Halfway point. Where do the Giants go from here?
by bigboneded on Jul 5, 2010 3:53 AM PDT
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Well, we have reached halfway. The Giants have played 3 wins below their expected win total based on run differential (technically due to chance, I say due to Bochy), are in the midst of a brutal losing jag and road trip, and are in even worse shape than at this point last year.
After 81 games in 2009, the Giants were 44-37 and 7.5 games back of the Dodgers. They are currently 7.5 behind the Pads, but are off their own pace from 2009. The Giants have lost more games this year, even with Zito's resurgence, Huff playing to his ceiling, and Posey being with the team this last month or so.
So what do you guys think happens in the second half of the season? Does Sabean make drastic changes, or does he stand pat because we were in it last year even at 7.5 back with 81 left ? Do we turn around our record in one run games? Do we suddenly start winning on the road? How about in the division? Or is this the team we got?
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They’ll hang around about where they are now, not really in this thing but close enough that Sabean trades for Cody Ross or Javier Lopez or some other nonentity. Team finishes within a few games of .500, reloads with more vets in the off-season, repeat ad infinitum.
by Evan on Jul 5, 2010 9:00 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
They may actually fire Bochy
The pinch-running debacle was so clearly evidence of managerial incompetence, I wonder if Bork’s days may not be numbered.
I also wonder if deals might not be possible to add by subtraction, dealing Renteria or Uribe, or maybe even Rowand. What we need are teams that a) are in pennant races, b) are able to take on salary, and c) have serious holes at SS or CF. Maybe Sabes feels emboldened by the Bengie deal. But we don’t have to get a solid prospect for those guys for it to be a good deal. Just getting out from under the contracts and the players would be enough.
Fulfilling your Gus Benusa needs since 2009!
That's true
Then again, you always have to distinguish between (a) what the Giants should do and (b) what Sabean will do.
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
A week ago I would have laughed at the idea of getting anything back for those guys (except maybe Uribe), but after the Bengie Drop, who knows. Renteria’s a .300 hitter, after all!
That’s the way I remember feeling after the Morris trade.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
by Ott on Jul 5, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
wishful thinking
the casual fan not only doesn’t care about the pinchrunning snafu — they don’t even know it happened.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Adopting Denny Bautista until someone tells me he's already spoken for.
I don’t know. Buster is pretty popular. And it was such an outrageously awful move that even Kruk and Kuip were forced to admit it was peculiar decision making. Not that it’s going to get Bochy fired mid-season (because we’re still “in this thing”), but it does seem that some issues are piling up between Bochy and the front office that will lead to a change come winter if we don’t have a big second half.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Hire Chili Davis to be next season's batting instructor
“Look at my sophomore year,” said Davis, who slipped from 19 homers and 76 RBIs in 1982 to 11 and 59 in 1983. “The biggest reason is, the league adjusts to you and finds out your zones, and the graphs tell them where your power area is, and they’re not throwing the ball there. He’s just got to let his ability take over and make at-bats more comfortable and not try to match last year’s numbers.”
Chili chats with John Shea about the Panda
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
The guy is named after a canned bean and meat dish.
How can you not like him.
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
One consideration:
By my reckoning, in the first half of the season the Giants gave, depending on exactly how you count whom, at least one-quarter and perhaps as much as one-third of their plate appearances to batters who should have had zero PAs on a real major-league club. In two cases—Whiteside and Ishikawa—they have gottten lucky; in the rest (Rowand, Molina, Bowker, Downs, Velez, Rohlinger), they got what they so richly deserved. DeRosa is something of a special case, but I cannot believe it took over 100 PA before the literally painful truth was 100% obvious.
Now none of that means that Bochy will suddenly, at the 82nd game of the season, have become smart enough to figure out how runs are scored and who can actually contribute to that process, but at least the lipoma has been excised and poor DeRosa is finally on the DL, a big start. Also, Huff, Burrell, and Torres have now made their respective cases so strongly that even Bochy would have trouble missing it—plus, grace a Dieu, they are veterans, and so he can “safely” play them.
So now if Bochy could be persuaded to bench Rowand in favor of Schierholtz, and stop pretending that Ishikawa has suddenly become a bona fide major-league player, this team might actually be able to make some use of the not inconsiderable offensive talent it has. Icing on the cake would be if Panda could recover some of his prior skills.
And on the pitching side, when the staff is reduced back to 12, one hopes that at least one of those two open cans of gas, Bautista and Casilla, will get sent back down; best would be both, with Martinez recalled for long relief; of course, they might re-institute Wellemeyer, a big step back, but we it’s unclear what he has done that would especially endear him to anyone (Bochy’s craving for veterans is rather lower respecting pitchers).
So there is hope. Stay thirsty, my friends.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
I believe Ishi is being played because another team wants a look at him and not because Bochy suddenly thinks hes bona fide. The fact that they are in Milwaukee scares me. I think some current Giants, read: Cain and Ishikawa, will be staying when we leave, and a current Brewer will be leaving with us…perhaps Fielder or McGehee. I sooooooo hope I’m wrong but then I have to ask myself if I would rather keep Cain or see the Giants win a championship. I pray it can be both and we move Jonny.
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
I AM PAT BURRELLZ'Z DADDY! (wait, that doesn't sound right)
by bigboneded on Jul 5, 2010 8:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
The words "Giants" and "trade" in the same sentence . . .
. . . are chilling.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
The criticism of Bochy for playing Ishikawa the last few days seems a bit over the top. The guy was doing well as a pinch hitter. I’m all for playing the statistically stronger players the majority of the time, but there’s something to be said for keeping a guy who is obviously seeing the ball well in the lineup… especially when the pitching matchups are favorable. I dislike much about Bochy’s veteran loving ways but I think a manager who refuses to reward strong play with more playing time is a bad manager. If Ishikawa continues to get regular playing time after his bat cools then criticize away, but for now its seems awfully unwarranted.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
The basic problem is . . .
. . . that Ishikawa has fairly well proved over time that as a first baseman—or at any corner—his bat is simply not adequate. His 2010 to date is less than 10% of his major-league career, which has been fairly consistent. With the positional flexibility on this team, there is simply no realistic role for Ishikawa, or any backup first baseman. It’s a shame, as Ishikawa seems a really great guy, but this is baseball, and that’s how it is.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Sure, but its not like he’s been stealing at-bats from anyone more deserving all season. Nobody is arguing Ishi should now become the regular starting 1B, just that your panic over his recent playing time is a bit overblown. I agree that its a little bit silly to keep a guy around all season when his only role is LHH pinch hitter, but at least its a role he seems to have taken to quite well. But I also don’t know that he’s stealing a roster spot or at-bats away from anyone a whole lot more deserving right now. For now I’m totally fine with Ishikawa on the roster and I’m totally fine with him getting semi-regular playing time for as long as he’s on his current hot streak. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of evidence to support your claim that Bochy feels Ishi has become a bona-fide starting 1B, and using your reasoning it seems to me like Andres Torres would still be a bench player if on the roster at all.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Focus, focus.
The issue is playing time given to men who simply ought not to be on the major-league roster of a seriously competitive club. “Streaks” are as significant for players as for dice at a craps table: if you would actually risk real money on the theory that a given pair of dice is currently “hot”, God help you.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
You stole my thunder
I was thinking about wasted PAs and did some quick math. I don’t have a problem with Ishi and Whiteside getting occasional ABs, so I focused on guys with an OPS+ of under 80:
Player/PAs
Molina/221
Derosa/104
Bowker/90 (sorry, Bowkermaniacs, he may have potential, but he didn’t do anything for us this seasom)
Rowand/238
Velez/54
Total 707
That’s 22.7% of the 3118 PAs the Giants have taken this year. If you consider that team is now capabale of of these guys not getting another PA and sending up guys who have a current OPS+ of 100 or better, I think this team, if managed properl (I know I know), could do much better in the second half.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
This is a dubious way of looking at things; it’s awfully hard to determine in advance who’s not going to be worthy of major-league at-bats. DeRosa, for instance, is obviously a fine hitter, but he got hurt. This can happen to anyone (in fact, it’s virtually guaranteed to happen to a regular or two as the season goes on), and often it takes quite a few at-bats before it’s clear to the manager that he needs to be benched.
Rowand’s problem, meanwhile, is largely (though not entirely) BABIP-related, and this too can happen to anyone. Renteria’s almost as far over his head BABIP-wise as Rowand is under; you have to assume that’s going to even out in the second half, which means the team as a whole isn’t getting any better.
Wasn't implying that we could have possibly known all this would play out
But I am implying that now that we know what we know, things like having Posey in there is better than Molina, having Burrell in there is better than Derosa/Bowker/Velez and having Torres in there is better than Rowand.
I’ll also add that I like MadBum in there more than Wellemeyer.
As far as Rowand goes, I just don’t see a hitter with a clue, BABIP be damned.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
No, it's not.
. . . it’s awfully hard to determine in advance who’s not going to be worthy of major-league at-bats.
Save perhaps in the case of men with litlle or no mejaor-league experience, it’s not. (And even for them, there are plausible MLE conversions.) These men—alphabetically, Bowker, Downs, Ishikawa, Molina, Rowand, Rohlinger, Velez, Whiteside—are men whom one more or less knew coming into 2010, from their career stats, were not going to be useful contributors save by massive amounts of luck. DeRosa was another case, but everyone should have known in half or less of the time it took (expressed as plate appearances) that something significant was very seriously wrong.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
These men—alphabetically, Bowker, Downs, Ishikawa, Molina, Rowand, Rohlinger, Velez, Whiteside—are men whom one more or less knew coming into 2010, from their career stats, were not going to be useful contributors save by massive amounts of luck.
Velez and Molina, I couldn’t agree more. Ishikawa, sure, but he’s gotten very little PT. Downs and Rohlinger were short-term injury replacement call-ups, so the point is moot. Whiteside is a backup catcher, so his role is minimal and expectations low. Bowker has a similar track record to Schierholtz, so giving him playing time wasn’t exactly a travesty (and the Giants had plenty to go around to start the season), over Lewis, maybe not. Rowand, OTOH, had a track record of MLB average-ness and got replaced by a career minor leaguer. Except for Molina and Velez (who only got 46 ABs anyway), I don’t see a really egregious misuse of playing time on this list. Looking at some of the team’s top performers—Torres, Huff, Burrell—you’d have to conclude that each was somewhere between a gamble and a long-shot to be as productive as they have been.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Disagree.
Ishikawa has gotten close to 60 plate appearances; that is close to 60 more than he should have gotten. Downs and Rohlinger got play time beyond that necessary merely to cover for an injury. Whiteside, bless his heart, should not get to bat unless two men are injured in front of him; the Giants have just hypnotized themselves into forgetting that Pablo Sandoval came up as a catcher, and was a pretty good one at the major-league level. Bowker is the kind of hitter that gets play time from—and only from—managers who think Spring Training is a serious opportunity to evaluate players.
Meanwhile, there was plenty of reason to believe that Torres, Huff, and Burrell would be vaulable additions, and that’s not after-the-fact hindsight—look up my early posts on them, which do not reflect blinding baseball genius but rather a simple understanding of what career statistics lines mean.
I repeat that when the useless men end up with one-quarter to one-third of your team’s total plate appearances, you have put a ball and chain on your offense, and a heavy one at that.
It is hard to soar with the eagles when you work for turkeys.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Ishikawa has gotten close to 60 plate appearances; that is close to 60 more than he should have gotten.
Who would those ABs have gone to otherwise? Bowker? One of the backup middle infielders? Schierholtz? Noone of these guys are hugely superior to Ishikawa. I agree that he’s got not future as a major league 1B (backup or otherwise), but giving him 60 ABs is a venial sin at best.
Downs and Rohlinger got play time beyond that necessary merely to cover for an injury.
Sanchez missed 37 games due to injury, and Renteria 40. If 39 games and 104 plate appearance from Downs and Rohlinger combined was “beyond necessary”, it wasn’t by much.
Bowker is the kind of hitter that gets play time from—and only from—managers who think Spring Training is a serious opportunity to evaluate players.
Or AAA performance, apparently.
Meanwhile, there was plenty of reason to believe that Torres, Huff, and Burrell would be vaulable additions, and that’s not after-the-fact hindsight—look up my early posts on them, which do not reflect blinding baseball genius but rather a simple understanding of what career statistics lines mean.
I didn’t say “valuable” I said "as valuable as they have been. Torres has been a borderline-MVP candidate (depending on how you value his defense), Huff is more or less equaling his best season, Burrell is 80 points above his career OPS in his short stint as a Giant. “a rather simple understanding of what career statistics lines mean” would lead you to believe that there are all unlikely results (and unlikely to continue).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I agree with all of this except the bit on Ishikawa. He’s not likely to develop enough to be a good starter, but with his glove, he wouldn’t be the worst everyday first baseman in the game even if he doesn’t get any better than he is now. And someone always wants one of these Mientkiewicz/Erstad types as a backup anyway.
Anyway, looking over some other teams rosters, I see that the Rays have given around 650 plate appearances to players with an OPS+ under 85, and they seem to be doing all right. Same for the Reds. For Atlanta, it’s around 850 PAs. Detroit: 1,050. Texas: 1,320. These are all among the best teams in baseball.
No question the Giants have made some poor personnel decisions, but as a panacea, “no at-bats for bad players” is a dead end.
“No at bats for bad players” is going to help in the second half, but it’s going to help every team (at least the ones that aren’t wracked by injury). It’s less a case of the Giants being singularly cursed with suck and more a case of a rising tide (of information, in this case) raising all ships.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
A lot of this . . .
. . . arises from failing to distinguish properly between what rate stats show and what count stats show. At this stage in a season, a relatively small change in some count stats (actual numbers of, say, hits or walks) can lead to what look like huge differences in rate-stat form.
One thing that seems not to have been noticed enough is the number of players who are drawing substantially many more walks than might be expected; aside from wondering if this is pixie dust from BamBam’s mojo bag, we need to note that a player—like Huff, for example—who gets the career-expected number of hits but has fewer at-bats owing to more walks taken will look like his hitting has soared unexpectedly because his batting average has soared; but if we were keeping track of hits per plate appearance (as we should have been this lats century and a half), we would see that there has been no change, meaning Huff (again, as only one example) is not hitting notably above expectations—just walking more (something much more likely to be sustainable).
I am too lazy to look up the records, but PAs for Downs or Rohlinger would only be needed for the period, if any, when both Sanchez and Renteria both were unavailable. I have a notoriously bad memory, but it seems to me that they got some starts at times when that was not the case.
As to who would/should have gotten Ishikawa’s PAs, that depends on where others were being used. I have several times posted a rota chart showing how the team’s best batters could be used (and not abused) to provide all the play time needed.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
You say that as if a jump in walk rate was predictable based on these players history
There was no reason to think that Huff’s B rate would jump by 3.3% over his career mark this season.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Sorry for the confusion:
No, certainly it was not. But even without such an increase, Huff’s numbers were pretty good, good enough that he clearly merited everyday use. The idea that he was some washed-up piece of junk has been severely exaggerated, as it has been concerning several older players, possibly by the word “veteran” having been severely contaminated by its exposure to Messrs. Molina and Rowand, and the money being paid some men (which has nothing to do with their usefulness per se).
It is refreshingly pleasant to see so many players each having nontrivial improvements in performance and value owing directly to increases in walks rate, and if anyone has any other theory than BamBam’s mojo bag as a source for it, I’d be interested in hearing it. How nice—a Giants coach who is (apparently) quite good at his job.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
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