Jose Guillen: A 2-hole hitter with Molina speed.
I wanted to know why a guy who was hitting .300 for the team seemed to be so useless in producing runs. So on Sunday afternoon, after the Giants were done pummeling Mat Latos, I systematically looked at all of Guillen's plate appearances as a Giant. He has 5 extra-base hits, 4 doubles (one of which he was thrown out trying to stretch to 3 bases) and a homer. All of them have come with no runners on base. Guillen actually is hitting all right with 2 runners on base: 11 times at bat, 3 singles and a sac fly, 5 RBI (of his 6 total, the other one is driving in himself on the home run). However, he only has one of those singles in the 6 times he has come up with two on and two out, when he also has 3 K's. With one runner on base, though, Guillen epitomizes a rally-killer. He has no RBI in those situations In 18 plate appearances with 1 runner on and less than 2 out, Guillen has exactly one single, but has hit into 4 double plays and struck out 5 times. With a runner on and two out, he fares better, with 4 singles in 7 attempts, but only one drove in the runner.
He has the most success with nobody on base. The home run, 4 doubles, 10 singles, 3 walks and 2 HBP's in 50 appearances. That's a .400 OBP. Unfortunately, as everyone can see, he is highly unlikely to actually make it in to score, being only slightly faster than Bengie Molina running through Jello. In the 19 times he's been on the bases with no outs (he drove himself in once on the homer), he has only scored 3 runs. That's a .157 "scoring average," folks. Somebody has probably already thought of that stat and given it a different name with a weird acronym, but I'm too lazy to look it up so we'll just call it "scoring average."
By contrast, Buster Posey and Pat Burrell, neither of whom will compete with Usain Bolt anytime soon, both have "scoring averages" north of .350. Andres Torres' is above .475 (Get Well Soon!) That has a lot to do with the fact that they hit in front of better hitters than Guillen, but if there's anything we learned from the Bengie Molina era, it's that having an obstacle on the basepaths high in the order is a bad idea. It's actually good for Guillen to hit in front of Uribe, which he usually does, since he is one of the more likely Giants to hit a home run, rendering Guillen's legs moot. Having him hit in front of Burrell, a new experiment, might have a similar effect but add another chance to get him in. With Buster hitting cleanup and Guillen hitting 5th, he basically becomes a 2nd 2-hole hitter, which, interestingly enough, is what he has spent much of his career doing. Unfortunately, Buster is on base enough that Guillen might just stop hitting if he stays in that spot, since something about runners on base clearly psyches him out.
So, what I have now confirmed, which I was already pretty sure I knew, about Jose Guillen is that he is not very good at "situational hitting" as we like to call it. Until he flips his splits and hits better with runners on than without them, or Uribe gets out of his slump, or both, Guillen will continue to be "productive" without actually helping the Giants win any ballgames.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
32 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Hooray microsplits!
But yes, Guillen sucks, and I wish his only role was pinch hitting RH bat with some pop.
The whole point of this is that he doesn’t “have some pop”
Schierholtz has a higher slugging percentage.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Sep 14, 2010 11:28 PM PDT reply actions
Have you ever heard of "small sample size" errors?
by BornRaisedAGiant on Sep 15, 2010 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions
At this point in his career, is it really a “sample size error?” He’s slugging .418 for the season, after slugging .367 last year. The three years before that were .438, .460, .398. In fact he’s a career .440 slugger, which for a corner OF without much defensive ability, isn’t exactly eye-popping.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Yes I have, which is why I waited a month of Guillen as a Giant to post this.
Besides, we have 17 games left. The pennant race is a small sample size, we don’t have time for the law of averages to help out Guillen’s numbers. If anything, his batting average should go down, rendering him even worse.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Sep 15, 2010 12:08 AM PDT reply actions
The thing is, the way the “law of averages works” is that we expect him to perform at his “true talent level” going forward (so over those last 17 games). It might not be enough to make his overall line including the past reflect his true talent level, but that’s not really the relevant piece of information….
by Missing Barry on Sep 15, 2010 6:46 AM PDT up reply actions
However, since he’s getting older I would expect that this might actually be a decline due to age rather than a deviation from his average performance.
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Sep 15, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Pardon my skepticism, but don’t exactly buy into the notion that losing a below average hitter (Guillen’s posted 92, 82, 98 wRC+ the last 3 seasons) caused the Giants offense to die….
by Missing Barry on Sep 15, 2010 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Sar-chasm gif appears in 3…2…1…
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Ha, my bad. I did find it strange to see that comment. It was early!
by Missing Barry on Sep 15, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I realize this is sarcasm
But this always does seem to happen. We give one of our “good” hitters a day off against a good pitcher. Then, when the offense goes out and sucks against someone like Kershaw, people like to point to it as proof that the “good” hitter is crucial to the team’s offense.
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Sep 15, 2010 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions
aside from the obvious stuff about microsplits and sample size
The subject line assertion that Guillen is a “2-hole hitter” is kind of baffling. Dude has a .321 career OBP. That’s not exactly a guy I want at the top of my lineup.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. 0.00 ERA in Salem-Keizer...as a 24-year old.
It’s a guy I want nowhere near my lineup.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Sep 15, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
He is a guy I want in the Dodger lineup.
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
This
Wreck’d
Would also like to see him replace Eckstein* in the Padres lineup after Eckstein is mauled by a pack of wolves that escaped from the SD Zoo.
*Save your meme’s I know Guillen isn’t a middle IF.
"There's not many things to do in a trailer park." - A. Huff
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Sep 15, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I like the idea of Guillen playing second base for the Padres. That would be pretty damn funny.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Sep 15, 2010 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
god I hate that midget. I hate his stupid batting stance, I hate the way he lollipops throws from second base (second base!!!) to first base, and I really, really, really, really, really hate him for hitting a game winning home run off Affeldt. Stupid midget.
(Eckstein rant over. Please resume regular programming)
I called him a 2-hole hitter because his slugging percentage has been so low as a Giant, and I remember him hitting there earlier in his career. However, it’s obvious that he can’t be a 2-hole hitter when he is as slow as he is now.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Sep 15, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
b-r has him hitting second in the starting lineup 84 times in his career. His most common lineup spots have been 4th (384 starts) and 5th (342 starts).
As a hitter, speed is pretty much the least of his problems.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. 0.00 ERA in Salem-Keizer...as a 24-year old.
How is his lack of speed not a problem? He hits plenty of ground balls and doesn’t hit for much power, which means speed is important.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Sep 16, 2010 6:06 PM PDT reply actions
Assuming you're replying to jcb
He didn’t say his lack of speed wasn’t a problem. He said it wasn’t the biggest one. Being fast or slow doesn’t matter if a player doesn’t get on base a lot to begin with.
SUCK IT, GUILLEN HATERS
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
"ZIPS Is Indeed Supose To Science." --GRM
by delorean on Sep 17, 2010 12:54 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
He still took an extra BB to get around to score in the 4th, and both his singles again came with no runners on base.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Sep 17, 2010 12:03 PM PDT reply actions
jose guillen!
I guess he can’t hit with runners on base, huh?

by 







![From SFist: Buster Posey's Summer Vacation
Note the pile of dead Marlins.
At the Q Restaurant in the Richmond:
George [the artist] tells SFist: "I am currently at work with the fine folks at Q Restaurant and Wine Bar, who have allowed me over the past few months to make use of their largest wall for themed murals. This month, with our beloved Buster Posey sent. . .to the DL. . .I felt it appropriate to send him some well wishes from all his fans at the eatery."](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/202096/busterart_2_small.jpg)



















