Community Prospect List #25 Runoff

by marcello on Jan 31, 2011 9:36 AM PST

Ok, we've got another runoff. Sorry I didn't get this up yesterday, but I'm pretty sure my brain was trying to escape my skull through expansion, so I wasn't really up to it.

Brock Bond

Jake Dunning

I don't think we'll just award #26 to the loser, since Dominguez was so close behind these two (39/38/32), but if you feel strongly about this, let me know.

Poll will close Wednesday at noon, etc.

Poll

RUNOFF? Runoff.

Brock Bond

85 votes

Jake Dunning

88 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

I'm fine with doing a full vote on #26

There’s no guarantee that the Bond voters would vote for Dunning. I won’t be.

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by BruteSentiment on Jan 31, 2011 9:56 AM PST reply actions

Sure, let’s do the full vote.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby

by Lyle on Jan 31, 2011 11:47 AM PST reply actions

Full vote would be fine

26-30 will likely be close.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Jan 31, 2011 1:23 PM PST reply actions

WHERE IS JCP?

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by Giant among Angels on Jan 31, 2011 1:28 PM PST reply actions

Bond

My Adopted Giant
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by GiantPain on Jan 31, 2011 3:05 PM PST reply actions

That was a long way to go, but I will give you an A- for use of the specimen cup.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Jan 31, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions

It was only a long way to go for me because I got lost in Josh Hartnett’s eyes.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jan 31, 2011 4:33 PM PST up reply actions

I was trying to figure out what the hell o bee urine was.

Then it hit me.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 31, 2011 7:09 PM PST up reply actions

The urine hit you?

by Natto on Feb 1, 2011 9:57 AM PST up reply actions

Not sure why

But I really hate Bond.

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Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Jan 31, 2011 9:10 PM PST reply actions

You're probably not the only 1

No GM in all of baseball was willimg to cough up $50K just to see if he could stick on their 25man roster all season.

"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner

by Fla-Giant on Jan 31, 2011 9:28 PM PST up reply actions

I don’t hate him. I think we’re getting to the part of the list where he actually makes sense. He’s a flawed player, but we’re talking about the 25th best prospect in the system right now. A little perspective helps.

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by xanthan on Feb 1, 2011 5:41 AM PST up reply actions

Too true.

I guess I’m just subject to my high-upside bias at lower levels. I’m much more likely to rate someone like Marvin Barios over Brett Pill despite the fact that Pill is much closer to the bigs and much more likely to actually help out the ML team.

I just don’t think the minor league system is about producing replacement-level players — it’s about providing league average or better players, and I don’t see any remotely likely scenario in which Pill or Bond can be league-average.

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by tedfordfan on Feb 1, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions

Fair enough, but let’s keep in mind that Bond is much better than Pill.

by Evan on Feb 1, 2011 9:52 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah, I’m not sure that there’s any likelihood of Pill ever helping out the ML team!

But really, tedford’s articulating the old “devil you DON’T know” theory. This year’s power armed pitcher who hasn’t thrown any or many professional innings yet gets rated higher over last year’s power armed pitcher who we’ve already seen take some lumps.

Perhaps the appropriate counterpoint to Barrios isn’t Pill, but someone like Armando Paniagua.

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MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Feb 1, 2011 10:05 AM PST up reply actions

More like Edward Concepcion

But the point stands.

I don’t think it’s so much the “devil you don’t know” as much as the potential/high ceiling over advanced/low-ceiling player. (Although, you’re probably also correct with the “devil you don’t know” comment — I’m probably swayed by that as well).

While acknowledging that there’s some value in producing Travis Ishikawas and Nate Schierholtzes, the purpose of the minor league system is to produce stars and above-average, or at least league-average players for the major league team. Bonus points for generating those players as cost-controlled assets. Leave aside guys like Posey and Lincecum, who were really high draft picks — I’m talking about the Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brian Wilson type of players. Those are the guys coming up through the system that make a difference to a good team.

Even if a guy like Bond ever makes it to the bigs, it will almost certainly be as a bench guy and he’ll have a lot of trouble sustaining his career beyond the few years he makes very little money. Those guys are not useless or entirely lacking in value, but just not the kind of guy who makes any sort of difference in the short or long-term.

So even though Bond is close to the bigs and has a very high probability of making it to the show, I value a very young, power arm more, because (even though they have the same chances of coming up big as a lottery ticket) there’s a chance that arm could develop into someone that makes a difference to a good team. Proximity to the bigs isn’t an immaterial consideration, just not as important, IMO.

In that regard, I’m almost exactly the opposite of BruteSentiment, I think, as well as some others here.

I will say that stats are increasingly important as they are achieved at higher the levels. Bond’s stats are OK (look at his MLEs from Fresno last year — .241/.331/.309 — let’s not get fooled by OMG OBP!!!), so he deserves credit for that. And I agree with Xanthan that putting him in the 20’s isn’t indefensible by any means. But I prefer to put him lower and have my lottery tickets higher up.

Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.

by tedfordfan on Feb 1, 2011 1:28 PM PST up reply actions

No, you and I are very much on the same page in those terms. And I absolutely agree that producing impact talent is the key to a farm system (drafting one Tim Lincecum makes for an A draft no matter what else you do). We won a World Series because the system produced Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson, and Posey and the rest is pretty much just flotsam.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Feb 1, 2011 1:57 PM PST up reply actions

flotsam that happened to flot all the way to the top

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by foothillsfan on Feb 1, 2011 2:31 PM PST up reply actions

I agree that having a Lincecum or a Posey in your draft automatically makes it successful, and I also tend to rate players higher on potential than lower ceiling/already taken his lumps. I do think, however, that this argument might be underrating a little bit the importance of very cheap role/average players, especially their first what, 4 or 5 years with the team. When you can pay a guy 300k a year and get even a few WAR out of him, surrounded by higher talented players, you’re getting a good deal of value out of your player development system as well as strengthening your team and hopefully allotting funds to other areas. This of course also depends on the financial situation of the team too. Although even with the Yankees there is consideration of overspending, like Soriano’s deal to set up Rivera.

by Mrbasepaul on Feb 1, 2011 2:47 PM PST up reply actions

Hmm… I seem to have cut off an extra two sentences of my post while changing “jetsam” to “flotsam”, which is an object lesson in not letting great be the enemy of good if I’ve ever heard one. I did mean to tone that sentiment down, and add Romo and Panda.

However, I do stand by believing in impact talent. While what you say is true, “a few WAR” is actually pretty hard to come by. Nate hasn’t produced this yet in his entire career. Nor has Travis. In fact, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, Burriss, and Downs put together last year didn’t manage this. But of course Torres, who they were also paying a minimum amount, gave them 6, which goes to show there’s more than one way to skin a cat I suppose.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Feb 1, 2011 4:23 PM PST up reply actions

Hey leave my former son out of this. He actually produced a 0.3 WAR last year

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Feb 1, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions

Speaking of which

I was just looking over Edwin Escobar’s year. Considering his ARL he had an impressive year

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by Gobroks on Feb 1, 2011 7:38 PM PST up reply actions

I think the Rangers signed him for around $250K, which is 4th round slot money, right? We got him for Ben Snyder, whom the Rangers took in the Rule 5 draft — am I remembering this correctly? In any case, he’s got a good arm, is a lefty, is very young and projectable. I like him.

Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.

by tedfordfan on Feb 2, 2011 8:37 AM PST up reply actions