Lincecum Pitch-Type Graphs

by xanthan on May 27, 2010 6:55 PM PDT

Hey guys, I thought I would share these since I think they are kinda neat. I've been working with some PFX data and I wanted to try and produce a graph that shows what pitch a pitcher throws by the count. I decided that Tim Lincecum would be an interesting choice to use.

The 2010 graph doesn't include his last start against Washington, when I pulled the data the game was still ongoing. Still, I think they show a pitcher that's really gotten comfortable with his changeup.

For example: In 2009 when Lincecum got 2 strikes on a batter, he was going to throw the change 35-40% of the time. This year he's expanded his changeup usage even further -- throwing it almost 50% of the time when he's got 2 strikes. I'm in the process of pulling the 2007-08 data to look at those years as well. I'll post them when I get them produced, but it might be a couple of days.

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I’ll also note that I lumped all of his fastballs into one category (FB) since he throws with both a 2-seam and 4-seam grip. Additionally, I’m using the standard MLBAM pitch classifications and they’ve proven to be not-so-accurate for certain pitches. Ideally, I’d like to go back through the data and sort the pitches out myself but I just don’t have the time for that right now. I think this gets me close enough for the time being.

Ask me about my blog.

by xanthan on May 27, 2010 7:00 PM PDT reply actions

I had heard a while back that Timmy doesn’t throw a 4-seamer because he can’t control it.

Also, I’ve been trying to do my own PFX parsing but can’t find a good guide to what certain variables are, the names can be a bit cryptic.

Either way, very nice work.

by TwoBagger on May 28, 2010 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Very neat indeed.

Thanks computer.

by Ltisme on May 27, 2010 7:48 PM PDT reply actions

I must say...

1001101011010101010101101101101101010101001001010110101010

Hitting 74 on the radar gun but hitting my spots.

by VidaWantsYourCar on May 27, 2010 8:37 PM PDT reply actions

You made these?

These are cool. I’m surprised that he has gone to his slider on 3-0 since that seems to be his least favorite pitch.

Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry

by GrahamCrakalaka on May 27, 2010 10:50 PM PDT reply actions

Maybe trying to combat the predictability of the fastball 3-0.

Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on May 28, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions

And likely only to dangerous power hitters who might get a green light, guys he’d rather walk than groove one to.

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on May 28, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions

very cool graphs!

may I suggest adding number of occurrences of each count (under each column)? It doesn’t change the conditional probabilities of each count but I am kind of curious in the marginal too.

Proud adopted parent of the ball dudes, who have grounded into 109 fewer double plays than the Giants.

by DJ Tofu on May 27, 2010 11:18 PM PDT reply actions