Smoak and prospects to Seattle for Lee and Lowe
by delorean on Jul 9, 2010 2:40 PM PDT
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http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2010/jul/09/justin-smoak-traded-seattle-cliff-lee-deal/
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Texas first baseman and former Stratford High School and South Carolina standout Justin Smoak and three other minor-leaguers were traded to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee and reliever Mark Lowe, according to multiple published reports.
Smoak, who made his major league debut on April 24, was batting .209 with eight home runs and 34 RBIs in 70 games.
After talks between the Seattle Mariners and Yankees fell apart Friday afternoon, the Rangers jumped in and reached agreement on a trade for the left-hander, sources confirmed to ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
The Mariners will also send $2.5 million to the Rangers to subsidize the $4 million still owed to Lee. Texas has financial limitations due to bankruptcy hearings associated with the sale of the team. There has been speculation that the Rangers would not be able to add weapons for the stretch run.
Lee is 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA this season for the Mariners, his first in Seattle. The Phillies traded him this offseason after acquiring Roy Halladay. Lee won the Cy Young while with Cleveland in 2008. Over nine seasons he is 98-55 with a 3.84 ERA.
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I don’t like this for the Mariners, considering the rumors from earlier.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
makes little sense for TEX either
wouldn’t a cash-poor team want to hold on to its young players??
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Adopting Denny Bautista until someone tells me he's already spoken for.
Well the sale of the team might be done soon. I wouldn’t be shocked if they keep Lee in the offseason as a first big move.
by theimmortalbenard on Jul 9, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Smoak for six years though? I think that’s a good deal. If you compare it to the prospects dealt to get Lee, do you think this collection is better?
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 9, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
USS Mariner seems overwhelmingly positive on the trade
I tend to agree. .209 in a small sample size is actually better than, say, Griffey’s numbers. LOLcrappyMarinersoffense.
by Murray, Present on Jul 9, 2010 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm trying to think of comparable trades
This is probably better than what Atlanta got for Teixeira, but that one was clearly a steal for the Angels. I’m not sure how this compares to the Sabathia deal.
I was promised lasagna.
The Sabathia return is probably pretty comparable to this return
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jul 9, 2010 6:56 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
What happened to Lee going to the Yankees?
Wayne Rooney, 1/27/10: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man
Green and Gold Till the Club is Sold- LUHG
The Mariners got scared of David Adams ankle
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Currently my favorite ankle.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 9, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Yankees are pissed. They thought they had a done deal. At least they get lucky and he won’t beat them tonight, but they may see him in the playoffs. Wait until he gets to Texas and sees that new fat catcher that they have.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
Actually, I think the Yanks were smart not to trade a bunch of prospects for him. Their core major league position players (except for Cano) are very long in the tooth, and if they really want Lee they can just sign him in the offseason and lose no prospects. Their starting pitching this year is still good enough to win it all again.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Are they really pissed? I heard a rumor this afternoon that the whole Yankees trade rumor was just a dodge to get Minnesota and Texas to up their offers. I don’t really see this deal being better than the rumored Yankees offer, regardless of Adams ankle. And if they really wanted a catcher so badly (as they kept saying) why not at least force Texas to throw in one of their tarnished goods Cs, either Salty or Max?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Also, how do you hit .209 and still manage 34 RBIs?
Wayne Rooney, 1/27/10: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man
Green and Gold Till the Club is Sold- LUHG
Hi, I’m Mr. Opportunity.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Jul 9, 2010 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't see how
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Adopting Denny Bautista until someone tells me he's already spoken for.
i guess it’s a great trade if Smoak turns out to be a bust.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Adopting Denny Bautista until someone tells me he's already spoken for.
this
I don’t think he will be though. He’s still only 23.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Jul 9, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno…I’m not huge on Smoak, and I realize that Lee could be a rental, but I think this gives the Rangers three solid starters, to go along with an awesome lineup. Maybe they could finally win a playoff series?
Billy Ripken is not a fuck face
if they win the world series
then it’s a great trade
Postseason
I think this was a reasonable move. Smoak is a lot to give up, but I think for a team that is in a murky financial situation, making the playoffs would be big. The extra revenue could really help to put them on solid ground.
If they want to make any kind of run in the postseason, the Rangers need Lee-they need a legit ace. Now they have one, and they have a pretty lights out closer. Typically, teams that are all offense don’t do too well in the post-season, so I see this as solid.
by Gregjitsu on Jul 12, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think that the way to analyze this deal is like this:
1. There is almost no way in hell that the Rangers will be able to re-sign Lee in the off-season, even if they offer him the highest salary (which I don’t think they can). Lee is almost certain to end up with Boston, tthe Yanks, the Mets, the Phils, or the Angels. So, the Rangers are trading Smoak and the other 2 prospects for a little less than 3 months of Lee and whoever they pick in next year’s draft as compensation for Lee.
2. If the Rangers don’t win the championship with Lee this year, then I think the trade has to be considered a loss to them. I just don’t see that they’re going to be able to get any 2 prospects in the late 1st round and early supplemental round, that will equal Smoak, and the other 2 prospects they’re giving up now. And the Rangers better hope that Lee doesn’t sign with a bottom 15 team in the off-season, because then they can kiss the 1st round comp pick goodbye.
That being said, I think this is a good gamble for the Rangers. With Lee they do have a legit shot to win it all this year, and they have more than enough minor league depth to absorb the loss of Smoak in the coming years. They have enough good young pitching in the minors that they could easily swing a trade for a quality MLB first baseman like Fielder or Dunn (to name a few) this year or next.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Oops
Now I see that the Rangers are getting a releiver back from Seattle, and their sending 3 other prospects (including a former #17 pick), besides Smoak to Seattle. My major points from above remain in place, but now it’s even more unlikely that the Rangers would ever be able to replace the 4 prospects with the 2 comp picks they would get after Lee signs with another team in the offseason.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I still it as a win-win
Rangers are in win-now mode. The two comp picks help ease the pain of Smoak and Beaven, even if they probably don’t replace them. and they get a couple million for their bankrupt team. Mariners meanwhile probably got the best offer they could, and clearly wanted to sell.
by wcw on Jul 9, 2010 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought the Rangers weren't allowed to take on additional salary because of the bankruptcy
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
I think the M's are sending some money
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Correct. Just as in the Molina deal, the M’s are covering almost all of the salary that is still owed to Lee and the reliever this year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Not so fast
Actually, I now read that the M’s are only sending $2.25M in cash to the Rangers, which still means the Rangers would be on the hook for more than $2M in salary payouts to Lee and the other guy.
I just don’t believe that the MLB front office will loan that much money to the Rangers to get this deal approved. Teams like the Yanks. BoSox, Angels, Twins, and many more are going to be lighting up the phone lines to Selig to nix this deal. I predict that the M’s will have to iclude more cash and the Rangers will have to throw in another low-level prospect or 2.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
LOL PRO YANKEES MEDIA
So happy all day here in NY, talking about how Yankees are pro active and Mets are reactive. Then they find out the deal is off and he’s heading to a team they may see in the playoffs.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
Your sig makes me sad :(
"By the time I turned twelve, the Dodgers made me vomit." - Joey Margolis, Last Days of Summer
by Prussian Creole on Jul 9, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the Rangers are insane for making this deal. They will lose Lee after the season ends, and so what, you get the Yankees 1st rounder and a compensation pick, neither of those players is equal to a Justin Smoak.
The two things not being mentioned much here are:
A) the Rangers a franchsie that has never won a post season series. Ever.
B) There is no real way of know that the new owners come on board will be willing to spend money to keep their current core together.
If B is valid then this truely is best chance the have to change A before the next tear down & rebuild.
I agree in a team generally looking for longer window moves but that just may not be an option for them now.
Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at: 61%
Spoiler: Grumpy older Giants fan is Grumpy.
by daveinexile on Jul 13, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m a little confused, but seeing as the Rangers are playing so well, I reckon it could work for them. Not a bad flip for the Mariners. Smoak has enormous power potential and is a slick fielder. Pretty much what the Mariners are in the mood for.
"Career potential: situational lefty." Situation: Ragnarok, bases loaded, Odin at the plate. You know who's getting the call.
-Adopted Giant: Dan Runzler
New ownership for the rangers
John Daniels and Nolan Ryan says : Let’s go for it. 3 years from now? That’s their problem.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
I honestly think you might be onto something here
Seriously, 24 hours ago those guys were panicked about the latest round of court rulings on the proposed auction and stuff. It’s looking more and more likely that the Ryan-Greenberg group might not end up with the team after all.
by Duelling Brandos on Jul 9, 2010 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I never really understood the complaints about how Fangraphs sucks up to the Mariners
Until now.
Earlier today, some thought that Jesus Montero was a solid haul for Lee, along with the rest of the package. In that case, the return of Justin Smoak has to be seen as an absolute steal.
What?
I was promised lasagna.
Yeah, I didn’t get that either.
Apparently proximity to major leagues overrides prospect status, even though those rankings are supposed to factor that in in the first place. Ridiculous line of reasoning.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
And it’s not like Smoak earned the call-up or anything. He was good in AA last year, but then hit .244/.363/.360 in half a year in AAA. His BB% was very impressive, but his K rate was too high. He hit well in AAA this year…in 66 PA’s, and since then has been doing poorly in the majors.
And really, the year Montero had last year was just…rare. I can’t think of any other word for it. .340/.392/.564 with a 47/28 K/BB from a 19 year old splitting time between A+ and AA. I mean, when Miguel Cabrera was that age, he spent the entire year in A+, and hit .274/.333/.421 with an 85/38 K/BB. When Adrian Gonzales was that age, he spent the entire year in A ball, and hit .312/.382/.486 with an 83/57 K/BB. Hanley Ramirez spent the entire year in A ball and hit .275/.327/.403 with a 73/32 K/BB.
Some players had similar, or even better years when they were that age – Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Adrian Beltre, Jason Heyward. That’s about it, as far as I can tell.
I was promised lasagna.
I like this trade better than the other one
But, then, I really like Smoak. FWIW, Smoak and Montero were ranked fairly close together before the season started.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
I read the comments section on the article and apparently all of the subsidiary pieces in the Texas package are superior to those in the New York package, so I agree overall.
I thought Montero is more highly reputed though, there is a bit of a gap between 4 and 13 on the BA list, no?
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Well, I discussed Smoak in the other thread, but I’m happy to do it again: what are people seeing in him?
The guy has one good skill – plate discipline. That is all. It is an important skill, and he seems extremely good at it, but that’s all he has. He is not a good contact hitter (K’d too much both in the minors and the majors). He does not have much power (scouts quiestioned his power back when he was drafted, and he hasn’t shown much at any level so far), he has little value defensively (even a GG 1B is just a 1B, after all), and he is not a good baserunner. And, at 23.7, he’s not even terribly young.
Upside is Daric Barton, basically. Cool to have, but really nothing to drool about.
I was promised lasagna.
One point in the fangraphs comments is that the Mariners park favors lefties more than righties, helping Smoak more than Montero.
Other than that Montero to me is clearly the better bet, and the choice hinges on the lesser guys like Lueke and Beavan who are apparently far stronger than the Yankee counterparts.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
I don't know
They both seem to have extremely limited upsides – Lueke is 25 year old reliever in AA, the Beavan has never posted a decent K rate.
David Adams is a 23 year old 2B hitting .309/.393/.507 in AA. Last year hit .286/.373/.443 between A and A+. Basically Brock Bond with doubles power. Apparently has had some injury problems this year. And McAllister is Tim Alderson.
Maybe the Rangers prospects are a bit better, but I’m really not sure about that, and I don’t think it’s enough to make up for Smoak not actually being that good.
I was promised lasagna.
I'd say his upside is higher than Daric Barton
But I pretty much agree with you. I think Smoak will settle into about ~2.5 to 3 WAR consistently, maybe with a big 4-5 WAR season sometime, but I doubt he’s going to be a superstar.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I think you’re overselling his strikeout rate and underselling his power. He has plus-plus power potential. Of course, that’s potential, it clearly hasn’t shown up yet.
Also, and this is almost certainly going to look really stupid, I really don’t believe in Montero. I know he’s done great and given his age it’s OMGWTF, but for some reason I don’t see him being anything more than an ok DH. And yes, this is 100% gut, obviously.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
But based on the statistical record, we have Montero at A+/AA at age 19 hitting for a .951 OPS with a .562 SLG and Smoak at AA/AAA at age 22 hitting for an .853 OPS with a .443 SLG. Now, I don’t doubt that Smoak could potentially turn into a better player than that (Adrian Gonzalez never had impressive power numbers in the minors, for example), but I have to agree with Cookyman that it’s hard to find something about Smoak that’s more impressive than Montero, other than maybe first base defense, but how important is that?
When you consider that the Ms didn’t get a great haul out of the other three pieces, I really don’t get why they’d prefer Smoak to Montero.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Like
I like Smoak. I was arguing for him in the other topic. But there’s an awful lot of Casey Kotchman in his minor league lines to this point.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I would have taken the Yankees offer personally if I were weighing those deals.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
But that was just rumors. We do not know the specifics of the Yankee deal. I believe that it will come out in the future that they Yanks were not offerring Montero, Adams, and whomever in a package deal. Outlets like ESPN reports these things as fact, but they rarely get their facts strtaight on potential deals like this.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
“Facts” are certainly a slippery thing both during these kinds of reported story and afterwards when teams spin the events for their particular fanbase. As I noted above, I heard a rumor that day that the Yankees “offer” was really a dodge trying to get the Twins and Rangers to up their bids. Who knows.
One thing we can say though, is that ESPN’s reporters have contacts in front offices and if Olney is reporting a deal that has Yankee connections, he’s getting his knowledge from the Yankees front office. Front offices routinely use these connections for their own purposes, frequently floating ideas to see what how the fanbase reacts, for instance. But I for one, would believe a lot of other things before I’d believe that Olney was simply wrong or making up names that somebody hadn’t given him. And I’m generally speaking a pretty skeptical person, I’d say.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Oh, I fully realize
There is pretty much no way to argue for Smoak over Montero looking at the numbers, scouting reports, or anything else. What Montero has done at his age is pretty absurd. I can’t explain why I don’t like him, but I don’t. I understand I’m the crazy one here.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
I could take “Yankees Prospect Overhype” as a legit answer.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Yeah, but it’s not even that in this case.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
Probably will be a DH from day 1.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Disagree.
I think you’re vastly underestimating Smoak and his upside. His AAA line last year was disappointing, but he was dealing with an oblique strain for part of that time. His AAA line from this year was great (small sample size caution, obviously).
He does not have much power (scouts quiestioned his power back when he was drafted, and he hasn’t shown much at any level so far)
Well, his ISO at the major league level is .140, and at AA was .153. Not incredible, but not bad. Kevin Goldstein pegged Smoak’s upside as “switch-hitting Justin Morneau”. That’s pretty good. Maybe scouts aren’t unanimous about his power, but at least some of them are projecting that he will hit homers. Also, his line this year has been marred by a .237 BABIP. Normalize that and his line looks a whole lot better. The 24.7% K-rate is too high, but he’s a player in first major league season. If he is still whiffing in a quarter of his bats late in his second year, or in his third, then it’s time to worry. Goldstein also notes that Smoak “is a solid to plus defender at first.” As for dismissing defense at first (“even a GG 1B is just a 1B”), it is obviously a ‘bat first’ position, but that doesn’t mean defense is worth nothing. If you have two first basemen with similar offensive capabilities, who do you play-the talented glove man, or the statue with stone hands?
Now, I definitely think Montero is the better prospect of the two. But I still think that Smoak is a good acquisition, and a good prospect. He probably isn’t going to be Mark Teixeira. But you can fall short of Teixeira and still be a darn good baseball player.
did david cameron write that article?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
No, Jack Moore.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
Moore is the real homer. Read his article on the Russel Branyan trade (there’s a link to that in his stat page).
I was promised lasagna.
Isn't Moore a Brewers' fan?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I think they’re all fans of the new Seattle GM. It looks like they automatically approve of anything he does.
I was promised lasagna.
#6 organization in baseball
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I dunno if the 2 are related
but Jack Z did come from the Brewers
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Taken from LL, they were cross posting the Mariners Facebook responses
"No they traded Lee to the TexAsss rangers for a looser named Smoak hence blowing smoak up are ARS!"
"wow how dumb can yall be…every talent weve had in seattle weve traded away…so we fans shouldnt be surprised! this is classic mariner baseball! griffey, a-rod, randy johnson, cliff lee, dont be surprised if ichiro os gone next year!"
"Why would we trade Lee to a team in our own division?!?!?"
"Can’t wait for the guy batting just .209 with 8 HRs to join the club."
"Why trade Lee to the best AL west team? So we can never win?"
"Are you serious johnno? It was idiotic stupid we need to keep our good players he’s the best player that was on our team and the best pitcher in the MLB stupid so stupid we did that "
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
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