Quick starts and slow fades

Breaking: The Giants aren’t going to end the season with four starting pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. Bengie Molina isn’t going to finish the year with a .343 batting average, just as Edgar Renteria isn’t going to cruise into free agency as a .320 hitter. Guillermo Mota might not keep his 0.96 ERA up. Further updates as events warrant.

Fine. So there are a few players on the team who aren’t going to sustain their lofty performances to this point. On the other side, Mark DeRosa should be a better hitter than Tim Lincecum, John Bowker will eventually prove the haterz wrong, and Brandon Medders isn’t going to allow an average of two hits for each inning he pitches. Well, that last one might not be true, but work with me here.

But the more important point is that even though the Giants have benefited from a surprising number of hot hitters and pitchers, it isn’t necessarily leading to as many wins as it should. If you go by Pythagorean W-L, a team that allows 70 runs while scoring 108 in 24 games should be 17-7, not 14-10. So while the team ERA should climb up from 2.72 and the team on-base percentage probably isn’t going to stay at .343, the overall team winning percentage is more sustainable than it might seem. I think. Maybe. I hope. Work with me here.

This is all a long-winded prelude to a comment starter: Pick the fast-starter who you think will come closest to sustaining his performance, and also pick the one who is most likely to be a mirage. The list of fast starters is loosely defined as a) anyone in the lineup who isn’t Mark DeRosa or Aaron Rowand, b) anyone in the rotation who isn’t Todd Wellemeyer, and c) anyone in the bullpen who isn’t Brandon Medders. This team is getting a ton of great performances right now. At least a couple have to stick, right? Right? I think. Maybe. I hope. Work with me here.

Give me Aubrey Huff as the sustainable hitter, with Sergio Romo as the sustainable pitcher. It’s not like Huff is setting the world on fire, but his performance so far is close to a best-case performance for him that is still grounded in reality. And unfortunately timed late-inning extra-base hits aside, Romo is just this awesome. He just struck you out with a frisbee slider as you were reading this.

And while I’m thrilled that Nate Schierholtz is hitting so well after being blocked year after year by a parade of heavy-hitting outfielders – one slugger after another keeping the lineup afloat and the young outfielder in Fresno or on the bench – he probably has the furthest to fall, so I’ll sell a bit of my Schierholtz futures. If he does have a breakout season, it’s going to be a lot closer to .300/.340/.440 than to .345/.419/.509. With the defense that Schierholtz has been playing, though, it’s not as if I’ll complain if he dips a little.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Join McCovey Chronicles

You must be a member of McCovey Chronicles to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at McCovey Chronicles. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker