FanGraphs: Is Timmy Broken?

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I’m certainly nervous.

Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.

by marcello on Jul 21, 2010 2:07 PM PDT reply actions

How did Kershaw’s velocity compare to normal?

The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.

by SF Pete on Jul 21, 2010 2:15 PM PDT reply actions

some dude named Nick Steiner confirmed my suspicions

Before his last start, his fastball velocity had been way up from where it was at the beginning of the season:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/5705_P_FA_20100715.png

And even in his last start, it was higher according to BIS than it was according to the Pitch f/x data you quoted. If you look at the other starting pitcher that game (Kershaw), his fastball averaged 91.5 MPH compared to a seasonal average (per FanGraphs) of 92.8. The other pitchers I checked for that game (Broxton, Kuo, Casilla) were also well down from their season velocity. I’d estimate the Pitch f/x gun for that game was running cold by at least 1 MPH.

The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.

by SF Pete on Jul 21, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Moderately reassuring.

by Evan on Jul 21, 2010 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

With those weird accidental eephus pitches I’m thinking he might have been having blister issues again.

The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.

by SF Pete on Jul 21, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

He needs to learn to put down the roach and not take the risk hit.

Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jul 21, 2010 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions

If Timmy isn’t healthy, we don’t make the playoffs.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Jul 21, 2010 2:21 PM PDT reply actions

~~If Timmy isn’t healthy~~, we don’t make the playoffs

I ain't havin' it

by NuschlerFace on Jul 22, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I’m not convinced he’s broken or not healthy or becoming average or whatever.

I just think Timmy’s motion has a TON of moving parts. If any of those falls out of whack, his whole delivery is off. It’ll just take him some time to figure out what is going wrong in the sequence and correct it.

by Cixelsyd on Jul 21, 2010 2:24 PM PDT reply actions

I’ve been in this line throughout most of Timmy’s troubles. Still, even after a complete game shutout, I’m starting to get a little nervous. Instead of the usual, “Oh good, Lincecum’s pitching so he’ll dominate” feeling, I now think, “Hmm…I hope we get good Lincecum tonight.” I don’t like it.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 21, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm one more bad start away from full on panic mode.

Also my dodger fan friend has been telling me for years that timmy is gonna fall apart one of these days because of his delivery. I would hate for him to be right

"Life is like a grapefruit. Well, it's sort of orangy-yellow and dimpled on the outside, wet and squidgy in the middle. It's got pips inside, too. Oh, and some people have a half a one for breakfast."

by operation carrot on Jul 21, 2010 2:27 PM PDT reply actions

The unfortunate thing is that even if he falls apart for some other reason, the delivery will – no matter what – be the thing that is blamed.

"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff

by howtheyscored on Jul 22, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions

didn’t he throw a complete game shutout less than a week ago?

by FluLikeSymptoms on Jul 21, 2010 2:36 PM PDT reply actions

Throwing 93/94, too.

by Grant Brisbee on Jul 21, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

He also struck out 10 vs the Brewers the game before that.

by superk1ng on Jul 21, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

LA LA LA LA, CAN’T HEAR DAVE CAMERON. LA LA LA LA.

by KCE on Jul 21, 2010 3:11 PM PDT reply actions

Maybe Dave’s just bitter because Seattle could have drafted Lincecum.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 21, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions

or maybe he is just still trying to justify his pre-draft assessment of Lincecum:

I’m not a big Lincecum guy, obviously. Just too many risks. I’m not a proponant of trying to hit a lottery ticket with a top pick.

by FluLikeSymptoms on Jul 21, 2010 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Wasn't Morrow a big risk anyway?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Jul 21, 2010 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't remember the pre-draft reports

but switching him between starter and reliever 50000000 times can’t be good

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jul 21, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought he was regarded as a bit of a project

Because big arm + not much secondary stuff + control issues sounds like the kind of guy I’d want to take out of high school, not college. But yeah, he did get jerked around a lot

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Jul 22, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

The Mariners love doing that

I mean they did with Morrow and then Phillippe Aumont. Also I remember Aumont being called the RH MadBum in the 07 draft. I can laugh about that now

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jul 22, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think he's broken, I think he's human

You can sort pitchers by almost any category and Timmy’s still in the top 20 if not the top 10.

I know he pitched better in the beginning of the season so it’s actually worse lately but it’s not like he was going to win the Cy Young award every year of his career.

Daniel Turpen is a Giant Beaver

by fwoty oz on Jul 21, 2010 4:31 PM PDT reply actions

WHAT!!! 20 CY YOUNGS OR HE SUX!!!

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jul 21, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Ubaldo's had a few bad starts too. He must be broken too.

by fantastical on Jul 21, 2010 6:45 PM PDT reply actions

Honestly I think the blisters/split finger nails

is the main culprit. After that first Furcal at bat I knew Lincecum wasn’t alright, I knew this was going to be a bad start. The wacky pitches as someone else mentioned kind of confirm that it had something to do with his hand and not his arm or something with his delivery.On top of that it’s clear that that the Pitch/fx was running a bit cold that night, so I’m not concerned, and neither should you guys here, that he will have trouble hitting 90 from here on out.

Look guys before anyone panics let’s remember that Lincecum had a DOMINANT April, but then this blister thing started happening and he has been on/off between starts. The problem is that Lincecum with this hand injury is still a great pitcher (check out his xFIP) so the Giants can’t afford to give him a couple starts off during this pennant race (although I probably would because his future is more important than the team is this year IMO.) I’m confident Timmy will eventually heal and return to his CY YOUNG status, let’s all root for Timmy and give him our support through this modest rough patch.

by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jul 21, 2010 10:20 PM PDT reply actions

Using months as time periods for evaluating players is completely arbitrary and capricious

And when you are evaluating a pitcher, it is even worse as he may only have 4 (July), 5 (June), or 6 (May) starts. It is too little to evaluate a guy on.

Also, an analysis like this basically assumes that Timmy was going to be a Cy Young pitcher every year for the rest of his career, which nobody has the right to expect. He is still a VERY good pitcher this year. Is he going to win the Cy Young again? No. But that is fine.

If Timmy gets his walks down, he will basically be the same pitcher he has been, and we can all go back to worrying about Velez or some shit.

/auto-defenestrates

by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jul 21, 2010 10:49 PM PDT reply actions

Dave Cameron is getting lazy

That article was shit.

/auto-defenestrates

by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Jul 21, 2010 10:52 PM PDT reply actions

what?

you don’t think claiming the sky is falling based on one start, while barely mentioning the complete game shutout his previous start and disregarding the 10 K, 2 walk performance the start before that qualifies as great analysis?

by FluLikeSymptoms on Jul 21, 2010 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions