

Wilson adds very little vs what the FA market is for that kind of money. Andrus is what 2 years in, in control for 4 more years… he is very valuable.

by Myemail21479 on Oct 14, 2011 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions

What about Darwin Barney? He can’t hit very much but by all accounts he would make a great ML SS. The Cubs have a bunch of MIF prospects that can replace him at 2b.

by Hobbes2d on Oct 16, 2011 12:48 AM PDT reply actions