Hey Bochy: play Nate
by lexluth7 on Sep 9, 2010 8:37 AM PDT
Email
PrintThis is not a general, Nate is getting screwed post. That has been hashed and rehashed. This is specific. The Giants-Pads series this year has been defined by low scoring one run games. This series promises to be no different.
Petco is a big outfield. Playing both Burrell and Guillen is dangerous - especially when one considers that the Pads offense still centers around speed and, for lack of a better word, opportunism. Last nite was a great example. Some guy named Durango beats out an infield hit on a ball that Theriot double pumps and is late getting off the throw. He promptly steals second. Gonzales gets an INT and Tejada gets the big hit.
Burrell deserves to play because he actually is a threat to go deep - anywhere. And he's had some huge hits. That leaves right field. What Bochy needs to conside is what is the more likely outcome: Guillen helping with power (so far he's shown very little to say the least) or Guillen allowing a ball to drop ad/or getting to a base hit slowly, thus allowing the extra base. Personally I think that is an easy call.
So why not Ross? Simple - he's looked absolutely awful against right handers.
That leaves Nate. He's the best Rightfielder of the three. He can run a bit. And he's had some good at bats lately. Plus he's coming off a huge hit. Why not give it a shot and see if you catch lightning in a bottle. Maybe that carries over at the plate.
Problem is: to do this would require Bochy to step outside his comfort zone. He won't (or can't) do that.So that means, I suspect that we see Guillen tonight and against Stauffer and Latos and Ross against Richards.
Which brings me to a major difference between Black and Bochy. Black is willing to take major risks. How else do you explain changing 2/5th of your rotation in Septemeber. Bochy is not. I think that is a huge advantage for the Pads.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
94 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Why is Guillen?
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
He made sense pre-Ross
But now, every time he starts in RF I wonder how Bochy can be that stupid.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Fixed
But now, every timehe starts in RFI think about the Giants manager I wonder how Bochy can be that stupid.
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Sep 10, 2010 5:37 AM PDT up reply actions
"glad I'm not alone here"
Yes you are. Have you ever read this board? Everybody here loves Jose Guillen. I actually think the entire Guillen family took over the board when he came here, because all I read about here is how great he is. I’m actually sick and tired of it already.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
by rxmeister on Sep 10, 2010 8:28 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I know I love Jose Guillen, but would love him so much more if he played for the Padres and/or Dodgers.
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Sep 10, 2010 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
i have never read this board
it makes commenting less fun
There’s a pretty good argument to be made that Nate should be the starting RF. Only Ross is better offensively, and Schierholtz gets the edge defensively. With Burrell in left, putting Nate in right would allow Torres to cheat more towards LF and nullify some of Burrell’s range issues. And I’m not convinced that Ross is better enough offensively to justify the defensive difference. However, I’m not sure this is true in Petco; the low-scoring nature of Giants-Padres games makes me think that maybe the offensive upgrade is the game-changer here, not the defensive upgrade; since it’s harder to score a run than save a run (at least, that has been the theme of these meetings), maybe Ross is a better idea because he gives you more of a chance to score runs.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
I think this isn’t quite the right way to think about it. A run is a run, whether it’s scored or saved. The question is this: If we postulate that Nate and Ross are equivalent players on a neutral field, with Nate +5 with the glove (relative to Ross) and Ross +5 with the bat, how do those numbers change in Petco? I’m not sure. Both will obviously be smaller, but will their relative level change? My sense is that much of Ross’s advantage with the bat comes from his ability to hit HRs, and that is neutralized by the park, which would seem to mitigate in favor of Schierholtz, but I’m by no means married to this analysis.
I should add that this is mostly a theoretical exercise; I actually think Nate is probably more than five runs worse with the bat than Ross, which makes it much less likely that he could be the better option unless you really buy into the idea that the overall improvement in the OF defense by playing Schierholtz is greater than than the difference simply between these two players (because Nate effectively makes Burrell better).
Anyway, Guillen will be starting three of the four games this weekend. Enjoy!
Obviously a run saved=a run scored, but the point is that given the Giants’ inability to score runs and the relative defensive ability of our center fielder and second baseman (the two fielders closest two and most important to the right fielder in terms of range), we should play the player who works to address what is a relative weakness – offense – instead of a relative strength – defense. For example, look at the Mariners and Padres this year; both clubs have problems scoring runs, but they’re also excellent on pitching and defense. The reason this has worked for the Padres and not for the Mariners is because while the M’s players are probably better defensively (even if the metrics don’t really agree with that this year; Tony Gwynn Jr. is not a 15 run CF and Gutierrez and Figgins are better than UZR says), the Padres actually have a few guys who can hit a little. While the expected run differential between an all-defense no-hit team and a mostly-defense little-hit team might be the same, I don’t think that would actually be the case because of the law of diminishing returns; that is, the more you upgrade one area, the more expensive each upgrade becomes relative to the previous one, and if the Giants play Ross over Schierholtz, I think they will be maximizing their potential output for this reason.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
I agree with all of this.
I still cling to the notion Nate could be a league average player at least.
Also: Durango
I really do not want to see Guillen hobbling to a ball down the right field line turning a double into a triple or worse.
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
I’d say Nate already is a league-average player. Even though he’s been pretty hideous with the bat this year, he’s got a 0.8 WAR in only 232 PAs. That obviously requires some faith in his freaky-high UZR, but even if you knock him down to 10/150, he wouldn’t have to hit much better at all to get to 2 WAR in 500 PAs.
by taliesin on Sep 9, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thing is
If anyone could understand the merits of playing Ross or Nate over Guillen at Petco, it should be Bochy. If he lives up to our expectations, and goes with Guillen, it really reinforces the fact that he doesn’t know what he’s doing now, and didn’t know what he was doing when he was in San Diego either.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
I can see Ross over Guillen
but definitely not Nate…
For all arguments against Guillen defensively and baserunning…he’s still raking the ball…
Raking?
With the Giants, Guillen has hit one HR and three doubles in 73 PAs; he’s hitting .319/.356/.406/.762, which is about average for a RF. Given his “defense,” I believe it’s almost certain that he’s subtracting value.
You're Right
It’s below average for a Giants RF.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
He is actually hitting pretty well but...
not for POWER. The problem with a Guillen single is it leaves Guillen on the base paths. For him to be a viable offensive option he HAS to get a lot of extra base hits. Because he doesn’t walk much and he’s slow. In other words – the same arguments we made vis a vis Molina. And Bengie at least was not a defensive liability to boot.
I agree with all that say this won’t happen. It’s too bad. Guillen scares me in this series.
I am agreeing with you a lot today.
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
Bengie at least was not a defensive liability to boot.
542703578 “wild pitches” from this year disagree with you.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
This
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Sep 10, 2010 5:39 AM PDT up reply actions
being that Bowker is no longer a giant, Schierholtz should play.
My outfield tonight, Ford in Center, Let him lead off, but single, steals second, advances to third on an out
and comes home on a ground out. That at least give the giants 1 run. Torres in left and Schierholtz in right.
Speed in San Diego. Huff at first, sanchez or lefty replacement at second, ss toss up between renteria and
Uribe, and third Pablo. Posey catching. Time for Posey to step it up like he did in Milwaukee. I also want to
know who is umping, because except for a play here in there, the Pads have really gotten some home plate
strike zone advantage. I wonder whose umpiring family Black is related to. Although they did get a bad call
yesterday on the basepath, it was inconsequential.
LOL you
I would like to see Bochy NOT replace Burrell in the outfield before he takes Guillen out. That would be a lovely start.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Very good point
I have wondered over and over again why Burrell is the first one out for a defesneive replacement.
BECAUSE GUILLEN'S ARM!!!
/ignores Guillen’s legs
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I wonder..
if he would be faster running on his arms ?
Adopted Son: !Matt Downs I'll miss you my son.
Because Bochy is an incompetent boob
He has taken Burrell out time and time again and tonight is another example. He goes two for two with a monster fucking home run, and that nit wit takes him out of the game. It’s like Bochy doesn’t want Burrell to get any kind of roll going. In addition, Burrell’s defense has not been that bad.
by jasperlamarcrabbe on Sep 9, 2010 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
He's like Renteria
Limited range, but he catches/doesn’t misplay the balls he gets to. It’s not great, but at least it’s decent and reliable.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
lets continue with this logic.
lineup
Ford CF
Torres LF
Posey C
Huff 1B
Pablo 3b
Velez 2b,
Schierholtz RF
Burress ss
Now we have the speed except for our 3,4, and 5 hitters who
can make their pitchers jittery on the mound if any of these
speedsters get on base. Note the Pads use guys who flash
tons of speed who hit 230. But when they get on base they
wreak havoc.
jesus
you can’t score runs if you can’t get guys on base, and Burriss and Ford have shown no ability to get on base.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
"ZIPS Is Indeed Supose To Science." --GRM
The Padres also have scored 19 less runs than the Giants
They also have a lower avg., OBP, SLG, less sacrifice hits, and struck out 45 more times than the Giants.
Padres have drawn more walks than the Giants (469 v. 430)
The two teams have about equal BABIP (SD .292 v. SF .295)
At first, I was intrigued by a team with so much speed.
Then I realized the distinct possibility of being no-hit by the Pads.
"Pablo Sandoval, coming around third like a runaway beer truck." - Kruk
I still don’t understand how you line break like that.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Sep 9, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, yeah, that makes sense. And it’s so simple, too. Although I still wonder why he’s the only one it ever happens to. Others must post from phones occasionally.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Sep 9, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Say what?
This is a line
of simple text.
How does it break?
Where I want!
And what do I
to accomplish this
mastery of breaks?
Hit <Enter>!
Have I misinterpreted
the question?
Sabean delenda est!
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Troll post?
There’s NO WAY this can possibly be serious.
This would be awesome of Ford and Burriss could hit
Too bad they can’t.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
OMG VELEZ?!
At 2B? Holy shit this is terrible.
Also does not help if you have speed but are a terrible baserunner.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
This.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
For Ross, yeah
But he’s got two years worth of data from the Marlins that says he’s a good hitter, and Nate has had some experience, though inconsistent, over the last few years. It’d be nice to have more information on Schierholtz considering he seems skilled, but bork.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
This
His career numbers and # of PA’s are so unreliable to me because he’s never had enough playing time. He SHOULD have gotten 500 PA’s when the Giants weren’t contending but he didn’t. I’m not saying Schierholtz is an amazing hitter but if we had consistent data on both of them then we could make a better decision about who is better Ross or Schierholtz.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
Nate, Cody, whoever
PETCO certainly demands the “two vrooms and a boom” OF alignment.
Mark DeRosa is playing exactly the same amount of professional baseball as his adopted father, these days.
by oldjacket on Sep 9, 2010 12:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Schierholtz or Ross . . .
. . . it’s a fairly close thing. We still don’t know for sure what Schierholtz’s offense abilities really are, but the early part of this year suggets decent but not outstanding if he is played regularly. That’s the real issue, I think: Ross or Schierholtz (or, ideally, both, with one of them a position-rotating fourth outfielder) needs regular play, which means no Guillen, no Rowand, no Huff in the OF.
Sabean delenda est!
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Forget that notion
And not because I think your wrong. I think most of us agree with you. I certainly do.
But Bochy is like a flipping mad scientist when it comes to lineups. He is incapable, as far as I can tell, of going to anything resembling a “set” lineup.
Corrected:
He is incapable, as far as I can tell, of going to anything resembling a "set" lineup.
Sabean delenda est!
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
I know one thing about Schierholtz
for sure:
He’s not a cast-off, dfa’d designated hitter. I mean there is dumpster diving, and then there is digging up mass graves looking for corpses.
This game never ceases to amaze me when three dhs who get shown the door in their thirties, change leagues, get starting jobs and manage to help increase the run production of their new team over the prior year’s by about 50 runs.
Amazing
by Roy Hobbs Jr. on Sep 10, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
lol at hoping Bochy uses the right outfielders. He will have an OF of Velez – Torres – Guillen and enjoy every minute of it.
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
Adopted parent of good old Wendell, he tries so hard. You'll get a hit someday son!
by theghostofjasonellison on Sep 9, 2010 12:54 PM PDT reply actions
The better question is
Why is jose guillen still starting after all he’s been is a liability on both sides of the ball and the bench is loaded with much better options?
Oh that’s right we have the worst manager in the majors who values RBI’s and dingerz on a baseball card over blatant open your eyes common sense.
/puts in velez as a defensive replacement for schierholtz
"The criticism was so brutal that Sabean was forced to declare, at a press conference, "I am not an idiot." Thus, the pattern of Sabean's relationship to his critics was established."
take off the tinfoil hat, man
Guillen has been perfectly serviceable at the plate. He’s a liability in the field, but he’s hit well in his short tenure with the Giants.
You can make arguments for Nate or Ross to start over Guillen, but I wouldn’t call either one of them “much better options.” (That said, Ross is probably a solid “better option,” sans “much.”)
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
"ZIPS Is Indeed Supose To Science." --GRM
Ross is a *much* better option
I’d say their offense is probably equal, roughly speaking, but how much worse is Guillen on defense? Fifteen, twenty runs? A two-win difference is not small.
Completely agree
2010 Ross: ..262/.317/.394
2010 Guillen: .265/.320/.426
Offensively they are very similar and defensively there is no comparison
Buster Posey>
"Screw it, Redbull time"-Brian Wilson
But BORK doesn't see that - only RBI's
PROVEN VETERAN DRIVES IN RUNS!
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
The padres hit better than the giants with runners in scoring position and in late innings
The padres also steal a lot more bases, and play small ball well. They never give up an AB. They hit into way less double plays in double play situations. Despite the giants overall better hitting, it does not hold for runners in scoring postion or in late innings. The Padres are opportunistic leeches, and the giants mosey on in and take a few give a few. I submit the giants are a better team on paper. But minus the ten game losing streak, the Padres know how to win the close games. Especially, in their own division. Granted Bell gets pitches called strikes out of nowhere. Rockies coming back on Cincy once again today.
Ross had forgotten how to hit since he came to the giants.
Another wasted pickup. We went 20-8 in July without Ross or Guillen. Time for Cain to pitch his best game of his career. Step up big guy. U da man.
so much this
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
And, frankly, that’s 28 too many. It only takes 3 plate appearances to hit .333.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Sep 10, 2010 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions
This made me lol
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
And in other news the umpire in the rockies reds game has stopped calling strikes in an attempt to get the rockies back in it.
"The criticism was so brutal that Sabean was forced to declare, at a press conference, "I am not an idiot." Thus, the pattern of Sabean's relationship to his critics was established."
I remember when they did that game after game for Atlanta in 1993. Umps put them back in every game.
It still happens today for the braves as evidenced by the ridiculous comebacks this season
Same thing for the phillies as evidenced by the LOL “foul” ball that would have won it for the marlins.
"The criticism was so brutal that Sabean was forced to declare, at a press conference, "I am not an idiot." Thus, the pattern of Sabean's relationship to his critics was established."
Nate Pee-Holtz is nothing more than a 10th OFer
wait…….10th?
yup!
I say stick with Ross and Guilen.
Hating jponry since 2006
Wow
That’s some undeserved hatred right there. Nate’s a good 4th OF; excellent defensively, left-handed, not totally lost at the plate. Basically what we thought Andres Torres was with a little less range and a better arm. And like Torres, he could very well be better than that with some consistent PT.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
I missed the beginning, but did anyone hear the entire Ralph/Tom interview with Sabes yesterday?
I was hoping Ralph would push a little on the Guillen thing. I heard some rumor (maybe Baggs) that the FO promised Guillen he would start the majority of the time. I am not quite sure i believe this, and if I do, I am even less sure why one would make such a promise to a player of Guillen’s stature (he had just been DFA’d).
Or why they'd be obligated to keep the promise
It’s not like we have Guillen around after this year (that’s not a challenge, Sabes); who cares if we piss him off?
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
This is now . . .
and entirely new discussion.
I think we can expect to see Scott regularly in center, Guillen mostly in right, and Burrell mostly in left.
Now watch the actual lineup prove me wrong.
He is the World's Most Annoying Rooster.
by gallo del cielo on Sep 12, 2010 12:02 PM PDT reply actions
/fevently hopes Gallo is wrong
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 12, 2010 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
