LOL! Nice work.

OM NOM NOM
/belch

72% is probably the average for everyone, but your chances of going over 72% increase dramatically if your K/9% is high.

Tim Lincecum would be a prime example of this. His career LOB% is 75.3% and has only been below 72% once during his rookie campaign.

Of the top 10 starting pitchers last season that qualified in K/9%, 9 out of the 10 were well above the 72% strand rate.

Tim Lincecum 76.5%
Jon Lester 74.5%
Yovani Gallardo 68.9%
Jonathan Sanchez 79.5%
Francisco Liriano 73.1%
Jared Weaver 75.7%
Clayton Kershaw 76.2%
Mat Latos 77.4%
Josh Johnson 79.2%
Cole Hamels 82.7%

Stranding runners is a skill if you have a high K/9%. Sanchez’s strand rate really isn’t that much out of line considering that he ranked 4th on this list for K/9%. Obviously him, Hamels, and Johnson can expect a little bit of regression, but not down to 72%. Gallardo appears to be a guy that was actually unlucky on this list. He should be a much better pitcher this season. Hamels appears to be a guy that was very lucky at 82.7%, but not when you look at his exceptional 76.6% LOB% over his career. He has never been below 72% in his career.

72% is a nice baseline for everyone, but I think you would have to look at it as a spectrum and combine it with K/9%.

The Luck Dragon is going to go after Clay Buchholz though. He posted a 79.0% strand rate and a fairly pedestrian K/9% of 6.22 and a BABIP of .265 and a HR/FB% of 5.6%. Nom, nom, nom.

Wow