Comparing Cain, Hernandez, and Verlander
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 1:06 AM PDT
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PrintWe love Matt Cain. Some of us more than others. He's a little too beefy for me, but whatever floats your boat. Lust-worthiness aside, we can all agree that Cain is a good pitcher. And now that he has a revised contract, we can look at how he and the contract compare to a couple of contemporaries: Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.
While doing some reading recently, I thought the immediate comparison between these three was a bit lazy considering that Hernandez and Verlander just signed contracts this winter. But in reality (as opposed to the Looney Toons cartoon that is my mind), the three pitchers are very similar:
- Each began his Major League career in 2005 and had his first full season in 2006.
- All three have started at least 30 games since 2006
- Hernandez will be 24 years old this year, Verlander will be 27, and Cain will be 26 on October 1st, just in time for him to celebrate a World Series victory later that month (or is it November now...?)
- Innings pitched; Pitches thrown:
- Cain: 872.33 IP; 14,341 Pitches
- Hernandez: 905.00; 14,115 Pitches
- Verlander: 840.00; 13,973 (+408 in postseason; 14,381 total) Pitches
- They differ in minor league totals. Cain pitched 323.66 innings, Hernandez pitched 249.00, and Verlander pitched 118.66. Verlander was the only one of the three to go to college (NERD!) where he pitched 335.00 innings.
So they are all close in age and have pitched roughly the same number of innings. For what it's worth here are their physical measurements as per Fangraphs:
- Cain: 6'3", 246 lbs.
- Hernandez: 6'3", 225 lbs.
- Verlander: 6'5", 225 lbs.
So, how about what matters: performance. I will be using Fangraphs FIP, WAR, and dollar value for the numbers below. Right now I want to limit this analysis to the years 2006-2008. This is a three year period that eliminated each player's first year which was short for each player and of varying number of innings. I am also eliminating each player's 2009 year which will become apparent later.
- Cain:
- 2006: 190.66 IP, 3.96 FIP, 3.5 WAR, $13.1M
- 2007: 200.00 IP, 3.78 FIP, 4.0 WAR, $16.5M
- 2008: 217.66 IP, 3.91 FIP, 3.7 WAR, $16.6M
- 06-08: 608.33 IP, 3.88 FIP, 11.2 WAR, $46.2M
- Hernanzez:
- 2006: 191.00 IP, 3.91 FIP, 3.8 WAR, $13.9M
- 2007: 190.33 IP, 3.75 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $16.6M
- 2008: 200.66 IP, 3.80 FIP, 3.9 WAR, $17.4M
- 06-08: 582.00 IP, 3.82 FIP, 11.8 WAR, $47.92M
- Verlander:
- 2006: 186.00 IP, 4.35 FIP, 3.1 WAR, $11.4M
- 2007: 201.66 IP, 3.99 FIP, 4.1 WAR, $16.8M
- 2008: 201.00 IP, 4.18 FIP, 3.4 WAR, $15.2M
- 06-08: 588.66 IP, 4.17 FIP, 10.6 WAR, $43.4M
It's really remarkable how similar these pitchers are for the first full three seasons. Just a guess, but I think you would be hard pressed to find three more similar pitchers during this period. Additionally, they are of similar age, body type, and have thrown basically the same amount of professional/college innings.
So... that brings us to 2009. Cain was good in 2009. His "old school" stats were better this past year. Even with a historically anemic offense, the Giants still managed to score 3.9 runs/IP for him, the best since 2006 and he won 14 games, going 14-8, for his best record in the ML yet. His ERA was 2.89, almost a run better than his previous career low. The above numbers are buoyed by a .268 BABIP and 81.6% LOB% which is 6.3% higher than his career high.
Here's how Cain's numbers in the metrics we care about compared to that for Hernandez and Verlander for 2009:
- Cain:
- 2009: 217.66 IP, 3.89 FIP, 3.6 WAR, $16.0M
- Hernanzez:
- 2009: 238.66 IP, 3.09 FIP, 6.9 WAR, $31.2M
- Verlander:
- 2009: 240.00 IP, 2.80 FIP, 8.2 WAR, $37.1M
We know this. Matt Cain was pretty much exactly the same pitcher he was in 2009 that he has been his whole career. He is a very good pitcher, but not a superstar like Lincecum. That is excellent; no one is begrudging him for being a good pitcher.
The thing is, Hernandez and Verlander pitched MUCH better in 2009 than they had in 2006-2008. And in 2009 they pitched better than Cain.
Up to this point, I have presented what the results are for each of these pitchers and how their respective histories make them very comparable. Three particular questions remain:
1. Why did Hernandez and Verlander have better seasons in 2009 than Cain? Why did they have a "breakout" year?
2. What do each of their peripheral stats tell us about the future for each player?
3. In the context of the recent contracts for Hernandez and Verlander, was Cain's extension a good move for the Giants?
So I kind of reach the end of my "skill-set" (NEEDS MOAR TOOLZ!!!) when it comes to predictions and utilizing peripherals to glean some sort of trend for players. I can say broadly that Cain's declining K/9 rate is not a good sign, though he has managed to reduce his BB/9 rate at the same time, so this might cancel things out. Likewise, one reason Verlander was more successful this year was his 10.09 K/9 rate which was almost 2 K/9 higher than his previous career high. His fastball also regained the velocity he lost in 2008 (and then some), so I'm pretty sure that Bumgardner should at the very least become Facebook friends with him. I think both the increased K-rate and re-finding of velocity are unusual, but probably not unheard of. Hernandez's K/9 and BB/9 did not change dramatically, but his HR/9 dropped from a career low of 0.76 to 0.57, which I think accounts for most of the change in his FIP. I don't know enough about him to know whether this is sustainable.
I think it would be awesome for somebody to expand on the above paragraph, looking into all the peripherals for these three players for a sort of Part 2 of this analysis. Like I said, it's a little over my head.
How about the contracts? The Giants clearly made a wonderful decision to sign Matt Cain to a long-term deal early in his career (hindsight being 20/20 and all). Here is how his contract looked prior to Sunday:
- 2007: $0.4M
- 2008: $0.7M
- 2009: $2.65M (+$0.2M performance bonus vested for 210.00+ IP)
- 2010: $4.25M (+$0.4M performance bonus for 210.00+ IP or 32 GS)
- 2011: $6.25M (Club option, which could vest based on some stuff that I don't know, but was apparently likely to vest unless he got hurt. Also the value could go up to $8.15M based on some more stuff that I don't know)
- Also he got a $1M signing bonus and $50k for making the All-Star team.
Here is what we know of the new contract:
- 2010: $4.25M
- 2011: $8.00M
- 2012: $15.00M
- Total = 3 years, $27.25M. 3 year average: $9.08M.
Basically, the new contract awarded Cain with a guaranteed 2011 for the same money, and a guaranteed 2012 for a lot of money.
Meanwhile Hernandez and Verlander signed new contracts within a couple of weeks of each other this winter:
Hernandez:
- 2010: $6.50M
- 2011: $10.00M
- 2012: $18.50M
- 2013: $19.50M
- 2014: $20.00M
- Total = 5 years, $78.00M + $3.5M signing bonus = $81.50M. Average with bonus = $16.30M
Verlander:
- 2010: $6.75M
- 2011: $12.75M
- 2012: $20.00M
- 2013: $20.00M
- 2014: $20.00M
- Total = 5 years, $80.00M + $0.5M signing bonus = $80.50M. Average with bonus = $16.10M
So, after all this shit that you have read, you probably want an answer. Was Cain's contract good for the Giants? Answer: it depends, I don't know, and sure why not.
I would be a little wary of giving a 5-year contract to any pitcher, so I like that the Giants didn't go crazy like Seattle and Detroit did. And if Cain continues to be the same pitcher he has been from 2006-2009, then 2010-2011 continues to be a steal. 2012 is a little more uncertain. But there is loads of uncertainty that year with the Maya calendar ending and all, so who cares. Off hand, I would say that $15M in 2012 is too much, but not WAY too much. I also am not quite sure why Cain was offered what likely amounts to a one year extension. I'm sure the Giants have some reason that makes little sense. Bottom line is that I like Matt Cain and I'm glad he's around a while longer. Will he get better or worse and will this contract be positive or negative? I guess we will just have to wait and see. What do you think now that you know the above? Thanks for reading.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 1:07 AM PDT reply actions
Verlander added 2 MPH to his fastball last year, while improving his control. Don’t know how he did that.
I was promised lasagna.
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His mechanics were out of whack in 08. Which was cause for his poor year and lesser fastball. 09’ his fastball averaged 95, just as it did in 05 and 06.
same way Pablo is about to hit .425 with 82 homeruns. duh.
Where's Perry?
by Bballpitcher2 on Apr 3, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Do me a favor
As I’m trying to learn what for me are new stats. What is FIP and WAR.
Thanks. As for Verlander picking up a couple miles on his fastball I think he had some arm problems in the past, so perhaps he’s back to full strength. Better control with more velocity may not be that surprising. With the fastball back to “full strength”, confidence grows and he doesn’t have to worry about being so fine. Just a thought.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
Proud parent of the new dominant pitching sensation out of San Diego State University.
I’ve always had the impression that Cain’s stuff was not quite as highly regarded as the other two guys’, and it seems that they’ve finally pulled ahead performance-wise as well.
Cain and Verlander are high-strike fly-ball types, while Hernandez gets ground balls. I wonder if that distinction affects their long-range forecasts one way or the other.
I do think Cain has room to get better than he is now; his command still isn’t that great.
Hernandez & Verlander were both up for arbitration when they signed their big extensions, while Cain was already signed to a cheap deal. So they had more leverage — they were going to get paid a bundle anyway.
The big question is whether Sabean would have been better off throwing more money at Cain to lock him up for an extra year or two. My guess is that the team is better off this way — a lot can happen in three years, after all — but if Cain’s still as good then as he is now, and if the salary scale inflates as Sabean seems to think it will, then we may look at this one-year extension as a missed opportunity.
And a footnote: while looking up Verlander’s contract, I realized that in 2010 the Tigers will be paying a total of $34.5 million to Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson.
I thought Schulman’s blog on the financial repurcussions of this was interesting. Come 2012 they’ll be paying $79.5 million on Cain, Lincecum, Zito, Affeldt, Wilson and Rowand. That’s not taking into account (because it’s so difficult to put a number on) Panda’s first arb-eligible contract. That means they really can’t afford anymore $9mil Renteria type contracts, and even the $3 mil Huff contracts are going to be hard to fit in the budget. The roster and bench are going to need to be as homegrown and cheap as conceivably possible for these contracts to work out.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Man, that’s ugly.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
And Randy Johnson isn’t even on the team anymore.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 29, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Considering Tim is not signed for 2012...
I wonder where Hank got that 79.5 number from. I mean, if you are going to throw .5’s out there, it better be actual amount and not an estimate.
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by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 29, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, obviously. I meant to note that. I think he just threw out the possibility of a $20 mil paycheck for Timmy. He also noted that they could back opt out of the $5 mil owed Affeldt in that season, so that’s a softer figure than the .5 makes it look. But, from the larger view, even subtracting Affeldt and giving and assuming a smaller paycheck for Lincecum (15 mil?), you’re still looking at the neighborhood of $70 mil for 5 players and to assume less than that would be to assume a serious regression/injury from Timmy, which probably shoots the team’s chances of competing anyway.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Wow, that’s some nice editing there, Rog. Let’s just shove all my potential word choices in there and let the readers choose their faves.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I agree also think so with this concur.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 29, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I was knew believed sure you would.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Look one year earlier - 2011
Rowand – 12; DeRosa – 6; Sanchez – 6; Lincecum – 14; Cain – 8; Zito – 18.5; Wilson – 6.5; Affeldt – 4.5
8 players = $75.5 Mil
With payroll not up as much as the projected 2012, we’re just as stuck next year as we are in 2012.
Lots of young players have to come through – I think our entire bullpen outside of Wilson and Affeldt next year will be making the league minimum.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
This is also assuming there isn’t a trade before then. I never expected either Zito or Rowand to play the entire length of their contracts with the Giants, and once they get down to two years or less, I expect to see them on the market. The Giants might have to eat some money to get it done, but they wouldn’t be spending the entire amount owed to either of them.
by crazedcrustacean on Mar 29, 2010 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I will be shocked if, come 2012 or so, either of those players can be given away without covering almost every penny of their salaries. You’d have to eat half or more just to trade them now.
Awesome post.
The one thing that you left out is that Matt Cain leads Verlander and Hernandez in Being Matt Cain (BMC%), which is crucial in determining his value.
Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.
Yea, Matt has always had an extremely high BMC%.
by deuce deuce on Mar 29, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the positive feedback (so far!)
Btw, full disclosure:
I’m not sure I did the three year (06-08) averages for FIP correctly. I just averaged the FIPs for those three years! That’s probably not correct, but seeing as how similar the years are for each player in just about every way, I don’t think it will make that much difference.
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Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
Me
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 10:28 AM PDT reply actions
it’s not a big deal but to get it correct, you would weight each year by IP. If a player has a FIP of 2.00 in 100 innings one year and a FIP of 3.50 in 200 innings the next year, the overall FIP would be 3.00.
(2.00 * 100 + 3.50 * 200)/300 = 3.00
300 is the total innings
by microwave donut on Mar 29, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, that is more or less what I thought. As I said the IP for them is so similar that it probably doesn’t make a difference, but maybe I will edit this later this afternoon. Thanks for the input.
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Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
Me
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Btw,
My coworker microwaved an unripened banana the other day claiming that it would ripen that sucker right up.
It didn’t.
He said it tasted sort of like a potato. So I think you may have made the right choice with the donut.
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Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
Me
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
When I was a kid I put mexican jumping beans in the microwave.
Hey, mom told me I had to warm them up!
by microwave donut on Mar 29, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Correcting Your Math Errors - You Double Counted Hernandez's And Verlander's Signing Bonuses
In both Hernandez’s and Verlander’s contracts the signing bonuses ($3.5M and $0.5M respectively) were already included in the contract totals of $78M and $80M respectively. (3.5 + 6.5 +10.0 +18.5 + 19.5 +20.0 = 78.0 and 0.50 + 6.75 +12.75 +20.00 +20.00 +20.00 = 80.00).
Ok, that’s not the way I read it, but it’s really neither here nor there. Thanks for the clarification.
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Dear Internet,
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Just Do The Math
This is not a matter of opinion it is a matter of fact (math).
by giantsrainman on Mar 29, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Man, your tone is just awesome.
I think it is a matter of reading comprehension, which I am admitting that I may have made a mistake on.
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
This Matt Cain Contract Is A Great Contract For The Giants
The additional risk is small and his first FA year is being purchased at below market cost and without having to commit to any other years like both the Mariners and Tigers did. There is just no logical basis to question this deal!
It's a good contract and a fair one
But calling it great is a vast overexaggeration
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
It's not really below market rate.
The market rate includes a discount of ~10% in exchange for long-term financial security. Matt Cain’s market value would sit around 16 million if he had signed a 1-year contract for 2010. Guaranteeing him that money 3 years from now brings his “market rate” for 2012 to about 14.5 million.
They’re paying Matt Cain in 2012 pretty much exactly what the market says he’s worth today. In a vacuum it’s a perfectly fine deal, but it’s disappointing that they didn’t get any kind of hometown discount.
There is just no logical basis to question this deal!
That’s a little over the top don’t you think? His first year of FA is barely below market cost and with the Giants dealing from a position of strength, I do think they slightly overpaid. Both Hernandez and Verlander were going into arbitration so the teams either had to take them year-to-year or make a long-term deal. Cain is sitting there with one guaranteed year and a second that I guess will likely vest. They didn’t need to offer him so much money as he was hanging around for two more years. I think one could make a logical argument for both sides, or something in between.
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Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 2:45 PM PDT reply actions
Crap
reply fail to rainman
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Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 29, 2010 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Matt Cain no longer weighs 246
That was his 2008 weight, last year he was 225.
I’m new to this FIP stat.
from what i saw, cains WHIP and ERA, and k per 9….
only thing bad was his HR/9?
Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!
FIP takes HR, IP, K, and BB and throws them into a formula that was created to approximate ERA while taking defense completely out of the equation.
Cain’s HR/9 is actually lower than some metrics (xFIP and others) would expect given his GB% and FB% rates, so many people say the FIP value for him is better than his true talent level.
giantsrainmain just posted a fanpost by the guy who made FIP showing that pitchers can control their HR/GB rate, so FIP for Cain may actually be accurate. Mathy, but something to look at.
Bottom line: think of it as how well the pitcher did on his own, without the defense helping or hurting him.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Thank you. It sounds like a useful metric.
but my question…how exactly does it factor out all the noise/defense of league average compared to his teams defense?
Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!
It takes defense out of the equation completely.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
I know, but how exactly?
Before i trust a stat (not that i won’t trust this one) i just want to see exactly how its formulated.
Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!
I can give you the equation, it’s pretty simple.
(13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP
I believe you add a constant to make it approximate ERA, then voila!
I should have said that it ignores defense completely. I made it sound like they factored it out using park factors, defensive aptitude, etc, huh? Nah. That would be difficult to do, especially seeing as defensive metrics aren’t particularly precise at the moment. FIP takes the simple route.
It only pays attention to the outcomes where the ball is not put into play in the field. Thus K rate, BB rate, and HR rate are featured. That way, we can be absolutely sure that FIP is a result of batter v. pitcher and nothing else.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Ahh, now that seems like an interesting statistic.
However, it seems like it rewards high strikeout guys with worse WHIPS and ERA’s etc, than a low strikeout pitcher who has better overall statistics, but i’m guessing the home run and walk ratios balance that out if this low strikeout pitcher has good command and doesn’t allow home runs?
Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!
it seems like it rewards high strikeout guys with worse WHIPS and ERA’s etc, than a low strikeout pitcher who has better overall statistics
Well you can look at this as if the low strikeout pitcher is “better” objectively, but much of the time I think if you check out the defensive aptitude of the team playing behind the low-K pitcher with a lower ERA, they will have had more support than the high-K pitcher with a higher ERA.
The one respect that the pitcher can control to some degree on balls in play is ground ball rate vs. fly ball rate. More ground balls is, of course, desirable because it is very hard to get an extra base hit with a ground ball.
In short, FIP, as a stat, rewards high K guys because it sees them as literally more valuable than the low-K guy who has better “overall stats”, and the lower-K guy is actually a worse pitcher. It allows for greater predictive ability when you want to look at players staying with a team or changing teams and acquiring a new set of defenders.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Dregarx covered it mostly
But in simple terms:
There are really only 3 things a pitcher can do that don’t involve the defense; strike a guy out, walk a guy, and give up a home run (well, he can hit him too, but that’s mostly insignificant).
So FIP only uses those stats. That’s how it takes defense out of the equation; it doesn’t use any stats that involve defense.
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.
So FIP only uses those stats. That’s how it takes defense out of the equation; it doesn’t use any stats that involve defense.
Do you all use FIP as the most important pitching stat, or would you say it is another piece of the puzzle to fully evaluate a player, while using other metrics to fill in the blank spaces?
Nellie needs to go! but while we suffer....John Wall or Evan Turner please!
Generally, speaking, the problem with many traditional numbers is that they are too context dependent, (i.e., the number you get for a given player is dependent on the play of other members of the team.) FIP is probably the simplest pitching statistic that is (mostly) context-independent and translates into run scoring metrics. (Obviously, stuff like K/9 and BB/9 are context independent as well, hence the reason they are used by statheads as good indicators of pitching quality.)
FIP is essentially based on the idea that pitchers cannot control their oponents BABIP (batting average on balls in play). That is, they can’t control whether or not contact results in a hit or out. Generally speaking BABIP is extremely dependent on luck and defense and pitchers don’t have control over it. (Two important, but relatively minor exceptions are pitchers with excellent sinkers and knuckleballs.) Therefore, the guy who thought up FIP decided to just ignore all the balls put into play. Assuming that someone has a league average defense and average luck, a certain fractions of balls put into play will fall for hits. Therefore, when adding up all the people getting on base we can simply ignore that term, since it should be the same for every pitcher. The only remaining things a pitcher can do are, walk (or hit someone), strikeout, or give up a home run to someone. Therefore, if we simply look at how often walks, strikeouts, and homeruns result in actual runs being scored, we can simply choose the appropriate factors that should result in some combination of these numbers giving us a value for expected ERA. (In fact, it has been shown that FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than current ERA.)
Generally speaking, there are more complicated and accurate measurements. For example, one other widely available (i.e., on Fangraphs) metric is tRA. It uses batted ball types (i.e., line drive, fly ball and ground ball) to determine how many runs the pitcher should have let in. Now you might think, “you mentioned earlier that pitchers don’t control their BABIP, so why do we consider the rate of fly balls, line drives and grounders to be important, shouldn’t they be random as well?” And here you have found the problem with tRA. Pitchers don’t control their LD %, but they do control their GB %, (that’s why I mentioned that FIP has issues with pitchers that have excellent sinkers; it’s because of their extraordinarily high GB %).
There are other even more advanced metrics (look up SIERA if you are interested) that account for coupling and nonlinearities in these values and their connection to runs allowed. By coupling I’m referring to the fact that a pitcher with a very high K/9 will be less likely to give up more than one run from a HR because it’s less likely that there will be someone on base. Increasing GB % will be more useful for someone who walks a lot of people because it’s more likely to induce a double play. Nonlinearities help account for diminishing returns. For example, lowering your BB rate becomes a less and less effective way of preventing runs as you get closer to 0.
One thing I have figured out on this board
There are a lot of folks with math skills seriously beyond my own!
Yeah. I tried to argue with them and they destroyed me, so now I just stick to making TWSS jokes.
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on Mar 29, 2010 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
What I got from this fanpost
Matt Cain is about to have a crazy 7-WAR season. Science.
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.
Fangraphs posted their "analysis"
Jerks think they can put up a couple of paragraphs and get away with it.
Just kidding, it has some good stuff in it. Though if Cain is getting more hitters to swing out of the zone, why isn’t he getting more K’s?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-cain-gets-in-line-for-an-extension/
/auto-defenestrates
Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
Me
FREE KEVIN FRANDSEN!!! Member of the Frandsen 5% Club.
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 31, 2010 1:46 PM PDT reply actions
DrB sighting!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Thanks for the positive comments and the rec!
It is interesting the things you begin to see as you lay this all out. I started this by just wanted to compare these three guys because Hernandez’s and Verlander’s name kept coming up in the Cain contract talk. My preconceived notion was that they were better pitchers than Cain, and in hindsight, I think this is largely the result of Cain being on the same staff as Timmy and the breakout of Hernandez and Verlander in 2009. But as I started moving forward, it was really amazing how similar these guys are! At least through 2008.
They are so similar in fact, that I am going to reiterate what I stated above: somebody should really make a run at some of the peripheral stats to see if there is anything interesting to learn. I think we have been presented with a really interesting case study here and it could be a really great learning tool.
As I said, some things become apparent when you lay it all out. Some things that would be great for somebody on a “Part 2”:
• Explore Cain’s BABIP and LOB%. Are there patterns? Compare these to league averages and to Hernandez and Verlander.
• K/9 and BB/9 comparisons for the three and against league average.
• What do the respective home ballparks that these three pitch in tell us about them, specifically for homeruns.
• Speaking of homeruns, how about looking at the HR/FB rate for these guys and their GB/FB rate.
• Also, I am very interested in xFIP and tERA and have been trying to learn more about these measures. Looking at these two stats between the three pitchers and the league would be cool too.
Anyway, I hope this doesn’t come off as bossy or anything, I am just sort of excited by this and Cain is our guy, we should be the ones doing this sort of work.
/auto-defenestrates
Dear Internet,
Please fire Brian Sabean.
Signed,
Me
FREE KEVIN FRANDSEN!!! Member of the Frandsen 5% Club.
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 31, 2010 1:49 PM PDT reply actions
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