This is in reply to a comment by Goofus in the (highly recommended) Diary "2010 Jonathon Sanchez: BABIP fluke or a real step forward? Pitch F/X reveals some insight." For those who don't feel like clicking the link, Goofus wrote:
My impression (and I don’t think I’m alone) from watching him last season was that when things would go wrong, he was much more adept at putting out the fire rather than throwing gas on it. In other words, better at avoiding disastrous innings and better at staying in the game when things started looking bad.
Is there any evidence that either confirms of refutes this impression?
He isn't alone; I feel the same way, as do many others. However, I didn't have any evidence to prove this. I decided that the best way to go about finding evidence would be to look at his ERA in Jonathan Sanchez's starts after he first surrendered a run. For example, in this game, I would look at his ERA in the 4.2 innings after the Rodrigo Lopez sacrifice fly and before Sanchez's departure from the game. Come to think of it, it would have been much easier to look at his performance in high-leverage situations, but I didn't think of doing that.
Long chart follows; errors are possible.
|
Year |
Date |
IP |
ER |
ERA |
|
2006 |
6-Sep |
1 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2006 |
12-Sep |
4 2/3 |
3 |
5.79 |
|
2006 |
22-Sep |
2 |
6 |
27.00 |
|
2006 |
27-Sep |
5 2/3 |
2 |
3.18 |
|
Total 2006 |
7.43 |
|||
|
2007 |
1-Sep |
1 1/3 |
2 |
13.50 |
|
2007 |
7-Sep |
6 |
2 |
3.00 |
|
2007 |
12-Sep |
3 |
2 |
6.00 |
|
2007 |
18-Sep |
1/3 |
3 |
81.00 |
|
Total 2007 |
7.59 |
|||
|
2008 |
4-Apr |
3 2/3 |
6 |
14.73 |
|
2008 |
14-Apr |
4 1/3 |
1 |
2.08 |
|
2008 |
25-Apr |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
30-Apr |
1 |
1 |
9.00 |
|
2008 |
6-May |
2 |
6 |
27.00 |
|
2008 |
11-May |
2/3 |
2 |
27.00 |
|
2008 |
16-May |
1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
21-May |
5 2/3 |
1 |
1.59 |
|
2008 |
28-May |
1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
2-Jun |
3 1/3 |
1 |
2.70 |
|
2008 |
12-Jun |
3 2/3 |
5 |
12.27 |
|
2008 |
17-Jun |
1 1/3 |
2 |
13.50 |
|
2008 |
24-Jun |
7 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
29-Jun |
6 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
4-Jul |
3 |
2 |
6.00 |
|
2008 |
9-Jul |
1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
19-Jul |
3 2/3 |
3 |
7.36 |
|
2008 |
25-Jul |
1 1/3 |
5 |
33.75 |
|
2008 |
30-Jul |
3 2/3 |
3 |
7.36 |
|
2008 |
5-Aug |
1/3 |
2 |
54.00 |
|
2008 |
11-Aug |
1 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
1-Sep |
5 1/3 |
2 |
3.38 |
|
2008 |
7-Sep |
2/3 |
1 |
13.50 |
|
2008 |
12-Sep |
1 1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2008 |
17-Sep |
3 |
5 |
15.00 |
|
2008 |
24-Sep |
2 2/3 |
5 |
16.88 |
|
Total 2008 |
7.19 |
|||
|
2009 |
4-Apr |
2 2/3 |
4 |
13.50 |
|
2009 |
28-Apr |
3 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
4-May |
3 1/3 |
3 |
8.10 |
|
2009 |
9-May |
4 1/3 |
4 |
8.31 |
|
2009 |
14-May |
5 |
3 |
5.40 |
|
2009 |
20-May |
4 1/3 |
1 |
2.08 |
|
2009 |
25-May |
0 |
1 |
inf |
|
2009 |
31-May |
2 |
2 |
9.00 |
|
2009 |
6-Jun |
2 1/3 |
4 |
15.43 |
|
2009 |
11-Jun |
3 1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
16-Jun |
3 |
5 |
15.00 |
|
2009 |
22-Jun |
2 1/3 |
3 |
11.57 |
|
2009 |
20-Jul |
4 2/3 |
2 |
3.86 |
|
2009 |
25-Jul |
1 2/3 |
2 |
10.80 |
|
2009 |
30-Jul |
5 |
1 |
1.80 |
|
2009 |
10-Aug |
1 2/3 |
1 |
5.40 |
|
2009 |
16-Aug |
2 1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
21-Aug |
4 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
26-Aug |
7 |
1 |
1.29 |
|
2009 |
1-Sep |
1 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
6-Sep |
1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2009 |
12-Sep |
2 1/3 |
4 |
15.43 |
|
2009 |
18-Sep |
3 2/3 |
3 |
7.36 |
|
2009 |
23-Sep |
0 |
1 |
inf |
|
2009 |
29-Sep |
2 |
2 |
9.00 |
|
2009 |
4-Oct |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
Total 2009 |
5.77 |
|||
|
2010 |
9-Apr |
2 1/3 |
2 |
7.71 |
|
2010 |
20-Apr |
3 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
26-Apr |
1 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
2-May |
1 |
3 |
27.00 |
|
2010 |
7-May |
6 1/3 |
3 |
4.26 |
|
2010 |
13-May |
3 1/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
18-May |
2 |
3 |
13.50 |
|
2010 |
23-May |
2/3 |
1 |
13.50 |
|
2010 |
29-May |
2 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
4-Jun |
4 2/3 |
3 |
5.79 |
|
2010 |
9-Jun |
4 1/3 |
2 |
4.15 |
|
2010 |
14-Jun |
6 1/3 |
1 |
1.42 |
|
2010 |
20-Jun |
1 2/3 |
1 |
5.40 |
|
2010 |
25-Jun |
5 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
30-Jun |
2 1/3 |
3 |
11.57 |
|
2010 |
5-Jul |
4 1/3 |
1 |
2.08 |
|
2010 |
10-Jul |
3 2/3 |
4 |
9.82 |
|
2010 |
18-Jul |
4 1/3 |
1 |
2.08 |
|
2010 |
23-Jul |
4 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
28-Jul |
3 2/3 |
4 |
9.82 |
|
2010 |
8-Aug |
2 2/3 |
2 |
6.75 |
|
2010 |
13-Aug |
4 1/3 |
2 |
4.15 |
|
2010 |
24-Aug |
1 2/3 |
4 |
21.60 |
|
2010 |
16-Sep |
7 |
1 |
1.29 |
|
2010 |
22-Sep |
2 2/3 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
2010 |
28-Sep |
4 2/3 |
1 |
1.93 |
|
Total 2010 |
4.15 |
|||
|
Career |
5.73 |
|||
|
Before No-Hitter |
7.32 |
|||
|
After No-Hitter |
4.15 |
|||
The results are clear. There has been an unmistakable decline every year that Sanchez has been a starter. As the last two columns indicate, a shift took place in July of 2009. Before then, he was a terrible pitcher after surrendering a run; since then, he has been an average major league pitcher after that point in the game, aided by his tremendous strand rate.
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