Should the Giants skip Timmy's next start?
by Kitspool on Aug 16, 2010 9:53 AM PDT
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PrintFirst off, this is not meant to be a "What's wrong with Timmy?" discussion. Although it's fair to say I wouldn't be bringing the question in the fanpost title up for discussion if many (most?) of us didn't think something's wrong with Tim Lincecum in 2010. PiKAgiant brought up the "should Timmy skip a start" question in yesterday's postgame thread, and I thought this would be a good place to expand on it.
If you do think something's wrong with Tim Lincecum's delivery/velocity/command/control/arm/head, will skipping his next start make things better? Since Grant has the rights to Point/Counterpoint (and he's much funnier than I am), I'll present what seem to be the pros and cons of the argument.
Pros
- If the Giants make the playoffs, they need Tim Lincecum to pitch really, really well. The trend over the last month of his starts is very depressing. Skipping a start would break up a vicious cycle and have the bonus effect of saving his arm for October.
- By skipping a start, Lincecum would get a full 12 days between starts. The last time he had a lengthy break was the eight days around the All-Star Game, and he came back to pitch a complete game shutout of the Mets. His next start would be a Friday night home game against the D-backs, and the Giants are still 10-1 on Orange Fridays this season.
- It would allow Chris Lincecum to spend a good stretch of time working on fixing his son's mechanics. The Giants should pay for his airfare and hotel room in St. Louis and Philly, which is pocket change compared to what they're paying their ace.
- Skipping a start worked for both Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez in seasons past. I'm too lazy to compile all their numbers pre- and post-skipped starts, but anecdotally I remember a certain no-hitter…
Cons
- Lincecum is 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA against the Cardinals. They have a .551 OPS against him. He went 7 innings and had 8 strikeouts against them back on April 23 (you know, back when he was "good") in a 4-1 win.
- His scheduled Saturday start is at night in St. Louis, and his night ERA is more than half a run lower than his day ERA.
- If his confidence is shaky right now, the Giants might be exacerbating things by skipping a start. Maybe he'd perceive that decision as a lack of faith in him to right himself. Keeping him on schedule and giving him the chance to shut down the Cardinals offense would be a sign of encouragement.
- The Giants are in the middle of a pennant race, and they can't afford to throw a AAA spot starter on the road matched up against Chris Carpenter. Timmy's not pitching like an ace, but he's still striking people out and he's getting bled to death by BABIP bloops as much as anything.
Myself, I'm leaning towards the "don't skip a start" camp, but it's pretty close. What say you, McCoven?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Unless he’s physically injured, I think the Giants pretty much have to keep him in the rotation.
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Yup
Plus, it’s what, two bad starts in a row? Let’s not go crazy because of two bad starts.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
The Giants are too close to the playoffs to not start Lincecum. Who takes his start? AAA filler or someone on the roster? I think they’ve got to keep pitching him. Hopefully he’ll work things out.
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by Johnny Disaster on Aug 16, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
You missed a con
The Giants are trying to manage 21-year-old Bumgarner’s workload. Skipping a Lincecum start means more innings for Bum.
by betterthanbochy on Aug 16, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I think they’ve got to keep pitching him. Hopefully he’ll work things out.
by Missing Barry on Aug 16, 2010 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
I'll share this, too.
If it’s too spammy, mods plz nuke.
(Note: Data doesn’t include the last start against the Padres)
Pitch usage and whiff rates on Tim’s three pitches (FB, CH, CU). The changeup is still getting nearly a +12% whiff rate above the league average change. So, it looks pretty good to me. His other pitches look good, too. His FB usage has seen an uptick recently, which is kind of interesting.
If you’re looking for benchmarks for pitch-types, check out this excellent article.
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Is that running totals for the season? I’m assuming so, as I’d expect something more variable if it were start by start. If so, do you have the ability to produce something like a running tally of the 5 most recent starts (if that makes sense)?
by sarf_london_niner on Aug 16, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s a running total. I can do the last 5, I just need to get to my spreadsheet first. I’ll post it later if you’re interested.
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Here’s the whiff-rate of the changeup by start with a secondary axis that represents the # of swings taken in that particular game against the changeup.
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Interesting
Does seem to be an increase in variance as much as a slight decrease in average rate.
I wonder how much that is caused by variance in the changeup, and how much by variance in fastball velocity (and thus fastball-changeup differential). I need to get off my arse and start keeping a pitch database myself.
by sarf_london_niner on Aug 17, 2010 3:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed. If rest will help him physically, then sure. Otherwise, no. The Giants don’t need to get all panicky.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Aug 16, 2010 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes and No
Yes, they should. Ideally. But no, they cannot, since there are no viable alternatives.
While you were reading this, Carlos Willoughby just stole second base.
… they cannot, since there are no viable alternatives.
This is where I am. I’m not sure it would even help, but I don’t think you even get to whether it would help or not, because there is no one to pitch in his place. Even bad Timmy is better than any alternative (Hacker, Pucetas, Wellemeyer).
Adopted Giant: Ryan Rohlinger (on loan from Shanghaijim).
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I’d think that if he skips a start, you’d want to simply have it be a day off kind of thing… Where you use an off-day (like today) to skip him. Then throw him back in after a Bumgarner start.
Just a thought. I couldn’t watch yesterday’s game because A) I already knew the outcome, and B) I was gone anyway, so A doesn’t matter much anyway… And C) I’ll defer to smarter people than me to voice their opinions. I’m just going to come across as crazy noise anyway.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Wait, C had nothing to do with why I couldn’t watch the game… Crap, way to go, me!
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Congratulations I!
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by Johnny Disaster on Aug 16, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, it was about how smart you are…
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Aug 16, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe you should let smarter people than you proof-read your posts
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you beat me to it by a half hour
The biggest issue is whether he is trying weird things that could result in a real arm injury. I would be tempted to give him another start but I wouldn’t let him get tattooed if things are not going well. At that point I’d definitely skip at least one start.
And the worst part, those fukin’ douchenozzles over at the MCC get to lord this over us.
I vote no.
I’m not some Nerd-fuck who’s measuring REAL accomplishments against hypothetical BULLSHIT modeling and mythical probability graphs.
I don’t know. But this is a good fanpost.
Mark DeRosa is playing exactly the same amount of professional baseball as his adopted father, these days.
I don’t know. But this is a good fanpost.
Mark DeRosa is playing exactly the same amount of professional baseball as his adopted father, these days.
This is why delorean’s answer made me LOL.
Utter frustration and futility.
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by Johnny Disaster on Aug 16, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know. But this is a good fanpost.
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Ah
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by troymccluresf on Aug 17, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it shoud depend
On how well the Giants are playing.
Let’s say we take at least 2/3 from Philly. Then we win the first game against the Cards. At that point, I think, I would be comfortable giving Tim a rest, for all the obvious benefits that extra rest would entail.
But if we’re sucking up a storm, as is entirely possible, we really can’t afford to take him out of the rotation.
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by say hey nation on Aug 16, 2010 11:34 AM PDT reply actions
No
No way. He’ll work it out.
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by Giantsfan4life on Aug 16, 2010 11:36 AM PDT reply actions
Dunno
What if all this mechanics stuff is bogus, covering up for arm strengh. maybe they should rest him. i hope i am not right but somethings wrong. we have no chance in the playoffs with him being tired and looking mortal. but skipping him is most likely an automatic loss. if he needs rest it should be up to him, no body knows better then he does.
Its not easy being a giants fan
He should make his start
He pitched very well in the first inning so I am sure he will be reviewing that and trying to replicate it more consistently
There were a lot of bloop hits that did him in that make the outing seem even worse than it was
Chris (Dad) believes pitchers should throw more not less so if you agree with him, sitting doesn’t help (actually weakens the arm instead of strengthening). I think I’ve heard Kruk say that when you sit, control can become more of an issue when you come back too. So if control is the problem, sitting could make it worse. I know Sanchez came back with a no-no but his issue always seems mental. I think Tim is as strong as they come mentally but there appears to be a physical problem.
In the end though, I think the right decision hinges on a proper diagnosis of the problem. Seems as if Timmy is trying to do this himself and it isn’t working. Hopefully the people around him can help him figure out what is actually wrong. Then the corrective action should be more clear
I don't know. But this is a good fanpost.
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Nice job dude. First fan post I ever read.
Something tells me they all aren’t going to be this good (2nd read: Pika’s softball game idea), but I’ll be checking in to the fanposts regularly now and maybe even write one myself.
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I don't know. But this is a good fanpost.
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No
His performance has declined as of late, seemingly as a result of control problems. He has still posted high strikeout numbers and has had more strong starts than rough ones. We have a tendency to worry because he has been so dominant since a few monts into his career and this has been his most difficult stretch. Unless something is physically wrong that we don’t know, we don’t even have an option to replace him for a start besides moving everyone up a day.
The SF Gate and Extra Baggs posters have turned on him and are calling him about “lac of focus” and “he needs to cut his hair”, which is overreaction. His quirky and unique behavior is what endeared us to him, and it’s obvious how much he wants to win. I miss Timmy dominating the way he was earlier this season, but I know it’s not due to a lack of effort.
The 1st pitch is the best
by Tay on Aug 17, 2010 1:22 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Well I’m not going to say it’s lack of focus, but damn that hippie needs to cut his hair now, it’s not looking good. It’s as long as mine! And bring back the high socks while he’s at it.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
I was in full panic mode a few months ago
except for April, outcome be damned he has not looked even close to the same type of pitcher as before. Body language is different stuff/control are sporadic at best. The good starts he has had are the ones where the opposition decides to flail at the changeup in the dirt. If they don’t he’s screwed.
But if the guy is the #1 starter and cant even make it through the 4th inning, why are we killing the bullpen? shut him down, skip starts, whatever. i don’t want to watch Dontrelle Willis Version 2K10 pitch anymore.
Can I get a giant panic button???
by projectmayhem713 on Aug 17, 2010 9:00 AM PDT reply actions
It’s one thing to be “concerned”, but full panic mode? Dude’s still sporting a 3.62 ERA, 3.27 FIP and 3.39 xFIP on the season. His 3.5 BB/9 isn’t bad, he’s 4th in the league in K’s….let’s just relax a bit. It’s not like his recent performances have even been a product of him losing control – he hasn’t walked more than 3 batters in a game over his last 8 starts, and he’s only done it 6 times over the entire season (he walked 5 batters 4 times in a row in May)…..he’s still striking guys out. Look, his continued decline in velocity “worries” me, but Lincecum is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. That the BABIP-gods haven’t smiled upon him recently doesn’t change that, and isn’t a reason for panic.
by Missing Barry on Aug 17, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
im just going by what my eyes tell me. know where near the same guy all year except for april.
i am deathly afraid of making the playoffs because of the inevitable game 1 start where he goes 3.1 innings and kills the bullpen, taking us out of the series.
by projectmayhem713 on Aug 17, 2010 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
The point is what you’re seeing is still a very good pitcher. That guys have been getting some hits off him lately doesn’t really change that. It was just two bad games. Heck, Josh Johnson got shelled in his last game. Jimenez got shelled twice in a row in July. It happens, even to good pitchers. Well, not to Halladay, Cliff Lee or Wainwright (yet). But you know, the point is that Lincecum is still “good”, even if he’s “not as good as last year”. He’s still the best pitcher on our staff, and the last pitcher on our staff we should be worried about a bad, bullpen killing outing from.
by Missing Barry on Aug 17, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions
so if the playoffs started today
you would fully back lincecum as your game 1 starter over zito?
by projectmayhem713 on Aug 17, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
I would.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Aug 17, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Hacker!
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 17, 2010 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
I have to say that as of this moment, I'd go with Zito
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by Sabean's_Folly on Aug 18, 2010 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions
You saw his 0 strikeout performance yesterday, right….? But seriously, what reason exists to go with Zito?
by Missing Barry on Aug 18, 2010 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Found Timmy's problem, commenter on Baggs
wfan1 says:
August 18th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Lincecum is losing strength b/c of drugs. Simple. Until he quits smoking and start taking care of his body and mind, he aint gonna get better.
The Molina sh$t is a convenient excuse because reporters/management/coaches can not and don’t want to discuss the drug problem publicly.
Do people seriously believe he was not doing drugs the last two seasons?
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Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
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