Aging Players - Bargains for 2011?
Patrick Sullivan over at The Baseball Analysts has an interesting article discussing both generalities and particulars.
almost 2 years ago
owlcroft
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I appreciate the info, but do we really need more aging players on the Giatns? I’d rather give some cheap, fast, younger guys a shot. I guess it’s a mute point anyway – with BS as our GM we’ll always have way more aging vets than we need.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
What cheap, fast young guys?
Belt, and….?
With a large chunk of the offense being old, cheap, and free agents, this is going to be a very interesting offseason. Good luck replacing Huff, Burrell, Uribe and even Renteria’s collective production for the 16M or so we’re paying them. Hint: it’s probably not coming from Nate Schierholtz and Brandon Crawford (or Rowand and Derosa, for that matter).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I get your point, but I don’t think the article is suggesting going for vets instead of young players when the young player is better. Instead, I think the article is suggesting that older players may represent a bargain because teams fear their age. So they might be available on short-term, low-cost deals. If a team has a hole they can fill, this is a good place to look. It’s a riskier market, and I do fear Sabean would overspend yet again, but it’s a good market to tap.
I feel prickishly demanding!
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by giantsfansince1981 on Aug 26, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I get the point too, but I don’t see the proof in the list of available guys.
1. The list they post conssts of 18 players. Of those 18 we can throw out 5 right off the top (ManRam, Thome, Guerrero, Ortiz, and Matsui), because even if you can get them cheaply (and I would argue that you would only be able to get Matsui and Thome on the cheap), they’re all DHs at this point in their careers, so the Giants can’t use them.
2. Of the remaining 13 names, I only see 4 that we might be able to sign to a deal that would be cheap and short-term enough to make it worth the risk (I would define that as less than $5M for 1 year). Those 4 would be Burrell, Johnny Damon, Alex Gonzalez, and Mark Ellis. Of those 4, Ellis is a no-go, because we’re not paying for another starting 2B/utility IF when we’re already paying Freddy S. and DeRosa so much money and Juan Uribe is a better option. Johnny Damon is also a no-go, because he’s no upgrade over what we already have in the OF (and he’s not going to leave the AL anyway). That leaves Burrell, who we already know about, and Alex Gonzalez
Let’s look at Gonzalez. He’s having a Aubrey Huff-like renaissance at SS this year. His slash line is .275/.342/.464/.806. He’s playing above-average D, and he’s already achieved a 4.1 WAR this season (likely on his way to something in the 4.6-5.0 range). He will almost certainly be highly sought-after this offseason by many teams, and surely land at least a 2 year deal in the $16M-$20M range, at minimum – that’s not what I call cheap. So that leaves us only Pat Burrell from the list, not exactly a revelation for the Giants.
3. The Giants got lucky with Huff and Uribe, but let’s not let that go to our heads. Those results have certainly not been the norm throughout the league among players that were signed to contracts in their mid-30s. On the Giants, specifically, we struck out with the singings of Renteria, Molina, DeRosa, Freddy S., Dave Roberts, Aurilia, and Vizquel.
I would rather see Sabean target younger, fresher, more athletic players that are arb-eligible, or unwanted by their current teams, and may be available via trade or free agency (if they’re non-tendered by their teams). Because their team doesn’t want to risk the raise in salary that they may get in arbitration or they just don’t think they fit into their long-term plans, BS could get something of value to the Giants for little in return.
Sabean should either swoop in and work out a trade right before the Dec. 1st arb tender deadline, or wait to see if they’re non-tendered, then swoop in and sign them to a FA contract. This isn’t an exhaustive list, but guys that I would put in this category are Cody Ross, J.J. Hardy, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, Dan Uggla, David DeJesus, Scott Hairston, and Matt Diaz. IMO, this strategy is much more likely to make the Giants a better team in 2011 than signing any of the available guys off the geezer FA list that we’ve been discussing.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The problem with this list is that it focuses on still-productive stars, guys who will still be quite expensive in salary if not years.
The real value on the older FA market is in the players who can be had for next to nothing.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I myself advocate nothing.
I want to clarify that. But, in the context of what the Giants have, and their GM’s tendencies, i thought the article interesting.
I think giantsfansince1981 has it just about right. Such players are an undervalued resource, and if selected intelligently (I know, I know) can be useful.
In passing, I note that I am surprised by the number of McCovens who just write DeRosa off as meaningless. Granted, we do need to see if this surgery fixed the prior ones, but there’s no a priori reason to think not, in which case DeRosa can be an important part of the 2011 team. Till dragged down by his recent injury-plagued seasons, he was a pretty solid bat and, I believe, an adequate, average middle infielder; not what one would want at SS, but good enough to play there maybe a day a week, and help at 2B and 3B—a sort of Juan Uribe but with his value in different stats.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
DeRosa’s a 2B/3B on a team with at least one similar or superior option at both positions. Even if he returns successfully, he’s rather redundant.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Well, they’re undervalued until we start the bidding anyway!
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