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Around SBN: Full Coverage of 2012 Coke 600

D Train's Next Stop: Fresno

From Facebook: San Francisco Giants Giants signed LHP Dontrelle Willis yesterday to a Triple-A Contract.

I've always liked the kid, and while I don't think it's likely that he'll "figure it out" and regain his early career form, I sure as hell am rooting for him.

 

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This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I think Sabean read the post about the Giants not having enough African American players.

I’m happy to have D-train. Low risk move.

B. Molina grounded into double play second to first, B. Posey out at second.....Ron Wotus stabs Bengie with a broken bat as he returns to the dugout.

by The Thrill on Jul 15, 2010 4:40 PM PDT reply actions  

That depends.

If he’s in Fresno, zero-risk move. if he’s in San Francisco, high-risk move.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 15, 2010 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Any scenario which results in Willis taking the mound in San Francisco this season is almost certainly a bad one for the Giants.

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 15, 2010 4:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Sometimes I wish the Zito/Soriano thing had legs

I mean, Soriano’s contract is bad, and we’d regret it in the future, but this season does feel like a win now one, and Soriano’s bat and legs would do more for us right now than Zito.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 15, 2010 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

no!!!!!!!!!!!

Sometimes, there's a man...well, he's the man for his time and place.

by I'm_a_Man on Jul 16, 2010 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Skaldheim!

Long time no see! Good to see you posting here.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jul 15, 2010 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I lurk, therefore I am.

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 15, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

And thanks

Always nice to be remembered, man.

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 15, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are you still doing your blog? I haven’t gone in a loong time.

Back on the market.

by positiveuphemism on Jul 15, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nah

You haven’t missed a thing.

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 16, 2010 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

W00 W0000000000

All aboard the D-Train to San Francisco, with a permanent stop in Fresno.

Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard

by SoFa King Mike on Jul 15, 2010 4:42 PM PDT reply actions  

fulton mall, here we come!

by Fresburg on Jul 15, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Somehow . . .

. . . that nickname always suggests “Marrakesh Express”. No reason, no logic.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe Tidrow can fix him?

by robertee on Jul 15, 2010 4:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Great minds

I posted a similar comment in the fanshot

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jul 15, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

what's a fanshot

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
Adopting Denny Bautista until someone tells me he's already spoken for.

by delorean on Jul 15, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

where this post should be
:P

Proud parent of the new dominant pitching sensation out of San Diego State University.

Refocused on baseball. Sharks hockey: torture.

by beat_la_25 on Jul 15, 2010 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then why can't Tidrow work on players with more upside and less downside?

Willis is a D – TrainWRECK.
The man has an ongoing mental situation which has been chronicled well before the Blanks picked him up.
Now, MAYBE that’s under control but his record of recent pitching disasters is fresh.

Folks like to blat about blocking prospects at the MLB level – that doesn’t happen in the minors?
He’s going to take the mound…and take innings away from someone else’s development. Not that his taking some innings is going to ruin any careers, but what’s the point? Hey, maybe Randy is having second thoughts about all the free time he has on his hands.

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 15, 2010 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Willis isn't blocking anyone worthwhile in Fresno.

Everyone knows that the real pitching prospects are in AA.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Jul 15, 2010 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's apparently in the works already

According to Chris Haft’s blog:

Based on conversations with three Major League scouts, Dontrelle Willis is a mess as a pitcher. So Dick Tidrow, the Giants’ vice president of player personnel who’s apparently going to work one-on-one with Willis, has quite a project on his hands with the once-celebrated left-hander who signed a Minor League deal with San Francisco.

by robertee on Jul 16, 2010 3:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

This

For all of the credit some people like to heap on Sabean for the Giants development of pitchers, it certainly appears that Tidrow has a lot more to do with this than he does. Apparently, Willis didn’t go to San Francisco because he’s from the East Bay, but so he could work with Tidrow. I think it’s a good move because he’s not blocking anyone in AAA and he has good stuff, if he can get the walks down, which is a true sign of mechanical issues if there ever was one, but I’d say there’s far less risk and more upside with Willis than there would be with drafting a high school pitcher.

"Triple A baseball isn’t very good. I’m going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big league."

by Giant Torture on Jul 16, 2010 4:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

This

Fulfilling your Gus Benusa needs since 2009!

by Giantsfan4life on Jul 16, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's a pretty sneaky move

I’m surprised that the Cards, Pads, or A’s didn’t beat us to it. They’ve all got excellent pitching instructors as well.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 16, 2010 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

where's that michael scott gif

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 15, 2010 4:57 PM PDT reply actions  

SABES START SITTING ON YOUR HANDS

Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.

by satyricrash on Jul 15, 2010 5:02 PM PDT reply actions  

haha

i laughed way too hard at that

Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper, beloved broadcaster and power hitting coach for the Giants.

by Giant Voodoo on Jul 15, 2010 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

This

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 15, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

lol walks

Eat your heart out, Todd Wellemeyer.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jul 15, 2010 5:26 PM PDT reply actions  

This never fails to amuse.

Somewhere in the minor leagues, Joe Paterson is pitching.

by imovermyhead on Jul 15, 2010 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just wait for the fans in Fresno to hear this

“Now replacing Dontrelle Willis, Alex Hinshaw”

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jul 15, 2010 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know you’re a nerd when a graph makes you literally laugh out loud.

by Evan on Jul 15, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

How far above the graph do you think it goes?

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jul 15, 2010 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree, it is pretty funny. The BB/9 line is all WHOOOSH

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jul 15, 2010 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

13.1 BB/9 is amazing

The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
"I told the family lovingly slide"

by thehavenot on Jul 15, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seriously, nobody's mentioned the BAY AREA TIES yet?

The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
"I told the family lovingly slide"

by thehavenot on Jul 15, 2010 6:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Wait, has anyone done a CHOO-CHOO-CHOOSE ME joke yet?

Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.

by satyricrash on Jul 15, 2010 6:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Perhaps . . .

. . . because this really isn’t very funny.

The best case is that he’s a LOOGY, which limits the scope of damage. The worst case—and, sad to say, one of the likelisest—is that the team trades one of the current starters and replaces him with Willis. In between is the case where they trade a starter and plug Wellemeyer back in, keeping Willis in the pen but not as a LOOGY.

None of those are in the least amusing.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 15, 2010 6:28 PM PDT reply actions  

If the team trades a SP and replaces him with Wellemeyer or D-Train before JOEY, they’ve lost their minds.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jul 15, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's like your avatar was custom made for EVERY comment you make

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 15, 2010 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I had that same facial expression when I heard about this deal.

Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience

by Lars The Wanderer on Jul 16, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

I thought "AAA Contract"

means he’s playing in Fresno, in which case what?

"Bochy said there was nothing wrong with Buster Posey. He thought Eli Whiteside had a better chance of scoring on a gapper...Bochy said he might have had Whiteside try to steal second"

"What do I want you to do? What are you doing in the National League?"- John McGraw

"117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"- carp (paraphrased)

by natteringnabob on Jul 15, 2010 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Fresno" . . .

. . . as in “Pat Burrell plays in Fresno”.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 15, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yes, I can’t see any reason why the team would sign a FA like this just to play in AAA. Sure, they’re “taking a flyer,” but they have to have some belief that this guy could make a difference with the big squad, given some time to develop in AAA. Like I said yesterday, it’s not as if they’re trying to help Fresno make a run at the pennant (or whatever you get in AAA). It’s possible he’ll be so bad even in AAA they’ll end up releasing him at the end of the year, but he is there now so they can get a look at him.

by kdl on Jul 16, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

D-Train a LOWGY
The best case is that he’s a LOOGY

But more likely, he’s a LOWGY—Lefty One-Walk GuY

by WooIsMe on Jul 15, 2010 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

One?

2.284
W/HIP it BAD!

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 15, 2010 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t know why, but I’m really pumped about this for some reason. If he sorts his head out, I’d be great to get a good season or two from him.

by Scottsdale on Jul 15, 2010 6:37 PM PDT reply actions  

+1

I think he’s toast, but if he wants to play bad enough to go to Fresno, I’ll root for him.

Also, I hope he takes a lot of BP. I remember him mashing a triple off the scoreboard at Mays Field in his rookie or second year. Maybe he’s a reverse Lance Niekro.

"Bochy said there was nothing wrong with Buster Posey. He thought Eli Whiteside had a better chance of scoring on a gapper...Bochy said he might have had Whiteside try to steal second"

"What do I want you to do? What are you doing in the National League?"- John McGraw

"117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"- carp (paraphrased)

by natteringnabob on Jul 15, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've always liked him

He was hosed in CY a long time ago. He could add some real flair, if his mechanics/mentality can be fixed.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 15, 2010 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

The triumph of hope over experience.

And considering the experience, it’s quite a triumph at that.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 15, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, this is cool. He probably won’t ever find what he once had, but it’s not a bad gamble.

by Evan on Jul 15, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Low risk, potentially (although pretty unlikely) medium reward. I like it.

If anyone can turn around a pitcher like Willis, it’s Dick Tidrow. Being close to home can’t hurt, either.

"I could hear the angry MCC cacophany in my head."--Oldjacket, 7/4/10

by Kitspool on Jul 15, 2010 6:44 PM PDT reply actions  

I’ve always kinda liked the guy so I hope he can regain his old form.

by withclubsauce on Jul 15, 2010 7:03 PM PDT reply actions  

They should be trying him in the field

That hombre can hit even if he can’t pitch.

by dprodigy19 on Jul 15, 2010 8:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Jesus friggin' CHRIST, what's the Giants' mindset?

How many Wellemeyers do we need?
Did they take NO notice of how he SHIT THE BED in Arizona?
 If effective pitching ISN’T a prerequisite to be signed – and apparently it’s NOT – why didn’t we sign Gagne?
 HE’S DONE.
– end of rant –

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 15, 2010 8:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Wonder if you would have had the same reaction if he weren’t a Dback at one point.

by Natto on Jul 15, 2010 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know my Blankhate, Nat.

But no, I gave the ’Pit the same business when they took him.

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 15, 2010 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe a little less.

It’s not like I want them to, you know, succeed or nothin’.

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 15, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can't tell if you're serious or not

Because this kind of rant has sfgiants.com written all over it.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 16, 2010 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not surprising.

Nothing I’ve ever posted is understood here.

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 16, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sorry. That was whiny.

Hadn’t had breakfast (Chocolate shake with a banana in it) but what really drove my mood was not being able to get the MLB – TV archived game going. It’d play for five seconds then freeze.

The solution? The Mets feed.
Why IT works as opposed to the CSNBA is beyond me. But whatever.

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 16, 2010 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Blessing in disguise.

At least you don’t have to listen to FP.

by kaliber on Jul 16, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

6th inning

They bring up Bochy’s hat size.
One of the largest in MLB, 8 3/4.
How when he played for the Mets they didn’t have a batting helmet big enough so they shipped in his minor league helmet.

Keith Hernandez: “8 3/4? That’s huge! Buckethead!

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 16, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Giants pick up player I never, ever liked. Except now he really sucks. Awesome!

Actually, I couldn’t be more “whatever”.

by chilibean_3 on Jul 15, 2010 8:49 PM PDT reply actions  

D-Train!

I always liked that guy and I’m glad he’s one of us now.

I don’t hold out a lot of hope that he’ll get his mojo back, but it would sure be cool if he did. He’d look great in orange and black.

"That sort of thing only happens to white people."
- Kirby Puckett joking about the fairy-tale nature of his friend, Cal Ripken Jr., homering in his final All-Star Game

by achiappanza on Jul 15, 2010 8:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Always liked him.

If he can make it back to the bigs, Rags can help him…I think he could even make the starting rotation.

@chilibean: why didn’t you EVER like him?

by Greg Litton Fan on Jul 15, 2010 9:12 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m guessing his stupid Hinshaw-esque hat.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jul 15, 2010 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Never liked him as a talent. Even when he was pitching crazy good something about watching him made me feel like it was all smoke and mirrors and it wasn’t going to last. Clearly I am a genius.

by chilibean_3 on Jul 15, 2010 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Torn

I’ve always like Dontrelle, so I’m happy he’s a Grizzly. But I really do fear that if he has two decent appearances in Fresno he’ll be on the bus to SF. And I don’t think that will end well.

In other words, pretty much what everyone else already said.

by taliesin on Jul 15, 2010 9:41 PM PDT reply actions  

this, plus

I’m afraid two decent starts from D-Train could equal Sanchez for Hart. I like the move as long as that isn’t the next one.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jul 15, 2010 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

The fear is coming clear

My dear
The fear is here

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Jul 16, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

I totally forgot that Dontrelle was a great pitcher at one time

His 2005 season…I did not remember that.

The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
"I told the family lovingly slide"

by thehavenot on Jul 15, 2010 9:44 PM PDT reply actions  

I saw the game he pitched in Angels Stadium. He was awesome, but unfortunately Vlad was better that day.

by Natto on Jul 15, 2010 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I take it Noah never did reschedule that audition, eh?

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 16, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

/whispers

lefty

Mark DeRosa just got the damn surgery.

by oldjacket on Jul 15, 2010 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

like I said, LOL

The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent

by hokysmksbw on Jul 16, 2010 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dear Mr. Willis:

Can you at least get lefties out?

Signed,
McCoven (and lowered expectations)

by Ed Jew on Jul 15, 2010 10:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Who fucking cares? It’s a minor league deal. Even if they do put him on the team and he flails, they’re at least not wasting a ton of money on him.

by ololo3 on Jul 15, 2010 11:07 PM PDT reply actions  

sure, but a couple good minor league starts could convince them to move Sanchez.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jul 15, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, if they can get someone good like Prince Fielder, I wouldn’t be opposed to them moving Sanchez. Someone like Corey Hart on the other hand…

Hmm. Well, I hadn’t even considered that point, so now I am a bit more worried about the Giants getting Willis. If he does good it seems just as (or even more likely) to hurt them as help them. That’s freaky.

by ololo3 on Jul 16, 2010 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well at least they sent him to AAA, so they do know he’s not a good pitcher.
(really? nobody made that joke yet?)

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jul 15, 2010 11:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Willis isn’t blocking anyone worthwhile in Fresno.
Everyone knows that the real pitching prospects are in AA.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Jul 16, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions

womp womp.

Thing A

"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud

by sam23 on Jul 15, 2010 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I will root for near any player if they have an awesome nickname like D-Train

wooo woooooooooo

Status: Feels so broke up. Wants to go home. || Still boycotting Johnsonville and Giants souvenirs or ballpark foods for repossessing my K Wall in right field.

by GiantBrass on Jul 16, 2010 12:04 AM PDT reply actions  

Willis was one of my favorite players just a few years ago. I’m crossing my fingers that he’ll somehow turn into a useful pitcher, if not the same heights he once attained.

by Natto on Jul 16, 2010 12:45 AM PDT reply actions  

I was reading this guy’s stat lines and discovered that he’s only 28 years old. It seems like he’s been playing forever. Man, if he’s not even 30 yet, I REALLY don’t have any problems with this signing. He may be having problems with his mechanics/etc, but he’s most certainly not washed up, so I think it’s really good the Giants are taking a chance on him. It was only like 5 years ago that he was winning 22 games for Florida. How quickly we all forget…

by ololo3 on Jul 16, 2010 1:33 AM PDT reply actions  

No, we don't.

We remember that he has pitched eight years in the majors and had one good season (2005). The rest—for those who do not forget—ranged from pretty poor to nightmarish.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

He had a good year in 2003

And he has good stuff, if he can learn to harness it and not turn the game in to a walk-a-thon. I agree that there’s always the risk that the Giants will see a couple of good starts and make a stupid decision as stupid people are prone to do, but if you remove their stupidity and inject a little common-sense it’s not a bad move. Unlike Wellermeyer who has good stuff for batting practice, Willis has upside and that’s coming from someone who loathes the FO and never really liked anyone with stupid nicknames who are overly flashy.

"Triple A baseball isn’t very good. I’m going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big league."

by Giant Torture on Jul 16, 2010 4:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Really? I wouldn’t call any of these seasons “pretty poor”. In fact, I would call most of them fairly good.

2003: 160.2 IP, 3.45 FIP, 3.3 WAR
2004: 197.0 IP, 4.01 FIP, 2.8 WAR
2005: 236.2 IP, 2.99 FIP, 6.2 WAR
2006: 223.1 IP, 4.31 FIP, 2.9 WAR

If you think 03, 04 and 06 were ‘pretty poor’, then you have impossibly high standards for pitchers.

I am not particularly excited about Dontrelle Willis and I don’t think he will contribute much to the Giants. But don’t undersell the beginning part of his career – he was a very useful pitcher for his first four years.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

'03

3.3 WAR in 160 IP, is pretty damn good. Plus he’s done well in the post season in the past. I’m not saying he’ll challenge Timmy, but if they deal or lose a pitcher in the next year or two, 3 WAR is pretty damn good out of a #5 starter.

"Triple A baseball isn’t very good. I’m going to tell you that right now. Especially from a pitching standpoint. Anybody who can pitch is in the big league."

by Giant Torture on Jul 16, 2010 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, love that Jethro Tull!

Oh no, no, we won’t give in, let’s go living in the past

Whoops, wrong thread.
Or is it?

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 16, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Actually, with all the WAR references in this thread, you should’ve quoted something from War Child. Probably “The Third Hurrah.”

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Jul 16, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

jponry is right on with this. Willis was extremely solid his first four years, although he was only dominant in ‘05. But, he won 14 games his first year, and won over 10 games the next 4. In ’03 through ’06, the lowest ERA he had was 4.02 in ’04. Like jponry says, don’t undersell the beginning of his career.

by ololo3 on Jul 16, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jponry sockpuppet account found.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jul 16, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

EXPOSED!

Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jul 16, 2010 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

You measure your way . . .

. . . I’ll measure mine. OK, 2003 was sort of OK; the rest, no.

As to “good stuff”, a favorite old saying herabouts is that The trouble with great young arms is that so many of them come attached to shitty young pitchers.

Granted, his LHB/RHB splits are jaw-dropping. Maybe he might have some use as a LOOGY, but I for one am not enamored of having a guy eating a roster spot to pitch to at most one man in a game. Guys who have significant splits still need to be able to at least stand up straight against opposite-hand batters, and Willis is not such a pitcher.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Could you explain to me why 2003 was only “sort of OK” and why the rest were poor? Because I am seriously not seeing it. And you aren’t giving any good reasons why I should be looking past his ERA/IP/FIP/WAR numbers.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

True.

I try not to get bogged down in subsidiary discussions of rating metrics. I have enough trouble over TOP, because it is not well known, though as accurate as it gets; even less known, by far, is TPP (“Total Pitching Productivity”, a weak name made only to parallel TOP), which is very close to being the opposing batters’ TOP against a given pitcher.

The TPP evens out one sort of luck, the distribution of events (hits, walks, &c), but does not attempt to correct for BABIP (doing so is a project long on the back burner, but not likely to get much farther as it’s a good bit of work and for me this stuff is scarcely even a hobby any more, much less a profession with pay).

All that said, Willis’s TPPs are:

Year   TPP    ERA
2003 660 3.30
2004 741 4.02
2005 537 2.63
2006 771 3.87
2007 965 5.17
2008 1241 9.38
2009 1090 7.49
2010 1387 6.85
2010 912 4.98

The TPP is a slighly idealized (IBBs are discounted) version of about how many runs a staff of clones of the man would give up in a season. So 660 and especially 537 are pretty good numbers, but 741 and 771 are not so good, and the rest are dreadful.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, I still don’t really see why I should use this over the more transparent metrics that are more readily available to me, but thanks for expanding.

Is this comparable to ER or R? Because both 741 and 771 would have been above average in comparison to the league average number of runs given up by National League teams in 04 and 06. But if you’re talking ER, then obviously things change.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, it's total runs.

With, again, the caveat that IBBs are stricken (the metric was designed to measure performance without managerial interference, which is why the TOP correspondingly strikes sac bunts and SB/CS).

The only place I use all real-world stats, to get real-world numbers, is on the all-teams status page of my site.

As to a reason, why I like it is that the full equation (that is, with no minor stats stricken) is as accurate as it gets for projecting runs from line stats, at least at the team-season level. In a given season, BABIP may affect what the runs yielded were (for instance, in 2005 Willis’s BABIP was .288), but—for pitchers—not usually by much over a full season. (But I just noticed that in his rather hideous 2008, his BABIP was a stunning .219; think what he’d have posted with a .300 BABIP!)

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Could you comment, then, on the fact that the TPP numbers for Dontrelle in 04 and 06 are above average in comparison to the league average in runs allowed by NL teams in those years? I have a hard time thinking of those results as “very poor” when that is the case.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure.

Leaving off IBBs slightly improves the number; I no longer remember by how much, but say 10 runs. His 2004 is thus just about exactly league average, which I described as “not so good” and I’ll stand by that for describing a possible addition to a team wanting to win things. His 2006 is a hair worse than average for that year, and ditto comment.

His career thus runs something like, good, average, very good, average, bad, nightmare, nightmare, nightmare, bad.

The necessity for this addition thus escapes me.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am not arguing for his acquisition – I don’t see the point, although his numbers versus LHP

But I took umbrage with characterizing league average seasons at 190-220 IP as “pretty poor” – because they are really not.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

uh I dropped this

“his numbers versus LHP are intriguing”

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

oh dammit

Left handed HITTERS

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 16, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not equivalent:

"pretty poor" /= "not so good"

Granted, when you lump the rest up together, they amount to pretty poor, so I should have distinguished individual years. Also, in honesty, I forgot that 2006 was such a bad year for pitching overall.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 16, 2010 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Your original quote
We remember that he has pitched eight years in the majors and had one good season (2005). The rest—for those who do not forget—ranged from pretty poor to nightmarish.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 17, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

In fact, the young Dontrelle was just as good as Matt Cain — their stats are remarkably similar. Both came up to stay at 21, though Cain had a cup of coffee beforehand. Willis averaged 204 innings per season through his first four years with an ERA+ of 121; Cain averaged 206 with an ERA+ of 124. Both were a little lucky by FIP, and luckier still by xFIP.

Then, fingers crossed, their paths irrevocably diverged …

by Evan on Jul 17, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

You measure your way . . .

. . . and I’ll measure mine. Cain has never in his career had a TPP of 700 or over; Willis has in all but two seasons.

Cain’s first season, though stunning, was rather brief, so we’ll give Willis the benefit of the doubt and start with 2006 as Cain’s first “real” season.

Sea.  Cain  Willis
1st:   618    660
2nd:   611    741
3rd:   694    537
4th:   581    771

I’m too lazy to normalize those to league averages, but no matter: I’d scarcely say they look comparable.

In 2005, pretty much every pitching metric for Willis was his career high, while his BABIP was his 2nd-lowest, almost 20 points below his career average. That is not a year likely to be representative of his abilities.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 17, 2010 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

That is why . . .

. . . I posted what is just above your reply.

To repeat from a yet earlier one: “His career thus runs something like, good, average, very good, average, bad, nightmare, nightmare, nightmare, bad.” That errs slightly, in that I carelessly counted his 2010 twice, for the two teams; it should be good, average, very good, average, bad, nightmare, nightmare, nightmare. Is that not essentially so?

If someone wants to argue that good, average, very good, average constitutes a great start to a career, so be it; I find it not worth hair-splitting over just what “great” (or its like) might encompass.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 17, 2010 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right, but my point is just that this conversation STARTED out of you saying that every season Willis has ever had outside of 2005 was “pretty poor at best”, which, yes, you have now tacitly admitted was wrong.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jul 18, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK.

If you like, i will openly agree that it was over-broad.

I still think that for a pitcher who is presumably good enough for a team serious about contending, it is not hyperbolic to say that a league-average season or two can be included in a long period broadly described as “pretty poor”. (Also, I did fail to notice how high “league average” was back in 2006, and his number there would normally have been nontrivially worse than average.)

So he had one great season, as universally accepted, one good season I should have noted, two mediocre seasons (the dictionary supports me on that description), and the rest bad to nightmarish.

As I said before, if someone wants to argue that good, average, very good, average constitutes a great start to a career, so be it.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jul 18, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I HAVE A REALLY STRONG OPINION ABOUT THIS

Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.

by rotorueter on Jul 16, 2010 9:56 AM PDT reply actions  

/sniffs

YOUR OPINION IS STRONG
BUT IT IS NO MATCH FOR MY RANT

I know the difference between wrong and right
Don't make no difference in the middle of the night.
- Robert Cray, "Consequences"

by Snakepitbanitsagasbabycanyoudigit on Jul 16, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bochy won't be able to hide his racism.

"We didn't win our independence from the British to watch Aaron Rowand hit this bad,"-KNBR caller.

by GovernorStephCurry on Jul 16, 2010 8:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Besides his pitching, he can lay down some pre-game funky grooves!

Oh yeah, I hear he’s a decent hitter, too. 2 HRs in one game against the Mets in 2006.

"It kind of gives everybody else out there who is not a big person the motivation and the inspiration that they know they can do it, too."--Tim Lincecum

by Timlincecum.com on Jul 16, 2010 10:48 PM PDT reply actions  

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