Gary Brown: Jacoby Ellsbury or Arturo McDowell?
I don’t want to alarm you, but the odds are slim that Gary Brown will ever be a good major leaguer.
Pause for dramatic effect.
Of course, that would be true of anyone picked 24th today. Look for yourself. The fourth-best player (in terms of wins above replacement) selected #24 overall in the 45 years of the amateur draft was this guy. Gary Brown is a set of keno numbers. Dream big, but don’t expect a thing. If I wanted to make enemies, I would hyperlink all of the steaming wrong that the draft tends to bring out of amateur draftniks.
There are a lot of things I don’t like about the pick. Even the scouts who love him think he’s a little raw at the plate. The Giants develop good young hitters like the 49ers develop good point guards, so this should be a fun combination to watch. Brown looks to hit, not walk, as he drew only nine walks this season. That’s just swell too, as the Giants don’t really care about silly freak stats like on-base percentage, so they aren’t going to beat the idea of plate discipline into Brown’s head.
But I’ll reserve judgment until he starts playing. Jason A. Churchilll writes this:
He may not get on base enough thanks to poor habits in working counts..
Somehow I doubt that Brown was constantly hitting from behind in the count, salvaging a .438 batting average with 0-2 hit after 0-2 hit. As Brown’s average went up, his walk rate dropped. He hit .292 with a .374 on-base percentage as a freshman, which isn’t a bad separation between AVG and OBP. But once a guy starts hitting .438 -- and especially when teams aren’t exactly going to pitch around his power -- there’s no sense in him trying to eke out a walk every single at-bat. Other than a couple of fluky seasons, Tony Gwynn usually had a walk rate pretty far below the league average, but no one ever said he had poor habits in working counts. Once Brown stops hitting .400, maybe the walk rate will climb again to an acceptable level.
So what am I trying to imply? That Gary Brown is the next Tony Gwynn? Ha. Not with this fugly swing. So maybe I don’t like the pick. And just so you can all laugh at this post in four years, here are ten players I wish the Giants picked over Brown:
- Bryce Brentz
- Austin Wilson
- Jedd Gyorko
- Cam Bedrosian
- Nick Castellanos
- Zach Cox
- Tony Wolters
- Cody Buckle
- James Paxton
- Stetson Allie
Maybe some of those guys will be around in the second round, and I can just pretend that the Giants took my pet player with the first-round pick and Brown with the second-round. I could dig that. Until then, all I can do is hope that the Giants are right about Brown being the best player available at #24. And I’m certainly not going to hop up and down, holding my breath until I turn blue at the pick. That guy you wanted? He isn’t going to make it in the majors. Your second choice? Him neither. A wise, wise computer once bleeped this:
I’m pretty sure the best way to not look stupid in the future is to not post in draft day threads!
Well put. Now load up Celery Man, you stupid computer.
258 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Also, I approve of Brown starting over Rowand tomorrow.
by Grant Brisbee on Jun 8, 2010 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions
@SavvySabes Choosing the right player in the draft and choosing the right draft beer both come down to the same thing: due diligence. BS #mlbdraft
rec'd
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, who has been resurrected and has returned to..(reads)...Fresno? And is also an outfielder now.
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
Brown
I think I’ve finally reached acceptance. I think he has a chance (offensively) to be Freddy Sanchez with speed (read: empty .300). I think his floor is Drew Macias. I think his likelihood is that he’s a 4th OF.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 12:24 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Drew Macias
I never get those “floors”. His floor is to have the bat knocked out of his hands in A ball and never make it to AA. Not to have an OBP of .400 as a 24 y-o in AAA.
I was promised lasagna.
TBH
Macias was the first name I thought of-I basically meant a 4-a OF who gets the occasional cup of coffee in the bigs due to speed & defense
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 4:15 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
On this team
everyone is a 4th OF
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, who has been resurrected and has returned to..(reads)...Fresno? And is also an outfielder now.
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
Also, I'm watching the game on demand
I just saw the end of the 7th inning. LOL Molina’s arm.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 12:26 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Andres Torres's catch was awesome
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 12:51 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I had Brown in the 75-100 range on my draft board. He’s going to have to be one of the best defenders in baseball and a serious power threat to compensate for his lack of patience.
An A’s draft pick out of high school (390th overall in 2007), he actually managed to lower his walk rate in each of his three seasons at Fullerton, though his 2010 power and contact improvements are promising.
I’ll be surprised if Brown turns into more than a No. 4 outfielder. And I’m with you Grant, there were quite a few guys still out there who I would have much rather had. This pick is worse than the Jackson Williams pick to me. The Giants have made some very questionable decisions with their early hitter selections over the last four years.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
I don't like the pick...
but it’s a far cry from Jackson Williams. If Brown is a plus plus defender he can justify this pick to a degree, although I have some questions about that myself.
I had this player as more of a 2nd round pick and I don’t like that he was taken over a Castellanos or Wilson. Oh well
by NeifiChicken on Jun 8, 2010 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
The Jackson Williams pick (and the Michael Tucker signing) was the nadir of the Giants development curve. Drafting Gary Brown is merely quirky. On the list of Brian Sabean’s sins, this doesn’t even crack the Top 20. It may, however, eventually make the Top 30.
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
my best friend goes to CSUF
and i’ve seen brown play a couple of times. i honestly don’t know what warrants the 1st round pick besides his speed and maybe his spray contact…
IN TIMMY WE TRUST
Tony Wolters
would be an excellent pick in round 2. Others to consider on Day 2
Micah Gibbs
Brett Eibner
James Paxton
Robbie Aviles
Justin Grimm
Yordy Cabrera
Griffin Murphy
Stefan Sabol
Aviles tore a ligament in his elbow
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 12:42 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Eh I think there are better, less risky arms available
I might take a flier on Aviles at the end of day 2 but I wouldn’t spend an early pick on him
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Brett Eibner!
Unfortunately, Eibner doesn’t fit the Sabean mold as a speedy player with no power and questionable bat control.
Does anyone else wonder if Sabean got a little upset over the glowing praise of John Barr and Dick Tidrow the last few years and decided to put his stamp obviously on this draft?
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
Late post is late
I don’t really like the pick and was really surprised that they picked him. I was thinking more along the lines of Castellano since Colon was surprisingly off the board early. The more I see Wolters the more I like him. I really really hope he is around by our next pick.
01.19.2010
r.i.p. buster posey
Wave them home Tim Flannery, wave them home.
by sanfrankid on Jun 8, 2010 12:55 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
I don't know who has twitter and follows Kevin Goldstein
Kevin_Goldstein
Just added “Talk about Gary Brown and stupid hatred for the fact that he doesn’t walk” to podcast agenda. about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
I think this will be interesting to listen to, whenever he gets to it.
Fate is inexorable
Hey, nice fake bunt.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
Has Rich Aurilia upside
Needs more batting glove, more scowl, more stepping out of the box with 2 strikes, 2 outs nobody on staring stupidly for sign from 3b coach.
Also more wasted noisy affected gimpy-dork gyrations in the box than an epileptic meth freak.
/drafting shitty hitters since 1986
/will see bigs at some point to justify ridiculous signing bonus sabean will authorize to prove “going with the youth movement”
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions
You might want to go with "since 1987"
In 1986, the Giants drafted Matt Williams.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
He had OPS+s of over 120 six of seven years for us, 1990-1996. Not chopped liver.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
OPS+ is over-rated. He hacked at slop teh nightly
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions
…and was a productive hitter regardless, which makes him a rare thing.
If you don’t like OPS+, we can always go with wOBA during that period:
1990: .351
1991: .350
1992: .294
1993: .376
1994: .382
1995: .438
1996: .370
Of course, our first round picks after that are sob-worthy: Mike Remlinger, Ted Wood, Royce Clayton, Steve Hosey, Eric Christopherosn, Adam Hyzdu, Calvin Murray, Steve Soderstrom, Dante Powell, Joe Fontenot, Matt White, Jason Grilli, Arturo McDowell, Nate Bump, Tony Torcato, Kurt Ainsworth…
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
He hit too many GIDP..wasn’t clutch and would have been worse if not fer kevin mitchell will clark chili davis and jeff leonard.
He was worse than feliz AND Alfonso
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
also not a good family man… too many wives and girlfriends.
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Okay, now you're just fucking with me!
So I’ll counter with the argument that, among all players who looked like they were 60 when they were rookies, he was the best.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
And apparently too much dancing
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
matt williams lady gaga ftw!
photshop please!
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions
He was also the creator of Roseanne!
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
John Goodman
role to be played by Bengie Molina
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions
/obligatory mention of seeing Mike Remlinger pitch a shutout in college a few weeks before the Giants drafted him
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
And his first start for the Giants in 91 was cg shutout against the pirates. I saw his second game against the cubs. The cubs were all bitter after the game saying he had nothing special.
Well maybe not, but he was good enough to hang around for 15 seasons or so.
Not bad for a guy who didn’t strike many guys out.
/wishes he had been born l/h
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure where Remlinger was drafted
And if it’s top 5 or something, it’s probably not the greatest pick. But the guy did have a pretty decent major league career. Him and Royce Clayton were miles better than anyone else on that list.
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 8, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
- overall.
Not a bad pick. But when he and Clayton are the best first round picks you have in a 15+ year run…
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
DAMMIT
Number 16 overall
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Remlinger?
You brought ’er, you Remlinger
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
Royce Clayton played in 2108 MLB games
He had a very good career considering he was a primarily a defensive asset.
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
The guy is so fast he turns singles into triples and doubles into inside the park homers
He once bunted for a triple He plays centers but makes catches on the foul lines. His vertical leap is so high that even the outfield wall in SF or Arizona is not safe from his leaping ability. He is so fast that one time he outran a ball in an attempt to get him in a rundown. With his speed we only need one outfielder. The other guys could all clog up the infield. He tags up from second base on a routine fly ball and scores. So lets give “Flash” a chance. He is faster than Darren Ford. He can beat out a routine groundball to Troy tulawinski. If he hit the ball exactly the way bengie molina hits it, he would be batting over 330. Speed kills.
stay thirsty, my friends
I like my beer cold ... my TV loud ... and my romosexuals flaming.--Homer Simpson
Stay speedy, Gary Brown
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
speed and acceleration is one thing. ok, maybe two things. but how does he stop? what is his turning radius? how does he handle around the corners?
...Dr. Vader will see you now.
He once won the Daytona 500 – without a car.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
He was once shot at point-blank range, but ducked. Then he ran after the bullet, caught up to it, and deflected it so it would hit Osama bin Laden.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
He once leaped over the fence to rob a home run during a game in Long Beach – even though he was playing in Fullerton.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
/not answering silly questions by doing the sillier C.N. meme thing
haha
...Dr. Vader will see you now.
Is this meant to be ironic?
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I haven't seen this one yet:
Baseball America: Brown has staggering speed, blazing down the line in 3.69 seconds on bunt attempts and 3.91 and 3.94 on full swings from the right side. Currently nursing a hand injury, Brown had a great 2010 season, hitting .438 for Fullerton. He’s a wonderful center fielder, with an average arm and brilliant fielding skills. He has improved steadily with the bat and figures to hit for average and some pop as a pro.
Daniel Turpen is a Giant Beaver
who do you think is fast in the MLs? Crawford? Bourn? Rajai Davis? Gardner? Ellsbury?
Gary Brown is as fast if not faster than these players. With some pop.
the next Al "Whitey" Federoff
Righty batters running To 1B
3.5—Mickey Mantle, Yanks
3.6—Phil Rizzuto, Yanks
3.6—Jim Busby, Senators
3.7—Johnny Groth, Tigers
3.7—Gil McDougald, Yanks
3.8—Bobby Avila, Indians
3.8—Al Federoff, Detroit
3.9—Jackie Jensen, Senators
3.9—Hank Bauer, Yanks
4.0—Billy Martin, Yanks
4.0—Allie Reynolds, Yanks
Johnny Groth was a decent centerfielder, .279/.352/.395, who was interesting because he may have been the fastest, worst basestealer in the history of the game, with a lifetime ratio of 19/42 SB/CS, for a percentage of 19/61=31%.
I like my beer cold ... my TV loud ... and my romosexuals flaming.--Homer Simpson
Mantle, of course, was a total freak.
from the left side he could do 3.1. He had chronic osteomyelitis, a bone infection in his leg, and ran with a limp for most of his career.
I like my beer cold ... my TV loud ... and my romosexuals flaming.--Homer Simpson
And, you know, he broke his leg in the WS trying to catch a bloop hit from Willie Mays
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions
AL in the 50's was station to staion
in 1952 Groth had his worst CS year with 10, but look at the top 10 in SB success
Stolen Bases
1. Minoso (CHW) 22
2. Rivera (TOT) 21
3. Jensen (TOT) 18
4. Rizzuto (NYY) 17
5. Throneberry (BOS) 16
6. Valo (PHA) 12
Avila (CLE) 12
8. Philley (PHA) 11
9. Coan (WSH) 9
10. Goodman (BOS) 8
Rosen (CLE) 8
Al Rosen is tied for 10th and he has fewer than NINE! May I suggest that Groth was most likely the victim of busted hit-and-run plays.
Now take a gander at the leaders in CS
1. Minoso (CHW) 16
2. Valo (PHA) 11
3. Groth (DET) 10
Avila (CLE) 10
Runnels (WSH) 10
6. Rivera (TOT) 9
7. Joost (PHA) 8
DiMaggio (BOS) 8
Priddy (DET) 8
Busby (TOT) 8
Minoso is +6
Rivera is +12
Valo is +1
Avila is +2
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
interesting because he may have been the fastest, worst basestealer in the history of the game, with a lifetime ratio of 19/42 SB/CS
Eugenio ? Is that you ?
Adopted Son:Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
With hand timing there’s actually an error of plus/minus .2.
Croix De Candlestick: You'll be a better person for reading
If it's hand timing.
I’d hope that most serious scouts are taping his performance then counting the frames. I don’t know if they are, but it would certainly lower my opinion of them if they weren’t.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Joey Gathright is very fast. So was Alex Sanchez.
Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.
When did they race?
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
Carlos Gomez is fast. Vrrrooooommmm!
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Jun 8, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
The absoluter disregard to plate discipline
is making this organization look pre historic. I mean can’t the management see how different our offense looks with guys that take pitches instead of free swingers. There’s an objective lesson in their face every day, yet still they seem to think that taking someone who has no semblance of plate discipline is going to work out.
Insanity – doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results/
Proud adoptee of Dick Tidrow the mastermind behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Buster Posey and many more. Also known as "The Reason".
Fixed
InsanityGiants – doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
taking a pitch you know you can hit is STUPID
especially in an amateur league
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
my son (turns 6 in a couple weeks)
is the only T-ball/Pony league player I have ever seen who takes pitches. Sadly, he is afraid of the ball when you throw it to him.
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
What you “know” you can do, and what you can actually do, are two very different things. And no one is advocating taking meatballs. You have completely missed the point.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
Back and Forth
Liked it (Fullerton kid, good speed, makes contact/high BABIP?)
Posted in fanpost
Hated it (Started listening to McCoven negativity and it wore me down.)
Like it again (reading reports, gap hitter with speed will play well in a 2B/3B park. also covering OF ground.)
The sky is not falling, maybe he can pan out, although first round "maybe" is a bummer. But the FO seems to do nicely with later round picks, so tomorrow might be fun.
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
I AM PAT BURRELLZ'Z DADDY! (wait, that doesn't sound right)
They don't seem to do to well with hitters in general
I understand that we’re probably overreacting, but the Giants have not been able to develop an all start position player in 17 years. There is obviously something they’re missing.
If this was a pitcher, I’m in. The FO knows how to draft and develop pitchers. But with the exception of Posey (who they just could not fuck up on even if they tried), the track record with hitters is so bad that I don’t but the whole Trust the FO line.
Proud adoptee of Dick Tidrow the mastermind behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Buster Posey and many more. Also known as "The Reason".
I read that as “maybe he can put out”.
Is that how Sabean chooses draft picks?
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Jun 8, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Good News/Bad News
According to my personal rankings the Giants had the worst draft of anyone in the NL West-on day 1 of course. The good news is no one had that good of a draft (in the NL West, IMO) and, hey, the dodgers have the toughest guy to sign in the whole draft.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Oh, and if you care
I think the NL Central had the best draft of any division.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
*AL Central
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Yeah I was doing some rankings on who had the best draft
and there were a lot of picks that I disagreed with
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Good drafts/bad drafts
NL West:
Dbacks: blew it by taking Loux so early, IMO. Better HS pitching prospects on the board, better college pitching prospects on the board…dumb. But I’ll take that, in a division rival.
Doggies: blew it by taking someone unsignable. I’ve even heard it whispered that they took him knowing that they couldn’t sign him. Of course, if they DO sign him, it’s a good draft, so I’m crossing fingers they don’t….
Madres: Meh. Neither amazed nor horrified by this pick.
Rox: I like Tago a lot, depends on the signability of Parker. Great if he signs, bad if not…
Us: From an objective standpoint, I don’t think that Brown at 24 is a horrible overdraft. I think it’s a small-moderate overdraft, but not horrible. I do think that it’s a bad pick for the Giants, for several reasons. First, the Giants haven’t done a good job of turning ‘raw’ athleticism into professional hitters, so not a good match there. Second-plate discipline-Brown doesn’t have much, and the Giants aren’t good at instilling it….yuck again. Third-power-not much of it. Which all leads me to this conclusion: Brown has the potential to be a really good defensive center fielder, but offensively, his value is going to rest on being able to hit for average (since he doesn’t walk or hit dingerz). He has a funky swing, and I’m not convinced he WILL be able to hit for average. Ergo, I do not like this pick.
Also, we left better hitters on the board (Cox, Brentz, Castellanos, Parker) to take Brown.
Frankly, I’d rather we took Stetson Allie than Brown.
So my fear is that Gary Brown,
Nice sentence fragment there.
Please ignore my last line of text. ;)
Nice tease
“…Details after the game!”
"Row(and) will come out of this. You stay with your guys and he is one of our guys." - Bruce Bochy 05-31-10
"...and with Titanic's transverse bulkheads and watertight doors, it renders this vessel practically unsinkable." - "Shipbuilder" magazine, 1912
Calling Brown's swing "funky"
is a high compliment in reatltionship to what it should be called.
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
Yeah that's a good summary
The grades I gave out were:
SD: B+
LAD: C: (A if he signs, F if he doesn’t)
Col: B-
Arz: C
SF: C-
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 2:40 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree, mostly.
Colo deserves the same caveat with Parker that the Doggies have with Lee. Nice job, if they sign both guys.
I think SF had a better draft than AZ. It’s one thing to make an iffy pick at the back of the first round. It’s quite another to make an iffy pick with pick 6. I think Loux over Sale was pretty bad. So I might give SF the C, and AZ a C-/D+. I think they messed up.
Other than those caveats, I like your grades.
Another reason this pick confuses me
Is that we already have 3 guys that have similar skill sets to Brown in McBryde, Ford & Peguero. I dunno, maybe I haven’t reached acceptance yet.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 2:32 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Ford is the opposite of him as a hitter, with good discipline and bad contact skills.
I was promised lasagna.
I meant skillset in a very general way
Like potential leadoff hitter-I mean individually none of the 3 are great comps but they’re all kinda similar.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 2:37 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
And even that’s arguable. He was never particularly good before last year, and right now he’s hitting .264/.289/.383 as a 22 y-o in A+.
K/BB: ignore it, and you’ll only make it angrier.
I was promised lasagna.
What makes you think
The Giants will be more successful at developing Brown than they were with those 3 guys?
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 4:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Peguero and Ford were both top 10 prospects
And McBryde was a top 15 prospect
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 12:35 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
When was Ford a top 10? Anyway, Ford was an 18th round pick and McBryde was a 5th round pick, so it’s not like you can fault the Giants for not developing them into major leaguers. Especially considering Ford only got to the Giants in his 4th year in the minors.
Same with Peguero. It’s not like he was a big Latin prospect they signed for a few millions but then screwed up. He was with the team for a while without anyone being aware of him, then had one nice season (with an awful K/BB), and now he’s back to earth.
I was promised lasagna.
Anyway, tomorrow I want
A high upside pitcher in the 2nd (Cole, Allie, Paxton etc) and Andrelton Simmons in the 3rd.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jun 8, 2010 2:53 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
He hit .292 with a .374 on-base percentage as a freshman, which isn’t a bad separation between AVG and OBP. But once a guy starts hitting .438 — and especially when teams aren’t exactly going to pitch around his power — there’s no sense in him trying to eke out a walk every single at-bat. Other than a couple of fluky seasons, Tony Gwynn usually had a walk rate pretty far below the league average, but no one ever said he had poor habits in working counts. Once Brown stops hitting .400, maybe the walk rate will climb again to an acceptable level.
His walk rate was still below the MLB average that year, and the year after that (when he hit .340) it was already terrible. I think it’s safe to say he is a hacker.
Also, I guess I’ll be the first to say this: Tony Gwynn very clearly had a serious problem working counts.
I was promised lasagna.
A hacker?
The guy has 12 strikeouts this season against 9 walks. That’s a 5.7% strikeout rate against at-bats this season!
He’s certainly not patient, but the opposite of that isn’t a hacker. He is obviously not swinging and missing. I’d think a hacker is a guy who does the swinging and missing. At least when this guy swings, he’s hitting the ball (and, by looking at the average, hitting the ball and getting hits by doing it).
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Check out the new look of SFDugout.com•
by BruteSentiment on Jun 8, 2010 3:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you want to rethink that
Between 2007 and 2009, of 134 qualifying player, Bengie Molina was 10th best at not striking out. Feliz was 21st best. Pierzynski 23rd.
These guys are notorious hackers.
I was promised lasagna.
AJ's career BA is still over .280
and he hit above that SIX times in the last 9 seasons
If you hit over .280 but run like a slug, you should keep hacking.
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
If you have the time (and judging by your willingness to be this place’s village idiot, I’m guessing you do), check out, say, the all-time top 15 in runs scored. You’ll see that many of those guys were fast, but some weren’t – like Ruth (4th all times in RS), Musial (9th), Gehrig (10th), and Ott (12th). Many had a lot of power, but some didn’t – like Rose (6th), Anson (8th), Biggio (13th), and Collins (15th). Many had a high OBP, but some didn’t – like, uhh, hmm…Well, would you look at that – they all had a really high OBP.
If you get on base, you score runs. Even if you’re slow.
I was promised lasagna.
Excepting Bengie Molina.
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Jun 8, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Gotta add this...
While Keith Law admits that he isn’t “A huge fan of Gary Brown” and runs down his hitting skills…he still put the GIants on his ‘Best’ list on Day 1 since what Brown does bring to the table is a good fit.
I think that’s also taken relative to where he was taken, too. Everyone at that point had warts. So the Giants took a guy who is an 80 at an uncoachable skill, and had upside in a few other areas.
It’s not exciting, but I don’t think it’s a bad pick at all.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Check out the new look of SFDugout.com•
sipping the only cup of coffee Brown's going to get in the majors?
Oh snap!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I’m mainly hoping that he’s a great CF like that one scouting report said, and not just solid like the others said.
I was promised lasagna.
Meh.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I'm pretty meh as well
But that doesn’t mean I don’t like the pick, necessarily. Brown seems to have speed and contact skills, which are two things which, I think, can lead to the development of other skills at the major league level (AVG, mostly).
Sure, he doesn’t walk a lot. But he doesn’t strike out a lot either. An “empty .300” is a phrase I’ve always disliked, if only for the reason that hits are always more valuable than walks (though the degree to which this is true is under debate). I think Brown can be a .300 hitter, and with speed and defense, he could end up being an extremely useful player, and a value at #24.
My Son, fourth outfielder extraordinaire.
My rule for the 2010 Giants: Everyone with an OPS over .800 gets a pass.
Current Pass Recipients (50 PA min): Whiteside, Huff, Sanchez, Torres
An "empty .300" is a phrase I’ve always disliked, if only for the reason that hits are always more valuable than walks (though the degree to which this is true is under debate).
Two things:
1) Having good plate discipline and strike zone judgement don’t just give you walks – they make you a better hitter in other ways.
2) Part of “an empty .300” is millions of singes and not a lot of XBHs. Extra base hits are more valuable than singles. If you don’t have a lot of power (and Brown isn’t Duane Kuiper, but it doesn’t look like he has much power, either), and you don’t walk, it’s very unlikely you’re going to be a good hitter.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
And hits aren’t always more valuable than walks.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Yes they are
Even if you hit a single instead of walking, you are still forcing the defense to play, which means the potential for errors.
My Son, fourth outfielder extraordinaire.
My rule for the 2010 Giants: Everyone with an OPS over .800 gets a pass.
Current Pass Recipients (50 PA min): Whiteside, Huff, Sanchez, Torres
…and by drawing walks, you’re forcing the pitcher to throw, on average, more pitches.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Walks are advantageous, but hitting a scorching line drive single towards Raul Ibanez could lead to more bases than a walk.
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions
well, sure
I’m objecting to “ALWAYS more valuable than walks.”
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Well whenever you get a hit its never less valuable than a walk and you never know when someone is going to do their mimic Ibanez.
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions
HITS ARE ALWAYS MORE VALUABLE THAN WALKS.
Do you get an award for BB%?
I think not.
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
you can also force baserunning mistakes
by yourself or teammates.
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
Hits are usually more valuable than walks
Hits have the potential for errors, have the potential for extra bases for the hitter and anyone on base, and have the potential for RBI.
Walks make the pitcher’s pitch count go up real quick, and may cause him to be removed from the game prematurely. They reveal a degree of lack of control that may be exploited. Also, if you get enough of them in a row, you can score!
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
Sure, hits are more valuable than walks, but an overall line of .300/.330/.380 still isn’t going to be very useful.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I mean
it could be if he’s a plus-plus CF and baserunner or whatever.
But of course, it doesn’t really sound like he’s a bonafide .300 hitter anyway.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Hello, Francisco Peguero.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Yeahhhh, I feel like saying, “Well, if he hits .300 he’ll be a good player!” is never really a good sign when you’re talking about a prospect.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
The only Giants prospect I ever remember people saying that about who actually turned out good as Bill Mueller. And he had great plate discipline, which was an underrated skill at the time.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
The first time I saw Bill Mueller hit I thought ‘that guy is going to be a .300 hitter. I like it.’
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I had a subscription to BA in those days, and I became a fan of him based on his stats long before I ever saw him play, knew how his name was pronounced, or heard a scouting report on him.
(LOL nerd)
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
Of the pitchers who came up around that time, I was mostly a fan of Gil Heredia. Oops.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
I just saw him taking BP at the stick as a rookie and was like ‘who is this guy?’.
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Do you mean Batting Rehearsal?
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Back then we wore onions on our belts and it was called Batting Practice. We liked it. We loved it!
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
BattingHitting Rehearsal
That wasn’t serious was it? Can’t be. Nobody other than Bud Selig can be so fucked in the head. Almost as stupid as dictating that the AS Game will determine HF advantage for the World Series.
Next Week.
To honor D-Day veterans, MLB will be be firing artillery shells down on all boats attempting to enter McCovey Cove.
by E Ticket on Jun 8, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Two-Flap Helmet FTW !!
/still misses Mueller.
//ultimate lunch pail player
Adopted Son:Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
Nate Schierholtz!
"I just struck out looking three times, but in any other ballpark those would have been home runs." - Aubrey Huff
by howtheyscored on Jun 8, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
as I said in the other thread
I’m not going to freak out over a 24th pick, but this is pretty uninspiring.
And I’m less inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt because this seems so typically Giants. High batting average! Poor plate discipline! Good defense! Vroom! Lack of power!
It sounds like the type of hitter the Giants always seem to overvalue.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
I think the Giants have a decent handle on defense, which some organizations seem to forget.
That said, I am on record here with a ‘meh’ grade and a preference for Castellano or, if signable of course, Wilson.
by wcw on Jun 8, 2010 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Jacoby Ellsbury. Overrated?
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
Doubt he’s overrated this year!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Wait. What are you saying?
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I looked at his stats and they suck, so I imagined no one was saying he was very good. But apparently he’s been injured.
IDK who cares about the Red Sox?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I just never understood the “NOT INCLUDING JACOBY ELLSBURY IN HALLADAY TRADE” or any of the Ellsbury as a top prospect. And if that is the comp for this pick, well I would have rather gone with someone who dropped b/c of signability.
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Jun 8, 2010 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm just going to keep posting this in every Gary Brown thread
http://www.collegesplits.com/blog/20100518-how-few-walks-is-too.html
Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.
This pick sucks ass
It was basically a throwaway.
WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 8, 2010 8:21 AM PDT reply actions
______ can flat-out ______
Is my least favorite saying.
My Son, fourth outfielder extraordinaire.
My rule for the 2010 Giants: Everyone with an OPS over .800 gets a pass.
Current Pass Recipients (50 PA min): Whiteside, Huff, Sanchez, Torres
“Player X is a professional hitter.”
Because, well, duh.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing. Because all 50th Round picks go to heaven (or at least extended spring training).
Enjoy your free Fred Lewis, Blue Jays.
That at least has some meaning as a counterpoint to ‘undisciplined hacker’.
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
That at least has some meaning as a counterpoint to‘undisciplined hacker’.Giants Hitter.
Fixed
Adopted Son:Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
Silver lining
Yes, Brown needs to re-learn his mechancs, and he doesn’t seem able to work the count and accept a walk, but there is a silver lining.
Even with his bad mechs, and obsession to swing away at anything, he only struck out 5.4% of his ABs. So, we can legitimately hold out hope that he’s Panda #2, without the power, but with a much-lower K-rate.
In other words, it’s not statistically unacceptable for a player to not take many walks when he’s making consistently outrageous contact when he does swing (only K’s 5.4% of his ABs). When your getting on base at close to 50% of the time that you hit the ball, then taking a walk is not always the better option.
One more optimistic note. If Brown is as adept at bunting for a base hit as he appears, then getting on base via the bunt can actually be seen as tantamount to working a walk.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
At least he’s white. They’ll never expect it from him.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 8, 2010 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
From the fangraph's chat
Jeff Sackmann:
Brown’s walk rate basically means that he either (a) totally changes his approach, or (b) he would be a historically unique player if he makes the majors. I wouldn’t bet on either.
Considering how the Giants “develop” hitters, I would bet on “historically unique player” over option (a).
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Jun 8, 2010 9:50 AM PDT reply actions
I am 90% sure
Sabes is fucking with the Lunatic Fringe. 3.9% BB/PA? Really?
You can’t even argue that he’s scooping up a “new market inefficiency” because he picked him 24th! No other team was going to take him.
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
how do you know?
BA had him rated 24th on their board
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
And the boards have been universally wrong
So, what did they really know?
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
and what does zenbitz really know?
You can’t say shit like “no other team was going to take him” because you have no idea.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
yes it's true
I have no idea. I don’t even follow the draft. I was slavishly following Grant’s comment that he was a 2nd round talent.
What’s really funny is the above comment IS NOT SARCASTIC in the least!
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
Question
Does anybody know if Brown is going to be playing against UCLA this weekend? I’d like to see this fugly swing for myself.
He’s got a broken finger right now, so I think he’s out of action for a while.
by The Double Deuce on Jun 8, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
@Grant
The swing you chose a clip of was definitely ugly… and he looks like he has rickets in the batter’s box. But I saw other video clips of his swing and it looks great! I can tell he is going to hit a lot of line drives and hard ground balls with a wood bat in his hands. I think his swing looks great. Just not in that Youtube clip.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you
Everything I have seen of him shows his dancing motion in the box
How that made it to the first round of the draft is beyond me.
The guy looks more like James Brown.
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
I’m not getting what people are concerned about with his swing. Wiggling around while you’re waiting for the pitch is not an issue. As long as he’s in a good position when he beings his swing all the stuff before and after is irrelevant.
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
THe problem is his feet at least from what I have seen, never stop moving.
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
SABEAN LOL
SO TOOLSY I LOVE IT!
It’s funny how we all predicted some toolsy pick debacle, First guessing brisan sabean since 2003.
"The criticism was so brutal that Sabean was forced to declare, at a press conference, "I am not an idiot." Thus, the pattern of Sabean's relationship to his critics was established."
You know who rarely K'd and hated taking BBs?
However, in Mr. Coffee’s case, he batted in an RBI spot. His teammate Charlie Keller was the BB machine. And, had his career not ended so early, nerds would argue was better than DiMaggio because of it.
The money lies in the RBIs
-- Jeff Kent
Gary Brown, Carter Jurica
“Money has never been the problem”
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
This is good
4. Hidden stars
Beyond Harper — and, to a lesser extent, Taillon and prep shortstop Manny Machado, who went to the Orioles with the No. 3 pick — this draft had a much-discussed lack of likely future stars. The one player, according to Perkin, who could wind up being the best player taken Monday night was Cal-State Fullerton outfielder Gary Brown, who was chosen by the Giants at No. 24. “They usually go for a quick-to-the-majors pitcher, like a Tim Lincecum, but I think Brown is a great pick,” says Perkin. “He has electric talent, he’s very fast, he’s an impact player and he projects to be a much better hitter than people think. I think he’ll be the one people will look at 10 years from now and ask why there were 23 players picked in front of him.”
Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ted_keith/06/07/draft.learned/index.html#ixzz0qHzKMFuV
YOU EAT YOUR DAMN EGGROLL
I would love to believe this..
but it is from SI, so I will temper my enthusiasm.
Adopted Son:Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
I’m gonna go ahead and dwell on this point of view
Wayne Rooney, 1/27/10: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man
Green and Gold Till the Club is Sold- LUHG
How did Fullerton become such a baseball powerhouse? Good coach?
Wayne Rooney, 1/27/10: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man
Green and Gold Till the Club is Sold- LUHG
Alright, I'm going to say the name none of us wants to hear
David Eckstein with speed and defense.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
not really
and definitely not this year
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
6.6 career BB%
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Walked, past tense. Like, look at his college and minor league numbers. I don’t care what Eckstein is doing today. If you’re going to comp him to Eckstein, you’d want to look at what Eckstein did at the same age/level as Brown.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
even then
he didn’t have a crazy amount of patience. He also wasn’t hitting .440.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
He walked a shitload in the minors
280 times in ~2000 PAs.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
Mark Ellis didn’t have many walks in college. 58 in about 700 at bats. 3 years as a starter.
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
If you don’t look at this year (which i’m not because i can’t easily find his stats for some reason), but add in his cape cod league at bats, he has 59 BB in 688 AB
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I was having the same problem, here are Brown’s stats for this year: link
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
danke
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
How are you figuring on the power? I can’t find a link that has Brown’s career totals. This year he’s slugging .695 which is way up .465 of his first two years combined.
The Giants don’t fare well against pitchers.
DON'T USE ISO
ugh. Any player who hits .440 is gonna have a huge ISO, because ISO is biased towards high BA players. Use PF (TB/H). He’s currently sitting at 1.58 this year. (For reference, eckstein is around 1.25 for his ML career)
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
At a glance, I’m going to guess that Eckstein showed more power in college than Brown according to any metric you care to use.
donno about college
but career MiLB PF = 1.33
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
That isn't reference
You’re comparing college numbers to MLB numbers. What don’t you get about that?
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
well most people
don’t know how much power eckstein hit for in the minors. It’s a reference to what a slap hitter’s PF is, not a “BROWN = ECKSTEIN + POWA” argument. (which I was never arguing anyways)
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
i didn't
want to just throw PF (which most people aren’t familiar with, at least not familiar enough to know what’s good-average-bad) without some sort of reference. It’d be like telling your buddy who only knows slash stats about someone’s wOBA. Without some kind of reference, they’d be lost.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Power Factor sucks
Use contact ISO. Whereas PF ignores what happens when the ball is put into play and not a hit, cISO takes into account every plate appearance where contact was made. Conceptually, it’s far far superior to PF
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I'd be glad to
where can I find it?
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
but actually
I don’t really think it’s better if you’re ONLY concerned with how much “power” (ie, how hard the ball is hit, when it is hit) a guy has.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
It's basically
ISO but with AB-K in the denominator. I don’t think any site tracks it though.
I prefer it to ISO because cISO takes into account the type of outs you make. ISO unfairly penalizes guys with big power who strike out a lot. You’ll see players like Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds look better in the power department because it only focuses on plate appearances where there’s contact.
I prefer cISO to PF because according to PF, I can hit one home run in fifty plate appearances and ground out weakly to first 49 times and my PF will be 4. I think we should be measuring power based on every time contact’s being made, not just every time a hit is recorded.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
yeah, my only problem with it
is if instead of grounding out weakly 49 times, you knocked 49 balls to the edge of the track.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Hahaha, I should probably run some numbers
Or you. One of us I guess.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
If these are the terms I grew up with . . .
. . . they’re essentially the same thing: ISO is PF-1 or PF is ISO+1.
Power factor is just TB / H, whereas ISO (or the one I knew back in the day when people still used it) is [TB-H] / H.
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
the newfangled ISO
is slg – ba
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
Oh.
Almost the same: slg = ba * PF
So: slg – ba = (ba * PF) – ba = ba * (PF – 1)
In 30 years, I have never figured out what ISO (either definition) is good for. PF at least expresses something real: how hard does the guy hit the ball?
The components of a run-scoring calculation can be expressed many ways by many stats that can be algebraically transformed into one another, but the three dimensions I like are BB%, BA, and PF, because they answer three sequental real-world questions:
1. How well does he judge which pitches to swing at? (BB%)
2. How well does he do at hitting those he does choose to swing at? (BA)
3. When he does manages to hit one, how hard does he hit it? (PF)
Just personal preference . . . .
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Why is your stat so much bigger than mine?
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Jun 8, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
his power numbers are
how do i put this… not impressive.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
PF of ~1.5 is pretty close
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I think maybe Seth Podsednik at best?
Leadoff guy, fast as hell, can steal bases but won’t come close to 10 dingers in a season ever. But that warrants a late first round pick? OY.
Good thing drafting a bust in the 1st round of MLB’s draft really doesn’t hurt the team that much, maybe a few dollars lost but that just means selling more Panda hats and Pojerseys.
/Win the inning
//Renteria - Still not a VD but I crush a lot
///Willism is Realism
Sure it does, in the MLB draft
This isn’t the NFL where if you don’t get production from your first round picks pretty much every season you’re screwed. I really don’t think people are focusing enough on this:
Of course, that would be true of anyone picked 24th today. Look for yourself. The fourth-best player (in terms of wins above replacement) selected #24 overall in the 45 years of the amateur draft was Rich Dauer.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I'm Tired of This
Gary Brown may not have been the best first choice but he’s not bad. He would fit well in the ballpark with his hitting of gaps, speed, right handedness, etc. What I’m really tried of seeing is all this love of Cox. Those are the types of players who we should avoid. He’s a kinda big, left handed, no power (very low ISO hitting), and a relatively poor fielder. I’m serious, that guy’s a singles hitter. He was the most overrated player in the draft in my opinion. Besides, it’s the 24th pick in a not so strong draft year.
I like Brown, but he'sa clone of similar hitters we've hated in the past
At 24 i wouldve taken Yordy Cabrera, 6’4" SS/3b type, son of the tigers minor league hitting coach. He is 19, but maybe more willing to sign

by 






















