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Giants ranked #2 in NL in Goofus' favorite team stat: OPS+ plus ERA+


Fun with numbers Goofus style!

I'm feeling good about The Giants going 12-6 after that misery of getting swept by the A's, so thought I'd look at some stats.

Earlier this season and especially last, we heard comments like "If only we had a league-average offense to go with this pitching" and it got me to thinking about team balance or lack thereof.  I tried to come up with a way to measure overall performance vs. the others...emphasis on "simple" because I'm not a numbers guy.

I had come up with adding a team's ERA+ to their OPS+ to get an overall ranking.  It treats pitching and hitting equally and doesn't account for defense, but it's a pretty quick down and dirty way to measure a teams ballpark-adjusted performance on an overall basis.

Among NL teams, the Giants are tied for first in ERA+ at 128. Their OPS+ is ranked 10th at 94 (just one point off the NL league average).  That overall score of 222 puts them in second place in the NL.

Here's the current rankings of the top 10:

1. STL 226

2. SFG 222

3. SDP 218

4. COL 217

5. ATL 209

6. CIN 208

7. NYM 202

8. WSH 199

9. (tie) CHC & LAD 198

League average is (ERA+ 101) plus (OPS+ 95) = 196.

I guess the point of this is that overall, we're pretty ok.  Expecting this team to continue to be "in it" isn't a reach.  Sure Burrell, Sanchez and Posey are hitting at unsustainable paces, but these season numbers are based mostly on games before they even joined the lineup. 

More fun Giants facts:

* They still have made the fewest errors in the league.

* Their 332 OBP is above league average and greatly improved from last year (.309)

* Their 266 BA trails only The Reds

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

Comment 110 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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OPS plus plus ERA plus plus anything else is a plus stat.

by Grant Brisbee on Jun 13, 2010 10:23 AM PDT reply actions  

/in before Cookyman tears down the logic behind this stat

by Grant Brisbee on Jun 13, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I love your icon!

Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.

by rotorueter on Jun 18, 2010 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

+1

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Jun 13, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

All I need is the air that I breathe…

They still have made the fewest errors in the league.

The infield probably has the least range in the NL. The lack of errors is not surprising.

But winning is good. I like when the Giants do that.

WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience

by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 13, 2010 10:33 AM PDT reply actions  

I wasn't impling they have the best defense in the world

…but when we signed Huff, you’d have thought he’d single-handedly drag us down with his errors at 1B. And if he played in the OF, it would be fire and brimstone time.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 13, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK then!

I guess I actually was implying they have the best defense in the world!

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

For what little it's worth . . .

. . . my private team-defense rating scheme also has them third in offense protection (behind the Padres and the Yankees); it is not park-adjusted.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jun 18, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Friendly scorer if you ask me

particularly for Bengie LessLeana. He should have about 10 passed balls.

I like my beer cold ... my TV loud ... and my romosexuals flaming.--Homer Simpson

by nogooddeed on Jun 18, 2010 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

So what you are saying is..

I should sell high?

Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry

by jctGamer on Jun 13, 2010 10:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, but a defense with Burrell in LF and Huff in RF

is begging for regression from its current defensive efficiency. We’re not going to have 4 starters with an ERA under 3.10 at year’s end.

Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Jun 13, 2010 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

That’s totally what Aadik said!

GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.

by groug on Jun 13, 2010 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I am not sure what the purpose of starting this discussion was

I mean, was it to have a discussion? Or that if you didn’t 100% agree with what Goofus posted, that means the Giants sucks and we should all find a different hobby?

WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience

by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 13, 2010 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

My new hobby is wood carving.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jun 14, 2010 3:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

I enjoy making photo collages.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jun 14, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

I enjoy making phallic collages.

Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, who has been resurrected and has returned to..(reads)...Fresno? And is also an outfielder now.

Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.

by scout6 on Jun 14, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Penis shadow puppets

WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience

by Lars The Wanderer on Jun 14, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

“This is no cave”
/millenium falcon “flies” out

The Magic is inside all of us.
Proud father of the man taking your hard-earned money.

by ResDog on Jun 14, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like philately. Which sounds dirty, but isn’t.

by Monkeyking42 on Jun 19, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, it is.

Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jun 20, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

/xanthan carves a canoe

Just get the damn surgery, Mark DeRosa.

by oldjacket on Jun 14, 2010 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know that's not what he said

…but the negativity sometimes here is just tiresome. when someone does well, it’s luck and when someone does poorly, they suck.

It seems like any time someone does well, there’s this certainty that they’ll regress, but that’s not always the case. Exhibit A: Andres Torres. Exhibit B: Juan Uribe.

Of course there are areas where the team is performing above what should be expected, but every team has those. It just seems like some people want to write off any Giants success as lucky and unsustainable. I’m not sure if it’s because they want to be right want Sabean/Bochy to be wrong or just don’t want to get their hopes up.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 6:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

To be fair

Watching one of the worst offenses in baseball for half a decade will make you wonder when the other shoe is going to drop.

This team is playing great ball right now. I’m enjoying it while it lasts, but I’m not going to be shocked if these guys regress both offensively and defensively in the next few months.

Maybe that’s “negativity”, but this franchise has brought that on itself IMO.

Pacifist ass-kisser

by otis29 on Jun 14, 2010 6:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

When you say the other shoe do you mean the pitching becoming crappy, too?

Cal Football: Some things, you just accept, repress, and move on.

by Spazzy Mcgee on Jun 18, 2010 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure everyone here loves Torres and Uribe. I’ve been beating the Uribe drum for like 1.5 years now!

XANTHAN WAS RIGHT!

I also don’t think it’s negative to worry about a potential OF with both Burrell and Huff playing D.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jun 14, 2010 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sure everyone loves Torres and Uribe now

…but you have to admit there was a lot of disdain around here for both of them for a long time.

Here’s the typical groupthink progression for guys like Uribe, Torres and Huff:

  • “Typical pointless Sabean signing!”
  • “Why is this guy even on the roster? We got young guys who are better.”
  • “I guess he’s an ok backup, but we’re screwed if he sees regular playing time.”
  • “SSS! He still sucks.”
  • “There’s nothing to suggest he’s this good. He’s just lucky.”
  • “I like him as a platoon player, but nothing more.”
  • “He’s still due for regression.”
  • “He’s our MVP! Why isn’t he in the lineup?”

The current candidate getting this treatment is Burrell. Sure, we don’t know how he’ll end up doing and whether he’ll have been a good pick up after just 28 PAs, but at the very least he’s giving the team some good ABs. I’m not spending much time looking at his numbers, but has anyone seen Burrell do anything in a Giants uniform that makes you think he belongs on the bench?

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

So what are you even complaining about? That people were wrong about Uribe and Torres? At first you were talking about what you perceive as over-negativity, but look at your “quotes” – "I like him as a platoon player, but nothing more", “We got young guys who are better”, “He’s still due for regression” – this isn’t over negativity. It’s not negativity at all, in fact. It’s just baseball discussion. The same people were also saying similar things (worse, actually) about Velez – why isn’t that something to complain about? Because they ended up being right?

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 14, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think an attitude that every player "sucks" until he proves otherwise is negativity

My point was that I think groupthink is too slow to give players credit for their success and too quick to write off players as “done”. Durham got the same treatment here in 2007.

It seems that people here look for reasons to prove the Giants are bad or will be bad.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

You’re right, it’s completely unreasonable to be skeptical at first about the performance of a 30+ year old minor league journeyman and a utility player with a career 80 OPS+ before joining the Giants.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare

by jponry on Jun 14, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have upgraded from skeptical to cautiously optimistic!

Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Jun 14, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think you’re grossly misinterpreting what (most) people are saying.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jun 14, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

It seems that people here look for reasons to prove the Giants are bad or will be bad.

CHEERING FOR FAILURE!

(I hate when people say that)

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jun 14, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Expecting future performance to usually fall in line with past performance is not being negative. It’s not being pessimistic. It’s being sensible.

Again, you bring up Durham as an example of people being wrong. Do you want me to also start looking for examples of you being wrong? I could do that. In fact, if we go back to your original comment about people’s tendency to always assume regression is due – I can guarantee you that for every example you can find of people expecting regression and being wrong, I’ll find three examples of people expecting it and being right. It’s not just how baseball works, or how statistics work – it’s how the world works.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 14, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think disdain is an overly negative word — I don’t think anyone has ever disdained Uribe or Torres (except maybe when Uribe messed up Sanchez’s perfect game last season). Torres is a particularity fascinating case since for so long he wasn’t very good. Kudos to the Giants for picking him up after his 2008 season in the PCL with the Cubs. Seems like good scouting to me.

You seem to have an issue with using performances from the past to evaluate the here and now. The reason I’m not banging the Pat Burrell drum just yet is that there’s a mountain of evidence saying that he’s not very good on defense. Or that he’s been awful for the past 2 years in the AL. You can’t deny those things. Burrell could very well turn out to be an awesome pick-up, but I’m cautious.

If you want to mistake my cautiousness (or others) for negativity, that’s not my problem. Are we supposed to love every move, every player? That seems kinda boring. I’d rather talk baseball with people who share different viewpoints.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on Jun 14, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

"Disdain"

It may be an overly negative word, but I can remember suggesting more playing time for Torres and Uribe and getting told they had no idea what they were talkign about.

As far as Burrell goes, I agree that caution is in order, but “awful for the past two years” is slightly overstated. He had 572 PAs in TB over 1.15 seasons.

Your opinion that Burrell might or might not be an awesome pick up is not what I’m talking about. I was referring to others’ snark about Burrell only belonging on the bench.

Believe me, I appreciate discussion and varying opinions. I tire though of my opinions are "stupid"o that I’m “f**king stupid” if I don’t go along with “player x sucks”.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

It may be an overly negative word, but I can remember suggesting more playing time for Torres and Uribe and getting told they had no idea what they were talkign about.

People being told that is bad regardless of their opinions, but the only thing this example shows is that people didn’t think Uribe and Torres are good, not that they didn’t like them, let alone hated them. I like Velez and I don’t think he should ever be on the team again.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 14, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Question

Is there a “magic number” of PAs that you look for in a season that turns hope into belief?

For example, at what point did Huff’s performance seem more real that “sss” fluke in your eyes?

I ask because Burrell is doing some pretty remarkable things to his season numbers in his brief stint with the Giants. Even if you discount what he’s done as just 10 games, he’s now a 103 OPS+ hitter for the 2010 season.

He’s added 138 points of OPS in just 31 PAs.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 15, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

400 PAs

TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development

by zenbitz on Jun 16, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

except maybe when Uribe messed up Sanchez’s perfect game last season

I had somehow forgotten that was Uribe. I think I replaced him with Velez in my mind.

by marcello on Jun 18, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

That works for me.

by Evan on Jun 18, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is very true and gave me a laugh.

The first few bullet points, however, also apply to Rowand, Renteria, Bengie, DeRosa, Sanchez, Garko, Wellemeyer, Aurilia, Jose Castillo, and so on. The cynical, pessimistic groupthink has been right more often than it’s been wrong, alas.

by Evan on Jun 14, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was sure skeptical. But I don’t think that was an unreasonable position to take.

"Career potential: situational lefty." Situation: Ragnarok, bases loaded, Odin at the plate. You know who's getting the call.

-Adopted Giant: Dan Runzler

by Alex_Lewis on Jun 22, 2010 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

PROVE IT

Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, who has been resurrected and has returned to..(reads)...Fresno? And is also an outfielder now.

Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.

by scout6 on Jun 14, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Post lacks negativity.

Sometimes, there's a man...well, he's the man for his time and place.

by I'm_a_Man on Jun 13, 2010 12:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Aadik provided that...see above

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 13, 2010 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Great, now we’re going to get shut out tomorrow.

by Natto on Jun 13, 2010 5:51 PM PDT reply actions  

We are facing a guy who has a 5.54 ERA this season (0-2) with a career 1-7 and 6.05 ERA.

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 13, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

We’re screwed.

El Person!!!

by El Person on Jun 13, 2010 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

We're facing a rookie making his 2nd career start on Tuesday

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jun 13, 2010 6:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Giants are lucky the miss Kevin Millwood: 0-8 5.16

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 13, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think he did.

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 13, 2010 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yup

Yet another reason to hate the Phillies.

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Jun 14, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

You cannot hate the Phillies for 2008 and 2009 NLCS

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 14, 2010 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure

But Shawn “Unfortunate Rectum Face” Victorino. I rest my case.

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Jun 18, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

You accept that when the team beats the Dodgers two years in a row to prevent LA from going to the World Series.

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 18, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but it actually kind of sad. When Doc had his perfect game, they where talking about how this could be the best pitching performance by a Phillie since THAT no hitter.

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Jun 15, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was at that game. It was brutal.

by Monkeyking42 on Jun 19, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Honestly...

I have to believe Millwood’s just kinda given up. His numbers at the beginning of the year were sparkly, but he kept getting Cained. I watched him as a potential for my Pokemonz team, but decided that the O’s offense was too epic fail, and I already have Cain, I didn’t need any more ‘Cained’ outings than I already had.

I actually feel bad for the guy. I believe if he were traded somewhere who actually has an offense that wins/produces, he might be a really good 4/5 option. His GO/AO ratio is still pretty good last time I checked, although his K/BB isn’t ever too shiny shiny.

Uncle Sabes...How much longer til we get there?

by NorCalGiant on Jun 13, 2010 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

There was some talk that he may be somewhat difficult to move

because he’s making 9 mill this year

Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster

by Gobroks on Jun 13, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice.

What I like about this, is that it uses relatives as opposed to absolutes. And they are team stats as opposed to individual stats. Team stats seem to correlate more readily with where one’s team stands on the "Good, Rancid, Mediocre ranking system, or more commonly referred to as the standings

Simple straight forward numbers, are good for the average guy like myeself who is more interested in the context of ‘where is my team compared to everybody else, where have they been, and where are they likely to be at the end of the season’. A simple set of relative numbers like this can give a person some insight into how a team is playing, in addition to relative movement in the standings. Especially when playing outside of the division and particularly during the Interleague Spring Training Redux every June. So it gives us something else to compare and contrast.

One small thing. It is that the common perception is that ERA , and its ancestor ERA, do not take into consideration defense. I might add while runs scored as result of errors do not count against ERA in the particular inning that the error(s) were committed, errors usually result in higher pitch counts, and more importantly higher stress innings and pitching from the stretch instead of the windup. Not a big thing in the big picture, generally speaking I believe that teams with good ERA’s and ERA will also have good team defense as expressed in both team fielding percentage and in team UZR (for all of its deficiencies which are well noted here) which are the only two measurements with which I am somewhat familiar, and as rudimetry as the metrics of defense are.

One of my favorite computations taken from a baseball card is the Average Runs Created. Runs + RBIs divided by 2. The rationale being that a team run generally requires two things. A runner has to score. A hitter has to drive the runner in. ( I am somewhat familiar with the more traditional Runs Produced of Runs + RBIs – Homeruns and the resultant debates)

I like the baseball card stat because it equates directly to team runs scored when the totals for all the players are added up and does not minimize the impact of the homerun which gets credit for 1/2 run for an RBI as well as 1/2

by E Ticket on Jun 14, 2010 9:47 AM PDT reply actions  

" ….I like the baseball card stat because it equates directly to team runs scored when the totals for all the players are added up and does not minimize the impact of the homerun which gets credit for 1/2 run for an RBI as well as 1/2 Run Scored. It isn’t completely accurate because there are occasions where a run will score without an RBI being credited… wild pitch, double play, passed ball, or a run scoring because of an error.

by E Ticket on Jun 14, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're absolutely right about defense affecting ERA

The errors run up pitch counts and the plus defensive plays help keep earned runs down.

The “relative to the league” is exactly what I was trying to look at and compare. I think what easily gets lost is that every team has its frustrations, areas of weakness, etc. This comparison shows that we’re not so bad off.

The big thing it points to is that every team has their troubles. If I remember from when I looked at this, St. Louis and Altanta are the only teams above league average in both ERA+ and OPS+.

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 14, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was glancing at the standings the other day and noticed that the Dodgers might be the flukiest team in the league. Not only is their Plus-Plus tied for 9th (thanks Goofus), but their run differential is plus-2. You read that right: plus two. Yet they the third-best record in the league. Unsustainable much?

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Jun 14, 2010 2:26 PM PDT reply actions  

You’d be surprised how far being evil can carry a team.

I feel prickishly demanding!

I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.

by giantsfansince1981 on Jun 14, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I totally misread “flukiest.”

Bruce Bochy would like you to look at the career numbers and stop complaining.
Bob Howry's #1 (and only) fan!!!
The Merkin Valdez of McCovey Chronicles!!!!!!

by cheno on Jun 20, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jun 20, 2010 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Giants Ranked #1 In NL In Rainman's Favorite Team Stat: Bat/Fld WAR Plus Pitching WAR

10.9 Bat/Fld WAR second to only the Reds.

8.9 Pitching WAR second to only the Rockies.

Yes we trail the Reds by 2.1 WAR in Bat/Fld but we lead then by 2.7 WAR in Pitching.
Yes we trail the Rockies by 2.1 WAR in Pitching but we lead then by 5.2 WAR in Bat/Fld.

by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2010 4:29 PM PDT reply actions  

There are some issues with UZR here, though.

Do the Giants really have the best defense in the majors? The Rays, for example, seem to have better fielder at every single position, with the only exception being CF when Torres plays it.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 14, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

UZR isn’t really park adjusted on a team scale. Nether is wOBA, so I think both the Reds offense and our defense are getting park help.

Just get the damn surgery, Mark DeRosa.

by oldjacket on Jun 14, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

UZR Is Park Adjusted

You are right about wOBA not being however.

by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2010 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

UZR is only sort of park adjusted. It’s adjusted for wonky positions like LF in Fenway. It’s not park adjusted for the run environment of the park.

Just get the damn surgery, Mark DeRosa.

by oldjacket on Jun 15, 2010 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

UZR is park adjusted per field in each park

I remember MGL saying somewhere that Coors was adjusted like .9 to left and center and right (or maybe he included LCF and RCF too).

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Jun 15, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

So Cookyman's Option > Any Measured Results That Disagree

Is this an example of one not being able to reason with someone about something that someone did not use reason as the basis for his position?

by giantsrainman on Jun 14, 2010 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

That “sentence” actually made me laugh out loud. Kudos.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 15, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Gin Rummy: But nah we ain’t find ‘em. but I always say the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
Riley: What?
Gin Rummy: Simply because you don’t have evidence that something does exist does not mean that you have evidence that something doesn’t exist.
Riley: What?
Gin Rummy: What country you from?
Riley: What?
Gin Rummy: “What” ain’t no country I ever heard of. They speak english in “What”?
Riley: What?
Gin Rummy: ENGLISH, MUTHAFUCKER!! DO YOU SPEAK IT!?
Riley: Yeah!
Gin Rummy: So you understand the words I’m sayin’ to you.
Riley: Yeah!…
Gin Rummy: Well what I’m sayin’ is that there are known knowns and that there are known unknowns but there’s also unknown unknowns. Things we don’t know that we don’t know.
Riley: …What?

by marcello on Jun 18, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

That might be the new tagline of the site.

by Grant Brisbee on Jun 21, 2010 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

According to defensive efficiency (BP's)

The Giants have had the best defense in the majors thus far. Their park-adjusted DE is off the charts too, but I feel a little suspicious about that.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Jun 15, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

They’re only 3rd in DRS, though. And the Rays are first. My eyes were right!

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 15, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

DE is basically (1 – BABIP).
So “it might be indicative of good defense”

TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development

by zenbitz on Jun 16, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't there a fundamental issue with Team fielding WAR = sum (individual fielding WAR)?

As I understand UZR, the premise is that you work out how balls have been fielded (given distributions etc) by a particular fielder, then work out how many more or less that is when compared to an average fielder. You then work out how many runs those extra bases/fewer outs would cost you – using an MLB average offence, pitching and defence. You have to use MLB averages so you can make a fair comparison between players – two identical CF should have the same UZR over the long term.

There’s the flaw. Let’s say Torres’ UZR/150 is 20: that’s saying that if Torres hadn’t fielded those balls, then an MLB average defence would conceed an extra 20 runs. But a better than average defence would conceed less: if we believe fangraphs stat for the Giants as a team, they conceed at least 10% less on average based purely on defence. So Torres’ defence actually only saves the Giants 18 runs. Similarly, Torres excellent defence lowers the effectiveness of his teammates’ excellent defence.

The problem is further worsened by the Giants excellent pitching. Again, using fangraphs, the pitching is responsible for another 10% reduction in runs. So again, any ball that Torres were to fail to field would be penalised less harshly, because his teammates are likely to pick him up.

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 16, 2010 2:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, and also, I’m not quite sure how UZR scales itself for number of balls fielded. Imagine (just for argument) if Torres and Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates both fielded 100% of balls hit towards them in a season. Presumably, UZR for each would be the same, as UZR is meant to compare fielders, right? Except McCutchen will probably field far more balls, because (a) the Giants have better strikeout pitchers, resulting less balls in play as a percentage of PAs, and (b) because the Giants face less batters. So far this season, that’s an extra 225ish balls in play for Pittsburgh (roughly 10% more), and that gap’s only going to get bigger.

So overall, even if we agree that the Giants do truly have a combined individual fielding WAR of 3 (and I’m very much not sold on that due to sample size / what my eyes tell me), I would argue that the resulting actual team fielding WAR is about 30% lower than that – 10% each for:

- reduced penalty/benefit of each non-fielded ball, due to fielding;
- reduced penalty/benefit of each non-fielded ball, due to pitching;
- reduced number of balls to field, due to pitching.

(assuming I understand UZR).

by sarf_london_niner on Jun 16, 2010 4:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Can anyone tell me . . .

. . . if UZR takes any accout of DPs (and TPs)? A double play is effectively a retrospective out made in the field on a batter whose ball was not fielded. (I know, I know, BBs and HBPs and CIs complicate the DP issue further, but the base question remains.)

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jun 23, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

It does.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Jun 23, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you.

Professional baseball analyst since 1980.

by owlcroft on Jun 23, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure Burrell, Sanchez and Posey are hitting at unsustainable paces

The pitching is looking pretty unsustainable too (see Zito, Sanchez, Cain).

/back in shell

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Jun 16, 2010 12:28 AM PDT reply actions  

But weren't they already supposed to regress?

Remember, the Giants pitching was supposed to regress this year. We are nearly half way through the year and the pitching is just as good as it was last year.

I am in partial agreement with some of Goofus’ complaints up-thread. When do we stop expecting the regression? Never?

The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
"I told the family lovingly slide"

by thehavenot on Jun 19, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Zito’s doing it right now.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Jun 23, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Right now?

Did the game start?

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 23, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was referring to regressing as a state of being, not as an act in the present tense.

Last 7 starts

After his torrid first half of the season (so far, that would be his first 7 starts), he has been pretty much what we have come to expect from Zito over the second half of the season (the next 7 starts).

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Jun 23, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

And I was making a joke

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 24, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Darn it.

That chasm was deep.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Jun 24, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

What I got from this post is....

The Natinals are pretty okay. Good for them. They deserve some success, if only as payback for the strike shortened season. Strasburg rules.

Also, the Giants rule. Suck it Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, D-Backs and Cardinals just for good measure.

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx

by RDreamer on Jun 18, 2010 10:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Love the third person reference in the title

    * Jerry: I don’t know how you can eat that spicy chicken.
    * George: George likes spicy chicken.
    * Jerry: What’s that?
    * George: I like spicy chicken.
    * Jerry: No, no. You said “GEORGE likes spicy chicken.”
    * George: No, I didn’t!
    * Elaine: Yes, you did. You said “George likes spicy chicken.”
    * Jerry: You’re turning into Jimmy!
    * George: (irritated) George is getting upset!

I like my beer cold ... my TV loud ... and my romosexuals flaming.--Homer Simpson

by nogooddeed on Jun 18, 2010 9:51 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m not a big Seinfeld fan but I remember this.

Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Jun 18, 2010 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

The only key stat at the end of the season is wins and losses

The other stats help a good management team to focus
on areas to improve without weakening areas that are
strong. You can have the best OPS plus but if you do not
have enough WINS (plus or minus) to get into the playoffs,
it does not matter. Plain, and simple and of course self
evident to most, and even a higher percentage of giants fans.

by bradleybear on Jun 18, 2010 10:34 PM PDT reply actions  

You’re joking, right?

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Jun 19, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Meh.

Is if funny coincidence that this hot streak has accrued when the team has usually hit at least 1 HR? Or it is funny it has happened outside the division?

This is not meant at a reflection on the stats Gooffus cites to stat this conversation just that in the least dozen or so games the finally succeeded in trading some of the team speed of ’09’s squad for a bit of SLG and at least things are interesting (offensiviely) because we get to see if the “new” ways can continue.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at: 39%

Spoiler: Grumpy older Giants fan is Grumpy.

by daveinexile on Jun 20, 2010 5:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

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