I am 90% certain that the Giants brass will make the wrong move.  The right move is to option Velez.  Indeed, I'll go one step further - it's a no-brainer.  Why?  Easy.  He does not know how to play baseball.  forget the stats for a minute (I shudder to think of the responses on this board to that comment :) )  although they are bad enough.  Let me give you the rationale from simply watching the guy play:

1.  The swing.  Velez has one great physical attribute.  His speed.  Yet - how often do you see him leg out an infield hit?  Not very often.  Certainly not at the level one would expect from a guy with this speed.  Why?  Check out how he finishes his stroke.  Essentially tied up in the batters box after he takes that ridiculously long swing.  Yes, as Krukow loves to say - "he will surprise you once in a while with his power."  Great.  In 500 AB's the guy may hit 10 HR's.  I harken back to the days of the running Cardinals.  Vince Coleman was a guy with blinding speed.  When he broke in, he swung for the fences too much for Whitey Herzog's liking.  He set up a system - every fly ball Coleman hit, he was fined for.  Coleman became effective by using his speed - infield hits, walks and a tone of steals.  Velez will never do any of that.

2.  Base running:  The Dodger debacle.  I'm sure it was discussed, but his sheer lack of baseball knowledge was emphasized in the Dodger series.  No one out, he's on second and there is a runner on first.  3-2 pitch he's running.  Passed ball.  he tries to score.  Called out.  Took the team out of a rally.  In the first inning.  Forget the fact that he may have been safe (bad call).  He had no business running in the first place.

3.  Defense.  I don't know his UZR.  And I don't care.  Forget the bobble against SD in the leftfield corner.  That happens.  The bonehead mistake came later that inning.  Runner on third, one (or no) outs Ball to left center.  He almost collides with Torrez.  It's not the near miss.  Its the fact tht he was even in the vicinity.  Torrez was in the far better position to make a throw to the plate, as he was coming in and would not have to turn to make the throw.  Velez getting in his way made it impossible for Torrez to get anything on his thro

With Downs able to play middle infield, there is no rational reason for keeping Velez and optioning Bowker.  Yes the Giants need some speed.  But Velez isn't baseball fast.  By that I mean he doesn't use his speed.  So honestly, he has to be the one to be optioned.

My guess - the Giants will option Bowker.  Sigh.