Understanding the Sabean Process

Isn’t the story that Tidrow wouldn’t even let Sabes watch Timmy pitch? It sounds like Tidrow was willing to go to the mat for the Timmy.

Also, I intrinsically agree with your premise. Well done.

*potential for injuries not included

That makes sense. Although, in addition to being risk-averse, Sabean doesn’t seem to be good at evaluating even veteran talent.

I seem to think that with Sabean its not that he is risk averse, per-se, its that he is averse to risking his reputation on an unestablished player. I think he explains away injuries to old useless over-the-hill-good-for-nothing-sacks-of syphillitic shit as random acts of bad luck visited upon the Giants by the evil baseball gods;

And I think stupid fanboy owners go along with it as long as the fans keep turning those stiles. Veteran Savvy provides more false hope than unproven names who barely rate a baseball card. If a rookie fails, Sabean gets the heat. If Sanchez, and the rest go down for a few days, its the baseball gods, bad luck, part of the process, karma, what the fuck ever silly thing that pops into the PR machine at Willie Mays Plaza and reported out in the mainstream media outlets become the substance of the daily Giants talking points as repeated endlessly on knbr, sfgate, bayarea newsgroup, and comcast.

He has built this team on the 1960-80s model of expansion. Proven vets in position player slots, one or two name pitchers and a constant shuffling since the names change 2 or 3 times a game; every game, so there is little risk that he has a whole lot of his reputation riding on any one player;except when he makes a big fuckup like the Zito or Armando signing.

. . . your example does not demonstrate risk-averse behavior. The net probable outcome of such a trial, if repeated (we aren’t talking one-off cases here, but a pattern) would net even whichever way, at $50—sometimes $0 and sometimes $100, but a coin is (supposedly) the paradigm of a 50-50 deal, so the takings would average to $50. So why not take the sure $50 every time?

To demonstrate risk aversion, the “certain” outcome needs to be of lesser value than the “expected value” of the possible ones. (A risk-averse person would not give Wimpy the hambuger.)

. . . that all this, as fairly accurately described above, would be unsustainable behavior in a market with a strong, independent sporting press? It’s decades now since someone first remarked that a dead fish would be embarrassed to be wrapped in the Chronicle. Just a thought . . . .

No matter that any rigorous study shows that, in general, you should be going for it. Think of how it’ll look if you don’t make it. PUNT!!!!

I think the real reason he’s failed recently isn’t that this has always been a failure of a strategy, it’s that it’s been a failure of a strategy since drug testing was implemented.

Is this because the Giants were a steroid team? No, I don’t think so. I think it’s because the Giants were an amphetamine team.

Just a somewhat unfounded theory, but it was telling that for a while Sabes “big name” signings (Alfonzo, Benitez, and later Rowand) were terrible, while the HAW HAW GINATS R TEH OLDZ signings fairly consistently experienced bounceback seasons with the Giants. Then suddenly, around 2006, that “lightning in a bottle” stopped showing up. My guess? The old guys couldn’t “find the magic” because they were forced to age like everybody else…

I think Sabean really has always been trying to jimmy the market, which is, in concept, good GMing; I just think he’s, well, old and stubborn and his “tricks” don’t work anymore.

. . . the scenes in Moneyball in which Billy Beane is stealing Sabean blind? Quite a hoot. “Sabes!”

. . . on page 195.

“Sabes,” Billy says, “I’m not asking for much here.” . . . Sabean is the master of the dry hump. Sabean is always expressing what seems like serious interest in a player, but when it comes time to deal, he becomes less serious. . . .

(The “last 9 innings” remark was directed to Steve Phillips, another sucker he conned in the same deal.)

is fine, commendable, even in everyday life. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense in a winner take-all game like major league baseball, though.

In fact, I wrote a similar fanpost about nine months ago.

This is the mistake that bad general managers have been making for years – significantly overestimating the reliability of veteran players. It’s the kind of misunderstanding of projected player performance that Phillips mastered as a GM. Steve thinks prospects gets GMs fired, but in reality, its misinformed opinions about how to build a baseball team, much like the one he’s espousing right now.

From this

I think he’s actually good at valuing pitching by himself. I think the fact that he’s traded away pitching prospects and none of them have amounted to much (besides future HOFer, Joe Nathan), or will amount to much (Alderson, etc.) shows that he knows longevity when he sees it.