minor lines, 8/16/10
by steve S on Aug 16, 2010 10:25 PM PDT
in They Might Be Giants
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PrintHighlight from the Giants' farm: Tommy Joseph doubled twice among three hits.
AAA: Fresno lost to Iowa 5-3
Fresno: C Steve Holm: 2 for 4
Iowa: RF Brad Snyder: 2 for 5, HR, 2B, 2 SO
Fresno: SP Henry Sosa: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K--3 HR
Iowa: SP Jeff Samardzija: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
With two of the Grizzlies' six hits, Holm had their only multi-hit line. Hitting .240/.352/.385 in 192 AB this year, might he be the Giants' third-string catcher in September, or might that distinction fall to his Fresno teammate Jackson Williams? Snyder, the former top 100 prospect for the Indians who is now in the Cubs organization and who is the older brother of former Giants' farmhand Ben Snyder, had his 20th HR and 29th double.
Sosa's recent proclivity to the gopher ball got him once again. He has yielded 12 HR in 29.0 IP over his last six appearances (five starts). In eight appearances since the all-star break, his ERA is nearly 6.00. He was outpitched by the Cubs' Samardzija, who has been on a roll recently, with an ERA of 2.93 over his last seven starts.
AA: Richmond had its final scheduled off-day this year
(They currently have a 59-60 W-L record.)
A+: San Jose had its final scheduled off-day this year
(After winning the first half title, their W-L record is 20-29 in the second half.)
A-: Augusta defeated Rome 8-7
(after leading 2-1 through six innings)
Augusta: DH Tommy Joseph: 3 for 5, 2 2B
Augusta: C Hector Sanchez: 2 for 4, 2B, BB
Augusta: SP Brian Irving: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Augusta: RP Jose Casilla: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER
Joseph and Sanchez combined for five of the GreenJackets' thirteen hits as they each reached base three times. They raised their respective AVGs to .244 and .284.
Irving followed up his best start of the year (0 ER in 7.0 IP) with another very good effort until he was tagged for three runs in his final inning. His ERA crept upwards to 4.38. Casilla allowed just his second earned run in the past three months.
ssA: Salem-Keizer lost to Spokane 12-3
Salem-Keizer: LF Ryan Scoma: 2 for 4, HR, SO
Salem-Keizer: SP Edwin Escobar: 3.0+ IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K--2 HR
Scoma, the only Volcano to reach base safely twice as he had his fourth straight-multi-hit game, had his 3rd HR. He entered the evening hitting .326/.387/.435 through 193 AB.
Anticipating this start this morning, I thought Escobar may be the top prospect on the Volcanoes roster. But then he allowed a season-high 8 ER tonight, ballooning his ERA by more than a full run to 5.26. He did not retire any of the seven batters he faced in the 4th inning.
R: Giants defeated AthleticXXXXs 3-2
Scottsdale: RF Rafael Rodriguez: 2 for 4, CS
Scottsdale: CF Chuckie Jones: 1 for 2, 2B, 2 BB, SB
Scottsdale: SP Kendry Flores: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K--1 HR, 1 HB
Scottsdale: RP Heath Hembree: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 3 K
Raf-Rod had two of the rookie Giants' seven hits, raising his AVG to .280. Jones reached base three times. It was also his first game without a strikeout in ten days.
Making his eight starth among ten appearances, Flores had his longest appearance of the year. With just 1 ER, he got his ERA below 4.00. Striking out three of five batters, Hembree managed to raise his K/IP above 2.00 (15 K in 7.0 IP). He has received his first pro save.
DSL: Giants defeated Yankees1 15-1 (eight innings--completed early)
Dominican: 2B Cesar Soto: 3 for 5, 2B, SO
Dominican: SP Luis Angeles: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K--1 HB
Soto (19.4 y.o.) had three hits, including just his third XBH in 155 AB, to raise his AVG to .226. Angeles (20.8 y.o.) has allowed 1 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. He has a sub-2.00 ERA.
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Is Chuckie real yet?
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
I wish he would strike out a lot less
But I’m really pulling for the guy.
What’s the plan for him, Windster, and WIlloughby (or other high performers in the AZL)?
Proud of both my adopted son, Baggs, and my ward, Ryan LOLlis.
Anybody that can figure out that is a certified genius. The Giants appear to have no long-term plans for more than a couple of minor leaguers in any given year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I mean
What usually happens after the AZL? SK or SJ?
Proud of both my adopted son, Baggs, and my ward, Ryan LOLlis.
Depends on the performance
AZL is always a tough league to judge on performance. Usually, the decisions for where they would be next won’t happen until the spring, after judging where the players stand after an offseason.
However, few go straight to SJ, maybe one or two a year, and almost always it’s the top guys. A number of them will fight for a job to start the year in Augusta, while many will stay in extended spring training and then go to S-K. Some can play their way out of Ext. ST, but not many do.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Check out the new look of SFDugout.com•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 17, 2010 2:13 AM PDT up reply actions
As for instance, this is Windster’s 2nd appearance in the AZL following, I think, three seasons in the DSL. So there’s definitely no road map.
That said, Willoughby being older I can see being in the mix for the Sally next year. Jones I wouldn’t be surprised to see in the NWL which is still pretty advanced for an 18 year old. If he were to show up in the Sally it would definitely mean he impressed the organization in IL and ST and tightened up the swing somewhat. His power potential and athleticism are certainly interesting.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Putting aside the horrid K spell he’s gone through, he has a solid walk rate which hopefully will mean good things for his future as he learns not to swing for the fences all the time.
RafRod, on the other hand, seems to have lost his plate discipline along with some of his luster this year. He’s putting up a 0.26 BB/K ratio, which is worse than Chuckie’s despite Chuckie have vastly more Ks. RafRod’s only BB in 4% of his ABs since going to the AZL, only 5% overall (Jones is at 12%).
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Heath Hembree = Giants closer of the future?
also good to see Raf-Rod get that average up now hopefully we see some of that power
by 49erEmpire on Aug 16, 2010 10:40 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Brian Wilson’s must be hearing footsteps. Hembree has been known to to 99 mph with his FB.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
sss
but for a guy that had control issues, 15 Ks and 0 BBs in 7 IP is not a bad start
by TimLaser and MattyC on Aug 16, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
babip is an insane 8-14, perhaps his fastball is a little too straight?
by TimLaser and MattyC on Aug 16, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure Wilson feels pretty stable. There isn’t a footfall known to man that can echo from Rookie Ball all the way to the major leagues.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
LOL
Yeah, Wilson would have to be really paranoid for something like that. I think that the 2 guys that should really be looking over their shoulders at Hembree are Stoffell and Rafael Cova. Neither have had confidence-inspiring seasons.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Stoffell’s peripheral stats are actually pretty good.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Not good enough. He’s been way too hittable – 46 hits in 45 innings is not dominating stuff. For his age and his pedigree, he should be dominating the Cal League
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That’s a .376 BABIP, which is almost certainly a function of luck, given his K% of 30%. The odds are that his hit rate will almost certainly regress to a more normal .300. His FIP is 3.18.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Is Tyler Graham a prospect, his batting ave and stolen bases really jumped out at me, i know its just 275 AB’s but still was wondering why he hit 6th not 1st or 2cnd for the Grizzlies.
Its not easy being a giants fan
Mostly because he doesn’t have a ton of power or secondary average, but yea, Graham is the Triple-A surprise for the Giants farm system.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Check out the new look of SFDugout.com•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 17, 2010 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions
The knock I’ve heard, second hand, is that he doesn’t hit right handed pitching well. However, when I looked up his stats I come up with:
vs Left .372 94 16 35 10 1 0 10 5 13 12 2 .396 .500 .896
vs Right .341 185 37 63 11 1 2 19 13 35 18 7 .400 .443 .843
Not exactly horrible either way. No power to speak of, only 2 bombs, 2 triples and 29 doubles but still……
Adopted father of Brian Bocock, Brad Boyer, Sharlon Schoop, Shane Jordan, Jeremiah Luster,Trey Webb,David Quinowski, and Jeff Arnold.
"GM Jack Zduriencik is one of the sharper tools in the shed. Elsewhere in that shed, Brian Sabean continues to pound screws into bricks with a garden rake."
Jones reached base three times. It was also his first game without a strikeout in ten days.
Since the AZL only plays 4 out of every 5 days that’s a bit misleading – our guy Chuckie only played 7 games in those 10 days. But your overall point is quite valid.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Oh, what the heck
Post signing-deadline Top 5 prospects:
1.) Brandon Belt: .365/.463/.625 across two levels.
2.) Zack Wheeler: Front-of-the-rotation potential. Lots of K’s and ground balls.
3.) Thomas Neal: Holding his own in Double-A.
4.) Gary Brown: Vroom, hit the heck out of the ball in college.
5.) Tommy Joseph: .287/.326/.512 in the second half; just 18 most of the year.
Top 10
1.) Brandon Belt: .365/.463/.625 across two levels.
2.) Zack Wheeler: Front-of-the-rotation potential. Lots of K’s and ground balls.
3.) Thomas Neal: Holding his own in Double-A.
4.) Gary Brown: Vroom, hit the heck out of the ball in college.
5.) Tommy Joseph: .287/.326/.512 in the second half; just 18 most of the year.
6-10) Chuckie Jones, Parker, RafRod, Peguero, Crawford
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Aug 17, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Good list, but...
You must rid yourself of your RafRod love. It will only lead to heartbreak. If he was really one of our top 10 prospects I’d have to cry myself to sleep.
1.) Brandon Belt: Incredibly polished for < 1 year of pro ball. Does everything well.
2.) Zack Wheeler: no-brainer
3.) Gary Brown: if he can hit .300 and OBP > .350 he’ll be a perennial all-star.
4.) Thomas Neal: Nice overall season. Power drop worrisome, but obviously park-related.
5.) Brandon Crawford: alreay has pro D, just needs to realize that he’s not a power hitter.
6.) Mike Kickham: A lefty that throws mid-90s and has 2 other pitches that are at least average.
7.) Roger Kieschnick: Lost season, but he’s a 4-tool player that just needs some plate discipline.
8.) Jorge Bucardo: Has excelled at every level and gotten better every season – still only 20.
9.) Francisco Peguero: Another 4-tool player, but still very raw. Needs to bunt more.
10.) Heath Hembree: Has the stuff to rocket through the system a la Runzler in 2009.
11.) Jarrett Parker: Must overhaul his swing mechanics, learn plate discipline, and get stronger.
12.) Tommy Joseph: Ks are a huge issue, but the trend is right. Can he stick at C?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Hmmm. RBI? Really? How’s Brett Pill doing?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Domingez is in Augusta Class A and Pill is in Fresno class AAA but both have 80 plus RBI’s if i am correct. and i think i am.
Its not easy being a giants fan
/sarchasm
Pill was the RBI leader in the org last year, and he’s not good. That’s what I mean.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I’ll be more clear: If you are evaluating minor league players based on RBI, you’re doing it wrong.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Dominguez is at .266/.315/.439 and has a 15.6 LD%. That’s not so good. He does have power and apparently, despite the errors, a pretty good glove at 3B. That’s good.
He is also a 23 yo former college player at low A. That’s not so good. He may have a future, but right now he would be lucky to become Pedro Feliz. That would make him rich, but isn’t exactly what the big club is looking for.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
aye didnt notice he was three years older then Joseph, thats why people like Joseph more. well one of the reasons.
Its not easy being a giants fan
BTW where do you get LD% rate, i use the teams home pages for info, they dont have LD% rates? just old school stats.
Its not easy being a giants fan
minorleaguesplits.com
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Another good site is:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Thanks again
Following the youngsters is almost as fun as watching the parent club. it is addictive!
Its not easy being a giants fan
First Stat i noticed on Baseball-refrence is Belt has only hit into 1 GIDP in 37 games in Richmond, lol
Its not easy being a giants fan
Wait until he joins the big club. They’ll cure him of that quickly.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
by rxmeister on Aug 17, 2010 10:43 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Minor league LD% numbers are pretty unreliable, though.
Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.
Well sure, take them with a grain of salt, but it’s unlikely the numbers are so far off not to be helpful.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 18, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I was trying really hard t o figure who you took out other than RafRod and Jones to add Hembree, Kiesnick, Kickham AND Bucardo. Then I realized your list went to 12.
I am probably overrateing RafRod and Jones right now but me likey toolsy outfielders.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Aug 17, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m just not a base 10 kind of guy. LOL.
I do like Chuckie and would put him in the top 15. I’d put him where you had him if he could just get his K-rate down to the bad range of 25%. He still has plenty of time to correct that, but if he doesn’t get it down to a least the mid-20s by the end of next year then I’m afraid it will be a really bad sign.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Thomas Neal
To clarify, his slash at home and away is very informative:
Home: .292/.363/.392/.755
Away: .291/.360/.484/.843
The only difference is the slugging. His ISO power is only .100 at home vs. .193 on the road. Obviously the new park is as harsh on power hitters as Dodd was. That helps to explain a lot of what happened to Kieschnick this year. It’s nice to see that Neal figured it out and just goes for the base hits at home. It also makes me even more in awe of Belt’s .277 ISO at home in the AA!
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Neal does look to be bouncing back, but...
I can’t believe you’re that high on Crawford and Brown. Crawford has a tremendous glove, but his bat is very suspect. Also, there was a good article about Brown on Bay City Ball that references another on Triples Alley and if Brown continues his walk rate he’d have to hit .295 just to have an average, that’s right average OBP for a big leaguer.
Not to mention that in putting on my straw hat and watching Brown’s swing, his lower half is an absolute mess that will be exploited at the next level.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
his lower half is an absolute mess that will be exploited at the next level
I really don’t know why people say this. The only thing I can see that is slightly unusual about him is that he tends to wiggle his back knee while he waits for the pitcher to begin his wind up. That is not an issue that can be exploited.
What is it you see in his lower body that is an “absolute mess” that will cause issues going forward?
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
Power, along with bat speed, is generated in the lower half. One of the best examples of this was BLB. The proper way to hit is to plant and spin, shifting weight from the back foot to the front foot, then centering between the two. The problem is Brown doesn’t plant, but he makes up for that by not spinning. There have been guys who had success without planting like Ichiro, but if the foundation isn’t correct pitchers will exploit that with the fastball, especially the fastball up and the fastball in on the hands because it requires greater bat speed to hit. That toe tap thing he does with his back foot is an issue that will be very hard to correct, because even guys like Ichiro plant the back foot. It’s not all about hitting the ball out of the park either. Brown will have trouble generating enough power to hit the ball in the gaps with his current swing.
I say all that, but it is possible that he could have a Brandon Belt type of conversion, which the Giants may see something that they think is very fixable. If that happens, I still don’t like the pick because he just doesn’t walk and will have to hit very well just to be average. Think Shawon Dunston.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Caveat before someone "corrects" me
Shawon Dunston at the plate, not in the field.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
In all the videos I’m watching on youtube he’s planting and spinning just fine. The walk rate is a concern though.
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
The motion is there to an extent, but it’s pretty obvious that he’s not generating any power from his lower half and if you can see his feet they’re not planted which keeps him from opening up his hips and spinning with enough quickness all of his bat speed comes from his arms. Sorry, I can’t explain it any better, but most scouting reports have raised the same concern to varying degrees.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I see what you’re saying, I just don’t think it’s enough to be concerned about and certainly not “an absolute mess” that will be exploited. Most scouting reports are BS imho.
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
I agree somewhat that most scouting reports are BS, but his lower body is a mess no doubt about it. How correctable it is, is another matter.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
1. I don’t believe it would take much for Brown to hit .295 with his quick hands, strong wrists, advanced ability to make solid contact, and his speed down the 1B-line, so that’s not much of an argument.
2. His miniscule walk rate in the 2010 college season does not mean that he’s never learned to take a walk. In the 2009 Cape Cod Summer League he hit .310 and walked 9% of the time over a 2 month period. That was with wooden bats and against top competition. He also played stellar D and was selected as the starting CF for his division in the All-Star game at the end of the season. He had a similar walk rate during his freshman year in 2008. Clearly he knows how to take a walk if he wants to. When you’re hitting .438, slugging .695, and putting up a wOBA of .503, it’s a logical decision to not take many walks. Critcs rarely note that while he did only have 9 walks in 229 plate appearances, he also only K’d 12 times, so he wasn’t throwing ABs away. The other things that his critics don’t mention is the opposing pitchers. With Brown’s speed and base-stealing acumen, a walk to him was tantamount to a double, so the opposing pitchers were going out of their way not to walk Brown. They would rather groove one down the middle when the count got to 2 or 3 balls than to risk Brown getting a free pass. On average, between hits, walks and HBPs, Brown got on base more than 2 times in every game he played this season. What more do you want?
3. You’re reservations about his lower-body mechanics are based on old info. There was a clip circulating at the time Brown was drafted, but it was from 2009. He did have happy feet in 2009, but if you check out clips from his 2010 ABs, you’ll see that he made changes and was keeping his feet quite in the box. Here are 3 clips from the 2010 season for your perusal – the only issue I have with his mechanics is that he lays his bat head behind his back too much (I’d rather see him move his hands down and back while waiting for the pitch). You’ll also notice from these clips that he wasn’t just going up to the plate and hacking at every pitch, he actually had plate discipline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjtHPURdMB8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecvUIH_IrWo&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OABADFAEZvU&feature=related
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Thanks, those clips do look a lot different than the ones I was watching and he has quieted his feet considerably, but I’m still not sold on his lower half. He really seems to lunge and has a lot of weight on his front foot, but it’s much more correctable than the toe-tapping I saw in the other videos and could be a result of some of the progress he’s made. Also, wow, he’s fast. Really fast, hadn’t seen the video of the triple before.
With regards to taking walks in the Cape Cod, I think that’s better, but I’m still not sold. If you weight his averages over the last three years it’s still glaring how much he depends on getting hit by pitches to help his OBP and how little he walks. Given that both the Cape Cod league and his college career are rather small sample sizes though, it’s hard to say. I won’t say that you’ve changed my mind, but I’m slightly less frustrated by this pick now, still would have rather had several other players though.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Also
Even with all the things you mentioned, hitting .295 in the big league’s is pretty tough. Lots of guys with those same tools have failed to do it. I think those things help, but just arming the ball is going to put a lot of holes in his swing for pitchers to exploit.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t believe it would take much for Brown to hit .295 with his quick hands, strong wrists, advanced ability to make solid contact, and his speed down the 1B-line, so that’s not much of an argument
I think you’re underselling how difficult (or lucky or both, depending on one’s point of view) it is to hit .295. There are a little less than 300 players in baseball history who have career BA at .295 or above, a fairly small percentage of players and even smaller percentage of when you expand the pool from major leaguers to everybody in pro ball.
And if you don’t like career averages, this year you’re talking (currently) about 30 guys in MLB currently hitting .295 or above.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Thank you
It sort of reminds me of a few years back at minor league ball. There was this rash of projecting every minor league player with an above average walk rate to a .400 OBP in the pros with no realization of just how hard that is to achieve.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
Where'd you play
Okay not to answer, I bounced around Asia for a while and spent a season in the states, just curious if we ever played against one another.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, ambiguous writing on my part
I meant the site, Minor League Ball. I’ve never played professionally.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
Speed makes a huge diference
Look at modern-day guys that get down the line comparable to Brown. And remember, these are just career numbers. Obviously, a batter that relies on speed is going to fall off faster than the guy that is slow or just average his entire career. Also, remember that I’m not including dozen of guys that hit better than .290 for their career, using footspeed and guile, prior to the 1930s, because I’m not familiar with all of their games.
Ichiro Suzuki >> .331
Kirby Puckett >> .318
Derek Jeter >> .315
Matty Alou >> .307
Ralph Garr >> .306
Placido Polanco >> .304
Roberto Alomar >> .300
Kenny Lofton >> .299
Juan Pierre >> .298
Jose Vidro >> .298
Carl Crawford >> .295
Mickey Rivers >> .295
Barry Larkin >> .295
Willie McGee >> >> .295
Bip Roberts >> .294
Tim Raines >> .294
Lou Brock >> .293
Luis Castillo >> .291
Brett Butler >> .290
Sure you’ll say that there’s a bunch of HOF-types on the list, but more than half of these guys would be considered complementary players at best.
The other thing to consider is the hitter’s approach at the plate. The biggest reason why the career averages have fallen dramatically for the average player since the mid-1920s is the advent of the home run as a weapon. Players started swinging for the fences because they earned more fame and money if they hit home runs versus just hitting for a decent average. Even in today’s game, though, (as the above list shows) if a player is disciplined, uses his footspeed to his advantage, and doesn’t swing for the fences it’s not that difficult to eke out a .295 average – you just have to remain disciplined. Over a 600 AB season, the difference between a .295 average and a .275 average is only 12 hits. That’s something that a disciplined speedburner can easily manufacture over a 24 week season.
Oh, and by the way, Freddy Sanchez has a career BA of .295, which kind of blunts your point.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Actually the first thing I’m going to say is that there’s a TON of LH hitters on that list (plus Kirby Puckett and Derek Jeter for some reason which I can’t really figure out as neither is probably even a 60 runner). And the second thing I’m going to say is that all of these guys were major league players and starting major leaguers at that. THAT in and of itself is a major achievement. Then, hitting near .300 with any consistency at all is something that a small fraction can do beyond that. Freddy Sanchez’ career BA doesn’t blunt my point at all — if Gary Brown produces anything close to Sanchez’ career for us he’ll have been a pretty great pick.
In fact, that’s a solid way to put it: being Freddy Sanchez means you were pretty frickin’ great. Freddy Sanchez put up a career minor league line of .320/.384/.443 and still was barely given a chance to play in the majors. To suggest that it will be easy for anybody drafted this week (outside of maybe Harper) to become Freddy Sanchez is to dramatically understate how difficult the game is and how high the talent level in the majors is.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Howie Kendrick's a pretty interesting anecdote in this line of conversation
.360 minor league average.
.294 MLB average.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
But Gary Brown isnt’ just “anybody”. The list of college guys that ever put up the average, OBP, and SLG that Brown did last year is very small – certainly just as small as the list of .295 career hitters.
Secondly, there’s a reason that so many of the guys are LHH. They get to 1B faster from the LH batter’s box. You’re right, Brown is a righty, but Brown’s times to 1B rival those of almost every LHH on the list.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The list of college guys that ever put up the average, OBP, and SLG that Brown did last year is very small – certainly just as small as the list of .295 career hitters.
Really, very small? If I run min. of 200 at-bats by players that hit at least .400 in a year of college ball I get 229 separate seasons.
Here’s the top 20 seasons.
Year Team Player AVG AB
2006 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Mike Goetz 0.493 225
2002 Illinois-Chicago Curtis Granderson 0.483 207
2002 Clemson Khalil Greene 0.47 285
2009 Middle Tennessee State Bryce Brentz 0.465 230
2008 Florida State Buster Posey 0.463 257
2004 East Tennessee State Caleb Moore 0.455 202
2007 William and Mary Greg Sexton 0.455 209
2004 Eastern Michigan Brian Bixler 0.453 243
2009 College of Charleston Joey Bergman 0.452 221
2001 Florida State John-ford Griffin 0.45 251
2005 Davidson Jay Heafner 0.448 203
2003 Eastern Kentucky Josh Anderson 0.447 237
2005 College of Charleston Brett Gardner 0.447 273
2002 Marist Anthony Bocchino 0.444 207
2001 UCLA Brian Baron 0.443 237
2002 Maryland John McCurdy 0.443 221
2002 Texas Christian Terry Trofholz 0.441 213
2002 Notre Dame Steve Stanley 0.439 271
2009 West Virginia Dan Dibartolomeo 0.439 205
An interesting list for sure (BUSTER!) I don’t think hitting .400 in college is all your making it out to be. An impressive feat for sure, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee of major league success.
Ask me about my blog.
Bryce Brentz :-(
/hopes the best for Brown anyway
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Very nice
But you failed to meet the critiria plainly stated in my post:
that ever put up the average, OBP, and SLG that Brown did last year is very small
Not to mention the fact that you filtered for anybody that hit for .400, while Brown hit .438 this season. There’s a huge difference just in those 2 numbers.
Please run your filter again using all of the folowing delimiters and let us know the results:
AVG: .438
OBP: .485
SLG: .695
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The OBP seems irrelevant since if you’re hitting .400+, your OBP is going to be high anyways. I’m not sure about SLG, since I’d rather try and weight park factors or something into the mix. I have no idea if college PF’s are even available.
Still, even at hitting .430, I think you’re overselling the feat.
Ask me about my blog.
There’s a huge difference just in those 2 numbers.
Also, I wanted to add that it’s the difference of 8 hits in the same amount of at-bats.
Ask me about my blog.
That seems like a bit of a weak retort, Fla, as so much of Brown’s OBP and SLG are driven by the BA, I’d guess his numbers aren’t really that special relative to Xanthan’s list. Just cherry picking names I recognize at random and checking the Cube:
John-Ford Griffin’s season above was .450/.542/.623,
(this came in the wake of a .403/.476/.623 soph year)
Khalil Green’s was .470/.552/877
Mike Goetz was .493/.579/.689
John McCurdy (Fear the Turtle!) was .443/.496/.828
Sadly, the cube doesn’t have Granderson’s stats, but looking back in time I did find Oddibe McDowell’s classic Arizona State season: .405/.528/.788 (22 HRS!).
On the whole, I’d guess if Xanthan ran a program that pulled the full slash line of everyone of the guys above we’d find that Brown’s OPS isn’t all that extraordinary, and probably tends toward the low side of the .400+ hitters.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not anti-Brown. I’ve heard that there were scouts who were watching Colon (#4 pick) who came away saying Brown was the better prospect. I’m excited to see what he can do. I just think that we should view Brown and all prospects, and all major leaguers for that matter, with an appropriate respect for the incredible difficulty of what they’re trying to do. And in Brown’s case, specifically, that means, yes, that improving his approach and plate discipline must be a key to his development, because assuming that hitting .300 or thereabouts is easily within his grasp is, I think, more wishcasting than forecasting.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
As usual, you say it better than I can. Also, Oddibe McDowell is a great name.
Ask me about my blog.
Oddibe McDowell, now that spring is in the air! One of my favorites.
Just looking back over, I see I screwed up John-Ford Griffin’s year. He hit .450/.542/.797. The .623 SLG was I duplicated from his sophomore year. I imagine I screwed up some other numbers, too. Never send a human to do a computer’s job!
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That seems like a bit of a weak retort, Fla
How can it be a retort? I specifically wrote in my OP:
The list of college guys that ever put up the average, OBP, and SLG that Brown did last year is very small – certainly just as small as the list of .295 career hitters.
Xanthan then “retorted” to my OP by cherry-picking just 1 of the factors that I specifically stated to do a search on. He’s the one that had the weak retort.
If you were to write, “the list of MLB pitchers that have won the Cy Yung award, the MVP, and had the most strikeouts in a given year is very low.” And I came back with the retort, “Ha, you rube, I checked and the list of pitchers that have led the league in strikeouts is over 200!” Would that be a legitimate point in your opinion?
Last year
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
When I wrote my OP, I realized that the .438 BA in college was not that special, that’s why I included all 3 categories. The thing that really made what Brown did special was that he had the BA and the power. Not only did he slug .695, but his ISO was .257. That meant that he wasn’t just a slap-hitting speedster with no power.
To answer part of my own question, besides Brown, there was only 3 other Division 1 college players that hit at least .438, slugged at least .695, and OBP’s at least .485:
Justin Howard of New Mexico
Jace Brinkerhoff of Utah Valley State
Chris Duffy of Central Florida
As you can see, Brown was the only one that was able to do it against top-level competition and pitching. The only major college hitter that came close to Brown was Rob Segedin of Tulane (3rd round pick of the Yankees).
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
How are you researching that? You didn’t include any of the seasons I listed in my above post (three of which came in Division 1 contexts, Griffin, Greene, and McCurdy) and I wasn’t at all exhaustive in my research — just picked 4 names and looked them up. All 4 exceeded your qualifications (mostly by a LOT) and none of the 4 are listed in your post above.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Wow, interesting list. I wonder whether any of those guys had the same “no walks” shape to their performance like Brown.
Sorry
Love the stuff you write and always appreciate your opinion, but you’re cherry-picking the players who made it. What about other burners like Chad Meyers, Bernie Castro or Freddy Guzman? Those guys all had great speed and went on to do….nothing. You’re right that speed helps, but if you can’t drive the ball, the outfielders will cheat up and take away a lot of hits, probably enough to offset any additional hits he would get because of his speed.
In looking at Brown’s frame though, I think that if he’s willing to make some serious adjustments to his swing, he could actually drive the ball with more authority. If not he’s going to have a very tough time hitting the ball in to the gap without an aluminum bat and all his weight on his front foot. Then he would only need to improve his walk rates a little to be a productive player. Still I think he projects to being a good to great CF who hits in the 8 hole on most teams and bats leadoff for the Giants because he won’t cheat the game.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 18, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
im prolly the only person on this website that would put wheeler above belt.
an ace that gets ground balls like a mother is awesome. Remember what brandon webb to the league
"Life is like a grapefruit. Well, it's orange and dimpled on the outside, wet and squidgy in the middle. It's got pips inside, and some people have a half a one for breakfast."
Ted Williams: .406 1941
Gary Brown: .438 2010
by operation carrot on Aug 17, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
No I think you have to seriously consider Wheeler #1. He’s only a year removed from being considered a top 10 talent in the draft and his peripherals have shown good stuff if bad command. I’m not sure which way I’m leaning on that, but I’m sure there will be a lot of Wheeler supporters at #1 in the community poll come December.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I would agree, but....
TINSTAPP
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t argue if you wanted to put Wheeler in the top spot.
by Dan from NM on Aug 17, 2010 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey Steve
Why the ‘AthleticXXXXXs’? Did I miss a meme?
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Check out the new look of SFDugout.com•
I was thinking that same thing.
by IAin'tHavingIt on Aug 17, 2010 8:36 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I was thinking that same thing.
by IAin'tHavingIt on Aug 17, 2010 8:36 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Clearly you were.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Aug 17, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I liked that. But for the extra X I was going to go with some odd porn reference.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Aug 17, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Bowkermania Update
2-3, BB, HR, 3B, 2 R, RBI. (In a Joe Martinez loss).
Now hitting .435 for Indianapolis. $#%@$#
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 9:51 AM PDT reply actions
I guess it’s not a big deal when you’re hitting .435/.469/.717, with a 31.6 LD%, but only 2 BB v. 8 K for Bowker since moving to Pirates org.
.335/.404/.620 overall – .289/.346/.506 MLE.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 17, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
This
Fred Lewis was a bit more understandable because of his defensive issues, but more importantly his attitude. (Whether his attitude was a product of his personality or the Giants treatment is another conversation). Bowker always seemed to have a good attitude though, aside from not wanting to get shanked in South America, which really pisses me off. I hope he goes on to a great career in Pittsburgh and is their lone AS representative next year.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
When he’s the Pirates lone all star representative three times, Sabean will make a bad trade to bring him back.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
by rxmeister on Aug 17, 2010 10:46 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Nah, he has to tear up his knee first.
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis who is stuck in the baseball purgatory called extended spring training.
But Fred has never had a below average offensive season
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Not saying he did
I’m just saying that it’s at least somewhat understandable from the standpoint of clubhouse chemistry and maintaining order.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 17, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
That's true
I should’ve pointed out that I meant that with Lewis, he had a history of success, which was more bizarre than sending off someone who has yet to have (but still probably will have) MLB success.
or maybe I should just say LOL corner outfield
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I wanted to put this at the bottom so it doesn't get all smooshed
But you failed to meet the critiria plainly stated in my post:
Year Team Player AVG AB SLG OBP 2001 Florida State John-ford Griffin 0.45 251 0.797 0.542 2002 Clemson Khalil Greene 0.47 285 0.877 0.552 2002 Illinois-Chicago Curtis Granderson 0.483 207 0.763 0.562 2002 Marist Anthony Bocchino 0.444 207 0.778 0.522 2002 Maryland John McCurdy 0.443 221 0.828 0.496 2004 East Tennessee State Caleb Moore 0.455 202 0.752 0.509 2005 Davidson Jay Heafner 0.448 203 0.700 0.533 2006 Utah Ryan Khoury 0.438 224 0.728 0.549 2007 William and Mary Greg Sexton 0.455 209 0.713 0.514 2008 Florida State Buster Posey 0.463 257 0.879 0.566 2008 Georgia Southern Chris Shehan 0.438 224 0.835 0.557 2008 Indiana Josh Phegley 0.438 224 0.746 0.507 2009 College of Charleston Joey Bergman 0.452 221 0.778 0.551 2009 Middle Tennessee State Bryce Brentz 0.465 230 0.930 0.535
Sorry that OBP and SLG are out of order.
Ask me about my blog.
Interesting, so none had an OBP as low as Brown’s .468 or slugged as low as his .695.
by Dan from NM on Aug 18, 2010 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
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