Matt Cain's pitch Selection by Count - Fangraphs

by Aadik on Sep 27, 2010 2:27 PM PDT

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-cains-pitch-selection-by-count/

See above - some interesting thoughts / notes,

- Cain almost never throws a LHH a slider, unless you have 2 strikes on you. If you're a lefty early on in an AB, you can think of Cain as a 3-pitch pitcher, which almost certainly makes the guesswork a little easier. Fascinatingly for me, the more strikes he gets on you, the more like he is to add to the repertoire - making a hitter's job even harder.

- As we would expect, the fastball % goes up with the no of balls in the count - its still the pitch he seems to have the most confidence in throwing for a strike

- If you have a 3-1 count, you can bet your life savings on Cain not throwing you a curveball. That's not necessary surprising, but Cain is willing to use it on a 3-0 count at a reasonable frequency (8%) - but not at 3-1.

All and all, its a really interesting picture of a very smart pitcher.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Fanshot.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Sep 27, 2010 2:54 PM PDT reply actions

Thanks for your contribution.

Adopted papa of Rafael Rodriguez and fond rememberer of our 2008 opening day shortstop.

by BrianBokake on Sep 28, 2010 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions

It was, in fact, more useful than the one you gave me.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Oct 1, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I just think you’re being rude. Why don’t you let the mods worry about what should be a fanshot? That way, you’ll have more time to think of other useful comments…

Adopted papa of Rafael Rodriguez and fond rememberer of our 2008 opening day shortstop.

by BrianBokake on Oct 2, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions

It is a suggestion to the poster- if that amount of “interesting thoughts/notes” can be condensed into the limit given by a fanshot, it probably should, and in this case, it can be.

So I gave a recommendation to the poster, and you responded by making fun of me.

Thus, the response:

It was, in fact, more useful than the one you gave me.

But if you feel like continuing to call my comments useless, by all means, go ahead.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Oct 2, 2010 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I just didn’t want a poster who posted something of interest to me to feel bullied but I fully appreciate the fact that that’s not what you were trying to do.
Buy you a beer at some future MCC meetup?

Adopted papa of Rafael Rodriguez and fond rememberer of our 2008 opening day shortstop.

by BrianBokake on Oct 3, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Giants won the West!

Yaaaayy

I should have made my comment longer so that makes sense that you read it that way because it could have been worded way better.

I’ll buy you a beer!

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Oct 3, 2010 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Also, just for the hell of it.

think of other useful comments…

This is my third comment after the one you made fun of for being useless:

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/10/1/1725171/exploiting-market-inefficiencies-or-brian-sabean-possible-non-idiot#48189358

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Oct 2, 2010 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions

- Cain almost never throws a LHH a slider, unless you have 2 strikes on you. If you’re a lefty early on in an AB, you can think of Cain as a 3-pitch pitcher, which almost certainly makes the guesswork a little easier. Fascinatingly for me, the more strikes he gets on you, the more like he is to add to the repertoire – making a hitter’s job even harder.

Isn’t that how most pitchers pitch? The more strikes on a batter, the more likely he is to see an offspeed pitch (assuming there are fewer than 3 balls).

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 27, 2010 4:17 PM PDT reply actions

Could very well be

Its just interesting to me to see this level of breakdown and detail. But you’d expect it to be higher on pitch 1 than with a 2 strike count no?

Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Sep 27, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Keep in mind the slider is one of the biggest platoon split pitches – it’s extremely effective in general against same handed batters but much, much less so against opposite handed batters. Given that Cain’s slider isn’t one of the best in the game, it makes a lot of sense to only throw it on a rare occasion (as a strikeout pitch) to lefties – especially in a count where you know you want to throw it out of the zone.

by Missing Barry on Sep 27, 2010 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions

newbie question

How much of the pitch selection is decided by the pitcher? Does the catcher play a role in calling pitches? Do I sound like a complete idiot yet?

by iGotFiveOnIt on Sep 27, 2010 5:02 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

I would assume that they each agree prior to a game generally what they want to do, and adjust between innings based on the effectiveness of the given pitch. So the catcher calls the pitch, but he should know what the pitcher would want in the first place.

The #1 greatest threat to America: BEARS

by norcalnick on Sep 27, 2010 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Usually, a catcher calls the pitches, but the pitcher can always ask for a new pitch by shaking the catcher off. After his last start in Colorado, Cain reported (I heard this at least) that he never shook Buster off the whole game. So when things are going well both are on the same page.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Sep 28, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions

this was a fun article,

Did anyone read the Carson Cistulli article from earlier today?

Mark DeRosa, still existing.

by oldjacket on Sep 27, 2010 6:55 PM PDT reply actions

I love that there is not just one but TWO Matt Cain article on Fangraphs today!! And not one mentions his xFIP!!!!

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Sep 27, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions

I’ve always liked Carson. I also stopped reading Fangraphs in general, though – they took on too many writers and produce too much material, especially since it’s not of the same quality as it used to be…..

by Missing Barry on Sep 27, 2010 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions

I just skip the Jack Moore articles. That works.

Mark DeRosa, still existing.

by oldjacket on Sep 27, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions

LOL

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Sep 28, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions