Madison's Historic Rookie Season
Spammy, I know, but I had fun writing this and the numbers surprised me some.
Madison Bumgarner = better than you
over 1 year ago
xanthan
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Man, I love anything that has a Jeff Tesreau reference in it! Of course, looking back at that list reminds me of some great disappointments in my days of Giants fandom. Jerome of course, and to some degree the Count. But the big one for me was John D’Aquisto. Did you know he was the Sporting News NL Rookie Pitcher of the Year?! And then … nothing.
Nice to note that, though Marichal didn’t quite qualify for the list (being called up a little later in year he had only 81 IP), if he had he would have fallen below Madison as well.
I wonder if we’re going to be in another Lincecum for Rios quandary with Bumgarner this winter. Once again we’ll be struggling to plug holes and upgrade the offense. Once again, the FA market won’t help much. And once again we have only so many chips with which to deal. I sure hope not. Bumgarner is way way better than me.
Also, while the Giants have over the years been involved in a few really horrible trades, my vote for the most lopsided trade in baseball history would be the deal that brought us Christ Mathewson from the Reds for Amos Rusie, who proceeded to pitch in exactly 3 more games in his career before hanging it up.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Great bit about Marichal, I wanted to make mention that he just barely missed the cutoff for rookies by pitching 81 IP in his 1st pro season.
Interesting note about D’Acquisto, his wiki page states that after his rookie campaign he had an elbow surgery and missed most of the following year.
Also, this:
After his retirement, D’Acquisto became an investment banker, but had his license revoked and was sentenced to 63 months prison over charges of investment fraud.1 Later it was found out that John D’Acquisto was used by others and set up. All the funds related to D’Acquisto’s purported fraud case were found in the hands of V. David Siniscalchi, Peter Vercoven, and Dr. Herbert Geiselman, all of whom are now serving time in prison for fraud.2
Ask me about my blog.
Wow that sucks! Did it say how much of the 63 months he actually served?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Trading Madbum would be foolish
I’d like to keep the rotation intact, but if they’re going to trade any of the non-Zitonian starters, I’d hope it would be Sanchez.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Well, I’d probably go for the one that gets the bigger return. At this point, we should be playing to win right now.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
But the biggest factor in winning right now is the dominant starting pitching, no?
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 28, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I’m thinking of it as more a short term v long term reward. If you think of a guys trade value as the cumulative value you expect out of him, Bumgarner’s going to have 5 years of relatively cheap, cost controlled performance packaged in that trade value, whereas our other assets value might be all about what they provide in the next couple years. I think we should be trying to win over the next couple years, so we should keep anyone who’s value is in their short term performance, but we might be able to swap Bumgarner’s future value for value right now. Not that I’m itching to trade Bumgarner, but if the right deal comes along for a position player, I’m looking to make that deal. I also think having 5 quality starters is a bit of a waste, at least when they’re healthy. You can easily skip the 5th starters spot a few times during the course of the season, plus you don’t go 5 deep in the playoffs, so I feel you’re getting less value out of a quality guy there than you could be getting elsewhere. On the other hand, pitchers get hurt, so depth is nice….
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
As for instance, Arizona is seemingly determined to shake up their roster. They decide that Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, and/or Justin Upton can be moved in the right deal. The Giants come calling, and the Snakes say we can work something out where you get two of these guys, but its gonna cost you Bumgarner, Romo, Runzler and maybe a prospect. Do you stand firm and say, I don’t want to break up my pitching or do you start exploring the potential matchups?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
For Stephen Drew and Justin Upton you give up Bumgarner, Romo, Runzler, and a C+ prospect.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
I don't think the 5th starter is a waste
Keep in mind that a lot of the team’s success this year coincided with MadBum replacing Wellemeyer/Joey in rotation
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Right, I’m not saying you can’t get value from it, just that the potential to skip starts and the 4 man playoff rotation causes you to get less value from it. Basically, let’s say a team can skip the 5th starter 4 times. So now, instead of it being Bumgarner v replacement player for 36 starts, it’s Bumgarner v replacement player for 32 starts and Bumgarner v the average of our staff for 4. So you’re not getting the full value over replacement you nromally would. Plus then in the playoffs someone becomes a reliever, and we all know relievers are less valuable than starters.
And because I like Joey, I want to pin the blame on Wellemeyer and point out that he started 11 games and Joey only 1, and Joey did fine in that one start. Wellemeyer, on the other hand, sucks.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
People always say you can skip the #5 starter, but it doesn't seem to happen
Two things come to mind:
- To ideally skip the #5 starter, you have to have a day off land on his scheduled start
- Teams seem to like having the rotation get an extra days rest that comes with occasional off days
I contend that each starter is pretty much equally important.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
It doesn’t have to fall on the 5th starters off day. I’m not necessarily sure why that’s more “ideal”, necessarily. And sure, teams might worry about giving their guys too much work in a season, but the point is it’s still an opportunity, and teams can take advantage of it to the degree that they feel comfortable with – and each time they feel comfortable doing it is one more time you’re chipping away at the value of the 5th starter. Heck, just look at the Giants this season – Lincecum, Cain and Zito all have 32 starts, Sanchez 31, everyone else 29. It’s not that hard to skip 4 starts in a season.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Ummm
I your numbers miean they’ve just two starts. Since they’re on Sanchez’ turn, he’ll get start #32 tonight. The 5th spot will get start #30 tomorrow.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Yeah, and the Giants haven’t been trying to skip the 5th starter.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I disagree
If you really wanted to skip the #5 guy as much as possible, you could do it quite a bit. Let’s look at a random week in June (1st-5th):
1st: Zito starts
2nd: Cain starts
3rd: Off
4th: Sanchez starts on 1 extra day of rest
5th: Lincecum starts on regular rest
You’ve skipped the 5th starter despite the off day falling on Sanchez’ turn. You can do that for every off day except when you have two in the span of five days, though you probably wouldn’t do it that often, and could probably end up skipping 5-10 5th starter starts per year. That would increase the toll on your other pitchers (mostly your ace), which is why teams don’t do it that much even when they have a bad #5, but it’s possible. And the ideal position for an off day when you’re going to skip a start by your #5 is the day after your #1 goes; then your entire rotation except the ace gets an extra day of rest (Timmy, off day, Zito on 1 extra day, then Cain on 1 extra day, then Sanchez on 1 extra day, then Timmy on regular rest).
And the starters aren’t of equal importance; even if you’re trying to have a better starter in every spot in the rotation compared to league average, you can find a better-than-league-average #5 SP for a few million dollars; I’d sign a few upside guys to minor league deals or low-money ML deals and rotate them until one sticks. Having a #5 SP that’s the same as a #3 SP gives you a significant advantage, but no more than upgrading from a league-average RF to an above-average RF; the only difference is it’s easier to find a mediocre pitcher because any SP can be a #5, but other positions are more specific and thus harder to find a replacement for since there are fewer candidates.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Keep in mind that a lot of the team’s success this year coincided with MadBum replacing Wellemeyer/Joey in rotation
Heh, so true.
Wellemeyer: -.5 WAR
Bumgarner: 2.1 WAR
by BustaTheRippa on Sep 28, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Question: How does ERA+ do when comparing such different run environments?
I imagine a 133 ERA+ is easier to achieve in a era when the median/mean ERA is higher.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
It’s compared against league average (with a ballpark adjustment, too) so it should remain consistent.
For example, the average ERA in 1910 was 3.02 (ERA+ 101). The average ERA in 2010 is 4.05 (ERA+ 101).
ERA+ isn’t a perfect statistic (it can be seen as a more of a defensive stat since it’s based on the flawed ERA) by any means, but it’s easy to search with BB-Ref’s Play Index Tool and it’s nice for historic comparisons since it’s based on league average and ballpark.
Ask me about my blog.
Can you search the best ERA+ vs Average ERA for each season? I have feeling that as the Ave ERA goes up you will see higher ERA+’s. I’m gonna try but probably won’t succeed.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Sep 28, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
You won’t see ERA+’s go up as average ERA goes up…..
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I’m being silly. I just have to prove it to myself.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Sep 28, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions
You might if you’re looking at Pedro’s or Maddux’s page.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
You won’t see the average ERA+ go up, obviously, since it’s by definition 100. But that doesn’t mean the extremes won’t change.
Here are the 15 best season by ERA+ since the end of the deadball era:
Pedro Martinez, 2000
Greg Maddux, 1994
Greg Maddux, 1995
Bob Gibson, 1968
Pedro Martinez, 1999
Dwight Gooden, 1985
Roger Clemens, 2005
Roger Clemens, 1997
Lefty Grove, 1931
Pedro Martinez, 1997
Kevin Brown, 1996
Roger Clemens, 1990
Pedro Martinez, 2003
Ron Guidry, 1978
Zack Greinke, 2009
10 of the 15 best pitching seasons of the past 90 years came in the past 17 years (that is, after the 1993 jump in offensive production). Something to think about.
Clearly the generation I grew up with is the best ever! Best hitters AND best pitchers. So screw all the old sportswriters who get all nostalgic about their heroes. ;)
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Though
8 of these 10 seasons seasons came from 3 pitchers, so maybe Clemens, Martinez, and Maddux are just the best pitchers of all times.
Ooh
Another idea.
K rates have been pretty much going up for 70 years now. The same is true for BB rates. This means fewer balls in play, which means that defense isn’t as important now as it was 70 year ago – in other words, more and more PA’s are under the complete control of the pitcher (and hitter). Since elite pitchers are always better than their defense (and, similarly, awful pitchers are always worse than their defense), more control means a higher ERA compared to average (and for terrible pitchers, a lower ERA compare to average).
This is what I’m going with.
My thinking was that if the league ave ERA is higher = higher potenial ERA+.
But I also now think that alot of a better ERA+ now vs then is also a thinner talent pool too.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Sep 28, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I haven’t looked at the numbers but this should be true. As the league average ERA gets higher it leaves more room right of zero and left of the average for pitchers to have better than average performances.
To be completely honest, I haven’t even looked at the ERA+ calculation yet just read this post… so DON’T STONE ME!! ;o)
Not necessarily so. Of course the average ERA+ will remain the same, but do they normalize for the standard deviation?
I was just talking about the average, I kind of misread his statement. As for the range, I do not know how the standard deviation has changed over the years.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Or how the distribution curve in general has changed.
by Missing Barry on Sep 28, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
The most incredible thing to me is that MadBum’s been pitching like a rock-solid veteran in the heat of a September pennant race – all while being only between 30 and 58 days removed from his 21st birthday. That’s just not something that’s supposed to happen when you look back on the history of baseball. To put it into perspective, had MadBum chosen to go to college instead of signing with the Giants then he would just now be starting to go to class for his Junior year!
The 2nd most impressive thing, IMO, is that MadBum went from a 1.5 pitch arsenal flamethrower to a complete pitcher with a full 4 pitch arsenal in the span of less than 12 months on the calendar. That is also almost unheard of for a 20 year old. Watching MadBum now it’s amazing to me that he not only has the great command and control, but that he already has mastered the art of changing speeds and changing planes with all of his pitches. It takes most ptchers (especially guys with plus fastballs) years and years in the pros to learn this – if they ever learn it at all.
As much as it was agonizing to experience the extreme drop in velocity that hit MadBum in the middle of the 2009 season, and lasted through to his first few starts in Fresno this year, it turned out to be a blessing in disguise because it forced him to learn how to rely on his other pitches and how to be a “pitcher” instead of just a “hurler”. Now that his fastball velocity is heading back into the mid-90s, I see his future as being very bright – he could easily be the Giants’ 2nd best pitcher (behind Timmeh) by 2013. And, for once, BS handled his service time wisely, so we control MadBum throught the end of the 2016 season and he won’t be arb-eligible until the end of the 2013 season (he won’t be Super 2).
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
of course, the Super 2 will probably disappear in the next CBA
Some say that some cannot say because the Stig can make some not say what they want to say and all i want to say is i don't know what the hell i'm trying to say.
I don’t see what they can do to fix it. As long as there are hard deadlines (or at least predictable ones), teams will play the service time game. The only question is how long they’ll have to hold out their prospects.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Also
I don’t know if the MLBPA really has a huge problem with it. Teams holding out prospects does delay arbitration, but it also means that the team has to pay another player to fill in until mid-June (often, as with Molina, giving him a guaranteed contract).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
from what I’ve read, the MLBPA does have a problem with it. The service time game causes players who should be MLB to be in AAA for a couple of months longer than they should, not accruing service time, and in many cases delaying free agency. The MLBPA cares a lot more about the Evan Longoria’s and Matt Weiter’s of the world than do about the Willy Aybar’s and whoever the hell was catching in Baltimore. Can’t remember.
Some say that some cannot say because the Stig can make some not say what they want to say and all i want to say is i don't know what the hell i'm trying to say.
Lot of great names on that list
also there are some Hennessey’s and Jerome Williamses…
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
Still in despair.
"Use the stencil! Do it!"
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
SPAM
Honestly, I think you should link all of your stuff as a fanshot, I don’t always know when you’ve got something new up and this would be nice. Don’t know how everyone else feels though.
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
Just thinking out loud here, but how does this list look with component-based runs allowed rather than ERA?
Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.
I’m wondering when we get to see Bumgarner unleash the Mathewson screwball.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
Yeah, but who doesn’t love a fine as…oh, you mean Madison. Yeah, love that bum too.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Sep 29, 2010 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
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