Gary Brown: Jacoby Ellsbury or Arturo McDowell?

I don’t want to alarm you, but the odds are slim that Gary Brown will ever be a good major leaguer. 

Pause for dramatic effect. 

Of course, that would be true of anyone picked 24th today. Look for yourself. The fourth-best player (in terms of wins above replacement) selected #24 overall in the 45 years of the amateur draft was this guy. Gary Brown is a set of keno numbers. Dream big, but don’t expect a thing. If I wanted to make enemies, I would hyperlink all of the steaming wrong that the draft tends to bring out of amateur draftniks.

 

There are a lot of things I don’t like about the pick. Even the scouts who love him think he’s a little raw at the plate. The Giants develop good young hitters like the 49ers develop good point guards, so this should be a fun combination to watch. Brown looks to hit, not walk, as he drew only nine walks this season. That’s just swell too, as the Giants don’t really care about silly freak stats like on-base percentage, so they aren’t going to beat the idea of plate discipline into Brown’s head.

But I’ll reserve judgment until he starts playing. Jason A. Churchilll writes this:

He may not get on base enough thanks to poor habits in working counts..

Somehow I doubt that Brown was constantly hitting from behind in the count, salvaging a .438 batting average with 0-2 hit after 0-2 hit. As Brown’s average went up, his walk rate dropped. He hit .292 with a .374 on-base percentage as a freshman, which isn’t a bad separation between AVG and OBP. But once a guy starts hitting .438 -- and especially when teams aren’t exactly going to pitch around his power -- there’s no sense in him trying to eke out a walk every single at-bat. Other than a couple of fluky seasons, Tony Gwynn usually had a walk rate pretty far below the league average, but no one ever said he had poor habits in working counts. Once Brown stops hitting .400, maybe the walk rate will climb again to an acceptable level.

So what am I trying to imply? That Gary Brown is the next Tony Gwynn? Ha. Not with this fugly swing. So maybe I don’t like the pick. And just so you can all laugh at this post in four years, here are ten players I wish the Giants picked over Brown:

  1. Bryce Brentz
  2. Austin Wilson
  3. Jedd Gyorko
  4. Cam Bedrosian
  5. Nick Castellanos
  6. Zach Cox
  7. Tony Wolters
  8. Cody Buckle
  9. James Paxton
  10. Stetson Allie

Maybe some of those guys will be around in the second round, and I can just pretend that the Giants took my pet player with the first-round pick and Brown with the second-round. I could dig that. Until then, all I can do is hope that the Giants are right about Brown being the best player available at #24. And I’m certainly not going to hop up and down, holding my breath until I turn blue at the pick. That guy you wanted? He isn’t going to make it in the majors. Your second choice? Him neither. A wise, wise computer once bleeped this:

I’m pretty sure the best way to not look stupid in the future is to not post in draft day threads!

Well put. Now load up Celery Man, you stupid computer.

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