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Around SBN: Ryder Hesjedal Wins Giro d'Italia

Is Now The Time To Trade Jonathan Sanchez?


Sorry about making a rosterbation fanpost, but I've been thinking about this for a long time and wanted to know what you guys think.

Star-divide

This fanpost was actually inspired by a blurb in a recent MLB.com article:

The Rangers were the other team in it to the end. They thought they could get Chirinos from the Cubs, then package him with left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, reliever Frank Francisco and outfielder Engel Beltre, plus pay some of Francisco's contract

This is a report by Peter Gammons, who has a good reputation among sports writers about knowing who is offered for who (whom?), analyzing the trade for Matt Garza. This got me to thinking about two things: 1): How similar are Sanchez and Garza and 2): If I were in Brian Sabean's position would I take the package that Gammons mentioned in that article (substituting Chirinos for a Rangers prospect-probably around #15 in their system).

Sanchez Garza
2010
ERA 3.07 3.91
FIP 4 4.42
xFIP 4.11 4.51
K/9 9.54 6.6
BB/9 4.47 2.77
HR/9 0.98 1.23
GB% 41.5 35.8
LOB% 79.5 75.5
IP 193.1 204.2
BABIP 0.262 0.294
HR/FB 9.8 10
FG WAR 2.1 1.8
BB Ref WAR 3.4 2
CAREER
ERA 4.26 3.97
FIP 4.08 4.26
xFIP 4.23 4.45
K/9 9.41 7.1
BB/9 4.6 3.18
HR/9 0.93 1.07
GB% 40.5 39.7
LOB% 72.2 73.7
HR/FB 9.5 9.4
BABIP 0.293 0.293

So the stats above, show that Sanchez has a slightly better career FIP and xFIP, but his ERA is bogged down by the struggles early in his career, while Garza outperformed the metrics his whole career. Over their career, Sanchez has shown a better tendency to get groundballs, while Garza strands runners a bit better. Sanchez also K's more and BB's more.

The 2010 stats tell a different tale though. They show that 1): Jonathan Sanchez got lucky-his BABIP was down 31 points from his career, his Strand rate was 7% better than his career averages and his ERA was a full run better than his xFIP. But it also shows that 2): Sanchez, may be a better fit for Texas than for Garza would've been-In a flyball hitters ballpark Sanchez showed a better ability to get groundballs and strikeouts than Garza did, and he had a lower HR/9. I think that Sanchez's stronger peripherals and better ability to fit in Texas, would help offset the fact that Garza is under team control for 1 more year than Sanchez.

Now to answer question 2-Would I trade Sanchez for Derek Holland, Engel Beltre, Frank Francisco, and another prospect (I have Joe Weiland as their #16 prospect so let's go with him). I would make that trade-for a few reasons.

1-Derek Holland is still in the pre-arb stages. It's been said that pre-arb prospects are the most valuable commodities in baseball, and it's easy to agree with that statement after seeing pre-arb players help lead the Giants to winning the world series.Holland would be the prize of this deal (despite his impression of Rick Ankiel, pitcher, in the World Series where he faced 3 batters and threw 1 strike). He strikes out guys, gets groundballs at a decent rate, strikes out a fair amount of guys, walks a few too many guys. I would expect an ERA in the low 4's to start, with him improving-if anything he could be a cheaper version of Sanchez.

 2- Frank Francisco has value: While Frank Francisco may be more known for his chair throwing incident in Oakland, he is actually a decent reliever-he has a career K/9 over 10 and has consistently performed under his peripherals. But more importantly he has value after this year. Last year he was rated as a Type A Free Agent and he had the good sense to accept arbitration, however I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop to Type B status and possibly net a supplemental draft pick. He made 3.265 Million dollars this year, so his arb award this year would be fairly high for a reliever-probably around the 4.75 Million dollar mark.

 3-Helps rebuild our farm system: Our farm system took a hit when it graduated Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, and now it doesn't look so pretty. Beltre and Weiland would help that. Beltre would probably slot between 3 and 5 on this list as he is a better version of Francisco Peguero (toolsy OF, has trouble drawing BB's). Weiland, on the other hand, would likely slot in the back of the top 10. He is a 21 year old (in 9 days) who split last year between A and A+ ball. What's different about him compared to most HS draftees is that Weiland has posted good BB rates throughout his minor league career-his highest BB rate at any spot was 2.6/9.

Stats Courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

Contract Info Courtesy of Cot's

So, would you do this deal?

PS-A word of advice-click on Posey's name in the final Paragraph. You'll like what you see.

Poll
Would you trade Jonathan Sanchez for Derek Holland, Engel Beltre, Frank Francisco, and Joe Wieland?
Yes
64 votes
No
178 votes

242 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

Comment 143 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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No

No.

No.

Stop it. Late night rosterbation is the worst kind. Green hair will grow out of your palms. Trading Sanchez? Trading starting pitching? In the NL West? The Giants? 500 years ago this would have been grounds for burning at the stake for blasphemy.

No. Stop it. I know you’re lonely, but this ain’t gonna help.

"It's too LATE to stop now!" - John Lee Hooker

by Rolfyboy on Jan 12, 2011 1:56 AM PST reply actions  

I wouldn’t trade Sanchez right now but there should be no such thing as untouchable.

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jan 12, 2011 3:25 AM PST up reply actions  

There is such a thing as foolish

to be polite.

"It's too LATE to stop now!" - John Lee Hooker

by Rolfyboy on Jan 12, 2011 4:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Is it really foolish if you are overwhelmed with good players? He isn’t Lincecum or Cain right now.

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jan 12, 2011 6:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, for instance when you refuse to even consider offers for Jonathan Sanchez.

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jan 12, 2011 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Especially right now, when someone might be distracted by the shiny ERA and K’s and ignore the walks and BABIP.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 9:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Especially when you open your comment by talking down on the OP.

Chill pills are in order, methinks.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:14 AM PST up reply actions  

That's offensive.

500 years ago such robbery would be punishable by hanging. Now a wizard like Tim, well, that’s that’s some witchcraft for the stakes.

Get your facts fictions straight.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 13, 2011 12:37 AM PST up reply actions  

I will always remember Holland as "that guy"

Three walks issued after thirteen pitches. In the World Series.

I will never want this guy on my team.

by BusterHomerun on Jan 12, 2011 2:09 AM PST reply actions  

true but, there are some MLB fans out there who would only remember J. Sanchez off his last 3 playoff games…

by repeat_in_2011 on Jan 15, 2011 12:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t trade him, only because he is damn good for being a fourth/fifth starter.

On a side note, is anyone else excited to watch the Rangers next season? I actually kind of like them, now that I don’t have to hate them.

by BrianIsAwesome on Jan 12, 2011 2:45 AM PST reply actions  

No

If you trade Sanchez, you do it by packaging him and getting in return an impact bat and a back of the rotation starter.

31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500

"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010

Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™

by S.F. Giangst on Jan 12, 2011 3:02 AM PST reply actions  

Someone like Brett Gardner.

by EricW on Jan 12, 2011 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Gardner and the Yankees eating most of Rowand’s contract is the deal I would still really like to see.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 13, 2011 12:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Please no. The walk rates look great, and he’s speedy and plays a good left field, but his career .324 BABIP is suspect, and even with that BABIP he’s only hitting .268/.358/.367 over two full seasons. And he did that hitting in Yankee Stadium.

There’s no reason to expect that Brett Gardner and a 4/5 starter is worth Jonathan Sanchez, much less worth seeing Sanchez in pinstripes.

I really hope this is chasm.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I mean Gardner had a really good year last year but that's largely based on his UZR over 20

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

The fact that “impact bat” and “Brett Gardner” were used in the same sentence makes me a wee bit ill.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah that doesn't make a ton of sense

I mean if you trade for Gardner, you get him because you think he turns into someone like Carl Crawford (with less power and more BB’s)

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah. And while defense plays well everywhere, I feel like if there’s one place you want power over speed in our crop of starters, it’s left field, given the demands in RF and CF.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Answer: Yes. I definitely would consider it.

I can understand BusterHomerun’s natural aversion to Holland after the World Series, but Derek is a damn good prospect and pre-arb players who produce are really valuable.

And Holland would replace Sanchez in the rotation, so Rolfyboy’s ‘blasphemy’ label doesn’t make much sense, because it’s not “trading starting pitching”. If anything, it’s a prospect swap, with more goodies added in for the Giants. And it’s a sell-high.

I won’t call my yes-vote a declaration that I would personally make the trade, though. Think of it this way: I like the idea and would certainly consider it. Then I would put my trust in the Giants’ FO (Sabean and his other pitching specialists) to decide for themselves if Holland is worth it, using their pitching scouting that has proved so fruitful in recent times.

My guess is that Sabes’ FO would do that deal.

My adopted son: Jose Casilla.

Man of the Crazy Sink. And owner of a 103 ZiPS ERA+ in 2011.

by dregarx on Jan 12, 2011 5:42 AM PST reply actions  

this line

I’m in it

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 12, 2011 5:52 AM PST up reply actions  

I would do this trade so fast

Not sure I see why the Rangers would though.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 12:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I figured if they would make that offer for Garza, they would for Sanchez

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, if that proposed offer is true, that would make sense

Although, like xanthan said, I think the perception of Sanchez is that he isn’t as good a pitcher.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

That's probably true

And I think going from the AL to the NL should make the stats closer than the FIP and xFIP stats indicate. That said I believe Garza is kinda like Sanchez in that he is inconsisitent too

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Given that he’s been mentioned in trade demands by every franchise with whom we have engaged in trade talks in the last two seasons, I don’t really get that perception.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Yup

Maybe there’s a slight dropoff from Sanchez to Holland, but that’s made up for with whatever we get for trading Ramon Ramirez and having Francisco in the bullpen. Holland’s under team control longer, plus Beltre’s a solid prospect and getting someone else couldn’t hurt. The Giants don’t get better in 2011 with this deal, but they don’t get worse, and the long-term outlook is better.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I honestly won’t be surprised if Holland out-pitches Sanchez in 2011.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

He might, but I do think it’d be a gamble. ZiPS projects Sanchez at 3.66 ERA/114 ERA+ in 172.3 IP and Holland at 4.54 ERA/100 ERA+ in 125 IP. I know projections are just projections, but I feel a little bit like people are starting to undervalue Sanchez now. Holland’s a good prospect, but he is just that – a prospect – and he hardly seems like a sure bet as far as pitching prospects go (if those even exist.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

He was promoted pretty aggressively

In 2008, as a 21 year old, he went from A to A+ to AA, dominating at each level. Then he started 2009 in the majors and struggled pretty heavily as a 22 year old who (not to repeat myself) had started the previous year in A ball. Last year, he put up pretty good numbers both in AAA and in the majors.

I honestly feel that he’s a pretty safe bet (as much as a pitcher can be) to be a very good pitcher. His minor league track record is sterling and the only problem he’s really had in the majors is the long ball, which is no doubt partially attributable to their park.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

See, my problem here is that if he’s a good bet to outperform Sanchez next year AND a good bet to be a “very good pitcher”, why are the Rangers going to want to trade him for Sanchez? Or why (if they really are) are they willing to trade him at all?

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I mean, I agree completely that he’s a very good prospect and he’s a guy I’d like to have in the organization. But I don’t see him as a sure bet – he also had some shoulder issues last year – and the extra years of team control don’t do you much good if he doesn’t pan out.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

If I was the Rangers, I wouldn’t make that trade. Of course, if I was the Rangers I would have started him over Hunter in the playoffs.

FWIW, in regards to the shoulder issues, he did come back with basically the same velocity so that’s encouraging.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Just as an added point

I feel like trading for Holland would increase the need for a viable 6th starter option – not necessarily because he’s a good bet to get injured or anything, but because his career high in IP so far is about 150 and he’s actually been below that number two years in a row.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed on that

That Guillen trade is giving us another bite this season. Pucetas is nothing special, but he would be the best 6th starter option in the organization if we still had him.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

I would agree with this too

I think that Sanchez will throw 20-30 IP more than Holland

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Well this isn’t the ordinary “Sanchez 4 dingerz!!” rant I was expecting to find.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 12, 2011 5:55 AM PST reply actions  

Judging by the poll results.

I have to feel a few people came in and voted simply off of the title.

At least look at the author of the fanpost! It’s Gobroks-written.

My adopted son: Jose Casilla.

Man of the Crazy Sink. And owner of a 103 ZiPS ERA+ in 2011.

by dregarx on Jan 12, 2011 6:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Thanks

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 7:52 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

There is enough information there

to make me want a “perhaps” vote option.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Jan 12, 2011 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

This

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Jan 12, 2011 12:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought it said "Goofus"

…and came here expecting a dick joke

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jan 13, 2011 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Dick jokes are your job.

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jan 13, 2011 4:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure why, but I get the feeling that the average GM will say that Garza > Sanchez. Sanchez is a pitcher that, to me, will always feel undervalued because he’ll look terrible in one start and then brilliant in the next.

I do like Holland a good bit. I think he’s going to do well eventually.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jan 12, 2011 6:21 AM PST reply actions  

I get the impression that Sanchez is a pitcher where the other teams’ scouts and pitching coach turn to the GM and say, “What, are you out of your goddamn mind? Look at his stuff!” And then the teams try to bark down his trade value so that they feel like they can snooker the Giants out of a potential #2 starter and “fix” him so that he is a #2 starter.

Otherwise, I don’t see why he’d keep popping up in trade demands from other teams.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:27 AM PST up reply actions  

I voted NO

it’s not a terrible offer, but the Giants should be in WIN NOW mode. I like Sanchez for 2011 over Holland.

According to Eric Holder, Giants Baseball is NOT torture. OK, it is, but followed by a big bowl of ice cream.

Tim Lincecum: He's a biracial angel.

by yoyomonster on Jan 12, 2011 6:44 AM PST reply actions  

in this line

Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.

by Viliphied on Jan 12, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

/takes place in line

Kruk: "and the Giants, the San Francisco Giants…"
Kuip: "They got one…"
Kruk: "World Champs."
- November 1, 2010

by j14 on Jan 12, 2011 10:30 AM PST up reply actions  

/cuts in front of j14

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jan 13, 2011 9:55 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t want the Giants in WIN NOW mode until Zito and Rowand are off the books, honestly. Stay competitive, but collect as much young talent as you can so you can lock up the pitching and be an NL power from 2013-2016.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Although the lesson of Zito might well be that the young pitching is at its most valuable now, and when we “lock them up” we may well just be ending up with more unproductive long-term contracts.

I don’t think you should ever be prioritizing 5 years from now over this year and next because way too much is unpredictable and out of your control. It’s sort of chasing the big score.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 6:23 AM PST up reply actions  

If you are in a WIN NOW mode, without depth, you will get pennies on the dollar for you investment nine times out of ten.

The Giants are not in need of a show-me season to boost ticket sales, and have the core of young talent to be competitive in the long run, especially when some $30 million – solidly a quarter of their payroll – comes off the books after 2012 and 2013. If they field a competitive squad for the next two years and don’t return to a McGowan-era strategy of shunning the farm system to overpay creaky veteran free agents, I will be largely satisfied.

You can’t predict what will happen, but given the current core of young talent under 29 – Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and more reasons for hope in the minors, 2013-2014 and beyond could be a great era for the Giants, and there’s reasons to expect that most if not all of the aforementioned core can be intact for that period.

Some of our best players aren’t even in their peak years yet. “Win Now” doesn’t seem sensible to me.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I would say our best players are Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, and Sanchez and they all are probably in their peak right now. Also, after Belt our farm system gets spotty in a hurry.

But more to the point, I think this organization has the resources to be in perma-Win mode at this point. They should be assembling championship calibar rosters annually. Yes, the Yankees and Red Sox pay more per Win than anybody else (well, no the Cubs I guess would probably hold that honor), but I don’t think anybody in either organization or fanbase is terribly bothered by that fact.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 7:31 AM PST up reply actions  

It’s also worth mentioning that the stadium will finish being paid off in the coming years, which should add flexibility to the payroll.

Right now, the payroll is more or less at the point of saturation, right around $120 million. Saturated to the point that we apparently can’t sign replacement level starters to come pitch in Fresno for us. That smacks of an inflexibility which could mean that one unfortunate injury could sink a season.

If the Giants had the pieces to make a championship run AND more evidence of flexibility to make needed adjustments mid-seasons, I would be more okay with a WIN NOW attitude.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

They pretty clearly do have flexibility. There’s some debate on what extent the stadium payments have represented real moneys as opposed to debt structurings. More to the point, it hasn’t gone up as much over the last 6 years as you can see their increased revenues have. The had a mid-$90 million payroll in 2002/2003, and since then they’ve signed the Comcast deal, while baseball has seen a flood of new revenues from XM, Direct TV, Comcast, and the whopper, MLB.com.

I’m happy for the owners to make money, and I’m happy that this offseason they’ve shown a willingness to raise payroll to meet needs for continued success. But I see nothing that suggests that if they wanted to spend $150 million, they couldn’t do it.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 7:47 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t have access to their books, so I won’t speculate on that. But word from the bow tie brigade is that the Giants are planning to cap out at about $120 this coming season, and are very close to that mark after estimates for our arb-eligible players.

Regardless, I’m in favor of staying a little stingier this season so that we can pay Timmy, Cain, Buster, Madison, and Pablo in the coming seasons, and still have enough left over to surround them with talent. I’d just as soon not wind up a paper tiger like I suspect the Rockies will be, especially towards the end of the Gonzalez and Tulowitzki deals.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Probably not. I mean you’re basically banking on the idea that one day Holland will be as good as Sanchez and Beltre feels like he’s a bit of a long way away from the majors (I know he played in AA last year, but his career SLG is under .400 and he slugged .337 in AA last year… even if he’s there at that young age, it could turn into, idk, Fernando Martinez… who actually produced a hell of a lot better to that point than Beltre has so far.)

If the Giants had finished under .500 last year or something, I would probably be all for it, but given the context of how the Giants actually performed last year, I feel like this would be a pretty tough deal to sell and I’m not sure it would really be worth it anyway.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 7:54 AM PST reply actions  

Plus, with Francisco making so much money, it doesn’t do anything on that front.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 7:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh I didn’t realize Wieland was a part of the deal too. I like him a lot and the Giants do need more pitching depth in the minors. Again, though, I’m not sure that at this point, trading Sanchez is the right way to do it. And if you trade Sanchez for a guy who blew up in the WS, an expensive reliever, and two prospects, I feel like the fanbase would not be happy at all.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 7:56 AM PST up reply actions  

I just chose Weiland because I felt that he has similar value to Chirinos

I do see your point about angering the fanbase though

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Sanchez will make more money than Francisco next year, so we’d be saving money with this deal. Holland’s salary would be same as whichever reliever we cut/traded (probably Ramirez), so that’s a wash.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Gobroks is projecting Francisco at almost $5 mil for next year. I feel like Jonathan is going to be in the 5-6 million range, so that doesn’t seem like a significant savings.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

I believe arb raises usually go up by 50%

So I got 3.2 + 1.6 and rounded up. I could be wrong though

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 1:56 PM PST up reply actions  

He could well be. Jonathan made $2.1 million last year then had a pretty good year – I don’t know quite what that means for his salary next year.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd guess he gets between 4.5 and 5.5

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, we wouldn’t suddenly have an extra $10M or anything. But it seemed like you were suggesting that the Giants would have a payroll increase.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

How is that so? I said “it wouldn’t do anything on that front”, which meant “it wouldn’t save us any money”.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

That’s just how I read it. Common problem on the internet when we don’t have facial expressions and intonation to give clues.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m in this line.

"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."

by Ceora on Jan 12, 2011 4:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I hate to say it, but Zito makes it tough to roll the dice on our southpaws… at least until we see what Runzler can do.

by KrazyKrabMeat on Jan 12, 2011 8:24 AM PST reply actions  

No

"Time for the laser show, boys!"- Aubrey Huff
2010 World Series Champions San Francisco Giants

by 49er16 on Jan 12, 2011 8:30 AM PST reply actions  

interesting batch of young players. The crux of it IMO is whether Sanchez ever gets more even tempered. He has the throwing talent. Athleticism. Some secondary pitches. But if Sabes and Boch believe that Sanchez will always be just one incident away from a meltdown and a second inning benching, then they are more likely to make a deal like this. Of course other GMs have seen video too.
Impact bat would be nice but our position is not real strong. Yes there is the occassional brilliant game, but there’s the other as well. I haven’t followed Holland. Can he pitch with the game on the line? Ron Washington doesn’t think so any more.

former adoptive papa of "Geno" Eugenio Velez, Antoin Jamison, and Adam Wittler--

by foothillsfan on Jan 12, 2011 8:33 AM PST reply actions  

I would’ve traded Bumgarner for Greinke.

by dhp318 on Jan 12, 2011 8:51 AM PST reply actions  

Greinke scares me

SF isn’t NY or Philly, but being a Giant is defintely more of a high profile gig. I’m not cofident he’d thrive here.

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jan 13, 2011 9:58 AM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t. Bumgarner’s very good right now, has tremendous potential, and is cheap and under team control for a long time. Greinke, while an excellent pitcher, was only really brilliant in 2009, and he’ll cost more and be gone sooner, and that’s ignoring the possible psychological issues.

"Lee pitches...Renteria hits a high drive, deep left-center field, David Murphy going back, he's on the warning track—it is...go-one!"

by El Person on Jan 13, 2011 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I probably wouldn't have done that

Just because Greinke is only team control for 2 more years and MadBum is under control for 5 more years. That said, I would’ve tried to match Milwaukee’s offer

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 3:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Also I should add

Greinke is owed 27 Million (IIRC) over the next 2 years

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 3:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I see sentences like this and it makes me remember how absurd baseball money is.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Speaking of which

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/yankees-agree-to-sign-rafael-soriano.html

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 10:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I voted no

because we shouldn’t be paying a “closer” > 3 mil if his name is not Beck, Nen, or Wilson. Not because names are actually worth anything, but because those guys were/are all better closers than Francisco. Relievers are fungible, overpaying them is bad. If the deal included Andrus or Young (yeah right) instead of Francisco, I’d do it.

by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Jan 12, 2011 10:02 AM PST reply actions  

I absolutely think we should trade Jonathan

But I think that any package we trade him for should include a 5th starter.

My Adopted Giant
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.

by GiantPain on Jan 12, 2011 10:51 AM PST reply actions  

Whoops!

For some reason I thought Holland was a relief pitcher.

I don’t think I’d do the deal you outlined there, if only because of positional considerations. I’d rather trade Jonathan for 5th starter + one decent young position player (ss) than for a grab bag.

My Adopted Giant
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.

by GiantPain on Jan 12, 2011 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Seems like a steal for the Giants. Beltre is a major prospect, isn’t he?

Garza seems to me a lot closer to Cain than to Sanchez, though maybe salary/contract considerations change that somewhat.

by Evan on Jan 12, 2011 11:06 AM PST reply actions  

Maybe I’m nuts, but I think I’d trade Sanchez for Holland straight up.

by Evan on Jan 12, 2011 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

This line, me

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, I probably would too

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with Jponry that in a season where you’re trying to repeat you have to focus on this year, but even if we’d finished out of the playoffs last year, I don’t think I’d do that. Holland is still a good prospect, but I’d say there’s a very good chance that Sanchez will provided more value in the next two years than Holland will in the next six. An excellent chance really. Holland’s K rates in the minors were never as good as Sanchez’ (in fact Sanchez major league K rate matches Holland’s minor league K rate) and Holland’s BB rates haven’t been that great so far in the majors (plus he’s been very hittable so far). He’s still got a bit of a hill to climb before he becomes a Sanchez, and it seems to me there’s more chance he won’t, than there is that Sanchez can’t deliver two more years roughly equivalent to last season.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 12, 2011 1:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it would be risky, but there’s some chance he ends up better than Sanchez, maybe as soon as this year. His strikeout numbers are weirdly up and down, but he throws harder than Sanchez, seems to have better control, is four years younger, etc.

by Evan on Jan 12, 2011 6:49 PM PST up reply actions  

In the abstract, yes.

However, the Giants are in Win-Now-Again mode, so for this team I’d ask for more.

My adopted son: Jose Casilla.

Man of the Crazy Sink. And owner of a 103 ZiPS ERA+ in 2011.

by dregarx on Jan 12, 2011 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

This as well

Plus, once Pavano signs (it’s been reported that he’s close to re-signing with the Twins) there are no good SP’s on the market, so Sanchez’s value would increase

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 12, 2011 7:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Sickels has Beltre as a B/B- prospect.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

So, like, a good prospect but I don’t think a “HOLY SHIT WE GOT ENGEL BELTRE!!!” type of thing.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jan 12, 2011 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

trade Durty? we talkin bout this again? geez....

here’s the list of who we can trade durty for, all of whom are unavailable

pujols,
fielder,
braun
AGonzalez
maybe a few others,,,,,but otherwise we don’t trade durty until we find a lefthanded replacement….and his name is not Zeets

Trade Sabean/jk...Fire the Ydorks...

by Regulus on Jan 12, 2011 11:25 AM PST reply actions  

Derek Holland is a left-handed replacement whose name is not Zeets.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

LOL

Aiming way way way too high. Sanchez is no where near that good. And this proposed trade finds us that LH replacement (not that we absolutely have to have a LH replacement).

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.

by marcello on Jan 12, 2011 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Sanchez < Garza if for no other reason than their contractual status. We have 2 more years of club control on Sanchez and Garza has another full year. So you can’t expect to get the package that the Rays got.

That said – I would trade Sanchez if you could get value from him. I think he is a regression candidate, particularly with the arm fatigue we saw from him as his innings built up near the end of the season and into the playoffs.

by Bochy's IT guy on Jan 12, 2011 12:05 PM PST reply actions  

I had forgotten that. Real dropoff in velocity after the big win, was that the San Diego finale?
I wonder if it was arm fatigue, or he got so tense he did not do a real windup, just strode (strided) toward the plate and flung (flinged?) it.

former adoptive papa of "Geno" Eugenio Velez, Antoin Jamison, and Adam Wittler--

by foothillsfan on Jan 12, 2011 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

If it was the San Diego finale and he followed that up by no-hitting the Braves for six innings then I don’t think losing velocity is a concern.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

My ‘no’ vote is entirely because I would be hesitant to mess with the primary reason for the first WS championship in San Francisco Giants history.

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jan 12, 2011 1:36 PM PST reply actions  

We should trade our entire starting rotation, plus zach wheeler, for a can of tomatoes.

by spacedout on Jan 12, 2011 1:50 PM PST reply actions  

But tomatoes are gross.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 12, 2011 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t want to depend on Holland for 180 IP next year. I feel like Sanchez had a bit of a lucky 2010, but he’s still a 2-3 win pitcher under control for a couple more seasons. If we had another good 5th/6th starter option, I’d say yes. But we don’t. The next 2-3 seasons are probably the best window for another title that the Giants will have for a long, long time.

by jasomack on Jan 12, 2011 6:32 PM PST reply actions  

Two Giants on the Top 50 memorable nicknames: #5 Willie Mays, #48 Tim Lincecum

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jan 12, 2011 6:59 PM PST reply actions  

If the team was in a rebuilding mode it would be different

The strength of this team is throwing out lincecum, cain,Sanchez, and Bumgarner at teams
Zito has to pitch too. If the giants were 500 or below, and needed to rebuild it would be a
different story. Take it from Uncle Albert, everything is relative.

by bradleybear on Jan 12, 2011 9:39 PM PST reply actions  

Buy Low, Sell High

If the Rays can constantly compete and build on a shoestring budget, the Giants can do it on a $100mm budget. I’d do this trade in a heartbeat. The goal is to put together a top-level team while constantly building from within. This is how you do it. Zito and Bumgarner make a fine #3 and #4. Holland would slot into #5. Sabean needs to pick up some AAAA starters for positional depth.

by Nivra on Jan 13, 2011 12:27 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

The Rays have only been competitive for three years. Let’s give them a couple more seasons without really high draft picks to see if they can sustain success; remember, they had the #1 overall pick in 2008, two drafts ago.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 13, 2011 12:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Twins wouldve been a better example. They had one sub .500 season this decade and had 85 or more wins 8 times.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 13, 2011 12:57 AM PST up reply actions  

The sound you hear is the Yankees scoffing at the Twins’ notion of success.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 13, 2011 12:59 AM PST up reply actions  

well if youre looking for a team that’s had consistent success on a fairly limited budget the Twins are as good as youre going to find. Its a lot tougher to compete the way they have with their budget than it is to do what the Yankees have done in the 2000s with their budget.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 13, 2011 1:52 AM PST up reply actions  

And yet, it really feels like the band is breaking up in Minneapolis this offseason. The major bats are still intact, and presumably they’re getting Nathan back, but they don’t look nearly as good as they did coming into last season.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Once they sign Pavano, won’t they have pretty much the entire team returning from last year plus Nathan and Morneau? And Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere coming up? And several of their bats still young? Don’t get that perception.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 6:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Gone: Crain and Guerrier, Brendan Harris, and their whole middle infield (Hudson and Hardy). Possibly Fuentes and Rauch, and also Punto and Thome. Their infield defense takes a hit right off, plus a large chunk of their very strong bullpen. Thome’s value as a DH or bench bat is what it is.

New: Nishioka, Jacobson and Hoey, Scott Diamond. So, a middle infielder of undetermined position and value, and three relievers.

Back/healthy: Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau. Hopefully Morneau actually manages to play a full season this year, which would mitigate much of the cost of losing Thome. And Joe Nathan is Joe Nathan.

Still problematic: Starting pitching. It’s obviously important that they retain Pavano, and Liriano is a great #2, but Baker and Blackburn are not really a great 3/4 for a team that wants to make it through the playoffs. They need 2008 Baker pretty badly.

Also problematic: The White Sox have been extremely aggressive on improving their roster this offseason, and while they faded late, they’re not that far off the pace the Twins have set, and the Tigers are always in the conversation. In other words, I’m guessing there will be less than 13 games separating the AL Central this year.

They’re not a bad team by any stretch, but they two big sources of strength in their 2B/SS combo and their late relievers sans Nathan. The added pieces of Nishioka, Diamond, Hicks, and Revere have plenty of potential, but are largely unproven at the major league level. I just don’t see them as being as good a team as they were last year at this point.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:30 AM PST up reply actions  

But the biggest source of their stength last year was their offense, wasn’t it? They were the 4th or 5th best offense in the league and their offense is not only coming back pretty completely, but with room to improve it seems to me. I do like the White Sox, too, but I think both will be competitive, and I can certainly see a scenario in which the Wild Card comes from the Central this year and not the East.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 7:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Now that they’ve been humiliated by the Yankees two years in a row in the Division Series, I’d surmise that offesne alone isn’t doing it for them. They need to be a deeper team than one that wins slugfests. And if you can’t get through the ALDS with 2 really good pitchers, I don’t know how they expect to survive a 7-game series.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh, Come on.
Now that they’ve been humiliated by the Yankees two years in a row in the Division Series, I’d surmise that offesne alone isn’t doing it for them.

5-game playoff series are a total crapshoot! You know this.

My adopted son: Jose Casilla.

Man of the Crazy Sink. And owner of a 103 ZiPS ERA+ in 2011.

by dregarx on Jan 18, 2011 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Minnesota has a payroll that is now pushing $100 million.

For that matter, Tampa Bay’s was over $70 mil last year, which is a shoestring budget I’d sure like to get on, though they appear intent on cutting it back to about $20-25 this year which will be far far lower than anybody else’s and frankly pretty ridiculous. I’d guess they’ll make something close to that much in revenues from their share of MLB.com alone.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 6:38 AM PST up reply actions  

An investment to try and build a winning brand to help bring in more revenue and expand payroll in the long term.

Didn’t work. Florida baseball fans suck, apparently.

And have you looked at the Padres’, Pirates’, or Marlins’ payrolls lately? $45 million would probably be larger than any of those.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:32 AM PST up reply actions  

League wide payrolls are up dramatically, because the sport is awash in cash. I believe I read last month that more teams will have payrolls above $140 million than below $70.

Looking at BR, Tampa currently has $16.3 mil in signed contracts, which is right with San Diego ($15.2) at the bottom of MLB by far, although I wonder if the SD number includes the Bartlett contract they just signed. That of course, doesn’t include players under control who haven’t yet agreed to terms, so those numbers will be going up, but the Marlins already have $41.5 in contracts and they too under control players left to lock up. Last year they were about $50 million and it looks like that will go up this year by a decent margin.

But yes, those teams you mentioned, along with Tampa and KC are far and away the lowest spending clubs.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 7:43 AM PST up reply actions  

“Back in my day, a win only cost $3 million! We just had to walk through a snowstorm to get it, uphill both ways!”

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 7:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes the Twins payroll has shot up the last several years, but doesn’t that just make them an even better example of how to have sustained success? Consistent winning produces a new stadium and greatly increased revenue that makes it even easier to continue to be competitive.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jan 13, 2011 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Who was it we drafted in 2008?

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 13, 2011 12:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, the Rays have only been above .500 for three years in their existence, and in one of those they weren’t really terribly competitve, finishing just over .500 and 20 games out of first. And I think there’s a decent chance for some serious backsliding in the coming years, although quincy disagrees heavily.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 6:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Sanchez is poised at a corner.

He appeared to turn it in September, right around second base. Seems to me that he will always be wrestling with a shaky head game, but with the bullishness to push through it. He’s a shittalker and he’ll continue to get his shit shut up in humiliating fashion, but his team is talented enough to bail him out when it gets dire. It’s all in whether you think he can sustain the BABIP dip that coincided with his first good season. Did he find himself or sell his soul for the world series?

 I say keep him, because he’s a fiery fellow who takes after Randy Johnson on his best days, strikeouts, no-hitters, and all. And when he completely melts down, which he surely will, remember what we learned in Game 6: The ’pen is his posse.

My prediction: Pablo and Dirty are riding the same wave. Either they both find their groove, or they both plunge.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on Jan 13, 2011 12:56 AM PST reply actions  

I read this as "posed at a corner"

and pictured him leaning against a street light pole looking all James Dean.

EL GUAPO!

The thong is, it happened.

by Goofus on Jan 13, 2011 10:04 AM PST up reply actions  

They might be on similar waves, but I don’t buy the both or neither part.

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jan 13, 2011 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I voted no, simply because I’m not sold on Holland at this juncture. If he had one more year of seasoning I might do it, but he just feels like an unfinished product at a time when we don’t have the depth to make a leap of faith on him.

I’m not necessarily opposed to the idea of trading Sanchez, but I’d argue that while this might be a fair trade, I’d need to see more on the table to pull the trigger with conviction.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 13, 2011 4:37 AM PST reply actions  

SANCHEZ RULES!

WORLD CHAMPS1

Trade Sabean/jk...Fire the Ydorks...

by Regulus on Jan 13, 2011 10:49 AM PST reply actions  

I just don't see Sanchez improving

His xFIP has been identical 4 years running. His BB/9 rate are consistent as heck and so are his K/9 rates. His HR/FB rate is almost exactly league average.

His fantastic 2010 ERA was clearly due to his very low BABIP and very high strand rate. Neither of which are predictable for 99% of major league pitchers. If he had posted improved BB/9 or improved K/9 I’d see reason for optimism.

As it is, I fully expect 2011 to be a 3 year average of 2008-2010, or around 4.2 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and ~170 IP. If anything, the high workload in 2010 including the playoffs makes me think he may do slightly worse.

Holland projects out to a very similar pitcher, with perhaps more durability concerns. He doesn’t have Sanchez’ 3 year track record of 170+ IP. But he has more upside, and the trade comes with three extra pieces. Definitely worth it, IMO.

Regardless, now seems like the best time to trade Sanchez before he turns back into a 4.20 ERA league average pumpkin. We’ve already got one of those in Zito.

by Nivra on Jan 13, 2011 4:30 PM PST reply actions  

Never say never but I wouldn't do the trade

I’ve been saying for years now that any Sanchez trade would be for too little, and I think this is too, though it is getting close. Get rid of Francisco, we don’t need him. Add in Martin Perez or Profar to the package, probably preferably Profar, plus another lower prospect the Giants scouts like (I wouldn’t mind Mike Olt).

A pitcher who can strikeout so many batters is very rare and should be treated as such. Few here has understood this. The other team should be overpaying to get him. The package above is an overpay, but we got the pitcher and don’t really need to move him, particularly given the depth issue for the Giants in 2011.

My hope is that the Giants sign Sanchez to a long-term extension that goes into his free agent years, that will give them leverage to trade him after the 2011 season when Sanchez should have “proven” in minds of others that this is his real talent level and thus worthy of overpaying for him. I would even overpay a little bit just to get that extra year or two, as that would enhance his value in trade.

I agree that there will be some regression to Sanchez in 2011 relative to 2010, but at the same time, if he regresses to the 3.78 ERA that Baseball Forecaster predicts or 3.71 ERA that Bill James says, that is still pretty good and will, I think, make other teams more likely to bid more for him than us trying to trade him now.

I would like to get a package close to what the A’s got for Haren a few years back (don’t expect as good, since not as good, but that’s the target we move off of). That would stock up our system nicely for 2012-2014. If he can do well again in 2011, which I think he can, that just might get us that big package, particularly if tied with a nice contract extension. And by then, we would have better idea of how close Wheeler is and how good Bumgarner is.

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Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"Be a lot of happy" - Juan Uribe
"We deserve this" Sabean
"Not here to make friends, I'm here to win games" - Bruce Bochy
Q: "This doesn't happen every year." Posey: "Why not?"
"Do it again Baby!" Huff
"Let's get back to work and make another run at it" Posey

2010's will be known as "Decade of the Giants"

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 13, 2011 5:21 PM PST reply actions  

Supply and Demand

FA pitchers are in scarce supply this off-season. Hence the trades of Marcum, Greinke, and Garza, and others. Lee and Greinke were the only aces available. Sanchez would solidly fall into the second tier of starters available.

His value now is likely higher than it will be in two years, and who’s to say there won’t be a flood of starters available then? Now seems like the ideal time to trade him.

Is there a package Cashman could put together to pry Sanchez from the Giants? God knows the Yanks are desperate for pitching.

by Nivra on Jan 13, 2011 6:05 PM PST up reply actions  

We can all dream of the great package a guy like Sanchez could return, but realistically even aces are mostly being acquired for mediocre packages in the past few years. The Haren and Bedard deals were mother loads, but most of the rest of the blockbusters have been weak to poor returns (putting aside the Colon deal which was really unique set of circumstances). Heck Cliff Lee’s been traded three times in the last year and a half and the three trades together aren’t the return that some people are suggesting here for Sanchez.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 13, 2011 6:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Cost-controlled years matter.

Cliff Lee was traded with half a season, a full season, and a year and a half left until free agency. Sanchez has two years left. Cost-controlled years matter a lot, and is one of the reasons why the Rays were able to command so much for Garza.

Gobroks is speculating on actual trade rumors. Obviously we wouldn’t get a Haren like haul, but the Rangers package seems decent. Would anyone do it straight up for Montero from the Yanks(who was rumored to be offered straight up for Greinke?). Sure, he’s blocked by Belt, but we could flip him for pitching, and he grades out as a better prospect than Belt, even.

by Nivra on Jan 13, 2011 7:46 PM PST up reply actions  

So much that three months of Sanchez would much more valuable than Lee? Frankly I don’t think the Rays got that much for Garza. I can easily see this deal looking no better than the Santana deal three years from now.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 14, 2011 4:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Did you just read Jim Callis' piece at BA about this subject?

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 10:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I did not. Is it in the new edition or just the site?

MY DAD WAS WRONG!
MY BOY NEEDS TO THROW HARDER!

by Roger on Jan 14, 2011 4:47 AM PST up reply actions  

I believe just the site-here's the link (sub Req'd)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/column/2011/2611135.html

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 15, 2011 12:05 AM PST up reply actions  

I read somewhere that there are currently a lot of good starters whose contracts end after the 2012 season, so trading Sanchez in two years would devalue them. I can’t see any other time than now to trade Sanchez, unless the Yankees’ rotation is so bad next year that they finish in third place (which I expect them to) and Cashman needs to add an arm. That’s the only team that has big rotation holes and could be realistically pressured into overpaying for a pitcher.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 13, 2011 7:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Mid-season is always a good option, too.

If the Giants pick up some decent AAAA depth, mid-season is not a bad time to do a trade. A lot of times, you can pick up a lot of value when a team like the Yankees, Cubs, or Rangers have mid-season rotation injuries.

Of course, if Sanchez is due for regression, it’s better to trade him NOW, before his Strand rate and BABIP revert to his true form. He won’t be worth as much with a mid 4’s ERA than he is right now.

by Nivra on Jan 13, 2011 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

If we get Profar I'd be thrilled

That said I can’t see Texas giving him up. (And FWIW Olt can’t be traded until next year). As for signing Sanchez to an extension, I’d be ok (depending on the cost)-if it was only for 2 years (like De La Rosa) I’d be happy, but anything more than that I’d be worried.

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Jan 13, 2011 10:36 PM PST up reply actions  

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